Textbook bull trapThis is a well-known bull trap that whales use to earn money.
1st phase:
They pump price hard, a big candle appears and people FOMO in.
2nd phase:
They sell with benefits and people FUD, making price crash.
Down there, whales accumulate again before pumping price again.
3rd phase:
The 1st phase is repeated, they sell again up there with benefits and let it crash again so people sell everything and repeat in some days/weeks/months.
It's during the 3rd phase that some people don't sell thinking that it will keep pushing up but it doesn't, making them sell at a huge loss, crashing price even harder. This bull trap is the beginning of a big crash. Get ready.
*Not financial advice.
Cryptocurrencies
Flight to safe-haven, and price action growing erratic
In the previous idea about Bitcoin, we emphasized the need for quick action in regard to cutting a short position with a breakout above $28,000. By now, this should provide one’s cryptocurrency portfolio with protection from the volatile whipsaws and allow for a calm reassessment of the situation. Rising volatility and resumption of the weakness in the stock market caused the flight of capital to gold and Bitcoin in the past few days, though the fake news about the SEC approval of Bitcoin Spot ETF had a massive impact on Bitcoin’s price as well.
What’s really interesting about this whole sequence of events is that we highlighted a suspicious rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses with more than 100 BTC in the balance early on Monday. We also outlined similarities to previous situations in April 2023 and June 2023 when we saw very nearly identical activities among Bitcoin addresses (with medium-sized and large-sized addresses seemingly pushing the price aggressively higher in very short time intervals, and later, once the price reached a new high, unloading to retail). Only a few hours after publishing our article, fake news broke out, and we saw an abrupt jump in the price of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies.
Many people called the recent events a run to safe-haven assets (which we arguably can identify Bitcoin as well in certain situations; for example, like in March 2023, when the implosion of regional banks caused commercial deposit outflows and subsequent rise in the price of crypto). That would be yet another sign of Bitcoin slowly maturing as the asset class it was designed to be. However, as positive as that is, we want to remind our audience that this “run to safe-haven” behavior was also observable in gold at the end of 2021, after the market started to fall. But then, at some point, this safe-haven function turned into selling gold for profit to cover losses elsewhere. We think there is a high chance we will see the same thing if the stock market continues to sell off and severe panic sets in. As a result, we consider it proper to wait a bit longer before taking action.
Illustration 1.01
The picture above displays the daily chart of BTC.D (Bitcoin’s dominance).
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the safe-haven behavior of gold relative to the performance of SPX in late 2021 and 2022.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Bullish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN Overbought but it doesn't matter!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is rising strongly today, against the majority's sentiment which after the ETF fake news earlier, was calling for (much) lower prices. We are almost on Monday's High, with the 1D RSI overbought above the 70.00 territory, but that may not matter at all, in case you are expecting a technical correction.
Assuming the 1 year pattern is a Channel Up, the current rise is the technical bullish leg towards a new Higher High. It is supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and now by the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) as well. The previous bullish leg was also confirmed after breaking above the Lower Highs trend-line but didn't stop despite turning overbought on the 1D RSI. On the contrary it needed to form a Bearish Divergence of Lower Highs, before the first pull-back took place.
As a result, we don't expect a correction now, despite the overbought RSI but rather will wait for at least 3 Lower Highs, in order to take profit and wait for a 1D MA100 correction. That will be the buy with which we will target a symmetrical Higher High at 35500 on the 1.5 Fibonacci extension.
But what do you think? Does it matter that BTC is overbought or not and we will see much higher prices now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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STXUSD above the 1D MA200 after 3 months!Stacks (STXUSD) broke above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 20. Our target last time (see chart below) on September 19 was 0.65000, which is the 0.618 Fibonacci level:
The price is now on important crossroads. If the 1D candle closes above the 0.618, we will buy again and target the previous High at 0.89000. On the first closing below the 0.618 Fib though (or if it never closes above the 0.618 in the first place) we will sell and target the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) at 0.52500.
