SUIUSD Very strong bullish break-out signal.Sui (SUIUSD) has gone +140% from last week's Low (August 05) and broke above two major medium-term Resistance levels: 1) The Internal Lower Highs trend-line) and 2) The 4-month blue Channel Down.
The last time the price broke above such major Lower Highs trend-line was on November 04 2023. That initiated a rally that peaked just below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, which gave way to the 4-month blue Channel Down.
An equally strong bullish signal is the break-out of the 1W RSI above its MA line. As a result, we have strong reasons to turn bullish on Sui on the long-term, targeting 2.7000.
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Cryptocurrencysignals
Bearish reversal?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot which acts as a pullback resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which has been identified as an overlap support.
Pivot: 2,807.45
1st Support: 2,538.15
1st Resistance: 3,086.37
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN is right on track and even stronger than previous CyclesBitcoin (BTCUSD) has experienced a sharp drop over the past 2 weeks, causing a test of the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which as explained in a previous analysis, this has only happened once during a Bull Cycle.
As today's idea shows though, what caused massive panic and liquidations recently, can be seen as merely a technical attempt of the market to re-adjust and harmonize what was a very aggressive bull run up until March, towards the mean, relative to past Cycles.
More specifically in the last 2 Cycles, as you can see, 630 days after the Cycle bottom, Bitcoin was trading just below its 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, while on the current Cycle the recent drop took place just over it. This means that the current bull run came closer to the trend of the last two, but remains more aggressive.
As a result, we expect BTC to resume the rally and continue on a more aggressive tone than in the past and by early 2025 break above 100k and possibly by next Summer reach the -0.618 Fibonacci extension, a level that was achieved during all past Cycles.
So what do you think? Has this BTC Cycle been normalized after the recent drop and is now ready to resume the uptrend? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Potential bullish bounce?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance level which has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 56,833.90
1st Support: 56,677.44
1st Resistance: 61,685.95
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ETH/USD Secondary trend. Bullish triangle. Breakout. Target 96%Logarithm. Time frame 1 week (less is not necessary). Horizontal accumulation channel has reformatted due to price holding near the meridian zone of the 1500 level into an ascending triangle (bullish triangle).
Linear for clarity.
Locally breakout zone. Time frame 1 day
Fractals. Underperformance due to liquidity and capitalization.
Similar things are developing only more slowly (liquidity) as recently in SOL/USDT.
SOL/USDT Secondary trend (part). Triangle. 1 10 2023
Already almost +150% off the breakout.
ETH will be a bit off due to timing, but the gist is similar....
Or in the past LISK/USD in the distant 2020 (Interest is different due to liquidity)
LISK/USD Major trend. Triangle. 24 12 2020
+325%
On growth always wait for correction, on fall for growth (reversion), such is the psychology of behavior of most market participants. .
Memo to the hamster. Sometimes staying out of the market is the best strategy. [/b
By the end of 2024 the price with "high probability" for this bankable super centralized cryptocurrency will be over $10k. In 2025 in the distribution zone (trend highs) over 20k.
Risk Management. .
There will very likely be a “super takeout” (emphasis added, this is a logical “as always” probability). Look at a chart of ether or bitcoin and think about when it is more rational to do this. Probably, it will seem like everything is "going to hell", treat it coldly, buy back in installments with a grid of orders from the profit that will be in the near medium term. But, it does not change the above described target of the cycle of “participation” and “distribution”.
When the price falls—the majority of market participants expect prices to rise or at least return to the past maximums.
When the price rises—the majority, "according to the habit of previous self-deception" expects prices to fall....
The greater the price growth, the greater the expectation, up to the "point of breaking the opinion" (when it is already necessary to do everything the other way around).
A perfect scheme of making money on the expectation of the majority.
NEO/USDT: Prime Buying Opportunity Amid Bullish Reversal SignalThe NEO/USDT pair is currently trading at 4.153, showing signs of a potential upward reversal after a recent downward correction. This retracement has brought the price to a critical support level, which is being closely watched by traders. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recently dipped into oversold territory, indicating that the selling pressure may be waning and a reversal could be imminent. Additionally, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is beginning to show a bullish crossover, which historically signals a shift in momentum from bearish to bullish.
Moreover, the price action suggests that NEO has formed a bullish divergence, where the price is making lower lows while the RSI is making higher lows. This divergence is often a precursor to a strong upward move. The 50-day moving average is also flattening out, suggesting that the recent downtrend may be losing steam and that a base is being formed.
