ATH/USDTENTRY
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Gold Short to $2675Looks overpriced. CMC Gap at $2675, there is high chance to go to $2000 if filling the gap won't be enough to bounce back.
I expect to close my Short between $2675 and $2300. Of course anything might change.
In my opinion we can get a Black Swan event this or next week. Most of the stocks, indices, crypto looks very dumpy short term.
ALGOUSDT Facing a Major Reversal? Bears Ready to Take Over!Yello, Paradisers! Is ALGOUSDT about to take a sharp dive? The price is currently hovering around a key supply zone, struggling to push higher. With buyers failing to break through, the risk of a strong bearish rejection is increasing, signaling a potential short opportunity.
💎The market structure has shown a clear Change of Character (CHoCH), suggesting a shift from an uptrend to a potential downtrend. Price remains below the 50 EMA, reinforcing the bearish momentum. If sellers step in with force, the downside move could accelerate quickly.
💎Key downside targets are forming around 0.2188 and 0.1663, where the next major support zones lie. If the bearish scenario plays out, these levels could be reached sooner than expected. Any failure to reclaim higher levels will only strengthen the case for further declines.
This is where patience and discipline pay off. Market traps are everywhere, and only those who stay focused and trade smart will come out on top. Be ready for the move, Paradisers!
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success🌴
ETCUSDT: Breakdown or Bounce? A Critical Move Is Coming!Yello, Paradisers! Is ETCUSDT about to collapse further, or are the bulls ready to fight back? Let’s break it down!
💎#ETCUSDT remains in a strong downtrend, continuously rejecting the descending resistance and struggling to hold above key levels. Recently, the price tested the imbalance zone at $18.995 but got smacked down, a clear sign that sellers are still in control.
💎Adding further bearish confirmation, the 50 EMA has crossed below the 200 EMA, reinforcing the downside momentum. This classic death cross signals that sellers have the upper hand, increasing the probability of further declines.
💎If ETC retests the $18.995 supply zone and faces rejection again, expect another leg down toward $17.590 and potentially the major support at $16.576. A failure to find strong buying interest at these levels would confirm further downside continuation.
💎However, if ETC manages to break and hold above $18.995, it could signal strength. In this case, price may push toward $21.288, but it must first clear $19.288 with strong volume to invalidate the bearish setup. A confirmed breakout would shift momentum bullish, opening the door for a potential rally toward $22 and beyond.
Stay patient, Paradisers! The market always rewards discipline. If we see confirmation, we take action. If not, we wait. Trade smart, not fast! 🎖
MyCryptoParadise
iFeel the success 🌴
Hidden Forces: Decoding Buyer & Seller Activity on ChartsTotal Volume vs. Volume Delta: The total volume on the chart includes both buys and sells, making it less useful for analysis. Volume Delta, however, shows whether buyers or sellers dominated within a candle.
A green Delta candle means more aggressive retail buying; a red one means more retail selling. This helps analyze market sentiment beyond price movement.
Price & Delta Relationships:
1. Price and Delta move together → Organic movement, likely driven by retail.
2. Delta moves, but price doesn’t → Retail is heavily biased in one direction, absorbing limit orders. Possible smart money trap.
3. Price moves, but Delta doesn’t → Retail didn’t participate in the move. Lack of belief or failed market-making attempt.
4. Price moves against Delta → Strong indication of market manipulation. Large players using aggressive strategies against retail.
Market Manipulation & Smart Money:
* Whales leverage retail psychology and order flow to position themselves.
* Retail often gets caught in fake moves, unknowingly providing liquidity to big players.
Final Thought: By analyzing Delta and price movement together, we can spot hidden large buyers and sellers and understand market dynamics beyond surface-level price action.
Xrp - Destroying All Hopes For Bears!Xrp ( CRYPTO:XRPUSD ) is heading for new all time highs:
Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻
Literally all cryptocurrencies are currently creating pump and dump like price action with swings of two digits within a couple of minutes. But if we look at the higher timeframe - specifically also on Xrp - markets are still 100% bullish and heading for new all time highs.
Levels to watch: $2.0, $5.0
Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Secure profits of LONGBTCUSD Chart Analysis (Daily Timeframe)
1. Securing the Last LONG Position
The last LONG position should be secured in profit because:
Price failed to sustain higher levels and is now rejecting resistance.
If the price drops further, it could trigger a deeper correction.
The risk-to-reward ratio shifts once key support levels start failing, making holding a long position less favorable.
Locking in profits prevents giving back gains if price reverses.
