CL1! - Will june WTI contract repeat the fate of May contractOil moves is really fascinating, after expiration of the May contract on WTI which fell to - $40, June entered into the game and already managed to collapse by 42% in a few hours of trading.
And it doesn't look like it's going to stop falling. Interesting for how low in a day?
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Crudeoilwti
USOIL: Doesn't look great, 74% drop, expiration tomorrowI don't trade WTI crude oil, but this drop is tremendous: from $18 to $4.8 for one day and lowest in 4 decades, just wow.
Tomorrow is the expiration of futures.
When pullback?
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Crude Oil To Trade Lower After A Short-term RecoveryCrude Oil daily chart above revealed that the downtrend since January 8, 2020, high is unfolding as a five-wave impulse. The pattern is labeled (i)-(ii)-(iii)-(iv)-(v), where the sub-waves of wave (iii) is also visible. Wave ii of (iii) was a sharp pattern, and wave iv of (iii) unfolded as a sideways triangle pattern.
The Wave theory states that a three-wave correction in the opposite direction follows every impulse. So, the decline to $20 on March 18 must be the end of wave (iii) of the five-wave impulse pattern.
This, in turn, meant that once the recovery in wave (iv) ended, another selloff in wave (v) would be very likely.
Wave (iv) has the potential to find resistance around 38.2% Fibonacci level that lined up with a resistance zone, which will be a good area to look for a short entry on Oil.
What's your view on Crude Oil?
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaIs there one more low to come for Crude?
With this count wave 3 of 3 (white) touched the 2.0 extension and wave 5 of 3 stopping near the 0.618 extension.
If we are in wave 4 now price could reach $33,92 (0.382) or $37,03 (0.5) before another leg down in wave 5 below $20. Price has already reached 0.236 which is also a common wave 4 level.
WTI CRUDE OIL - complete analysisWTI trades at a three month high currently, around the 60 psychological value.
From a technical perspective, we want to see the USOIL drop from the resistance given by the descending trend line, all the way to the 0.5 fib level of previous daily impulse which also aligns with previous structure.
Previous Daily High 61.05
Previous Daily Low 60.04
Previous Weekly High 60.46
Previous Weekly Low 58.11
Previous Monthly High 58.76
Previous Monthly Low 54.12
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 60.66
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 60.43
Daily Pivot Point S1 60.04
Daily Pivot Point S2 59.53
Daily Pivot Point S3 59.03
Daily Pivot Point R1 61.05
Daily Pivot Point R2 61.55
Daily Pivot Point R3 62.06
Yesterday, the US API weekly statistical bulletin published positive values with Crude +4.7, Cushing -.3, Gasoline +5.6 and Diesel 3.7. So today from the crude oil inventories a pullback is expected.
However, the longer term trend of the WTI is still bullish, especially from the beginning of 2020, we have a strong fundamental reason for it.
OIL: 2020 PRICE FORECAST UPGRADED ON OPEC+ CUTS, IMPROVED ECONOMIC OUTLOOK – JP MORGAN
17 December 2019, 06:44
The conclusions of the report are as following :
The OPEC, Russia and other producers, a group known as OPEC+, have agreed to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020, because of the current forecast of next year's end quarters surplus of 0.6 million barrels per day. In conclusion the US investment bank, JP Morgan raised its oil price outlook for 2020. Next year price target is 63.50.
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Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate on these long term ideas:
Oil breached the long term trendline but stopped at another one (below) and at the 1.414 extension exactly. My theory is the bottom is in here and possibly move up towards $60 again as part of a complex corrective move; a break above $5060 would help.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaUpdate to below idea:
Thinking that a starting wedge maybe forming within a channel up, 5 waves consisting of ABC for each wave which means wave 4 could overlap wave 1; Wave 3 of C (orange) hit 1.272 extension exactly and in the same area as 1.618 of wave 1 (white), could see a pull back towards $52 if this theory is correct.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaPurely a guesstimate as predicting long term is impossible but oil could be in a long term correction (ABC).
Now nearing the end of (b) (shown in bright blue) to the red trendline around the $47 level, before an impulsive move for (c) (of a larger degree B wave) to $95 (point D of the Gartley and between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement of the larger degree A wave), then the larger degree C wave to new lows.
With Gartley removed >
Gartley on its own >