XRPUSDT Secondary trend (part) 01 07 2024🟡 Logarithm. Time frame 3 days. Everything is the same as before, nothing new. I’m making a fresh idea, for the convenience of monitoring, how this scale of work is about I did it years ago, and for this there were a lot of local updates.
🟡 Line graph for visualization.
🟣 Local trend. Important breakout zone in scale.
🔵 Main trend
XRP/USD Main trend 2022
🔵 Main , part (this zone that has now been realized on the long-term consolidation chart).
XRP/USD Main trend (part) Triangle 2022
Part of the main trend (huge triangle) and this channel in it before the outcome. The main long-term trend reversal zones and percentages from this zone (relatively where we are now) are shown on the chart. The takeaway percentage is not shown here (a probability that needs to be kept in mind.
Previously, at the beginning of 2017, on XRP before the pump, more than + 65,000% - 55,000% did this (low liquidity). Previously, I showed and told the potential logical probabilities of cheating with something similar near reversal zones and how not only to protect yourself, but also to make money if something similar happens at the moment. I am not scaring, but simply reminding sectarians of the future, which naturally may not exist, but the probability always remains, for certain previously stated reasons.
🟣 For local and medium-term trading a good entry point for breaking the local trend (downward channel) can now be realized.
Control of risks, and understanding of potential work (variants of price movement, and what you will do in this or that outcome of probability) gives you an advantage over those who want to guess the price. Don't guess, but understand what you are doing and why. To make money systematically in (any) conditional markets, you don’t need to constantly guess the price. You may be wrong (your option is B), and that's okay.
🟠XRP to Bitcoin is the main trend.
XRP/BTC Main trend. Channel. Turning zones 03/15/2024
Cryptocurrencysignals
XRPUSD has started the cyclical parabolic rally.XRP (XRPUSD) is having this week the strongest 1W candle since July 10 2023. The long-term pattern is a 6-year Triangle (since January 01 2018) and with the weekly rise, it is about to test its top (Lower Highs trend-line). The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) is supporting this uptrend, which is technically the Cycle's Parabolic Rally.
In 1W RSI terms, the current price action appears to be similar with the March 20 2017 and November 2020 break-outs. Note also that as the 1W RSI broke into the overbought (>70.00) territory, this is technically the 1st of two tops, with the second (red circle) marking historically the Cycle's Top.
The Sine Waves catch very effectively the current RSI overbought High (green circle) so there is a remarkable frequency between the Cycles, which confirms that we are currently just starting the new rally.
We expect to test at least the 1.97500 April 2021 High.
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BITCOIN Riding the 1DMA50 wave is the best strategy you can haveBitcoin (BTCUSD) has had an enormous bullish break-out to new All Time Highs (ATH) following last week's U.S. elections. The past 2 days have seen this massive rally turn sideways and as always a certain part of market participants have started calling for big corrections or even bear markets. Once again we will let simple charting show why this sideways price action is nothing but a short-term and mostly necessary consolidation.
** November 2020 vs November 2024 **
This analysis is a comparison of BTC's October 2020 - April 2021 rally with October 2024 - today. We've made idea regarding those time periods in the past but this time we bring a more aggressive picture on the 1D time-frame.
As you can see, on both fractals the 1D RSI started with a Channel Up while the price was still trading sideways/ consolidating within the 1W MA50 (red trend-line) and the Resistance level. That was the first sign of the upcoming Parabolic Rally, which was confirmed after the price broke above the Resistance.
BTC formed a Channel Up itself and right now we are on the November Bullish Leg and its consolidation phase (circle) that has been evident on both fractals. The 2020 - 2021 rally lasted for 164 days after November 01 and rose by +395%.
** The key role of the 1D MA50 **
Even if these time and price lengths aren't replicated, the key here for traders and investors alike is this: From October 09 2020 up until April 18 2021, BTC neve closed a 1D candle below its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It was the 1D MA50 that fully supported this 6-month rally, giving excellent buy entries for those seeking dip buying opportunities or those who simply wanted to hold onto their BTCs for as high as possible.
** Just ride the wave **
As a result, a viable and confirmed strategy at this stage of the Cycle (if you don't want to trade the volatility and buy low/ sell why) could be to just sell when finally a 1D candle closes below the 1D MA50. This is what we effectively call 'riding the 1D MA50 wave'.
