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XLM and XRP - The Cousins Who Don't Get Along Over a year ago, I made a bottom call on Stellar, and also made a follow-up. The targets haven't been reached from that original analysis, but the bottom price range was accurate. I've recently talked about XRP and XLM. This post focuses on these two coins. Here we have two coins that have remained somewhat correlated over time, although XLM also performed much better than XRP for most of 2018. They move together at times, and certainly they dropped together recently. This makes sense, since they are historically tied (they have the same founder, who also owns a substantial amount of XRP). From a technical perspective, XLM is still in a bullish structure, and it simply retested the previous $0.10-0.11 resistance as support. It still has room in the uptrend channel to fall to the bottom, but currently it's looking like it might want to break towards the top of the channel, or out of the channel entirely. If it does, I think it can go on a pretty massive rally. Potential targets are shown in green. XRP, on the other hand, retraced its entire recent move up, and is barely holding on to the long term broken downtrend as support. I think there's a chance for it to reach $0.45 again soon, but it could easily just drop right back down again. I don't trust any moves from XRP in its current state. From a fundamental perspective, Stellar has already seen pretty substantial adoption - CBDC's (look at the Ukraine news from today), IBM, USDC, and the list goes on. Additionally, Stellar is seen as more friendly to regulation. Ripple has decided the combative route. Not only that, but Ripple has dug itself into a hole - by labeling the lawsuit as a challenge to ALL cryptocurrencies, they are deflecting the blame. For progress to be made in society, further division is not what we need. Brad's "us versus them" mentality doesn't do it for me. I mean, why even bring China into the conversation? The lawsuit isn't about attacking cryptocurrencies. It's about attacking a couple of men who boasted about price while profiting massively from an asset they received for free and then sold to retail investors - without designating the asset as a security. There's just too much drama and uncertainty for me to justify holding XRP. As I mentioned recently, I bought XRP with an average entry of $0.26 and then sold for LTC at $0.47.So far, my decision to drop XRP for LTC and keep XLM has been a good one. I'm just sharing the technicals and fundamentals behind that choice. I think when Jed left Ripple, he realized that he needed to develop a different spin on crypto - one of financial inclusion - rather than focusing on banks and profit. He probably realized he could still make plenty of money this way while also seeming more compliant and ethical. Ironically, banks might end up using the Stellar network to a much greater extent than XRP. I think XLM has a very good chance of continuing its uptrend, while I suspect XRP price to be somewhat confined to a range until there is more clarity. Yes, much of XRP's usage is outside the U.S. But I just don't like how Ripple presents itself. This is only my personal opinion, and should not be taken as financial advice! -Victor Cobra
BINANCE:XLMUSDLong
by VictorCobra
13
The Great NANO Breakout - Part 2NANO has taken 4 months since my original post to start making some new highs, and 7 months since the break of the long term downtrend. Not what I was hoping for originally, but there just wasn't enough interest in the crypto market at the time. Here is the original post from August: Since then, WeNano has exploded in popularity, and the fast, fee-less cryptocurrency is starting to shine. I never underestimate the power of community and pure belief. Look at organized religion. This human tendency is what has allowed NANO to survive and build price support for so long. Even though the last breakout failed, it continued to find support around $0.70, which is what I was looking for to remain bullish longer term. It's only now trying to break out of this range. If NANO can break this rising resistance (pink) I think it can fly to some levels not seen since 2018. The first stop would be in the $3-5 range. On the bearish side, I don't want to see it break back below $1.10 and sustain. I suppose there's also room to fall to the pink uptrend if the rest of the crypto market corrects hard soon. And if it breaks down from the rising wedge, that wouldn't be good at all. Generally, breaking up from a rising wedge formation is extremely bullish, as it proves the higher highs and higher lows were aggressive accumulation. A rising wedge breaking UP is even more bullish than an ascending triangle. Likewise, a falling wedge or falling channel breaking DOWN, just proves that sellers are far more aggressive than buyers. I do think NANO fulfills every promise of what Bitcoin was originally meant for. To me, Bitcoin is Marxist in principle but capitalist in execution. You're owning the means of production, but by design it