RUNE - It Can't Get Any Better!Testing a Macro support for the first time after almost a year (October 23')
Enough htf confluence to take the trade.
Long here all the way down to $2.7
Cryptocurrencies
BTCUSD UPDATE, October 7th 2024BTCUSD is now retracing to it's 61.8% fibo from it's first drop.
We wait for confirmation if the 61.8% will hold and the minor bear flag pattern will break.
I am still aiming 50k to 52k for next target!
CHEERS!
WIFUSD is breaking above its 6-month Channel Down and targets 75Dogwifhat (WIFUSD) closed last week above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time since the week of July 22 and hit the top of its 6-month Channel Down. On the long-term cyclical outlook, this Channel Down can technically turn out to be nothing but a Bull Flag in the continuation scale of the Bull Cycle.
If this week's 1W candle manages to close above the Channel Down/ Bull Flag, we expect at least another +6842% rise, similar to its first one, and target $75.000.
The 1W RSI and MACD both support this bullish scenario as the first already broke above its MA line on September 16, while the 1W MACD just completed a Bullish Cross, its first ever.
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Bitcoin(BTC/USD) Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Oct 4, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook:
The "Interim Squeeze" of Bitcoin has witnessed a significant decline to our Mean Support levels at 64400 and 63100, as well as the newly established 60200. On the upside, the cryptocurrency is approaching the critical Mean Resistance level of 64000. A breach of this pivotal level will trigger the movement to the Inner Coin Rally 67000 target, accompanied by further upward momentum, with the primary objective being the subsequent Inner Coin Rally identified at 69300. Nevertheless, the prevailing market interim bearish sentiment anticipates a drop to the Mean Support level at 58000, with the potential for an extension to the Inner Coin Dip 55500 before initiating the primary recovery and progressing into the subsequent phase of the bullish movement.
BTCUSD: Holding the MA50 (1w) and parabolic rally starting.Bitcoin tested and held the MA50 (1w) twice in the past 2 months.
Based on the last 2 Cycles and in particular October 2020 and 2016, such a rebound on the MA50 (1w) initiates the parabolic rally of the Cycle.
Trading Plan:
1. Buy on the current market price and hold until maximum August 2025.
Targets:
1. 100000 (minimum psychological target for those who don't want much risk on their holdings).
2. 230000 (maximum extension based on the notion that the price will rise approximately the same degree (+368%) as it did from the 2022 bottom to the March 2023 High).
Tips:
1. It is important to keep in mind that the Bull Cycle is far from over. It tends to peak towards the end of each year on a 4 year Cycle. First December 2017, then November 2021. This is why it is recommended to be out of the market by August 2025.
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Notes:
Past trading plan:
BITCOIN Cup and Handle on full motion looking for the break-out.Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) full Cycle since the November 2021 High can be illustrated as nothing more than a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern with the Channel Down since March 2024 being the Handle of the formation.
Simple yet a technical reality, the Handle found support both in early August and September on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), keeping the bullish trend valid. In fact, the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and the 1W MA50 have been the bottom formation zone during its previous 6-month consolidation in August - September 2023.
All Bullish Legs since the November 2022 bottom have been within +90% and +100%. Even if the minimum (+91.68%) of the last rally is followed, we can expect Bitcoin to reach at least $94000 during that run by the end of the year.
But what do you think? Will this Cycle-long Cup and Handle serve its purpose and break-out aggressively? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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LEOUSD targeting now $9.00 on the second cyclical rally.UNUSD SED LEO (LEOUSD) has completed the 6-month consolidation by making a Higher High. As it trades now above both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), it looks now ready to start the 2nd rally of the Bull Cycle.
In the previous Bull Cycle (2020 - 2022), the two major rallies were almost of the same % rise (+194.50% and +198.50% respectively). Since the December 2023 - March 2024 rally peaked after a +72.26% rise, it is technically justified to assume at least a similar Bullish Leg based on the pattern.
As a result, we are expecting at least $9.00 by early 2025.
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NEARUSD Trapped within the 1D MA50 and MA200.NEAR Protocol (NEARUSD) was rejected on its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on September 26 2024 and today it is testing its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the 1D MA200 rejection was also a rejection at the top of the 6-month Channel Down, holding the 1D MA50 may turn out to be the new Support if the price is to finally break this pattern.
The 1D RSI is already testing its own Higher Lows trend-line, so there are high chances of a rebound here on the 1D MA50. If not expect a bounce at the bottom of the (dotted) Channel Up. Either way, the Target is Resistance 1 at 6.5000.
