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Crudeoilwti

WTI oil - Oil continues to drift lowerOver the past four months, we repeated that oil prices were peaking and the downside was looming over the oil market. Despite the excess of bullish calls forecasting new ATH for oil prices, we stuck to our bearish bias. Indeed, a few months ago, we set price targets of 100 USD, 95 USD, and 90 USD for USOIL. After hitting the first two price targets, we still remain bearish and maintain a price target of 90 USD for WTI oil. Our views are based upon technical and fundamental factors. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows the daily chart of USOIL. Two moving averages, 20-day SMA and 50-day SMA, reflect the downtrend. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The weekly chart of USOIL shows 20-week SMA and 50-week SMA. The 20-week SMA appears to be reversing to the downside, which is bearish. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
6
WTI oil - The backwardation points to the lower price of oilIn the past three months, we warned investors about the imminent trend reversal in the oil market. Accordingly, we set price targets for USOIL at 100 USD, 95 USD, and 90 USD. Yesterday, our short-term price target of 100 USD was taken out. Due to that, we would like to update our thoughts on USOIL. We continue to be bearish on the asset and expect the volatility to stay persistent throughout the third quarter of 2022. Additionally, we expect the prospect of a global recession and production hikes to impact the price negatively. Our views are also supported by bearish technical developments across daily, weekly, and monthly time frames. Because of that, we would like to update our medium-term price target of 95 USD to the short-term price target; additionally, we would also like to update our long-term price target of 90 USD to the medium-term. Illustration 1.01 WTI oil dropped approximately 25% from its 2022 high to yesterday's low, entering the bear market territory. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. The ADX hints at growing bearish momentum. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows crude oil futures for September 2022. The market backwardation hints at lower prices for oil in the future. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, DM- are all bearish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.03 Illustration 1.03 shows another oil futures contract, but for January 2023. These contracts trade at far less, near the 87 USD price tag. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
17
WTI oil - The uptrend in oil continues to peakExactly one month ago, we stated that the Russian oil ban would lead to an uptick in oil prices. Since then, the European Union has started to take measures concerning its oil dependence on Russia. Meanwhile, WTI oil has risen from 106 USD up to 114 USD, where it trades currently. Despite being bullish in the short-term and medium-term, we also stated (in our previous posts) that we expected the bull market in oil to peak; in addition to that, we set and maintained our long-term price target for USOIL at 90 USD. That also applies today, and we still keep this target. Fundamental factors Our bearish view is based upon several fundamental factors. Among these is the prospect of higher output by the OPEC in the second half of 2022 and the global need for lower oil prices. We expect the U.S. to put pressure on OPEC; there is already a rumor Joe Biden is supposed to ask Saudi Arabia to lower its output. Another fact we consider is that despite the Russian oil ban, new highs were not reached by USOIL. Illustration 1.01 USOIL appears in the downward sloping channel. The breakout above it will suggest more bulishness in the short term. The channel is Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. The same applies to MACD; however, it remains in the bullish territory. DM+ and DM- are also bullish. Overall, the daily time frame is bullish; however, certain technical and fundamental developments raise caution. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows simple support/resistance levels. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+, and DM- remain bullish. Overall, the weekly time frame is bullish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
12
WTI Crude Oil - What a surprise! Incredible! 29.4The consolidation period of close to 12 weeks is likely coming to an end with a breakout up! A close above 102.90 (triangle consolidation resistance level) allowed the price action to proceed with up-trend targeting: *108.30-108.50 *114.80-115 *124 *132 Width of triangle is usually the target of the breakout in terms of size of movement This could make sense fundamentally as inflation continues to grow together with Russian oil supply fears which is likely to fall by 20% , Europe may struggle with oil supply and this offsets China's lock down for now. Of course this may be a fake out, weekly close and next weeks open is likely to call the bluff if price returns to below 100 with a daily close. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you found my idea useful, please like and follow! It would mean a lot to me! I promise to respond to any and all comments/questions - Don't hesitate to ask. Thank you :) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by Exactus
