BITCOIN Are you going to be able to handle this rally???Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating on the exact symmetrical spot it did relative to the previous Cycles. The blue circle marks that position historically and is that consolidation that always preceded the Bull Cycle's most aggressive part: the Parabolic Rally.
The Cycle bottom-to-bottom time range is fairly consistent to 1400 days and has been the bottom-to-top of the last two to 1064 days. Having broken above the cyclical Lower Highs (blue trend-line) on February, BTC historically posts only Higher Highs from here. The top can be anywhere within the $150k - $300k range for this Cycle, but as this chart shows, the important thing is to time it as closely as possible.
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to experience the start of the new Parabolic Rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencies
TRX - The Outlier - Time For A Mega Short?Ah, Tronix. Yes, it's actually called "Tronix", not "Tron." The coin with the disappearing wallet. No joke, I made a wallet back in early 2019 for TRX and stored the private key. I like to do things the old fashioned way, so I wrote it down and double-checked it by logging in. The second time Iogged in, I got the notification, "this wallet doesn't exist." Since then, I've been pretty wary of this project. I could go into all sorts of conspiracy theories about Justin Sun, CZ, Binance, stablecoins......but I'll leave that to your imagination.
This is a purely technical setup. TRX is one of the few coins that has maintained higher support levels during this bloodbath. What's up with that? As far as I understand, TRX is burned to help keep the Tron stablecoin USDD pegged to the dollar. USDT recently moved away from the Tron network. Anomalies like this don't usually last long in the crypto market. I'm speculating that this breaks down massively. There's already buzz that TRX will be the next LUNA, but before I say it's going to zero, let's just look at horizontal supports. If TRX cannot hold the 200 MA on the 3 day (teal), and if it cannot hold that orange uptrend, I think it can fall 50% pretty quickly, much like other alts during this period.
On the bullish side, TRX will need to break and hold above the 200 day MA (teal in the below chart)
The 200 week MA lingers just below, at the 4 cents level. Now, the question is - does TRX test the 50 week MA near 8 cents one more time before dumping? Let's find out.
This is not meant as financial advice. This post is highly speculative, and is meant for entertainment :)
-Victor Cobra
TRX - The Outlier, Part 2This is just a quick follow-up post to my short idea on Tronix from May. Here is the original post.
I ultimately got stopped out of the first trade and failed to catch the nearly 50% drop. Despite dropping below the uptrend, TRX rebounded much better than the rest of the crypto market, and remains one of the only coins still above its bull market support. It's been doing better than both Bitcoin and Ethereum for months. So, what's going on?
Without going into too much detail, the price of TRX is being inflated due to burning mechanisms and its algorithmic stablecoin USDD. Does it deserve its current valuation? Is Justin Sun truly a genius who has engineered the perfect, stable asset? My bet is that this is not the case.
I'm scaling into a short again - entries are marked at the green levels on the lefthand chart, which shows short-term price action. Short term targets are in red, while longer term short targets are shown on the righthand chart (3 day). It might take some time for this to break down, during which TRX can again get into the mid-7 cents zone. This is especially the case if markets are to rally for another 2-3 months. This is why my stop is fairly tight here, and I'm just trying to catch a wave down.
Let's see! Invalidation will be if TRX can break and hold above that triangle resistance on the 3 day chart.
This is not meant as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
Bitcoin Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading sessioon we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a selling opportunity around 62,800 zone, Bitcoin was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 62,800 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Litecoin is approaching a decent resistanceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring LTCUSDT for a selling opportunity around 73.00 zone, Litecoin is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 73.00 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
KASUSD Starting the rally to $0.4000Kaspa (KASUSD) has been trading within a Parabolic Growth Channel ever since its very first day, always supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The 1W RSI recently almost reached 45.00 and rebounded and this week the 1W MACD will most likely complete the new Bullish Cross.
As you can see on this chart, this is a bullish signal for KAS as it is a repetitive pattern within the Parabola. It should technically now enter the green curve rally phase which on the previous 3 occasions made a new High at the top of the Channel.
Our medium-term Target is $0.4000.
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BITCOIN Just flashed the strongest Buy Signal of the Bull Cycle!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) turned oversold on its 1D RSI on Monday and yesterday immediately rebounded back above the 30.00 RSI oversold barrier. The previous 3 times it did that exact same sequence since November 09 2022, it was an indication that the bottom was formed and a structured rise / Channel Up would follow.