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ONE MORE LEG DOWN FOR BITCOIN BEFORE TAKE OFF..???I got an interesting view on BITCOIN while all bullish-ers and bullsh17-ers always talk about BUY BUY BUY..
I own Bitcoin and hold some of it, but i just sold a huge portion of my bitcoin and prepare to re-entry around 50k.
I assumed the W-Y-Z correction is not over, and Bitcoin owe one more leg down to accomplish the "Z", which is at least as low as "Y", around 49k to 50k.
Of course for long term view i am still and still so confident that Bitcoin will reach at least 100k to 125k.
LET'S GO!
CHEERSS!!!
BITCOIN The 'March-October' effect kickstarting an insane rally.Back in August we were first to discover and bring to you the 'March - October' effect (see chart below) on Bitcoin (BTCUSD), which is what every one is talking about now as we've started the month of October yesterday and the final quarter (Q4) of the year:
As you can see, this is nothing more than a consolidation that the market tends to make within this 6-month range that ends on October, which kick starts an aggressive rally. That was the case in 2020 (would be more flawless if the COVID crash hadn't distorted the chart) and more recently in 2023. Note that historically October shows gains of around +21.00%.
What we can additionally keep from this chart is that the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) held on three 1W candle tests since the August 05 Low and that provides the base for a potential October 2024 - March 2025 rally.
March 2025 has high chances of forming the peak of the rally as it historically tends to tops such Bullish Legs and then starts consolidation phases. That was the case on March 2024, March 2023, March 2021 and (as mentioned) if it weren't for the COVID flash crash, would have been most likely the case for March 2020.
All in all, even though the first two days haven't been ideal, we expect October to prepare the foundation for an incredible rally, especially on its last 2 weeks, a rally that might very well reach as high as $150000 before it enters a correction again.
But what do you think? Will October start such a rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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DOTUSD Is it really copying ETC's past Cycle?Polkadot (DOTUSD) appears to be following since its 2021 High (All Time High), ETC's previous Cycle of 2018 - 2021. As you can see on this 1W chart, the RSI sequences in particular between the two fractals are almost identical.
Lower Highs Double Tops leading to the Bear Cycle, then an RSI bottom leading to a price break-out above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (on overbought RSI), finally followed by a new decline (RSI at 40.00), which in ETC's case when broken, led to the Bull Cycle's Parabolic Rally.
Right now it appears that DOT is on the 40.00 RSI Low, so naturally if it is indeed replicating Ethereum Classic's previous Cycle, we should see the price starting to rise aggressively towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. If that's the case, we can expect a High around $200 by the end of 2025.
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Ethereum (ETH) - Crabs remain in control!It remains anemic.
For me it is not a trading zone and should be treated with caution. As it keeps making lower highs and trend is down on the daily
Weekly is holding by a thread. Take action if it breaks below
Below 2,300 = Red button.
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Most altcoins look like this. Only a few are still somewhat attractive, but unless this low holds. I see no reason to blindly bid on “support”.
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Safest entry above $3k.
Treat everything as resistance until that level is recovered.
LINKUSD Is it about to catch the world's attention again?Almost 1 year ago (October 25 2023, see chart below), Chainlink (LINKUSD) gave us an excellent long-term buy signal after breaking above the Bear Cycle's Lower Highs:
Our 20.000 Target was hit and shortly after the price started to decline inside a 7-month Channel Down, which is still dictating the price action. Since the August Low though, the price has been rebounding on the 2023 Resistance, which we can now consider that it turned into Support.
This cyclical behavior was last seen during the previous Cycle when after a 2.618 Fibonacci extension reach, the price entered a multi-month correction below the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and then recovered for the 2nd and final (and most powerful) rally of the Cycle.
This is exactly what we've been seeing this time around also. See how similar the 1W RSI sequences also are between the two fractals.
As a result, we expect LINK to start rising aggressively, even on this month. The previous Cycle topped on the 4.382 Fibonacci extension, so assuming this will be targeted again, we expect to see 53.00 by mid 2025, which is almost its All Time High.
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BITCOIN When Yuan gains Bitcoin shines. And it's already startedBitcoin (BTCUSD) has already started to break-out last week as it closed the first 1W candle with a Lower High in 6 months. Since the August 05 bottom, we've been seeing a strong bullish build up on BTC and the reason may be simpler than you thought.
As this 1W chart shows, historically when the USDCNY pair (red trend-line) tops by forming Lower Highs and starts declining (aggressively), Bitcoin always initiates its Parabolic Rally phase.
