Get started

CRWD

PD: The Forgotten Child Of The SaaS FamilyThe Business Pagerduty is the most overlooked publicly traded company with 70% 3-year CAGR revenue growth that also has 85% gross margins. The stock has fallen since its IPO in the spring of 2019, while it’s peers who also IPO’d in 2019 have soared (see Page 2). Pagerduty sits in the middle of all business software applications, taking in real time data from all these different applications (See paragraph 3). This real-time data is filtered through Pagerduty’s proprietary AI function, identifying future software problems. It then takes it one-step further by identifying specific personnel, or a team, who is responsible to resolve the digital breakdown while giving it context. This all occurs before the problem actually happens. Not only do employees experience less software headaches, the customer will have a more streamlined digital experience. Pagerduty helps reduce digital issues and outages for both customers and employees software. Pagerduty is a double-edged sword that eliminates problems that negatively effect businesses both internally and externally. In a rapidly growing virtual world, where customers expect a flawless experience and companies are shifting to remote work, Pagerduty sits in the middle of this digital transformation. Pagerduty provides businesses the jump on future software problems that employees and customers will face. This is the only software that takes in real-time data, from multiple software programs, that analyzes and identifies future problems, alerting the correct team responsible for resolving these issues. Ensuring a seamless digital experience every time. Pagerduty integrates with software giants such as AWS, Servicenow, Zendesk, Okta, Zoom, Slack, Microsoft Teams, Cloudfare and Datadog to name a few. Many of these partners are also customers including Okta, Datadog, Zoom and Cloudfare. The company has a robust customer base, growing from 34% of the Fortune 100 when they became public, to 60% as of their most recent earnings. Brick by Brick Capital believes it is clear that Pagerduty has a superior product as highlighted by the robust costumer base, revenue growth and an outstanding 95% renewal rate. The Peer Group A major proponent of our bullish thesis on Pagerduty stems from its discounted value when compared to its peers. Both Zscaler (ZS) and Cloudflare (NET), SaaS companies, have seen significant stock appreciation since they became public in 2019 rising 160% and 315% respectively, while Pagerduty has fallen 10% since its IPO. There is no fundamental reasoning for this discrepancy between the stock appreciation of its peers and the deprecation of its own. Pagerduty has shown robust growth, margins, liquidity and a focus on spending towards research and development. These factors along with the macro-tailwinds of businesses expanding their digital footprints and their need to synthesis all the data, puts Pagerduty in a great spot to benefit in the long run. Brick by Brick Capital strongly believes that the company will get rerated over the coming months to something that is more comparable to its peers P/S ratio. The Technical Analysis At Brick by Brick Capital, our edge is discovering unique companies that have great fundamentals, macro-economic tailwinds with a large economic moat. We then use astute technical analysis to identify optimal entry points to minimize risk and maximize alpha. Pagerduty’s current price is at a significant level. It is breaking above both the short-term resistance line ($32.70 since 6/19/20) and its long-term resistance trend line (since 6/17/19). We believe now presents an optimal time to enter into the name, before a subsequent break out from these resistance levels. However, it is critical to point out that it has a near term immediate downside of $26. If earnings on 12/4/20 are not well received by the street, a retest of the post earnings low of $23 is in store. With this in mind, an opening position in Pagerduty should be no more than 50% of a full position. This allows an investor to average down on a pullback. Conclusion Pagerduty presents an exceptional risk-reward scenario for investors. It is a high growth, high margin business that has macro-economic tailwinds at its sails. Usually in these scenarios it requires an investor to pay sky-high valuations, however because of the lack of interest that the company has received this is not the case. Pagerduty is a true growth-value hybrid play in a market that is littered with overvalued tech companies.
NYSE:PDLong
by RobertTheTrader
4
Trade Update: Move stop to breakevenIngenuity Trading Model- Swing Trading Algorithm used in all markets- Stocks, Forex, Futures, and Crypto The model is a Geometric Markov Model : In probability theory, a Markov model is a stochastic model used to predict randomly changing systems. Markov Models are used in all aspects of life from Google search to daily weather forecast. The randomly changing systems we focus on are the equity, futures, and forex markets. The geometric element of the model is the fractal wave structure you can find on any chart you look at across any market and across all time dimensions. Our model focuses on the current wave formation (current state)- geometric price formation along with its volume and volatility over a given time period and using that information to predict the future state- future price movement. For more information visit our website
NASDAQ:CRWD
by IngenuityTrading
CRWD impending breakoutAfter just having a failed retest at the top resistance line of the channel (which could have been a support line), CRWD is now hitting the roof of the channel again. The RSI is being tightly wedged between two trendlines; volatility is also contracting. From what I can tell there is high chance of breakout on this stock. If I wanted a short term trade with a good chance of carrying out, I would wait for a breakout. This will be signaled by a big jump in volume on an up day. If the price hits the open of September 1st (above the 132 level) I would consider taking a short term position and taking profits if the price hits the close of September 2nd (142.50 level). We could also see a failed retest so I would set a stop loss around the current price, the 130 level.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by Isaiahgr3
2
CRWD continued supportAfter recently breaking out, CRWD cooled off a little and is currently testing last weeks high. Look for support around the 126 range. Further confirming the uptrend is a bullish head and shoulders. A break downwards could put CRWD back in the previous channel. If CRWD continues to continue follow the short term uptrend I would consider taking a medium term position at the 132 mark. I would set a stop loss at around 124. Look for an upper target of at least 140.
