BITCOIN's secret catalyst. The Gold-to-Crypto Rotation Is ComingBitcoin (BTCUSD) is attempting to form a new medium-term bottom here, following the Tariffs-led sell-off of the past 2 months. While the crypto market is consolidating and accumulating, the Gold market is smashing every historic All Time High (ATH) after the other.
This is not the first time we see this divergence between Gold and BTC and this is what historically delivers what we call 'Gold-to-Crypto Rotation'. This happens when Gold peaks, making its Bull Cycle Top, initiating a capital transition to BTC, hence starting the final rally of its Bull Cycle.
This has already taken place 3 times in its short history and Gold's sheer ferocity of the 2025 rally, indicates that we may possibly be about to repeat another one.
So what do you think is Gold about to top and offer a mass exodus a capital to Bitcoin, hence kickstarting a massive rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrency
Could this be beginning of 5th wave up in Bitcoin?Being cautiously optimistic - I can see a potential leading diagonal formation followed by 3-3 legs which could be legs w-x of w-x-y or w-x-y-x-z .
Only time will tell if this is what I think it is o it evolves into another corrective rise followed by further downside.
Inverted Head & Shoulders Pattern for BTC??!!!??!Bitcoin appears to be trading in an inverted h&s pattern.
Which coincides with a bullish breach of a Bullish Expanding Triangle highlighted in red to the upside!!
A double bottom is where the head of the inverted triangle can be formed, the space between the two bottoms forms the apex of the head of triangle.
First upside target of $90k USD
Second upside target is $260k USD
The Black Swan Method- Making TA as a trader is like reading a magical ball but some major unpredictable events are out of control.
- i usually accurate most of the time but i should be a fool to think i am always right, it's impossible to make TA in that markets conditions.
- So this post is not to make some kind of predictions but to warn peoples on what's going on right now.
- i will try to explain very basically the situation (with my bad english skills, so forgive me if i make some mistakes) :
1/ the first attack was based on Luna and UST, some entities started to short UST/Luna with some billions $, FTX and SBF surely did it. Luna tried to save the situation with their BTC reserve but it was effortless. they lost all. (Luna have never been hacked, important to specify this )
2/ the fail of UST was the first step to create a snowball effect.
3/ 3AC, Celsius, Voyager, and much more were all involved in Luna/UST and Anchor Protocol witch was giving 18% returns on UST. They used customers funds in UST and staked, when the situation started to turn really bad for Luna, they tried to save the situation trading customers funds and they failed. (any of those companies have been hacked, important to specify this )
4/ FTX used customers funds and started to short their own products, FTT, SOL, SRM, etc , Binance saw the move and twitted that they will drop all their FTT.
FTX locked their customers wallets. FTX used 8B$ Customers funds to short markets. they are still right now trying to short USDT on Binance. (FTX have never been hacked, important to specify this).
5/ The snow ball started to be transformed in an avalanche. The damage here is huge. An exchange implosion of this magnitude is a gift to bitcoin haters all over the world.
6/ Sam bankman-fried was a Trojan horse in the crypto space, surely backed by banks and govs, a kind of worm witch have to be eradicated.
7/ Soon bankers will tell you, " u saw what happened with your exchanges ??!!, better use CDBC and stick with Banks!! ", this is their ultimate goal.
- i pray for everyone who got caught up in this mess and lost money with those bad actors.
- i hope you take care of yourself and continue to be a part of this journey.
- i hope it doesn't turn you off of crypto witch are here to stay in the future.
- BTC is resilient. No matter the magnitude of the earthquake.
- Buy BTC
- Store in Ledger, Trezor or Paper Wallet.
- Hodl and come back later.
Have faith in what you believe and fight. Thanks for reading!
PS : Not sure this post will get me banned or censored, but at this point the freedom of speech is an human right.
