Crudeoilwti
Crude Oil Start to Reverse from Recent Rally?? Crude oil facing strong resistance level at 76.45.
1. if market broken yesterday low at 75.53, market likely to have short term bearish signal.
2. stochastic level right at overbought level.
expected to have reverse action or so call profit taking from recent surged.
suggestion trade:
Initial short at current level
stop loss (resistance level) 76.50
target profit (support level)
TP1 74.00
TP2 72.00
TP3 70.00
*DISCLAIMER: FOR INFO ONLY. TRADING CARRIES RISKS*
Good Luck & Happy Trading Life.
USOIL HTF AnalysisHello Everyone,
As you know, Crude Oil took a hit during the early stages of pandemic and became relatively cheap for a while. However, with the beginning of 2021, energy crisis occured around the globe and the whole climate crisis made things a lot worse for both consumers and producers. And still, global energy prices continues to go up. Anyway, let's take a look of technical view of things and the price action of crude oil on 2W charts.
Red level had been a great resistance level for a long time and sellers manage to protect this area while pushing the price down, until there are no buyers left, which led to a liquidation cascade back in 2014. And the buyers only managed to push the price up to November 14 levels(which was also a supply level in Weekly tf) and led to another liq cascade thanks to Covid19.
Now, buyers again pushed the price to the exact same level and met with selling pressure and deviated around 75-76 price level. If the buyers manage to hold 76.17(for couple of days) the price will most likely visit the gray area first and will be targeting the red line which was the original sell-off point in the first place. However, if the prices loses the green area and continues to close below, that would be a bad sign and the latest attempt will be left as a deviation and the price will likely search for a liquidity around 57.50 lows and then will continue on it's way to other support levels and the blue demand area as well.
Summary:
In order to continue it's bull-trend, the price should close above 76 and hold above this level.
If the price loses the green box that would be bearish. Area between blue box and green box will turn into a small range at first and that won't be not good sign for both bulls and bears as the price will go flat for a while. Which may turn into a suitable area for range traders.
Technical analysis update: WTI oil (2nd December 2021)Contrary to our expectations, OPEC's meeting resulted in a further drop in the price of USOIL. Sudden drop of more than 2 USD per barrel (to as low as 62.46 USD) occured on headline news regarding the proposal on output hike by Russian Federation.
Sudden selloff is shown on 1 minute chart below:
It took merely 5 minutes for USOIL to drop over 4.3%.
We previously stated that we expected OPEC to ease production as a countermeasure to release of strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. However, the Russian Federation came forward with the opposite proposal at today's OPEC meeting (to boost production by 400 000 bpd, starting in January 2022).
Price retracement after selloff:
It took approximately an hour for price to retrace headline news selloff.
Overall, we continue to see headwinds for WTI oil in the short-term and medium-term ( mainly due to rise in production, global lockdown measures and ongoing politics between OPEC and the U.S.). Technical indicators show extremely oversold conditions on a daily time frame while weekly time frame suggests that bearish structure may continue to develop further for a little longer. Despite that we remain bullish in the long-term.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI broke into the oversold area for the second time now. We expect its reversal and crossover above 30 points. We expect such an occurrence to be accompanied by a bounce in price. MACD continues to develop bearish structure and it is getting overextended. Stochastic, DM+ and DM- also show bearish conditions. ADX seems to be growing rapidly which suggests that correction nears its end (as peak in ADX often coincides with peak in prevailing trend).
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI, MACD and Stochastic are all bearish. DM+ and DM- show the same conditions. ADX decreases which suggests that trend of higher degree is becoming neutral.
Support and resistance
Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while the major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Resistance 1 is at 74.21 USD, Resistance 2 is at 75.47 USD and then Resistance 3 is at 76.95 USD. Medium-term resistance is at 69.60 USD. Short-term resistance appears at 69.21 USD and immediate support/resistance sits at 65.11 USD.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave Idea - UpdateAn update on below idea:
Oil hit the 0.382 extension exactly around $84,07 and has since fallen sharply.
In my opinion this is the start of the correction of the move up from the lows in April 2020 to the highs in October 2021 which could end in the $50 to $58 area.
Just theorizing here that we're currently in the middle of wave 3 of A where A would complete around $61 before a correction before proceeding down towards that $50-$58 level.