So what do you think? Are you prepared to hold until the 1D MA50 breaks, are you willing to buy every time the price gets close to it, or simply have a different strategy at this starge? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Alikze »» PEPE | The next rally - 1D🔍 Technical analysis: The next rally, Wave 3 or C bullish scenario - 1D
- It is moving in an ascending channel in the daily time frame.
- After hitting the ceiling of the channel, the price faced a zigzag correction, which faced buying pressure in the demand range.
- In the daily time frame, a movement cycle has been completed up to the ceiling of the channel, after which the correction has been completed with a zigzag correction in the range of the green box.
- After that, it had a rally in the form of the first wave, after which a zigzag correction in the bottom range of the channel met with demand.
💎 Currently, it is located in the middle of the channel due to the failure of the previous roof.
💎 Therefore, this bullish wave can continue the bullish trend to the specified areas with a pullback to the broken structure.
⚠️ In addition, if the price enters the Invalidation LVL range, the bullish scenario will be invalidated.⚠️
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BINANCE:PEPEUSDT
MOGUSD Aggressive bullish break-out taking place.MOG Coin (MOGUSD) has been trading within a Falling Wedge pattern and for the 2nd time in a week broke yesterday above its top (Lower Highs trend-line). This rebound is taking place after the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) held.
The whole sequence is identical to the Falling Wedge where the price accumulated before the February 2024 rally. As you can see even their 1D RSI fractals are identical. The rally that followed the bullish break-out extended to the 3.0 Fibonacci extension and rose by +11.180%.
If the current sequence continues to replicate that pattern, we expect to see 0.000035 by January 2025 the latest.
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BITCOIN buying pressure indeed stronger than any Cycle before!Three months ago (August 12, see chart below) we published our view on Bitcoin (BTCUSD) claiming that on the current levels and compared to the relative stages it was in previous Cycles, the bullish trend was stronger than ever before:
At the time the price was 'just' at GETTEX:59K and yesterday it touched the $90000 level. This shouldn't surprise you as the pattern has been 'playing out' in a similar way to both the 2019 - 2021 and 2015 - 2017 Bull Cycles.
In fact it is so strong that we now need to readjust the green parabolic channel of the current (2023 - 2025) Bull Cycle to a more aggressive pattern in order to fit the enormous rally that started in September.
As you can see this comparison with the previous Cycles suggests that BTC can reach at least the -0.618 Fibonacci extension, which is a little over $170000, like the other two did. It also highlights how the current Cycle has been more aggressive than the previous as the price reached the All Time High faster (March 2024) than the previous two but also the amazing symmetry among them as the current (final) parabolic rally that started on the August 05 2024 bottom took place 90 weeks (630 days) after the November 2022 bottom. As you see both in 2020 and 2016 the final parabolic rally also started 90 weeks after their respective Cycle bottoms.
So do you agree that the current rally shows the current buying pressure is more aggressive than in previous Cycles at this stage? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ETHEREUM Is this the parabolic rally to $11500?Ethereum (ETHUSD) gave us the perfect bottom buy entry on its 1M MA50 (red trend-line) last time we gave a signal on it (September 03, see chart below):
As you see this time on the 1W time-frame, following the last week the price saw the strongest weekly candle rise of the whole Bull Cycle, breaking and closing above its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since July 29 2024.
On top of that, the 1W MACD completed last week a Bullish Cross, the first since October 30 2023 (i.e. a year ago). That Cross was the final buy signal confirmation of the very aggressive multi-month rally that topped in March 2024. As a result, the current Bullish Cross should also be treated the signal we've been waiting to confirm the new Bullish Leg.
This time however, we are at this stage of the Bull Cycle where 4 years ago during the previous one, ETH started its Parabolic Rally, the most aggressive part of the Cycle. As you can see, in November 2020 the price was also above the 1W MA50, the 0.5 Fib and past a 1W MACD Bullish Cross. Also 1000 days have past since the previous Cycle Top, similar to this time also.
The rally that started then (Nov 2020) peaked marginally above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension, forming a top of the Higher Highs trend-line. As a result, we can expect ETH to target a new Cycle Top at $11500 (Fib 1.5 ext).
