TONUSD Be ready for $12.00 this Summer.It has been almost 5 months (September 12, see chart below) since the last time we analyzed Toncoin (TONUSD) and made our bearish call:
As you can see, it successfully hit our 3.50 Target and the 0.618 Fibonacci level. With that being a direct contact with the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Up, while the 1D RSI got oversold (<30.00), we expect the new Bullish Leg to start.
All previous oversold RSI hits (with the exception of Aug 05 2024) have been bottoms and with +300% being a standard rise within this pattern, we expect to see $12.000 as the next High.
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Cryptocurrencies
HBARUSD Few consolidation days, then $0.65Hedera (HBARUSD) breached through its 1D MA100 (green trend-line) yesterday but recovered immediately as the 1D RSI almost turned oversold (<30.00). We expect a few more days of consolidation and buy accumulation, similar to the April 13 2024 consolidation on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), before the next Bullish Leg.
On the April fractal, the price rebounded to the 1.236 Fibonacci extension to make a peak on the Higher Highs trend-line. With the two fractals having also similar 1D RSI patterns, similar rebound would place our Target at 0.6500.
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DOGEUSD Giant Bull Flag or Channel Down rebound?Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) is trading within a 2-month Channel Down, which on the wider scale may be a Bull Flag for this Bull Cycle. Regardless of the time-frame, the price got sold aggressively today and hit its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since October 25 2024.
If that's just a 1D Channel Down, then today's Low is technically a bottom on the pattern's Lower Lows trend-line. The previous one (December 20 2024), rebounded towards almost the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
With an oversold (<30.00) 1D RSI for the first time since August 07 2024 making the buy opportunity even stronger, we expect the new Bullish Leg to target 0.3800 (just below the 0.786 Fib).
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BITCOIN Can a 1D MA100 rebound reverse the 'Tariffs narrative'?Just a week ago (January 27, see char below) we made a case of why it was essential for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) to test and rebound on its 1D MA100 (green trend-line), if the market was to find the necessary Support to move it forward through the rest of the year and the Bull Cycle:
Well BTC went on to confirm our expectation and hit the 1D MA100 for the first time in almost 4 months (since October 11 2024).
That analysis was focused on the current Bull Cycle (2023 - 2025) and the recurring 1D MA100 rebound sequence within the 2-year Channel Up, which has so far provide its Higher High both times.
Today's analysis examines if this is a pattern that emerged and held during the previous Bull Cycles as well. The results are eye opening.
During the last two years of each of the past 3 Bull Cycles, a 1D MA100 contact has most of the times (9) met with an incredible rebound, making it the most efficient buy entry on such basis. It was only 3 times this failed to initiate an immediate rebound (April 2024/ ETF led rally corrected, April 2021/ Musk led rally corrected, March 2020/ COVID flash crash), all valid reasons fundamentally.
Is this new all-out Trade War another one of those events? Not impossible, but this chart shows that it is 3 times more probable for this 1D MA100 contact to produce an aggressive rebound. If we narrow the sample to just the last year of the Bull Cycle, it was only once that a 1D MA100 failed to produce an instant rally.
As a result, it is now more probable to see a rally similar to the one that followed the January 2024 or October 2024 1D MA100 contacts, which were within a +85% / +90% range. Even the 1D RSI patterns among the Cycle fractals at the start of each final Bull year are similar.
So what do you think? Do you expect this technical 1D MA100 contact to reverse the dismal Tariffs sentiment? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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JASMYUSD testing the 1D MA50 for a break-out. $0.068 on sight.JasmyCoin (JASMYUSD) has been trading within a 15-month Channel Up and the price made this week a direct contact with its bottom. This is technically a Higher Low for the pattern and naturally it immediately reacted with a rebound.
The price is currently testing its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which happens to be at the top of the Bearish Leg (blue Channel) of the previous High. This is a Bull Flag pattern, which has always produced a rally eventually, with the lowest % rise being +194.50%.
