Crudeoilshort
US OIL drops? Hey guys, hope everyone is doing great, we are going to continue our weekend analysis with USOIL in 30 minutes timeframe. as you can see, we are seeing the price is going through the Wyckoff accumulation on this particular timeframe.
I am expecting the price to test the supply zone before dropping off to lower levels to mitigate the unmitigated demand zone that was left. Even though my short-term bias is bearish, I will be expecting to see the bullish trend since we have made the break of structure earlier on bigger timeframes. I will consider this drop as a mitigation for now.
Oil Trade AnalysisOil has reached an important price level, which will determine the trend for the following week (at the very least). From here I see only three possible scenarios, starting with the most likely one to occur.
1) Price pulls back from the resistance level, as I presume a lot of people will be shorting the high level of 25th October. Alternatively, it can consolidate in this area until all the shorts are absorbed. Then, it pierces through that level and blasts up. If you are breakout trader/investor, that would obviously be the moment to buy. I probably would wait for some pullback, just in case we see scenario 3, discussed below.
2) Price bounces off that resistance, consolidates for a bit and then drops down, in which case I am looking to open a short position. Pretty straightforward.
3) Fake-out, although most unlikely out of the three, still quite possible. A sudden spike up will trigger the stop losses of the short players and will invite the breakout traders to open their longs. A quick drop afterwards would kick the latter's stop losses and eventually you are left with a much smaller amount of participants in the move.
This is one of those levels where you don't necessarily set a limit order, but wait and see how price reacts.
Oil Short SetupOIL Weekly Analysis (Short)
Currently price is in the upper part of an ascending channel, approaching a downtrend line. There's confluence of three levels here - the descending trendline, the ascending trendline of the current channel and a resistance level.
I am looking for a short position in the $78-$79 area with a relatively tight stop loss slightly above $80. If price does break out from the downtrend line, then the last thing I would like is to short it.
Target is set at the lower trendline in the ascending channel, somewhere around $72, depending on the time it will take the price to retrace back down.
This analysis goes along with the one about $SPX500 , which I just posted. Since there's high correlation and I expect a retracement there, too, I believe we are about to see a pullback.
US oil short position Bears are always welcome in the oil market, we have seen a huge rally for oil in April 2020, some producers have made a big reserve of production.
we always see that the market has always to correct the direction allowing some associated to collect their profits, bulls out bears in. for the next period we find bearish news looming on the horizon,
-Omicron is snappily getting the dominant COVID-19 variant in South Africa lower than four weeks after it was first discovered in the country, with
theU.S. reporting its first case on Wednesday.
-Some had speculated that OPEC+ could pause those additions in an attempt to slow supply growth, now expected to yield a surplus of 3.8 million
BPD by March 2022, according to an internal report seen by Reuters. OPEC+ is likely to make its decision on Thursday.
-The United States, in tandem with several other nations, announced plans in November to release 50 million barrels of its reserves into the market
to try to cool energy prices. Retail gasoline prices have barely changed even as unfinished gasoline futures known as RBOB have dropped sharply.
News resource
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theoilsellers.com
reuters.com
Our position
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Sell position on 63 $-64 $
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73.20 $ -74.40 $ sell limit just in case the price reverses against our position before it continues falling
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Targeting : 55 $-56 $ support area
Oil Short SetupOIL Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $82.90
🟢 Take Profit: $78.42 (2.17)
⛔ Stop Loss: $84.96
Reasoning:
1) Currently an overbought level, expecting a slight cool down after which a new move up should follow, taking us to the entry target.
2) If this setup turns out to be valid, the price should print lower high on the indicator, while making a higher high on the chart.
3) Level is coordinated with previous support, which should act as resistance now.
4) Upper trendline on a descending channel.
Oil Short SetupOIL Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $82.95
🟢 Take Profit: $79.49 (2.22)
⛔ Stop Loss: $84.51
Reasoning:
1) Yesterday's trades went as planned, unfortunately, I wasn't behind my desk to assess the volume and take them, but If you did, good for you. We are approaching the middle trendline, so I expect a small retracement after that point.
2) I am also expecting a divergence to form somewhere around the entry level.
3) Stop Loss is pretty loose since I want to give the trade some space to breathe With that being said, bear in mind the spread and the weekend fees, which may eat up your profits.
Oil Short SetupOIL Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $84.72
🟢 Take Profit: $80.03 (3.58R)
⛔ Stop Loss: $86.03
Reasons:
- I'm expecting the price to bounce off the first level (marked for a long position) and continue trending up until it reaches the upper trendline again.
- So far the price has been respecting this ascending channel
- I am not taking the long position, but I've marked it so that I have more confidence in my short if the price does behave in the above-described way
Oil Short SetupOil Short Setup
🔵 Entry Level: $82.58
🟢 Take Profit: $79.39
⛔ Stop Loss: $84.29
Reasons:
- So far the price is respecting the ascending channel;
- I expect an overbought level on the PVS Indicator by the time the price reaches the upper trendline;
- Volume is not supporting the up movement;