Crude Oil
WTI CRUDE OIL: Turning bearish with two clear targets.WTI Crude Oil has almost reached on Wednesday our 83.50 long-term TP and it is time for us to turn bearish and consider a long-term selling approach. Technically, the 1D chart already almost turned neutral (RSI = 56.205, MACD = 1.310, ADX = 32.453) and hasn't even approached the 1D MA200. We are targeting a decline near the 1D MA50 (TP = 78.00). If the price closes a 1D candle under it, we will sell again and target the 1W MA200 (TP = 74.50), which as explained in previous analyses and as you can see on this chart, it has been the long-term Support since February 1st 2021.
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Breakout for crude oil in focusCrude oil has been grinding higher since the December low, but after a 4-week period of choppy trade momentum has turned higher.
Whilst $80 has been a tough level to crack in recent week, we suspect a breakout is now on the cards
- 200-day MA has provided dynamic support
- Falling wedge into 200-day MA
- Bullish range expansion out of the falling wedge
- RSI (14) curling higher from the neutral zone (50)
Prices are teasing the $80 level during a quiet Asian session. Bulls could either look to enter the breakout above $80 alongside rising volume, or seek dips down to the $79 handle / 2023 open price in anticipation of a breakout.
The bias remains bullish above the $200-day MA with $84 now in focus
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?😳 (12H UPDATE)Oil position still active in the Gold Fund for our bigger investors. Oil moving smooth in our predicted bias! While it'll be a loss for majority of the public who suffer from higher Oil prices, we'll be profiting as we've managed to get in on the right side of the market📈
Buyers still holding strong. GET INTO LONG TERM OIL POSITIONS NOW!
CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?😳 (2D UPDATE)Oil position still active in the Gold Fund for our bigger investors. Oil moving very smooth in our predicted direction! While it'll be a loss for majority of the public who suffer from higher Oil prices, we'll be profiting as we've managed to get in on the right side of the market📈
Buyers still holding strong. GET INTO LONG TERM OIL POSITIONS NOW!
A Sell on the Rise StrategyFrom a long-term perspective, Oil, in this case, we use the Brent Last Day Financial by NYMEX CME, overall is trending downward!
It would be tempting to initiate a “sell on rise strategy” especially when a long term trend line (in blue) is challenged. The trend line majors the historical highs of Brent (BZ) as well as Crude (CL) since the second all-time-high (ATH) in March 2022.
Diving deeper and a closer look to what's happening in 2024! Brent has been consolidating way too long already! Crude oil touched-and-go, the same immediate resistance, and marked a 4-month high before closing just below $87 per barrel. Meanwhile, from a short-term perspective, it coincides with a broad technical bullish consolidation within a channel formation (Orange lines). All recent higher-highs and higher-lows in 2024 have indicated an uptrend and the current bullish bias was well supported at triple bottom (Purple line) in the last couple of weeks.
Ideally, Oil should consolidate within the wedge formation until a sustained clear breakout. Oil is trading in an overbought territory and reversal should be in cards!
A suggested trade to bet on the stronger challenge downtrend would be to short at 87.50 level and an appropriate stop loss above an immediate significant resistance. Fundamentally still overbought am looking to break the congested trend channel downwards!
Crude Chronicles: Unveiling the ZigZag Symphony - Quest for $55Crude Oil NYMEX:CL1! !
Let's delve into a crucial chart, our beloved Crude Oil (CL1!) Futures Contract. Starting the count post the pandemic dip, we've completed a 5-wave cycle reaching $130. After a subsequent drop, the Wave C formed in March 2023. Following that, in my analysis, we've crafted an upward Wave X around $95. Currently, we seem to be descending to form Wave Y or Wave II of the overall cycle, expected between $55 and potentially lower, around $50.
This range holds significance, encompassing the Y-extension from 127.2% to 138%, and precisely the 61.8% retracement of Wave II. An essential zone, it coincides with a tiny accumulation phase from 2021, aligning with the 61.8% level.
Zooming into the 2-hour chart, the B to C wave reveals a 5-wave structure, typical of a ZigZag pattern (5-3-5). Therefore we should see a 5-wave structure to the downside. Analyzing the current sequence, we've completed waves 1, 2, and 3, hitting the 161.8% mark – a minimum target for a Wave 3.
