BITCOIN (BTCUSD) Bearish Confirmation? Oops!Like Ive mentioned in my previous BTC analysis, that $61,500 was critical zone and if it drops below that level, we will see further downward movement and this is exactly how it turned out.
The SHORT position targets are marked on the chart using the Risological swing trader.
Stay safe and all the best.
Cryptolevels
BTC to rebound - bullish potential for the next 24 hours The price of Bitcoin fell more than 6 percent to $59,290 over the past 24 hours, trading as low as $58,564 over this period, Trading View’s Bitcoin chart shows.
Yet, a strong sun will shine over Bitcoin in the next 24 hours, signaling bullish market conditions. ☀️
“Today's drop is intriguing and presents a potential opportunity for those looking to capitalize on a tactical rally. Entering at $59,000 with a tight stop at $58,000 might seem overly cautious to some, but tactical opportunities like this are rare in a market lacking a clear bullish trend,” the crypto intelligence firm 10xResearch said in its daily note.
The number of Bitcoin millionaires increased by 111 percent last year and exceeded 85,000 people, Henley & Partners annual Crypto Wealth Report 2024 shows. Eleven persons hold more than $1 billion in Bitcoin. The CEO of MicroStrategy Michael Saylor, the CEO of Coinbase Brian Armstrong and Binance’s founder, currently serving a prison term in the US for money laundering violations, Changpeng Zhao (CZ) are part of this exclusive club.
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BITCOIN UPDATE - NOT Yet BullishHello guys,
Current BTC position: SHORT
Sorry, I have been busy trading the Indian stocks and options and not trading a lot of Crypto after the recent WazirX exchange Hack!
On 4H time frame the BTC is still not in the bullish zone.
Bullish confirmation is only above the price $62,000
Support and resistance levels have been marked on the chart for your reference.
$DADDY forecast (part 1) “LateAtNight on bed looking at charts”"IF" $DADDY is really going to the moon we can expect something like this.
> More than likely we can expect the daily low getting cooked with a wick, but no body closure. (0.04831)
> After the low gets cooked price can trade back into the previous range. (Yes, "can"we don't assume or hope; we trade what we see, not what we think. Based on this being a HTF long-term forecast, anything is possible. I am charting what I see as likely to occur when price approaches these areas.)
(These price tags indicate my personal expectations for possible turn arounds/ targets in price.)
> We want to see price close above the daily fractal high, located at (0.07449) for a potential pullback and then continuation to the upside.
> (0.16529) can have a larger pullback than what l drew, but I can rather see a smaller pullback to then head to the
(0.19585) area and then for price to push back to the (0.12458) “area” and then trade higher. (note: price can go a little bit lower than (0.12458) before trading higher back to those highs, to eventually violate them.
- ChartMarkup done on mobile phone.
August 22nd, 2024
NOTUSDT ( INSIDE DESCENDING CHANNEL ) (4H)NOTUSDT
HELLO TRADERS
Tendency , the price inside two turning level at 0.013 & 0.015 .
TURNING LEVEL (1) : the price of this level at 0.015 , so if the price breaking this level reach a resistance level (1) .
TURNING LEVEL (2) : the price of this level at 0.013 , so if the price breaking this level reach a support level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (1) : this level around 0.017 , for reach this resistance level the price need breaking a turning level (1) .
RESISTANCE LEVEL (2) : around 0.020, for reach this level it will be breaking by open 4h or 1h candle above resistance level (1)
SUPPORT LEVEL (1) : this level around 0.009, for reach this support level the price need breaking a turning level (2) .
SUPPORT LEVEL (2) : support level at 0.005 , for reach this level will be breaking by open 4h candle below support level (1) .
CORRECTIVE LEVEL : currently price 0.1353 , have two scenario , first corrective 0.15, before dropping to touch a 0.13 , then 0.009, second corrective 0.013 to reach a 0.015 , then breaking this level reach a resistance level (1).