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KASPA - TRADE PLAN + TECHNICAL ANALYSISTechnical analysis + trading plan for Kaspa (KAS/USD), assuming a bullish continuation pattern as the symmetrical triangle indicates.
Pattern:
The price is forming a bullish symmetrical triangle, generally seen as a continuation pattern in an uptrend.
Current Price:
$0.15529, with the price consolidating within a triangle pattern.
Resistance and Support:
The top line of the triangle represents resistance, while the bottom line is support. The price is expected to break above resistance if the bullish momentum continues.
Indicators:
RSI (Relative Strength Index): RSI is high, around 76.8, indicating overbought conditions. This could mean a temporary pullback before a breakout.
Stochastic Oscillator: It is also in an overbought range, signaling that caution is needed, as the price may consolidate further.
VMC Cipher B Divergence: Suggests bullish divergence with a momentum shift, supportive of a potential breakout.
HMA Histogram: Shows slight bearish momentum, which may indicate a minor pullback before the breakout.
Trading Plan
Entry Strategy:
Breakout Confirmation: Enter a long position if there’s a confirmed breakout above the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle. Confirmation can be a 4-hour candle closing above the triangle with increased volume.
Anticipatory Entry: If you prefer a more aggressive approach, consider entering near the support line of the triangle. This is riskier but allows a lower entry price.
Stop-Loss:
Place a stop-loss below the support line of the triangle, approximately around $0.140. This will minimize losses if the pattern fails and the price breaks downwards.
Take-Profit:
Primary Target: Measure the height of the triangle from its widest point and add it to the breakout point. In this case, the target could be around $0.170 - $0.180 if the breakout occurs.
Partial Profit Levels: Take partial profits at key resistance levels, potentially around $0.165 and $0.175, to lock in gains as the price moves up.
Risk Management:
Set position size according to your risk tolerance. A typical risk is 1-2% of the trading capital on a single trade.
Consider adjusting the stop-loss to breakeven once the price moves halfway to the target.
Monitoring the Trade:
Watch the RSI and Stochastic indicators closely; if they remain overbought and the price struggles to break out, there could be a consolidation or even a reversal.
Look for volume spikes on breakout, as they can confirm the validity of the movement.
Exit Strategy:
Exit if the price fails to break out or if there’s a breakdown below the triangle, which would invalidate the bullish setup.
Consider trailing the stop-loss to secure profits as the price approaches higher resistance levels.
BITCOIN Can it repeat last year and reach $140000?It was less than a month (October 14, see chart below) when we updated our old Bitcoin (BTCUSD) Channel Up idea of June 07, calling for the confirmed start of the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up and setting a medium-term Target of $94500:
New evidence following the U.S. elections suggest that the aggressive nature of the past weekly rally can see BTC target even higher, more specifically the top of the Channel Up by Q2 2025.
As you can see, the price is currently between the 0.5 - 0.618 Fibonacci Channel range, which is technically a neutral zone. However it is considerably below the 0.618 horizontal Fib level applied on a potential +198.10% rise (same as the Sep 2023 - March 2024 rally). This showcases the enormous upside potential that exists within this 2-year Channel Up.
The RSI is about to enter the Overbought Zone (>70.00), which when the previous two Bullish Legs started was also while the price was below the 0.618 Fib (especially in the case of the October 20 2023 candle).
As a result, even though our 94500 medium-term Target stands, for the long-term we are targeting 140000, which is almost at the top of the 2-year Channel Up and marginally below a potential +198.11% rise. Notice that the two lengthy corrections (green Rectangles) within the pattern started only when the RSI formed a Lower High below the overbought level (<70.00).
So what do you think? Is Bitcoin still so undervalued at the moment, despite last week's surge, that it can even hit $140k? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Alikze »» FLOKI | Upward wave 5 scenario🔍 Technical analysis: Ascending wave 5 scenario - Ascending triangle corner pattern
- In the 1W timeframe, a zigzag correction was preceded by an inability to break through the supply zone.
- Zigzag modification has formed an ascending angle triangle pattern.
- According to the bullish structure and behavior, it can have another bullish cycle.
- Currently, it has left the corner of the ascending triangle and has faced selling pressure in the supply area.
- Therefore, it can break the supply zone after the pullback to the broken structure and move to the next supply zone.
