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Crude Oil

USD/CAD - Canadian dollar stops nasty slideThe Canadian dollar has steadied on Thursday. In the North American session, USD/CAD is trading at 1.3728, down 0.12%. The Canadian currency has stabilized after a nasty four-day slide, in which it declined 1.9%. The US dollar continues to look strong against the majors, as "US exceptionalism" continues to make the greenback attractive to investors. The Canadian dollar is also getting squeezed by falling oil prices, as oil is a major export for Canada. Crude oil prices slid around $5 on Wednesday, its biggest daily drop in over a year, and fell further on Thursday before recovering. The rise in bond yields, which have raised fears of a global economic slowdown are weighing on investor sentiment towards oil. On the economic calendar, the Canada Ivey PMI eased slightly in September to 53.1, down from 53.5 in August, but easily beat the market consensus of 50.8. The PMI has indicated expansion in economic activity in eight out of the past nine readings. As well, the job creation component rose from 58.5 to 54.8 in August, marking a six-month high. These are encouraging figures for the Canadian economy, which has run into some headwinds, such as a flatlined GDP in August. Canada's economy contracted in the second quarter, and a repeat in Q3 would indicate a technical recession. The Canadian dollar could show some volatility on Friday, with the US and Canada both releasing employment reports for September. Canada is expected to have added 20,000 jobs in September, which would be half of the gain in August of 39,900. The Bank of Canada will be keeping a close eye on wage growth, which is projected to rise to 5.5% y/y, compared to 5.2% in August. All eyes will be on the US nonfarm payrolls, which is showing signs of cracks, with three straight releases below the 200,000 mark. The August release came in at 187,000 and the consensus estimate for September stands at 170,000. Wage growth is expected to tick up to 0.3%, compared to 0.2% in August.  An unexpected reading in the NFP or wage growth reports could have a significant effect on the US dollar on Friday. USD/CAD faces resistance at 1.3806 and 1.3864 1.3695 and 1.3638 are the next support lines
by fisherkj4
CRUDE OIL - Entering Sideways Mode ✔️✔️Previously at FxProfessor: ✔️Perfect Long: ✔️Perfect Short: News: Oil continues to tumble after previous session's slide Here's the scoop: 📉 Prices took a tumble, with Brent crude down $1.19 to $84.62 a barrel and WTI crude dropping $1.31 to $82.91. Ouch! 📉 Yesterday, we saw a massive $5 drop, the biggest in over a year. The reason? A gloomier economic outlook and concerns about dwindling fuel demand after an OPEC+ meeting. 🛢️ OPEC+ decided to stick to its oil output policy. Saudi Arabia's holding onto a 1 million bpd cut until the end of 2023, and Russia's keeping a 300,000 bpd curb until December. No rush to boost supply, it seems. 🛢️ Russia also said, "No hurry" to lift the ban on fuel exports to tackle high local gasoline and diesel prices. 📉 National Australia Bank analysts are staying cautious, saying the market's still in deficit this quarter. Softening prices may mean OPEC won't ease supply restrictions anytime soon. 💶 On the flip side, the euro zone's facing economic challenges, with demand dropping in September due to rising borrowing costs and prices. 🇺🇸 In the U.S., gasoline demand hit a low not seen since the start of the year, coming in at 8 million bpd, according to the EIA. 📈 With all this uncertainty and weaker U.S. economic data, oil bulls might have a tough time pushing prices higher. 📊 Keep an eye on the market, and as always, trade wisely! One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:USOIL
by FX_Professor
7
Crude Oil (WTI)This looks like it is poised to head back into a well established $70-$80 range (and then some!). Anticipated long-term USD strength, as well as extended Global economic weakness bodes well for an enduring price weakness outlook. Technically, Crude is at a major pivot, both, at the top of a rising daily channel, as well as at the top of a descending weekly channel trend line, resulting in a significant confluence region - both of those having price-negative connotation. The Daily (main signal); SHORT on any reversal! ... and the 240 min. (secondary signal);
NYMEX:CL1!
