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TOTAL Crypto Market Cap: Structural Breakout Aligns with Macros## 📊 TOTAL – Crypto Market Cap Ready for Expansion Phase? --- ### 🧵 **Summary** The crypto market is showing signs of strong macro strength, with TOTAL reclaiming major support levels and forming a structurally bullish setup. Our multi-Fibonacci confluences and hidden bullish divergence point toward the possibility of a sustained breakout and new expansion leg toward \$4.9T and beyond. This bullish view is further supported by powerful macro fundamentals expected over the next 8–10 months, including: * Central bank rate cuts and liquidity expansion * U.S. and EU regulatory clarity (stablecoins, ETFs, MiCA) * Strong institutional adoption and geopolitical shifts * Ethereum scaling upgrades and Bitcoin halving cycle effects Together, these narratives form a compelling foundation for a broad-based market cap expansion. --- ### 📈 **Chart Context** This is a **weekly chart of the TOTAL crypto market cap**, providing a bird’s-eye view of market cycles, macro structure, and capital flow across the entire ecosystem. --- ### 🧠 **Key Technical Observations** * **Reclaim of \$3.02T level** (key support/fib level) signals macro bullish momentum. * Market is forming **higher lows and bullish continuation structures**. * **Support zones:** \$3.02T (reclaimed), \$2.57T (key pivot), * **Resistance/TP zones:** * **TP1 – \$3.75T** (100% trend-based fib + -27% retracement expansion) * **TP2 – \$4.9T** (161.8% trend-based fib + -61.8% retracement expansion) * **TP3 – \$6.9T** (261.8% fib extension target) --- ### 🧶 **Fibonacci Confluences and TP Logic** We’ve employed both **standard Fibonacci retracement** and **trend-based extension** tools to build our target structure. The **1TP and 2TP zones** are defined by confluences between: * **Retracement expansion levels** of **-27% and -61.8%** * **Trend-based extension levels** of **100% and 161.8%** If price reaches 2TP (~~\$4.9T) and **retraces toward the parallel legs** (100%–127%), this would confirm structural symmetry and open the door for a final push toward \*\*TP3 (~~\$6.9T)\*\* — the 261.8% extension. --- ### 🔍 **Indicators** * **MACD Crossover** and rising histogram bars * **Hidden Bullish Divergence** between MACD and price – a classic continuation signal * Weekly trendline breakout from accumulation zone --- ### 🧠 **Fundamental Context** While not directly charted, key macro catalysts like ETF approvals, global liquidity cycles, monetary easing, and increasing institutional interest will likely play a role in the next phase of expansion. This chart captures the structural readiness for that narrative. ## 📊 Fundamental Context (Extended Outlook: Mid-2025 to Early 2026) Below is a detailed breakdown of upcoming macroeconomic, geopolitical, and crypto-specific developments sourced from: * Bitwise Asset Management * Fidelity Digital Assets * ARK Invest * CoinDesk, Reuters, Axios, WSJ * CapitalWars, Cointelegraph, Coinpedia * European Commission (MiCA regulations) * U.S. Congressional records and SEC announcements These events are chronologically aligned to support a structured macro bullish thesis for TOTAL market cap. Bullish Crypto Catalysts (June 2025 – Feb 2026) Summer 2025 (Jun–Aug): Monetary Easing and Regulatory Breakthroughs Central Bank Policy Pivot: By mid-2025, major central banks are shifting toward easier policy. Market expectations indicate the U.S. Federal Reserve will stop tightening and begin cutting interest rates in 2025, with forecasts of up to three rate cuts by end-2025 bitwiseinvestments.eu . Declining inflation and rising unemployment are pushing the Fed in this direction bitwiseinvestments.eu bitwiseinvestments.eu . Easier monetary policy increases global liquidity and risk appetite, historically providing a tailwind for Bitcoin and crypto prices bitwiseinvestments.eu . In fact, global money supply is near record highs, a condition that in past cycles preceded major Bitcoin rallies bitwiseinvestments.eu . Should economic volatility worsen, the Fed has even signaled readiness to deploy fresh stimulus, which would inject more liquidity – “another tailwind for Bitcoin price growth” nasdaq.com . Liquidity and Inflation Trends: With inflation trending down from earlier peaks, central banks like the Fed and European Central Bank are under less pressure to tighten. This opens the door for potential liquidity injections or QE if growth falters. Analysts note a strong correlation (often >84%) between expanding global M2 money supply and Bitcoin’s price rise nasdaq.com . There is typically a ~2-month lag for liquidity increases to flow into speculative assets like crypto nasdaq.com nasdaq.com . The monetary easing expected in mid-2025 could therefore boost crypto markets by late summer, as new liquidity finds its way into higher-yielding investments. One projection even models Bitcoin retesting all-time highs (~$108K by June 2025) if global liquidity continues upward nasdaq.com – underscoring how “accelerated expansion of global liquidity” often aligns with crypto bull runs nasdaq.com . U.S. Stablecoin Legislation: A landmark regulatory catalyst is anticipated in summer 2025: the first comprehensive U.S. crypto law, focused on stablecoins. The Senate has advanced the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act to a final vote coindesk.com . Passage of this bill (expected by mid-2025) would create a federal framework for stablecoin issuers, resolving a major regulatory gray area coindesk.com . Analysts call this “one of the most important regulatory developments in the history of crypto” – potentially even bigger than the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in impact coindesk.com . By enforcing prudential standards on stablecoin reserves and permitting licensed issuance, the law would legitimize stablecoins as a core part of the financial system. Bitwise predicts that clear rules could trigger a “multi-year crypto bull market,” with stablecoin market cap exploding from ~$245B to $2.5 trillion as mainstream adoption accelerates coindesk.com coindesk.com . A U.S. law would also likely set a global precedent, encouraging other regions to integrate crypto-dollar tokens into commerce. Bottom line: expected stablecoin regulation in summer 2025 is a bullish game-changer, improving market integrity and unlocking new liquidity for crypto markets coindesk.com . Regulatory Clarity in Europe: Meanwhile, Europe’s comprehensive MiCA regulations have fully taken effect as of late 2024, so by summer 2025 the EU has a unified crypto framework. This gives legal clarity to issuers, exchanges, and custodians across the 27-nation bloc pymnts.com skadden.com . The harmonized rules (covering everything from stablecoin reserves to exchange licensing) are expected to expand Europe’s crypto market size by 15–20% in the coming years dailyhodl.com . With MiCA in force, firms can confidently launch crypto products EU-wide, and institutional investors have more protection. U.K. regulators are on a similar path – e.g. recognizing stablecoins as payment instruments – further globalizing the pro-crypto regulatory trend. By mid-2025, this regulatory thaw in major economies is improving investor sentiment. Goldman Sachs recently noted that 91% of crypto firms are gearing up for MiCA compliance – a sign that industry is preparing to scale under clearer rules merklescience.com merklescience.com . Overall, the summer of 2025 marks a turning point: governments are embracing sensible crypto rules (rather than harsh crackdowns), reducing uncertainty and inviting institutional capital off the sidelines. Initial ETF Impact: The first wave of U.S. spot crypto ETFs – approved in late 2023 and January 2024 – will have been trading for over a year by mid-2025 investopedia.com . Their success is already far exceeding expectations: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust amassed a record $52 billion AUM in its first year (the biggest ETF launch in history) coindesk.com , and other Bitcoin funds from Fidelity, ARK, and Bitwise quickly joined the top 20 U.S. ETF launches of all time coindesk.com . These products have unleashed pent-up retail and institutional demand by offering a regulated, convenient vehicle for crypto exposure coindesk.com . By summer 2025, ETF inflows are still robust, and many Wall Street analysts expect a second wave of approvals. Indeed, 2025 is being called “the Year of Crypto ETFs” coindesk.com . Observers predict dozens of new funds – including spot Ether, Solana, and XRP ETFs – could win approval under revamped SEC leadership in the post-2024 election environment coindesk.com . If so, late 2025 could see a broad menu of crypto ETF offerings, widening investor access to the asset class. This steady drumbeat of ETF launches and inflows adds a structural source of buy-pressure under crypto markets throughout 2025. (Notably, Bloomberg data showed over $1.7B poured into spot crypto ETFs in just the first week of 2025, on top of 2024’s flows etf.com .) In short, the ETF effect – “shocking the industry to its core” in year one coindesk.com – is set to grow even stronger in 2025, channeling more traditional capital into crypto. U.S. Political Shift (Post-Election): The outcome of the Nov 2024 U.S. elections is a crucial backdrop by mid-2025. A new administration under President Donald Trump took office in January 2025 and immediately signaled a markedly pro-crypto policy stance. Within his first 100 days, Trump’s appointments to key financial agencies (SEC, CFTC, OCC) effectuated a “180° pivot” in crypto regulation from the prior