Considering these technical indicators, the current level offers a strong buying opportunity for investors looking to capitalize on the potential medium-term upside. The combination of oversold conditions, bullish divergence, and a potential MACD crossover suggests that NEO could see significant gains from this point. With the price at 4.153, a well-timed entry could allow for substantial profits as the market reverses and begins to move higher. Therefore, this pullback should be viewed as a prime opportunity to buy, with the expectation of a strong rally in the coming weeks.
HNTUSD can go 10x from here.It was quite long ago (December 06 2023, see chart below) the last time we looked into Helium (HNTUSD) but it did offer nonetheless a solid bullish break-out opportunity:
Now Helium is having (if the week concludes at least on the current levels) the strongest 1W bullish reversal of the Cycle. It broke above both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line of February. That is a clear technical bullish break-out that aims at the final Resistance of the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
A similar pattern was formed during its previous Bull Cycle with the current rebound resembling the November 2020 bounce. This initiated a +3067% rise before the next medium-term pull-back.
As a result, we see strong evidence for an upcoming +1380% rise from the current level with our Target being $90.00.
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BITCOIN Amazing 'Golden Ratio' correlation showing the way!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is under heavy pressure lately, basically it has paused for the past 5 months the uptrend that started in late 2022. We have discovered a remarkable correlation with Gold (XAUUSD) and Russell 2000 (RUT) in the form of the GOLD/RUT ratio (blue trend-line). This correlation, which is a negative one (i.e. when BTC rises the GOLD/RUT ratio falls and vice versa), is present on a cyclical basis.
This means that during every Cycle, it displays a behavioral pattern that is common. That is the following:
When the GOLD/RUT ratio peaks and starts falling by forming Lower Highs, Bitcoin tends to start its parabolic rally (green arc) of the Bull Cycle, above previous All Time Highs. This usually takes place a little before the Halving.
Right now it appears that it happened on the last Halving (mid April), assuming we see the ratio forming Lower Highs from now on. If it does, BTC will most likely start the most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle. The Sine Waves that track the GOLD/RUT peak, suggest that indeed the April High may have been the new peak. It remains to be seen if Lower Highs will be formed.
What do you think will happen? Can this be BTC's "Golden ratio" that reveals the parabolic rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Mirroring KDA: Why CULT DAO Could Skyrocket 100xToday I will present my thesis on how it is possible for CULT to move over x100 from its current price.
This all started by mistaking the KDA chart for a CULT chart.
What you see above is very interesting; CULT has mirrored KDA in pretty much every way.
So the thesis is the following:
If CULT is mirroring KDA and KDA is mirroring its first cycle, then that means CULT, in theory, could move x100 from where we are right now.
The first wave of KDA took nearly the same amount of time: 168 days compared to 147 days.
I believe right now we just completed the second wave. It took KDA 140 days to bottom in the last cycle. So far, it's been 140 days, and it seems to have a very high chance of being a major bottom. So again, the same amount of time, most likely.
The top of the 4.236 Fib extension would technically take CULT to $0.00026607 (143.82x), which would be around a 1.3 billion dollar market cap.
Bitcoin cycles take 1064 days to complete. If the cycle repeats, that means we either have a top in May 2025 or September 2025, depending on what you mark as a cycle low.
Which again, May 2025 fits with this fractal perfectly, and when you overlay the KDA fractal onto the CULT chart, what you see is something pretty amazing.
A rally till the end of the year with an 80% correction down to this very strong confluence point in late February/March 2025.
With the final run being from March 2025 to May 2025.
Another interesting chart I'm looking at is CULT/VIX. You can see that the February 2023 and March 2024 highs hit the same point in this chart.
Taking a look at this chart, we can also see a pattern emerge that showed us the start of the altcoin run.
(Crypto Total Market Cap Excluding Top 10 Dominance, %)
**Conclusion**
If this thesis proves correct, I've just handed you a 100x opportunity, published months in advance—a historical record of what might seem impossible but could soon become reality.
Just like predicting this huge crash before it happened.
XRPUSD Incredibly strong 1D candle. Sign of a bullish break-out?A little over a month ago (June 25, see chart below), we posted a roadmap on XRPUSD looking towards an aggressive break-out and rally above its multi-year Triangle:
Yesterday, the crypto made a massive 1D green candle (end of SEC's lawsuit), against the majority of the market sentiment and yet again it almost touched the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Channel Down pattern that started on the July 13 2023 High.
Just a week ago (July 31 2024), we had the last test (and rejection) of that top so a test that soon could be an early warning of a bullish break-out.
