BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection
In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior.
---
Historical Context: Previous Cycles
3rd Halving – May 11, 2020
Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months:
- 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000.
- This was followed by a significant correction.
- 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections.
Cycle Completion – Price Reversion
By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase.
---
Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024
We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle :
- Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event.
- If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect:
- A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K.
- A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase.
---
Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving)
Using the same temporal framework:
- By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K.
- This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion .
- It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion.
---
The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic
- Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent :
- Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving .
- Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving.
- These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles .
---
Final Thoughts
This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026.
Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain .
What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
Cryptomarket
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #67👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s move on to the analysis of Bitcoin and key crypto indicators. In this analysis, as usual, I want to review the New York futures session triggers for you.
✔️ Yesterday, the price was rejected from the 85,550 area, and today could be a sensitive and important day for the market.
⏳ 1-Hour Timeframe
In the 1-hour timeframe, I mentioned yesterday that the 85,126 trigger had been activated and if the price pulled back to this area and broke above 85,550, we could witness a bullish move and the start of an upward wave. But that didn’t happen—the price was rejected from the 85,550 high and started moving downward.
👀 Currently, with the price stabilizing below the 85,126 area, selling volume has entered the market, and the price is moving down. The last candle closed below the 84,363 area, and the RSI has entered the oversold zone. If the move continues, the price could experience a bearish leg and move down to 83,233.
🔽 In that case, a break below the 83,233 area could be a good short position trigger, as it would give us confirmation of a trend reversal. But if the move doesn’t continue, this level could turn out to be a fake-out, and the price might head back toward the 85,550 high.
🎲 So today, you can enter a short position with a break of 83,233, and a long position with a break of 85,550. Pay attention to volume and RSI, as they can provide many confirmations for the next price trend.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let’s look at Bitcoin dominance. Yesterday, dominance dropped another leg and broke the 63.76 low, but now it has returned to this area and is stabilizing above it.
📈 For a bullish confirmation, dominance needs to stabilize above the 64.12 area, and for a bearish one, it needs to stabilize below 63.12.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Now for the Total2 analysis. This index was rejected from the 965 area yesterday and is now stabilizing below 954. If the bearish momentum continues, the next support level that could hold the price is 932.
🔼 To turn bullish, a break above 965 is required, with the main trigger being 980.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Let’s look at Tether dominance. Yesterday, it made an upward move and was supported at the 5.44 level. It has now reached 5.52.
✨ If 5.52 is broken, we’ll have confirmation of a bullish trend in dominance. If 5.44 is broken instead, we could anticipate a bearish move and potentially a break of 5.39.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
Ethereum’s Last Chance: Let Jesus Take The WheelEthereum’s price action over the course of this crypto bull run, and especially since the beginning of this year, 2025, has been nothing short of horrendous. It’s failed to hold almost every single important level that it needed to, to be able to keep pushing higher. This has caused almost all crypto investors and altcoin traders to pull their investments out, and drive the price even lower. At its current point, altcoin traders have lost all but 100% of the confidence they once had in it, and to retail investors, this is basically toxic waste once they see the losses that have been taken, it’s driving them away en masse.
With that being said, this is ETH’s final stand, it’s time to either show out, or go home with nothing to show for itself. It’s at a very critical support level right now, and if it breaks down below this, the trade will be cancelled. It’s just finished completing the ‘Jesus Take The Wheel’ pattern on the weekly & MONTHLY. This is an extremely high probability pattern, and could cause a blow-off top for Ethereum.
We also see that we got a Wykoff Pattern here, with the last one that we got around the $2k level being a fake out. The only other times it has printed aside from the last fake out, it has been the start of a bull run. ETH now has 6 weeks in total, or about 4 more weeks from now to start recovering old levels, and taking off to the moon.
I drew a bar pattern on the chart that I took from its original bullish pattern from the start of the 2013 bull run. I believe we’ll have a shortened cycle, and due to not having much time left to complete the bull run during this 4-year cycle, that’s all we will get. Thankfully, the price has been beaten down so much, that getting in now, will offer 1000% gains, in just about 6 months. This will be one of the most incredible feats in all of crypto.
