BTC 12H Bear Flag Confirmed. After cooling off shorter term (4H) RSI levels, we have seen another leg down on BTC as we approach key $7,700 support, and get closer to confirming the weekly bear flag. Even the alt coins who have been holding up much better are starting to see some signs of the bulls losing their grip.
From here I will continue to patiently wait, as I have been for over a week, for a more favorable setup. The bears are very comfortable with most trends in their favor.
I personally will only begin to get interested in a BTC bounce when the daily and 4 hour RSI are BOTH in at least the mid 20s at the same time. We will still be looking for the monthly higher low to form, so I will remain interested in bounces.
Cryptocoin
BTC Low of Yesterday TestBTC Bears still keeping control, though the bulls are attempting to hold low of yesterday with a 4 hour higher low this morning. A lot of follow through will be needed from bulls to mean anything, but they are not rolling over and giving up in this range just yet.
We may trade within this range for the rest of the week so ensure you are able to be patient and not over trade! Remember, increase trading aggressiveness when tight ranges break, and pull back on the reigns when we are in tightening ranges. It helps to just set clear rules "I will not trade BTC while we are between $7,700 and $8,800. This ensures a new range before I even begin to develop a trade game plan.
Worth keeping tabs on the alt coins that still have daily up trends at this point, and there are a handful of them. XRP, BNB, ZRX are the first that come to mind.
BTC Hard for me to be Bullish this Daily Chart! I figured today is a good day to point out all the detail as to why I am not bullish BTC right now. Could we see continuation and a higher high to $9,000s? Absolutely, but in my opinion it is not worth the risk/reward for me to be in a bullish position right now.
First factor is the longer term time frame. We are looking for weekly lower highs on the vast majority of larger cap coins. Knowing that, and knowing anything for BTC under $10,939 is a lower high, tells us even if we do get bullish continuation our top of the move is likely not that far behind it.
Next we have the daily time frame. We have changed the daily trend after building a base of support in the $7,700s, and we saw very little follow through, before giving the move back. We now have a battle with EMA12 daily resistance, and we are 6% away from seeing a higher high on the daily.
Bears are going to be looking at a break of $8,146 as a signal, and the only play here for bulls would be a bottom fishing play off that level. If it breaks, the odds of heading back towards $7,700 increase a good bit.
The good news for crypto bulls is there are some other coins like ZRX, BNB, etc that have different setups and have been seeing more bullish action. Keep an eye on BNB, if we get a monthly higher low there we will be looking for monthly higher lows on most coins.
As a trader, if I do not like the setup, I stick to all cash and wait as long as need be until I get a setup I like. In the meantime I trade other markets to remain patient. Already playing the ETH move from $183 to mid $190s satisfied my profit thirst for the current daily move!
BTC Scouting 4H Lower HighSolid bounces all around after the dump yesterday broke to lower lows on BTC. Note most altcoins held their 4H supports to keep their daily higher lows intact. XRP bulls even saw a full recovery and breakout, leading to daily higher highs like those already seen on BNB. Watching BTC for a 4 hour equilibrium to form today if a lower high is set.
At this point the daily higher lows are still intact for most names, indicating our weekly lower highs have not been set yet. Continuing to watch BNB and XRP for lead clues as they have been some of the early moves that others have followed over the last couple weeks.
Personally still patiently waiting for clarity within this range. Attempted to play the bounce yesterday and just missed some ETH fills. No rush for me personally while I wait for more clear patters to develop.
BTC Scouting 4H Higher Low This is the daily chart view, but it is important to zoom in and note the 4 hour time frame is still very healthy consolidation still giving the bulls a chance to break resistance. If the 4H uptrend is lost without breaking the top $8,535, we will be looking for the daily range to remain tight through the week.
If alt coins like XRP and EOS that have seen a clear move higher lose their 4 hour uptrends, we zoom out and look for daily higher lows.
ETHUSD has a double top at resistance as does ETHBTC, both on the verge of another leg up but yet to follow through.
Currently all cash after the LINK trade Sunday and patiently waiting for tight ranges to break. Keep bigger picture in mind, IF we bull break, we look for a weekly lower high.
BTC Scouting Daily Higher LowBTC has been consolidating after the temporary bounce top on the daily and the way the 4 hour chart has been in a downtrend, without bears getting much follow through, has lead to scouting for a daily higher low.