With the 1D MACD just completing a Bullish Cross below the 0.0 mark, we expect Jasmy to break-out and go for at least another +194.50% rise from its bottom. Target 0.06800.
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106K Showdown: Can BTC Send?Bull
Breaking levels—momentum needs to keep rolling.
If this is the send, eyes on the usual markers.
106K is still the big bad bulls need to break.
Clear that, and we start looking for idealized moves.
Let’s see if they’ve got the juice.
Here is the ideal path if it can break above.
LTCUSD looking for a break-out to $255.Last time we looked at Litecoin (LTCUSD) was 3.5 months ago (October 10 2024, see chart below) when we gave the most timely buy signal, right before it started the strongest rally of its Bull Cycle yet:
Since however the break-out wasn't as aggressive as we initially expected, we have to downgrade our Target. The sequence in terms of 1W RSI is so far similar to the previous Cycles, it's just that the price hasn't responded as aggressively as then.
As you can see, LTC made the expected 1W RSI peak (December 02 2024) and then as the price started to consolidate, it declined, entering a Channel Down. This is no different that the previous RSI Cycle peaks (Dec 28 2020 and May 01 2017).
The difference is that in 2017 the price responded with a huger continuation rally just shy off the 4.0 Fibonacci extension from the consolidation stage, while in 2020 it 'only' managed to reach the 2.5 Fib.
The current pattern appears to have more in common with 2020/21, so we are downgrading our Target to match the current 2.5 Fib at $255.00. It is not impossible to reach $400 by the end of this Cycle (year) but it is best to pursue it only if you can accept elevated risk.
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Bull Flag breakout for SWFT!!!SWFT appears to be showing bullish strength over these recent months..
Sell offs get gobbled up....
The williams alligator is trending upward which is inherently bullish.
SWFT is consolidating into a bullish flag or bear flag.
The downward sloping resistance has been tested over half a dozen times, the base of the pattern coincides with the previous high...
Price target of 4c in the near term.
WIFUSD targeting $3.00 on this Channel Down bottom signal.Dogwifhat (WIFUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 1W time-frame, which on the greater scale looks like a giant Bull Flag. Regardless of that, the price almost hit the pattern's bottom (Lower Low trend-line) and with the 1W RSI stabilizing like on the August 05 2024 Low, we should now see that start of its technical Bullish Leg.
The previous Bullish Leg reached marginally above the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level, so our current Target is $3.000.
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BITCOIN Rebounded on a Double Support. Will it continue higher?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) experienced a sharp sell-off yesterday following the DeepSeek news but managed to recover more than 50% of the losses as it rebounded on the Double Support level.
The obvious level that catches your eye is the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) which was tested for the first time in 12 days. The second is the Pivot trend-line, which was formerly a Lower Highs trend-line initiating from the December 17 2024 All Time High (ATH).
At the same time, it almost touched the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of January's Channel Up. Technically that is similar with December's Channel Up, which also had a Pivot trend-line test that delivered a rebound and a Higher High to the December 17 ATH.
As a result, if the price breaks above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), we expect a Higher High (new ATH), on a minimum 112000 estimate. If the price gets rejected on the 4H MA50 however, we expect a Double Bottom test of the 98000 level (or slightly below), similar to those of December 23 and January 13.
The reason that both scenarios are plausible is the fact that they both got their 4H RSI oversold (<30.00) and then rebounded.
The above show that even in the event of a 96000 Low, BTC is a buy even on the current levels, as once again we are closer to the technical bottom than the Cycle's Top. The technical upside remains enormous in 2025.
So which scenario do you think will prevail? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin - 4H let's understand the where we are!Following the USA election, the crypto market experienced a significant rally, seemingly pricing in expectations around the Inauguration of Donald Trump. As the market has likely anticipated much of the impact from potential upcoming policies, we could see oscillations between sharp rises and falls in the coming days. A downward correction appears more probable as the immediate effects seem baked into current prices.