2. Why This Is the MAX Risk Point for a New Short
🚨 A new SHORT signal has NOT yet been given, but if it prints, we must wait for the daily close to confirm it.
Key reasons why this is the max risk point:
✅ Price is still within a key decision zone (near support and trendline levels).
✅ If price bounces and holds above current levels, shorts would be trapped.
✅ Shorting prematurely without a confirmed close could result in a fakeout.
✅ Stochastic Indicator is still crossing up, meaning a bounce could occur before confirmation.
3. Short Confirmation & Timing Considerations
📌 If a SHORT signal appears, DO NOT enter immediately. Instead:
Wait for the daily close → Confirms that price sustains bearish momentum.
Watch for key breakdown levels → If price stays below support zones at ~80,000 - 86,000, bearish continuation is likely.
Check volume confirmation → A high-volume breakdown strengthens the short thesis.
Conclusion
⚠️ Right now, we are at a decision point:
If the price holds above current support, another move up is possible.
If a SHORT signal is printed, we still wait for the daily close to confirm.
Max risk for a new short is NOW, because shorting too early without confirmation could lead to a reversal.
💡 Patience is key—wait for the right signal before entering! 🚀
Current Price Context
BTCUSD is trading at ~$84,380, showing a -2.81% daily decline.
Price recently failed to break above key resistance (~86,000–88,000 zone).
Volume is slightly increasing on the downside, indicating some seller momentum.
The Stochastic RSI is still crossing up, meaning there is a chance for a bounce, but it is approaching a critical zone.
Most Probable Next Scenario (Scale of 1-10)
🔴 Bearish Breakdown: 7.5/10
🟢 Bullish Bounce: 2.5/10
**Bearish Breakdown (Most Likely) – 7.5/10
If price closes below ~$84,000, this will confirm a breakdown of key intraday support.
Next major support zones:
$80,000 (psychological and technical support)
$73,000 – $72,000 (strong demand & historical support)
$65,400 (worst-case bearish scenario in the near term)
Key Reasons for Bearish Bias:
✅ Failure to hold higher levels → Bears are in control.
✅ Trendline resistance rejection → Price rejected a major downtrend.
✅ Bearish order flow on volume → Sellers are stepping in.
✅ No new long confirmations → Momentum fading.
✅ Potential lower high structure forming → Could lead to further downside.
📌 If the daily closes red and under support (~84,000), a move towards 80,000 is highly probable.
**Bullish Bounce (Less Likely) – 2.5/10
If BTCUSD manages to reclaim ~$86,000 and sustain, bulls could attempt another push.
Resistance levels to watch:
$86,000 → Short-term reclaim level.
$88,000 - $92,000 → Key breakout zone.
$99,800 - $107,000 → Longer-term bullish targets.
What Would Change the Bias to Bullish?
❌ Price MUST reclaim $86,000+ with high volume.
❌ A strong daily close above $88,000 would confirm bullish continuation.
❌ Short squeeze event leading to a big move up.
📌 Until these conditions are met, the bullish scenario remains unlikely.
Final Thoughts
Bearish breakdown is more likely (7.5/10 probability).
If BTC closes today under $84,000, expect a move to $80,000-$73,000.
A bullish reversal is unlikely unless BTC reclaims $86,000+ convincingly.
No new SHORT signal has printed yet, but if it does, wait for the daily close to confirm.
📢 Trading Plan:
1️⃣ If price breaks down below $84,000 and closes red, SHORT confirmations are strong.
2️⃣ If BTCUSD holds $84,000 and reclaims $86,000, potential bounce.
3️⃣ Wait for daily close confirmation before making high-risk trades.
🚀 Most probable next move: More downside towards $80,000 unless bulls reclaim key resistance.
Key Factors That Could Trigger a Drop Below $70K
🔴 1. Major Support Breakdown ($80K → $72K → FWB:65K )
If $80,000 fails, BTC is likely to retest $72K– FWB:73K , a historically strong support level.
If $72K fails, the next major demand zone is $65,400.
Below $65,000, panic could set in, leading to a cascade of liquidations.
📉 Critical Breakdown Levels Below $70K:
$72,000–$73,000 (historical demand, strong support)
$65,400 (deep correction support)
$55,000–$58,000 (absolute worst-case scenario in a full-blown market panic)
🔴 2. Leverage Wipeout & Liquidation Cascade
BTC is heavily leveraged. A sharp drop below $80K–$72K could trigger mass liquidations, accelerating the decline.
Whales may intentionally push price below key liquidation levels to wipe out overleveraged longs before rebuying lower.