Phemex Analysis #74: Pro Tips to Trade SUISUI ( PHEMEX:SUIUSDT.P ) is experiencing a challenging start to 2025, with its price declining 68% from its all-time high of $5.37 on January 6th. However, a potential bullish reversal signal is emerging, as the recent drop to $1.71 coincides with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) divergence, where the price makes lower lows while the RSI makes higher lows. This divergence suggests that the downward momentum may be weakening, and a trend reversal could be imminent. Let's explore the possible scenarios for SUI to guide our trades.
Possible Scenarios
Based on the current technical setup, here are several potential scenarios for SUI's price action:
1. Bullish Reversal and Breakout
The RSI divergence suggests a potential bullish reversal. If SUI breaks above key resistance levels with strong volume, it could confirm this reversal and lead to a significant upward move.
Pro Tips:
Monitor key resistance levels, such as $2.42 and $2.83.
A break above the $2.42 resistance level (or $2.83 for further confirmation), accompanied by increasing volume, would be a key signal.
Consider entering a long position on the breakout, with a stop-loss order placed below the breakout point or a recent swing low.
Potential profit targets for short-term profits are $3.56 and $4.25.
2. Consolidation and Range Trading
SUI's price may consolidate within a range as the market digests the recent decline and the potential for a reversal. This consolidation period could offer range-bound trading opportunities.
Pro Tips:
Identify support and resistance levels that define this range, such as the $1.71 support and $2.83 resistance.
Within this range, consider buying near the $1.71 support and selling near the $2.83 resistance.
It's important to set stop-loss orders outside the range to manage the risk of a potential breakout or breakdown.
3. Failed Reversal and Further Decline
While the RSI divergence is a bullish signal, there's a risk that the reversal fails, and the price continues to decline. This could happen if broader market sentiment turns bearish or if new negative information about SUI emerges.
Pro Tips:
Monitor key support levels, such as $2.0 and $1.71. A break below these levels with high volume could signal further decline.
If the price fails to break above $2.83 and starts to decline with strong volume, consider exiting long positions.
In a bearish scenario, shorting opportunities may arise on a break below significant support, but this should be done with caution and a tight stop-loss.
Conclusion
SUI presents a complex trading situation. The RSI divergence offers a potential bullish reversal, but the preceding sharp decline and overall market conditions create uncertainty. Traders should carefully monitor price action, volume, and key support and resistance levels. By considering the scenarios outlined above and employing sound risk management practices, traders can position themselves to potentially profit from SUI's price movements, whether it reverses upward, consolidates, or declines further.
Pro Tips:
Elevate Your Trading Game with Phemex. Experience unparalleled flexibility with features like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time adjustments to strategy orders. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
2018 Cycle Repeat? Bullish Bitcoin Until End of YearSee my DXY analysis for my full view on the performance on bitcoin (and other risk assets as well)
-Summary- bullish like 2018 until end of year.
-This chart pointing out time frames of past cycles, the over all market structure of bitcoins price, and the transformation of a bullish trend into the parabolic. (where I think we are now)
BTC 4H VS 1D 200 EMAIt's quite a rare occurrence when the 200 EMA finds itself in a very similar position but right now BTC has that exact setup.
On the 4H BTC is fighting the moving average for the 12th time since losing the support level at the beginning in February. At this time the bearish trend channel upper limit also coincides with this level now, IMO a big move is being setup, but the direction is unsure.
On the daily we're seeing the moving average also in line with the trend resistance however the curve itself differs to the 4H in the way that it's levelling out from an uptrend, not levelling out from downtrend.
Bullish scenario - Breaking out above the moving average and trend channel with strength I believe would start to bring buyers back. Now I would not expect buyers to come flooding in at once as many have been burned too many times trying to long a breakout only for it to be a fakeout. I could see many looking for a form of confirmation, be that a retest as new support or a new HH & HL structure.
Bearish scenario - Yet another rejection off this level would be continuation of the downtrend with many adding to their shorts. This to me would be tied to the SPX/ Tradfi movements although those markets are much stronger than this time last week.