Technical Analysis: BINANCE:BTCUSDT broke out of a trading range, achieving its target with a ~9% rise, equivalent to the range's height.
The price hunted liquidity above the previous highs, which reinforces the possibility of a fall.
A decline from the current zone is likely, with key support zones highlighted on the chart.
📈 Watch for reaction near $102,600 and $100,100 zones.
💬 Like, follow, and comment for more timely market insights! 🚀
BITCOIN The beauty of the 1D MA100 coming to the rescue.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is pulling back quite aggressively today along with most of the market, as once again political in combination with China's manufacturing sector shrinking, are pitting a dent to buying sentiment.
Having touched its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again, we once again view these fundamentals/ news as means to justify the technicals. And BTC's chart on the 1D time-frame clear shows that there is a technical 'necessity'/ tendency to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) before more upside can be realized.
As you can see within its +2 year Channel Up, BTC goes through a mini (Megaphone) consolidation phase half-way through its Bullish Leg (we are currently on its 3rd such Leg) that hits its 1D MA100 before it can justify a rebound to the Channel's new Higher High.
During that test, the 1D RSI forms the exact same Channel Down that hits its 1st Support level at 36.00. The Sine Waves clear show that cyclically it is time for this test so we expect this pull-back to be extended to around 94000 - 93000. The bounce that will follow should test at least the top of the Channel Up at $150000.
But what do you think. Do you view the 1D MA100 as a 'fair' buy entry again? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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DOGE about to rally on Double Bottom Bullish Cross signalDogecoin (DOGEUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the December 20 2024 bottom. A very distinct buy signal emerges every time the price makes a Double Bottom near the Higher Lows trend-line of the pattern and the 4H MACD forms two Bullish Crosses in a row.
As you can see, this has already happened two times, with the price reaching at least the 2.618 Fibonacci extension for a Higher High and this is the 3rd time within the Channel Up that we see this indicator combo.
As a result, we turn bullish short-term, targeting 0.43250 (Fib 2.618 ext).
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BITCOIN We are nowhere near the Top!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1M time-frame is as straightforward as it can get. The message is clear: We are nowhere near the Top yet.
The LMACD flashes its Cycle Top signal when it tests the Lower Highs trend-line. If this happens to be above the Pi Cycle's Top (red trend-line), then we have a complete Sell Signal for the Cycle. This is expected to take place towards the end of this year.
Similarly, the bottom takes place below the Pi Cycle's Bottom (green trend-line) and is confirmed by a LMACD Bullish Cross. Those indicators are the Blueprint to BTC's Cycles.
Do you agree with this? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHEREUM trapped between MAs but preparing a massive surge.Ethereum (ETHUSD) has been trading since the start of the year within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). Despite this technical 'trap', there are two bullish patterns that outweigh this range and those are primarily the Channel Up since the July 18 2022 market bottom and in the last 10 months an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern.
The latter is in the process of forming the Right Shoulder and as long as the 1D MA200 holds, it should complete it within 6 weeks maximum. On top of that, we have a recently formed 1D Golden Cross and in terms of 1W RSI, we are on similar grounds as January 2024.
On all cases, a strong rally followed in the form of the Channel's Bullish Leg. Assuming it follows the technical target of the IH&S, we are expecting a peak on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $7400.
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DOGEUSD preparing a rally to $1.60Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) is trading on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as despite yesterday's attempted break-out, the pull-back brought the price down around this key trend-line again.
The key for buyers is now to turn this level into a Support and hold it, as this is what took place during the September - November 2024 rally. As you can see, once the price broke above the 1D MA50 and re-tested as Support, it sustained a 2-month rally, which reached the 3.0 Fibonacci extension from its bottom point (August 05 2024).
We can clearly see how similar the two fractals are, both started with a correction (red Rectangle) and then after the bottom, a Channel Down (also evident on their 1D RSI sequences) paved the way for the rally.