Fear is at an all time high, and ETH has been teasing everyone with a bull run for months and even years now. We haven’t seen an all time high since 2021. Most investors will suffer from boredom exhaustion as well, and with the stock market also sinking, we could see a huge push once we recover some levels, for the masses to finally come into the market via Ethereum ETF’s, so they don’t have to actually risk any money moving crypto around. The boomers and traditional investors with stock accounts will be free to throw cash at these ETF’s and that’s what will give us our final pumps past all time highs, once the crypto traders all get back into the market, and get us to new ATH’s in the first place, and help us recover key levels.
One thing is clear: ETH needs to stop trying so hard to control its environment, it’s time to just let Jesus Take The Wheel 🚀
TradeCityPro | Bitcoin Daily Analysis #66👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
Let’s dive into the analysis of Bitcoin and major crypto indices. As usual, I’m going to review the New York futures session triggers for you in this analysis.
⌛️ 1-Hour Timeframe
Yesterday, the 85126 trigger was activated, but the price hasn’t started its move yet and is still ranging above this level. As I previously mentioned, this trigger is an early entry trigger, and the main trigger for a long position is the breakout of the 85550 level.
✔️ So if you haven’t opened a position on the early trigger, don’t worry, because the main trigger hasn’t been activated yet. If the price moves upward, you can still open a position on the breakout of this main trigger.
Therefore, our long position trigger for today is the 85550 level, and breaking this level could start a new bullish wave.
📊 Make sure to keep an eye on the volume. If the volume increases simultaneously with the price approaching 85550, it would be a positive sign for the bullish trend. Entry of RSI into the overbought zone is another confirmation that could bring bullish momentum.
🔽 For a short position, the main trigger is still the breakout of 83233. However, if you’re looking for an earlier entry, the breakout of 84363 is also suitable.
📚 Overall, be cautious today since it’s Saturday and most market participants are off, but considering that Bitcoin is near a key level, we might still see movement.
👑 BTC.D Analysis
Let’s move on to the Bitcoin dominance analysis. As you can see, dominance has undergone a corrective downward move and has reached the 63.76 level and found support there.
💫 If dominance holds at this support, the next key resistance overhead is 64.12, and breaking this level would initiate the next bullish leg for Bitcoin dominance.
💥 Breaking the 63.76 level would give a temporary confirmation of bearishness in dominance. The next support levels are 63.61 and 63.23.
📅 Total2 Analysis
Let’s move on to the Total2 analysis. Due to the bearish movement in Bitcoin dominance, this index has seen a bullish move and has broken the 954 level.
✨ If the price pulls back to this level and resumes upward movement, and if you already have an open position, you can hold it up to the 980 level. If you missed out, the next trigger would be the breakout of the previous high and confirmation through Dow Theory.
📉 The bearish confirmation for Total2 would be the breakdown of 954.
📅 USDT.D Analysis
Now let’s take a look at Tether dominance. Yesterday, the 5.48 level was broken, and the price is now heading toward the 5.39 support.
🧩 If the 5.39 level in Tether dominance is broken, I strongly recommend having an open position, because this is a very significant support level. Breaking it could start a new trend in the market.
❌ Disclaimer ❌
Trading futures is highly risky and dangerous. If you're not an expert, these triggers may not be suitable for you. You should first learn risk and capital management. You can also use the educational content from this channel.
Finally, these triggers reflect my personal opinions on price action, and the market may move completely against this analysis. So, do your own research before opening any position.
TradeCityPro | EOS Retraces Gains: Key Levels to Watch Now👋 Welcome to TradeCity Pro!
In this analysis, I’m going to review the EOS coin for you. This is one of the American-based projects operating in the Web3 space, currently ranked 63 on CoinMarketCap with a market cap of $970 million.
⌛️ 4-Hour Timeframe
On the 4-hour timeframe, as you can see, the price formed a bullish move after breaking through the 0.5997 level, which continued up to the 0.8604 zone before entering a correction phase.
