BitCoin BTC/USD (2018 is a bad year for HODLer)View On BTC/USD (31 Dec 2018)
2018 was a bad year for HODLer.
Many aunties and uncles get burnt, chasing the hype of crypto. It was a hard lesson for them realize again that there is no such thing as Free/easy lunch.
Bitcoin is using $3,000 as a launch pad and it is trying to absorb sell pressure.
Take note of the strong resistant near 4,200 level. Once it is broken UP (only if), we have $6,000 as a good resistant.
And $6,000 level will be the Ultimate Resistant and it will be VERY HARD to break that barrier.
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Cryptocoin
BTC Potential 4 Hour Bear FlagBTC oversold bounce from the dump was slow and lacked bull volume, looking to form just a 4 hour lower high.
I would not be surprised to see little follow through on a bear break initially as I believe a daily higher low bounce attempt is coming within the next day or two.
I currently do not like any bullish position entries as we are floating in the middle of the range from the bottom to the top of the daily bounce.
Patiently waiting for the daily range to tighten and give us some clarity rather than buy in hoping for a higher low.
Watching 4 hour EMA resistance as well, which has not yet been tested on this bounce.
BTC 4 Hour Lower High Set Follow up on the previous video, BTC bulls saw the hourly descending triangle (shown here on the 4 hour chart) break bullish. After the break, we zoom out and see that a 4 hour lower high is likely to form on that bull move.
Now we are watching to see, can the bulls hold support and break to a higher high, changing the 4 hour trend back to the bulls, or do we fade back and break support for a lower low and further daily consolidation.
Note the top of the bounce rejected from 4 hour EMA resistance, which are key levels to watch today as well.
The next day or two of consolidation will be very telling as to whether or not we will see the daily trend change confirmed with continuation.
BTC Tight Hourly Equilibrium BTC is giving us a perfect equilibrium which will either dictate a bear break and daily consolidation, or a bull break and continuation.
I personally have a stop set on the rest of my position to trigger if we get the bear break.
We would also likely lose the 4 hour EMA 12 support for the first time on this move, as well as an hourly EMA 12 and 26 bear cross with a bear break as well.
We are anticipating healthy daily consolidation to form a higher low, and volume will be a big factor to determining how healthy it is.
Bears are looking for a potential entry on the break of this pattern, but with a bull break anyone entering should be thinking very short term in my opinion due to the daily chart being extended on the bounce.
BTC Bulls Significant Follow ThroughCongrats bulls!
This is the most significant move we have seen in a long time, and it gives bulls plenty of space to form a daily higher low when consolidation does come.
Bulls have a good chance of seeing a bull cross of EMA 12 and 26 on the daily as well as long as daily consolidation is healthy when it comes.
The hourly and 4 hour up trends are clear with supports established, and EMA 12 on these time frames will be supports to watch as well.
Note the 4 hour RSI is getting a bit extended and we are due for 4 hour consolidation today to form another higher low.
We are already shaping up for a high volume day with a long way to go.
I had 1 sell order fill on coinbase $3,789 while sleeping, putting me down to a half position from my original entry. From here I will continue to play the 4 hour uptrend for the rest of the position.
Bears should be patient and wait for at least a loss of the hourly uptrend.
BTC 4 Hour Range SetHealthy consolidation as bulls try and form a 4 hour higher low.
EMA 12 and 26 support is catching up and we are likely to see an equilibrium tightening range form today.
The Hourly chart hitting a lower high and lower low, without getting much follow through, is also a good sign for bulls.
Both longs and shorts have been closing out leveraged positions during the most recent consolidation.
If the bulls cannot see continuation today, we will have a daily inside bar.
Still holding 2/3 my BTC position and I will look to exit if the current low of consolidation breaks.
BTC 4 Hour Sideways Channel Currently a triple top at the high of this bounce, with a clear support level that must hold for short term bulls.
Keep in mind that even with a bull break we still have daily EMA 12 resistance waiting.
We are still currently lacking bull volume which is not giving us a whole lot of confidence that progress on the daily is being made.
I personally will be waiting for a daily trend change in this setup before I am interested in a bull.
Bears are patiently waiting for an entry looking for a lower high on the daily compared to $3,486.
Continue to compare alts into two groups: those that have broken to daily lower lows and those still holding support.