Technical analysis update: USOIL/WTI oil (30th November 2021)In our previous idea we noted that we saw short-term and medium-term headwinds for further rise in the price of oil due to ongoing politics between the U.S. and OPEC. We also stated that we expected the OPEC to take countermeasures in response to release of strategic oil reserves by the U.S. and its allies. We await tomorrow's OPEC meeting (and with it more insight into the mentioned countermeasures) which we expect to bolster the bullish case for oil in the long-term. We expect these measures to come in the form of less production quotas for cartel members.
Price of USOIL fell over 21% within the last 36 days. At the moment, technical indicators point to oversold conditions in the oil markets. We think that the current price is extremely attractive for a long position (re)entry. However, we are very cautious as it is possible that the U.S. and its allies will take actions to offset measures taken by the OPEC. If this is to happen, then we expect the price to continue lower towards 65 USD per barrel.
Technical analysis - daily time frame
RSI is oversold. MACD continues to develop bearish structure with no signs of flattening. Stochastic is also bearish. DM+ and DM- indicate a bearish trend with ADX suggesting its strengthening. Overall daily time frame is very bearish. However, some indicators reached an oversold condition already which suggests that end of correction might be in sight. Though, all depends on further measures by the U.S. and OPEC.
Technical analysis - weekly time frame
RSI is bearish. Similarly, Stochastic and MACD are also bearish. DM+ and DM- show bearish condition, however, ADX continues to decline which suggests that trend of higher degree is weakening. It is possible that the price will move in range for a while before a new trend will begin.
Support and resistance
Major resistance level sits at 85.39 USD while the major support level sits at 61.58 USD. Short-term resistance appears at 69.60 USD. Resistance 1 is at 74.21 USD, Resistance 2 is at 75.47 USD and then Resistance 3 is at 76.95 USD. Strong support also appears at 65 USD from a psychological standpoint.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not serve as basis for taking any trade action by individual investor. Your own due dilligence is highly advised before entering trade.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave Idea - UpdateUpdate on an oil theory that started back in November 2020:
This idea was that a wave 4 completed at $33, however the move up accelerated and it quickly came apparent that the move up from $33 was not wave 5:
In March 2021 I took another look with the idea that $33 was the end of wave 2 and the current impulse was indeed wave 3 that could end around the $77 area before a wave 4 correction:
In August 2021 the wave 4 completed and now taking a new high above $76 the 5th wave is confirmed:
In my opinion we are now in the 5th and final wave that could end anywhere between $84 and $97, completing either a larger degree wave 1 or wave A, before a larger degree correction.
Oil 4hrs distribution schematics!Hello my beauties.
Usoil has created some clear distribution schematics targeting the low indicated by the red arrow based on an exact measurement of the volatility in the trading range in red.
If you find this idea to be helpful like, follow, and drop a comment below if you'd want me to analyse a different pair.
Consider supporting me if you think I am providing you with value.
Peace.
Luca, TrickleDownFX
USOIL V shape recovery back to bullish trend for swing tradersThe Crude oil made a spectacular recovery after bouncing of a black sheep on the 4 hour timeframe. I now spotted two bullish trend hikes. First on the H4 and the other on the W1. These serve as a confirmation and I will now place a buy stop right above our Daily structure resistance or place a buy limit on the retest and take profit on our weekly structure resistance.
Crude Oil Elliott Wave IdeaWorking in the oil & gas industry I've always wanted to plot an Elliott Wave idea with oil reaching $100, one that I felt was realistic and not pie in the sky...in my opinion oil is heading that direction now.
The exact 0.382 retracement level from $44,05 to $33,79 at the end of 2020 leads me to believe that was the end of wave 2 and the next retracement will begin at the 1.618 level around $77 for wave 4, before wave 5 towards $100.
I had a similar idea back when this move from $33 started () that this move could be wave 5 but its flown far beyond those levels and has me thinking this is wave 3 we are in now, and its not quite finished yet.
Monday: USOIL - Week 40Hello Traders! Check Related Idea for market context!!
I will update my idea as the trade progresses if any changes occur and my analysis is wrong, or need to be adapted to the new development of price-action.
Thanks for the support!
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