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BITCOIN 7 months of PAIN coming to an end??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke this week above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the weekly candle of May 02 2022. The weekly candle closing is of particular interest as the price has quickly pulled back so far below the 1W MA100 (cointelegraph's fake news tweet). If it closes above it, then we may finally see an end to BTC's painful 7-month consolidation that is loosely supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Along with the 1W MA100, we may also get a huge bullish signal from the 1W RSI, which broke above its Lower Highs trend-line (that is in effect throughout the whole consolidation), and if the week closes above it, will give the early buy. An emerging Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD, will come as the icing on the cake to confirm the bullish break-out.
But what do you think? Do you think this 7-month agony is about to end on this week's closing? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BICO/BTC - Biconomy: Failure_Swing◳◱ We've detected a Failure Swing pattern on the OMXSTO:BICO / CRYPTOCAP:BTC chart. This pattern is a bullish indication and could indicate a potential trend reversal. The next resistance key levels are at 0.00000815 | 0.0000085 | 0.00000921 and the major support zones are respectively at 0.00000744 | 0.00000708 | 0.00000637. It is a bullish indication and we may consider buying at the current price zone of 0.00000732 and targetting higher levels.
◰◲ General info :
▣ Name: Biconomy
▣ Rank: 207
▣ Exchanges: Binance, Hitbtc
▣ Category/Sector: N/A
▣ Overview: None
◰◲ Technical Metrics :
▣ Mrkt Price: 0.00000732 ₿
▣ 24HVol: 0.796 ₿
▣ 24H Chng: 2.954%
▣ 7-Days Chng: 0.84%
▣ 1-Month Chng: -0.52%
▣ 3-Months Chng: -10.07%
◲◰ Pivot Points - Levels :
◥ Resistance: 0.00000815 | 0.0000085 | 0.00000921
◢ Support: 0.00000744 | 0.00000708 | 0.00000637
◱◳ Indicators recommendation :
▣ Oscillators: NEUTRAL
▣ Moving Averages: SELL
◰◲ Technical Indicators Summary : SELL
◲◰ Sharpe Ratios :
▣ Last 30D: 0.55
▣ Last 90D: -0.24
▣ Last 1-Y: -0.32
▣ Last 3-Y: -0.54
◲◰ Volatility :
▣ Last 30D: 1.04
▣ Last 90D: 0.87
▣ Last 1-Y: 0.93
▣ Last 3-Y: 1.54
◳◰ Market Sentiment Index :
▣ News sentiment score is N/A
▣ Twitter sentiment score is N/A
▣ Reddit sentiment score is N/A
▣ In-depth BICOBTC technical analysis on Tradingview TA page
▣ What do you think of this analysis? Share your insights and let's discuss in the comments below. Your like, follow and support would be greatly appreciated!
◲ Disclaimer
Please note that the information and publications provided are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, investment, trading, or any other type of advice or recommendation. We encourage you to conduct your own research and consult with a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. The use of the information provided is solely at your own risk.
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BLURUSD: Strong bullish breakout over the Falling Wedge BLURUSD crossed today not just over the 1D MA50 for the first time since July 14th but more importantly the top of the Falling Wedge pattern that has never been broken in its history. This turned the 1D timeframe technically overbought (RSI = 70.700). Since however the 1D MACD is on a Bullish Cross under the 0 neutral level, which means that it was massively oversold for a long time and the 1D RSI itself is on a massive Bullish Divergence, we may not see a pullback just yet.
It is more likely to hit the 1D MA100. A candle close over it, will be the bullish entry to look for for the medium term. Target the R1 level (TP = 0.39500).
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BTCUSD: Another 6 months of sideways trading. Then...BTCUSD is on a bullish 1D technical outlook and more importantly yesterday's rise pushed the 1W timeframe into technical buy levels (RSI = 55.657, MACD = 575.600, ADX = 23.863). This is more than encouraging as it keeps Bitcoin in Bull Cycle territory, over the 1W MA50. What we should be using as a benchmark is the Halving event. Next one is estimated to be in April 2004, while those prior where on May 11th 2020, July 9th 2016 and November 28th 2012.
We are 24 weeks-168 days before the 2024 Halving. At the same time range before all past Halvings, Bitcoin has been on the 1W MA50 at least. This is why it is very uncouraging that we haven't crossed under it despite basically being sideways for 6 whole months. At the time of the past Halvings, the price was at best (historic max) -47.49% from the ATH at the time and at worst (historic low) -60.57%. This provides an estimated price range at the time of the next Halving between 37200 and 27500.
