Bitcoin update. So my first area I amended and I was stopped out but got back in. Price didn’t close out of the area. Then got in and rode the wave back to 77k. Holding til I see any reversal..
Crypotcurrency
BTCUSDTThe price is placed in a trading range of 73,000 and 57,000.
we can buy on 57000$
sell on 72000$
ORDIUSDT The elliot wave count here is very clear. Lets see how I develops. The low might be in or a few more taps near the low to make the bottom and then moon.
Will BTC drop to 38K soon?A day or 2 ago I posted an idea of BTC going back down to 38K, We retested resistance again since then and are slowly making our way to the range low and I think it will break this time towards 38K.
The ETF approval is nearing in the first week of the new year probably. This could trigger a selloff like most major news events in crypto
So far everything is going to my plan and I plan on buying more in this dip if it happens
Bitcoin Supercycle theory - bottom inBull theory – Bottom is already in for Bitcoin INDEX:BTCUSD
There are severeal technical indicators and measurements that suggest it could be.
Firstly, the 50-week MA already crossed the 100-week MA. Each time this occured, the bottom was already in, both times as the weekly RSI dipped into oversold conditions. The price behavior has also been similar to the 2014 bear market for months with a drawdown of -53% below the 50-100WMA. (-But there is more time for that special fractal in another post.)
Secondly, this current level happens to be a 0.786 Fibonacci Retracement of our entire run up from Covid-19 to the November top in addition as it is the support oft he previous all time high(2017). Furthermore sitting right now on the weekly 300MA.
The Fear and Greed Index has only registered prolonged periods in Extreme Fear(below 10) as we have witnessed at the 2018 capitulation bottom and the 2020 Covid-19 selloff.
Therefore the capitulation happened in June, with Luna (+UST), the depegging of USDT, 3AC, blockfi, Celsius… which are all max fear events. But everyone is now expecting 13-15k thinking we are in the middle of a bear market rally. While the GBTC Grayscale Bitcoin Trust value sitting already at chart comparable 11k.
From technical analysis we couldn’t have bottomed more.
Even on chain indicators signal the bottom is near. NUPL, RHODL Ratio, Puell Multipli, Entity adjusted Dormancy-Flow, MVRV-Z Score, 2Year MA Multiplier, CBBI-Bull Run Index. We have already seen arguably the most extreme network capitulation in Bitcoin‘s history, with now also a Hash Ribbons blue ball on the daily timeframe.
Bitcoin is trading at a fair value. I am still hoping for an expanding flat 3-3-5 elliot wave correction, a double three WXY pattern, or even a simple overshooting B of an ABC.
But if that 17,6k gets structural taken out we are not talking about recession but deflationary depression and just the start of a longer bear market.
Fortunately the global narrative is shifting. People are now saying we are going into a deep recession. CNBC‘s Cramer saying to avoid all speculative investments like crypto, while the worst is priced in already. It starts to look like the main worry is becoming recession with deflation and not inflation now. That idea gets strengthened by US-CPI showing a second month of decline. Based on the 5-year break-even inflation rate, a leading indicator, it can already be said with certainty that we have seen the short-term peak in inflation. And that inflation is expected to recover further through 2023. Keep in mind every time inflation tops - Stock market rallies! Once the consumer price index print comes in significantly lower (September~7,9% but October ~7%) the stage will be set for a Powell flip flop. FED pivots systematically lead to strong rallies. So November FOMC potentially for a midterm or year-end Christmas rally. This means that the Fed will step back on better CPI-data and inflation will eventually start running again in 2023.
Nobody does see a fruitful future for investments right now. To trick the retail there is no need for a positive narrative so everyone keeps being bearish. Only technical analysis matters.
Afterwards we will see what the news catalyst was.
Btc may range more than equities first, then rotation into more risk happens later.
Hence Bitcoin Dominance will rise and Altcoins will pump after Bitcoin. But Btc is not yet in a multi-year bear market within its 4 year cycle because BTC.D would be at that point much higher while we are seeing new 4 year lows. Something is different.
As a trader you have to adapt the possibilities. Invalidation of that bull scenario if we set a new low in Bitcoin. Then there will be much bigger problems in the market. So all eyes on the DXY and the behavior oft he FED, because Btc is at this time just the risk-taking follower of Nasdaq and SPX.
Special greetings to Blockchain Backer, following him for almost a year.
