Don't be surprised with a $50 oil price next yearThe waves show the direction, and if this daily candle closes significantly lower than the previous low, and the red countertrend line breaks, we may witness a nice fall in the oil prices.
Of course, the OPEC may step in, but the trend is a trend.
Let me know what you think in the comments!
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
Crude Oil
Don't be surprised with a $50 oil price next yearThe waves show the direction, and if this daily candle closes significantly lower than the previous low, and the red countertrend line breaks, we may witness a nice fall in the oil prices.
Of course, the OPEC may step in, but the trend is a trend.
Stay Patient, Stay Disciplined!
Spot Crude Oil Energies Market Heist PlanHola! Ola! My Dear Robbers / Money Makers & Losers, 🤑 💰
This is our master plan to Heist Spot Crude Oil Energies Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal / Trap at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback.
Stop Loss 🛑 : Recent Swing Low using 4h timeframe
Attention for Scalpers : Focus to scalp only on Long side, If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money 💰.
Warning : Fundamental Analysis news 📰 🗞️ comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss 🚫🚏. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
💖Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan..... 🫂
OIL: Day 3, market in breakoutLooking at this chart, I can see a great potential to complete a 2 weeks dump and pump scenario, which it can end up today with the OIL major red new on calendar at 10:30am NYT.
But let's analyse this market, trying to understand what and why specific moves can happen.
Starting from the last week, Monday was a dump day and Tuesday slightly expanded the range to the downside.
Most of the week just consolidated down low without achieving to push the price lower, and Friday it was the first time in the week where we could see the market pushing higher, breaking the high of day. It doesn't necessary mean that something was going to change in the market, but for sure now also long breakout traders are involved.
Friday as well, closed in breakout short, placing the new low of week.
Monday starts the new week and we could see the price retesting the LOW, is now important to understand the behaviour of price once the market reaches levels of interests and this double bottom formation into the previous LOW it may locks the low for the entire week.
Tuesday typically expands the range, which it happened and closed in breakout long.
Today, the market looks like coiling into the current high of day/how of week and I won't be surprise to see a parabolic move!
I currently have a better long thesis pushing up back into the previous HOW, however, I cannot guess how the market will behave during the NY session.
I cannot exclude that price can break down starting a reversal process during Thursday and Friday.
For the long view I would like to see the market coiling into once of these level marked
For the short view I would like to see a market breaking down, pumping back up into the HOD during NY session for a short scalp trade.
I will update the post during the day :)
Have a good trade and for any question feel free to ask!
CRUDE OIL Long From Support! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is slowly moving
Towards the horizontal support
Level of 66.35$ but its a strong
Key level so after the retest
We will be expecting a local
Bullish rebound from support
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
WTI Crude Oil 2024: Range-Bound Trends and Key LevelsBig Picture:
WTI Crude Oil Futures prices have been largely range-bound for most of 2024 with yearly low of 62.54 and high at 81.75 defining the trading range. Analyzing the Composite Volume Profile since January 2022 reveals that 2024’s price action has been contained within the Composite Value Area High (CVAH) at $79.91 and Composite Value Area Low (CVAL) at $63.57
We further note that while there are many bearish and bullish analyses for crude oil floating from different market analysts, market auction theory and charts point towards further range bound price action for December 2024 and foreseeable 2025 ahead until proven otherwise.
OPEC+ meeting is scheduled to take place on December 5th, 2024. It was previously planned to take place on Dec 1st, 2024. The change accommodates the Kuwait Summit, with Saudi Arabia and its allies expected to discuss production quotas—a decision that could influence market dynamics.
Additionally, U.S. crude oil production in 2024 has reached record-high levels.
Geopolitical issues have not had a major impact on Crude prices as prices remain range bound. Intraday volatility remains amidst geopolitical uncertainty.
WTI Crude Oil Key Levels:
CVAH : 79.91
CVAL : 63.57
2024 Yearly Mid : 72.15
2024 Yearly Lo : 62.54
2024 CVAH : 75.60
2024 CVAL : 66.97
Market Scenarios:
Short Term Resistance (2024 Mid and CVAH) : Price movements toward the upper range (CVAH at $79.91 or $75.60) could signal buyer exhaustion, with limited upside momentum expected.