As a result, if DOGE tests the 1D MA50 again and holds it this time, we will have a confirmed buy signal to target $1.600 (Fibonacci 3.0 extension).
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$TIA: Ready to Breakout After 5 Months of Consolidation?
I think LSE:TIA is finally primed for a breakout after spending the last five months consolidating in the tight $4–$6 range. The lows have been respected multiple times, and we're now seeing the buildup of potential for a significant move.
I’m eyeing an entry at $4.85, which would be a perfect spot to load up if we get a retrace into that zone. If it does dip back there, it's a max bid scenario for me.
However, I'm also prepared to jump in a bit higher if needed, especially if I get left behind as the breakout gains momentum. It's a balancing act between waiting for the perfect entry and not missing out on the move entirely.
Let’s see how it plays out—I'm keeping a close watch!
BITCOIN The March effect is about to kick-inTrump's inauguration took place yesterday and that's perhaps the one event that the markets have been waiting for to kick-start the year without distractions. On today's analysis we go through every January of Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) final year of its Bull Cycles and present to you what we will call from now on 'The March effect'.
As you can see, the price action coming to those January months is fairly similar between that last 4 Cycles. The price finds Support below its 1D MA100 (green trend-line), then breaks above it and with that as its new Support, it rises towards January where it starts the first Consolidation Phase. After a new Low near (or on) the 1D MA100, the market resumes the uptrend and rise towards March where again it starts a second Consolidation Phase.
As a result, January - March during the Bull Cycle's final year deliver this incredibly bullish sequence and we can claim that the phenomenon has already started as January 13 2025 was a close enough test for the 1D MA100. We are expecting a March peak around $130k.
So do you think we will see the 'March effect' unfold once more and if yes is $130k a plausible target in your opinion? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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TRUMP reached $15B in market cap! Should this even be legal??OFFICIAL TRUMP (TRUMPUSDT) was launched officially on Friday by President Donald Trump, reaching a market capitalization peak of $15 billion.
It naturally falls into the category of memecoins and even though the token may very well keep rising with its technical corrections and rallies, the big question that is on everyone's mind is this:
SHOULD IT EVEN BE LEGAL?
This post isn't a political one, we wouldn't care any less if the token was named Bidencoin or Obamacoin. Our concern falls purely in the economic sphere and the financial consequences a price collapse may have on its (naive?) investors and the whole crypto market in general.
Obviously, having released only 20% of supply to the general public while the remaining 80% of tokens that have yet to be publicly released are owned by the Trump Organization affiliate CIC Digital LLC and Fight Fight Fight LLC (a company formed in Delaware on Jan. 7), is in principle a positive step and a small sign towards proper governance. But naturally the token’s website includes a disclaimer noting TRUMP is “not intended to be, or the subject of” an investment opportunity nor a security of any type, and is “not political and has nothing to do with” any political campaign, political office or government agency.
Again to avoid confusion, the token may very well extend the current rally, after all it has been on 3 enormous straight green candles, and even double in price and enter the top 10 of crypto with more than $30B cap.
But can you image the consequences to the whole market if some of that 20% of public supply or any of the 6 wallets that own more than $600 million each, makes a rug pull? Beyond the ethical aspect, should it be legal for the President of the United States to have such a large stake on this kind of venture? Does the idea of a 'free market' apply under the above conditions?
We are just raising our concerns and nothing more, as it took us, the whole crypto community, 25 years to get the market from a state of ridicule to a global force that is already reshaping the world as we know it. And it is our responsibility to question moves and call potential dangers if we see one. How will it reflect to crypto investors if the U.S. President's coin goes from no 15 in the market cap to bust? It took a lot of years and effort for the first BTC ETF to attract high profile capital to the market from investors that would otherwise never though of buying cryptocurrency if it weren't for Blackrock and others to back it up with an ETF. Will those people or even normal investors maintain their appetite if the U.S. President fails to safeguard even his own coin?
Lots of questions, tough answers. Feel free to tell us what you think about TRUMP's coin.