- This rising log can be wave 5 and the last wave of the rise, which can rise at least as much as the previous wave (wave 3). Or to be able to grow as much as the previous log.
💎Therefore, according to the size of the previous log, which has grown by more than a thousand percent, this log can grow by almost 1000 percent from the floor before the growth modification.
⚠️ Note: If the bottom is touched before, the zigzag correction will be complicated and the analysis will be invalid and need to be re-checked. ⚠️
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BINANCE:FLOKIUSDT
Bearish reversal?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is rising towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could reverse to the 1st support which acts as an overlap support.
Pivot: 3,386.40
1st Support: 2,863.34
1st Resistance: 3,889.27
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Alikze »» ETH | Wave 3 or rising C scenario - 8H🔍 Technical analysis: Wave 3 or rising C scenario - 8H
- According to the analysis presented in the weekly time frame, after a short growth, it has entered a corrective phase up to the green box area, so we expect it to enter an upward phase up to the dynamic trigger area.
- It is moving in an ascending channel in the 8-hour timeframe.
- The 2062 range of wave B correction is over.
- After the demand in the range of 2062, a complete movement cycle in the form of 5 waves towards the ceiling of the growth channel has continued.
- A double top has been created in the area of the channel roof, which has entered a correction phase after that.
- The corrective phase has completed a 5-wave cycle to the origin of the movement of the 2310 range.
After that, it has a three-wave pattern up and a three-wave correction that can now enter the 3-of-3 microwaves.
- In the first step, this upward cycle can continue until the supply zone (the first red box), after which it can have a short correction.
💎After that, it is expected that the big wave 3 in the middle of the channel, after a temporary correction, will enter the next bullish phase to the second red box range.
💎Therefore, the second step of the movement can have the goals of 3200 to 3500.
⚠️ In addition, in case of touching the range of 2151, the bullish scenario in the 8H time frame will be invalidated and should be reviewed and updated again. ⚠️
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KUCOIN:ETHUSDT
DOGEUSD Its Parabolic Growth Channel targets minimum $3.500.Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) is having an excellent bullish run since our last buy signal (October 17, see chart below), hitting all targets in the process:
As the price broke above Resistance 2 as well, we now zoom out to the long-term charts again (1W time-frame) where Doge's historic trend is more clearly displayed. The underlying pattern that it may have gone unnoticed is a Parabolic Channel, which we call Doge's Parabolic Growth Channel (PGC).
This Channel encompasses all of Doge's Cycles and only broke once (to the upside) peaking during last Cycle's mania (April 2021). Furthermore, this week the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) will complete a cross above the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), forming the 1W Golden Cross, technically a very bullish pattern.
The last time this was formed was on the week of December 28 2020, right when the Bull Cycle's Parabolic Rally (green Rectangle) started. That reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension and as mentioned rose even further, breaking above the PGC. The 1.618 Fib is of high importance as this is where the January 01 2018 High of the first Cycle was priced.
At the same time, the 1W RSI is already on a Bullish Cross since the week of October 07 2024, which is exactly what happened again during the previous two Cycles, where it preceded the Golden Cross of the price.
As a result, we believe that Doge has started its Parabolic Rally, the final and most aggressive part of the Bull Cycle, and based on the previous 1.618 Fib peaks, we are expecting at least a $3.500 High.
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AAVEUSD at the top of the Channel Up. Going parabolic if broken.Aave (AAVEUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since Triple Bottom formation on the Bear Cycle Support Zone. This Channel has technically served as the Accumulation Phase of the Bull Cycle, a prolonged process that ends when such patterns break.
Technically the price is the closest to its top (Higher Highs trend-line) since the week of March 11 2024 and the fact that the 1W MACD has invalidated a Bearish Cross this high with the incredible rise since yesterday, is an early sign that the time to break above the Channel Up has come.
If it does, be ready to buy as the minimum technical Target would be the $670.00 ATH.
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BITCOIN made new ATH and the rally has only just begun!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) is marching towards our 88k short-term Target as we called on October 16 (see chart below):
As the U.S. elections have now been concluded with Trump's victory, we can now once more focus on the long-term horizon, particularly looking 1 year ahead.
