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BTC Market Thesis – February 20, 2025Current Market Overview Current Price: $97,632 Open Position: $95,917.6 Decision: HOLD_BUY – The market is showing bullish momentum, suggesting further upside potential. Stop Loss: $95,000 Take Profit: $99,600 Confidence Level: 80% Technical & Market Indicators RSI (1h): Indicates bullish momentum, suggesting buyers are gaining control. MACD: Showing a moderate upward slope, signaling potential for further price appreciation. CME Options Data: Put/Call Ratio: 0.9 – slightly bullish as call options dominate. Open Interest: Moderate, meaning traders are engaged but not at extreme levels. Binance Perpetuals: Funding Rate: 0.01 – Market leaning slightly towards longs. Open Interest: 78,892 BTC, indicating a healthy level of market participation. Profit Ratio Today: 1.20 – Indicates that traders who entered today are mostly in profit, reinforcing positive sentiment. Possible Scenarios & Probability 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario (60% Probability) 📈 BTC breaks above $98,000 and reaches $99,600 Strong bullish sentiment pushes BTC past key resistance levels. RSI & MACD confirm continued upward momentum. Positive funding rate and moderate OI support a sustained uptrend. Institutional traders (CME data) continue to favor long positions. 2️⃣ Neutral Scenario (25% Probability) 🔄 BTC consolidates between $96,500 – $98,000 Some profit-taking slows the rally, but support at $96,500 holds. MACD remains positive but shows weakening momentum. Open Interest suggests indecision, with traders waiting for further signals. 3️⃣ Bearish Scenario (15% Probability) 📉 BTC drops below $96,500 and tests $95,000 Unexpected negative news or macroeconomic factors trigger a sell-off. RSI becomes overbought, leading to short-term correction. A decline in Open Interest suggests traders are closing positions. Final Takeaway Primary Strategy: Hold and monitor resistance at $98,000. Risk Management: A stop loss at $95,000 protects against unexpected downturns. Trigger to Sell: If BTC struggles at GETTEX:98K with weakening momentum, a short-term exit may be considered. Trigger to Buy More: A clean break above GETTEX:98K with strong volume confirms continuation to $99,600+.
by titankarma
Bitcoin Dominance Analysis Channel Rejection and Its Impact Bitcoin Dominance is currently trading within a well-defined downward channel, indicating a consistent decline over time. Recently, dominance attempted to break below the channel but failed, resulting in a re-entry back into the channel. This failed breakdown suggests that the bearish momentum is weakening, at least temporarily. A declining Bitcoin dominance typically signals a potential bullish phase for altcoins, as market capital moves away from Bitcoin into alternative cryptocurrencies. However, in this scenario, the downward movement is relatively slow, confined within the channel, which explains the lack of a strong recovery in the altcoin market. For a more significant altcoin rally, we need to see a clear breakdown of this channel, accompanied by a sharper decline in dominance. A rapid drop would likely trigger stronger buying activity in altcoins, providing better opportunities for traders. It's crucial to monitor Bitcoin dominance closely, as its next move will provide key insights into potential market shifts. Stay alert and adjust your trading strategy accordingly. If you find these market insights helpful and want to stay updated with more trade setups and detailed analysis and join my community,feel free to ping me.
CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D
by wolfchemist
DEVIATON INJIt looks like we have a deviation below the demand zone and the $13.8 support, which could present a buying opportunity. I’m waiting to see if the price finds support around $14.4. If the price drops below $14 and stays there for an extended period, I’ll reassess the trade, as we could see another leg down toward the $8-$11 zone, where stronger support is likely. For now, the weekly oscillators look decent—Stoch RSI is close to a bullish cross, and RSI has found support at 40.