In conclusion there is no clear sense of direction just yet but I think it's coming very soon. The chop we are seeing at the moment is a symptom of a lack of confidence and uncertainty in market conditions. Naturally this lends itself to a continuation of the downtrend but all it takes is a catalyst and some big believers to push BTC out above the downtrend to continue the bullrun. I think we get our answer soon.
BITCOIN just triggered the ultimate post-Halving BUY SIGNAL!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) hit last week the top of the green Gaussian Channel (GC), a key indicator as last time it did (September 02 2024), kickstarted the massive 2024 rally towards the end of the year.
In fact, it can be argued that when BTC makes contact with the GC during a Bull Cycle, it is the ultimate pull-back Buy Signal after Halving events. More specifically, during the previous Cycle and after the May 2020 Halving, the price touched the GC three times (August 31 2020, July 19 2021 and September 20 2021), all of which were the most optimal pull-back Buy Entries as Bitcoin rebounded instantly.
So far during this Cycle and after the April 2024 Halving, this is the 2nd time the GC is tested. As mentioned the first also initiated an instant rebound. As a result, the current GC test is technically considered a very strong buy opportunity for the remainder of the Cycle, which based on the Time Cycles of the last 2 Cycle Tops, it should peak around October 06 2025.
So what do you think? If buying now towards a potential October 2025 Top, the perfect opportunity? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTC has upside chances until it holds above 81K areaMorning folks,
So, picture barely has changes since our last discussion. Right now we do not see any ready-to-trade setups. But suggest some bullish support to the market. After major XOP target has been reached - BTC has not dropped but remains in tight consolidation. This is more a bullish sign.
In general, we could suggest here a kind of reverse H&S shape. It makes us think that until BTC price is above ~ 81K area, it keeps chances on upside breakout. Drop below 81K will lead BTC back to the previous lows.
So, if you would like to buy - try to do this as closer to the lows of consolidation as possible. We consider no shorts by far.
Is This The End of Pullback?BINANCE:SUPERUSDT has entered the support zone between 0.5142 – 0.4754 after a strong impulsive move to the upside.
This support zone is considered valid due to multiple rejections that occurred within this area in the past—indicating strong buyer interest.
Ideally, this is where we expect price to bounce and resume the bullish trend. The first sign of confirmation would be a break above 0.5272, which may open the path toward higher targets.
However, the bullish scenario remains valid only if the price stays above 0.4983—a key invalidation level.
Note:
If this level is breached before a clear candlestick confirmation, the candle pattern being used to validate the move becomes invalid.
Even if the price breaks below the invalidation level, as long as it remains within the support zone, the support is still valid — but it would require the formation of a new bullish candlestick pattern to re-confirm the potential for an upward move.
(JASMY) jasmy "cycle-phase-wave"According to an enhanced MACD indicator that follows three layers of information I found the peak MACD green to line up with the yellow lines on the chart that are assigned with the next alternative colored line to be aligned with the most recent improvement in the otherwise losing price for the last months of time. Although an elliott wave is not seen I figured it would be possible to create a measurement like wave using an indicator to guide where those points should be.
TradeCityPro | MANAUSDT Fake Breakout Trigger Activated!👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let’s dive into the analysis of one of the metaverse coins and quickly check the trigger and the action unfolding on its chart together!
🌐 Overview Bitcoin
Before starting the analysis, I want to remind you again that we moved the Bitcoin analysis section from the analysis section to a separate analysis at your request, so that we can discuss the status of Bitcoin in more detail every day and analyze its charts and dominances together.
This is the general analysis of Bitcoin dominance, which we promised you in the analysis to analyze separately and analyze it for you in longer time frames.
📊 Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly timeframe, MANA is one of those coins still oscillating within its range box. After a rejection from the key ceiling at 0.7679, we moved back toward the lower end and continued to fluctuate within our range box.