2
USOIL - Choppy but still bearishYesterday, we showed a bearish breakout in the RSI of USOIL. Although, later, during the trading session, this breakout became invalidated, and RSI moved back above the horizontal support. Despite that, we remain bearish on the USOIL, and our price targets stay in place. Illustration 1.01 The idea above shows yesterday's intraday breakout below the support in the RSI on the daily time frame chart. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI, MACD, and Stochastic are all bearish. The same applies to DM+ and DM-. ADX exhibits growth which signals that the bearish momentum is gaining strength. Overall, the daily time frame is bearish. Illustration 1.02 The picture above shows the retracement in the RSI on the daily chart. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI and Stochastic are bearish. MACD performed a bearish crossover recently; however, it remains in the upper area of the bullish zone. DM+ and DM- show bullish conditions in the market, with ADX suggesting their further deterioration. Overall, the weekly time frame is bearish. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tradersweekly
2
WTI Crude Oil - The crossroad you need to know about !18.4 1) The breakout above the down trend-line starting from the highest high , when the price went above 101, marked the beginning of the movement we've seen so far (+$8). 2) There's 2 technical scenario playouts: *Break above 108.20 with a 4h/1d close - 113.40 to 114.64 may be reached in the very short-term *Break below 104.50 with a 4h/1d close - 97.90 to 93.20 may be reached in the very short-term 3) The circles on the chart mark the horizontal levels of support/resistance which play a very important role in price action. 4) Converging lows and highs are so far in the shape of a 'rising wedge" which could mean there's a higher potential for reversal down. 5) Fundamentally, oil is currently acting within an 'emotional' investor phase , which means in simple terms, there's no real shortage of oil so far - And reality may hit the price hard at any given time. OPEC, Aramco, SHELL, USA all have capability to supply the entire world with oil if necessary. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- If you liked my analysis please like and follow , it would mean a lot to me :D If there's any questions please don't hesitate to ask me I would also like to hear suggestions of what you guys would like to see more of I thank you for reading this far and wish all of you successful trading <3 -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BLACKBULL:WTI
by Exactus
1
WTI oil - The EU ban on Russian oil risks higher pricesRecently, we stated that USOIL has bottomed out and is due to drift lower during the rest of the year. We continue to maintain this stance. However, over the past few days, there has been an increase in talks about the EU ban on Russian oil. Indeed, several media outlets reported that the EU is about to proceed with this step. Though, it is just a rumor at the moment. But if the EU manages to ban Russian oil, it will force us to abandon bearish bias for USOIL. Actually, in such a case, we think the oil ban would revive the rally and drag prices higher, possibly reaching a new high. Illustration 1.01 The picture above shows USOIL on the daily time frame. It also shows the resistance at a slope (white line) and the bullish breakout above it (indicated by the yellow arrow). We will look for a potential breakdown in price and invalidation of the bullish breakout. Technical analysis - daily time frame RSI and MACD are bearish. However, MACD is trying to break above 0 points into the bullish zone. If it manages to do so, it will bolster the case for USOIL. Stochastic reversed to the upside and points in the bullish direction. DM+ and DM- show bearish conditions in the market. However, ADX contains a low value, indicating no significant trend. Overall, the daily time frame is neutral. Technical analysis - weekly time frame RSI started to flatten recently. However, its bearish structure remains intact. MACD is in the bullish zone; however, it began to decline first and then flatten. Stochastic is bearish. DM+ and DM- signal bullish conditions in the market. ADX declines, which suggests that the prior bullish trend of a higher degree is weakening. Overall, the weekly time frame is neutral. Illustration 1.02 The picture above portrays the weekly RSI of USOIL. The bearish structure can be seen intact. Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section. DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
TVC:USOIL
by Tradersweekly
2