by Nemo_Confidat
2
Oil (CL) Aggro/Oversold Fade BUYQuick take/analysis, but consider scooping some low-risk crude contracts here (break above 84.84). Better demand zones are lower, but we've had a sizable downdraft into buy areas + are testing a key support/resistance area (~84-85), so those traders may be at our backs. The US dollar has finally taken a pause at the supply zone we ID’d in posts from earlier this week/last week, so that may help commodity, including CL, longs. Keep this one a tight leash; the bounce we’ve had thus far has been tepid, a micro timeframe higher high/higher low hasn’t yet been put in , and daily/weekly “demand” is lower still (low-80s/upper-70s). That said, CL is certainly a trade to put on your radar. Given the technical structure of the recent selloff, consider taking any profits at 1:1, then 86, 87, and 88+. Again, better buys are lower, but start paying attention/stalking longs as remaining profit margin for short sellers is a lot smaller than it was at the beginning of the week (though there is still some downside risk)! Happy trading! Jon @ LionHart Trading
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by LionHart_Trading
Odd things in the oil market, reminiscent of 2022 market topRecently, more and more financial institutions have been upgrading their price targets for oil. Mostly, these forecasts were upward of $100 per barrel, with JP Morgan and some other financial entities forecasting prices as high as $150 in the coming months. About three weeks ago, we tweeted that these statements are very reminiscent of those made in the second quarter of 2022 when many of the same corporations upgraded their forecasts right at the market top (to $150, $200, etc., depending on the entity). While $100 per barrel could be in play if OPEC and OPEC+ (mainly referring to Saudi Arabia and Russia in this regard) manage to maintain production cuts and the U.S. stops releasing oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserves, we are very skeptical about the ultra bullish calls out there. The first reason for our view is that if the global economy continues slowing down and heads into recession, we will likely see oil demand falling. The second one, which surprises us, is that the Biden administration has not started filling up Strategic Petroleum Reserves despite planning to do so earlier this year (plus, despite oil falling below $70), which makes us wonder why the administration is not buying. Could it be that they completely miscalculated their game and missed the chance, or are they expecting a better opportunity to come (supposedly better than $64 per barrel)? We honestly do not know, but it is very odd, to say the least. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the monthly chart of U.S. crude oil production. From the start of 2023 through June 2023, U.S. crude oil production has grown by more than 500,000 barrels per day (by more than 4%). Illustration 1.02 Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of USOIL and simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Neutral Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
14
Crude Oil: Ongoing Elliott Wave Corrective Drop Can Be DeeperCrude oil has been on the rise over the last view weeks, which is the main reason why inflation is still the main global problem, so we have seen some positive correlation between dollar and crude as speculators believe that rates will stay here higher for longer. Well, what’s interesting now is that after that after a lot of crude oil bull calls for 100 dollar and higher, the energy is turning south. Looking at the current intraday drop, we can see some sharp move down now, it looks like an ongoing intraday impulse with room for more weakness after Crude inventory data shows decline of 2.2 million barrels last week. From an Elliott wave perspective that’s going impulse for wave A, so more weakness can be seen after subwave iv rally, or even after wave B bounce. Resistance is at 86.75 and 88.30. In fact, lower energy can also mean that inflation can slow down, and this can then at some point puts limited upside for the USD and yields. Grega
NYMEX:CLZ2023Short
by ew-forecast
USOIL DAILY TIME FRAME The Structure looks good to us, waiting for this instrument to correct and then give us these opportunities as shown on this instrument (Price Chart). Note: Its my view only and its for educational purpose only. Only who has got knowledge about this strategy, will understand what to be done on this setup. its purely based on my technical analysis only (strategies). we don't focus on the short term moves, we look for only for Bullish or Bearish Impulsive moves on the setups after a good price action is formed as per the strategy. we never get into corrective moves. because it will test our patience and also it will be a bullish or a bearish trap. and try trade the big moves. we do not get into bullish or bearish traps. We anticipate and get into only big bullish or bearish moves (Impulsive Moves). Just ride the Bullish or Bearish Impulsive Move. Learn & Know the Complete Market Cycle. Buy Low and Sell High Concept. Buy at Cheaper Price and Sell at Expensive Price. Keep it simple, keep it Unique. please keep your comments useful & respectful. Thanks for your support.... Tradelikemee Academy
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradelikemee
3