We are anticipating a retracement for Wave 4 within 38-61.8%. A potential Flat pattern suggests the 38.2% level could act as support, projecting a move downwards after a slight surge. The primary scenario envisions a move to $55, invalidated if Wave ((iv)) surpasses the Wave ((i)) level, marked as "Invalidation," precisely above 61.8%.
Several factors indicate a downward trajectory, making $55 a plausible target.
Oil continues to ascend within the upward-sloping channelWest Texas Intermediate crude oil regained a bullish momentum and managed to establish a new high at $81.58, which marks the highest value in over four months. Additionally, RSI, MACD, and Stochastic all moved higher on the daily chart. These developments are positive for oil and bolster a bullish case in the short term and medium term. However, while it is possible that oil might reach $85 per barrel (or perhaps even $90, depending on the global economy, oil supply/demand dynamics, and the situation in the Middle East), we are skeptical about such high price tags as $100 per barrel in the coming months. In our opinion, the United States will continue to ramp up its production against OPEC, which is trying to balance the market by cutting its own production quotas. Furthermore, the declining industrial and manufacturing production in Europe and the United States is likely to continue holding a lid over rising oil prices. Consequently, at the moment, we see very limited upside for oil.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the ADX’s daily chart, which reflects the trend’s momentum. Yellow arrows indicate a temporary decline in momentum ahead of the OPEC’s monthly report and subsequent awakening after the report.
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance )
Risk Disclaimer:
Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
Crude Oil (WTI) at ResistanceCrude oil is currently facing resistance on a 1-hour time frame.
We've established an upper and lower zone for trading.
On the weekly candle from last week, the price closed above the previous week's level, which indicates a possible uptrend towards higher levels around 83.
If there is a significant gap in the price on Sunday, we should watch for how the price reacts at these levels before closing the gap.
I'd appreciate your thoughts on this.
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Bullish Trend Continues 🛢️
Crude Oil set a new higher high higher close on a daily,
violating a key horizontal structure resistance.
It is a strong trend-following signal that indicates that growth will most likely continue.
Next goal - 82.4
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WTI OIL Trade according to this Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a short-term Channel Up on the 4H time-frame, with the wider pattern still a Channel Up since the December 13 2023 market bottom. As long as the price keeps closing the 4H candles within the Channel Up, we remain bullish, targeting 81.85 (+6.64%, which is the rise of the previous Bullish Leg of the dashed Rising Megaphone).
If a 4H candle is closed below it, we will take the loss and open a sell aimed at the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) at 77.70.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Potential rejection on a Falling Resistance.WTI Crude Oil is close to making a 3rd contact on the Falling Resistance, which last time ended in a 4hour MA200 test.
Along with the Rising Support, this pattern resembles December-January, which later broke upwards to a new High.
Until it does, sell and target the 1day MA200 again at 77.50.
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Bullish trend is still relatively weakWest Texas Intermediate crude oil continues to trade within the upward-sloping channel. However, its bullish trend remains weak, as reflected in the relatively low (but growing) value of ADX (on the daily time frame). In the past two trading sessions, the daily RSI continued to flatten, Stochastic turned lower, and MACD performed a bearish crossover while staying above the midpoint. With these developments unfolding, we pay close attention to the 20-day SMA and resistance levels at $79.25 and $79.72. The price’s ability to retest these resistance levels and ideally maintain a ground above them will bolster a bullish case in the short term. In contrast, a breakdown below the 20-day SMA might hint at oil wanting to slide toward the channel's lower bound.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily graph of USOIL and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates the oil’s recent retracement toward its 20-day SMA, which acts as a support.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily MACD. The yellow arrow highlights a bearish crossover between the MACD and signal lines. While this is slightly bearish, it is important to note that MACD remains in the bullish territory.
Illustration 1.03
The chart above illustrates simple support/resistance levels derived from past peaks and troughs; one more alternative resistance lies at $79.72.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Bullish (weak)
Weekly time frame = Neutral
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor or any other entity. Your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.