Crudeoilforecast
Week Ahead: Gas demand weaker
* Oil Formed a descending Triangle. Giving more bearish confirmation of target of $60
* FED giving signs of another 75-point basis hike. Recession fears are bearish for oil
* Demand slows down worries due to China’s zero COVID policy and OPEC+ cutting production
* Energy Price Cap
oil gapped up from opening on September 4th. Extended 3% by September 5th. Then losing almost 10% of gains. Reaching the price of $90 on September 5th, and dropping to $81 on September 8th. Then ended the week with a 5% gain. Closing weekly at the lowest since January 17th starting week.
Crude oil inventories rose last week by 8.844 million. Indicating demand is weakening. It was expected inventories were to fall by just 250,000 barrels.
I am anticipating oil to gap down during opening today. I am waiting to see how it will react to this trend line if it is going to continue down. Broke out of the descending triangle. Looks like it came back up for the last touch
On Sunday, September 4, 2022, Russia announced the closure of its main gas supply pipeline to Europe. This spiked fears into the energy market. Both Natural gas and crude oil both gapped 1% before the closing of September 4th. Monday, September 5th the OPEC+ held a meeting. Production was cut by 100,000 barrels a day for the month of October. OPEC+ is already below meeting production. Supply fears pushed Oil up 5%. After oil digested the news it fell from $90 to about $81.14.
Concerns of sluggish global demand outweighed the warning of President Vladimir Putin about the potential withdrawal of oil form of Russian Energy. Also new COVID lockdowns in China. Chinese imports fell 9.8% in August. The OPEC+ cut was larger for Asia and Europe indicating weaker anticipated demand.
Russian President Vladimir Putin to halt all oil and gas supplies if price caps are imposed on Russian energy resources. Hours later EU proposed to cap Russian gas.
The OPEC+ cut was done due to the possibility of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran. This deal is expected to release over 1 million BPD of supply into the market
My swing Full Margin Setup on WTI CRUDE OILThis setup taught by my awesome teacher, a legendary trader from Malaysia, Mansor Sapari.
But man, to get this setup, you need to have a very very strong patience. Of course this setup is not my only setup to trade.
In order to get a complete setup:
Must have
-fakeout
-compression
-cap price zone
-support resistance
-supply zone
-resistance become support
-breakout
-double maru candlestick
-divergence on MACD/AO
-some times it goes well if there's a news (fundamental aspect)
Sorry, my english is not very good to explain. But I'll to explain it in video next time.
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CRUDEOIL SEPTEMBER, 2022 LEVELSCrudeOil is currently in a range and giving volatile moves either sides based on market sentiments!
Important Levels to long and short have been marked with targets on either side! Longer TF is currently neutral and a breach of either side marked levels will trigger fresh move of 300-400 points!
Crude oil important levelsOn monthly time frame (Chart A) crude is in a retracement of an uptrend, and important levels are marked in colour blue, and currently it took support in an important level at 7835. Again, if it fails to sustain, and move downside from here then below 5796 it will be termed as bearish, which is on monthly time frame. 9158 will be an important level, after crossing this level only crude will be termed as bearish again (Monthly time frame).
Now if we see in daily time frame (chart B), it was in down trend, which was basically the retracement of the monthly uptrend, has not taken a halt, and may take reversal from here (forming tops 1 & 2). Important levels are marked in the chart B (colour purple), which will act as resistance. And if it unable to continue its up move and take a reversal, closing of a daily candle below 7670 (marked colour green in chart B) level then it will again be a continuation of downtrend.
*Observation purely based on price action*
Crude Oil Sell Setup and confirmationCrude Oil has already ended up with its bullish movement and made a breakout in both D1 and H4 time frame. now Its ready for the downtrend journey. The price already broke the support and also retested the support.
We are expecting down trend now unless any fundamental news comes. Few weeks before EU put ban on Russian OIL and Few other fundamental news released as well. For that reason, OIL was sky rocketed and now market is getting stable.
Technical Analysis:
In 17th June, market was closed at price 110.40. from the cloud breaking strategy, we can see it started to create down-trend. Again, 110-110.40 was working as one of the strongest support for OIL and a successful breakout can lead oil till 106.02 and 99.26.
Signals:
Crude OIL
SELL from 110.00
SL# 113.13
TP# 106.00
Crude OIL (XTIUSD) AnalysisTechnical Facts: Considering Technical analysis, Crude Oil already touched the second highest price in this week. now it’s high time for retrace. The Immediate support level is 117.80 to 118.20. A Strong break can lead the oil price till 114.18 which is the strongest support of 114.18.
Fundamental Facts:
Russia is one of the largest producer of Crude Oil in the world. a recent ban was imposed on Russia in 3rd June, 2022 by European Union. When supply decreases, demand increases and the price goes up. if EU cant convince Saudi Arabia to produce more oil and make a balance of the demands, the price might go up till 130 as well. therefore, the analysis might be invalid.
Signals:
CRUDE OIL
SELL STOP 117.80
SL# 119.61
TP# 114.18