WTI CRUDE OIL: Critical triple Support level. Huge downside beloWTI Crude Oil got heavily rejected on the 1D MA200 on Friday (the 1D RSI also on the oversold 70.000 level), the long term technical Resistance of the asset, and now the 1D timeframe is very close to turning neutral (RSI = 55.9310, MACD = 1.200, ADX = 35.829) for the first time since July 5th.
Today the price has hit three key support levels, the HL trendline since the bug rally started, the 1D MA100 and the 4H MA50. Practically, a candle close under the 1D MA100, is a sell extension validation and we will see to target first the 1D MA50 (TP1 = 71.75) and secondly the S1 (TP2 = 66.80).
As long as the Triple Support holds, we will buy since the risk is very low and target the 1D MA200 again (TP = 76.90).
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Crude Oil
Buying The Dips in Crude Oil CL1!Crude Oil is the market to watch right now as everyone has turned complacent with inflation slowing. If CL starts to rally that can change the inflation story very quickly and potentially get a lot of trader off guard. Fundamentally CL has a lot of reasons to rally according to many of the Macro Traders I follow. Technically CL also has a bullish look as it has started to firm up above it's Auto-Anchored VWAP for the year, above the VWAP's from the recent swing high and lows and above my key neutral area on my Beacon Indicator. In this video I lay out how I will be playing CL in the coming days/weeks. Cheers, DELI
Crude Oil (WTI): Key Levels to Watch This Week 🛢️
Here is my latest structure analysis for WTI Crude Oil.
Resistance 1: 77.1 - 77.3 area
Resistance 2: 78.6 - 79.9 area
Support 1: 72.3 - 73.1 area
Support 2: 66.8 - 67.3 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading this week.
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Oil: Sellers setting up for further downside? Today's focus: Oil
Pattern – 1st leg Pull back
Possible targets – 72.75
Support –
Resistance –
After Friday’s strong move lower, could we see further selling before oil stabilises after last week’s firm rally back to the $80 Handel? That’s the question I am asking in today’s video, and if we do see further selling, we will also be looking for signs that buyers are looking to form a new continuation higher, maintaining the first leg break out.
Have a great day and good trading.
Any nae sayers??USD/Chinese Yuan has been showing dovish signals during the 3rd qtr and after the news on July 12, 2023 (which can be located on the blue location tab) the economy shows to be slowing down significantly.
After news printed on the 12th of July 23, price made a clear decision just 4 hours later we can start to see some clear institutional movement with the dovish engulfing candlestick and a day later structure appears to continue downside pressure especially with the Pin bar holding at a resistance. This could lead to a further drop in price.
Even though this pin bar has printed i'm still looking at price for a sell off from the previous news update for a stronger move to the downside. I will be patiently waiting for this move to happen.
38 Pip S/L
558 Pip T/P
Let me know what you think?
Crude in the middle of an impulsive recoveryCrude oil is in a nice uptrend, making some very clear extended impulse from 70.20 area where fifth wave can be extended. We also see price now approaching the 161.8% Fib target, so intraday traders should be aware of some slowdown, possibly back into wave four before uptrend may resume. If wave four is really near, then nice support is at 75.32.
Also, at the same time USDCAD and USDNOK pairs can stay bearish.
WTI CRUDE OIL The 1day & 1week MA50 form a huge Resistance ZoneWTI Crude Oil / USOIL reached today the 1day MA50 for the first time since mid April.
That April contact resulted in a strong rejection to the 1week MA200 that (even though it had breaches) has closed all weekly candles over it, establishing itself as the long term Support.
The long term Resistance is the 1week MA50, which is marginally higher than the 1day MA50, with the two forming the strongest Resistance Zone for the long term.
The 1week MA50 has had two clear rejections in October and November, at the early stages of the formation of the Channel Down.
This pattern still holds and the price is approaching its top. At the same time the 1day RSI is approaching the top of its Channel Up. The two have aligned tops and bottoms.
Sell now since the price is already inside this huge Resistance Zone. Target the 1week MA200 at 68.50.
Previous chart:
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CL - Crude Oil is respecting the Lower extremes ProjectionI've been often asked, how I choose the A/B/C Points when I apply a Pitchfork.
