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Crude Oil

Crude Oil Futures ~ November TA Outlook (4H Intraday)NYMEX:CL1! chart mapping/analysis. Note: TradingView chart B-ADJ adjusted for contract changes Crude Oil Futures capitulating from early October rally despite ongoing Middle East tensions & geopolitical uncertainty. Only macroeconomic narrative/headwind that would override war escalations is increasing probability of global recession-induced demand destruction, IMO. Notes: Flat bottom pattern development = bias towards bearish price action, TBC. Crude Oil = highly manipulated trade with ongoing short-risk from Saudi Arabia &/or Russian market intervention - trade at your own risk to capital.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by BlueHatInvestor
Should the CRUDE OIL rally from here?The crude oil's 4th wave dip seems to have found the right area from where it might look to reverse and then rise towards the 97-100$ mark in the pending wave 5. The rise from the MAY bottom may look like a corrective ABC to many but in this chart i considered taking the wave 1 rise in May as a leading diagonal(more clearly visible on hourly and 3-hour charts), and therefore according to my wave counts the 5th wave should begin now as the wave c of ABC is ending now with an ending diagonal formation. SUPPORT ZONE 77-78 $ Note*- This is not a buy/sell advice. This chart is for educational purpose only.
TVC:USOILLong
by neeraj_2_sharma
XTIUSD( US OIL ) LONG term Trade AnalysisHello Traders In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By Forex Planet today XNGUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This Video is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts.
TVC:USOILLong
by ForexPlanet20
Oil says nothing flattering about the global economyWest Texas Intermediate crude oil hit our price target of $80 and continues to slide lower. At the moment, it trades slightly above $76, which marks a decline of nearly 20% from the highs in late September 2023. Today, we want to talk concisely about two things. First, China’s demand for oil began to slow down again after slightly picking up during the summer, which is reflected in the latest data revealing the rising level of the country’s stockpiles (do not forget, China also experienced a significant drop YoY in exports for October 2023). Second, Saudi Aramco posted 23% lower net income in the third quarter of 2023 versus the same time in 2022. All in all, we presume that does not tell anything flattering about the global economy. Technical analysis Daily time frame = Bearish Weekly time frame = Bearish Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
8
WTI CRUDE OIL: Very dangerous 1W MACD Bearish Cross formed.WTI Crude Oil materialized our 78.50 short term target (chart at the bottom) and crossed under the 1D MA200. This is a breach of potentially serious consequences as it also breached the 1W MA50, so we need to monitor the closing on a weekly scale. If it closes under it, the bearish trend is very likely to be extended. The formarion of a MACD Bearish Cross on the 1W timeframe can be very dangerous as the last one that happaned while the price breached the 1W MA50 was on June 13th 2022, the market High after the Russia invasion peak. If the market does close the week under the 1W MA50, we expect a rebound on the Channel Down bottom near 76.00 and if the candles close under the 1W MA50, fresh short targeting the 1W MA200 (TP = 71.00). See how well our prior idea has worked: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
CL1! Crude Oil Day Trade 6-Nov-2023The price seems not able to close below the 81.00 level. The 5 green arrows showed that buyers keep on pushing the price upward. As a Day Trader, this is an opportunity for a counter-trend trade, because it is obvious that we are in a downtrend at the 4-hour chart. TRADE DIRECTION: Long KEY LEVEL: 81.00 TRIGGER SIGNAL: Bullish pin bar (yellow arrow), supported by other bullish reversal candles (green arrows). Entry: 81.00 Stop Loss: 80.00 Profit Target: 82.00 (100 ticks of profit achieved) Risk to Reward Ratio - 1:1
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by TheDemonTrader
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
1
