Crude Oil
Crude Prices Decline as Weekly EIA Inventories Unexpectedly RiseEquity Markets Navigate Macro Scenarios Amid Interest Rate and Stagflation Concerns
Equity markets navigate various macroeconomic scenarios as investors weigh the risks of prolonged high interest rates and potential stagflation.
HSBC suggests that greater clarity from the Federal Reserve, even if leaning more hawkish, could ease market pressures. Strategists believe this could lead to global equity gains in both a balanced "goldilocks" scenario and a mild stagflation scenario.
"The exact timing of Fed rate cuts should not significantly impact equities, especially if any delay is due to economic strength," they noted in a statement.
The upside for global equities both in a goldilocks and a mini stagflation scenario
Technically side:
The price dropped as we mentioned in the previous idea, and still trading at the bearish zone to reach 75.35.
so the bearish trend suggestion will continue as long as trades under 78.78 toward 76.60 and 75.35
the price will move between 80.73 and 75.35 for this week
Pivot line: 78.78
Support lines: 76.60, 75.35, 69.78
Resistance lines: 80.73, 82.24, 83.75
Crude Wednesday Pre NewsSo this is the forecast for Crude pre 1030est news.
I'm favouring some BSL to be taken if the 1hr FVG gets disrespected.
With 1hr fvg above and the BSL that is pointed out with the arrows.
If we show rejection from the 1hfvg we are currently near then PDL will be the target.
With news there is no certainty.
Overall I am HTF bearish however a sweep on BSL could be on the cards today.
OIL 20/5/2024 AnalysisDue to serious geopolitical scenario happening in the middle east usoil has a potential tendency to go long.
the Israel strike over Rafa and death of iranian president has created a serious tension in the middle east zone which can be affecting the price of black gold the oil.
Bullish targets: 79.60
79.80
80.10
bearish targets : 79.00
78.80
supports: 79.23
78.57
78.21
pivot 78.85
resistance 79:85
80.25
until and unless the pivot is not broken oil will continue buy.
boost follow and share us for more such trade analysis.
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower.
My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows.
Daily PDL
Weekly SSL
Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move.
Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity.
Lets see how this plays out !!!
USOIL enjoys relief but has an uneasy path ahead of itWest Texas Intermediate crude oil trades near $79.80 per barrel, which happens to be slightly below the 20-day SMA and the lower bound of the ascending channel. A breakout above the moving average will bolster a bullish case for oil in the short term, especially if the price closes above the 20-day SMA for multiple consecutive days; the same applies to a breakout above the channel’s lower bound. Once the 20-day SMA is broken, $80.44 and $82.25 are important resistance levels to watch out for. However, a rejection at the moving average and channel’s bound will be somewhat concerning, potentially foreshadowing further stagnation around the current price or return of weakness.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays simple support and resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Illustration 1.02
The daily MACD of USOIL is shown above. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish crossover between the MACD line and the signal line. However, it is important to emphasize that MACD is still within the bearish area below the midpoint.
Technical conditions
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Monthly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
Crude Oil Weekly Analysis- 20th to 24th May 2024
Over view
As per my previous weekly analysis, Crude oil had great ride from beginning of this year and paused from previous month. Fortunately this was necessary for having further movement. We can consider the previous month process was retracement thus by expecting further movement in upcoming weeks.
Any small bounce from this level would be great bullish indications for good week ahead.
Weekly TF
Price has exactly reacted at 0.382 Fibonacci level which is good sign of bullish continuation.
Good green candle formation after doji formation & crossed 50 EMA
Day TF
Trend: Upward range with 3 consecutive support(HL 01, HL 02, HL 03).
Now HL04 has been created and rejected at same level by creating double bottom.
Inside candle breakout has been found after creating Doji & Bullish hammer.
Price has been rejected from crucial key level
0.5 Level rejected in Fibonacci
Buy:
Entry 01:6691
Entry 02: 6962
Final Target expected: 7235
Direct Gapup/Gapdown entry should be avoided
Get confirmation from any of the leading indicators before entering trade
Kindy comment below in case of any clarification required on this particular idea.
