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Crude Oil

WTI OIL Still bearish but watch this level for a reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) is posting today the 2nd straight green 1D candle following yesterday's EIA report but the short-term pattern remains a (dashed) Channel Down, which keeps the trend bearish. Ever since the July 05 rejection at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Triangle pattern, we've been aiming for a 1W MA200 (red trend-line) contact, similar to the February 05 2024 Low. As long as the 1D RSI remains below its MA trend-line, we will remain bearish, moving however our medium-term Target a bit higher to 78.50. If however the RSI breaks above its MA, we will close the short immediately and buy instead on the bullish break-out, targeting 87.60 (Resistance 2). Keep also an eye on the RSI's Symmetrical Support level (43.35) for a potential reversal. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
2
Exploring Bearish Plays w/ Futures, Micros & Options on FutureIntroduction The WTI Crude Oil futures market provides various avenues for traders to profit from bullish and bearish market conditions. This article delves into several bearish strategies using standard WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts, and options on these futures. Whether you are looking to trade outright futures contracts, construct complex spreads, or utilize options strategies, this publication aims to assist you in formulating effective bearish plays while managing risk efficiently. Choosing the Right Contract Size When considering a bearish play on WTI Crude Oil futures, the first decision involves selecting the appropriate contract size. The standard WTI Crude Oil futures and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures contracts offer different levels of exposure and risk. WTI Crude Oil Futures: Standardized contracts linked to WTI Crude Oil with a point value = $1,000 per point. Suitable for traders seeking significant exposure to market movements. Greater potential for profits but also higher risk due to larger contract size. TradingView ticker symbol is CL1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $6,000 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures: Contracts representing one-tenth the value of the standard WTI Crude Oil futures. Each point move in the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures equals $100. Ideal for traders who prefer lower exposure and risk. Allows for more precise risk management and position sizing. TradingView ticker symbol is MCL1! Margin Requirements: As of the current date, the margin requirement for Micro WTI Crude Oil futures is approximately $600 per contract. Margin requirements are subject to change and may vary based on the broker and market conditions. Choosing between standard WTI Crude Oil and Micro WTI Crude Oil futures depends on your risk tolerance, account size, and trading strategy. Smaller contracts like the Micro WTI Crude Oil futures offer flexibility, particularly for newer traders or those with smaller accounts. Bearish Futures Strategies Outright Futures Contracts: Selling WTI Crude Oil futures outright is a straightforward way to express a bearish view on the market. This strategy involves selling a futures contract in anticipation of a decline in oil prices. Benefits: Direct exposure to market movements. Simple execution and understanding. Ability to leverage positions due to margin requirements. Risks: Potential for significant losses if the market moves against your position. Mark-to-market losses can trigger margin calls. Example Trade: Sell one WTI Crude Oil futures contract at 81.00. Target price: 76.00. Stop-loss price: 82.50. This trade aims to profit from a 5.00-point decline in oil prices, with a risk of a 1.50-point rise. Futures Spreads: 1. Calendar Spreads: A calendar spread, also known as a time spread, involves selling (or buying) a longer-term futures contract and buying (or selling) a shorter-term futures contract with the same underlying asset. This strategy profits from the difference in price movements between the two contracts. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Potential to profit from changes in the futures curve. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to outright positions. Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position. Example Trade: Sell an October WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Buy a September WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Target spread: Decrease in the difference between the two contract prices. In this example, the trader expects the October contract to lose more value relative to the September contract over time. The profit is made if the spread between the December and September contracts widens. 2. Butterfly Spreads: A butterfly spread involves a combination of long and short futures positions at different expiration dates. This strategy profits from minimal price movement around a central expiration date. It is constructed by selling (or buying) a futures contract, buying (or selling) two futures contracts at a nearer expiration date, and selling (or buying) another futures contract at an even nearer expiration date. Benefits: Reduced risk compared to outright futures positions. Profits from stable prices around the middle expiration date. Risks: Limited profit potential compared to other spread strategies or outright positions. Changes in contango or backwardation could hurt the position. Example Trade: Sell one November WTI Crude Oil futures contract. Buy two October WTI Crude Oil futures contracts. Sell one September WTI Crude Oil futures contract. In this example, the trader expects WTI Crude Oil prices to remain relatively stable. Bearish Options Strategies 1. Long Puts: Buying put options on WTI Crude Oil futures is a classic bearish strategy. It allows traders to benefit from downward price movements while limiting potential losses