🔴 3. Macro & Sentiment Shifts
If stocks crash, inflation fears rise, or interest rates stay high, BTC could suffer from risk-off sentiment.
If major institutions or miners start selling, BTC could dip below $70K temporarily before stabilizing.
Probability of a Drop Below $70K?
Short-term (1-2 weeks): 3.5/10 (Unlikely but possible if BTC fails $72K).
Medium-term (1-2 months): 5.5/10 (More likely if macro conditions worsen).
Black Swan Event: 8/10 (If panic liquidations hit, BTC could momentarily dip to FWB:65K or even $58K).
Bottom Line:
⚠️ BTC remains at risk for deeper corrections.
✅ Below $80K, expect increased volatility & potential $72K retest.
✅ If BTC loses $72K, sub-$70K becomes a real possibility.
✅ Only a major liquidation cascade would push BTC towards FWB:65K –$58K.
🚨 If price action weakens, be prepared for rapid downside acceleration!
ETH - On which side will it break-out?Today, the FED will decide on the interest rate in the USA. It is almost certain (99% probability) that the rate will remain unchanged. The most important aspect to focus on in this meeting’s minutes is the FED Balance Sheet. Will they stop tightening the balance sheet this month, or will they wait until mid-year as stated in January?
Leading up to the FOMC meeting, ETH is squeezing within its 4-hour pattern, forming equal highs and higher lows. This suggests a potential breakout to the upside.
I have outlined two possible scenarios:
1. ETH breaks through the resistance zone with strong volume, then successfully retests it as support.
2. ETH fails to break the resistance zone and instead breaks below the rising trendline.
Scenario 1:
Many stop-loss orders are accumulating just above the equal highs. If ETH manages to break out of the resistance zone with high volume and fill the gap, there is a chance it will flip this resistance into support. To confirm this, we need multiple candle closes above the resistance zone.
However, there is also a possibility that the FOMC meeting could trigger a price pump, only to drop immediately afterward, taking out stop-losses along the way.
Scenario 2:
In this case, ETH breaks below its rising trendline. For this to be a valid breakdown, it must be accompanied by high volume and a new lower low. If ETH breaks the trendline without forming a new lower low, it could be a fake-out. Therefore, we need confirmation: a lower low followed by a trendline retest.
Interesting Observations:
Stochastic RSI on the Daily Timeframe is rising rapidly into the overbought zone, while ETH remains in consolidation. Typically, we want the momentum of the Stochastic RSI to increase alongside price action. However, that is not happening here.
If the Stochastic RSI enters the overbought area and then crosses downward, it could put selling pressure on ETH, potentially leading to new lows in this downtrend.
Conclusion:
My base case is that ETH will sweep liquidity/stop-losses during the FOMC meeting with an initial upside move, followed by a sustainable correction downward in the coming days or weeks, accompanied by a decrease in the Stochastic RSI.
We’ll have to wait and see how the FOMC meeting unfolds.
Thanks for your support!
Drop a like and leave a comment to have a conversation about this topic. Make sure to follow me so you don’t miss out on the next analysis.
BITCOIN approaching the critical 1day MA50 test.Bitcoin / BTCUSD has found the support it desperately needed on the 1week MA50 and rebounded.
Now it faces the most important Resistance of its Cycle, the 1day MA50.
Every time this broke in the last 2 years, the market started a strong rally.
Buy and target 140000, which would be just under the Pi Cycle Top.
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ALTSEASON Party like 2021 is about to start.This is the unique ratio of the crypto total market cap excluding the top 10 against Bitcoin.
The market is consolidating for 7 straight weeks after rebounding on the top of the former Triangle of the previous Cycle.
Basically it this bearish leg is almost identical to October-December 2020. This kickstarted the Altseason of 2021.
We expect a similar altcoin rally to start as in 2021.
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LINKUSD Channel Up bottomed. Get ready for $44.LINK is trading inside a 2 year Channel Up.
The price is under the 1week MA50, which is about to form a Bearish Cross which the 1day MA50. Last time that happened, the bottom came 10 days later.
If the waves are symmetric inside this Channel Up, then we're already at or very close to the bottom, given also that the 1day RSI got oversold and this has been an instant buy signal previously.
Buy and target $44.00 (1.382 Fib extension and +300% rise).
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BTCUSD: Staying bullish with this breakthrough analysis.Bitcoin remains marginally neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.889, MACD = -2304.900, ADX = 28.298) as it erased yesterday's Fed gains. Nevertheless, this doesn't make us lose sight of the bigger picture. On this 1M chart, we have selected all Decembers, as they hold critical importance for BTC Cycles. Both bottoms and tops tend to be priced around them and in between two consolidation phases take place. Don't let the short term volatility cloud your long term perspective. This Cycle hasn't topped yet. Stay bullish.