Basically, the last time we looked at this pattern was back in August 14 2023 (see chart below), where we used the KSI indicator on the 3W time-frame, which has just made a Bullish Cross, to call the upcoming parabolic rally correctly:
This time we bring to you the last bullish signal of the upcoming multi-month Parabolic Rally, which is the 2W LMACD that is about to form a Bullish Cross. As you can see such a Cross was formed exactly on the November 08 2016 U.S. elections (Trump's 1st win), and a few months before the November 03 2020 elections. What followed was the most aggressive rally (green Rectangle area) of the Bull Phase (green parabolic channel) that started when the price broke above the 2W MA50 (blue trend-line).
As a result, we expect BTC to rise aggressively from here, entering the post-U.S. elections bullish phase that may very well exceed the $100k psychological barrier, as we've shown in previous analyses.
But what do you think? Will the new ATH today spark a full year of Bull for Bitcoin? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Flare Crypto Currency to buy. Long-term investmentFlare Crypto Currency is a long-term investment now that the strong monthly demand level at 0.0119 took control. Expecting a decent rally from this demand level.
Flare is an EVM-based layer 1 aiming to make blockchain more useful by giving developers decentralized access to high-integrity data from other chains and the internet. This enables new use cases and monetization models, while allowing dapps to serve multiple chains through a single deployment.
TROYUSD turned Parabolic. Buy on the next pull-back.Troy (TROYUSD) broke last week above the Lower Highs trend-line of the Accumulation Phase of the Bull Cycle and even though it failed to close the 1W candle above it, the current week started with extremely strong buying pressure that topped last week's High.
Even though we will need the closing above the Lower Highs at the end of the week, the current buying pressure confirmed that the trend has turned parabolic. It is technically similar to the January - February 2021 rally that turned parabolic and reached as high as the 1.786 Fibonacci extension.
Having formed at the same time a Bullish Cross on the 1W MACD, we expect a minor pull-back as on February 15 - 22 2021 that will allow for a better entry. Our Target is naturally the 1.786 Fib at 0.012000.
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Alikze »» CKB | Corrective wave AB=CD pattern🔍 Technical analysis: Corrective wave AB=CD pattern
- In the weekly time frame, after filling the FVG gap, it has faced demand.
- After filling the gap of FVG, this rising wave had a growth of more than 200%, which has again faced selling pressure in the supply area.
- Currently, according to the bearish guard, in case of inability and stabilization above the 0.012200 area, the corrective structure will extend to the PRZ-3 area.
💎 But if it encounters demand again in the first high potential area where there is a FVG gap, it can retest the supply area.
💎In addition, if there is a demand in the PRZ-2 area, it can be extended to the PRZ-3 area with the pullback to PRZ-1.
💎Therefore, one should wait for the demand and return wave in areas with high return potential.
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BINANCE:CKBUSDT
Alikze »» SUI | Descending channel - 4H🔍 Technical analysis: Descending channel - 4H
- It is moving in a descending channel in the 4-hour time frame.
- Currently, the supply area is facing sales pressure.
- According to the correction structure in the 4-hour time frame, if there is no ability and stabilization above the number 1.95, the correction will continue until the area of 1.56.
- The 1.56 range can have short-term targets of 1.66 and 1.75 if it meets demand.
- In addition, in case of selling pressure in the range of 1.75, the correction will extend to the green box.
💹 Support zones in the case of extension of the correction log: 1.30 - 1.23 - 1.13
💎Alternative scenario, if it can consolidate above 1.95, could have short-term targets of 2.14 and 2.34.
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BINANCE:SUIUSDT
BITCOIN fully supported targeting $170k after the ATH breaks.Exactly 3 months ago (August 05, see chart below) when the price was on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), having hit it for the first time since the week of March 12 2003, we claimed that this was the last stand for Bitcoin (BTCUSD) if the market wanted to maintain the Bull Cycle, as based on the previous 3 Cycles, it was the absolute supporting trend-line:
The 1W MA50 eventually held not once but twice and that gave way to a rally that last week tested the 73800 All Time High (ATH). That is incredibly bullish, especially only two days before the U.S. elections, as from the historic patterns we've shown you before, a Parabolic Rally has started after each election.
So according to our August comparison chart, if history is repeated, BTC is looking towards at least the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the ATH, which is roughly a little over $170k.
But what do you think? Are you expecting the ATH test to start a massive rally similar to all previous Cycles? And if so, is $170000 a realistic Target? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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