BITCOIN This week forms the bottom before it turns Parabolic.Bitcoin (BTCUSD) continues to repeat the 2014 - 2017 Cycle in great detail. So far besides the Bear Cycle Lower Highs that broke only after the Cycle bottom was priced, BTC has respected the replicated the two Accumulation phases above the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line), which is 2016 marked the last long-term buy opportunities before the market went on a Parabolic Rally in 2017.
As you can see, even the 1W RSI suggests that in relative terms we are in a pre-parabolic run pull-back similar to January 2017. There are high probabilities that this week is the one that forms the new bottom that will push the market to a continuous rally towards December 2025.
If the top is priced on the 7.0 Fibonacci extension from the Cycle bottom, as it did on December 2017, then we can expect to see at least $200k.
Buy what is your take on this? Do you think we are that close before a parabolic rally? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Cryptocurrencysignals
Falling towards 50% Fibonacci support?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 3,085.31
1st Support: 2,805.94
1st Resistance: 3,540.71
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ALTSEASON to $3 Trillion with BITCOIN at $200k??This is not the first time we make the comparison of the current Altcoin (Crypto Total Market Cap excluding top 10) Cycle with the 2014 - 2017 one. But it is the first time that we make this comparison, including Bitcoin's (BTCUSD) Cycles.
As you can see, there are striking similarities between the Alt Cycles:
a) Both bottom formations were in the form of a Cup pattern
b) A Pivot trend-line that turned from Resistance to Support
c) The MA50 (blue trend-line) was supporting once broken until the next Bear Cycle
d) A Bull Flag after the MA50 break-out found support on the MA50 and 0.382 Fib and started the Altseason (green Channel Up)
e) That Bull Flag started with a MACD Bearish Cross and ended on a Bullish Cross
It appears that we are now on the stage where Alts have the 1st consolidation of the Parabolic Rally. What's remarkable and the key difference between the two Cycles, is that this time BTC has diverged massively and made a new All Time High (ATH), while alts haven't.
Of course this is directly attributed to the Bitcoin ETF, which attracted enormous amounts of capital that pumped the asset beyond the technical restrictions of this model. This may be an indication however, that part of this capital may be diverted to Alts, once partial BTC profit taking takes place, as it has happened during every Altseason.
In any event, if the Cycle continues to replicate the 2017 rally, it should reach the -1.5 Fibonacci extension, which would translate to at least a $3 Trillion Altcoin Market Cap, while Bitcoin would be close to the $200k level! That may seem unrealistic in terms of market cap, but so did the levels during the 2020/21 and 2017 rallies. It all depends on whether Bitcoin can continues to attract outside capital with this pace, which will in turn grow interest on the rest of the crypto market and also on the rate of adoption (companies, consumer use of crypto).
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AVAXUSD Will the 1W MA50 hold and push the Cup & Handle higher?Avalanche (AVAXUSD) is about to complete a Cup and Handle (C&H) pattern on the 1W time-frame and currently the Handle part has found Support for 3 straight weeks on both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line).
This is also on the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the Cycle. Technically we should see in the coming weeks the start of the 2nd Bullish Leg of the Bull Cycle and if it follows the C&H dynamics, we can expect it to target the 2.0 Fibonacci (blue) extension at $240.00.
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FIL/USDT Local trend. Wedge. Price squeeze. 30 06 2024Logarithm. Time frame 1 day.
🟣 Local trend . Part of the secondary trend, horizontal channel zone with a step of 372% external channel /180% internal channel, in which a descending wedge is formed. Now there is a local price squeeze, at the support zone of the inner channel.
Also superimposed is a slightly modified Gann fan, to understand the dynamic support/resistance zones during trend development and the time of reaching the price range. Percentages to key support/resistance levels are shown in cases of exit/non-exit from this zone are shown.
Line chart (without market noise).
🔵 Main trend . Formation of a large pump bowl, price in the second phase, that is in a horizontal channel (accumulation zone).
FIL/USD Major trend. From a high of $237 -99% Published on 01/22/2023 (1.5 years ago).
All current. A set range has formed.
Follow the link and click play on the chart.