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ETHUSD: Different asser, same pattern, same ending.Ethereum remains bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 40.440, MACD = -154.200, ADX = 29.206) but sits at the bottom of its 1 year Megaphone. This is the same pattern that Bitcoin traded on last year and Gold during its most recent Bear Cycle. In all instances, when the price found support on the MA50 and broke over the Megaphone, it reached the 2.0 Fibonacci. According to this, it won't be surprising if we see ETH at 9,000 by the end of the year.
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A Litecoin Swing TradeMarkets have been understandably battered over the last weeks. Current conditions are why I've generally been cautious about trading, and not getting married to long positions. As I explained in my last Litecoin analysis, things are precarious. The good thing is, I got out of my trades with a little bit of profit and no losses. The bad thing is, entering long right now is a bit scary. We cannot predict economic conditions. Instead, we can use sentiment. Sentiment for altcoins is totally in the gutter right now. Based on this alone, a bounce makes sense.
On the weekly chart, Litecoin is (so far) holding the 50 and 100 moving averages, while it broke below the 200. To look bullish on bigger timeframes, price needs to at least stabilize here and begin slowly moving up to allow the MA structure to bullishly support price (a weekly golden cross would be a start).
This play is simple - buying at support here between $86-94 and selling at resistance, near $106-107 (conservatively). If price makes it back up there, I will observe conditions to determine whether an additional leg up seems likely. If price is rejected heavily up there, it could point to another leg down. I'm also watching whether Bitcoin can break back above its 50 and 100 day moving averages. Litecoin is unlikely to have any explosive ATH moves if Bitcoin cannot at least get back above $90K and stay there for a while, I think.
On the downside, taking out the $80 level would set up price to fall back towards $50-66, and it may take a long while to recover. I may stop myself out if that happens and aim to rebuy near $66.
Litecoin has experienced steady (though not explosive) growth. This seems somewhat attractive to me when it comes to crypto. While I wouldn't be surprised to see this entire market fade in the future and be forgotten as an investment, this one at least sees some steady user growth.
This post is to show that even though I remain largely bearish on crypto, I am open to trading opportunities that present themselves, even if they are narrow in scope and focus on one cryptocurrency.
This is not meant as financial advice, but for speculation and entertainment only!
Thanks for reading :)
-Victor Cobra
$DOGE - Bear Trap BuyReposting my analysis from 3/8 as it was delisted b/c I referenced a non-TV external account. Also, a disclaimer since I've quickly discovered that people like to chirp and demean ideas on TV:
This is an IDEA. I maintain bull and bear cases for every underlying I analyze. My opinion about an underlying can change exceedingly quickly based on price action and how price's evolution either confirms or violates TREND (I define trend scholastically, NOT inferentially). I also may have 1 directional opinion about a security's higher timeframe and an opposing directional stance about a lower TF. Markets are fractal. Any serious trader/analyst understands what I'm articulating. This business is NOT about predicting. It is about understanding participant psychology, order flow, statistical distribution, risk vs. reward, profit margin, and probabilities.
With that said, here's my post from 3/8:
This is a technical (supply/demand) setup and is not a fundamental endorsement for CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ownership. $DOGE/USD (and crypto more broadly) has declined markedly (~60%) from December '24 highs. Late last month, low-quality daily demand (0.2021-0.1853) produced a minor bounce. DOGE quickly found sellers in advance of the opposing 1D supply zone (0.2428-0.2615), though, and was rejected. DOGE/USD appears poised for further near-term downside, with the weekly RSI threatening the 40 level.
If DOGE/USD presses lower and trades < 0.1813, the next pocket of daily demand = 0.1700-0.1419. More significantly, DOGE has a well-formed weekly buy zone @ 0.1513-0.1280. DOGE/USD's intermediate-term uptrend is controlled by 0.0805 (low of the corrective segment 3/25/24 - 8/5/24). Trend-continuation buying is valid within the bounds of the corrective segment, which DOGE traded into in early Feb. Buys are supported by 78.6% and 88.6% Fibonacci retracement levels and, to a lesser degree, Anchored VWAP + 1W Bollinger Band lower bound (not pictured).
