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The MA Ribbon Points To A New Crypto Bull Run This is a short and simple post. On the left is the current weekly chart for the total cryptocurrency market valuation in billions. Support and resistance levels are given, with $230B being the most important level, in my opinion. You can see why if you zoom out. If you look closely, you can see that we just had a DOUBLE bullish cross. What does this mean? Both the 50 and 9 week MA's just crossed above the 100, resulting in the perfect alignment to support parabolic movement. On the right, you can see how the MA ribbon perfectly supported the previous bull market. The last time these weekly moving averages were aligned in this way (200, 100, 50, 9 from the bottom up) was before the bearish cross in June 2018. The last time these moving averages TRANSITIONED into this alignment was in May, 2016. This fits with my current view on where we are in the market cycle. Although we can bounce around for a bit before moving up, this alignment is an extremely bullish signal, not to mention the weekly MACD just flipped green. For my perspective to become bearish, we would need a sustained breakdown back below that important 230B level. Anything above there is fair game for the bulls, in my opinion. This is not financial advice. I just wanted to share something that I thought was interesting. I mentioned it in my most recent analysis, but this post is ONLY about this particular observation. This is meant for speculation, education, and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by VictorCobra
1
BTC 4H Bull Flag AttemptBulls remain very strong in the short term with no red flags. Coinbase 4H inside bar broke bearish with no follow through, making it a possible bull flag. Other exchanges did not break it bearish so we just have multiple inside bars. In either scenario the burden of proof remains on the bears, who have been nonexistent for 3 days. For every $100 higher we see over $9,200, the odds of our monthly equilibrium thesis increase. This creates more space for the bulls off the lows, as they try and make their way to the midway point between $6,430 and $13,800s. Eyes remain on BTC.D chart as the daily equilibrium tightens and we wait for a break later this week to determine if BTC or Alts are the best way to play the bulls.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
6
BTC 4H Higher Low Watch Bulls with a solid end to the week last night, and just looking for a 4H higher low ideally holding the EMA12 support. Daily lower high resistance is still intact and we will have to see those resistances break if we are going to have confidence in weekly consolidation being delayed. Bulls are either in positions, looking for entry on this 4H consolidation, or waiting for the daily lower highs to break for the bulls to prove their strength. Significant stock market weakness and gold strength this morning but not much impact on BTC doing its own thing. I will continue to monitor for correlations, which has been few and fleeting over the last couple years. BTC.D dominance chart remains in a tightening range, looking for a break sometime in the next few days. Bulls looking for a daily higher low there for a continued tightening range.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
VET is Close, But Must Clear This Downtrend FirstHere's an update on my VET analysis. Originally, I made a post showing that VeChain could make a move like XRP in 2017. This was when VET was still near $0.004. Since then, VET doubled and got rejected near the major $0.01 resistance, only to continue forming a downtrend (orange). It has just recently tested this downtrend again, further confirming it as resistance. In my last analysis, I said I thought more consolidation would be needed, and I was right. This was because Bitcoin didn't seem like it wanted to move up yet. Ultimately, I think if VET can break above that downtrend with volume, it can head straight up towards the 3 cents zone, leaving the bear market behind for good. It will need to close a daily candle above it, for starters. You can see that XRP also had to contend with a strong downtrend in 2017. It also only really broke out when Bitcoin tested its previous all time high, so perhaps VET will need to wait a little longer. Overall, the cryptocurrency market looks much better than it has in months. This is because many have broken out of their downtrends, and Bitcoin dominance is declining slightly, which I think is a sign of new money entering the market. However, we should be careful here. Dominance hasn't officially broken down from the enormous rising wedge yet, and sentiment is very bullish. Many cryptos are arguably over-extended on their current moves, even though VET hasn't moved up by much this week. I think it's very possible we see a severe market dump soon, even if it's short lived. Zoomed in, VET looks primed for a breakout, since it's above all its important daily moving averages, but this also means it has room to fall. Same can be said for the weekly: The problem is that the oscillators do show plenty of room to drop, though they can also simply bounce here. Volume still looks decent for consolidation, but if we're continuing to compare VET with XRP in 2017, we can have one final test of the $0.003 level, if the market decides to head to a final low. No one knows whether or not this will happen, so anyone who's actively trading should prepare for all possibilities. Also anyone who says "this WILL DEFINITELY HAPPEN" shouldn't be trusted. Regardless, I still think that the zone between $0.003 and $0.006 provides a good long-term buying opportunity, with proper risk management exercised. Crypto is obviously still highly speculative. This is not financial advice. This is for personal use and speculation. Some previous VET analyses are linked below. -Victor Cobra
BINANCE:VETUSDLong
by VictorCobra
8