to the premium paid for the options. Benefits: Limited risk to the premium paid. Potential for significant profit if the underlying futures contract price falls. Leverage, allowing control of a large position with a relatively small investment. Risks: Potential loss of the entire premium if the market does not move as expected. Time decay, where the value of the option decreases as the expiration date approaches. Example Trade: Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures with a strike price of 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Target price: 76.00. Stop-loss: Premium paid (e.g., 2.75 points x $1,000 per contract). If the WTI Crude Oil futures price drops below 81.00, the put option gains value, and the trader can sell it for a profit. If the price stays above 78.25, the trader loses only the premium paid. 2. Synthetic Short: Creating a synthetic short involves buying a put option and selling a call option at the same strike price and expiration. This strategy mimics holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. Benefits: Similar profit potential to shorting the futures contract. Flexibility in managing risk and adjusting positions. Risks: Potential for unlimited losses if the market moves significantly against the position. Requires margin to sell the call option. Example Trade: Buy one put option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Sell one call option on WTI Crude Oil futures at 81.00, expiring in 30 days. Target price: 76.00. The profit and loss (PnL) profile of the synthetic short position would be the same as holding a short position in the underlying futures contract. If the price falls, the position gains value dollar-for-dollar with the underlying futures contract. If the price rises, the position loses value in the same manner. 3. Bearish Options Spreads: Options offer versatility and adaptability, allowing traders to design various bearish spread strategies. These strategies can be customized to specific market conditions, risk tolerances, and trading goals. Popular bearish options spreads include: Vertical Put Spreads Bear Put Spreads Put Debit Spreads Ratio Put Spreads Diagonal Put Spreads Calendar Put Spreads Bearish Butterfly Spreads Bearish Condor Spreads Etc. Example Trade: Bear Put Spread: Buying the 81.00 put and selling the 75.00 put with 30 days to expiration. Risk Profile Graph: This example shows a bear put spread aiming to profit from a decline in WTI Crude Oil prices while limiting potential losses. For detailed explanations and examples of these and other bearish options spread strategies, please refer to our published ideas under the "Options Blueprint Series." These resources provide in-depth analysis and step-by-step guidance. Trading Plan A well-defined trading plan is crucial for successfully executing any strategy. Here’s a step-by-step guide to formulating your plan: 1. Select the Strategy: Choose between outright futures contracts, calendar or butterfly spreads, or options strategies based on your market outlook and risk tolerance. 2. Determine Entry and Exit Points: Entry price: Define the price level at which you will enter the trade (e.g., breakout, UFO resistance, indicators convergence/divergence, etc.). Target price: Set a realistic target based on technical analysis or market projections. Stop-loss price: Establish a stop-loss level to manage risk and limit potential losses. 3. Position Sizing: Calculate the appropriate position size based on your account size and risk tolerance. Ensure that the position aligns with your overall portfolio strategy. 4. Risk Management: Implement risk management techniques such as using stop-loss orders, hedging, and diversifying positions to protect your capital. Risk management is vital in trading to protect your capital and ensure long-term success. Conclusion In this article, we've explored various bearish strategies using WTI Crude Oil futures, Micro WTI Crude Oil futures, and options on futures. From outright futures contracts to sophisticated spreads and options strategies, traders have multiple tools to capitalize on bearish market conditions while managing their risk effectively. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
WTI Crude Oil Bearish Heist Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist WTI Crude Oil Market based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Short entry. Our target is Green Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is oversold / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bullish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money. Stop Loss : Recent Swing High using 4h timeframe Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update. Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Thief_Trader
OIL: First red day, day 3 breakout long and failed weekly high Hi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range ✅ day 2 cycle Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 Friday DAY 3 Closing Range 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day ✅ First Green Day 3 Days Long Breakout ✅ 3 Days Short Breakout Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump ✅ Dump&Pump Frontside Backside ✅ 4. THESIS: Long: secondary, I'm not really interested today in going long, however, Friday HOW failed breakout, started dumping and it could be considered as a higher high for a dump and pump. Short: primary, weekly template pump and dump, lower low can be a sign of weakness, watching second hour NYT for down continuation. Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDEShort
by GianniPichichero
3