BTC 4 Hour Trend Change AttemptContinuing where the video last night left off, the bulls have to change the 4 hour trend for a daily higher low to be set.
The bulls are defending support and giving us a tightening range in the daily.
EMA 12 resistance on the daily is now back in play as we tighten up, leading to an interesting end of the week!
The bulls have a chance to break the daily lower highs and get over EMA resistance.
Bulls needs to remain patient with 4 hour EMA still resistance, and those wanting to be aggressive are looking for a higher low on the 4 hour and the stop level to use would be $3,294.
Bears are waiting to pounce on a loss of 4 hour support.
BTC Potential Daily Bear Flag CloseBTC bulls have completely disappeared the last two days, with an extremely weak 4 hour bounce into a bear flag
which is resulting in the weak daily bounce as a potential bear flag.
With a break we will be looking to $3,000 psychological.
We have to constantly remind ourselves... we can always go lower.
The bulls are proving nothing on the longer term time frames, and as long as bulls keep the mindset of:
"Not interested as long as daily EMA 12 is resistance" It can keep them from over trading and fighting the trend.
Many alt coins have no support under current lows and continue to be prime for bears and shorts to see gains.
BTC 4 Hour Higher Low Watch BTC bulls are scouting for a higher low to form after the bull move yesterday.
We will need to see an hourly trend change for us to be confident it has been set.
The more we pull back, the more likely a 4 hour equilibrium is coming today.
Still watching the daily EMA resistance as it drops down each day.
Daily inside bar forming today and if the 4 hour tightens as anticipated we could see it form.
This is the kind of setup first thing that we can look at, see a sideways day most likely setting up, and know to not over trade into decreasing volatility, whether you are a bull or a bear.
BTC 4 Hour Inside BarsDump to lower lows last night that has not resulted in much of a bounce at this point.
Bulls are battling hourly EMA resistance, and if we see another leg up on the bounce we will be looking at 4 hour EMA 12 resistance.
Everyone is looking for potential capitulation but these lazy bounces are an indication that is not the case yet.
Better % opportunity on bounces by the likes of ETH and alts with more volatility.
For now my thought process is:
Break hourly EMA resistance? Zoom out to 4 hour
Break 4 hour EMA resistance? Zoom out to daily
Break daily EMA resistance? Now I am more interested as a bull.
Also significant bull volume would catch my attention.
The possibility of a one-year depression in the digital currencyUnfortunately, due to huge losses in bitcoin, it's likely that after looking for strong resistance, we expect a price hike for months, which will make the Bitcoin market and in general the digital currency continue to remain in this situation for one or two years.I predicted last year that most of the digital currencies, such as teron, xvg, lsk , ada ,... , would move to zero, at that time, most people, especially digital currency swindlers, attacked my previous page, but unfortunately my predictions were correct ...
BTC 4 Hour Channel I do not often draw trend lines but the current channel is being respected very well as the resistance lines up with daily EMA resistance.
We saw a bear trap last night with a break of support and instant bull move.
The price has quickly made it back to a recent 4 hour lower high of resistance, as well as 4 hour EMA resistance.
Bulls looking to form a 4 hour higher low this morning.
Resistances tests await, as the bulls try and defend the recent lows.
At this point I am a picky bull that would need to see convincing signs we can turn daily EMA resistance into support.
BTC Bulls Still Holding2nd video in 3 days where I have given a must hold level for the bulls that we were on the verge of breaking, but the bulls managed to hold.
We now have another 4 hour higher low, and a continued tightening range.
We will look for a clear break likely tomorrow, and the more upside the bulls can see here to give them space, the longer we can stay in the tightening channel.
We are seeing a tightening range being capped by EMA12 resistance on the daily, which continues to reject the price.
With shorts so high, a bull break here should see another few hundred dollars of upside over the top of the current bounce.
Bulls are potentially using the 4 hour higher lows as stops, bears are looking to enter on another 4 hour lower high, and patient traders are waiting for the tightening range to break before acting.
Bullish POWR Trade - 3 Possible Targets3 Reasons why i buying POWR for this 3 target trade.
*RSI has bottom out and its showing strenght of upwards trend on daily chart
*CCI also showing upwards momentum on the volume side from the buyers
*MACD is about to test cross on daily - still waiting confirmation
Lets see how it now plays out the next days.