That means that most likely we have another 6 months of basically sideways action ahead of us until the April 2024 Halving. Then it should take almost as much time to reach the 69800 ATH.
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BITCOIN Just accept that we are NOT going any LOWER than this!Kind of catchy title but 100% true nonetheless, at least according to this chart. On today's analysis we see Bitcoin (BTCUSD) on the 1W time-frame, supported by the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Every time on these Cycles you see it broke above the previous Resistance (dashed line) and turned it into Support without breaking it, while the 1W MA50 was supported and a 1W MACD Bullish Cross took place above the 0.0 neutral mark, BTC never reached any prices lower than that and instead initiated a parabolic rally. We can see that when the Resistance-turned-Support broke due to the COVID crash, the 1W MA50 had also broken already (November 2019), while the 1W MACD Bullish Cross took place below 0.0. Thus not a sign of a parabolic rally.
These set of parameters show that indeed BTC won't be going lower than last months bottom any more. Do you think that will be the case and we can call September's low a bottom? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Activity among BTC adresses soarsBitcoin jumped by more than $500 within a minute during the early European morning. Currently, it trades around $27,800, and once again, we will pay close attention to the critical resistance level at $28,000. If Bitcoin breaks above the resistance, it will be slightly bullish; indeed, it will also coincide with tight management of the short position, cutting it if the price rises above $28,000 and reentering it if the price falls below $28,000. In addition to the $28,000 price tag, we will watch Stochastic, RSI, and MACD on the daily time frame. To bolster a bullish case, we would like to see all of them continue rising, and this rise to be accompanied by a pick-up in volume. Furthermore, we would want to see ADX start rising, reflecting a growing bullish trend (the current trend is neutral, yet the volatility seems to be increasing). To support a bearish case, we would want to see Bitcoin struggle to overtake $28,000 and then $28,500. Besides that, we would like to see the mentioned technicals (except for ADX) start reversing to the downside.
In regard to the Bitcoin addresses (using data from LookIntoBitcoin), we saw an interesting development over the past few days. Since last Friday, there has been a massive increase in the number of addresses with 100 BTC or more in the balance. But, we have not seen the same in the number of wallets with 1,000 BTC or more in the balance. That raises our suspicion because, in the first quarter, sudden spikes combined with the rise in the number of Bitcoin addresses preceded the price’s rise to new highs. But then, once Bitcoin reached new highs, these two groups of addresses began selling to retail.
As for our stance, we remain very skeptical about the prospects of significant upside (especially if the recession hits). However, the volatility is picking up across various market segments (not just in the crypto), which can cause wild whipsaws before the price finally decides to trend one way. With that in mind, we want to emphasize the need for quick action and the use of tight stop-loss orders.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the 1-minute chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates an abrupt spike in the price of Bitcoin during the early European morning; notice a similarity to the recent spikes we showed in the previous ideas (and also to spikes we showed in the first quarter of 2023).
Illustration 1.02
The image above shows the daily chart of MACD. If it breaks below the midpoint, it will be very bearish for Bitcoin. Interestingly, MACD can also be seen approaching the midpoint on the weekly chart.
Illustration 1.03
Illustration 1.03 portrays the daily chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates Bitcoin’s reentry into the upward-sloping channel. We will observe whether it will manage to stay within the channel; if it fails, it will be bearish.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Neutral
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN Have you forgotten what LOGARITHMIC is all about??In the early days Bitcoin (BTCUSD) charts were very often about its parabolic rallies not just on a large Cycle scale but also shorter term. That's because its been having a Logarithmic Growth since its inception.
Lately though it appears that most have forgotten all about this. Let's refresh our memory on that logarithmic truly means for Bitcoin. On this 1W chart, we display BTC's heavy benchmarks on the logarithmic (log) scale. $1 gave way to $10 (leg a) in 17 weeks (119 days), then it took 96 weeks (679 days) to reach the (psychologically critical for the time) $100 benchmark (leg b). $1000 (leg c) was reached in 34 weeks (238 days), while $10000 (leg d) took 209 weeks (1463 days) after that to get hit.