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USUALUSDT: What Price Action Is Telling Us Today - Usual◳◱ With Super Trend in play and the price at 0.5389, the market whispers opportunity. Breaking past 0.8931 | 1.196 | 1.6671 could spark a rally, while 0.422 | 0.2538 anchors bullish sentiment.
◰◲ General Information :
▣ Name: Usual
▣ Rank: 288
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Kucoin, Gateio, Mexc
▣ Category / Sector: N/A
▣ Overview: Usual project overview is currently unavailable. I'll try to update this in the upcoming analysis.
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Current Price: 0.5389 ₮
▣ 24H Volume: 92,622,307.521 ₮
▣ 24H Change: -3.145%
▣ Weekly Change: -13.97%%
▣ Monthly Change: -41.17%%
▣ Quarterly Change: N/A%
◲◰ Pivot Points :
▣ Resistance Level: 0.8931 | 1.196 | 1.6671
▣ Support Level: 0.422 | 0.2538
◱◳ Indicator Recommendations :
▣ Oscillators: BUY
▣ Moving Averages: STRONG_SELL
◰◲ Summary of Technical Indicators : SELL
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30 Days: 1.10
▣ Last 90 Days: 3.20
▣ Last Year: 3.20
▣ Last 3 Years: 3.20
◲◰ Volatility Analysis :
▣ Last 30 Days: 3.18
▣ Last 90 Days: 2.94
▣ Last Year: 2.94
▣ Last 3 Years: 2.94
◳◰ Market Sentiment :
▣ News Sentiment: N/A
▣ Twitter Sentiment: N/A
▣ Reddit Sentiment: N/A
▣ In-depth BINANCE:USUALUSDT analysis available at TradingView TA Page
▣ Your thoughts matter! What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights in the comments below. Your like, follow, and support are greatly valued and help sustain high-quality content.
◲ Disclaimer : Disclaimer
The content provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. Use of the information is solely at your own risk.
▣ Explore the Power of Charting with TradingView
Unlock a wide range of financial analysis tools, data, and features to elevate your trading experience. Take a tour and see the possibilities. If you decide to upgrade your plan, you can receive up to $30 back. Discover more here - affiliate link -
ETHEREUM The Parabolic Rally to $10k has started!Ethereum (ETHUSD) is having a strong recovery rebound this week after marginally breaking below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) earlier. This indicates enormous buying pressure on the Bull Cycles first core Support level (the second being the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) which supported twice last Aug/Sep).
In comparative terms, relative to ETH's previous Bull Cycle, we are around the October 2020 levels, which was the last consolidation before the Cycle's main Parabolic Rally started. This is also evident on the 1W RSI fractals among the two. The rally exceeded by a small margin the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and formed the Cycle Top.
As a result, we expect ETH to hit at least the $10k level before this Cycle tops towards the end of the year. Technically, we should see the 1W MA50 support until the end.
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BITCOIN The minimum target of this Cycle is $185kIf you follow us for long, you know that we are very fond of using Fibonacci levels on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Cycles in order to project future tops and bottoms. Today is one of those analyses, in fact it is a strong variation of the following Inverse Head and Shoulders call:
As you can see, that was based on the condition that BTC would make a first hit and rejection on the 0.786 Fib retracement and then (as it happened on the previous Cycle) would go for a Cycle Top on the 2.0 Fibonacci, which gives us a $165k Target.
Since the 0.786 Fib never really offered the rejection of the previous 3 Cycles, we are introducing a variation model with new parameters.
We take the Fib extension from the bottom of each Cycle to the moment it made contact with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). As you can see by applying these conditions, every Cycle since BTC's inception has hit at least the 5.0 Fibonacci extension, with all Cycles in fact making a perfect Top there with the exception of 2017, which even exceeded it.
As a result, we can claim that this Cycle will have a minimum peak at $185000.
How realistic do you think this is for the 'bad case scenario'? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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