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BTC 4 Hour Support Defense We are clearly seeing "Defense bots" where the price hits a certain level in the $3,500s and the market buy bots kick in.
This has happened 3 times now and the bounces are smaller every time.
We are fading back towards support and being driven down by 4 hour EMA 12 resistance.
Bulls have 0 momentum unless we get over these resistances.
The bears are on offense and the bulls are doing everything they can to prevent lower lows.
We will likely see a clear break within the next 24 hours.
Consensus: Invest (conference) starts today, and is something to keep an eye on as shorts remain confident.
BTC Bulls scouting 4H Higher LowHealthy low volume consolidation overnight as the bulls attempt a 4 hour higher low and continuation.
We will need to see the trend change back to the bulls on the hourly for us to be confident in a 4 hour higher low.
Potential it could be a slow day giving us a daily inside bar.
No red flags for bulls on the bounce yet at this point but bulls still need to be cautious as the bears are still in control of the 4 hour and daily charts at this point.
Still holding 60% of my entries spread out in the $3,000s and will exit if we set a clear 4 hour higher low, and then break that support.
Bulls need another leg up in order to see EMA 12 and 26 cross bull on the 4 hour for the first time since the bear cross in the $6,000s.
Bitcoin 80% drop and lots more to come!!SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY
Bitcoin is crashing and continues on doing the same !!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD is down by more then 80% this year!!. We are looking for another significant drop to the @3000 level, thats another 25% wow!
From my experience stay on the sidelines or short sell!!
Follow your Trading plan, remained disciplined and keep learning !!
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This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only!
Update idea
BTC 4 Hour EMA Resistance Brick WallBTC continues to see small bounces, leading to lower highs and rejections from 4 hour EMA resistances.
The bulls held the low of the dump last night, though some exchanges like Bitfinex did not.
The bears are extremely comfortable on the 4 hour time frame and have no reason to cover...
yet we have seen 3 days of shorts covering. This leads to the possibility of shorts piling back on for another leg down.
When the 4 hour trend changes we will zoom out and look for a daily lower high to be set.
Some alt coins broke bear first, giving insight into the more likely continued bearish action on BTC.
IF we see a $4k flush, there are lots of traders waiting for that to be the dip to buy.
BTC 4 Hour equilibrium What started as a potential 4 hour inverse head and shoulders has now formed an extra lower high and shaped up to be a clear equilibrium.
Low volume consolidation as the bulls are looking to set another higher low this morning.
This has resulted in multiple daily inside bars and tightening ranges as well.
We will look for a volume spike and a break today.
I personally entered a small, partial position on this consolidation in the $4,400s for the potential of a bull break as entering on an actual bull break would likely not result in a position with good risk/reward.
The stop loss is under $4,335 in case the 4 hour higher lows break.
Others took shorts at the 4 hour EMA resistance which is also a fine strategy as long as stops are used if the 4 hour lower highs break.
Bulls hoping for 4 hour Inverse H&SWith 4 hour EMA resistance looming, BTC bulls are looking for a 4 hour higher low and trend change to see the oversold bounce follow through on the daily.
4 hour Bull MACD crosses used to be a good signal earlier in the year for longer term oversold bounces to get some follow through.
If we change the trend on the 4 hour chart we will zoom out to the daily and look for a lower high to be set.
Patient bulls can look for an entry on the 4 hour higher low, with a stop under the low of the dump to remain protective.
Patient bears are waiting for a daily lower high before entry (or re-entry)
Great volatility in both directions these days with 5% moves common, and magnified in alt coins.
BTC Blood in the StreetsThe bear break of the weekly pattern has magnified into a significant crash the last few days as we free fall through zones with a lack of support. The bears have complete control and RSI levels are meaningless.
Bulls looking to buy need to wait for trend changes on the hourly which we have not seen in the last 2 days.
Remember... IT CAN ALWAYS GO LOWER. Burn that into your mind.
We currently have a tightening hourly chart as the bulls are currently trying to form a higher low. If we change the hourly trend we then zoom out to the 4 hour chart and look for a lower high.
There are currently no signs of any kind of V-shaped recovery as bull volume is missing on the bounces.
We will look for a short term daily bounce to play out once we find bottom, just remain protective and patient. There is no need to time the bottom on a dump like this, the % moves are significant enough to be worthwhile even if patient and protective.