Given crypto's broader price action and bearish momentum, confirmation entries are recommended. Potential buyers, depending on risk tolerance, should reference intraday timeframes for trend reversal signals vs. "catching a falling knife". Should DOGE bottom, preliminary target (T1) would be in advance of weekly supply @ 0.2398-0.2874 (use LTFs to refine and ID smaller sell zones that could challenge a rally). Trading > 0.2874 sets the stage for higher prices, with T2 supply 0.3288-0.3648. If DOGE/crypto approach T2 prices with significant bullish momentum (reference RSI), we could see subsequent prints in excess of December's 0.4846 high.
As always, feedback's welcome. Godspeed!
JHart
Bitcoin ($BTC) - Hoping for a Short-Term RolloverBitcoin bounced from the daily demand (76874.75-74306.67) that was highlighted in my "Bitcoin Uptrend Continuation" post from 5 days ago (see related post below). However, the rubber will now meet the road as BITSTAMP:BTCUSD could break higher or continue lower from current price. The in-play 1D sell zone, which is admittedly doesn't have great structure, is 86267.86-92920.42. Ideally, short-term CRYPTOCAP:BTC momentum, per the RSI, would be weaker than it is, but momentum is still soft per the daily oscillator. I'm not looking to short BTC blindly, but rather am stalking it via LTFs and will execute a confirmation short if evidence of the near-term uptrend (established 3/10) violation/termination materializes. If the intermediate-term downtrend continues, T2 = sub-$70K.
Anyway, just an idea. For those looking for longer-term buying opportunities, a near-term selloff should be viewed as a positive. Futures open in ~5 hours and can always be used to hedge longs if we get a breakdown.
Thanks for reading. Thoughts/feedback appreciated!
Jon
@JHartCharts
Bearer of Bad News - Short $XRPI originally posted this idea several days ago, but it was flagged b/c I linked one of my social media accounts. Apologies for any typos - the format of my post got jacked up after copying/pasting. Crypto's going to break one way or another from current levels. Bitcoin has a wide supply zone (not super strong) 86267.86-92920.42, so watch how it reacts...
Strictly technical setup here. Near-term demand/buy zones were good for bounces across the crypto space. However, buying has been fairly tepid. Given the technical structure for many crypto underlyings, this is unsurprising (addressed in CRYPTOCAP:DOGE ( COINBASE:DOGEUSD ), CRYPTOCAP:BTC , CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL ideas). Barring a catalyst, it seems more likely that crypto (and risk assets generally) will trade lower before higher.
Unfortunately for bulls, BITSTAMP:XRPUSD has levels of daily supply near current price. Per the 1D chart, sell zone = 2.3265-3.4106, 2.5032-2.6487. Additional sellers are likely lurking between 2.6487 and 3.0153, though LTFs need to be analyzed for identification. If the RSI is printing < 60/65 if/when price reaches the abovementioned ranges, CRYPTOCAP:XRP could roll over and commence another bearish impulse wave. Use micro-timeframes to watch for signs of uptrend violation/termination + to confirm any short entries/long exits.
To bolster positional confidence, observe other cryptos, especially larger market caps. Correlative behavior can be a very helpful trading "odds enhancer". If other majors rally w/ significant volume/momentum, XRP will likely follow. Conversely, if BITSTAMP:BTCUSD , BITSTAMP:ETHUSD ( CRYPTOCAP:ETH ), etc. fizzle out, expect XRP to do the same.
If this idea materializes and shorts regain control, daily demand = 1.5414-1.2843, 1.1222-1.0033. Fib retracements reinforce the aforementioned buy zones. Because of the explosive nature of XRP's 2024 rally, the monthly/weekly charts have "tradeable voids" (expanded-range candlesticks). While traditional technicals tout large candles, they're a double-edged sword. Their elongated nature is often reflective of limited trading and gaps in order flow, which can have a vacuum-like effect if/when prices correct. It's great when you're on the right side of the trade creating the candles, but there's also not a lot of unfilled orders to stop price from moving rapidly in the opposite direction. So, if XRP sells off, don't be surprised if price moves quickly.
I'm a fan of confirmation entries vs. "catching a falling knife". Referencing RSI momentum + using micro-TFs to ID trend reversal signals can help prospective buyers reduce risk (and/or increase position size). When volatility strikes, preservation is paramount.
Thanks for reading! Feedback/engagement welcome.
Jon
ETH - AltSeason confirmed?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
🔹 As per my last ETH analysis (attached to the chart), we expected that if $2,000 was broken to the upside, altseason would begin! 🚀
Now, ETH has been trading within the rising channel (marked in orange).
📈 As long as the lower orange trendline holds, the bulls remain in control, creating room for altcoins to surge!
💭 Do you think Altseason is confirmed, or is this just a bull trap? 🤔
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich