LQTYUSD Some more fuel left to burn on this rise.Liquity (LQTYUSD) broke yesterday above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since July 14. That is the 2nd major bullish break-out signal since the breaking over the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line on October 01. The presence of the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level now shouldn't stop this rally, but Resistance 1 (1.8200) could. As a result we are only willing to take the risk until 1.8000, as the 1D RSI is vastly overbought (85.00). After that, look for the best buy opportunity on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) again.
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Cryptocurrencies
ETHBTC Channel Down but how long before it takes off?The ETHBTC pair is trading within a Channel Down pattern on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) its key Resistance basically since the March 2023 sell-off. What's new though is that after this week's bearishness, it is approaching the 1W MA200 fast.
This coincides with the ETH's previous Bear Cycle bottom. That could be the test level before the price rebounds and really takes off breaking finally above that Channel Down. The current trend is bearish but you wouldn't want to bet on it too long.
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BITCOIN May not face again a Resistance Zone as strong as this!!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is consolidating within the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the last 10 days. This neutrality, this sideways price action may be directly attributed to the presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since the top of the previous Bull Cycle.
But it's not only that double hurdle level that BTC needs to overcome. Directly above it, we have the 31800 Resistance (July 13 2023 High), which is also the Mega Pivot Zone between the two Cycles, as it started as a Support Zone (closing all 1W candles from May - July 2021 above it with emphasis) and since May 2022 has been the Resistance to beat.
It becomes obvious that this is a quadruple Resistance level and quite frankly the strongest obstacle BTC has faced thus far during the 2023 recovery phase and quite possibly a Resistance Cluster the likes of which may not face again during this new Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Is this the most critical Resistance Zone for Bitcoin and if so, will it break now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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TUSD: Strong breakout confirmed. Rally just beginning.Threshold crossed over the LH trendline of 2023, turning bullish on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 67.372, MACD = 0.000, ADX = -21.212). This is a confirmation that a new rally has started, as it also closed over the 1D MA50. This has been done before on June 23rd but there was no RSI Bullish Divergence as it built up now.
Consequently, the short term target is the 1D MA200 (TP1 = 0.0240) and after a pullback rebuy and target the R1 level (TP2 = 0.02955). After that, the upper Fibonacci levels will play the Resistance part.
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LOOMUSD A rise the likes of which we've never seen.Loom Network (LOOMUSD) is on the 5th straight green 1W candle, with the last 3 weeks in particular being the strongest bullish sequence LOOM has seen since its historic All Time High on the week of April 30 2018!
Last week it closed the first 1W candle above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs Resistance and the 1W LMACD sequences resembles the last strong rally of 2020 - early 2021. Based on that we should be currently on leg (c), which can extend all the way to the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, despite the presence of Resistance 1 (0.26900). Our target is 0.60000.
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BITCOIN Cycle mapping like you've never seen it before!On today's Bitcoin (BTCUSD) study, we plot the historic Cycles on top one another, classifying them into different phases. This is an alternative but very useful way at looking in BTC's historic cyclical action as it offers a sound perspective regarding our current place on the Cyclical Scale.
As you can see, the 2011 - 2013 Cycle is displayed in blue, the 2014 - 2017 Cycle in orange, the 2018 - 2021 Cycle in black and the current one 2022 onwards in red. The phases are: Bear (red), Accumulation (orange), 1st Rally (blue) and 2nd Rally (green). The three most recent Cycles are plotted as they are in terms of duration but the 2011 - 2013 one is stretched in order to fit the phase classifications and relate to the more recent Cycles.
As a result, its Halving (1) is also moved to its respective spot. It is no coincidence then that all Halvings (1 through 4) fall close to each other on what we call "the Halving Belt". Now this Cycle display gives a sound sense of Bitcoin's Cyclical perspective in relative terms (for Cycle 1). The "we are here" vertical line reveals the respective place relative to the past Cycles. As you see, it is about to end the Accumulation Phase and as it approaches Halving 4, start the 1st Rally Phase of the Bull Cycle.
So what do you think? Does this chart give a fair sense of where we are now? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: The key to aggressive expansion.BTCUSD is neutral both on the 1W (RSI = 53.284, MACD = 507.200, ADX = 28.424)) and 1M (RSI = 49.845, MACD = 467.000, ADX = 18.857) timeframes, an encouraging outlook as it is recovering ground from the 2022 Bear Cycle. This is a chart illustrates quite accurately the Cycles of Bitcoin, transitioning from Bear to Bull and vice versa. Right now we are in the retest phase of the Bear Cycle's Support that broke in order to create the bottom. Every Cycle did that retest and in all cases it was performed on the green part (buy level) of the accumulation that preceded the Aggressive Expansion phase. If the top dashed line breaks, the Aggressive Expansion starts.
