LongTerm BITCOIN LINEAR chart & NUPL tells a story -August Top
We can start with the main chart.
This is a LONG TERM LINEAR chart, showing the price action Directly, unaltered by mathmatics,
Long Term charts usualy are shown by logarithmic charts.
Linear and logarithmic trading charts differ in how they represent price changes. Linear charts display equal price changes the same, making them suitable for short-term traders focusing on exact price movements. On the other hand, logarithmic charts show percentage changes, which makes them better for long-term investors or volatile assets, as they help in analyzing trends and patterns more clearly over time.
This chart starts just before the 2017 ATH and you can easily see the line that rejects ATH and how PA is up near that area right now.
Things to note are the day count from 2017 ATH to 2021 Final ATH and the day count between that double Top in 2021.
These numbers are projected to our current cycle and show we are near the projected Top using this style of Chatr, The Log charts project further into the year.
It may also be worth noting how the 50 EMA (red) was used by PA after the Drop after the first ATH, to bounce back up to the next ATH at the end of that year.
We have just done exactly the same again, PA was rejected by that long term Line and Dipped down to the 50 EMA and has since bounced back up to the rejecting line.
IS REJECTION LIKELY NOW? [/b
This is something that is impossible to answer with any real Fact But we can look at data and make eductaed projections.
PA has the ability and strength right now, to range high, running up under this line of rejection until it becomes overbought on the long term MACD, RSI , TSI etc
But something that will absolutely decide when the top is in is the Profit taking by Holders.
We are currently seeing Selling taking place and we can see the potential profit by looking at NUPL
NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, is an indicator used in trading to measure the difference between unrealized profits and losses in the Bitcoin market.
Here is the chart from all the way back to 2010
Lots to see here but to summerise.
See how there are Peaks each cycle of Maximum available profit. The point where profit taking Tops out is arrowed. This area, up to the red line, shows us the TOP zone.
What is VERY noticable this cycle is how we have not yet reached that upper Red line.
Sellers appear to be taking theor profits earlier.
The upper day counts have been consistant in the past, with 2 double tops of potential profit before the selling sold it all off.
Many people, including me, have been saying "This time is different" and this is VERY clearly shown here by the fact that we have already had the 2 peaks of potential profit and we are currently climbing to the 3rd
This has NEVER happened before and, technicaly, this could continue.
The Lower day counts are from Mid Double Tops to the Next Mid double top of potential profits mentioned above,
The Next "Mid point" is projected to be around July.
This NUPL also shows ua how the high level of potentia profits was reached Quicker this cycle than previously. This was helped by the Corporations buying Early and Massive amounts, putting Large numbers of coins into profit
In Conclusion [/i
We have the Linear Bitcoin chart pointing towards a JULY / August Top
We have the NUPL also pointing towards a July / August Mid point of Potential profits.
If you loo cloely, BOTH charts, using differnet data, suggest 28 July
What also maybe worth considering here is how we see that Potential profits are reducing in availability. As the asset becomes more expensive to buy, it also gets harder to push the price higher and so make more profit. I,E. It was eaier to double the price of Bitcoin when it was $50 a coin
Of course, non of this may play out, Things ARE DIFFERNT but I have now decided to have another plan ready for August and we need to wait and see what happens Next
BE PREPARED FOR ALL POSSIBILITIES