BTC 4H Oversold Conditions Daily downtrend as we shift focus towards the weekly time frames. Currently a weekly inside bar forming and if that is the case Sunday night, we will have to see a bear break of this level to begin looking for a weekly higher low. Hourly EMA12 resistance on bounce attempts, then 4H EMA resistances. Bulls looking for a short term bounce today to cool off RSI levels. I personally have some LTC bids set but they are picky to ensure the trade comes to me in more extreme conditions if I am going to be filled. I personally will be just looking for a daily lower high (so will bears) if any bounce gets enough follow through. Video later this afternoon to check in on the sector!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
4
Litecoin Goes 50% Since My Bottom Call + Crypto BreakoutHere's an update on Litecoin and the rest of the cryptocurrency market. My views since August have remained pretty consistent, in the sense that I did not expect Dominance to make a new high, and I also expected the $40-50 zone for LTC to hold. Bitcoin's little cousin dropped briefly below $40, but was bought fairly aggressively. My call was for Litecoin to head up at least towards the 200d MA (blue) once $45 was broken. It currently lies close to the $66 psychological level. I think there's a decent chance we get up there if $60 is breached again. I think the market is due for a reset soon, but the question is...does it occur after Litecoin hits the 200d MA? Or does it happen right now, sending us to retest the 100d MA (green), around $50? These are the pink and yellow scenarios respectively. Currently, we may be a little overextended, so I would be surprised if we continued straight up even past $66 without a bigger correction/consolidation. Either way, I expect Litecoin to potentially head up near the $100 level, perhaps around $93, before the next longer consolidation period. I'd really like to see it get comfortably back above the 200d MA. The same goes for Bitcoin and the rest of the market. Speaking of which, the total market cap (left) is trying to break above the 200d MA right now. The crypto total market cap is comfortably back above the extremely pivotal $230B level. I've talked about this level over and over again in my posts. You can see here why it's so important if you zoom out on the left-hand chart. This is a very strong signal. In order for the crypto market co continue looking bullish, even if we correct briefly towards the $220B level, I'd really like to see us get back above $230B rather quickly for continuation. The next resistance would be at the $270 Billion level. After that, we can test the June 2019 highs. On the bearish side, we don't want to see Litecoin head back into the bearish channel (pink), as that would indicate a failed breakout and a likely markdown in price to come. Previous LTC analysis where I called the recent bottom: Bitcoin analysis where I also called the recent potential bottom, based on the bullish weekly MA cross: Analysis where I suggested altcoin ratios and prices needed to move up soon, to prevent BTC dominance from reaching 80%: This is not financial advice! This is for my personal record, and for speculation + education only. When I get something right, I do sometimes like to gloat, but analysis isn't about getting it right. It's about the process of figuring out what's going on. If I get it right, it just adds a little something to it. If I get it wrong, well that's that! I'll also add that I'm about to become a lot more busy. My updates may become a bit more sparse, since I'll be working closer to 40 hours a week. -Victor Cobra
BITFINEX:LTCUSDLong
by VictorCobra
Timing A Bottom With Stellar (Part 2) - When Breakout?It's time for an update on one of the worst performing cryptocurrencies from 2019! How about that downtrend, eh? XLM has over twenty (20!!!) weekly touches on this downtrend since the peak in early 2018. That means, in the last 100 weeks, XLM has spent about 20% of the time testing this downtrend on the weekly. That's both impressive and depressing. The trend is extremely powerful and calculated. HOWEVER, there is a reason why this time *might* be different. For one thing, XLM hasn't even attempted to test the bottom of the long term bearish channel since nearly a year ago. This might be a hint of seller exhaustion, while buyers very slowly take control. For another, the weekly stoch is showing a lot of potential upside if it happens to break out here. Clearly, there's no real point in assuming a bull market for XLM until it closes above the 200w MA, which has just recently formed around 10 cents. But this analysis is not really about trading in the short term. It's about potentially catching a long term bottom for Stellar Lumens. In my last post, I tried to call the bottom around $0.053. As if in direct response, XLM exploded up all the way towards 9 cents immediately after my analysis. Unfortunately, it ended up being a devastating fakeout. The beautifully forming "fulcrum bottom" failed miserably, and XLM fell to a new low, in the low 4 cents zone. However, this low was bought up, and XLM is now back up against the downtrend, and rather quickly as well. It's also well above the previous broken support at 5 cents. On the daily, we just briefly broke the downtrend again, but got rejected at the 200d MA: If we're going by historical precedent, XLM should fall apart again at the downtrend and head to new lows, along with many other alts. But...this time, Bitcoin dominance is very close to breaking down from the uptrend it's held for 2 years. This means that this may be the start of a positive correlation between Bitcoin price and altcoin dominance. To me, this is a healthier crypto market, because it means new participants could be entering, rather than the same old money just flowing around between Bitcoin and alts. This would make sense, given that the stock market has been rallying hard, which makes investors more likely to gamble on "risky" and speculative assets like cryptocurrencies. XLM has the advantage of being on Coinbase (even in New York, finally), and it has been around now for 6 years. It's also one of the fastest and cheapest coins out there. Being open-source, developers can build on top of the network, bringing more value and diversity to the ecosystem. I've also always liked Stellar because they willingly give out their coins to facilitate adoption. While this may cause some sell pressure, it increases decentralization over time. Being one of the most usable cryptocurrencies for everyday transactions helps. Eventually, XLM is one of those cryptos that I hope to use while traveling. This is not financial advice. This is for speculation, education, and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