BINANCE:INJUSDLong
by BOT721
2
Late night thoughts on XRPJust sharing some insights on what I have been seeing. I have been getting a feeling XRP can pop at any moment. Ideally I wanna see XRP reach AT LEAST $5 this market cycle. But we will see what happens! Forex, Crypto and Futures Trading Risk Disclosure: The National Futures Association (NFA) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the regulatory agencies for the forex and futures markets in the United States, require that customers be informed about potential risks in trading these markets. If you do not fully understand the risks, please seek advice from an independent financial advisor before engaging in trading. Trading forex and futures on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to trade, you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. There is a possibility of losing some or all of your initial investment, and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. Be aware of the risks associated with leveraged trading and seek professional advice if necessary. BDRipTrades Market Opinions (also applies to BDelCiel and Aligned & Wealthy LLC): Any opinions, news, research, analysis, prices, or other information contained in my content (including live streams, videos, and posts) are provided as general market commentary only and do not constitute investment advice. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including but not limited to, any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. Accuracy of Information: The content I provide is subject to change at any time without notice and is intended solely for educational and informational purposes. While I strive for accuracy, I do not guarantee the completeness or reliability of any information. I am not responsible for any losses incurred due to reliance on any information shared through my platforms. Government-Required Risk Disclaimer and Disclosure Statement: CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. Performance results discussed in my content are hypothetical and subject to limitations. There are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading strategy. One of the limitations of hypothetical trading results is that they do not account for real-world financial risk. Furthermore, past performance of any trading system or strategy does not guarantee future results. General Trading Disclaimer: Trading in futures, forex, and other leveraged products involves substantial risk and is not appropriate for all investors. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose. I do not provide buy/sell signals, financial advice, or investment recommendations. Any decisions you make based on my content are solely your responsibility. By engaging with my content, including live streams, videos, educational materials, and any communication through my platforms, you acknowledge and accept that all trading decisions you make are at your own risk. BDRipTrades, BDelCiel, and Aligned & Wealthy LLC cannot and will not be held responsible for any trading losses you may incur.
COINBASE:XRPUSD
by BDripTradess
Bitcoin Intraday Thesis – February 10, 2025Market Context & Decision Current BTC price: $97,336 Position: HOLD BUY (Entry: $95,414) Target: $98,500 📈 | Stop-loss: $94,800 Key Insights 🔹 Bullish Sentiment – Financial data and historical trends suggest strong upward momentum. 🔹 Technical Indicators – Mixed signals, with BTC showing short-term overbought conditions, requiring caution. 🔹 Derivatives Data – Funding Rate: -0.02% (Slight negative bias, but not strongly bearish). Open Interest: 75,758 BTC (Healthy market activity). Price Expectations & Strategy 📊 Scenario 1: Bullish Breakout (80% Confidence) BTC pushes towards $98,500 if bullish sentiment continues. Strong historical & financial backing supports the upward move. 📊 Scenario 2: Short-Term Correction If BTC fails to break GETTEX:98K , overbought conditions may trigger a pullback. Support at $96K-$95K remains key for continued bullish structure. Conclusion HOLD BUY remains the optimal strategy. BTC likely to test $98,500, but traders should monitor support levels in case of volatility. Keep an eye on funding rates & open interest for further confirmation. 🚀 Will Bitcoin reach $98,500 or face a pullback? Let’s discuss! 👇
by titankarma
#SPELLUSDT continuation of the downtrend📉 SHORT BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P from $0.0009866 🛡 Stop Loss: $0.0010430 ⏱ 1H Timeframe ✅ Overview: ➡️ BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P remains in a downtrend, forming lower highs and lower lows. The price failed to hold above $0.0010000, signaling weak buying momentum. ➡️ POC at $0.0010250 suggests that major volume accumulation is above the current price, reinforcing the bearish outlook. ➡️ If the price stays below $0.0009866, a continuation towards $0.0009485 and $0.0008901 is expected. ➡️ Volume remains moderate, indicating declining demand and a likely continuation of the downtrend. ⚡ Plan: 📉 Bearish Scenario: ➡️ Enter SHORT from $0.0009866 if price confirms rejection at resistance. ➡️ Risk management with Stop-Loss at $0.0010430, above key resistance. 🎯 TP Targets: 💎 TP1: $0.0009485 — first profit-taking level. 🔥 TP2: $0.0008901 — major support zone. 🚀 BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P Expecting a continuation of the downtrend! 📢 BYBIT:SPELLUSDT.P remains under selling pressure. If the price holds below $0.0009866, further downside movement towards $0.0009485 and then $0.0008901 is expected. 📢 However, if the price reclaims $0.0010430, the bearish scenario could be invalidated, leading to a potential upward correction.
Short
by MoriartyTrading
TIA SHORT/LONGTIA has dropped below $3.7, the lower boundary of its range, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. If the price manages to reclaim $3.7, it would confirm a major fakeout, potentially pushing the price back up to $5-$6. In the short term, we might see a small bounce toward the 21 EMA on the daily timeframe, accompanied by a bullish cross on the Stoch RSI. After that, another pullback could happen, setting up a second bullish cross on the Stoch RSI—which, historically, has often led to stronger upward moves.