Short Term Support (CVAL and Yearly Low) : Movements toward lower levels (CVAL at $63.57 or $66.97) may indicate seller exhaustion, preventing a significant breakdown.
As crude oil remains range-bound, traders should monitor these key levels and the OPEC+ meeting outcomes for potential catalysts. Until then, the market appears set to maintain its current trading range.
Disclaimer : The views expressed are personal opinions and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Derivatives involve a substantial risk of loss and are not suitable for all investors.
Crude Oil (USOIL) Trade Setup – Key Insights & StrategyHey Traders! 👋
In this video, I dive into the current price action and trade opportunities for Crude Oil (USOIL). With the market sitting near key support levels, here's what you need to know. 📊
🔷 What’s Inside:
Analysis of FX:USOIL USOIL’s recent price movements.
Key support levels and potential breakout zones.
My trading strategy for the week ahead and how to approach the EIA report.
📌 Don’t miss these insights—they could shape your next big move!
💬 Watch now and share your thoughts in the comments below. Let’s collaborate and build smarter strategies together.
📈 Follow me for real-time updates on TradingView
Trade smart and stay ahead! 🚀
USOIL - Long Trade Idea + Full Long-Term Pattern Breakdown...In this video, I explore the long-term pattern for crude oil and how it aligns with the current long trade setup.
I also discuss potential scenarios that could unfold once this trade reaches its target. The link to the long trade idea is provided below.
Target: 97.50
Entry: 72.95
Stop\Support Level: 66.69
WTI: Crude oil drops amid ceasefire reportsCrude oil prices tumbled on the back of reports of a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The news also sent gold prices lower. If confirmed, this will remove some of the geopolitical premium in oil prices, which had provided support for oil since Israel’s war started.
Today's drop means, WTI has held below key resistance around $71.50 - $72.50 range. While below here, any short-term recoveries like we have seen last week would be against the underlying trend.
Short-term support around $69.29 to $70.00 was being eroded at the time of writing. A close below here could pave the way for a potential retest of recent lows around $67.00, below which we don't have much in the way of support until $65.00.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Crude Oil - High Tide Pt.2Pt 1 found here .
This is an extremely critical market at this time. What must be understood, is NYMEX light crude oil is not its' own independent market, but rather a BENCHMARK for a larger market for crude oil globally, and its' derivatives. Consider a Kenyan bank, that owns a loan on a Kenyan gas station. What is the best instrument to hedge their investment? Well, obviously the answer is NYMEX:RB1! , NYMEX gasoline futures. The sovereign bond of gasoline prices so to speak.
Examining the market technically, we see that it appears bullish. The market experienced a severe panic in price during 2020, as demand and logistics collapsed in face of a global epidemic. However the price has recovered considerably, due to OPEC controls and the global necessity for this commodity. In fact, the market has even retested attempts made at reaching its 2008 high.
Many local market do not have access to global markets as might be expected, such as the NYSE and CME to conduct their day-to-day affairs. This highlights the importance of NYMEX:CL1! globally, not only for the physical delivery of light crude in the United States. But the global marketplace for light crude oil and its' derivatives, such as plastic containers, heating oil and cosmetic products. The reference price for such items by suppliers, is naturally the most liquid benchmark available to them. Which is to say, they will sell their product based on the most available market for their ingredients. A notion common in all business, to be examined at a global level to understand the relevance of this market into the future. This market exists in the United States, which is what underpins the importance of the US Dollar as this principle applies to all commodity and equity benchmarks. Furthermore, the principle of liquidity remains relevant all through history, where commodities as long as trade exists have been priced according to the most liquid benchmark.
The relevance of the US Dollar can most clearly be observed in global bond markets. As capital becomes scarce as Quantitative Easing globally comes to an end, and begins to flow towards the USA, creating the rally in $TVC:DXY. Rates in sovereign debt markets in the US and abroad have risen, and prices have fallen. A lack of demand in sovereign debt outside the USA is being realized, as FRED:RRPONTTLD RRP usage has risen since the beginning of the war between Ukraine and Russia. Because the USA is also the global benchmark for interest rates, due to its deep liquidity. Banks all around the globe balance and hedge their local debt based on this proxy market. For all intents and purposes, this is the only game in town.