This basically means than when the Yuan gains strength, Bitcoin shines. The USDCNY's previous Cycle in particular, is virtually identical to the current one (2022 - 2024). All the above indicate that we may be on the verge and witnessing the start of BTC's most powerful part of the Bull Cycle.
But what do you think? Will a continuous fall on USDCNY fuel an aggressive rally on Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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AVAXUSD Bottom formed & going for the ultimate bullish breakout.Avalanche (AVAXUSD) has just touched this week the top of the 6-month Channel Down. In cyclical terms, this is just a big Bull Flag half-way through the Bull Cycle, similar to those of the previous one, in August - November 2020 and March - June 2021.
The Cycle's 2nd bottom is in being doubt as the RSI held and rebounded on the 40.00 Symmetrical Support, which held and kick started the post June 2021 bottom rally. The only confirmation left to give us is to break above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since late July.
As you can see both of 2020 - 2021 Bull Flags rebounded aggressively reaching the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result once the 1W MA50 breaks, we expect a similar rally on AVAX, whether more aggressive like 2020 or marginally less like 2021, but our Target is at $250.00 (Fib 2.0 and above the All Time High).
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SOLANA - Second Wave Incoming?Everyone's favorite altcoin, at least in this cycle!
Let's study CRYPTOCAP:SOL 's behavior so far and see how much gas it has left in the tank.
Macro View
The month is looking promising! It's currently trading above previous month high and 2023 yearly open (key level) . What does this mean? Two possible outcomes:
The trend will stall for another three months before reaching new ATH (all-time highs).
The trend will issue a new bullish signal at the close of this month if it reaches $200.21.
The latter scenario has a higher probability, so let's explore it a little further
If the trend confirms within this month - let's say it doesn't but August does print the bullish signal - the price targets will be at $438 and $1,531 if things pick up nicely.
The second target remains within reach as the consolidation period features multiple equal highs. This calls for a strong move to the upside once things line up, as they are doing now.
Actions to take:
Bid this near $170 and have some last bids at the current monthly open ($148 - $152)
Add to spot buys if price hits $200 before the July monthly close.
Trade is meant to be long term, so be patient as I still think it presents the best and safest setup.
Below $140 the idea is invalidated :(.
BITCOIN making a huge break-out as we speak.A little more than a week ago (September 17, see chart below), we made clear that if Bitcoin (BTCUSD) broke above July's Lower Highs trend-line (the Descending Triangle's Top), it would be a major bullish break-out for the long-term:
And so it did and today we witness another strong daily rise as the price broke above the August 25 65000 High, cementing and confirming all bullish break-out bias.
** Similar break-out happened 1 year ago **
What's even more interesting is that we saw almost the exact same break-out a year ago on October 01 2023, when BTC again broke above its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) just after the Lower Highs break-out of an identical Descending Triangle.
It is remarkable that the market was also on a 6-month consolidation phase at the time, with a clear Resistance and the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) supporting. The bottom was priced exactly when a 1D Death Cross was completed, just like the current phase did on August 05.
** 6-month Resistance break leading to +200% rise **
After a quick 10-day consolidation following the Lower Highs break-out, the 2023 fractal then 'attacked' the 6-month Resistance Zone and broke it aggressively, confirming the emergence of a violent Channel Up that, after almost a +200% rise, it would take Bitcoin to March's All Time High.
** Fed and U.S. elections immensely bullish **
With the Fed having started a new Rate Cut Cycle last week with an aggressive -0.50% cut and the U.S. Presidential Elections in November historically being a huge bullish event (as explained in one of our recent publications), there is no reason not to expect a similar rally.
We are expecting to see $95000 towards the end of the year.
So what do you think? Is this a huge bullish break-out for Bitcoin and if so, can we experience a an October 2023 - March 2024 rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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TRXUSD Buy opportunity below the 1D MA50.Tron (TRXUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 14 2022 bottom. The price is now pulling back from the latest Higher High but remains above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line).
This pattern indicates that after roughly every 55% - 65% rise, the price makes a pull-back and upon breaking below the 1D MA50, a buy signal emerges again. Wait until that and buy for the next Higher High. Our Target is 0.2100.
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CARDANO flashing the strongest buy signal in 1 yearCardano (ADAUSD) just gave the strongest long-term buy signal possible on the 1W time-frame as the 1W LMACD is forming a Bullish Cross. That is the first such formation in almost 1 year (since October 09 2023), indicating that we have the most powerful buy signal at hand.