🔍 After being rejected from the 0.8604 top, the price experienced a significant decline and has now returned to the 0.5997 level, fully retracing all of its previous bullish waves.
📈 For a long position, you can enter on a breakout above 0.6338. If the price stabilizes above this zone, it could move upward toward the 0.8064 level.
🔽 For a short position, you can enter if 0.5997 is broken, and the next bearish leg could potentially extend to 0.5433.
📝 Final Thoughts
This analysis reflects our opinions and is not financial advice.
Share your thoughts in the comments, and don’t forget to share this analysis with your friends! ❤️
a river no trader wants to cross.NASDAQ:OM is teetering.
The waves down are forming — a river no trader wants to cross.
Downtrend confirmed.
Liquidity zones broken.
Fibs point to 0.23.
You’ve been warned.
🩸⚔️
**Technical damage is real:
•OBs (Order Blocks) flipped bearish
•FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) wide open below
•No real bullish reaction at key zones
•Momentum bleeding off every bounce**
I’ve seen this movie before:
• VIE:LUNA before the collapse
• SEED_DONKEYDAN_MARKET_CAP:SFP after it faked strength
• FWB:ACH melting after fake-outs
When the structure breaks this bad, it’s not a dip. It’s a landslide.
Early pain looks “small.”
Then you get trapped.
Water wears down rock by persistence, not violence.
Waves keep coming until your hope is underwater.
By the time it looks obvious, it’s too late.
Without a miracle reversal at 0.3700, the flow is down.
0.2329 is the magnet.
Maybe lower.
Respect the river, or get dragged.
🩸⚔️
Dogecoin Vs Bitcoin: Mapping The 2025 All-Time HighThese are not the numbers that I am using for my DOGEBTC trade, these are very strong targets, for my numbers I am using the conservative targets for whatever reason. I guess it has been just too long since the last bull run phase.
Dogecoin is now trading within a long-term support zone vs Bitcoin, the strongest support range ever for this Cryptocurrency trading pair.
In the 2021 bull market, this level worked as resistance before the fifth and final wave. After the end of the bull market, this resistance turned support and it has been tested over and over and it holds.
The first time it was tested was June 202, then again in late 2023, early 2024 and again late 2024. This is the blue zone on the chart.
After the bullish jump last year, DOGEBTC is back again moving in this trading range. The action is happening as a higher low compared to previous years and there is no volume. It is 100% certain that this support will hold, which means that we are now in a very strong buy-zone, the accumulation zone. The best entry range possible before the 2025/26 bull market phase and bull run.
» Buy and hold.
Namaste.
Bullish Triangle Pattern on ProgressIn my previous update on BINANCE:CRVUSDT , I mentioned three potential scenarios: a bullish triangle formation, sideways movement, and a double top pattern.
Right now, it looks like the bullish triangle pattern is playing out. If this continues, I expect the price to reach the 0.7853 – 0.8343 target zone. But before that, all eyes are on the key resistance at 0.6667 — the prior high.
The best-case scenario would be a strong breakout above 0.6667, ideally with a solid bullish candle showing strong buyer momentum.
However, stay cautious. If price breaks the resistance but quickly falls back into the triangle and breaks the low of the breakout candle, that could be a false breakout (or what some might call a liquidation sweep). In that case, reducing exposure could be a wise move, as price might enter a sideways phase.
On the other hand, if price gets rejected (before breakout) at 0.6667 with a large red candle, that’s still acceptable — as long as price holds above the invalidation level at 0.5781.
Let’s keep watching how price reacts around key levels. Market structure still favors the bulls, but risk management is key.
XRPThe next leg up is NOW.
We've bounced off the .786 fib nicely, next we're eyeing a fast push towards $3.
I don't think we will ever fall below $2 again, SWIFT news is coming, ETF approvals are less than a month away, and the U.S. government will make a move to save the dollar.
We are on the cusp of something truly incredible.
LOCK IN. 🔒
APE Analysis | Lost in the Jungle or Making a Comeback? (1D)The larger-degree APE pattern appears to be a large symmetrical triangle, and we are currently in the G wave of this pattern. The G wave is bearish, and within the G wave, we can also observe a smaller-degree symmetrical triangle.