Long
by BOT721
ATOM WEEKLY PART I The ATOM weekly chart is exciting. Every time the Stoch RSI oscillator is about to make a bullish cross but gets rejected, the price drops by at least 40%—this has happened the last two times. However, the first time this fake cross occurred, the price increased by 68% before dropping by 74%. Considering that on February 3, we saw a high-volume rejection from $3.7 (a 34% drop), I believe there is still room for the price to go lower, possibly even below $3.7. If you flip the chart, it looks like it could reach around $3.2.
by BOT721
2
Thesis: Bitcoin Intraday Trade StrategyTrade Setup Outcome: Open Long Entry Price: $97,070 Stop Loss: $96,000 Take Profit: $100,000 Confidence Level: 75% Market Context & Justification 🔹 Bullish Sentiment & Long-Short Ratio – Positive trader sentiment and a 1.2 buy/sell ratio on Binance Perpetuals suggest more long positions entering the market. 🔹 Technical Indicators – Mixed signals: RSI: Neutral (no clear overbought/oversold signals). MACD: Negative on 1h and 15m, but showing signs of recovery on the daily timeframe. 🔹 Support & Resistance Levels Price is near support, increasing the likelihood of a bounce. A breakout above $98,869 could fuel further upside toward the take-profit level at $100,000. 🔹 Options & Liquidity Impact CME Max Pain Price at $95,000 may act as a pullback zone if BTC faces short-term selling pressure. Large liquidation clusters at $95,000 could trigger stops if downside volatility increases. 🔹 Funding & Open Interest Data Funding Rate: Slightly positive at 0.02%, indicating mild bullish positioning. Open Interest: 76,232 BTC, showing active participation in the market. Conclusion Despite mixed technicals, strong sentiment and positioning data support a long entry at $97,070, with a stop loss at $96,000 to mitigate downside risk. If resistance at $98,869 is broken, BTC has a high probability of reaching $100,000. However, traders should monitor liquidation clusters and options expiry effects for potential volatility.
Long
by titankarma
SHIBUSDT Price Action - Liquidity & Order Block AnalysisPremium Zone Rejection: Price is approaching a FVG (Fair Value Gap), which could act as a resistance zone. If rejection occurs, smart money may be engineering liquidity to take out lower levels. Liquidity Levels to Watch: Feb 3 High (0.000016980): A significant level where liquidity is resting. A potential raid could occur if price breaks structure to the upside. Feb 2 Low (0.000013080): A key downside liquidity pool where price may seek orders. Feb 3 Low (0.000011590): The ultimate downside draw on liquidity if price continues distributing lower. Possible Scenarios: Bullish Case: A clean break and hold above 0.000015764 could lead to a liquidity grab towards the Feb 3 High. Bearish Case: Failure to reclaim the fair value gap could send SHIB lower to test 0.000013080, possibly even targeting the Feb 3 Low.
Short
by StockSurgeonX
Bitcoin Game Plan - BTC PREDICTIONHello folks, it's time to update the BTC game plan. My previous Bitcoin game plan worked precisely. The timing and price levels were 100% accurate, and as expected, we saw a new all-time high (ATH). I hope you managed to make some profits! I’ve attached the previous BTC game plan below—feel free to give it a look. New Game Plan: Bitcoin has set a new ATH, but it seems we’ve encountered significant selling pressure at that level, and we couldn’t close above it. This indicates Bitcoin doesn’t yet have enough liquidity to expand higher. From this perspective, I expect the price to retrace slightly, grab some liquidity from the buy side, and then continue its upward journey. Scenario 1: Price grabs the lows below and hits the purple line (Range High) before bouncing to a new high. (Less likely) Scenario 2: (Marked on the chart) Price grabs the lows completely and retraces to the blue bullish trendline, bouncing from there. We might even create a deviation below the blue line, trapping bears who aggressively short after a trendline break, and bounce from the green zone marked just below the blue line. (This is my preferred scenario.) Scenario 3: Price retraces further to grab all the way down to the lows and bounces from the black trendline we previously broke. I’m sharing all three potential scenarios for clarity. Also, with a pro-crypto president currently in office, any significant bullish news could send Bitcoin skyrocketing. Keep this in mind. I remain overall bullish on Bitcoin. I firmly believe we haven’t seen the top yet. Despite the panic and sell-off from some gurus on X and TradingView who claim we’ve topped, I personally think we’re not even close to the peak.
Long
by UA_CAPITAL
3