Another case for 10K or lowerI keep trying to prove myself wrong as a good analyst should, but I can't seem to.
10K or lower just makes sense...
Cryptobearmarket
SELL Ethereum!! Eth H&S Pattern Confirmation. Bears in Control!This chart is pretty self-explanatory.
Head and shoulders pattern has completed and with current Macro-Economic conditions worsening and tightening, I guess this truly was one of those, "Buy the rumors, sell the news" events with the Ethereum Merge.
Not only this, but we are consistently trending down, making a series of lower highs and lower lows. The trend remains intact and very strong.
I thoroughly expect us to double bottom or even make a new low on Ethereum. The time frame for when this happens remains to be seen.
My take profit Targets on my short are $1000 - $880 for 75% of my position. I will hold this position into a new low if that occurs.
This will be my position on the markets until we print a new higher high and a breakout on Ethereum above $2,050 will prove this theory wrong.
BTC repecting FIB zones of 4k to 69k;why sub-12k may be max painHere I used the COINBASE weekly chart. In my last post I used a BTCUSDT chart because the S&R levels are much clearer. (Maybe because more people used USDT to convert to BTC & vice versa).
Here are more reasons why the sub-12k zone may be the maximum pain for BTC.
Since the ATH @69k, BTC started an ABC correction as wave IV & has recently failed to hold 20k. Much action of the B counter-wave are done inside the yellow consolidation box (44k to 36k) between the 0.383 to 0.50 FIB retracement levels as measured from 4k to 69k. The move from 36k to 28k (Fib 0.50 to 0.618) was very fast encountering no strong S&R levels. The next leg down was halted by FIB 0.786 near sub-17k & a relief rally followed back up to consolidate inside the 22k to 20k pivot zone. 22k is the weekly wma200 level while 20k is a very strong psychological support.
Probability of more downside:
I believe the C-wave is not yet completed yet especially so if the sub-17k will not hold. BTC is probably right now doing the small wave 4 relief rally & there will still be a wave 5 down. Even if BTC holds 17k/18k, there is a great chance the relief rally may still be rejected by the 28k to 29k zone which is both the FIB 0.618 & the weekly wma150 area. This will be the SECOND MAJOR COUNTER-TREND RALLY since crashing from 69k. Having turned down, this time the sub-17k may not hold & the final maximum pain zone will be the sub-12k to 13k zone at FIB 0.854. The bottom may come in late 4Q2022.
BULLISH CASE: if BTC breaks back above the the 0.618 FIB at the 28k to 29k zone, THEN there is greater chance the BOTTOM was already in at 17567. Wave IV is still an expanded wave but the whole break below 28k was just a BIG BEARTRAP. There just have to be a bullish catalyst for this scenario to happen, like a FED pivot, a much lower inflation rate due to successful demand destruction or any type of good news about the invasion.
Not trading advice
Cycle Bottom Indicator [CBI] - Log Chart & Historic Bottom AnalyThis post looks at the following items to assess BTC possible upcoming cycle accumulation ranges, next cycle bottom and historic lowest price possible:
* Cycle Bottom Indicator & CBI Extensions
* Log Chart key support and resistance levels
* 200W SMA (Simple Moving Average) Historic Cycle Bottom Support
* Historic Cycle Accumulation Zone
* 300W SMA Historic BLACK SWAN event under evaluation support
The premise considered in this post is BTC is currently in the Bear Market phase of a new cycle and is approaching a new cycle bottom and accumulation range.
CYCLE BOTTOM INDICATOR
As per prior posts. The extension dashed lines extrapolated out in this chart at this point of time estimate a cycle bottom may be put in around August 2022 (based on current moving average inputs).
GOLDEN BOX
As per discussions regarding the 150W and 200W SMA, the potential upcoming golden box represents the price and time we might spend in a cycle accumulation range (based on prior historic price behavior). Historically the 200W SMA has resembled a key line of defense for the bulls where buyers has stepped in during the darkest days in Crypto to defend price. The bouncing nature of price between the 150W and 200W SMA suggests this in the past this is a range 'Smart Money' has targeted for cycle accumulation when believed BTC has been sufficiently oversold and is undervalued. Prior Cycle Golden Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
GREEN BOX
The 300W SMA resembles the worst case under evaluation support SMA reached during an extreme 'Black Swan' event (unexpected event which causes wide spread panic selling in the market). The as drawn potential upcoming Green Box between the 200W SMA and the 300W SMA represent the time and price ranges we may experience in the drawn scenario (not historically we have not spent much time in the Green Box and the COVID event is the first time we have reached these levels of undervaluation to date). NOTE: Prior Cycle Green Box has been drawn for comparison reference.
LOG CHART
The above Worst Case Analysis is combined with some simple TA and Key Historic Support levels on the Log Chart. The worst case Cycle Bottom shown on the chart price levels assumes the current trend direction and uses measured moves which align with key long chart support / resistance levels and potentially the 300W SMA (Violet line).
#Hex vs #Doge. #Memes, #Metaverse plays & #NFT's are doomed. Inverse Head and Shoulders: The two targets represent a Unlogged & Logged projection from the Head to the neckline. Giving two vastly different results. To meet the 100:1 doge:hex ratio could signal which seems outrageous. But during a prolonged bear market. we can definitely witness a Doge at a Penny. And the premier store house of value reach a Dollar in the next 12-18 months.
QuickPost: Solana appears to have a descending triangleSolana appears to have slipped key support with the failure of this rising trendline of support with a descending triangle structure. Given the stage of the market I hope for some overperformance but the fib retracement levels are where the technical non-greedy places to take profit are.
Linked idea is catastrophe planning for a bear market.
#hex just doubled again. #crypto mainly downawesome.
maybe time to rest??
but dips are aggressively bought
and coins are exiting the market supply
🚀Bear, Bull, Or?Investors and traders are people with emotions, fears, and biases. To overcome the uncertainty of every aspect of daily life, they need things that give them a feeling of safety.
Assigning a specific "label" to events, objects, or other people's behavior helps everyone categorize what happens around us to fit our mind schemes.
When trading, often happens the same process. It has been weeks now that traders struggle to answer the question, are we in a bear market?
Why is that so important to assign a label to current market conditions when you need to look at the price?
Interestingly, in 2019, the price of Bitcoin increased by 200%, but no one recalls a Bull market in 2021, even if such performances in any other asset class may have been well labeled so. That's likely because crypto price moves have a different scale.
Fibonacci retracements are a valuable way to gauge the magnitude of a price move. Despite the 200% surge, Bitcoin only retraced 61% of the drowdown experienced during the Bear market. Applying the same logic to the current price action, Bitcoin has found support precisely around the same 61% level calculated from the bottom in September 2020.
Should the current support hold, the label "Bear market" will be archived quickly, again.
#litecoin #LTCBULL general chat 5.19.21 ( brief look at #Btc)LITEcoin is the right coin.
(no maxi... reliable and cost-effective digital store of value)
I try not to be emotional, but ya like old gf...
litecoin is always there :)