Remember the bounce leaders like ETH, XRP and others have been setting little daily higher lows on their way up while BTC just went straight from the low to the high of the bounce on the daily.
At this point, after being stopped out in the $8,200s, I am scouting a spot I like for a potential re-entry on that position. There will be opportunity for both bulls and bears to fish against the recent highs and lows of this daily range. With a bull break, we zoom out and look for a weekly lower high vs. $10,934. There is also still daily EMA resistance approaching which we have not tested yet on this bounce.
Growth Could Be Slowing Down For Cryptocurrencies Impatient traders and investors won't like this one. In this analysis, I've updated my market cycle boxes based on recent price action. As you can clearly see, Bitcoin has broken down from the bullish channel (orange) I've been talking about for most of this year. That bullish channel, if held, would have indicated a period of accelerated growth for cryptocurrencies. Particularly if Bitcoin broke that channel resistance to the upside, we could have seen a second bubble, a bit like what happened in 2013. Instead, Bitcoin failed to hold the channel, which could mean that it cannot sustain a rally towards the all-time-high just yet. In the TOTAL2 market cap (left), you can see that altcoins could be about to break down from the uptrend they've held since 2015. It's possible that they've already broken out of it (which may explain the recent selloff). It's possible to draw the trendline (pink) so that we're still holding it, but based on market behavior I have some doubts as to whether it will hold.
Now, you may ask...even with these trends being lost, can the cryptocurrency market still experience long term growth? Of course it can. It would be far more ridiculous if cryptos continued to perfectly hold that trend, as it represents an absurd amount of growth. I wouldn't complain if we saw another mania like we saw in 2017, but I'm trying to provide a much more reasonable expectation here. Even so, I'm still making the assumption that cryptocurrencies will continue to grow in the foreseeable future. I may be wrong of course.
Not only am I starting to expect slower growth in this current cycle, but the market phases (numbered boxes) seem likely to be much longer than they were last cycle. Since Bitcoin retraced so heavily from its first impulse, it's now seeming more plausible that we are in Phase 2. This may also mean that we have even more sideways movement to endure. Perhaps Bitcoin needs to test the $6K zone after all. This would make sense, since the 100w MA is currently between 6700 and 6800. I wouldn't rule out a wick towards 6200 either. If Bitcoin is to continue long term price appreciation, I don't want to see it dip below 6K for long, or even stay in the 6K range for long either. If Bitcoin fails there, we may be looking at an even gloomier picture for the crypto market, as it would mean that we were never in a bull market to begin with. For now, I'll remain patiently bullish here.
I added a new feature to these charts as well. You can see that there's a green curve. This represents the deceleration of growth over time. It has already happened with Bitcoin (just look at the BLX chart), so I think it's possible it will happen with altcoins as well. Just maybe...alts have one more cycle of insane gains before growth slows down, but I'm starting to think this is unlikely.
Right now, the market is split into two camps: Those that are impatient for a bull market to start and those that think cryptocurrencies are at least heading to new lows, if not dying out altogether. The reason I think it's very possible we simply enter a slow growth stage is because neither of these parties is probably right. The market movement is a result of an agreement between buyers and sellers. For periods, sellers can be in control. Same with buyers. That's what creates bull and bear cycles. At this moment, I don't think either side is strong enough to make a convincing move, but the long term trend is still up. As such, I think it is unlikely that cryptocurrencies begin a face-melting bull run soon, and equally unlikely that the market heads to new lows. With this in mind, I think it's possible that the low is set. The weekly RSI still looks fairly bullish, particularly for alts (check out the fractal from 2015 - circled). We could have one more leg down, but my expectation (as outlined in this chart) is that the market gets fairly close to all-time high levels by next summer at the earliest. Don't get me wrong, this is still an insane amount of growth in a short amount of time. But I feel like many people think it needs to happen sooner. The impatience and bitterness from this community is quite palpable.
Based on this "roadmap," you can see that Bitcoin may not actually even break its all-time high until 2022. Even if it does, I'm capping the target at around $100K or just below, for now. We don't know how Bitcoin would handle prices that high, so I think it's important to be conservative. At higher prices, Bitcoin's flaws become more apparent, so I I still expect alts to outperform in this coming cycle. It's hard to say where they could end up, but I do still think they can be worth trillions of dollars. That is....unless the market is about to collapse...hmmm.