Technically we can claim that this is the strongest/ most consistent Buy Signal of the whole Bull Cycle so far. Those 3 times turned out to be the most optimal long-term buy entries for investors that buy on dips.
The Gaussian Channel shows that at worst, we are looking at a bottom formation process/ consolidation of another 2 months (as BTC did from August 17 2023 to October 16 2023) but the upside on this Fibonacci Channel Up is significant, with a repeat of the lowest % rise these past 2 years (+91.05%) giving us a minimum Target of $110000.
Do you agree with that? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Ethereum is approaching a significant support areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring ETHUSDT for a buying opportunity around 3,100 zone, Ethereum is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 3,100 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
JASMYUSDT is approaching a significant Resistance areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring JASMYUSDT for a selling opportunity around 0.33 zone, JASMUSDT is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.33 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
XRPUSD Is it dead or ready to rise parabolically?The XRP (XRPUSD) has been closing below both its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) since the week of April 08. At the same time it is testing the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Triangle structure that started on the January 01 2018 All Time High (ATH).
In relative terms, it appears to be similar to the Triangle that started after the December 02 2013 High and broke-out to the upside on March 20 2017. Its 1W RSI is at 40.00, low enough historically to be considered a long-term buy opportunity.
Technically, the next time it breaks above the 1W MA200, it has higher probabilities of initiating the parabolic rise towards this Cycle's Top. If not, we're afraid that the XRP army will need a need narrative to hang on to, as the long-term pattern would have failed them.
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BTC at the bottom of week range!Bitcoin hit the bottom of the range ✅ Alarm was right pointing for range bottom at ~58k, as BTC dipped to 58414 on that move.
Now the main question - is it over? Shortly - if you are a respected TA, you can't say so yet. Why? Because week candle is only developing, so we won't have any clarity till next week close at least. Day candle shown nice bearish impulse with long tail, which can be taken as a first step of a bounce pattern, but to confirm it we'll need another 1-2 Day candle to close. Which brings us back to the idea, that this week it's all about guessing, but no mindful conclusions.
Week close above ~60622-59600 will increase chances for a bounce from range bottom. Close below will keep momentum to dip lower. That is the only thing we can say now for sure.
Nearest liquidity pools:
above - 61840 / 62440 / 63260 / 64920
below - 60235 / 59820 / 59460 / 58040
Lines on the chart:
🔸67577 - May close
🔸63195 - week open
🔸60651 - April close
🔸59112 - March low
🔸56537 - May low
🔸53245 - Nov'21 low
Trend: D 🔽 W 🔼 M 🔼
🤑 F&G: 30 < 51 < 53 < 63 < 64
Bitcoin is approaching a decent resistance areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring BTCUSDT for a selling opportunity around 65,000 zone, Bitcoin is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 65,000 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
DOGEUSDT Potential DownsidesHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring DOGEUSDT for a selling opportunity around 0.12600 zone, DOGEUSDT is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.12600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
PEPEUSDT is approaching the main trendHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring PEPEUSDT for a selling opportunity around 0.00001140 zone, PEPE is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.00001140 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BITCOIN Hit 60k! Is the bleeding finally over?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) followed the medium-term June bearish forecast and as we projected on the following 2 analyses (see charts below), made the expected correction on the Support Zone around 60k:
Now the market has entered into a medium-term buy opportunity again and once we get confirmation from the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it will be a long-term one too. The May 01 Low and ultimate Support level is at 56550.
As you can see the 4H MA50 (red trend-line) has been resisting throughout the majority of the Channel Down/ corrective wave but the Resistance and true bullish confirmation was last time given (May 15) when the price broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
As the top chart above shows, last year's accumulation phase (green) took another 2 months (August 17 - October 16 2023) to rise after the price broke below the 4D MA50, so we may see real movements at the end of the Summer when the price hits the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Bull Cycle's Channel Up.
In any event, BTC is on levels that long-term investors start consider buying again. Our standard medium-term Target is $72000. Note also that the 1D RSI is massively oversold at 25.50, last time it was this low was 10 months ago (on August 26 2023).