Please follow for more ideas
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!
Crude - Testing the waters...We saw our weekly target hit yesterday,
I have a hunch as on the Daily we are constantly going back to the middle of the range that bsl of some form is in the eye of the market before we would want to move down.
I ask myself.... Why would we want to go all the way back (weekly ssl level) if we have been here and raided Sell Stops... If I was the market I would want some breakfast first before I head down for lunch and dinner right?
So for PRE 0930EST im watching to see if price respects the 4hr FVG's.
This will indicate some bsl to be taken.
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias.
We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says.
Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective.
If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
Monday Crude Oil ForecastWith no news injections today I would stay on the side lines.
We have Daily Wick level in conjunction with a 1hr FVG which if Crude Oil is substantially bearish should respect leading upto NY open and CME open.
The overall bias for me is still bearish with weekly ssl in the lower half of the charts marked with a magnet. This is the draw and what I will be waiting for / a setup to form.
You do have to stay dynamic however as the Daily candle on Friday took BSL inside of a Daily FVG.
This is respecting the bias.
EQH's where left in its wake so if the 1hr fvg and Daily wick is closed above on the 1hr TF we should start to consider that the market has other short term plans.
Stay Dynamic and if your bias doesn't match you can always stay out of the market!
Money preservation is very important.
GLGT- ;)
USOIL CAN GO FOR A DECENT RETRACEMENT WITH THIS BREAKOUTThe USOIL has recently signaled a bearish breakout from its previously bullish channel. Additionally, there's notable evidence of selling pressure around a highlighted resistance level, suggesting a reversal in trend. As a result, we anticipate a continuation of the bearish trend towards a significant support level, which has previously shown considerable buying interest.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Selling until the end of the month.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.492, MACD = -1.060, ADX = 41.641) as it got rejected on the 1D MA200 today. The longer it remains under the 1D MA50, the stronger the selling will be. Being inside a Channel Down similar to October-November 2023 that extended all the way to the 1.5 Fibonacci level, we are expecting selling for the rest of the month. The 1.5 Fib is now just over the S2 level and that is our medium term target (TP = 71.50).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Important Key Levels 🛢️
Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels
to watch on WTI Crude Oil.
Resistance 1: 80.3 - 81.9 area
Resistance 2: 83.7 - 85.6 area
Resistance 3: 86.8 - 87.6 area
Support 1: 76.8 - 77.8 area
Support 2: 75.5 - 76.3 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Crude Thursday Forecast I've been very reluctant to publish any idea's this week intra day, as I believe we are in retracement from the amount we sold off recently.
The 4hr wick CE is the point of interest I have where price respected
I am aiming for the 15min SSL to be broken and a setup form this CME open....
Lets wait and see...
Crude Oil: Potential Bullish ShiftOn 4h timeframe, WTI Crude Oil is printing a falling wedge pattern followed by Bearish Divergence on RSI. Potential Reversal Zone is predicted using the AB=CD pattern.
TRADE PLAN
Buy on breakout on previous Lower High.
Stop Loss on previous Lower Low
TP1, TP2 with RRR of 1:1 and 1:2 respectively
Crude - Pre Market Guessing.So I don't take too much of my time on the weekend trying to figure out where price is going to go as price isnt even active.
So barring any exponential moves Sunday open I am still bearish and have :
Monthly Wick CE and target 1
Weekly SSL as target 2
Pre CME open I will re analyse where the market is and publish further forecast for the day.
Crude Oil | BULLS MAY DOMINATE THE NEXT DAYSMay is not always a good month for crude oil. When you look at the last 40 years, there is a positive change rate of less than 50%.
However, Crude oil is moving to the support resistance point, and its performance in the last 8 election years, from the beginning of the may to the 21-22 of May during the election years, is 7 years positive and an average return of 12%.
That's why I'm very BULLISH on Crude oil, which is below last year's opening level and at a significant support-resistance flip point.