This all goes to show you how important it is to keep up to date with what's going on. I'll remind you, even though I've changed my outlook a few times, I've nailed pretty much every major move for this market since last November. I've gotten pretty good at timing market extremes. My next written post will be a "year in review" of sorts, where I'll talk a bit about my experience analyzing this market, what I've learned, and where I've succeeded, despite numerous failures. Today, I just wanted to get this out there, because it's a significant change from what I've been hoping for this year. It's likely I won't be posting nearly as often in the coming months (unless something really changes). I might have to focus more on stocks, particularly since warning signs are still loud and clear on that front. I've already slowed down my post rate from when I started. I think it's better to focus on quality rather than quantity anyway.
Well, that's it from me. Thanks to everyone who reads my posts. It means a lot that some of you find my analysis helpful. I must of course caution that this is not financial advice. I write about the market mostly for my own sake. Posts like these help me rationalize my fear and greed. This is meant for entertainment and education only. Trade at your own peril.
-Victor Cobra
BTC Daily Double Bottom BTC bulls defending support with a solid 3%+ bounce off the lowest price we have seen on this pullback. We still have the top of the bounce resistance to be watching at $8,343 and as long as that level is resistance, the bears have the upper hand on the daily chart. If bulls are able to break it, we look to daily EMA resistance.
The short term action will likely lead to an hourly equilibrium this morning, as the move came entirely off the low and we have not even changed the hourly trend yet. Bulls need a higher low to form on the hourly and then lower highs will have to break. Right now the bulls only played defense, and they will have to start going on some offense for it to be significant.
LTC, ETH and many alt coins are holding up a bit better than BTC the last 4 days, but still looking for their own daily lower highs even if their bounces see some further continuation. Bears are establishing their game plans for potential entries. I am still in my BTC position from $7,800, no other bids filled on the drop and I will patiently hold it with an exit target in the mid to upper $8,000s.
BTC Hourly Tightening RangeAfter the weekly p [pattern bear break and dump yesterday,, BTC is now finding a range but still has hourly EMA resistance. The bears still have control and it is entirely possible we see another leg down. Have your game plan set to go!
With daily RSI oversold I will be looking to reload some BTC as well as ETH if we see another leg down. If this occurs I will be holding a bit longer and looking to sell on a daily lower high bounce. After locking in profit on the bounce yesterday that allows me lots of comfort to establish positions again, without being too over extended in my positions. Coins and their BTC pairings will also be key, as we look to see who has the bigger % moves off the lows.
Bears are comfortable in their positions with no reason to cover. If cash and looking for a bearish position, I personally would be waiting for at least a 4 hour lower high for things to cool off on the mid term time frames. Bears can also be patient and wait for daily lower highs as well.
BTC Weekly Support Test ApproachingThese two levels are THE range to be watching on BTC as we head into Q4 2019 to dictate momentum to end the year. Bears had full control yesterday, and we have yet to see much meaningful bounce on the hourly and 4 hour charts. Bulls backs are against the wall and they must defend this level to remain inside the pattern. I will have to see a 4 hour trend change to believe they can pull it off and we have not even seen a 4 hour bounce start yet.
If I am looking to play this broader pattern there are multiple ways to do it. I can bottom fish $9,300 support with an entry down here and hope for enough of a bounce to remain inside the equilibrium. If I am looking bearish, 4 hour RSI levels are at a point where I would not be comfortable entering a stop short on a break of $9,300. I would want to see a bounce and a daily lower high, cooling things off and recharging the bears first. Anything under $10,379 is a daily lower high so I would top fish that level after we bounced a few % off the lows.
In reality I personally will be traveling this week, so I will only be making quick flips like an LTC oversold bounce flip like yesterday 63s avg to 65s avg. I will potentially bottom fish $9,300 if we get another push down with no bear follow through.
LTC weekly bear flag is alive and well, and will confirm if BTC breaks this pattern bearish. That would be a cautionary red flag to all alt coins for the potential of weekly lower lows.