If the price breaks and closes the candle above it, we expect a W-shaped recovery that could target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at 1.1275.
If rejected at the top again though, we would expect a re-test of the Channel's 0.618 Fib level, with a rough Target at 0.4000.
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BITCOIN priced the new bottom. Strong evidence of new ATH ahead.With tensions and volatility continuing among the markets, we revisit a chart that we published almost 1 year ago (August 14, see chart below) when the market was again in a time of high volatility and was consolidating within a wide margin for a rather long period of time (April 17 2023 - August 21 2023):
Back then we stated that a huge rally was in the making and only one week later, the market delivered and BTC rose from 25k to +70k in a span of 6 months. It was the unique Bullish Cross on the 3W KTS indicator that only happens once in every Cycle that cemented our bullish projection.
BTC is now on a consolidation phase similar not only to the 2023 one (Apr - Aug) but also to the past Cycles that followed the KTS Bullish Cross. It is noticeable that there are two such consolidation phases in every Bull Cycle and currently we are inside the 2nd.
This is strong evidence suggesting that we are about to experience multiple green months in the coming quarters.
Do you agree or you feel the economic slowdown fears will prevail and break this structure? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bearish drop?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) has reacted off the pivot and could fall to the 1st support level which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 56,868.43
1st Support: 51,276.67
1st Resistance: 59,440.64
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Black Swan Incoming (Part 1)This is the start of a series I will be publishing for the rest of the year. I will focus 100% on trying to do the impossible and predict a narrow timeframe of a potential black swan event.
**The series will end and this theory will be invalidated if we break and close a weekly above the previous weekly high at 75k.**
**Fear and Greed Index (alternative.me)**
As you can see, we only have data from 2018. Nevertheless, we have data on the last bull market and rallies since then. As we can see, the index will print lower highs before rallies and bull markets.
**What we have now is a break of a multi-year uptrend on the index and currently putting in a lower low, which is not a good sign at all.**
**2Week MACD BEARISH CROSS**
The MACD has crossed bearish on the 2W timeframe five times. One out of the five times, it was a false signal, and that was the crash in May 2021 down to 30k. The rest of the time, when this signal fires off, Bitcoin from that candle close on average moves down 63%.
TOPPING DISTRIBUTION FRACTAL APPEARS
I have covered this fractal many times on my channel; you can probably find more than ten publications just on this fractal.
Why are we seeing a double-top distribution fractal again play out at the top of rallies? How many times are they going to use it? These three occasions, you can see they all happened with very similar timing from peak to peak and the first wave down.
Volume Block and Bayesian Trend
The Bayesian Trend is currently giving a 41% probability of a move higher from this point. As I'm writing this, Bitcoin has just hit the 0.618, which happens to be the level with a dominant sell order block. It's a classic move, guys: double-topping pattern into a 0.618 retracement rollover, nothing new.
Crash Zone Explained
Here is why I think "if" a black swan happens, this is the timeframe where it's most likely to happen. We have US elections, the first possible rate cut, and the start of my Fib time.
As you can see, this Fib sequence predicted the last black swan event, which was the Covid Crash. It is a very powerful sequence for predicting Bitcoin macro pivot points a year. Last year, unfortunately, was the first time it failed. Nevertheless, I still keep an eye out during these periods.
Fed cuts are not bullish, especially after long pauses above 5%. Last time we had rates at 2% when we started cutting, a multi-month downtrend began which led to the Covid crash.
NAS100 above.
**BTCBTC: Spent Volume Lifespan 7y-10y**
The total transfer volume of coins that were last active between 7y and 10y ago.
Always a useful tool to see what the big boys are doing and what we see is something pretty shocking.
Big volume in these wallets can be connected to major pivot points for Bitcoin in the past. So the largest volume output recorded before 2024 was 1600 BTC.
In 2024...............
It's the same chart, just included 2024. The output volume in June 2024 was 13,900 Bitcoin. I double-checked it; it's the reason now all the other pivot points look like a small blip on the chart.
Insane, 13,900 Bitcoin moved at an all-time high, and then we get a big move down. I guess this metric still works perfectly at finding tops.
**Crash Targets**
As you can see, we have two main diagonal supports to look at. Honestly, I do not trust any diagonal supports, but the yellow macro one has three cycle low hits, so it holds a lot of weight.
The second one, which is the orange dotted line, has two hits and will most likely fail. In my experience, when we have a very clear diagonal support and it comes down for its third touch, it breaks because everyone is looking at the same thing. It's that simple: the entire space is looking at it, so therefore it breaks and everyone gets rekt.