It seems we are nearing the final leg of this pattern, and we expect one more drop from the red box. If the price reaches the green zone, we may have a low-risk opportunity to enter a buy position.
Potential targets are marked on the chart.
A daily candle closing below the invalidation level would invalidate this outlook.
For risk management, please don't forget stop loss and capital management
When we reach the first target, save some profit and then change the stop to entry
Comment if you have any questions
Thank You
Total crypto MC - 1DThe total crypto market capitalization on the daily timeframe has formed a Falling Wedge pattern, which is typically a bullish reversal pattern. The price has broken out above the upper resistance line of the wedge, confirming the breakout. Currently, the price is undergoing a retest of the breakout level, which now acts as support. If this support holds successfully, it is expected that the market will experience an upward move in the near term, signaling potential bullish momentum.
SOLUSDT - Trade LogSOLUSDT – Long Setup in Daily FVG
Entry: Buy at 124 USDT (floor of the daily Fair Value Gap)
Stop Loss: 105 USDT (just below the daily FVG low)
Take Profit: 200 USDT (new all‑time highs)
Rationale:
• Price is retracing into the daily FVG, offering a high‑probability support zone
• Daily RSI double divergence & trendline support reinforce the FVG floor
• Spot accumulation targeting euphoria phase—leveraging the FVG for entry
Risk Management: Risk ~5% of account. If SOL closes below 105 USDT (invalidating the FVG), exit and reassess. Keep an eye on BTC direction as the primary driver.
ApeCoin 666% —The Uptrend From Hell (How To Maximize Profits)It has been now five months and a half since this downtrend here on the ApeCoin chart got started. The candles fit perfectly within a descending channel.
The highest bearish volume session happened 24-February. This is followed by the highest volume day ever, then APEUSDT continues lower and producing lower lows with minimum trading volume.
The 7-April low ended closing green and with a reversal candle. It is easy to see that the downtrend has no strength. It is no surprise then to find out that I am calling for a reversal now, a change of trend.
» How does one can maximize profits from a chart set up like this one?
Buy as low as possible and sell as close as possible to the top. Right now we don't know where the top is but we can easily spot the bottom. The bottom the current price and trading zone. At whatever price ApeCoin is trading now will remain the bottom when action turns green. There can be shakeouts and swings and this wouldn't change anything for you and me. A spot trader should only buy and hold. If the market lowers, nobody cares, we wait. If the market moves higher; truly awesome, this is great.
» How to maximize profits?
Buy now and wait.
Namaste.
Will STX Outperform Bitcoin?In the crypto market, if you want to beat the market, your benchmark is $CRYPTO:BTCUSD. That means to outperform the crypto market, you need to outperform Bitcoin.
One way to measure this is by watching crypto/BTC pairs, such as $BINANCE:STXBTC. If $BINANCE:STXBTCgoes up, it means STX is stronger than BTC. If it goes down, BTC is stronger than STX.
On the daily chart, BINANCE:STXBTC has been moving downward, but over the past month, sellers seem to be losing momentum—indicated by a falling wedge reversal pattern.
A bullish breakout above 0.000000770 would confirm the pattern, with a potential upside target at 0.000000993 – 0.000001055. This scenario remains valid as long as price holds above 0.000000699.
Bitcoin’s Breakout Blueprint: Eyeing $92KAs of April 20, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading around $84,500, having recently tested the $92,000 level multiple times. This price point is significant, serving as both a psychological barrier and a technical resistance level.
Technical Analysis:
Resistance and Support Levels: Bitcoin has encountered resistance near $92,000, a level that has been tested repeatedly. A sustained move above this could open the path toward $100,000 and potentially $108,000, the previous all-time high from December 2024. On the downside, support is observed around $85,650, aligning with the 200-day EMA. Further support lies at $78,000 and $74,500, marking previous consolidation zones.
Chart Patterns: The formation of a bullish pennant on the daily chart suggests potential for an upward breakout. If confirmed, this pattern could propel BTC toward $137,000 by Q3 2025.