TARGET LEVEL :
RESISTANCE LEVEL : 0.017 , 0.020 ,
SUPPORT LEVEL : 0.009 , 0.005 .
THE BREAK OF NEIROETH - NEIRONEIRO/USDT shows the low time frame possibility for new volume which can affect the price for an uptrend. ( depend all on high chance) There are no guarantees in the markets.
The new increase volume updates always start with interest if there is a confirmation to follow and if there is a building with a hold for a time.
90% of coins this time are not building coins. Some % also show a start fake trend and return to where it started. time frame confirmation + high levels building is important for a healthy coin.
NEIRO has the possibility to break.
BENDOG/USDT GOING FOR THE NEXT BREAKBENDOG/USDT shows the low time frame possibility for new volume which can affect the price for an uptrend. ( depend all on high chance) There are no guarantees in the markets.
The new increase volume updates always start with interest if there is a confirmation to follow and if there is a building with a hold for a time.
90% of coins this time are not building coins. Some % also show a start fake trend and return to where it started. time frame confirmation + high levels building is important for a healthy coin.
There is a good chance for a break, the chart shows 3the possible break, which can affect over 50%, the coming time frame we should follow for exact data.
The first focus target is
BTC scalp - August scalping journey trade Nr. 2 Trying this risky setup on BTC after 30min FVG got tagged and we are at the 3D VAH. Aiming for the 3D VWAP but please recognise the risk here.
Break up of the setup 👇
30-Minute Fair Value Gap (FVG):
The 30-minute Fair Value Gap (FVG) is a key level identified on the chart. This gap indicates an area where the price moved rapidly without much trading in between, creating a potential zone for price to revisit and balance out the prior inefficiency.
3-Day Value Area High (3D VAH):
The current price is at the 3-Day Value Area High (3D VAH). This is a significant point derived from volume profile analysis over a three-day period, indicating the upper boundary of the price range where the majority of trading volume occurred.
Price Action and RSI:
The price has shown a recovery from a recent low, moving upwards to tag the 30-minute FVG. The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is displayed at the bottom, providing insight into potential overbought or oversold conditions.
Trading Strategy:
Entry Point:
The entry is based on the price revisiting the 30-minute FVG, an area often revisited for price correction and liquidity purposes.
Target:
The primary target for this setup is the 3-Day VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price). The 3D VWAP is a dynamic indicator representing the average price of the asset over the last three days, adjusted by volume. It is a key level where the price is likely to find support or resistance.
Going to take profits on the way down and moving my stop loss to break even.
Considering the high-risk nature of this trade, appropriate position sizing is essential. Avoid over-leveraging and ensure that the potential loss is within your risk tolerance.
TOTAL3 - Bulls taking a napTOTAL3 began forming a descending parallel channel (Bull Flag) on March 31 and has been trading within it.
We recently had the third touch at the top of the channel, but it failed to break, showing signs of exhaustion indicating a greater probability of decline in the short term.
I will continue to monitor, but I only believe in all-time highs for altcoins when this channel is broken, but I wouldn't be surprised if we visit 450-480B before that happens.
Black Swan Incoming (Part 2)The series continues as Bitcoin fails to invalidate my thesis. This is most likely the start of the crash rather than the end. The first diagonal support comes in at 45-48k.
Check out Part 1 above first.
The Topping Fractal Strikes Again
The entire move is orchestrated time and time again. You can see from Part 1 that 7-10 year wallets shifted massive amounts of Bitcoin right when we get this same topping pattern appearing. Coincidence? I think not. This is the third time it's happened now.
You can see from the chart above we failed to break retracement levels.
Chainlink Fractal
What you are currently seeing above is REAL, it is happening. I thought about this possibly happening when I was actively trading this fractal back in 2023.
This is the Chainlink fractal from last cycle overlaid to this current cycle.
I traded this fractal back in 2023 and when I overlaid and saw that the Covid crash lined up with my Fib time, I thought, is it possible we get a crash in August 2024?