The candle from two weeks ago attempted to close below the critical support at 0.2484—and it did close below this box’s floor. However, this didn’t trigger a sharp drop; instead, we saw a fake breakout!
A fake breakout occurs when a support or resistance level is breached, but the next candle reverses back above the support or below the resistance. This is often called a fake breakout, and it typically signals a trend reversal or the start of a new trend.
That’s exactly what happened here. After the break, the next candle closed as a strong green candle, returning MANA to its box. This could mark the start of a new trend. You can take this trigger with a stop loss at 0.1722 and capitalize on the potential move!
📉 Daily Timeframe
In the daily timeframe, MANA has continued to show the aftermath of the fake breakout. After the failed attempt to break below 0.2484, the price quickly recovered, with buyers stepping in to push it back into the range box.
The strong green candle that followed the fake breakout confirms the buying pressure, and the price is now testing the upper boundaries of the box. If we see a break above 0.7679, it could signal a strong bullish move. However, caution is needed—failure to break this resistance could lead to another rejection.
For buying, the fake breakout trigger at 0.2484 is active, and you can enter with a stop loss at 0.1722. Confirmation would come from sustained volume and a push above the 50-day moving average. For selling, if we break below 0.1722, it’s a sign to exit, as the downtrend could resume.
✍️ Final Thoughts
Stay level-headed, trade with precision, and let’s capitalize on the market’s top opportunities!
This is our analysis, not financial advice always do your own research.
What do you think? Share your ideas below and pass this along to friends! ❤️
BITCOIN Sell everything in October!Yep, kind of a clickbait title but it doesn't fail to serve justice to this very important Bitcoin (BTCUSD) chart.
Today's analysis displays in the most illustrative way the extremely tight symmetry between BTC's Cycles and how this can help us time our Sell at the Top of the Cycle and equally have the patience to buy as close to the next Bottom as possible.
As you see, in the past +10 years since the 2014 Bear Cycle, every Cycle has almost identical time ranges/ durations. All three Bear Cycles since then, lasted for approximately 1 year, and both Bull Cycles for almost 3 years (152 weeks, 1064 days to be exact). More specifically, the last two Bear Cycles were exactly 1 year long, the 2018 one started on the week of December 11 2017 and ended on December 10 2018 and the next Bear Cycle started on November 15 2021 and ended on November 07 2022. So it's been December-to-December and November-to-November Bear Cycles respectively.
If this high degree of symmetry continues to hold, counting 1064 days from the last Cycle Bottom o November 07 2022, gives a time estimate for the next Cycle Top on (the week of) October 06 2025. If also that holds for the Bear Cycle, expect an October-to-October duration, with an approximate bottom on October 12 2026.
So Sell everything up to October 2025 and Buy back as we get close to October 2026 is the strategy?
Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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BTCUSDTHello Traders! 👋
What are your thoughts on BITCOIN?
Bitcoin is still struggling to break through the specified resistance zone.
As long as this resistance level remains unbroken, it is better to wait before entering a buy position. However, as long as Bitcoin does not fall below the specified support level, we can remain optimistic about its potential to rise.
Our outlook remains bullish, but we will wait for the breakout above the resistance before entering a buy. Once the level is broken, we will look for an opportunity to enter long positions.
Will Bitcoin break through resistance and continue higher? Share your thoughts below!
Don’t forget to like and share your thoughts in the comments! ❤️
Phemex Analysis #73: Pro Tips to Trade OM Upon the 90% CrashMANTRA (OM) experienced a dramatic price crash of over 90% last Sunday (April 13th). While many initially suspected a "rug pull" event, similar to what happened with Luna and FTX, OM Founder JP Mullin attributes the massive sell-off to forced liquidations at an exchange, triggering a panic sell-off. While the exact cause of this 90% crash is still unconfirmed, this volatility presents significant trading opportunities.
We suggest that traders use smaller time frames, such as 1-hour or 15-minute charts, to identify more trading opportunities in this volatile situation.