Oil, where are you headed? This week our eyes fall on the crude oil market. From our previous article, Cracking the Crack Spread , we know that crude oil and gasoline hold a special relationship. Since gasoline is extracted from crude oil, the spread between the two futures should not diverge too much. Yet, in the past few weeks, we have observed a deviation in their prices with the Crude Oil/Gasoline ratio peaking. Futures Fundamentals Open interest refers to the number of open contracts in the market. It serves as a measure of liquidity, activity and more importantly, interest in the security. While trading volume refers to the number of contracts traded each day. The decline in both prices and open interests indicates the liquidation of long positions. Together with a low trading volume, this can indicate a bear market. Economic Outlook Although the federal reserve (Fed) is likely done with its hikes in this hiking cycle, it intends to keep interest rates higher for longer. Coupled with continued tightness in the labor market, sticky inflation and inflating cost of debt, growth would be dampened. One way to back up this view is to look at the US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI). The PMI is widely used as a leading indicator to anticipate changing economic trends. Furthermore, there tends to be a positive association with PMI and commodities year-on-year change. Given the latest PMI value, it points to a negative economic outlook, with year-on-year crude oil prices playing catch up. It is good to be mindful that if the Fed has indeed concluded its hiking cycle, there is a greater likelihood for the dollar to weaken rather than strengthen. As crude oil is quoted in USD, a weaker dollar would lead to a more expensive contract. Therefore, there are upside risks to crude oil prices. Supply Factors US crude oil production reaches record high levels. In conjunction with other non-OPEC countries’ record production, they have been upholding the supply despite facing cuts from OPEC. This could possibly explain why oil prices fell on Oct 4th when OPEC confirmed its cuts until the end of the year. However, we also see the number of oil rigs in the US on a decline, which may hinder any higher levels of production. Also, there is the debate whether production from non-OPEC countries will be outpaced by OPEC’s cut, leading to the materialization of a supply deficit. Volatility Historically, the energy sector is known for its volatility. In comparison to the S&P 500, crude oil appears to be more volatile. In the chart above we look at the maximum year-on-year change in the S&P500 and marked that range on the year-on-year crude oil prices. Here, the wider range that crude oil trades becomes much more obvious compared to the S&P 500. This effect could likely stem from the fact that oil, unlike equities, is affected by a myriad of complex factors at any given time, from supply/demand to geopolitical, environmental and many more. Gold and crude oil tend to be positively associated. Rising oil prices place upward pressure on inflation leading to precious metals to appreciate as investors flock to “store of value” assets. Other than store of value, gold also acts as a form of safe haven asset, where investors take shelter in gold against uncertainty. With gold now trading significantly higher than oil, it appears that markets are expecting higher levels of fear and uncertainty, which could translate to higher volatility in oil. So where is oil heading? Here we find ourselves in a limbo, considering potential breakout risk from geopolitical tensions the downside risk from the likely turnover of the economy, a fading PMI pointing to oil weakness, and overextended oil prices when looking at the spread complex with gasoline. In times like this, when risk could extend on either side, a long straddle options position could allow us to harness profits in the event of a volatile move, in either direction. To express our view, we can set up long straddle position by buying one at-the-money call and put option that expire in Feb 2024. Given the last price of CLZ3 is 82, we will purchase the two options at the strike price of 81.50. The premiums for the call and put options are 5.39 and 4.89 points respectively. In total, our premium would be 10.28 points. As a rough gauge of the potential for profitability, it might help to look at the volatility in oil prices. For the selected strike, ignoring the effects of options Greeks, the price on expiration would have to move roughly 12.7% in either direction. In the chart above, the bottom figure shows the rolling 3-month change in oil prices, with the red band marking the 12.7% higher & lower range. Here we see oil continually swinging past this level, highlighting the potential for this strategy to play out. In this setup, it should also be noted that the maximum loss on the position is the premium paid on the initial setup, which is 10.43 points. The breakeven levels are above 92 or below 71 on option expiration day, as seen in the chart above. Each 0.01 point move in crude oil options is for 10 USD. CME also has a handy strategy simulator allowing you to construct the option strategy and simulate future prices on your position's P&L. Above are two potential scenarios if the price of crude oil remains close to flat on expiration day, or if it trades lower on expiration day, alongside a diagram showing the effect on the option position's P&L. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com www.cmegroup.com
NYMEX:CL1!