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MINAUSD: Two targets after the LH breakout.MINAUSD crossed over the LH trendline that was keeping it inside the Bear Cycle and broke yesterday through the 1D MA50 aggressively. The 1D MA100 (which rejected the price on August 15th) is the next target (TP1 = 0.41500). After that we will wait for the first 4H MA50 pullback to buy and target the R1 level and 1D MA200 in extension (TP2 = 0.49350).
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ALT SEASON underway and this Support shows you WHY!Looking at this chart, it becomes more obvious how the alt coin market, which broke this Summer above the Bear Cycle's Falling Wedge, is preparing for a big move upwards. The 494.45 level has been tested 4 times and emphatically held on all as it provided rebounds that left large 1W candle wicks behind.
The latest was on September 11 but stopped last week on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). A 1W candle close above it opens the way for a Lower Highs test, similar to January 09 2023, which when it broke it started the 2nd part of the rally.
There is only one long-term Resistance left from the Bear Cycle and that is the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) that is intact since May 09 2022. This what the markets target should be, we estimate a potential contact at 650B, by the end of the year.
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Bitcoin - BTC comparing Alligator cross-over 1.🔴 2.⚪️ 3.🔵 4.🟢Comparing Alligator cross-over...
1.🔴
2.⚪️
3.🔵
4.🟢...
...dear BTC and Crypto Nation👀
Will call out loud for you when next 3.🔵 occurs🚨🚨
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
⬇️⬇️⬇️
Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
AAVEUSD Strong rise but still not bullish long-term.Aave (AAVEUSD) is having a strong bullish sequence since the September 11 Low on Support Zone 1. Both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) are Supports now. However, it remains inside the 1.5 year long Triangle pattern and is approaching its top (Lower Highs trend-line). This suggests that the most optimal sell entry is approaching.
The previous Lower High was priced right when the price hit the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. The one before a little below the 0.786 Fib. Now we are approaching the 0.5 Fib so the zone between that and the Lower Highs, is the most optimal sell entry. The 1D RSI is actually printing the peak pattern of that July Lower High.
Sell and hold as long as 1D closes candles under the Lower Highs trend-line and target the 1D MA50 at 64.000. If a 1D candle closes above the 0.618 Fibonacci, buy and target 95.000 (a little below the 0.786 Fib and potential contact spot with the 1W MA100 (red trend-line) which is the long-term Cyclical Resistance).
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BITCOIN Made a MACD Bullish Cross that opens the road to $40k!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has completed a Bullish Cross on the 3D time-frame and that helped the price last week to start the short term rise that broke above the 3D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since mid August. The previous 3 MACD Bullish Crosses have all delivered a Higher High within the 11 month Channel Up.
What's also interesting is how firmly the MA100 (green trend-line) held on the September 10 Low. Technically once BTC reclaims the MA50 (i.e. closes a full candle above it), the new bullish wave of the Channel Up will be confirmed. We expect it to test Resistance 2 at 40000, a critical psychological level.
Do you think this MACD Bullish Cross was what BTC needed to kickstart the new rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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TWTUSD: The 1D MA100 may be what's needed for a 1.6500 rally.TWTUSD has crossed today over both the 1D MA50 and MA100 with force turning overbought technically on the 1D timeframe (RSI = 72.444, MACD = 0.001, ADX = 22.204). It hasn't closed a candle over the 1D MA100 since January 29th 2023, so today's closing may be vital for the long term. Even though the 1D MA200 looms just under the R1 level (0.9885), we believe that closing above the 1D MA100, will be the most crucial step towards a four month uptrend targeting the 0.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 1.65000). If it fails to close above the R1 level, we will take a short term sell, aiming at the 1D MA50 (TP = 0.8350).
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AVAXUSD Ready for a bullish break-outAvalanche (AVAXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern for the past 6 months and is testing today the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The same kind of test after a 1D RSI Bullish Divergence was performed in AVAX's previous Channel Down on January 09 2023. Observe the perfect symmetry on the RSI levels of the two dates. When the price closed above the 1D MA50, it initiated a massive rise on the next candle that easily broke through the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), hit the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and peaked a little above the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, we will buy the break-out and initially target the 1D MA100 at 11.000. If it breaks above the 1D MA200, we will buy that 2nd break-out and target the 0.616 Fib at 15.500.