thrives within the capitalist system. It's a self-defeating, but incredibly profitable asset. Certainly better than dollars and gold, but more dystopian than utopian (in my opinion). It's a bit better than our current monetary system, but not by much. When you look at NANO, it has a limited supply, but since it's pre-mined, there is no capitalist infrastructure around coin acquisition and creation. Instead, it's completely distributed. It's socialist in principle and relatively socialist in execution. Just look at the community and the WeNano app, and observe all the spots around the world where you can donate and collect free NANO. Of course, there will always be people with more financial resources who can own more NANO, but I think it's the simplest, easiest, fastest, and cheapest cryptocurrency with some adoption. XLM is the only coin on par with NANO's speed (of the ones I've used), and it requires a MEMO, along with an address. This added step increases the amount of time it takes to complete a Stellar transaction. With NANO, all you need is the address. I certainly see the argument for Bitcoin, and I won't really argue with Bitcoin Maximalists. There is certainly a point there. But people can have different views on how they think the future of money should be. Things aren't ALL rosy for NANO though. It's only now starting to look bullish against the USD, and it may just be late to the party if Bitcoin tops out soon. We'd need momentum to keep building within the entire cryptocurrency market. It's also looking pretty terrible against Bitcoin, though just barely back into the long term falling wedge. I won't consider a reversal against Bitcoin until it triples in value from here I also think with XLM doing well, we can see some more capital flow into NANO, which is simpler than Stellar, with a much smaller supply to boot. I don't underestimate greed here either. Anyway, this is only my opinion. My writing should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only! This is not financial advice. -Victor Cobra
NLong
by VictorCobra
18
Victor Cobra's Crypto Market Update 12.30.2020 Part 1Hey everyone! Time for a new video idea. Here, I talk about my own personal thoughts and opinions. I also discuss price analysis for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, XRP, XLM, and briefly BAT and LINK. There's more I want to talk about, so I will be making a part two! Stay tuned. This is not financial advice. This is purely my opinion and should be used for education/entertainment/speculation only! Thanks for watching. Happy New Year! -Victor Cobra
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by VictorCobra
9
Will Alts Play Catch-up? Or Is This Time Different?In my previous XRP analysis, I timed a trade right before the breakout of the long term downtrend: In my previous ETH analysis, I said it could hit $700. The parabola I drew broke, but it came close: The last time Bitcoin broke its all-time-high, altcoins began outperforming Bitcoin. In fact, many outperformed Bitcoin until the end of the bull market. However, it hasn't happened the same way this time, and altcoin holders are rightfully disappointed. Maybe this is why we're seeing some upside in Bitcoin Dominance at the moment. I think this is largely due to the demand for liquidity. Bitcoin is just another cash-cow for institutions. As the money printer keeps churning, the flight from the USD continues. Neoliberalism at its finest. The market will sort itself out, right? Anyway, I entered a couple of trades today, on Ethereum and XRP. I think this is the last chance for alts to begin outperforming before we see several weeks (or more) of consolidation for the crypto market. On the left, you can see that XRP has held above the broken downtrend channel. In a bear market, I would expect it to break down back into the channel, so my stop loss is below today's low (within the channel). ETH: Entry: $613.50 Targets: $849, 1100 (potentially the top of the current uptrend channel) Stop loss: $575 XRP (smaller position): Entry: $0.5210 Targets: $0.80, 1.19, 1.90 Stop loss: $0.4895 On the bearish side of things, if ETH cannot hold $530, I think its run can be over, and it can target some much lower levels (if only briefly). Additionally, if XRP cannot hold above the downtrend channel, it can go into the $0.30 range again. This is not financial advice! This is for my personal record, and should be used for educational, speculative, and entertainment purposes only. -Victor Cobra
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by VictorCobra
3
BTCUSDTExpect the minor channels, which are valid, you can see micro channels, which are failed time after time and make TST with its powerful historical resistance. Once again I have to say that now I do not have any comment yet, until when I see a valid BOF(Break out failure) or PB(Pullback). But if we want to have a closer look, I have to say that without loosing its 2nd minor channel, get a narrow angle and get out of the 2nd valid channel. Follow and like us if you liked our posts.
by omidu1994