BTC Bulls Need to Regain Short Term MomentumOver the last 17 days, 15 of them have seen a lower high compared to the previous day for BTC. With that fact it is pretty impressive we are still holding up within the tightening pattern, but bulls must show up and regain a 4 and 12 hour uptrend if they hope to remain in this pattern through this week.
We are slowly fading back down to our recent low, which has little space before $9,321 and 9,000 must hold levels for bulls. Daily RSI is close to breaking under 40, which means if we were to get a bear break this week, daily RSI would get oversold fairly quickly.
Alts coin bulls are hoping for BTC to remain within this range as well, as that has allowed some independent bullish action. LTC and ETH are both looking for daily higher lows, and BTC changing the 4 hour trend would only help that occur in my opinion. LTC is one step ahead of ETH in finding the daily higher low, as we have broken the high of yesterday.
BTC Scouting Daily Higher LowBulls need a 4 hour trend change to be looking for the daily higher low. If we get it today or tomorrow we will look to stay within this daily range until weekend. While we remain in this tightening range, Alts continue to have some slack to make their own moves.
ETH and LTC continue to have goo weeks, and today we are watching to see if LTC can play laggard and catch up to where ETH is for strength. If the BTC pairings of these coins remains in a daily uptrend AND we get a BTC daily bull break of its own tightening range, the odds that monthly higher lows have been set on these coins will increase a good amount.
Traders can be looking to make a play on BTC in either direction when this pending break occurs. The tighter the better. As always, we have to ensure multiple levels break. If only 1 support or 1 resistance breaks and we do not get follow through, it is a read flag for that direction.
Timing A Bottom With Stellar (XLM)Wow, the bear market for XLM really seems never-ending doesn't it? Well, the good news is, there are several factors leading me to believe that this may FINALLY be the bottom. I know, I've tried to call the bottom on the XLM/BTC ratio a number of times this year, but each time XLM broke support. I did mention, however, that XLMUSD was still in a clear downtrend, and that it wouldn't be a great idea to buy until it exits. This is actually why I didn't even buy XLM in the December - February period, when I bought ETH, LTC, NEO, and others. One can still wait for XLM to break out, but this post is about speculating on a potential bottom RIGHT NOW. The trade setup would be to buy the breakout of course, but this is about timing a bottom. My last several posts have been an attempt to figure out what's going on in the market, and I'm starting to become convinced that Bitcoin dominance has topped out, and that the next wave up for the entire market should begin sometime this fall. I think it's important to emphasize again that many alts are resembling Bitcoin's second bottom from 2015 in a number of ways. You can read more about that in some of my other posts, or watch my videos.
Looking at the chart, we can see that the last long consolidation period for XLM ended with a slow bleed out (circled in yellow). You can also see that on this particular exchange, XLM experienced a small flash crash event. I drew a potential purple uptrend line from the final bottom in 2017 until now. I also added a purple rising trend line towards the top, to show where price may eventually stall out in the future. I've drawn a speculative squiggle up to $5 by May 2020 (as I think the next major market peak - at the earliest - could coincide with the Bitcoin halving, as we saw with the recent Litecoin peak). The market as a whole is actually starting to look a bit more healthy - even BNB (overinflated this year, in my opinion) is finally correcting, and other alts aren't following it on its ratio decline.
Indicators are also at rock bottom right now. I would not be surprised to see (finally) a major move for this particular cryptocurrency. I've always liked Stellar, particularly because they don't care about price as much as other crypto projects. They care more about financial inclusion and accessibility. I've been worried a bit about the long term survivability of the project, but the recent news about the former Zelle co-founder migrating to a Stellar project re-ignited some of my enthusiasm. Additionally, even though Stellar's correction has been much longer than other cryptos, its decline is in line with most major alts. This includes Ethereum. Actually, ETH's decline from above $1400 to $80 was more severe (factor of 18) than XLM's decline from $0.95 to $0.058 (factor of 16), if this is the bottom here.
Let's also take a look at the XLM/BTC ratio. This is a horrendous looking chart, but if it holds current levels, it would confirm previous long term resistance as support. Just look back to 2016. Price is also very close to exiting the never-ending falling wedge after the flash crash tested the bottom of it as support.