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GALAUSD: Next 1D MA50 break can deliver a massive rally.GALAUSD is testing today the 1D MA50 for the first time in two months on a green technical 1D outlook (RSI = 60.296, MACD = -0.001, ADX = 46.201). Being through all 2023 inside a Channel Down similar to 2022, we can argue that the next 1D MA50 cross over (like the 1W RSI cross over the MA line) can provide a rally similar to January's. That will be our trigger level and will target the 0.786 Fibonacci level (TP = 0.04400).
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BITCOIN Alt season started and going all the way to the Halving!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) may have found Support on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and rebounded but for basically the last 6 months it has been trading sideways/ consolidating. On the other hand, this hasn't stopped the altcoin market (orange trend-line depicting dominance) from breaking above its Bear Cycle's Lower Highs trend-line 6 weeks ago. Historically, when alts broke above that distinct Lower Highs trend-line in previous Cycles, BTC has always been above the 1W MA50 and (with the exception of the COVID crash) never lost it.
We have approximately 154 days/ 22 weeks until the next Halving (no 4) and on the same time range in the past 2 Cycles, the alt season had alreay started. Typically this extends to at least the Halving event. On Halving 2 it saw a huge price spike while during Halving 3 it had a steady rise that continued even after the event. We can therefore draw the conclusion that the alt season has just started and has at least another 5 months of growth ahead of it (until Halving 4). At the same time, BTC should stay supported by the 1W MA50.
So what do you think? Have we broken aggressively into a long alt season? If so, are you going light on Bitcoin and heavy on alts? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BSVUSD: This move has potential but don't get excited yet.BSVUSD reached the 1W MA50 as it started the week on a strong bullish note, turning overbought on the 1D technical outlook (RSI = 81.503, MACD = 0.780, ADX = 33.231). We may not see the usual technical relief pullback that follows after overbought conditions as the 1W MACD just formed a Bullish Cross and remains under the 0.000 neutral level. This suggests that in case of a breakout, the upside potential is big. Target the R1 level (TP = 56.450), which is the strongest Resistance currently as it is where the 1W MA100 is headed to.
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Bitcoin's market share is set to increaseIn the previous article on Bitcoin, we discussed the possibility of another fake breakout above the resistance at $26,800. We stated that we expected the rally to be bought by retail, which seems to be confirmed by the latest data from LookIntoBitcoin, showing the number of small Bitcoin addresses (with balances below 100 BTC) increasing and the number of large addresses (with balances exceeding 1,000 BTC) falling (in the past few days). To keep the bearish thesis alive (about BTCUSD dropping to $24,000), we want to see Bitcoin fail in breaking above the resistance near $27,500. In addition, we want to see RSI, Stochastic, and MACD start flattening on the daily time frame and eventually start pointing to the downside. Furthermore, we want to see the number of large Bitcoin addresses trending flat or down, suggesting whales are still not buying (at least outside the futures market).
To reevaluate our view, we want to see Bitcoin march higher, breaking above $27,500 and then $28,142 (accompanied by the growth in the number of large Bitcoin addresses). On top of that, we want to see all mentioned technical indicators continue rising on the daily time frame, with MACD fully breaking above zero (and holding ground above this level).
Now, to move on to a different topic, what caught our attention in the past few days is that the recent jump in the price of Bitcoin was once again accompanied by news about Bitcoin Spot ETF (in reference to Gary Gensler’s testimony in front of U.S. Congress) and the government shutdown in the USA. Interestingly, a similar uptick occurred among many altcoins (while Bitcoin’s dominance decreased and USD strengthened). In fact, we would say that the USD has been behaving unusually strongly recently, similar to how it behaved during last year’s stock and cryptocurrency market selloff. That is raising our suspicion, and we think that we might be seeing merely a deceitful move higher (in altcoins), intended to suck in retail and create exit liquidity for big players who seek to cash out altcoins into Bitcoin and Bitcoin into fiat money. As a result, we are on high alert.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 shows the daily chart of MACD. The yellow arrow highlights MACD’s attempt to enter a bullish area above the midpoint; if successful, it will be slightly bullish in the short term.
Technical analysis gauge
Daily time frame = Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Bearish
*The gauge does not necessarily indicate where the market will head. Instead, it reflects the constellation of RSI, MACD, Stochastic, DM+-, ADX, and moving averages.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
XRP is not out of the woodsAbout two weeks ago, we warned XRP would likely test its support near $0.43. However, this has not been the case so far, and XRP moved from around $0.48 to $0.52. Despite this upward movement, we believe the retest is still due to happen. In fact, we would not be surprised to see XRP continue lower than that, being dragged by the rest of the cryptocurrency market. To reassess our view (or even abandon it), we want XRP to break above $0.54 and broader strength in the crypto market. We will update our thoughts with the emergence of new developments.