BITTREX:XLMUSDLong
by VictorCobra
8
NEO Breaks The Bear Market Downtrend!In my last NEO analysis, I suggested that if it broke this downtrend, it could head up to the $32 area at least. That's an important level from the previous bull market. Unfortunately, NEO has taken quite a while to break out, which may limit upside a bit. Instead of $20 being the first target, we must first clear $13.70-$14.00. However, the Ultimate Oscillator has clearly broken out on the WEEKLY, which is significant indeed. The weekly Ultimate Oscillator has ventured into bullish territory for many alts for the first time since 2016. This could mean that this breakout should be taken seriously, and it's time to load up on promising cryptocurrencies. Time will tell, but if NEO can hold above the 50w MA (red) here, I think it can easily test the $13.70 area. If it breaks above that with volume, it should head straight towards the 100w MA (green), near the $20 zone. From there, we will have to see if NEO can break out further and make its first higher high of the bear market, signaling a trend reversal. Perhaps one of the reasons why NEO has done so well, even since 2019, is that the new 3.0 upgrade will bring interoperability to the NEO chain. This is an extremely important, if NEO (or any cryptocurrency) is going to survive through the next cycle. I mean, just look at the LINK chart and you can see how bullish cryptocurrency investors are in terms of interoperability. On the bearish side, we don't want NEO to get back into the downtrend, as that would be a signal that it can head to new bear market lows. Previous NEO analysis: Original NEO post where I called the bottom: NEO chart from November, 2018 when I suggested a move towards $5-6. This is not financial advice. This is meant for speculation, education, and entertainment only. -Victor Cobra
NLong
by VictorCobra
2
BTC 4H Trend GuideHealthy consolidation overnight as BTC sets a 4H higher low, holding EMA12 support and heading back to recent highs. Bulls continue to buy consolidation and the alt coin space has responded very well. I plan on holding BTC as long as we are in a 4H uptrend, and going back to cash to play hourly oversold bounces and watch for a daily higher low when it is lost. Alt coins have had some big opportunity recently. Remember they are much higher risk/reward and can be less liquid than bigger coins. It is important to set your own personal goals with trading. For example, saying "I am not trading alt coins because Dan does not" is not a good approach. i personally was highly aggressive in 2017-2018 which positioned myself to be able to be conservative from here on out with goal #1 to not give any of that profit back. If your goal #1 is make as much money trading crypto as you can, then you should have a different approach!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
5
BTC Daily Bull Break Congrats Bulls! How did we know to give the BTC video a thumbnail titled "Volatility imminent" yesterday? No crystal ball, it is just our good friend the equilibrium which gets to a point where you cannot get any tighter before the break occurs and traders and bots react to it. Every higher high on the daily from here continues to increase the odds that our monthly higher low has been set. Short term consolidation remains healthy as hourly EMA support is holding. If we lose this low, we will zoom out and look for a 4H higher low to form as a result. Alt coins are responding to the BTC strength as well, with the likes of LTC standing out. I am currently still holding half my position from the daily higher low, and will be using the $H trend as my guide for walking up stop losses. Next resistance $8,637 on the daily
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
3
BTC Tighter We Go BTC has remained in the anticipated 12H equilibrium through the weekend, leading us to a likely break today or tomorrow. Watch for a volume spike to be associated with the break. With a bear break, the daily higher low is at risk, with a bull break, we look for continuation of the daily uptrend to try for higher highs. Currently in a position from the play off daily EMA support and using the 12H higher low as a stop level. Some alt coins like LTC, EOS, BCH have already broken to daily higher highs, giving bulls some hope that BTC and the rest of the sector will follow.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
BTC Bulls Hoping for 12H Equilibrium BTC has been pulling back for a couple days now looking for the daily hgiher low to form, and I personally find the most clarity on the 12H chart. The bull move and pullback are significant enough to anticipate the most likely scenario is a bounce to a 12H lower high. If bulls can get over $8,000 we will be shaping up for an equilibrium. I personally had 2 of 4 bids filled 7,755, 7710. I was using daily EMA support as a guide and had bids from these levels down to $7,600. I have two choices... sell half and put my stop under the current low to ensure small profit worst case scenario, or stick with a bit higher risk/reward and hold for $8k+ anticipating the 12H lower high. We still have not changed the hourly trend so I will likely wait an hourly or so before I make a decision. This current bounce is very similar to the hourly bounce yesterday that started strong and quickly dumped to lower lows. A mid day video in 7 hours will update what I have chosen to do!