On the XLM/USD chart, you can also see that XLM has retested a very important resistance level from 2017 as support. This is a subtly bullish development as well. There could be some minor downside here, and I'd watch to see if XLM makes a break towards the bottom of the downtrend channel (blue). That would be a bearish development and invalidate my analysis.
Of course, this is not financial advice. I'm just doing my best to analyze what's going on in this crazy market. This is for personal use, educational purposes, and for entertainment only. I am not a professional financial advisor.
-Victor Cobra
BTC Cannot Get Much Tighter BTC sideways trading as volume continues to decrease. Break is imminent today or tomorrow which will tell us either:
1.) Our daily lower high is set
2.) Our daily lower high has not been set
We will still expect to stay within the broader equilibrium a bit longer even after the daily inside bars breaks.
While trading sideways, some of the alt coins continue to gain some ground vs. BTC. I personally have added a bit of LTC and ETH to my long term no touch positions this weekend as the positions previously were very BTC heavy.
If BTC bear breaks this daily equilibrium it will still be possible for ETH and LTC to have weekly bear flags, if it breaks bull, those odds will decrease a good bit.
BTC Daily Higher Low Set Bulls changed the 4 hour trend to give us a clear higher low, and the daily range continues to tighten. We will look for the daily lower high to be set when the 4 hour uptrend is lost. It is currently consolidating and looking for a higher low.
ETHBTC and LTCBTC have been consolidating on the daily looking for a higher low to try and eventually change the daily trend. The USD pairings have been relatively weak the last few days due to this.
We will continue to expect volatility to drop off in the sector as BTC tightens this range, and just as everyone gets bored and volume gets very low we will look for a break, and more clarity on the longer term weekly chart.
BTC 4 Hour Trend Must ChangeWeakness continues in BTC as we do not have any indication of a daily higher low being set yet. 4 hour EMA resistance continues to reject the price, but the bears are not getting much follow through to the lower lows. BTC bears are using 4 hour EMA resistance as a guide. Volatility in general is likely to shrink the next week or two in my opinion.
ETH, LTC and some other alts are holding up well during this weakness, and they can only hope the strength in their BTC pairing charts continues when BTC does change the 4 hour trend bullish. If this were to play out we would likely see continued higher high on their USD daily charts. Still in LTC for about 4 days at this point as we ping pong between a $3 range.
BTC 4 Hour Support Test BTC continues to tighten from the range set yesterday. We have EMA resistance on the 4 hour, and bulls are currently trying to hold the higher low of support and stay within this range through the morning. We must see a bull break for our daily higher low to be set.
While we have traded within this range, LTC moved to a higher high, while ETH remained in a similar 4 hour pattern, but in a more favorable spot for the bulls with 4 hour EMA support. These two coins still have my attention as we watch for the possibility their BTC pairings could change the daily trend bullish for the first time in a long time into next week.
BTC volatility has dropped the last 24 hours and I expect a short term spike in volatility when this 4 hour range breaks.
BTC Daily Consolidation ContinuesBTC pulling back to lower lows on this consolidation, which is getting to a point where bulls need to show up and change the 4 hour trend. This would give us a daily higher low that we were patiently waiting for on the move up.
Still watching LTC and ETH gain some relative strength vs. BTC and that is where my interest has shifted in the shirt term. I am still riding an LTC position and the setup is such that we will likely see follow through on the daily trend change if BTC is able to change the 4 hour trend bullish.
EOSUSD is another alt coin standing out for the impressive bull move the last few days. Other alt coins are hoping for the same fate. If BTC trades sideways within a range all week, that gives alt coins some room to move a bit on their own, without significant correlation impact.
BTC Bulls Breaking the Top of the MoveDaily inside bar bull break and continuation for the bulls, shifting sights to resistance $10,953. The pattern of a higher low every day for the last 8 days remains intact, but we still do not have a clear trend change on the daily with a higher low and continuation.
Get over $11k and our focus shifts to key weekly lower high resistance of $12,300. Bulls are comfortable and keeping continued pressure on shorts. 4 hour EMA 12 support continues to be a short term guide as well.
The question we have for the next couple weeks is: Are we going to head back to recent resistances, or remain in a tightening weekly chart for another month+. Keep in mind we can go another 10% from here and still not be breaking weekly lower high resistance yet. Regardless, bulls are comfortable and in the drivers seat!