Illustration 1.01
Illustration 1.01 displays the daily chart of XRP and simple support/resistance levels derived from peaks and troughs.
Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Slightly bearish
Weekly time frame = Slightly bearish
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
BITCOIN Cycle unlocked with Angle Theory! Can we reach 140-150k?Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is having a strong break-out day on the 1D time-frames and below but this is only on the short-term. Still it is a step in the right direction on the long-term after trading sideways in the last 6 months within the 1W MA50 (Support) and 1W MA100 (Resistance).
** Cycle Peaks and angles **
Today's study brings you the a multi-cycle depiction on the 1W time-frame of BTC since the peak of its very first Cycle at $32. Those that followed ($1250, $19800, $69800) all made contact with the Logarithmic top Growth Curve, a historic pattern that is holding since BTC's inception.
It appears that every peak-to-peak measurement is roughly half of the previous peak. The automatic angle measurements on the (red) dotted lines may differ based on the screen's display and how the horizontal/ vertical axis move but on ours (and the screenshot of the idea) goes like this: 38°, 19°, 10°. We estimate a 6° angle for the new Cycle peak on the log Growth Curve.
** Next Cycle peak? **
If we take all previous Cycles and apply them to fit the new price action towards the top of the Log Growth Curve, that 6° line gives a projected Cycle peak within $140000 - 150000. It is also interesting to apply the same angle principle to the Cycle bottoms. We can see that those (green dotted lines) can also roughly be half of what the previous bottom was (though the variations are higher). The new bottom is estimated to be on a 7° angle.
Remarkably the angles of the tops and bottoms of each Cycle have approximately the same measurements, indicating that despite being logarithmic within a curve, they can be viewed separately in Channels.
So what do you think? Can Bitcoin reach $140-150k during this Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSD: The Huge Pivot Zone will decide its fate.Bitcoin has completed seven weeks of trading inside the 1W MA200 - 1W MA50 range. It is no surprise that the 1W technical outlook is neutral (RSI = 50.743, MACD = 460.600, ADX = 25.554) as while the 1W MA50 has been supporting, the 1W MA100 has been resisting. The latter hasn't closed a 1W candle over it since April 25th and is at the moment the top priority to break for Bitcoin.
On a greater scale though, the true Resistance to cross is 31,800 which is the top of what we call the "Huge Pivot Zone" (25,400 is the Support). The price hasn't closed any 1W candle outside of this Zone since it entered it on the week of March 13th 2023. In fact we can go as back as January 2021 and see the importance of this Pivot Zone. In 2022 there hasn't been any 1W candle closing under the top (31,800) of the Pivot Zone. Then in 2022 up until March 2023 this became a rejection level, closing all candles under it, while the Cycle bottom was being formed.
With the Bull Cycle HL trendline still supporting (along with the 1W MA50) and the price approaching the 1W MA100, we will soon have a strong breakout signal at hand. But if this is accompanied by a break over 31,800 then we have great chances of going into the April 2024 Halving with prices above $40,000. Likewise a crossing under the HL and the 25,400 Support can break the Bull Cycle blueprint and take us into uncharted (bearish) territory.
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BTC TA and Altcoin Trades Update
Traders,Bitcoin is now once again slightly bullishly biased. It has now absorbed the 26,300-26,500 price sufficiently and more accumulation has occurred. Additionally, we can observe a break to the upside of a descending TL and retest. Finally, the RSI is showing bullish divergence.However, with the threat of a gov’t shutdown looming, all bets are off when it comes to TA and anything can happen. To help mitigate potential future loss, I have moved all my stops up to break even in all of my altcoin trades which are all showing profit. Compound has been the big winner here for me.
One of my followers has noted that a government shutdown netted a 20% loss on Bitcoin in the past. I have not confirmed this yet as I have been traveling all week and have had little time to chart but I will note that if this is true and history repeats itself, then a gov’t shutdown would take us to that long-anticipated CME futures gap to be filled at 20k. I think this is something we should note and pay attention to. Should any of our major supports break, especially 25,200, then we’ll almost certainly drop to 20k again.
Best,
Stew
ETHEREUM Potential DownsidesHey Traders. in today's trading session we are monitoring ETHUSDT for a selling opportunity around 1730 zone, ETHEREUM is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 1730 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.