Just use context and learn the Swing rules.
Then you cannot go wrong, and you will get the correct information from the market when you throw a Pitchfork on the Chart.
Be open minded, but don't force your meaning to the market. The market is doing what he wants.
So, we look for a change in behavior.
Something obvious. FACTS.
Don't FOMO.
There's plenty for you, even if you miss a couple points or eve $s.
Let's put the stalking Hat on.
Natural Gas - The Girl Who Hopes You Remember HerSince the end of February, and more accurately mid-March, the volatility on Natural Gas has all but disappeared.
This is a good thing if you're bullish, because it's both consolidation and indicates accumulation.
It's also a good thing from a sentiment/narrative perspective because everyone has all but forgotten trying to gamble on BOIL.
Moreover, it's strange for Natural Gas to trade so cheaply in light of the situation with the conflict between NATO and Vladimir Putin and how it impacts both China and Xi Jinping and Europe.
I've said in many of my previous natural gas calls that $10 wasn't the top. And if that supposition is true, the fact that we're trading at such an enormous discount for so long is really notable.
Just look how big the discount is on the monthly:
One of the core tenants of 2023's thus far price action being a likely bottom is that Natty has swept out the $2 mark twice, the last time in April.
Since, it's then made a series of higher lows and now looks certain to make higher highs.
Moreover, on the weekly we see any red bars are continually traded through to the upside by the MM.
All of this comes while the algorithm has been playing around the December of 2020 monthly pivot.
The fact that $2 has been protected so strictly and that the high of the year was set at only $3, which it touched for only a day, a Friday, to start March tells us that the target is more likely to be up than it is to be down.
It is very hard for me to tell you if Natty is going to do $3.2, $3.5, $4, or $4.5. It may just double top at $3 and then go back to $1.8.
What I can say is that getting over $4 ought to have a high degree of resistance. However, if the algs push it through, it's going to take off and take off in a hurry.
One thing that is true is that you really should not be bearish on energy.
I also believe that the Nasdaq in specific is about to correct so violently that it's going to set a new low.
We may be in a scenario right now where we see something like:
Equities correct
USD up
Energy up
Metals up
10Y yield up
VIX up
Instead of the usual everything down and everything up all at once shenanigans.
The world is running out of energy. Oil is not a bear market.
Worldwide and US production peaked in 2018 and hasn't come back.
A lot of the "oil" that is included in daily production numbers isn't actually crude oil but is "natural gas liquids" and other lesser substances.
In a climate where mankind is using more and more electricity and temperatures are getting hotter and hotter, there is no reason to believe that natural gas should stay this cheap.
How hot will July, August, and September be in North America?
Natural gas _is_ electricity. It's also plastics. It's also what the places that get winter use to fuel their furnaces to stay alive.
Are you really expecting $1.50?
Time to enter Crude longs again? Perfect entry point from technical point of view, I suggested this trade before too.
You should target $71 and $74 as TPS.
The market will tighten in the second half of 2023 partly due to ongoing OPEC+ supply cuts and Saudi Arabia's voluntary reduction for July. The combination of robust demand reduced exports, and a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories suggests a positive outlook for the crude oil market.
Crude Oil (WTI): Top-Down Analysis & Trading Plan 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is retesting a broken horizontal key level.
The price formed a cup and handle pattern, approaching that.
The neckline of the pattern was broken.
I believe that the market will resume the growth soon
Goals: 73.8 / 74.4
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Crude Oil (WTI): Bullish Outlook Explained 🛢️
WTI Crude Oil is very bullish since the end of June.
The market even managed to break and close above a key horizontal resistance on a daily.
The broken structure turned into support now.
That constitutes a safe zone to buy from.
I believe that probabilities will be high that the market will keep growing.
Next resistance is 74.7
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Bottom For oil was May 2023. Oil prices are prepared for strong growth to the upside. NYMEX:CL1! made its bottom in May of 2023.
Three reasons for this case to be made.
Russia cutting OPEC+ production by 500,000. The original balance from OEPC+ was 450,000 barrels of surplus. No Suprise that they cut it by exactly 500,000.
U.S. Now focused on SPR replenishing as opposed to releases.
Strong GDP solidifies no recession, and high employment solidifies strength in the consumer.