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Crude Oil

USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
1
WTI OIL Channel Down bottom buy signalWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually hit our 71.00 target we set last week (see chart below) upon the dotted Channel Up break-out: The price is now attempting a rebound following the breach of the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which is a typical procedure throughout 2023 and delivers a strong rebound. However, we we will our perspective short-term until the Channel Down breaks, and will only target 73.50, which is where we expect contact to be made with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). We reserve a spot for an additional buy at 67.00 (June 28 Low), in case the price makes one last pull-back to price a Lower Low on the Channel Down. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Bearish Trend Continues 🛢️ Crude oil is trading in a bearish trend on a daily. After a long-lasting consolidation within a horizontal range, the market violated its support on a daily and set a new lower low. Retesting the broken structure, the market started to coil within an intraday range. Its support breakout gives us a strong intraday confirmation. A bearish movement is now expected at least to 70.7 ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
3
WTI CRUDE OIL: Below the 1W MA200. Critical Support to hold.WTI Crude Oil crossed today under the 1W MA200, which is a level that, even though it broke on occassions this year, hasn't closed a 1D candle under it since February 1st 2021. Those occasions are marked by circles on your chart and as you see despite breaking under it, the price rose intraday closing the candles over the 1W MA200 at the end of those sessions, essentially holding it as long term Support. It is now critical therefore for buyers to hold the 1W MA200 and push the candle above it before the closing bell today. The 1D technical outlook is strongly bearish (RSI = 31.049, MACD = -2.590, ADX = 35.758), which is normal considering that the commodity has been trading inside a Channel Down since the September 28th High. However having touched the 30.000 oversold level on the 1D RSI, it makes the case for a rebound stronger, since every time it gold oversold during this (almost) 2 year span, an aggressive rebound followed. Consequently, as long as the 1D candles close over the 1W MA200, we will be buying and aming for the top of the Channel Down (TP = 76.50) and potentially the 1D MA50. If however the candle closes under it, we will aim for the 1.786 Fibonacci extension (TP = 66.50) as the November 8th Lower Low did. See how our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
CL1! Crude Oil Day Trade 6-Dec-2023TRADE DIRECTION: SHORT; as indicated by the red EMA cloud and the market structure. KEY LEVEL: 1) Round numbers S&R with 25 ticks range between each level (hidden) 2) Monthly, Weekly and Daily Pivot levels. TRIGGER SIGNAL: Price broke the previous day's low (green circle) and retraced to the bearish EMA cloud. A bearish pin bar (in yellow circle) formed as a sign sellers are ready to push the price down. The Profit target is set to be 3 ticks above the Daily S3 (white circle). RR: 1:1.56 SL: 54 Ticks TP: 84 Ticks (achieved)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by TheDemonTrader
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
WTI OIL Loosely supported by the RSI.WTI Oil (USOIL) got rejected yesterday just before it hit the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), near the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 2-month Channel Down. It may have broken though below the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as well but found support on the short-term Channel Up (dotted lines), which is essentially the bearish leg towards the Lower Highs of the Channel Down. The early October bullish sequence traded within such a Channel Up as well and broke downwards only when the 4H RSI broke below its Higher Lows trend-line (October 22). Currently the RSI is supported by a similar Higher Lows trend-line. If broken, we will see and target the 1W MA200 (red trend-line) at 71.00. Until then we have the opportunity for a Channel Up bottom long towards 79.50 (4H MA200 potential contact). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
1
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Consolidation & Complete Indecision 🛢️ WTI Crude Oil is consolidating within a range on a daily since the beginning of November. Depending on the reaction of the price to its boundaries, I see 2 potential scenarios. Bullish Scenario If the price breaks and closes above 80.85 - the upper boundary of the range, I will anticipate a growth to 82.50. Bearish Scenario In case of a breakout of 72.20 support, we may anticipate a bearish movement to 87.35 level. Wait for a breakout, that will give you a strong bullish or bearish confirmation. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
TVC:USOILShort
by VasilyTrader
1
OPEN n JMMC is going on, lets see what will done, #USOIL.. in today we have a most important event on table that is OPEN (The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) and JMMC (Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee), its totally a fundamental move expected but on technical behalf we have upside important resistance area that is mentioned on chart, if market hold it then a drop expected, overall for the time being i have a news regarding oil cutt production, let c what will be done from market side, trade wisely good luck
TVC:USOIL
by AdilHussain731333
5