WTI OIL Rising prices are here to stay for years to comeUnderstanding WTI Oil (USOIL) on the larger, long-term time-frames such as the 1W or 1M charts can broader your perspective and allow you to consider market dynamics that you never thought they were possible to affect the trend. From time to time we tend to make such studies in order to give you an idea of how the long-term trend may be shaped. Example of such pieces of publications include the following, where a slow down on the Oil rise allowed us to realize that inflation peaked and get a timely sell: Or the following that got as a timely buy while the price was still at $69.20 to target $100 after a break above the 13 year Lower Highs Resistance: ** Why is Oil rising now? ** On today's study we look into the 1M time-frame and attempt to explain the current non-stop rise (completed 4 straight green 1M candles) that has taken most of the market by surprise. Let's start by acknowledging that it started on strong foundation as the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) held on 3 separate tests. The 1M MA100 (green trend-line) that was formerly the Resistance (had 2 emphatic rejections on June and October 2018) since October 2014, has been holding as Support since the April 2021 bullish break-out. ** The MA levels, Inflation and comparison with DotCom ** At the same time it is the first time we have all three 1M MA50, 1M MA100 and 1M MA200 (orange trend-line) squeezed so close to each other since late 2001. That was during the DotCom Bubble burst. As you can see, the patterns of now and then aren't all that different. In our time the market is attempting a recovery from the Inflation Crisis, coming off a war and the generational COVID crash (that led to the inflation crisis of course). The 1M RSI fractals have started and peaked on similar oversold and overbought levels respectively, while holding on their strong corrections the 0.786 Fibonacci level. Similar situation with the 1M MACD, Oil is about to form the 2nd Bullish Cross of the fractal, placing us in relative time terms to the 2002 rise. ** Importance of MACD and conclusion ** Similar oversold 1M MACD Bullish Crosses were during the 2016 Oil crisis (May) and in the aftermath of the 2008/09 Housing Crisis (October 2009). As a result, in our humble view, if Oil completes that Bullish Cross, it will give the market a signal that the price will continue to rise for many years to come (unless of course a higher fundamental intervention takes place). In conclusion, this shouldn't surprise us, as Oil has risen along with stocks following such Bear markets. Do you also expect rising Oil prices in the near future? ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
WTI CRUDE OIL Correction not over yet.WTI Crude Oil has been correcting, more aggressively than most thought after a High outside of the Channel Up. It is already under the 4hour MA50 and MA100 and is aiming for the Channel's bottom below the MA200 at 86.00. You can sell on the current market price and pursue this target. If the 1day MA50 and bottom hold there, buy and target Resistance A (95.00). If the Channel Up breaks downwards, don't jump in immediatelly even if it breaches lower for a short while, but wait for the first rebound near the 4hour MA50 to sell and target the 1week MA50 at 79.00. Note: A 4hour RSI Double Bottom, can be an indication that the Channel Up bottomed. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:USOILShort
by TheCryptagon
11
OIL, Crucial Wedge-Formation, Huge PLUNGE to Follow Next!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis of OIL. Within the recent high inflation development with continued rate hikes in a lot of economic fields, it has to be mentioned that OIL could be on the brink of major market disruptions especially when the rate hikes continue to rise further together with the DXY printing the next new highs. In this case, I have detected important underlying dynamics within the analytics dashboard and I have put them into perspective to determine what should be considered with OIL in the upcoming times. As when looking at my chart now, OIL could since May 2023 recover from the crucial bearish wave lows nonetheless this wave does not have a fundamental open interest and volume backing and this is why it can turn any time especially when a massive bearish supply wave is entering the market because of grievous rate hikes and potential new supply-chain disruptions that are going to trigger a supply shortage. Taking these crucial factors into consideration a major bearish decline and bearish momentum acceleration may be just around the corner. OIL has also formed this gigantic descending channel formation in which it has the major bearish distribution resistances within the upper boundary as marked. The most determining factor here is the massive ascending triangle formation that leads directly into the upper resistance zone and is now about to complete the wave count within the ascending triangle. This means, that as the wave-count directly approaches the crucial upper resistance zone it is going to lead to an increased bearish volatility breakout below the boundaries within the next times. Once the gigantic ascending triangle formation has been completed it is going to activate the next bearish continuation below the 100EMA and 300EMA. Especially, once the price-action formed the breakouts below the levels this is going to massively accelerate the bearish dynamics towards the lower levels and continue into the bearish momentum direction. The bearish price dynamic is going to continue till the final targets have been reached and in this case, it will be highly determining how the final targets are actually approached especially when the interest rates continue to rise together with supply-chain disruptions to accelerate this is going to trigger the next bearish waves even below the final target zones. Taking all the factors into consideration and because of the gigantic ascending triangle, together with the underlying indications with the interest rate dynamic as well as the supply-chain disruptions dynamic I am keeping the symbol on my watchlist and I am going to re-evaluate the situation once important changes happened within the bearish formation. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching my analysis of OIL. Support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
TVC:USOIL
by VincePrince
11