Any buying expensive / cheap in this range is acceptable from the position of not only the main, but also the secondary trend of price movement development. But, still set adequate targets from the position of the trend and time of development of the cycle. US.
Main trend (without market noise) of this American cryptocurrency for 06 2024
BITCOIN Cycle Top can be as high as $200kBitcoin (BTCUSD) has started 2025 on high volatility amidst geopolitical and economic news input. 2025 is the last year of this Bull Cycle, according to the Cycles Theory which for more than a decade has been very accurate at predicting Cycle Tops and Bottoms.
** LGC, MMB and Pi Cycle *
On today's analysis we present to you this view in more detail by displaying Bitcoin's Logarithmic Growth Channel (LGC) with the addition of the Mayer Multiple Bands (MMB) and the Pi Cycle trend-lines. From the MMB we use its extremes, the 3SD above (red trend-line), which is the Mayer Top and the 3SD below (black trend-line), which is the Mayer Bottom. From the Pi Cycle we use a tighter range, its top trend-line (orange) and bottom trend-line (green), which form a zone that typically serves as more of a 'Fair Value' before the Bear Cycle's extreme selling and Bull Cycle's extreme buying (Parabolic Rally).
** Current Cycle in 2025 **
As mentioned, BTC has entered the last year of its current Bull Cycle. Based on this cyclical pattern, the 3 previous Tops have been either on a November or December. As a result, we expect the new Cycle Top to start forming by November 2025. The last one was formed above the Pi Cycle Top (never hit the Mayer Top) and on the 2nd LGC Zone from the top.
This suggests that even if the price barely tests the bottom for the LGC 2nd Zone from the Top, by November 2025 we should be close to $200000. Technically the projected Peak Zone should be within the 180k - 200k range. That may still be below the Pi Cycle Top, so technically we can argue that it is a fair scenario to expect and not an overly optimistic.
Unrealistic or not, this is what 3 separate traditional long-term models suggest.
But what do you think? Is a $180-200k Top a realistic expectation within 2025? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Bullish bounce?BTC/USD is falling towards the pivot which acts as an overlap support and could bounce to the 1st resistance that has been identified as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 95,231.13
1st Support: 93,172.83
1st Resistance: 98,951.90
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Falling towards pullback support?Ethereum (ETH/USD) is falling towards the pivot which is a pullback support and could bounce to the 38.2% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 3,314.10
1st Support: 3,213.30
1st Resistance: 3,501.74
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
CARDANO Mega rally starting first to $3 then top expected at $5Last time we looked at Cardano (ADAUSD) we gave a confident medium-term buy signal (November 18 2024, see chart below):
Today, having seen a very strong closing to the year last week and especially since the price bounced off the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), we are making a long-term call towards the top of the Cycle.
Technically ADA's historic pattern is a Channel Up and if we draw its Fibonacci levels, the price is currently within the 0.5 - 0.618 range. That is exactly where it was during the same stage of the previous Cycle in January 2021. As the 0.5 Fib held, once it closed a 1W candle above the 0.618, the price skyrocketed to the 0.786 Channel Fib and tested the previous All Time High (ATH).
We can see the amazing symmetry between the Cycles on the 1W RSI fractals too. As a result, our next immediate Target for ADA is near the previous ATH at $3. Beyond that, we expect the Cycle to top at $5, which is marginally below the 1.236 Fibonacci extension, which was where the August 2021 Cycle Top was priced.
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BITCOIN New year, same thing..Bitcoin (BTCUSD) has just reclaimed the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) over the weekend and is so far successfully holding it below the price action, making it a Support.
The exact same price action took place in January last year (2024). In fact, as these 1D charts very vividly illustrate, the whole sequence from the September 06 2024 Low to today, is very similar to the sequence from the September 11 2023 Low to (so far) January 2024.
This incredible degree of symmetry is also extending to their 1D RSI and MACD fractals. The first formed Bearish Divergences under Lower Highs trend-lines, which when broken confirm the new rally, while the latter (MACD) was the early buy signal when it formed a Bullish Cross below the 0.00 mark.