BTC Still Healthy on the 4HA few flushes overnight for the 5 and 15 min RSI to get oversold again, with each time resulting in some bounce. This shows us the bulls are keeping control and there are dip buyers stepping in. Expecting a daily inside bar to form today and if it does, how it breaks tomorrow will indicate if this move has topped out and daily consolidation is underway... or the move still has juice left for the bulls.
EMA 12 support on the 4 hour is approaching, and whether it holds or not will likely dictate the direction the potential inside bar will break. I am remaining patient and would be more comfortable scaling in for the daily higher low.
Keeping an eye on possible correlations to Gold. They are not screaming obvious to me at this point but there are enough similarities to be paying attention.
Observing Bitcoin Dominance At ExtremesI've seen a lot of posts calling for a drop in Bitcoin dominance here. Most are looking at the rising wedge and extremely overbought weekly indicators, divergences, etc. But here's something I noticed. It may not mean anything, of course. On the right is the inverted Dominance chart from the altcoin peak in the beginning of 2018. On the left is the recent top for Dominance. You can see that each extreme was characterized by an initial blowoff and then a series of failed trend continuations (lower highs, in our current case) before an eventual reversal. What's crazy is that the dominance bottom in 2018 actually took much longer. So this could go on for a while, although the little blue downtrend I've drawn says otherwise. In addition, if we want to talk sentiment, do you remember how crazy the altcoin mania was at the bottom for Bitcoin dominance? Most people (myself included) thought that Bitcoin would be dethroned. Now, we observe the polar opposite extreme. Most people have clearly sold their alts for Bitcoin and are extremely skeptical that Bitcoin will ever be challenged again. This push and pull between Bitcoin maximalism and development in the blockchain space is necessary for the crypto market to continue evolving, in my opinion. This dynamic needs to evolve in order for growth to remain healthy, and for people to feel motivated to build things in the crypto space. And right now, I think we are at an extreme. I don't think the market can handle much more of this and stay healthy. These are my opinions. Take 'em or leave 'em.
We still do not know whether or not we've seen the top for Bitcoin Dominance. I did try to call the bottom on ETH/BTC recently, and I said that between 17800 and 18200 was the support zone to look at (obviously with a stop loss). So far, that zone has indeed acted as strong support. My analysis will be invalidated of course if Dominance makes a new high. The 70-72% resistance zone should be very strong, considering this was a major pivot area during the great altcoin bull market of 2017. If the high is set, it would be pretty bullish for the whole space. If dominance makes a new low thereafter, it would confirm that Bitcoin Dominance is in a macro downtrend. One step at a time though. There are fundamental reasons for a high Bitcoin dominance as well, which should not be ignored: Risk aversion, network effect, liquidity, brand recognition, security, etc.
However, I do not think it's unlikely that we eventually get a substantial influx of capital into coins like XRP and ETH (the two biggest movers in the crypto space, other than BTC). All the signs are there that would allow for some cryptocurrencies to play catch up soon. XLM (one of the worst performing major alts) has snuck out of its falling wedge on low volume, which is much better than a high volume rejection. Volume should be low following a bottom for a bullish asset, because demand needs to be able to naturally outpace supply, without much effort. This is what happened to Bitcoin earlier this year when it consecutively broke out of several downtrends. Those downtrend breaks, although on low volume, allowed me to speculate that the bottom had been in. Volume doesn't really come in for crypto until peak mania, as we saw when Bitcoin was at $13.8K.
Here's the dominance chart next to the Bitcoin/USD chart to show the speculative market cycle phases I've drawn out (boxes 1-10). The blue boxes represent sideways consolidation periods for Bitcoin, while the pink represent impulse moves. You can see that the first real drop for Dominance didn't occur until Box 6, when Bitcoin tested its previous all-time-high, but that dominance already showed some signs of weakness in Boxes 4 and 5.
In our current cycle, I think we are potentially in Box 4 (the first sideways period after the first two big moves). I guess it's even possible that we're in Box 1, which would actually be even better for alts. But it seems that the cycles are a little out of wack, with Bitcoin bottoming faster and alts extending their own bottoms. Hard to say.
Anyway, that's it. Just wanted to post this for future reference. This is not financial advice. This is for personal and educational purposes only.
-Victor Cobra