Crudeoilforecast
Crude oil important levelsOn monthly time frame (Chart A) crude is in a retracement of an uptrend, and important levels are marked in colour blue, and currently it took support in an important level at 7835. Again, if it fails to sustain, and move downside from here then below 5796 it will be termed as bearish, which is on monthly time frame. 9158 will be an important level, after crossing this level only crude will be termed as bearish again (Monthly time frame).
Now if we see in daily time frame (chart B), it was in down trend, which was basically the retracement of the monthly uptrend, has not taken a halt, and may take reversal from here (forming tops 1 & 2). Important levels are marked in the chart B (colour purple), which will act as resistance. And if it unable to continue its up move and take a reversal, closing of a daily candle below 7670 (marked colour green in chart B) level then it will again be a continuation of downtrend.
*Observation purely based on price action*
Crude Oil Sell Setup and confirmationCrude Oil has already ended up with its bullish movement and made a breakout in both D1 and H4 time frame. now Its ready for the downtrend journey. The price already broke the support and also retested the support.
We are expecting down trend now unless any fundamental news comes. Few weeks before EU put ban on Russian OIL and Few other fundamental news released as well. For that reason, OIL was sky rocketed and now market is getting stable.
Technical Analysis:
In 17th June, market was closed at price 110.40. from the cloud breaking strategy, we can see it started to create down-trend. Again, 110-110.40 was working as one of the strongest support for OIL and a successful breakout can lead oil till 106.02 and 99.26.
Signals:
Crude OIL
SELL from 110.00
SL# 113.13
TP# 106.00
Crude OIL (XTIUSD) AnalysisTechnical Facts: Considering Technical analysis, Crude Oil already touched the second highest price in this week. now it’s high time for retrace. The Immediate support level is 117.80 to 118.20. A Strong break can lead the oil price till 114.18 which is the strongest support of 114.18.
Fundamental Facts:
Russia is one of the largest producer of Crude Oil in the world. a recent ban was imposed on Russia in 3rd June, 2022 by European Union. When supply decreases, demand increases and the price goes up. if EU cant convince Saudi Arabia to produce more oil and make a balance of the demands, the price might go up till 130 as well. therefore, the analysis might be invalid.
Signals:
CRUDE OIL
SELL STOP 117.80
SL# 119.61
TP# 114.18
USOIL Crude oil : Russian oil ban, what's next? 4.5The pennant consolidation opened the week with a breakout and a retest confirmation of the breakout.
Consolidation took place between Jan - April 2022, With a high of ~128 and a low of ~88.
The breakout is a major bullish technical alert, indicating new daily up-trend.
Resistance levels on the new up-trend are:
*106.80 - 108.50
*114.60 - 116.40
*125 - 127.80
Retest potential to the downside:
*Consolidation retest - 100-101.50
*Consolidation support floor - 96.50-98.20
A break below consolidation may lead to trend reversal, but for now bullish indications on full alert!
Russian oil sanctions are increasing and we have 1 million barrels a day off circulation as of now, this amount is expected to double soon, Bernard Looney, CEO of BP oil company says.
This is a fundamental trigger for the technical breakout.
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WTI Crude Oil - What a surprise! Incredible! 29.4The consolidation period of close to 12 weeks is likely coming to an end with a breakout up!
A close above 102.90 (triangle consolidation resistance level) allowed the price action to proceed with up-trend targeting:
*108.30-108.50
*114.80-115
*124
*132
Width of triangle is usually the target of the breakout in terms of size of movement
This could make sense fundamentally as inflation continues to grow together with Russian oil supply fears which is likely to fall by 20% , Europe may struggle with oil supply and this offsets China's lock down for now.
Of course this may be a fake out, weekly close and next weeks open is likely to call the bluff if price returns to below 100 with a daily close.
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Oil is the keyOil has respected the 92 support and looking at the current geopolitical situation, it seems bullish . Now for a good entry , the 98 level could be good for a long entry even for long term holding as it might go higher this time due to geopolitical situationss, Entry around the price of 100 dollars can also be a good entry with stop loss around 99
XTIUSD LONG - Buy Entry - H4 ChartXTIUSD LONG - Buy Entry - H4 Chart
Order Buy Stop
Symbol: XTIUSD - Crude Oil
Timeframe: H4
Type: BUY
Entry Price: Buy @ Break of 96.562 - Buy Stop
TP - Resistance @ 105.835
TP - Resistance @ 99.686
R1 Y1 - Support @ 91.340