Crude Oil ~ 4H Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). Notes: - Further write-up on Daily Swing V2 Chart - Faded out longer TF parallel lines (light blue) TradingView has a sh*tty chart bug where any trend-lines drawn on longer TF become misaligned when you switch to shorter TFs. Temporary workaround = set "Opacity" on affected lines to "0%" before publishing & restore afterwards so you don't have to manually erase/re-draw...just remember where you drew them to begin with lol.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by BlueHatInvestor
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILShort
by ShahedZare
Crude Oil ~ Daily Swing V2 (Sept-Oct)Updated 30/09/23: - Revised up-trending parallel (green) - Added down-trending/consolidation parallel (white) - Added horizontal lines (yellow/dashed) to mark upper/lower range (94.239-87.829) Everything else stays the same (chartist holy grail lol). CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE has done an amazing job respecting its upward parallel channel since June. Could see period of consolidation (foreshadowed by prev price action) into lower trend-line before deciding whether to push higher towards Golden Fib (break upper trend-line), or capitulate to global recession fears & collapse towards 200DMA/23.6% Fib, TBC. Price action would be biased towards upside given OPEC+ bullish manipulation, however OPEC+ would also be hyper-vigilante on excessive Crude Oil prices which could threaten demand destruction - hence why they opted to review production cuts on a monthly basis to maintain price/economic stability.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDE
by BlueHatInvestor
Oil Surges to a New High of the YearAs the chart shows, the day before yesterday, a barrel of WTI cost USD 87.87, but this morning, the price exceeded the level of USD 93. That is, the growth was more than 6% in just 2 days. The main driver of such growth remains the voluntary reduction in oil production by OPEC+ countries. Added to this was the market's reaction to yesterday's news about the reduction in oil reserves in the United States (expected = -0.7 million barrels, actual = -2.2 million). Inventories are approaching historical lows, according to Reuters. Probably, the US authorities, by releasing oil from storage, are trying to reduce the impact of its high price on inflation, but the graph shows that these efforts are unlikely to give the desired result. The A→B decline in oil prices observed since September 19 was merely a correction (shown in red) within a longer-term uptrend (shown in blue). Wherein: → the price sharply pushed off from the lower border of the blue channel around 87.5 - we wrote about this scenario earlier; → after a short respite, it broke through the median line of the red channel at around 90.25; → confidently overcame the level of 91.35, where growth clearly slowed down 10 days ago when approaching point A; → exceeded the upper limit of the red channel. Now it is important for the bulls to gain a foothold at the achieved highs around USD 93. But if the upward impulse has not exhausted itself, then we may witness continued growth towards the upper border of the blue channel. On the other hand: overbought market, the desire to lock in profits from long positions before the weekend, a possible reaction at the level of statements from the US authorities — all these can become factors contributing to the formation of a correction (for example, to the median line of the blue channel). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XTIUSD
by FXOpen
CVX, Major CONTINUATION-SETUP, Sector Rally, BREAKOUT INCOMING!Hello There! Welcome to my new analysis about CVX on several timeframe perspectives. The oil market since the corona pandemic supply-shock dynamics has formed a important dynamic and had the ability to form a major rebound recovery with several new highs being formed and CVX having the ability to bounce into a new all-time-high. Now a big part of the dynamic is the consideration of if CVX has the potential to continue with this established formation and with the established trend moving on with further determinations. CVX on the local timeframe perspective is building this main wedge formation with great supports above the 140-150 area. If this wedge formation completes with the appropriate momentum breakout this will activate initial target-zones and above this considering the whole global big picture CVX is forming a much larger formation here with the broadening-wedge-formation on the global perspective being completed once the breakout of the local formation also setup. With the projection of this formation targets above 400 will be activated. In this manner, thank you everybody for watching the analysis, support from your side is greatly appreciated. VP
NYSE:CVX
by VincePrince
15
Last Dance of the Loonie and WTI? The correlation between WTI and Canadian Dollar seems to be breaking down, at least in the short term. Not sure the reasons for this, but posting to hear thoughts. For those unfamiliar with the WTI/CAD correlation, I have added some context. The Correlation: How Are They Connected? Commodity-Driven Economy : Canada is known for its abundant natural resources, including oil. The Canadian economy is heavily reliant on its energy sector, which includes the production and export of oil. When WTI crude oil prices rise, Canadian oil exports become more valuable, leading to an influx of foreign capital into Canada. This increased demand for the Canadian dollar can result in its appreciation against other currencies. Economic Health : The Canadian economy's overall health is closely tied to the energy sector's performance. When WTI prices surge, it often indicates increased economic activity, which can benefit Canada's economy and, consequently, the loonie. Conversely, when oil prices plummet, it can have a negative impact on the Canadian economy and lead to a weaker Canadian dollar. Risk Appetite : Like many commodity currencies, the Canadian dollar tends to strengthen during periods of risk appetite. When global economic conditions are stable, investors often flock to assets like oil, which can lead to higher oil prices and, in turn, boost the loonie.
CME:6C1!
by LonnieMSP