Managing Oil Risk Around OPEC MeetingsRudyard Kipling wrote in his famous poem, “If you can keep your head when others are losing theirs and blaming it on you, then you’ll be a man, my son.” Shocks from OPEC decisions can leave even the experts on the edge of their seats. Short-dated options on crude oil are tailor made to address and manage such idiosyncratic risks helping each trader become a man of his own making. OPEC’s 187th meeting will be held on 30th November. On 22nd November, OPEC announced that the meeting was going to be rescheduled from its original date of 25th November. This is not the first time that OPEC meeting is being postponed. The 23-member OPEC+ alliance has competing interests which makes agreement among members difficult at times. Like last year, this time again, OPEC is rescheduling its meeting. Such news impacts oil markets hugely. Prices tanked. Put option premiums spiked. Put volumes broke records. Implied volatilities jumped 8.5% over three days. DISAGREEMENT OVER PRODUCTION QUOTAS ARE BREWING AT OPEC Not only was this meeting postponed but it will be held online instead of in-person. This is not the first time. This also occurred a year ago. It shifted its meeting online after fixing production targets at an in-person session in Vienna previously. Rescheduling of meeting is reported to be due to disagreement over production quotas. Following this announcement, Brent crude prices tanked 5% but rebounded swiftly to trade 2.3% lower. WTI fell 2.6%. As reported by Javier Blas of Bloomberg, deferment of OPEC production meeting stems from production quota arguments. The Financial Times reported on 17th November that OPEC was considering an incremental one million barrels per day (bpd) reduction. This is in addition to previous production cut commitments from Saudi Arabia and Russia. 2024 is looking precarious for the OPEC. Feeble demand growth compounded by a backdrop of elevated supply growth. The possibility of the OPEC+ deal of production cuts imploding is small but cannot be ruled out. A failure to come to an agreement can leave the oil market with uncertainty ahead. IMPLICATIONS OF DEAR OIL Equity and bond markets globally are in a celebratory mood on cooling inflation. Any shocks to the oil market could send inflation back up again. Refined fuel inventory levels look precariously low at levels unseen since 1982. Diesel and Heating Oil Inventory Levels are precariously low (Source: Bloomberg ) Compounding low refined fuel inventory is the continued low levels of US Strategic Petroleum Reserves which are at a forty-year low. US Strategic Petroleum Reserves continue to languish at 40-year lows BEARS ARE CHARGING OIL PRICES LOWER Crude prices are down about 20% from its September peak. Solid output from the US, and feeble indicators from China have sent oil prices cooling despite elevated geopolitical threats. Since touching a high of USD 95/barrel on 28th September, prices have steadily declined with spurts of bear market rallies. US West Texas Intermediate first continuous futures contract has traded exhibiting strong mean reversion for much of this year Technicals point to near term overall weakness. Momentum indicators point to sharp sell down risks. Mean reversion indicators point to ambivalence with a neutral direction signal. US West Texas Intermediate second continuous futures contract has traded exhibiting strong mean reversion for much of this year Global oil markets are expected to move into surplus early next year, according to the International Energy Agency on slowing demand growth. OPTIONS MARKET SIGNALS NEAR TERM BEARISHNESS AND LONGER-TERM BULLISHNESS Pricing of options expressed by way of implied volatilities shows that puts have been more expensive than calls. As a result, the skews are supressed and hovering at 7-month lows. Cost of options expressed in implied volatilities have shot up for puts relative to calls pushing skews down (Source: CME CVOL ) Inline with the behaviour observed in implied volatilities, charts below summarise the change in open interest between close of markets on 23rd November and 17th November. Participants have been ramping up puts relative to calls except for options expiring on 29th November and 1st December . Notwithstanding the positioning of traders and portfolio managers on near term options, options traders have a strong bullish position in longer term (going into latter part of December and next year) with put-call ratio at 0.63 implying five calls (bullish trades) for every three puts (bearish trades). Open Interest across the forward curve shows higher number of calls relative to puts (Source: CME QuikStrike ) The brewing disagreements among OPEC members are impacting implied volatility on crude oil options. CVol index on crude oil jumped 15% over merely 3 days on the announcement of OPEC meeting postponement. Volatility has been on the rise amid the ongoing lack of co-operation within the OPEC cartel (Source: CME QuikStrike ) HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SET UP The path ahead for oil prices looks uncertain. Volatility has spiked and could rise even higher on growing disagreement among OPEC members. If OPEC members go for deeper cuts, oil prices could rally. However, if the prisoner’s dilemma prevails, where OPEC majors continue pumping even more to flood the market, prices could tank. Amid such ambivalence, CME’s short dated crude oil options are tailored to manage price risks. Benefits of these short-dated options were described in a paper previously published. This paper posits an options strategy using the weekly crude oil option. OPEC is scheduled to meet on 30th November. A hypothetical trade is illustrated below using options expiring on 1st December. A long strangle involves holding a long-call and a long-put option at different strikes but with the same expiry and underlying. Strangle on crude oil delivers gains when prices swing wildly. However, the strangle loses money if price moves remain muted. Pay-off from this hypothetical options strategy is illustrated below. The long strangle requires USD 2.88/barrel (USD 1.47/barrel for long call at 75.5 and USD 1.41/barrel for long put at 74.5). CME Options Calculator can be used to arrive at the latest premium values at the specified strikes. The overall premium for the strangle represents approximately 3.8% of current oil price at $75 (indicative) and the trade breaks even at expiry when oil is either at $71.62/barrel or $78.38/barrel. MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. 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NYMEX:MCL1!
by mintdotfinance
2