Here are possible scenarios on the 15-minute chart:
Possible Scenarios
1. V-Shaped Recovery
If strong buying pressure emerges and quickly pushes the price back up to pre-crash levels, it could signal a V-shaped recovery. This would indicate that the market has absorbed the sell-off and buyers are back in control.
Pro Tips:
Watch for large green candles with significant volume on the 15-minute chart, that rise above $0.89 or $1.0.
Consider entering a long position on the breakout above key resistance levels ($0.89 & $1.0).
Place a stop-loss order below a recent swing low to protect against a reversal.
2. Consolidation and Accumulation.
The price may consolidate in a range after the crash, as the market tries to find a new equilibrium. This consolidation phase could represent a period of accumulation, where buyers are slowly absorbing the remaining supply.
Pro Tips:
Identify key support and resistance levels within the consolidation range, which is $0.89 to $0.73 or $1.0 to $0.55.
Consider range-bound trading strategies, such as buying near support and selling near resistance.
Alternatively, use Phemex Grid Bots to capitalize all the small price movement during the accumulation phase.
3. Further Decline
If the selling pressure continues or new negative information emerges, the price could decline further. This scenario would be characterized by continued large red candles and a lack of significant buying interest.
Pro Tips:
Monitor key support levels ($0.73, $0.55 & $0.45); a break below these levels could trigger further selling.
Consider exiting any long positions to avoid further losses.
Be cautious about entering new long positions until a clear bottom has been established.
Consider shorting opportunities if the price breaks down through significant support, but manage risk carefully.
Conclusion
The 90% crash in MANTRA (OM) has created a highly volatile trading environment. While the cause of the crash remains debated, the current market conditions offer substantial trading opportunities. By analyzing price action on smaller time frames, such as the 15-minute chart, and considering the scenarios outlined above, traders can potentially profit from both upward and downward price movements. However, it is crucial to exercise caution, manage risk effectively, and stay informed about any new developments related to MANTRA (OM).
Pro Tips:
Elevate Your Trading Game with Phemex. Experience unparalleled flexibility with features like multiple watchlists, basket orders, and real-time adjustments to strategy orders. Our USDT-based scaled orders give you precise control over your risk, while iceberg orders provide stealthy execution.
Disclaimer: This is NOT financial or investment advice. Please conduct your own research (DYOR). Phemex is not responsible, directly or indirectly, for any damage or loss incurred or claimed to be caused by or in association with the use of or reliance on any content, goods, or services mentioned in this article.
BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF Can Be Unfolding A Bullish ImpulseBlackRock's Bitcoin ETF with ticker IBIT made a massive rally in 2024, which can be wave 3 of an ongoing five-wave bullish impulse. Despite the recent decline at the beginning of 2025, it's still above 42 invalidation level, and as long as it's above that level, it can be wave 4 correction, so we may still see that 5th wave this year.
The Elliott Wave Principle is a form of technical analysis that identifies patterns in market movements. A bullish impulsive wave is one of the most important and common wave structures in an uptrend. It describes how prices typically move in the direction of the main trend. A bullish impulsive wave consists of five waves labeled 1, 2, 3, 4, 5.
BITCOIN's ultimate VIX bottom signal-Last time gave +100% profitBitcoin (BTCUSD) is attempting to make yet another green day, yesterday not only did it close above its 1D MA50 again but was also the 4th green day in the last 6. This attempt is showing that the trend is gradually shifting again towards long-term bullish but today we'll present to you another one, this time in relation to the Volatility Index (VIX).
BTC's (orange trend-line) recent rise is naturally on a negative correlation with VIX (red trend-line) which is currently pulling back after it's most aggressive spike since the COVID flash-crash (March 2020).
