US Oil - Lows yet to comeHello traders!
During the last post we were tracking a triple three correction in cycle wave 2 for OIL. After the 5 legs up from 64, we admitted the possibility of a bottom being in before our expectations (that were at GZ and blue wolfe wave completion around 57-60). However, the impulsive decline we just got from the local top suggested the 5 leg up from 64 to 83.8 were the final leg of an irregular flat in wave b of Z. We are therefore tracking more downside before looking for a buy opportunity. We will carefully study price action in order to assess possible targets. Given the current structure, yellow box is gaining probability with respect to purple box.
Primary count on chart.
We will update here!
Best
GMR
Crude Oil
USOILSPOT H4 | Bounce from support?USOILSPOT could fall towards a key overlap support and potentially reverse from this level. Price could hit our buy entry at 69.311 and bounce up from here. Our stop loss will be at 67.234 which is an overlap support. The take profit level will be at 73.212 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Rebound on Higher Lows expected. Target 4H MA200.WTI Crude Oil is trading around the 4H MA50, testing the harmonic HL trendline as on the previous bottom rebound on March 24th. The 4H technicals turned red (RSI = 39.049, MACD = -0.190, ADX = 28.123), which again is consistent with the March pullback. We are adding a new buy here, targeting the 4H MA200 (TP = 76.50).
Prior idea:
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US Crude oil heading for $90In the current situation of global energy crisis, Target of $90 for WTI Crude oil seems pretty legit in the coming month and if situation worsen then $110 for sure in coming 6 months
Reasons for bull run:
- energy crisis leading to low supply high demand
- big volume coming in bullish rally than in the downfall in intraday chart
- No positive news to overcome the supply issue
WTI OIL We will buy after a CPI pull backWTI Oil crossed over the Falling Resistance today and is establishing the price action over the MA50 (4h).
On the previous bullish leg to Resistance (1), the price had one last pull back before extending the rise.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy when the RSI (4h) gets 40.00 again.
Targets:
1. 76.00 (the MA50 (4h)).
Tips:
1. The ultimate long term Resistance is the MA200 (1d), which last time rejected Oil at 83.50. Right now is at 81.00 and declining.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
USOILSPOT H4 | Heading into resistance?USOILSPOT is rising towards a key overlap resistance and potentially reverse from this level. Price could hit our sell entry at 74.109 and drop down from here. Our stop loss will be at 76.666. The take profit level will be at 71.141 which is an overlap support.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Crude oil is steadily making profits every dayCombined with the trend of the hourly chart, U.S. oil continued to stay high and fluctuate within a narrow range after pulling up yesterday. This state indicates that the market may rebound again, but whether the top can break through 74, and whether it can press 75.5-7 is irrelevant. It's too easy to judge, after all, this wave of recovery still seems very sudden.
In terms of operation, choose to wait and see conservatively within the day, and try to operate long and then short if you are aggressive, that is, a retracement around 72.2-72 within the day, aggressive short positions and long positions, set a stop loss at 71.5, and target at 73.5-74. Hold a single to see the 74 competition, and if it breaks through, keep watching the 75.5-7 test expectation.
There may be resistance around 74 above the top within the day, but whether you can fight short or short depends on the actual situation. However, 75.5-7 above can still be regarded as the key pressure. If the pressure measurement reaches this point today, you can try short-term participation.
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WTI CRUDE OIL Still with bullish momentum but sell at the topWTI Crude Oil is one of the best performing assets for us (check previous ideas) and is now rebounding to the 1day MA100 at least.
Buy this short term momentum and add one sell at 76.50 and a second at 79.50, approximately on the 1day MA200.
Note that a 1day RSI at around 60.00 is most often a Sell Signal.
Long term sell Target 64.50.
Previous chart:
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CRUDE OIL TO HIT $160?😳 (UPDATE)Both the Dollar & Oil are moving in a negative correlation with each other, which fits with our long term bias for both markets🦾 The Dollar is weakening & pushing institutional investments into commodities such as Oil.
Oil flew up 30% from its low, currently retracing down but still up 18%. Use this chance to DCA average into buy positions if you haven't already. I posted the original analysis back in February, which you can find attached below.
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CRUDE OIL (WTI) Key Levels to Watch This Week 🛢
Here is my fresh structure analysis for WTI Crude Oil for this week.
Resistance 1: 73.88 - 74.3 area
Resistance 2: 76.56 - 77.10 area
Resistance 3: 78.60 - 79.85 area
Resistance 4: 83.2 - 83.5 area
Support 1: 67.90 - 68.05 area
Support 2: 64.4 - 66.9 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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USOILSPOT H4 | Resistance at50% FiboUSOILSPOT is rising towards a key overlap resistance and potentially reverse from this level. Price could hit our sell entry at 75.273 and drop down from here. Our stop loss will be at 77.268 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. The take profit level will be at 72.883 which is an overlap support.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Crude oil trading clear tipsThe current rising pattern remains intact, and the bullish trend will continue today, and we need to pay attention to around 72.70 in the middle, where there may be a washout during the rise. For crude oil operation, it is recommended to buy at 70.50, stop loss at 70, and target 72~72.70.
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Oil One Step From a Major Buy SignalThursday brings us a short update on brent oil. This instrument has been heavily bombarded recently by the macro data, not only for oil, but also the macro data for the USD.
Let’s start with the one for oil. Yesterday’s inventories. Data came in hot (bullish for oil) as the number were significantly below expectation, showing a decrease of 4.5 mln barrels from the previous week. Well, how about that?
As for the USD, yesterday’s less hawkish FED was bearish for the dollar, so again, bullish for instruments quoted in the dollar like our oil. So, we had two positive sets of information for oil and yes, brent used it wisely.
Oil One Step From a Major Buy Signal
As was widely expected, the Federal Reserve raised its policy rate by 75 basis points (bps) at the July meeting, taking the target rate range to 2.25%–2.5%. This is just below the Fed’s estimate for a neutral policy stance in the longer run (2.5%). At the press conference, Chair Jerome Powell said that “modestly restrictive” monetary policy is warranted by the current economic fundamentals, including elevated inflation, and mentioned that another outsize rate hike may be necessary at the next meeting in September in order to ensure monetary policy is restrictive.
The overall movement of gold prices was bearish since inflation numbers rose and the U.S dollar index moved bullishly. However, there might be a change in the situation as gold prices currently moving upward while the U.S dollar index stalled and the stock market is trading slightly lower. If gold prices could continue the bullish movement and close above $1,800 then the bullish trend is set to continue.
Silver prices bounced from the $18.50 support level and made a bullish close yesterday. There is a bullish continuation in today’s trading session which brings the price near the $20.00 handle. If the price could maintain the bullish pressure and continue upward to close above $21.35 then the price will start a new bullish trend.
Crude oil prices situation is not good for the bull as the price could not maintain the bullish pressure. There is a bullish attempt today but the price currently trading below the opening level. If the price is pushed lower and closes below $95.25 then traders will prepare for a bearish continuation.
How far will OIL GO UP?
Well, if you ak this question then you are no professional, experienced trader, but a naive one, and have not understoad the purpose of trading.
Keep it simple. Keep your stops alert.