If BTC continues to copy the January 2024 fractal, then we should be expecting a few more days of sideways price action, that will pave the way for the new (2nd) Rally Phase of the whole pattern. The 2nd rally peaked on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the September 11 2023 Low, so if the pattern replication continues, we may see a peak above $150k.
So do you think the early 2024 bullish break-out will be repeated? And if yes, are you expecting a peak as high as $150000? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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Potential bullish rise?Ethereum (ETH/USD) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 3,834.51
1st Support: 3,255.58
1st Resistance: 3,834.51
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Could the Bitcoin reverse from here?The price is rising towards the pivot which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse to the pullback support.
Pivot: 101,945.49
1st Support: 91,763.50
1st Resistance: 108,400.14
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
OPUSDT
Diamond Pattern and Price Movement:
This pattern, classified as a Diametric, signifies the completion of a corrective cycle and heralds the beginning of a new upward wave and bullish phase. The (g) wave has been identified as the final phase of this pattern.
Key Levels:
Optimal Entry Zone: Between $1.80 and $2.00.
Short-Term Price Targets:
Target 1: Around $3.30.
Target 2: Around $4.50.
Long-Term Price Target:
If the bullish structure is maintained, it is anticipated that the price may reach the $8.50 level within the next 250 days.
SUIUSD Still holding the 1D MA50 after 4 months! Bullish to $10.Sui (SUIUSD) has been trading within a Channel Up since the August 05 2024 market bottom. The last 10 days of December are seeing a vicious test of the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is so far holding as Support.
In fact the last time we had a 1D candle close below it, was 4 months ago (September 05 2024). With the 1D RSI making a bullish reversal and breaking above its MA (yellow trend-line) while the 1D MACD is about to make a Bullish Cross, both indicators in similar fashion as the bottoms of October and September 2024, we treat the current consolidation above the 1D MA50 as the strongest buy signal of the past 2 months.
The previous two Bullish Legs both rose by exactly +219.25%, so our Target is currently a little below that margin at $10.000.
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BITCOIN Dominance drop is about to trigger a massive Altseason!Bitcoin (BTCUSD) closed December on a marginally bearish 1M candle and is expected to start the 3rd year (2025) of the current Bull Cycle on strong bullish pressure.
As you can see on this chart, BTC Dominance (blue trend-line) has started to decline already since October 2024. That is when Bitcoin completed 36 months (1096 days) from the previous Cycle top (green candle).
This is a highly cyclical pattern as BTC Dominance during previous Cycles dropped every time Bitcoin completed 36 months from the previous All Time High (ATH). That was when the Altseason started, which is the most aggressive part of the Altcoin market.
Based on this chart we are about to see an accelerated drop on Bitcoin's dominance, with earnings and added capital being transferred to Altcoins, causing a new Altseason.
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SOLUSD charging for the 1D MA50. New rally started.Solana (SOLUSD) made a new 10-day High as it is rising aggressively today towards the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the first level of Resistance. We expect this rally to be the start of the new Bullish Leg of the 5-month Channel Up for three reasons.
Firstly, last week's Low was exactly on Support Zone 2, which is the pivot level of the October 29 High. We've had the same bounce on Support Zone 1 when the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Up started on September 06 2024.
Secondly, the December Low almost tested the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) before rebounding, which is the long-term Support. This is now exactly on the bottom of the Channel Up.
Thirdly, the December 22 Low also made the 1D RSI rebound on the oversold barrier (30.00). As you can see, every time the RSI touched this oversold level since April 13 2024, it was a strong buy signal to at least the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level.
As a result, our short-term Target 1 is $242.00 (the 0.786 Fib). Beyond that, if the price breaks above Resistance 1 (265.00), we will buy the bullish break-out and target the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up at $380 (Target 2). As you can see, that would be a +119% rise from the December Low, similar to the % rise of the first Bullish Leg.
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DOGEUSD Don't let this consolidation discourage you.Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) has been trading sideways for the past 10 days, ever since the December 20 Low, following the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) bearish break-out from the December 08 High. That was a -45% decline and naturally the current inability to reclaim those levels has many investors worried.