administration cnbc.com . Industry observers describe a sharp policy reversal – where previously the sector faced hostility, now it’s courted as an engine of innovation. President Trump has publicly vowed to be “the first crypto-president,” hosting crypto industry leaders at the White House and promising to boost digital asset adoption reuters.com . He even floated creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States reuters.com – a striking show of support for Bitcoin’s role as a reserve asset (though it remains to be seen if this materializes). More tangibly, regulatory agencies have begun rolling back onerous rules. For example, the SEC under new leadership scrapped a prior accounting guideline that made bank crypto custody prohibitively expensive reuters.com . And the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has “paved the way” for banks to engage in crypto activities like custody and stablecoin issuance reuters.com . These changes in Washington brighten the outlook for crypto markets: with regulatory uncertainty fading, U.S. institutions feel more confident to participate. In essence, by mid-2025 the world’s largest capital market (the U.S.) is shifting from impeding crypto to embracing it, a narrative change that cannot be overstated in its bullish significance coindesk.com reuters.com . Geopolitical Easing and BRICS Actions: Global macro conditions in summer 2025 may also improve due to geopolitical developments. If major conflicts (like the Russia-Ukraine war) de-escalate or move toward resolution by late 2024 or 2025, it would remove a key source of risk-off sentiment. Lower geopolitical risk and easing of war-driven commodity shocks would help cool inflation (especially energy prices) and bolster global growth – factors that support risk asset rallies (crypto included). On another front, the BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa + new members) are continuing their de-dollarization agenda in 2025. At the BRICS summit in October 2024, they discussed creating a new gold-backed reserve currency (“the Unit”) as an alternative to the U.S. dollar investingnews.com . They also announced a BRICS blockchain-based payment network (“BRICS Bridge”) to connect their financial systems via CBDCs, bypassing Western networks investingnews.com . Going into 2025, these initiatives are expected to progress (with Russia currently chairing BRICS). While a full-fledged BRICS currency may be years away (and faces hurdles moderndiplomacy.eu ), the bloc’s move to settle more trade in non-USD currencies is already underway (by 2023, roughly 20% of oil trades were in other currencies) investingnews.com . Implication: A shift toward a more multi-polar currency world could weaken U.S. dollar dominance over time investingnews.com . For crypto, this trend is intriguing – as nations seek dollar alternatives, Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, supranational asset may rise. In sanctioned or economically volatile countries, both elites and the public might accelerate adoption of crypto for cross-border value storage. For example, U.S. sanctions on Russia and China have already catalyzed talk of reserve diversification investingnews.com . Fidelity analysts note that “rising inflation, currency debasement and fiscal deficits” globally are making Bitcoin strategically attractive for even nation-states and central banks coindesk.com coindesk.com . Summing up: a backdrop of improving geopolitical stability (if realized) plus a weakening dollar regime provides a bullish macro and narrative case for borderless cryptocurrencies as we enter the second half of 2025. Fall 2025 (Sep–Nov): Institutional Inflows, Adoption & Tech Upgrades Surging Institutional Adoption: By autumn 2025, the cumulative effect of regulatory clarity and market maturation is a wave of institutional adoption unlike any prior cycle. In traditional finance, major U.S. banks and brokers are cautiously but steadily entering the crypto arena. Reuters reports that Wall Street banks are now receiving “green lights” from regulators to expand into crypto services, after years of hesitance reuters.com reuters.com . Many top banks have been internally testing crypto trading and custody via pilot programs reuters.com . As one example, Charles Schwab’s CEO said in May 2025 that regulator signals are “flashing pretty green” for large firms, and confirmed Schwab plans to offer spot crypto trading to clients within a year reuters.com . Banks like BNY Mellon, State Street, and Citigroup – which collectively manage trillions – are expected to roll out crypto custody solutions by 2025, often via partnerships with crypto-native custodians dlnews.com . The OCC has explicitly authorized banks to handle crypto custody and stablecoins (under proper safeguards), removing a key barrier reuters.com . And the SEC’s friendlier stance under new leadership means banks no longer face punitive capital charges for holding digital assets reuters.com . The net effect is that by late 2025, institutional-grade crypto infrastructure is falling into place. More pension funds, endowments, and asset managers can allocate to crypto through familiar channels (regulated custodians, ETFs, prime brokers). Even conservative banking giants are warming up: Bank of America’s CEO stated the bank “will embrace cryptocurrencies for payments if regulations permit” and hinted at possibly launching a BOA stablecoin for settlement reuters.com . Likewise, Fidelity and BlackRock’s crypto units are expanding offerings after seeing outsized demand. This institutional legitimization dramatically expands the pool of potential investors in crypto markets, supporting a higher total market capitalization. Crypto ETF Expansion: In Q4 2025, the roster of crypto-based ETFs and funds is likely to broaden further. As noted, analysts foresee 50+ crypto ETFs by end of 2025 under the pro-industry U.S. regulatory regime coindesk.com . By fall, we may see Ethereum spot ETFs (building on the successful Bitcoin products) and even funds for large-cap altcoins. For instance, Nate Geraci of The ETF Store predicts spot Solana and XRP ETFs are on the horizon in the U.S. coindesk.com . Internationally, Canada and Europe already have multiple crypto ETPs – their continued growth adds to global inflows. With a year of performance history by late ’25, crypto ETFs will likely start seeing allocations from more conservative institutions (insurance firms, corporate treasuries, etc.) that needed to observe initially. Fidelity’s strategists noted that in 2024 much of the ETF buying came from retail and independent advisors, but 2025 could bring uptake from hedge funds, RIAs, and pensions as comfort grows coindesk.com coindesk.com . In summary, fall 2025 should witness accelerating capital inflows via investment vehicles, as crypto solidifies its place in mainstream portfolios. This sustained demand – “2025’s flows will easily surpass 2024’s” according to one strategist coindesk.com – provides a steady bid under crypto asset prices, reinforcing a bullish trend. Nation-State and Sovereign Adoption: A notable development to watch in late 2025 is the entry of nation-states and public institutions into Bitcoin. Fidelity Digital Assets published a report calling 2025 a potential “game changer in terms of bitcoin adoption”, predicting that more nation-states, central banks, sovereign wealth funds, and treasuries will buy BTC as a strategic reserve asset coindesk.com . The rationale is that with rising inflation and heavy debt loads, governments face currency debasement and financial instability, making Bitcoin an attractive hedge coindesk.com . By Q4 2025, we could see early signs of this trend. For example, there are rumors that Russia and Brazil have explored holding Bitcoin reserves fortune.com , and Middle Eastern sovereign funds flush with petrodollars might quietly accumulate crypto as diversification. In the U.S., President Trump and crypto-friendly lawmakers like Senator Cynthia Lummis have openly discussed establishing a U.S. Bitcoin reserve or adding BTC to Treasury holdings coindesk.com . Lummis even introduced a “Bitcoin Reserve” bill in 2024, which if enacted would set a precedent for national adoption coindesk.com . While such bold moves might not happen overnight, even small allocations by governments or central banks would be symbolically massive. It would validate crypto’s role as “digital gold” and potentially ignite FOMO among other nations (a game theory dynamic Fidelity’s report alludes to). Thus by late 2025, any announcements of central banks buying Bitcoin or countries mining/holding crypto (similar to El Salvador’s earlier example) could spur a bullish frenzy. At minimum, the expectation of this “sovereign bid” provides a narrative supporting the market. As Fidelity’s analysts put it: not owning some Bitcoin may soon be seen as a greater risk for governments than owning it coindesk.com . Ethereum & Crypto Tech Upgrades: The latter part of 2025 is also packed with technological catalysts in the crypto sector, which can boost investor optimism. Chief among these is Ethereum’s roadmap milestones. Ethereum core developers plan to deliver major scaling improvements by end-2025 as part of “The Surge” phase bitrue.com . This includes fully rolling out sharding – splitting the blockchain into parallel “shards” – combined with widespread Layer-2 rollups, aiming to increase throughput to 100,000+ transactions per second bitrue.com . If Ethereum achieves this by Q4 2025, it would vastly lower fees and increase capacity, enabling a new wave of decentralized application growth. For users, that means