Volume and Momentum: Recent trading volumes have been moderate, with a slight uptick during price advances, indicating growing buyer interest. Momentum indicators, such as the RSI, are neutral, leaving room for further price movements in either direction.
Fundamental Factors:
Institutional Inflows: Significant capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, exceeding $70 billion, have been observed, reflecting strong institutional interest.
CryptoRank
Macroeconomic Environment: Liquidity injections by the U.S. Treasury, amounting to $500 billion since February 2025, have increased market liquidity, which historically correlates with Bitcoin price appreciation.
Halving Effect: The April 2024 Bitcoin halving event has reduced the supply of new BTC, a factor that has historically led to substantial price increases in subsequent months.
Mid-Term Outlook:
Considering the technical and fundamental factors, Bitcoin's mid-term target remains at $92,000. A decisive break above this level could lead to a retest of the $100,000 psychological barrier and potentially higher targets. However, failure to maintain support above $85,650 may result in a consolidation phase or a retest of lower support levels.
Investors should monitor key resistance and support levels, institutional investment trends, and macroeconomic indicators to assess Bitcoin's trajectory in the coming months.
Reversal Pattern in Play – Will AVAX Flip Bullish?CRYPTOCAP:AVAX is showing signs of a potential reversal after forming a double bottom near the $17 zone. It’s currently testing a key resistance trendline along with a minor horizontal resistance around $19.50–$20.50.
A successful breakout and close above this zone could trigger bullish momentum toward $22+. However, rejection here may lead to another dip back toward support.
Price action is tightening, so a decisive move is likely soon.
DYOR, NFA
BTCUSDT – System-Based Long Signal (3D Timeframe)
📅 April 19, 2025
Yesterday’s 3D candle closed with a clear PSAR flip, shifting from bearish to bullish — an early signal of potential trend reversal.
In addition, price is now trading above the 200 MA, which confirms a return into long-term bullish territory.
🟢 Based on these two system signals, we have a valid long entry setup forming.
However, the system is not fully aligned yet:
⚠️ MLR < BB Center < SMA
This suggests the internal momentum structure is still weak.
We are above 200MA and have a PSAR trigger, but the trend metrics aren't in full confluence.
📌 Strategy suggestion:
- Consider a partial spot entry only
- Avoid leverage until full confirmation
- Wait for MLR to flip above BB Center for added strength
This is a trigger-before-confirmation type of setup — and in such cases, discipline > excitement.
TLM Bearish Flag Formation – Short Opportunity Ahead?#TLM is currently forming a Bearish Flag pattern on the 4H timeframe – a classic continuation setup indicating potential downside.
🔍 Key Observations:
Price is consolidating within the golden zone of the Fibonacci retracement.
We're closely watching for confirmation signals before entering a short position.
📉 Bearish Confirmation Triggers:
Bearish Divergence on RSI
Break of Support Level (flag support line)
Break & Retest of the 0.5 Fib level
⚠️ The more confirmations we get, the stronger the case for a bearish move. Patience is key – wait for the setup to mature and always use proper risk management. 🛡️
📌 Plan: Enter short after confirmation of at least one major bearish sign. Look for confluence to increase trade reliability.
💬 Let me know what you think! Are you shorting #TLM? Drop your analysis or charts below 👇
#TLM #CryptoAnalysis #BearishFlag #TechnicalAnalysis #ShortTrade #4HChart #Fibonacci #TradingView
Pi Network is a stablecoin? “Cryptocurrency is becoming more popular. A legal framework for stablecoins is a good idea.”
Jerome H. Powell
The market, global economy is entering a greatest thunder storm, yet not end.. and it is still going. The financial market, organization, banks, ets.. are now getting fear, panicking on what is happening to the market crash, and new tariff pause.
Yet, there is a crypto..still not yet plumeting crashing and waitting the game changer. Crypto already grow rapidly fast years by years, and proven in the market crash, covid , the crypto still strong.
The price currently trying to breaking trough resistance and still in the bearish for the moment.