It may seem odd that the price of crude oil in US Dollars has risen, given that the value of the US Dollar has risen significantly worldwide. Inflation domestically might dictate that the price of NYMEX:CL1! should fall, but this has not been the case. There is something beneath the surface, that indicates a deep value in this trade yet to be realised. Despite governments and activist organisations fighting against the product, its relevance in commerce has not diminished. Coupled with the importance of this global benchmark, the whole of oil-based product globally appears as important as ever. The market indicated last week the potential for a turning point, as it has capitulated. Traders should consider the market will likely make another low, but appears to be setting up for a rally.
CRUDE OIL (WTI) More Growth is Coming
After quite an extended consolidation on a key daily horizontal support,
WTI Oil bounced and violated a resistance line of the range.
It is an important sign of strength of the buyers.
With a high probability, the price will go up and reach 72.3 level soon.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
WTI 69.40 BULLS / APPROACHING 72.50 free daily planAs discussed in yesterday’s plan over @ Voila's Oil Trading (substack) why 69.40 key level will be delivering a strong push towards our 1st top of range target - 72.50.
WTI 4 hour:
WTI is pushing off 69.40 our intraday support .
This buying will need to sustain above the 69.77 daily pivot as we look for a definitive break of 70.35 today… towards the 72.50 major resistance.
We should only be minimizing long risk if price action is indicative of a 69.40 level break here. It’s not right now as the 4hr shows a 20 ema (red) trend holding.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trade Plan!
Continued buying above 69.40, long to the next levels:
- 70.35 , 71.70 , 72.50
Strong selling below 69.40, short to the next levels:
- 68.00
Daily pivot is 69.77
$USOIL USOIL WT CRUDE OIL Descending TriangleTVC:USOIL USOIL WT CRUDE OIL price action has formed a Descending Triangle on the Weekly timeframe.
Current Price: 70.3
In previous years, #USOIL reached a high of 149 and retraced to a low of 66.4 (A retracement of over 50%)
A breakout of Descending triangle can lead to higher prices: 73.9, 84.4, 94.3
A break below 66.4 can lead to prices down to 42.7!
It remains to be seen...
Weekly Forecast Nov. 18th: Silver / Platinum / Copper /Crude OilThe precious metals have been bearish over the last couple of weeks. Will the market shift to a
bullish one this week?
Crude Oil has been bearish-neutral. Institutional players are busy adding to their sell positions. What will the market do this week?
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
FORECAST UPDATES! Silver / Platinum / Copper /Crude OilTuesday Nov. 19
Price has tipped its hand, and traded through the -FVGs on all of the metals. The bullish rallies
give us a bias to base our buy setups on!
Check the comments section below for updates regarding this analysis throughout the week.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
Leave any questions or comments in the comment section.
I appreciate any feedback from my viewers!
Like and/or subscribe if you want more accurate analysis.
Thank you so much!
Disclaimer:
I do not provide personal investment advice and I am not a qualified licensed investment advisor.
All information found here, including any ideas, opinions, views, predictions, forecasts, commentaries, suggestions, expressed or implied herein, are for informational, entertainment or educational purposes only and should not be construed as personal investment advice. While the information provided is believed to be accurate, it may include errors or inaccuracies.
I will not and cannot be held liable for any actions you take as a result of anything you read here.
Conduct your own due diligence, or consult a licensed financial advisor or broker before making any and all investment decisions. Any investments, trades, speculations, or decisions made on the basis of any information found on this channel, expressed or implied herein, are committed at your own risk, financial or otherwise.
Crude Oil - High TideCrude oil is a very complicated market at this time - difficult to see through the fog. Given the second Trump presidency in January of 2025, Russian sanctions on exports and an ever complicated situation in the Middle East, the market appears virtually untouchable.
So let's break it down. Given that Trump has been granted a second term as president as of the first week of November 24', this is the single most important variable - and I will elaborate why.
The lines of resistance and support on this chart were drawn nearly a year ago yet remain relevant why? Because crude oil to the world, is priced in US Dollars. Any nation seeking to trade their natural resources is looking towards NYMEX, not because it is ideal but because it is LIQUID. This theme is virtually omnipresent in commodities and should be made note of. Regardless of what market a given entity is using to buy and sell commodities - particularly energy - it is priced given the current price of the most LIQUID index. So a sale of Russian oil brokered between China and India will bear some respectiveness to the NYMEX price of light crude oil, regardless of what product is being exchanged.