Unpacking the Looming Oil Price Surge: A Multifaceted AnalysisGlobal oil markets are brewing with the potential for a significant price surge. This intricate scenario is fueled by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and market dynamics. This analysis dives deep into these factors, equipping you to navigate the complexities of the oil market and make informed decisions. Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Middle East: The Middle East, a lynchpin of global oil production, has a long history of political instability. Conflicts in this region, especially those involving major oil producers, can wreak havoc on supply chains. When oil production or transportation is disrupted, scarcity drives prices upwards. Recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have raised concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil transport. Such an event could throw global oil supplies and prices into disarray. The US Dollar: A Double-Edged Sword: During periods of global turmoil, investors often flock to safe-haven assets like the US dollar (USD). Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar might dampen the potential rise in oil prices. This is because a rising dollar makes oil more expensive for countries purchasing with other currencies, potentially leading to a decline in demand. However, the safe-haven demand for USD also introduces broader complexities to global financial markets. Increased investor risk reassessment can lead to market volatility, impacting oil prices as market sentiment reacts to geopolitical developments. China's Economic Engine: A Potential Dampener: China, the world's largest oil consumer, plays a critical role in global oil demand. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy can have significant repercussions. Recent indicators suggest a deceleration in China's economic growth, potentially leading to reduced oil consumption. This economic slowdown acts as a cautionary sign for bullish traders, as it could counteract the upward pressure on prices from supply disruptions and safe-haven demand for USD. China's economic challenges are multifaceted. The country is grappling with the aftermath of strict COVID-19 measures that disrupted both domestic consumption and international trade. Additionally, the real estate sector, a significant driver of Chinese economic growth, is facing a severe downturn, further dampening economic prospects. These factors collectively suggest that China's demand for oil may not grow as robustly as it has in the past, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on global oil prices despite other upward pressures. Market Dynamics and Speculation: The Amplification Factor: Beyond geopolitical and economic considerations, market dynamics and speculative trading play a crucial role in shaping oil prices. Hedge funds and institutional investors engage in speculative activities that can amplify price movements. In times of perceived scarcity or anticipated disruptions, speculative activities can drive prices higher as traders seek to capitalize on potential supply shortages. Furthermore, the oil futures market, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, can also influence current prices. If traders anticipate higher future prices due to geopolitical risks or economic factors, they may bid up prices in the present, leading to immediate price increases.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by MorMedia
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
OIL: Day 3 breakout short, first green dayHi everyone and welcome to my channel, please don’t forget to support all my work subscribing and liking my post, and for any question leave me a comment, I will be more than happy to help you! “Trade setups, not movements” 1. DAY OF THE WEEK (Failed Breakout, False Break, Range Expansion) Monday DAY 1 Opening Range Tuesday DAY 2 Initial Balance Wednesday DAY 3 (reset DAY 1) Mid Point Week Thursday DAY 2 ✅ day 2 cycle Friday DAY 3 Closing Range 2. SIGNAL DAY First Red Day First Green Day ✅ 3 Days Long Breakout 3 Days Short Breakout ✅ Inside Day 3. WEEKLY TEMPLATE Pump&Dump Dump&Pump ✅ Frontside Backside ✅ 4. THESIS: Long: primary, signal day, potential weekly dump and pump can be completed by today. At the moment the market is dumping in the day, if I will see a consolidation holding till CPI or 9am (OIL opening ), I will be willing to take this long setup Short: secondary, Asia pumped into yesterday HOD, and failed, I can not exclude a retest of the LOW if the market keep going breaking down. Please note that the purpose of my analysis is to help me and you hunting the best trade setup for the day, none of my technical aspects are a way to forecast any directional market movement. Gianni
PEPPERSTONE:SPOTCRUDELong
by GianniPichichero
10
WTI tests key supportWTI was testing a key support area after falling for the third consecutive day. As can be seen on the chart, US oil was testing support around the upper end of the 80.00 - 81.50 support area, which had been resistance in the past. Here, we are expecting to see a rebound given the bullish price structure of crude oil over the past several days. If so, another test of the bearish trend line going back to September 2023 should not come as surprise, around the $84.00 area. The line in the sand is now at around $80.00, the most recent low prior to the latest rally. Should WTI break below this level, then it would invalidate its still-bullish technical picture. But my base case scenario is that we could see a recovery from around the current levels. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:USOILLong
by FOREXcom
Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
Crude Oil "Triangle Pattern" Target 7100 and "Wolf Wave Target"A "Triangle Pattern" has formed in Crude Oil and Downtrend has "Breakout". So market is Bullish Trend. And the Target is Triangle's Top Trendline at INR 7100. Additionally, Expect a Breakout of the Triangle Pattern. Don't miss the "Wolf Wave Target" Opportunity. If Breakout the Triangle Pattern, then the Next 2nd Target is Wolf Wave. Refer to the below image for Wolf Wave Target Achieved in Ethereum. Guess 3rd Target ??? I want to help people Make Profit all over the "World". Additionally, I am Eager to Receive Money form Worldwide because of my Potential. Thank you
MCX:CRUDEOIL1!Long
by SasikumarMani