XLK QQQ Down -10% Since the last BIG Short idea | Whats NEXT?AMEX:XLK Weekly structure changed, and the price is in a huge volume gap. Weekly head and shoulder breakdown and pops gonna get sold back down IMO.
First target hit and is now aggressively approaching the big target, which is the massive volume node around 150 🎯
$BTC long from hereBitcoin is resurging after the wall street turns red.
It has done a great job in acting as a safe heaven asset even leaving the gold behind.
BTC activity is picking up and if SPX goes below 4,000 level, we could see bitcoin back up above the 30k level.
Possible BTC playout...Hello fellow traders, today i would like to share my idea on the next possible move of BTC . Since I'm new to trading and not qualified to give any sort of financial advice take this as a general outlook of the current situation and my personal thought. I'm not a native english speaker so excuse me if i make any sort of grammatical errors.
For starters i would say that on 21st of November 2022 we successfully completed wave 5 of the BTC's downtrend and now should follow an ABC corrective move.
As you can see from the chart above wave A (yellow line path) should be already in place. This idea should be confirmed and backed up by the fact that wave A is composed of 5 other minor waves count which in my opinion wave 5 ended on 21st of Feb 2023 when we touched the 25k level resistance. Now we should see a minor ABC correction that could bring us to the lower levels such as the Fib 0.618 that sits around 20.5k and this should be the wave B (yellow line path) of the major correction. If this level doesn't hold we most likely end up testing the 19k level where for sure will trigger some reaction from the bulls. Once the minor ABC correction is done we should see the last major wave C (yellow line) which could take us around the 30k level.
Generally speaking i'm quite bullish on mid/long term, but for the moment being i'm more bearish on short term mainly because of the traditional markets and inflation, i think we should wait for more positive data about the macroeconomics aspects to really change our insight.
Thank you for reading and please leave a comment if you have some suggestions or ideas. Have a good day!
Bitcoin can Escape from 🎪Descending Channels Festival🎪❗️❓Bitcoin is moving in a main descending channel in the 4-hour time frame, and as I expected, the descending Scallop pattern worked well.👇✅
But if you look a little more at the Bitcoin chart in the 1-hour time frame, you will notice that Bitcoin was able to create a smaller descending channel inside the main descending channel.
I expect Bitcoin to break out of the minor descending channel soon and reach the support line.
Bitcoin Analyze ( BTCUSDT ), 1-hour Time frame ⏰.
Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open).
Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post.
Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
something is cooking RAYno explanation needed take profits at pullback and at resistances and don't be greedy all profit is good profit
Bitcoin Prediction? Can we use the past to predict the future?
Hello everyone, today I will answer the question: Can we use the past to predict the future?
Like many questions in finance, it is difficult to give a yes or no answer.
On the one hand, yes we can say that in practice and historically we can predict, or at least get a good approximation of the future of an asset by looking at how it has performed in the past.
For example, we can use US returns to predict or anticipate global economic downturns.
However, no, we cannot predict the future with certainty based on the past because, in finance, many counter-examples show that just because it happened in the past does not mean it will happen again in the future.
The question we now ask ourselves is: Is it possible to predict the future bull run using the cycles plotted on the graph?
Many would have liked me to answer this question in the affirmative, but in practice I don't think it is possible to predict the next up-cycle with certainty with the above data. I don't think it is possible for several reasons:
First of all, $BTC and crypto-currencies are a very young market (less than 20 years old), so it is not rigorous with so little data to be assertive about the next bull run.
Secondly we have several counter examples that show that the bearmarket has no clock, so it can last 1 year, 5 years, 10 years ... We do not know and we can not do otherwise.
And last but not least the macroeconomic context. Today we can't say that the financial markets are at their best. We know that BTC is highly correlated to the S&P500 or more globally to the stock market. And given the various events that the world is going through at the moment, it is not necessarily the best time for investors to invest in highly risky products.
Conclusion: Yes, in finance we can use the past to predict the future, but this implies some rules that are not, at least for now, compatible with BTC. Bitcoin and all other crypto-currencies do not have the necessary hindsight and power to differentiate themselves from traditional markets. As a result, it is subject to the bear market like many other assets, and cannot escape it alone.
THIS IS NOT INVESTMENT ADVICE.
Written by @maxencechachuat on 12 January 2023.
The Housing Market is Crashing!Traders,
In this update, I am going to focus mostly on the U.S. Housing Market decline and what it means for the Feds reactionary policies, the U.S. stock markets, crypto, and the future of our U.S. economy.