I was going over this possibility in 2023! Mind-blowing. If the fractal plays out, that means that the bottom is basically in for LINK and the bull market starts now, with a top in September 2025. Anyways, I will post a different TA on LINK.
The Million Dollar Question
Is the double bottom in or not? I have wrestled with this question for months, over a year maybe. While all other analysts and everyone else is convinced that the double bottom is in, I have never been 100% sold on it.
What do I mean? Well, since the first Bitcoin cycle, we have formed a double bottom before the bull market starts.
As you can see, we always form a double bottom. If we repeat history, that means that Bitcoin will retest the 20k area.
Everyone is convinced that this is the double bottom, but I have never been sold on this theory, especially when we have a CME GAP at 21k!
Mayer Multiple Bands
We can see that the last band is at 26k. For now, the worst case would be that price point.
USDT Dominance Chart
I was watching this closely. We were forming an ascending channel for a while. Bullish for USDT dominance means bad for the market. What is interesting is that we hit the same level in March 2022.
Very interesting.
Hash Ribbon First Failure?
Will the hash ribbon fail completely this time? Last time it fired off a buy signal, it dumped 17% before going on a massive multi-month rally. We are currently down 29% since its buy.
Fear and Greed
Conclusion
"IF" we even get a bull market, it will most likely start in 2025.
We need to get interest rates under 2.5% at least. We have never had a bull market with rates so high. First cycle: 0%, second: 0.5-2.5%, and third cycle: 0%.
Ethereum 2nd Test on our demand zoneEthereum decided not to continue with the trend but to conduct a second test before the rally. This pattern is very natural when the market breaks a channel and seeks equilibrium points in demand zones.
Our plan remains in place. Remember that markets need to make pauses or retests before taking action. Additionally, we must consider that markets, in general, have been bearish—we are in a bear market. However, the points of interest I have marked are based on historical prices and significant liquidity, so we can expect aggressive movements once the price reaches the indicated zones.
Thank you for your support, and don't fear these bear markets; on the contrary, we should average in and take advantage of the opportunities they offer us.
Regards
Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Crypto Markets Rattled
Federal Reserve officials signaled the possibility of a September rate cut during their July meeting: But crypto prices pulled back after Iran pledged it would retaliate against Israel for assassinating Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil.
Donald Trump expressed strong support for cryptocurrency at the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville: Trump pledged to set up a strategic bitcoin reserve, stop the US from selling its bitcoin, and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler if he gets re-elected.
Cantor Fitzgerald CEO Howard Lutnick announced the firm's plan to establish a Bitcoin financing business with an initial $2 billion investment: The initiative aims to provide leverage to bitcoin investors and strengthen the cryptocurrency ecosystem.
The nine US spot Ethereum ETFs saw $98.29 million in outflows on Monday, extending their negative flow streak: BlackRock’s ETHA and Fidelity FETH led the inflows, while Grayscale Ethereum Trust faced significant outflows.
The SEC is looking to amend its complaint against Binance, which could delay a court ruling on the security status of specific tokens: This move involves third-party crypto asset securities and adheres to a court directive for further proceedings.
Fed Signals Possible Rate Cuts, but Middle East Tensions Rattle Crypto Markets
Federal Reserve officials at their July meeting on Wednesday opted to keep interest rates unchanged at 5.25%-5%, after the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, a key inflation measure, increased by only 0.1% in June. This brought the year-over-year rise to 2.5%, down from 2.6% in May, moving closer to the Fed’s 2% inflation target.
Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell for the first time hinted at the possibility of cutting rates in September, saying the move is “on the table” if the US continues to make progress on inflation. That would mark the first time the Fed has cut rates in four years.
The announcement did not appear to have much impact on cryptocurrency prices. On Wednesday, hitcoin dropped about 2%, below $65,000, while ether dropped more than 1%, hovering above $3,200. The negative price action came after a New York Times report indicated that Iran will take retaliatory action against Israel after Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran.
🪙 Topic of the Week: What Are Stablecoins?
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