faster, cheaper transactions; for the market, it means Ethereum becomes more valuable as utilization can skyrocket without bottlenecks. Progress is well underway: an intermediate upgrade (EIP-4844 “proto-danksharding”) was implemented earlier to boost Layer-2 efficiency, and the next major upgrade (code-named Pectra) is slated for Q1 2025 focusing on validator improvements and blob data throughput fidelitydigitalassets.com . After that, the final sharding implementation is expected. By late 2025, Ethereum’s evolution – including MEV mitigation (The Scourge) and Verkle trees for lighter nodes (The Verge) – should make the network more scalable, secure, and decentralized bitrue.com . These upgrades are bullish for the ecosystem: a more scalable Ethereum can host more DeFi, NFT, and gaming activity, attracting capital and users from traditional tech. Investors may speculate on ETH demand rising with network activity. Beyond Ethereum, other protocols (Solana, Cardano, Layer-2s like Arbitrum, etc.) also have roadmap milestones during this period, potentially improving their value propositions. Overall, the tech backdrop in late 2025 is one of significant improvement, which supports a positive market outlook – the infrastructure will be ready for mainstream scale just as interest returns. Bitcoin Halving Aftermath: Although the Bitcoin halving took place in April 2024, its bullish impact historically materializes with a lag of 12-18 months. That puts late 2025 into early 2026 right in the window when the post-halving cycle may reach a euphoric phase. By fall 2025, Bitcoin’s supply issuance will have been at half its prior rate for ~18 months, potentially leading to a supply-demand squeeze if demand surges. ARK Invest notes that previous halvings (2012, 2016, 2020) all coincided with the early stages of major bull markets ark-invest.com . Indeed, by Q4 2025 we may see this pattern repeating. ARK’s analysts observed in late 2024 that Bitcoin remained roughly on track with its four-year cycle and expressed “optimism about prospects for the next 6–12 months” following the April 2024 halving ark-invest.com . That optimism appears well-founded if macro conditions and adoption trends align as discussed. By November 2025, Bitcoin could be approaching or exceeding its previous all-time high ( ~$69K from 2021) – some crypto analysts foresee six-figure prices during this cycle. Importantly, a rising Bitcoin tide tends to lift the entire crypto market cap. Late 2025 could see a broad rally across altcoins, often referred to as “altseason,” as new retail and institutional money, emboldened by Bitcoin’s strength, diversifies into higher-beta crypto assets. The expectation of the halving-driven bull cycle can itself become a self-fulfilling sentiment booster: investors position ahead of it, providing additional buy pressure. In summary, fall 2025 is poised to be the crescendo of the Bitcoin halving cycle, with historical analogues (2013, 2017, 2021) suggesting a powerful uptrend in crypto prices. Reduced BTC supply + peak cycle FOMO + all the fundamental drivers (ETF flows, low rates, tech upgrades) make this timeframe particularly conducive to a bullish market cap expansion. Winter 2025–26 (Dec–Feb): Peak Momentum and Continued Tailwinds Bull Market Momentum: Entering winter 2025/26, the crypto market could be in full bull mode. If the above developments play out, total crypto market capitalization may be approaching new highs by late 2025, driven by strong fundamentals and investor FOMO. Historically, the final leg of crypto bull markets sees parabolic gains and surging liquidity inflows. We might witness that in Dec 2025 – Feb 2026: exuberant sentiment, mainstream media coverage of Bitcoin “breaking records,” and increased retail participation. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, however, this cycle has far greater institutional involvement, which could imply more sustainable capital inflows (and possibly a larger magnitude of inflows). Key macro factors are likely to remain supportive through early 2026: central banks that began easing in 2024-25 may continue to hold rates low or even consider renewed asset purchases if economies are soft. For instance, if a mild U.S. recession hits in late 2025, the Fed and peers could respond with quantitative easing or liquidity facilities, effectively “printing” money that often finds its way into asset markets, including crypto nasdaq.com . China’s PBoC could also inject stimulus to boost growth, adding to global liquidity. Such actions would prolong the “risk-on” environment into 2026, delaying any end to the crypto uptrend. Additionally, global equity markets are projected to be strong in this scenario (buoyed by low rates and easing geopolitical tensions), and crypto’s correlation with equities means a rising stock tide