by inspirante
🛢️ Crude Oil Hits $93 - 💰 Why 88$ is ok for Saudi Arabia 🌴Hey Traders, Professor here! 🤟 You might recall my bullish call on oil at $70, based on fundamentals and geopolitical moves. Fast forward, and here we are at $93 a barrel. But is this the ceiling, or is there more room to grow? Let's dissect. 🛢️🔍 The Resistance at $93: More Than Just a Number 🛑 Oil has rocketed to $93, and I'm seeing this as a strong resistance point. It's not just a psychological barrier; it's also a key level when you look at Fibonacci retracements and historical price action. Could this be the turning point for a retracement? 🤔 My Oil Long at $70 Post : Inflation's Role: The Double-Edged Sword 📈 While rising oil prices have been great for traders and certain economies, they also fuel inflation. And let's be clear: Inflation is a beast that the U.S. and Europe can't afford to ignore. High oil prices are now a geopolitical concern, and there will be pressure to tame them, especially as they contribute to rising inflation. 🌍 Inflation and Oil post Post Saudi Arabia's Profit Game: Low Costs, High Margins 😁 Here's where it gets interesting. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait enjoy production costs as low as $5.40 per barrel. Even at the higher end, it's just around $10. So, whether oil is at $88 or $93, they're raking in massive profits. This low-cost advantage gives them a competitive edge, especially when other countries are grappling with significantly higher production costs. 🇸🇦💰 The High Dollar's Role 🇺🇸 The dollar has been on a tear lately, and it's worth noting its impact on oil prices. A strong dollar usually puts downward pressure on commodities priced in USD, like oil. This could be another factor contributing to potential resistance at $93. The US Dollar & The Wolverine: What's Next? The Road Ahead 🤷‍♂️ Keep a close eye on potential retracement levels. Fibonacci and moving averages could be your guide here. 88$ to 93$ range is what i would most likely expect📉 Geopolitical events are always wild cards. Any tensions or agreements could send oil prices soaring or plummeting. 🌍 Don't lose sight of Bitcoin. It remains my go-to asset for hedging against inflation and market volatility. 🚀 Trade wisely, folks. My charts are always here if you need a second opinion. 📊 (ps if the price breaks over 95$ we might need to run for the great reset hills!) One Love, The FXPROFESSOR 💙
TVC:USOILShort
by FX_Professor
13
WTI OIL Head and Shoulders within A Channel Up.WTI Oil (USOIL) eventually formed the Channel Up we projected on our most recent (see chart below) analysis 2 weeks ago: As the price is below both the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we spot the completion of the Right Shoulder of a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern inside that Channel. We will not short however before the price closes a 4H candle below the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up. Technically the H&S targets the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (75.00) but for the time being, we will settle for a 79.00 target, which will be marginally above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and 1.5 Fibonacci extension. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
2
USOIL Trading IdeaBased on Simple Technical Analysis ( Trendline + Support & Resistance ) Risk Disclaimer: Please be advised that I am not telling anyone how to spend or invest their money. Take all of my analysis as my own opinion, as entertainment, and at your own risk. I assume no responsibility or liability for any errors or omissions in the content of this page, and they are for educational purposes only. Any action you take on the information in these analysis is strictly at your own risk. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Past results are not indicative of future returns. Good luck :-)
FX:USOILLong
by ShahedZare
Brent OIL in USD until April 2024 + some projections into 2025 Weekly timeframe suggests that BRENT is in its second half accumulation area, which will last until April 2024. Inside the accumulation area OIL will in the range of USD 79-96, bottoming in the mid of December 2023 and topping in the end of February 2024. The last bottom of accumulation phase will happen in the mid of April at the level of around USD 90, but no lower than USD 87. End of April will mark a major breakout from the accumulation phase starting a new sequence of higher highs, the first is expected around the level of USD 98. Followed by a quick retest of USD 93-96 range ending in the beginning of July 2024. The long awaited OIL bullrun is likely to start in July 2024 and last until mid September 2025 reaching USD 213 level.
VELOCITY:BRENT
by discarding