Stew
BTC/Bitcoin has an obvious target of 10-12k in the next 60 daysThis is one of a million reasons to why i think we havent bottom yet.
Please dont cry in the comments, this is simply just an idea i wanna share with everyone NFA,DYOR
Bitcoin/BTC/Crypto target is 10-12k and it worst case 7k and best case 14k
BTCUSDT 17-23NOVExpect an upside correction to 17K first. A relief rally after severe drop is normal. Breakdown below 15K will be only after the visit of 17K. After 17K the price might go for another leg up to 18K. Nevertheless it will drop eventually.
Bearish sentiment of 14K in one-two days is highly unlikely. If it happens anyways, it will be triggered by some extremely bad news likely about Genesis, Binance, etc.
Bitcoin Price Update | Short Term Trade Disclaimer: NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE | Please Like and Follow if you agree.
As we can see we are inside a falling wedge pattern which is a bullish pattern and it's more likely break to the upside.
if this pattern play out we can enter to a long position at 18950 are because it's demand zone in 4HR timeframe. or you can wait to break the resistance then you can enter to a long position around 19067.
Good Luck!
avax local |$19a ton of fairly good setups out there. continue looking for the high beta plays.
from a macro perspective, if we get this zone as the swing low, avax should run much higher..
but from a local perspective, we think $19 is a conservative 10% target where we'll likely start to see some turbulence.
BTCBTC doing zigzag as correction of wave 1 which will form the larger wave 5 of the bearish down trend
ETCHello guys this is my trading idea about ETC thank you
IF you like my work please like and follow thanks
TURTLE TRADER 🐢
XRP: Still bearish!XRP
Intraday - We look to Sell at 0.3459 (stop at 0.3521)
Daily signals are bearish. Our short term bias remains negative. The trend of higher highs is located at 0.3460. We look for a temporary move higher.
Our profit targets will be 0.3301 and 0.3261
Resistance: 0.3400 / 0.3450 / 0.3500
Support: 0.3300 / 0.3240 / 0.3200
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BTCUSD Aug W.4: Long-term trend alert!Hi friends, I hope the week is unfolding for y'all as planned ;)
Today, we've got another possible long-term trade signal. These trades signals are only derived from this timeframe (Weekly). The monthly doesn't fully support them, and that makes the trades highly risky. I feel like the price won't drop to the last target. I think it will reverse on the 3rd Weekly Key Lvl to form the monthly's double top accumulation phase that will either retest the Monthly Neckline 2, ascending trend line, together with the 50 and bearish crossed short-term moving averages to fully confirm the bearish signal or break the key levels to trigger a bullish long-term trend signal. This is what I'm talking about:
Furthermore, as you can see on the chart, the price might continue to drop to the Monthly Support after bearish breaking and retesting the 2nd Monthly Key Lvl. That will half confirm the weekly's signals. Speaking about the weekly, let us take a look at how the bulls and bears might behave in triggering our trades and disconfirming them before or during the trade.
Bulls: -If the price bullish breaks and retests the Mini Weekly Neckline and 8 moving average, that will be our first dis-confirmation. It will likely lead the price to rally for the 2nd Weekly Key Lvl and 21 moving average for our 2nd disconfirmation. We will exploit that trend because it will be the monthly's counter-trend signal that will be anticipating the Monthly Neckline 2, ascending trend line, together with the 50 and bearish crossed short-term moving averages that expect retests.
Bears: -If the price bullish spikes or retests the Mini Weekly Neckline and the 8 moving average with a bearish candle formation or close (1st trade signal) that leads the price to bearish break and retest the 1st Monthly Key Lvl either on the current or lower time frame (2nd trade signal), that will fully confirm our trades and I call or grade these type of trades a "H&S C-E.1 signal".
That's it for today. I hope you found value in this trade idea. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section or in private, I'd love to know your thoughts!
Stay Blessed,
Sphatrades.
Bitcoin analysis in 1 hour time frame according to FibonacciIf we are going to have a technical analysis according to the Fibonacci indicator, I can say that we encountered the yellow Fibo line and showed a good reaction to it, and it seems that we are going to move down and the targets It is determined that we should touch 23000 and 22500 and then decide on the next move. But as I mentioned in the previous post, the market has not moved according to logic in the last few days and we are in an emotional market, so be careful.
be profitable