NASDAQ:CRWDLong
by Isaiahgr3
THE WEEK AHEAD: M, CLDR, CRWD EARNINGS; GDXJ/GDX, SLV, QQQTHE WEEK AHEAD: EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENT VOLATILITY CONTRACTION PLAYS: M (41/103/September 18.7%): Announces Wednesday before market open. Potential Plays: September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 1.30 as of Friday close, .33 at 25% max. September 18th 5/7/7/9 iron fly, paying 1.07 as of Friday close, .27 at 25% max. Look to take profit at 25% max. CLDR (68/116/September 20.1%): Announces Wednesday after market close. Potential Plays: September 18th 13 short straddle, paying 2.60 as of Friday close, .65 at 25% max. September 18th 9/13/13/17 iron fly, paying 2.13 as of Friday close, .53 at 25% max. Look to take profit at 25% max. CRWD (32/74/September 15.0%): Announces Wednesday after market close. Potential Plays: September 18th 101/145 short strangle, paying 4.03 as of Friday close, 2.01 at 50% max. September 18th 100/105/140/145. Markets are showing wide in the off hours, but look to put on a setup that pays at least one-third the width of the wings in credit. Comments: Not a ton is shaking next week for options liquid underlyings, but here are what appear to me to be the best candidates for volatility contraction plays. Naturally, I'm just preliminarily pricing these out to see whether they're potentially worthwhile, and actual strikes are likely to change somewhat running into earnings as price moves. EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS SCREENED FOR >35% 30-DAY IMPLIED/OCTOBER AT-THE-MONEY SHORT STRADDLE PAYING >10% OF STOCK PRICE: SLV (45/56/15.2%) XLE (24/39/11.2%) GDX (22/47/13.3%) GDXJ (21/58/15.7%) EWZ (17/44/12.3%) XOP (13/50/14.1%) GDXJ is paying the most as a function of stock price (15.7%), followed by SLV (15.2%), XOP (14.1%), and GDX (13.3%). WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING: The GDXJ October 16th 15/75 short strangle: 2.15, 3.6% as a function of stock price, The SLV October 16th 22/32 short strangle: .97, 3.6% as a function of stock price. The XOP October 16th 45/63 short strangle: 1.84, 3.5% as a function of stock price. The GDX October 16th 38/47 short strangle: .84, 2.0% as a function of stock price. Comments: I've already got a miners play on, so am likely to avoid getting into another closely correlated underlying here. BROAD MARKET: QQQ (29/32/8.8%) IWM (22/28/7.6%) EFA (17/20/5.6%) SPY (12/22/5.3%) WHAT THE SHORT STRANGLES NEAREST 16 DELTA ARE PAYING: The QQQ October 16th 257/320 short strangle is paying 6.51, 2.2% as a function of stock price. The IWM October 16th 140/170 short strangle, 2.93, 1.9%. The EFA October 16th 60/69 short strangle, .93, 1.4%. The SPY October 16th 317/391 short strangle, 4.95, 1.4%. Comments: In the IRA, I've been mechanically selling 45 days 'til expiry puts at the two times expected move strike (basically, the 16 delta) and will pretty much continue to do so until 30-day drops below 20%. There's always hesitancy to continue to do this at successive all-time-highs, and, yes, it is likely I will be assigned shares at some point in a >2 times expected move sell-off, after which I'll proceed to cover. That being said, I've got an inordinate amount of undeployed buying power after all the acquisitional short put ladders I put on in the sell-off have come off; I'd rather take some risk here to earn "something," all while keeping a reasonable amount of dry powder free to take advantage if we get another one of those bodice rippers we had in mid-March. This week, I'll follow the implied volatility, and as of Friday close, that was in the QQQ's. DIVIDEND EARNERS: XLU (21/23/7.1%) EWA (20/24/7.0%) TLT (18/19/4.8%) EFA (17/20/5.6%) EWZ (17/44/12.3%) IYR (17/24/6.5%) HYG (17/14/2.8%) SPY (16/22/5.3%) EMB (11/11/2.7%) The Brazilian exchange-traded fund leads the pack for the umpteenth week in a row, with XLU and EWA in distant second and third places. I'm fine with continuing to hit EWZ via acquisitional short put over and over again if that's where the implied volatility leads, but, yes, it's kind of getting old. For what it's worth: The 2 times expected move EWZ October 16th 28 short put is paying .36 per contract as of Friday close (1.2% as a function of stock price). Key: The first number in parentheses is the implied volatility rank or percentile (i.e., where implied volatility is relative to where it's been over the past 52 weeks); the second, 30-day implied volatility; and the third, the percentage of stock price that the specified monthly expiry at-the-money short straddle is paying.
C
by NaughtyPines