So first, lets try and examine the logistics of UREX crude.
As we can see, export of Russian crude oil has declined since it's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This would be expected, given that not only do EU sanctions against Russia specificy against its' ability to trade its' natural resource, but for international suppliers to qualify for insurance in transporting Russian product. This is an extremely difficult notion to quantify, and will only be approximated for the purposes of this essay. It is implicit given the energy security structure of the EU that Russian aggregate product (energy) will be supplied regardless of sanctions, however this agreement becomes more complicated and pricier for the EU when examined from a global perspective.
According to the media, Russia controls the marginal barrel of oil globally. This comes as a multi- decennial effort by the Putin administration to isolate Russian oil markets from influence by the US Dollar - a bold effort, for better or worse, has succeeded. Meaning that theoretically Nthrough OPEC, Russia can starve its competitors of profit by keeping the price of oil low enough that only they can produce profit at the margin, even in spite of EU sanctions.
An unflagged, or unregistered, fleet of commercial ships has emerged since 2022, which is extremely relevant to the proposed thesis. However given the opaque nature of this commercial fleet cannot be investigated, it will be assumed that they are enabling the commerciality of Russian crude oil globally, having secured a black market outside the realm of commercial shipping typically secured by the largest Navy globally, the USA.
The US Navy has ceased to protect commercial shipping in proximity to Yemen, as rebel groups such as the Houthi continue their aggression towards Western flagged commercial vessels. However, it is unclear of the influence of "black flagged", or unregistered and uninsured vessels carrying Russian crude, among other potentially illegal product through the region.
This is relevant, because as insurance rates have risen for global carriers, so too have the protests by major carriers against the sanctions placed against Russia. In a purely hypothetical landscape, carriers deemed illegitimate in the Western sphere of affairs have been able to transport product at a lower crude price, at a negotiable insurance rate previously commodified in the Western world. Commercial shipping insurers have at large protested against EU sanctions - unable to compete with the emergent black market.
Now we will assume that a Trump presidency will resume the regularity of oil exports and pricing as dictated by OPEC - however there remains several months of "negotiations". We can assume Trump parties have influence over these negotiations going into the January inauguration, yet a critical gap remains. As any nation would, the Russians and Saudis despite OPEC have an opportunity to control without impunity the marginal price of oil - the price at which US producers of crude oil will produce a profit. Historically it would be in the best interest of these nations to produce oil within the aforementioned margins.
However, given the global stance against fossil fuels, there is an opportunity for otherwise sanctioned nations to seize a great deal of power over their Western counterparts. Many refineries and wells in the US have been rendered dysfunctional under complex and opaque legal code instituted by the Biden administrations, and are unable to compete against their Russian counterparts altogether. In which case, before a "free-market" administration such as Trump in 2025 can stabilise crude markets globally, OPEC participants could force the price much higher. In spite of sanctions and a lack of negotiations, a elevated crude price would prove disastrous for developed nations such as Great Britain and Germany, who have no choice but to submit to Russian demands - or wait for US oversea exports, the logistics-intensive alternative.
In light of rapid and progressive political change, the crude oil market is an absolute hotbox. It is difficult to prove with data and charts what an opaque and mysterious market this is, but one can only assume OPEC has all the data a future Trump administrations has - which indicated unfettered Russian control over the price of crude oil as long as the war in Ukraine continues.
Whether peace can be negotiated remains a question for 2025. But for traders looking into commodities for 2025 - expect nothing less than chaos. The introduction of a black fleet complicated the role of OPEC immensely, who may seek over the next several years to integrate this emergent problem back into insurable shipping groups. Either way, EU sanctions have produced a long-term consequence to the market which should be on the radar of any savvy trader. Given the strength of the US Dollar and the consolidation trend in oil, any elevation in price will benefit Russians more than any other financial entity. It seems unlikely as of the time of writing the price will decline any further, as no party stands to gain below $70/barrel. An embargo as seen back in the 70s could push prices well over $100/ barrel, placing EU energy security in dire straits.