Pure logarithmic growth, nothing more nothing less. An interesting observation here is that $100-to-$1000 (leg c) took double the time of leg a (c = a*2). In same fashion, leg d ($1000-to-$10000) was also almost twice as leg b (d = b*2). Could it be that the next leg (e), i.e. $10000 to $100000 (which is seen by the market as the new psychological level/ benchmark in Bitcoin's evolution) would be twice as lengthy as leg d, i.e. e d*2? This is translated to a time range of 418 weeks (2926 days), which gives us a rough projection of December 08 2025.
Could that be the correct timing for hitting Bitcoin's Holy Grail target or is it too late? Do you think its always good to keep an eye on the basics of Bitcoin's logarithmic growth? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin DOOM updateIf you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better!
Followed one of my projections up, in an
#Elliottwave ZZ structure atm.
Some clarity pivots labeled here.
If correct, a W3 could be on its way.
17.5K is the MLT with the current pivots.
Cheers
Bitcoin could be done with a fakeout rally Yesterday, Bitcoin dropped below an important support at $26,800. Currently, it trades slightly above this level. As a result, we will pay attention to Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $26,800; if it fails, it will be negative. Besides that, we will also watch RSI, Stochastic, and MACD on a daily time frame, all of which started to flatten recently and now point to the downside; furthermore, MACD is approaching the midpoint. Overall, technicals are turning increasingly bearish again, suggesting that the recent rally might have been only a fakeout after all.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of MACD as it approaches the midpoint. If MACD breaks below zero, it will be strongly bearish for Bitcoin.
Illustration 1.02
The picture above shows the daily chart of Bitcoin and two simple moving averages. The yellow arrow indicates a bearish breakout from the upward-sloping channel.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
LOOMUSD On course to test the All Time High.LOOMUSD crossed over the High of the previous Cycle (0.2650) and got ridiculously overbought even on the 1W timeframe (RSI = 91.375, MACD = 0.029, ADX = 42.981). However this doesn't necessarily mean that it can't go higher and even more so by a significant margin. The 1W MA50 will inevitably cross over the 1W MA200 next week and will form the first ever Golden Cross on the 1W timeframe. That is an incredibly strong bullish signal on its own but coupled with the 1W MACD which shows us that we are potentially around February 8th 2021 in relation to the parabolic rally of the previous Cycle, we can realize that this rally still has fuel in it. We are still long, targeting near the ATH level (TP = 0.7000).
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BITCOIN Haven't we seen this before??Bitcoin (BTCUSD) tends to repeat its historic patterns. Not always in the exact same way but some principles remain. Since March 2023 we see a consolidation/ accumulation pattern which in our opinion draws comparisons with April - June 2020.
A Falling Wedge gave way to an aggressive break-out that formed an arc top, which then declined again below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). At the moment we are in the phase where the price is again above the 1D MA50. As you can see the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) has been supporting this whole time, since it formed a Bullish Cross with the 1D MA50. The RSI patterns between the two fractals are also similar.
We are well aware that 2020 was a Halving year while 2023 is not, but at least on a micro level, do you think that if the 1D MA50 holds, it will give way to some type of short-term rise? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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RUNEUSD Megaphone rebound aiming higher.THORChain (RUNEUSD) is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) as short-term Resistance after a clear-cut bounce at the bottom of the Megaphone pattern and just above the 1W MA50 (red trend-line). This mobilizes the 1W MA levels to come into focus and justifies a short-term (at least) buy towards 2.5000 (top of Megaphone and expected contact with the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line)).
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GALAUSD Short-term buy signal on a Bullish DivergenceGala (GALAUSD) is trading within a Channel Down pattern since early January and recently got rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Despite the declining trend, the 1D RSI is on Higher Lows, i.e. a strong Bullish Divergence.
The Lower Highs trend-line has been broken, and the previous two times it did so within the Channel Down after a bearish leg, a counter-rebound took place. As a result we consider this a buy signal towards the top of the Channel Down. We don't wish to exceed the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), thus our target will be contained at 0.0170.