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
Altcoin Bulls Must Take Advantage Here (ETH/BTC + Dominance)Here we go. This is the last opportunity for crypto bulls who like alts to step up and buy, before Bitcoin dominance attempts to take out the high from September and potentially make its way up to the top of the wedge, and 80% dominance. If this happens, it would mean the death of many more altcoins that can't keep up in USD valuations as the bear market trudges on. On the right is Bitcoin dominance, while on the left is ETH/BTC. Here's dominance, zoomed out so you can view the wedge, with targets: ETH/BTC zoomed out, so you can see where all these supports, resistances, and trendlines originate: Zoomed in, there's clearly a bullish divergence on the daily Ultimate Oscillator, showing that there could be less strength behind this move down, than the recent move up. An explanation for this is that the altcoin and Bitcoin markets are a bit less correlated than they have been in the past. The dump on the ratio wasn't necessarily caused by people selling alts into Bitcoin, but by people buying Bitcoin and NOT alts. It's important to note that alts actually pumped an entire day before Bitcoin. Here are a couple more reasons why this is an important opportunity for altcoin bulls: 1) Potentially a failed high on the daily for dominance (and a failed low for Bitcoin ratios). This is supported by a minor bearish divergence on the dominance chart. 2) ETH/BTC has been flirting with a major downtrend (orange) for several weeks. It has briefly broken above it on more than one occasion. This is the first time ETH has made any significant attempts to break this 2-year downtrend. XRP is also flirting with a similar downtrend. These two are the highest alts by market capitalization, so it's important to watch them. I find the middle pink 2017 trendline interesting as well. If these two signals confirm, altcoin bulls have the opportunity to turn the charts in their favor. Bullish targets are shown in green, with the main target at the larger downtrend (since early 2017). As for dominance, it can fall to the rising wedge support at least. IF altcoin bulls can cause an evening star pattern to form on the dominance chart, it would be a signal that this is a possibility. I would be surprised if dominance didn't test the rising wedge support again before a new high anyway. A larger altcoin surge can occur if the wedge breaks down, and if the secondary downtrend for ETH/BTC is cleared. Bitcoin maximalists do not want this major downtrend cleared, as it would open the gateway towards new all-time lows for dominance. I must also emphasize that dominance can fall even as USD valuations fall. This analysis is purely about the altcoin/Bitcoin ratios. I also must point out that i've tried to call reversals on altcoins a number of times over the last year and a half. Many of them were spot on short term, but complete failures in the long term. This is not financial advice. I can easily be wrong. This is for speculation and education only. -Victor Cobra
Long
by VictorCobra
8
A New Bullish Projection For Cryptos ($500-700B Possible)Near the beginning of 2019, I made a projection showing that the total valuation of the cryptocurrency market could reach $300 Billion. The market then outperformed my expectations, reaching a high of around $360B in June before dropping. I believe that we've finally seen the extent of the correction now. It's been brutal, to say the least. I think there's a decent chance that some cryptocurrencies start to get closer to their all-time high levels, sooner rather than later. If history repeats, Bitcoin may have to reach its ATH before any other cryptos do the same, but dominance is still in a rising wedge that could break down at any moment. Hard to say. All I can see here, is that the crypto market has gotten very close to the 200 Week Moving Average and has found some strong. You can also see how important these horizontal levels (marked in red) are historically, when you look at the tail end of the previous bull cycle. As we speak, several established alts are back above broken supports from the last couple of months ($0.05 XLM , $0.22 XRP, and $142 ETH). This is a strong signal. On another note, this is arguably the first true bear market for the broader crypto market. This is the first bear market where we have the TOTAL and TOTAL2 charts, which are essentially indexes. This is extremely helpful for traders and potential investors. I think holding the 200w MA here is extremely important for that reason. At the bottom of this chart, you can see that I've drawn a speculative movement for the Ultimate Oscillator. I actually did this a while ago, so this is really a follow-up post. You can see that the UO has already broken out, as I anticipated. A break above the 56 level has predicted a larger run in the past. Circled in yellow, note that the weekly UO broke out above 56 again in October 2015, prior to the first higher high of the bear market. This is why I think we could be primed for some serious upside here. Maybe not all time high quite yet, but close. I don't necessarily think the market will make new highs this year. Whatever happens, my goal is to try to time the next market peak, and make a swing trade that can give me some extra capital moving forward. We'll see what happens! As for what could happen after the next peak, I think crypto can follow sort of what happened to Amazon in its early days - a slow, but steady rise until it goes parabolic based on true adoption. This is totally speculative: This is not financial advice. This is for my personal records, speculation, and education. -Victor Cobra