Their ratio BTCUSD/VIX (blue trend-line) made a very interesting contact with the Higher Lows trend-line that has been holding since the August 24 2015 Low, which was the bottom of the 2014 Bear Cycle. Since then it made Higher Lows on March 16 2020, August 05 2024 and the most recent, April 07 2025. Every time it was a bottom indication and a massive rally followed. The 'weakest' of all was the previous one, which 'only' gave a +105% rise approximately. Based on that, there is no reason not to expect BTC to hit at least $150k by the end of this Bull Cycle.
Do you think that's a plausible target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHUSD: Prepare to buy if this trendline breaks.Ethereum remains bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 41.779, MACD = -115.050, ADX = 39.213) despite an encouraging start to the day as the 4 month Channel Down is intact. The 1D RSI is supported and is trading sideways and ETH itself is back to historic buy levels. We are willing to buy only after a break over the 1D MA50 validates the trend change technically. If that happens we will aim for the 2.0 Fibonacci extension (TP = 2,800). You can use as an extra validation condition a potential break of the 1D RSI above the R1 level.
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TradeCityPro | AVAXUSDT Watch the Altcoins!👋 Welcome to TradeCityPro Channel!
Let’s dive into the analysis of one of my favorite coins, which is likely to make a move this week. Let’s break it down and take a closer look together!
🌐 Overview Bitcoin
Before starting the analysis, I want to remind you again that we moved the Bitcoin analysis section from the analysis section to a separate analysis at your request, so that we can discuss the status of Bitcoin in more detail every day and analyze its charts and dominances together.
This is the general analysis of Bitcoin dominance, which we promised you in the analysis to analyze separately and analyze it for you in longer time frames.
📊 Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly timeframe, the AVAX chart is one of the smoothest and most technical charts I’ve seen—support and resistance levels work like a charm, and price patterns are fairly predictable.
After getting rejected at the key resistance of 53.62—a historically significant level—sellers stepped in, pushing us into a deep correction. The failure to break this level was partly because we didn’t enter overbought territory on the weekly chart.
For buying, the weekly chart is currently very bearish, so jumping in now isn’t logical. However, a break above 53.82 would be our most reliable trigger for an upward move. For exiting, if we drop below 21.02, I’d personally cash out. If we climb back above 21.02, I’d buy again—this time with fewer AVAX but the same USDT amount to manage risk.
📉 Daily Timeframe
In the daily timeframe, after a rejection at 53.96 that led to a correction, it seemed likely we’d test this resistance again. However, after the rejection, we broke below 44.21, forming a price range box.
Right now, we’re not paying much attention to resistance levels. Our trendline is showing lower highs but flat lows, indicating that our movement is driven by the trendline rather than traditional support and resistance.
With that in mind, a break of the trendline could spark a move, but we still need a trigger. The 22.71 level is our breakout trigger—not just a resistance. If we break it, we could enter a buy with a risky stop loss at 16.00. Confirmation would come from a spike in volume. For selling, if we get rejected at the trendline and break below 16.00, I’d personally exit.
✍️ Final Thoughts
Stay level-headed, trade with precision, and let’s capitalize on the market’s top opportunities!
This is our analysis, not financial advice—always do your own research.
What do you think? Share your ideas below and pass this along to friends! ❤️
Chainlink - 1W
Overview
Chainlink (LINK) is experiencing an interesting price movement on the weekly timeframe, forming a Symmetric Triangle pattern. This pattern is a strong technical formation that often precedes significant price movements upon breaking one of its sides. This analysis focuses on the pattern, key resistance and support levels, and price expectations if the resistance is broken.
Symmetric Triangle Pattern
Pattern Formation: The Symmetric Triangle forms as price volatility gradually contracts, creating two converging trendlines (a descending resistance line and an ascending support line). On Chainlink’s weekly timeframe, this pattern is clearly visible, indicating a consolidation period before a major price move.
Time Duration: The pattern has persisted for several weeks, enhancing its technical significance, as longer-term patterns are generally more reliable.
Trading Volume: A gradual decrease in trading volume is observed as the price approaches the triangle’s apex, a typical behavior reflecting traders’ anticipation of an imminent breakout.