The golden pocket sits at 35-37k and at the macro yellow support. This is where I would say the bottom is most likely in.
If the black swan plays out all the way, we would most likely see the CME gap at 21k close. This would most likely be a hammer candle that would last seconds.
**Invalidation**
If Bitcoin were to break the previous swing high at 74k and close a weekly above it, this entire TA would be invalidated. Even if it closed above 0.618 at 67k, the chance of invalidation would increase dramatically.
BITCOIN Is this a BEAR or a BULL Cycle?? This is the last stand.Bitcoin just hit before the E.U. opening the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), a Support level that has been intact for more than 1 year (since the week of March 13 2023). This is a test of Bear Cycle territory for BTC as during its past Cycles, this level was touched only after the market has started a new Bear Cycle, with the only exception being the week of June 21 2021.
The key difference then was even though the price hit and marginally broke below its 1W MA50, it never closed a 1W candle below it (the MA50) and that gave way to a new 5-month rally until the eventual Cycle Top.
This cross-Cycle analysis, shows just how strong and intact the 1W MA50 has been during all Bull Cycles. The market during its current strong 5-month consolidation since the March ATH, never really broke considerably higher than the previous Cycle's High (November 2021), so symmetrically BTC appears to be in a below-ATH-Resistance consolidation phase similar to November 2020, April 2017 and February 2013.
As a result, it becomes obvious that since the 1W MA50 broke (even marginally), the condition for the Bull Cycle to continue and give a new rally from here is for the price to avoid closing any 1W candles below the 1W MA50. If not, then expect just a dead-cat-bounce and then after diving below the 1W MA50 again, to turn it into a Resistance and trade below it for the rest of the new Bear Cycle.
So which of the two do you think it's going to be, a Bull or a Bear Cycle? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Could Bitcoin reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 67,019.71
1st Support: 63,519.90
1st Resistance: 69,419.07
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could price reverse from here?Bitcoin (BTC/USD) is falling towards the pivot, which has been identified as an overlap support and could reverse to the 1st resistance which is a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 63,359.63
1st Support: 61,477.03
1st Resistance: 65,878.60
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
BITCOIN Ultimate Cross-Cycle Comparison on 1 chart! DON'T MISS!On this special Bitcoin (BTCUSD) analysis, we compare the current Cycle to all past ones by plotting one on top of the other. By classifying each Phase, we can see that all Cycles share some very strong characteristics.
More precisely, BTC appears to be currently approaching the end of the Break-out Phase (orange Rectangle). That gives way to the most aggressive part of the Cycle, its Parabolic Rally Phase (green Rectangle).
As you can see, this is where all 3 past Cycles took off, the 2018 - 2021 Cycle (black trend-line), the 2014 - 2017 Cycle (blue trend-line) and the 2011 - 2013 Cycle (orange trend-line), the latter of which is stretched in order to fit on the shared bottom of the others.
This chart doesn't technically show the Target value of the Cycle's top but rather serves as a useful benchmark to time this peak, in relation to the Tops of the previous 3 Cycles. As you see, this might be towards the end of October 2025, i.e. a full year into the new U.S. Presidency, which is aligned almost perfectly with historic market behavior.
So what do you think? Is Bitcoin about to enter a Parabolic Rally phase and if so, could it essentially be a full year of rallying activity ahead of us? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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LITECOIN about to break-out to its parabolic rally.Litecoin (LTCUSD) is on its 3rd historic Cycle and just recovered its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). All Cycles have a Top, Bear Phase, Accumulation phase under Lower Highs and finally Parabolic Rallies.
It appears that we are currently about to complete the pre-rally Lower Highs accumulation phase, which will be confirmed after the price breaks above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) and the Lower Highs trend-line.
Technically it can go as high as the 1.1 Fibonacci extension ($500.00) but we will settle for the time being for an ATH test at $400.00 if this is where we will be by the time the price starts approaching the top of the Sine Wave.
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XRP moonshot?Since April 2021 XRP has been banging on the 2/1 Gann failing time and time again.
In the last three years we hit the 2/1 Gann 5 times and failed to break it , this monthly candle is extremely bullish and we have reached the apex of this Gann triangle, the chances are we break to the upside.
Since March 2020 we have been printing lower highs on the monthly without fail.
Stoch RSI monthly buy.
Bar pattern fractal from 2015 repeating.
Very high chance here XRP breaks 2/1 this time round , there is a lot of momentum.