The 1W RSI has been ranging since May, practically for the majority of the time that ADA has been trading below its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line).
Basically as you can see all the above conditions are identical to the previous Bull Cycle, where a Bullish Megaphone emerged on a 1W LMACD Bullish Cross and after a 1W MA50/ MA100 Bullish Cross, the bottom was formed, while the 1W RSI was consolidating.
This time we have all these formations emerged again, so any week now, Cardano could start its new Parabolic Rally. With a Higher Highs trend-line setting a clear Resistance, we see a $5.00 price as a strong Target for the Cycle Top.
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Trump or Harris?? For BITCOIN the elections only need to happen!Simplistic title over a matter as complicated and important as the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections this November, but completely true in terms of pragmatism.
As this straightforward 1W chart shows, Bitcoin (BTCUSD) isn't just bulletproof when it comes to the elections but in fact it gains extreme buying momentum irrespectively of the winner (Democrat or Republican).
Obama in 2012, Trump in 2016, Biden in 2020 all those elections had in common the enormous Parabolic Rally that was initiated exactly after the result. That was on all Cycles the most aggressive phase, clearly showing that investors just need the elections to be over in order to buy risky assets confidently without this macro event in the way. Usually this comes with fresh presidential assurances that the 'market remains strong and we will do everything to keep it this way' etc, so it makes sense.
What is equally interesting is that Bitcoin tends to top roughly a year after the elections:
November 06 2021 = Bitcoin topped 385 days later
November 08 2016 = Bitcoin topped 399 days later
November 03 2020 = Bitcoin topped 371 days later
This model indicates that even if we can't estimate accurately BTC's top in terms of price, we can time it. And based on the November 05 2024 elections, historically the minimum time it could time for BTC to reach a new Cycle top, would be 371 days, giving us a rough date around the week of November 10 2025!
But what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to get the boost of its life after the U.S. elections? And if yes, is it realistic to expect a top around November 2025?? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bitcoin Bullish count up.If you find this information inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment!
Reacting and testing level identified.
Bulls need to break this level (63380)
and the pivot (65k) as a show of force.
Here is my conservative take if an impulse completes.
All hinges on 61779 and (1) pivot holding.
Possible ZZ completing so looking for a reaction off most likely targets.
One reaction is given. Looking for an impulse down.
Trade Safe,
Trade Clarity.
The Rise of Gas Crypto: Exploring NEO’s Hidden GemGas serves as the fuel for transactions on the NEO blockchain. It powers smart contracts, enabling developers to create decentralized applications seamlessly. Without Gas, these processes would come to a halt.
In September 2024, we will witness the expected outcome of the Gas crypto supply and demand analysis as the strong monthly demand level takes over. Currently, a significant reaction is taking place. This reaction has also allowed for short-term and intraday cryptocurrency trades using supply and demand strategies or other intraday strategies. This analysis is intended for long-term investments. This crypto will probably provide new trade opportunities using the smaller timeframes.
DOGEUSD entering its Parabolic Rally phase. Can it hit $2.00?More than a year ago (July 24 2023, see chart below), we published our long-term expectations and pattern for Dogecoin's (DOGEUSD) Bull Cycle:
As you can see, it filled our projection quite effectively as it extended the Accumulation Phase (blue). That was a phase which, as you can see, was present during both of its previous Cycles and after a 1W MA50/100 Bullish Cross and a subsequent hold of the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), it came out of a (dotted) Channel Down/ Bull Flag and entered its Parabolic Rally phase (green).
As far as timing of the Cycle Top is concerned, we have a very consistent pattern which suggests that it is priced just after the 3.0 Fibonacci Time extension from the bottom of the Bear Cycle. That was accurate for both of the January 01 2018 and April 26 2021 Cycle Tops. As a result, the Top of the current Cycle should be expected a little after August 04 2025, assuming the true bottom of the last Bear Cycle was on the week of October 03 2022 (just before the FTX crash).
But what about the actual Top in price terms, you might be wondering? Well the first two Cycle Highs (January 20 2014 and January 01 2018) were priced just below the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level. The next one (April 26 2021) was priced higher on the 1.0 Fib on a technical overextension as it was the Cycle where Dogecoin experienced its strongest adoption and awareness.
It would be difficult to repeat this feat this time, unless some news/ fundamentals introduce new uses/ adoption for Doge and the market reacts with very aggressive capital inflows. In this new overextension case, we may see $6.00.
But our proper Target for this Cycle always was and remains $2.00, which falls marginally below the 0.786 Fib, just like the Tops of the first two Cycles.
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