Technically however, this is nothing more than a standard Accumulation Phase, where investors tend to take their time and buy DOGE below the 1D MA50 following a rally's correction. During this Bull Cycle, we have already seen two such phases and the one most common to the current one is the one exactly one year ago following the December 10 2023 High.
As you can see both of those Highs were formed after a 1D Golden Cross. The January - February 2024 Accumulation Phase took place also after the 1D RSI bottomed on the 34.00 level. After this 2-month consolidation, the price started the Parabolic Rally sequence that peaked on the 3.0 Fibonacci extension.
If the pattern continues to be repeated, we are looking at a $1.500 Target at least by March - April 2025.
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BITCOIN What lies ahead after this correction? The DXY x-factor.Bitcoin (BTCUS) is having in the past 2 weeks the technical correction is should based on the previous Bull Cycle. As you can see, since the U.S. elections it has rallied aggressively past its previous All Time High (ATH), same way it did in December 2020.
** Bitcoin and Doge during 2020 **
At the same time, the alt coin market was mostly consolidating in preparation of a bullish break-out. A representative example of such behavior would be Dogecoin (DOGEUSD) as seen in orange on this chart, which during BTC's December 2020 rally, it was consolidating/ pulling-back (green circle) from an initial rally. However it remained significantly below its previous ATH, the same way it is now.
** The DXY decline sparking crypto rallies **
Notice the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), displayed by the green trend-line on this chart. Right now it is has been rallying in the past three months, at the same time as Bitcoin has. In the previous Cycle in 2020, it hit a top during the COVID March 2020 market crash and with the smashing of the Interest Rates, it started a Channel Down decline that backed perfectly Bitcoin's rally. We has the exact same DXY-backed rally during Bitcoin's 2017 Bull Cycle.
As a result, we are seeing a paradox on the current Cycle: BTC entering its most aggressive phase (Parabolic Rally) of the Bull Cycle and rallying despite DXY rising. That is attributed of course to a large extent to the huge ETF inflows (something that wasn't present in 2020).
** Overdue DXY decline? **
This leads us to believe that an overdue decline on the DXY, just as the Fed has initiated a new cut Cycle (as they did during the COVID crash), will push Bitcoin and especially the alts market, including Doge, to a new rally. Of course DXY's decline may not be as aggressive this time, as the stimulus shouldn't be that high (especially with Powell's recent remarks on a 2 rate cut expectation in 2025 instead of the previous projection of 4), but it could be enough to spark the final BTC rally of the Bull Cycle and the much anticipated Altseason.
So do you think the market will rally once more on a potential 'delayed' DXY drop? Feel free to let us know in the comments section below!
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ALTSEASON Merry Christmas with the biggest Buy Signal out there!First let's start this post by wishing Merry Christmas to the whole community!
It's yet again the total crypto market cap (excluding the top 10 tokens) that we are looking at as this time we have the strongest possible buy signal on the 1M chart! The 1M MA20 (blue trend-line) has completed a cross above the 1M MA50 (orange trend-line). The last time this happened was during the previous Bull Cycle on the most symmetric time possible, December 2020. In the meantime, the 1M CCI was almost at the same level (around 180.00).
This sense of highly cyclical repetition, indicates that the following months could be as aggressive as January - May 2021 for the market, when it topped on the 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the Cycle bottom. If that feat is repeated, we look towards a 1.65 Trillion market cap in 2025. We can't be more bullish for an upcoming Altseason than that!
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Alikze »» DYDX | Ready to break the congestion🔍 Technical analysis: Ready to break the congestion - 1W
📣 BINANCE:DYDXUSDT is in a consolidation on the weekly timeframe.
🟢 In the previous uptrend, it moved to the neckline, after which it faced selling pressure.
🟢 At present, the recent correction could be a pullback to the swing, and in the green box area, it could meet demand, break out of the consolidation and continue its growth to the next supply area.
🟢 In the event of any pullback to the next supply area, the bullish rally could continue to the next supply area.
💎 In addition, any correction should not be sharp and abrupt, and if the correction appears as a multi-wave zigzag, it can continue its growth to the next supply area.
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