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Bitcoin's dominance continues to march higherBitcoin has been primarily choppy since our previous article. As a result, not much has changed in our stance, and we continue to pay close attention to the resistance at $28,000. A failure of the price to retake this level and hold above it will be bearish. Contrarily, a breakout above $28,000 will raise our suspicion. Besides that, there is one more thing we want to point out: the growing number of Bitcoin addresses with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC (which is bullish; however, the growth has not been too immense so far). We will update thoughts on the asset with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD, which is in the bullish area. However, if the price continues to trend sideways for a while longer, we will likely see MACD flattening.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 displays the daily chart of Bitcoin dominance, which has been growing in line with our recent prediction.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
RNDRUSD: Small but steady rise. Expect more aggression soon.Render Token has been steadily rising since the August 28th contact on the HL trendline but more importantly the 1W MA50, which held for the second time since the week of March 6th 2023. The 1W technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 53.781, MACD = 0.060, ADX = 33.069) meaning that there is significant upside potential. The Bullish Cross that is about to be formed on the 1W MACD also reveals that this is only the start of a long term leg. We are aiming at the R2 level (TP = 4.25000).
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BITCOIN Yuan & China bonds tell you everything you need to know!This is not the first time we emphasize the strong correlation of Bitcoin (BTCUSD) with Yuan (USDCNY) and the Chinese Bond Yields (CN02Y and CN20Y). We made an analysis right in the aftermath of the FTX crash, indicating why those indicators have all aligned, paving the way for BTC's new Bull Cycle. As you see that happened and this time we incorporate two mixed elements, the USDCNY/CNY20Y (red trend-line) and the CN02Y/CN20Y (blue trend-line).
** The CN02Y/CN20Y ratio **
Every time the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio's Lower Highs broke in the past, Bitcoin started the second phase of the Bull Cycle. Typically this was achieved while BTC was within a Channel Up (green). Right now the CN02Y/CN20Y ratio is testing its Lower Highs trend-line.
** The USDCNY/CN20Y ratio **
The CN02Y/CN20Y break-out has historically taken place a little after the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio peaked and started to decline. Not unexpected based on hard economics as a cheaper currency favors capital flowing to risky assets (such as Bitcoin). Right now the USDCNY/CN20Y ratio has started to decline but not emphatically yet, even though the 2023 rally is very similar to the ratio's peak rallies of January - March 2020 and June - October 2016.
** The harmony of the Sine Waves **
It is very interesting to point out the high degree of symmetry between those CN02Y/CN20Y break-outs and USDCNY/CN20Y rejections. We have applied the Sine Waves tool on them and the trend turns out so harmonic, almost like a Cycle itself. This shows that at the bottom of the Sine Waves, it has never been a bad idea to buy historically.
This mix is incredibly bullish for Bitcoin technically and it prompts to a new parabolic rally as we get closer to the next Halving, the likes of which we may have not seen in the past. But what do you think? Is this pattern good enough for you to buy when the ratio's Lower Highs break-out takes place? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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XTZUSD Extinct crypto starting to move?Tezos (XTZUSD), a long forgotten market favorite, is posting today the strongest 1D green candle since February 22 2023. This is backed up by a long 1D RSI Bullish Divergence. As long as the 0.6300 Support holds, we expect XTZ to target first the Lower Highs 2 (dashed) trend-line and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and finally the strongest long-term Resistance Cluster, the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) along with the 0.92500 Resistance.
Our target is 0.9000. Notice the similarities between the current mid-2023 Triangle, with that a year ago in 2022. That broke the Support to the downside and extended to the 2.0 Fibonacci level, while the current is breaking above the Triangle. Keep that in mind however, in case the 0.63000 Support breaks.
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BITCOIN The Gaussian giving one of the rarest buys you can get.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has been trading within the (now green) Gaussian Channel since the mid-August decline. It is no surprise that it held that low and trade basically sideways as once the Gaussian turns green historically, it has signaled the phase of the bull market before the Halving. It shouldn't turn red again before the new Bear Cycle.
Last time BTC dipped inside a green Gaussian Channel after breaking into while red, was in October 2019. December - January 2020 followed with a strong rise before the non-technical and outside of any model's reach Black Swan event of COVID (which is an irregularity and doesn't count on our models).
As a result, such Gaussian green dip and trade is a rare buy opportunity during a Bull Cycle while prices are still relatively low. For reference, such an opportunity didn't emerge in the 2016 - 2017 Bull Cycle. Perhaps a 1W RSI at 40.00 would be the most ideal buy entry (lowest risk/ highest return).
But what do you think? Is this Gaussian pattern good enough for you to buy? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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