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by VictorCobra
BTC Hourly EquilibriumCongrats Bulls! BTC holding up extremely well after another day with big gains. If we break the equilibrium bullish we will look to $8,500. If we break it bearish we zoom out and look for a 4H higher low with EMA12 support as a guide. The odds our monthly higher low is set continue to increase with every green day. I personally am a believer that BTC is reacting to US/Iran news after watching it play out twice now in the last week. In a recent video I said "Next time I will look to act on it" which I did yesterday, and it paid off. Maybe it was just lucky timing but until it stops working, when I see Iran news significantly impact US markets and Gold, I will look for a bullish BTC position. I have never really traded the crypto space based on news so this is a bit higher risk/reward for me, and a different style to get used to. I am currently treating any bullish entries at these levels as day trades, with consolidation required on the daily chart for any swing trades. We will continue to watch for the "first" Oversold conditions on different time frames. For example I expect a nice bounce from hourly oversold conditions the next time we see it after this big bull run. There can also be plays based off support as long as they are low risk. Looking like an hourly equilibrium? Buy the higher low and put a stop under the first low of consolidation for example. Shorts want to see a loss of hourly supports at a bare minimum for any comfort in positions.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
1
Significant BTC Follow through Congrats bulls! 3D inverse head and shoulders we have been watching for a week has been confirmed, and both neckline resistances broke on the same move for added bull confidence. Our monthly higher low is set! Now we zoom out and look for a monthly lower high over the next couple months for the longer term equilibrium to be in play. Only notable volume across the sector would have me shift this as the most likely scenario. We have now seen +16% in 5 days since the US/Iran news. You better believe people will remember this and potentially react next time there is geopolitical uncertainty. There was also a $500M injection of tether to increase supply by about 13%. Some will say it is printed out of thin air, others will point to large capital in foreign countries... in the end we dont know! But we do know the market sees this as bullish. No 4 hour consolidation unless we see a break of $7,82o support, the current low of consolidation. Lots of bulls will be looking to buy a daily higher low, with daily EMA12/26 as a support guide. Bulls are not done yet! Setting up for another potential battle with $8k this morning.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
2
BTC Bulls Attempt 3D Inverse Head and Shoulders Note 3D is the 3 day time frame which I have chosen for clarity. This potential pattern was discussed in the crypto video yesterday. Potential short term catalyst with US/Iran tension, though reaction was delayed by a solid hour or two last night from when broader markets reacted. This will mean nothing if the result is just another lower high. It is break $7,689 the next couple days or bust for the BTC bulls. Normally when things get choppy in the sector I zoom out to the daily chart but recently even the daily has been a bit choppy on many coins. I like this 3 day chart because it is smooth and clearly shows what is needed for the bulls to take momentum into their favor. A bull break with alts following to negate weekly bear flags and increase odds of monthly higher lows being set is the goal for the sector bulls. Bears are going to be waiting at lower high resistances to top fish, hoping that this move was impulsive and the crypto space lacks any true significant correlation to global events and tensions. $7,531 was the last daily lower high and key resistance for today.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by TheChartGuys
4
THETAUSDT looking like it wants to runHey guys, I've been practicing TA for a little while now and it's time to put it to test in an accountable environment. Theta is quite an exciting project as it is trying to solve one of the biggest problems on the internet; video bandwidth. It has all the hallmarks of success and after a nice little run it's now heading back down into a sweet spot. I haven't added explicit entries, targets, or stops. I just have a rough idea of what I think price action will behave like. If you wish to take the trade yourself please exercise due caution and pick your entries and targets to suit your own trading style. Usually what I would propose is selling 75% at the first target, 10-20% at the next, and then let the remainder run. If you like this TA and found my content valuable please give me a follow on Twitter @SirSaltyThe1st Happy new year!
Long
by TheSaltFactory
1