But what do you think about this price action? Is Bitcoin a solid buy now that it hit 60k again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Strong Bearish Momentum on CardanoHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring ADAUSDT for a selling opportunity around 0.3870 zone, Cardano is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.3870 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Ripples Breakout and Potential RetraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XRPUSD for a buying opportunity around 0.48050 zone, XRP was trading in a downtrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 0.48050 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Bitcoin is approaching a significant support areaHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring Bitcoin for a buying opportunity around 64,600 zone, Bitcoin is trading in an uptrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 64,600 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
BITCOIN SV : BSV NEW VOLUME IN TRENDOn the last low time frame, BTC sv seems to make a return, which has a good chance to break in the coming time frames.
Following the trend for more confirmations.
This time with BTC it's hard to find building coins, most coins follow BTC.
BSV can show some interesting targets.
$66 is an important target
SV is known for unexpected volume by ASIA markets.
BITCOIN Is it just a giant Cup and Handle that we couldn't see??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame resembles a giant Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern started from the top of the previous Bull Cycle. Even though this is a valid technical pattern, it may have gone ignored by some as traders tend to focus either on shorter term price action or cyclical structures that are often repeated from Cycle to Cycle.
It is undeniable though that the C&H principles are applied on this chart almost to the last little detail and the pattern is now in the process of completing its Handle, in the form of a Channel Down.
How low can it go before completed, largely depends (in our opinion) on which of the following MA periods will hold: the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) or the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line)?
The 1D MA200 provided the earliest Support of the current Bull Cycle on the week of March 06 2023, in fact it was an excellent 'touch-and-rebound' wick. The 1W MA50 has been supporting since the March 13 2023 break-out and came closer to the price action on the week of September 11 2023.
What seems even more useful/ reliable than the above, is the expected % rise after the bottom is made. As you can see, every since the November 2022 Bear Cycle bottom, Bitcoin has had 3 expansion legs, ranging from +91% to +99%. Starting from the first, each has been -4% to -5% less than the previous.
As a result, assuming the 1D MA200 holds and the Handle is completed there, we can expect the next Expansion Leg to reach the $100k - $110k Target Zone.
But what do you think? Which MA will hold, the 1D MA200 or 1W MA50? And what will your Target be after? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ENSUSD Major rally to $70.00 starting.Ethereum Name Service (ENSUSD) is on the 2nd straight green 1W candle, which is the 5th in the last 6 following the rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). The long-term pattern is a Cup and Handle and the latest 1W MA50 rebound is the handle completion. The symmetry is very strong so we expect a new rally to be initiated and target at least $70.000.
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BITCOIN Has the ride to $250k started?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been consolidating for the past 3 months (since the March High) but it is no stranger to such consolidation sequences. Since the start of the current Bull Cycle after the November 2022 bottom, consolidations have been the name of the game, as these served as accumulation phases in the absence of stronger corrections.
BTC has in fact seen similar consolidation phases historically during all previous Bull Cycles. Using the 1M RSI (black trend-line) in particular, we can see that the current consolidation, even though it happens on the All Time High (ATH) level, it is very similar to June - August 2020 and June - August 2016. During all those sequences, the 1M RSI peaked and pulled-back aggressively, even though the price was just trading sideways.
On an amazing display of symmetry, all this happened around 81 weeks (567 days) after the Bear Cycle bottom. The fact that the current consolidation is taking place on the ATH level and the two previous didn't, has to do with the fact that:
a) the last Bull Cycle was less aggressive, peaking at 'only' the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level but also because
b) the current Bull Cycle is more aggressive than expected due to the launch of the Bitcoin ETF.
As you can see the Fibonacci Channel Up has been very consistent since late 2013, with the 0.0 - 0.236 Fib range serving as the Buy Zone, which is where BTC continues to trade, despite the uptrend, showcasing its enormous upward potential.
The December 11 2017 Top has been on Fib 1.0, the April 2021 on Fib 0.786, so even a mere Fib 0.5 (not even 0.618) contact at the end of the current rally, would push Bitcoin to $250000. Incredible as it may sound, this validates even the scenario of BTC following the less aggressive, recent Channel Up (blue) that started on Dec 2017. A $250k top would make an ideal technical Higher High.
But what do you think? Is $250k as easy as this model shows for Bitcoin during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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