lifts crypto too – as was observed in May 2025 when stock rallies coincided with BTC and ETH jumps blockchain.news blockchain.news . Investor Sentiment and Retail Revival: By early 2026, investor sentiment toward crypto could be the most bullish since 2021. With clear regulatory frameworks, high-profile endorsements (even governments buying in), and tech narratives (Web3, AI+blockchain, etc.), the stage is set for a positive feedback loop. Retail investors who largely sat out during the harsh 2022–23 bear market may fully return, spurred by “fear of missing out” as they see Bitcoin and popular altcoins climbing. This broadening of participation (from hedge funds down to everyday investors globally) increases market breadth and can drive total market cap to climactic heights. Notably, the availability of user-friendly investment onramps – e.g. spot crypto ETFs through any brokerage, crypto offerings integrated in fintech apps and banks – makes it much easier for average investors to allocate to crypto in 2025-26 than in past cycles. The removal of friction means inflows can ramp up faster and larger. Social media and pop culture hype also tend to peak in late-stage bulls; we might see Bitcoin and Ethereum becoming water-cooler talk again, drawing in new demographics. All of this contributes to strong sentiment and capital inflows in winter 2025/26, reinforcing the bullish outlook. Continued Policy and Geopolitical Tailwinds: The policy landscape is expected to remain a tailwind into 2026. In the U.S., if the pro-crypto Trump administration stays aligned with its promises, we could see additional positive actions: perhaps tax clarity for digital assets, streamlined ETF approvals for more crypto categories, or even federal guidelines for banks to hold crypto on balance sheets. Such steps would further normalize crypto within the financial system. Regulatory coordination internationally might also improve – for example, G20 nations in 2025 have been working on a global crypto reporting framework and stablecoin standards, which, once implemented, reduce the risk of harsh crackdowns in any major economy. On the geopolitical front, the BRICS de-dollarization efforts might bear first fruit by 2026, such as increased trade settled in yuan, gold, or even Bitcoin. If Saudi Arabia (a new BRICS invitee) starts pricing some oil in non-USD, that could weaken dollar liquidity at the margins, and some of that displaced value might flow to alternative stores like crypto or gold. Additionally, by 2026 the world will be looking ahead to the next U.S. Presidential election cycle (2028) – typically, in the lead-up, administrations prefer supportive economic conditions. This could mean fiscal stimulus or at least no new financial regulations that rock markets, implying a benign policy environment for risk assets. In Europe, 2026 will see MiCA fully operational and possibly updated with new provisions for DeFi and NFTs, further integrating the crypto market. In sum, early 2026 should carry forward many of 2025’s positive drivers – ample liquidity, regulatory support, and growing mainstream acceptance – giving little reason to suspect an abrupt end to the bullish trend during this window. Bitcoin Halving Cycle Peak: If history rhymes, the crypto market might reach a cycle peak somewhere around late 2025 or early 2026. Past bull cycles (2013, 2017, 2021) peaked roughly 12-18 months after the halving; a similar timeframe would put a possible top in the Dec 2025 – Feb 2026 period. That could mean Bitcoin at unprecedented price levels and total crypto market cap in multi-trillions, barring any unforeseen shocks. ARK Invest’s analysis as of late 2024 remained optimistic that Bitcoin was “in sync with historical cycles” and poised for strong performance into 2025 ark-invest.com . By early 2026, those cycle dynamics (diminished new supply vs. surging demand) might reach a crescendo. One metric to watch is the stock-to-flow or issuance rate – post-halving Bitcoin’s inflation rate is below 1%, lower than gold’s, which can drive the digital gold narrative to its zenith at this point. Moreover, Ethereum’s upcoming transition to a deflationary issuance (with EIP-1559 fee burns and Proof-of-Stake) means ETH could also be seeing declining supply into 2026, potentially amplifying its price if demand spikes. Thus, both of the top crypto assets would have increasing scarcity dynamics during the period when interest is highest – a recipe for a dramatic run-up. Importantly, capital rotations within crypto during peak phases often send smaller altcoins skyrocketing (as investors seek outsized gains), temporarily boosting total market cap beyond just Bitcoin’s contribution. All told, the early 2026 period could represent the euphoric apex of this cycle’s bull market, supported by solid macro and fundamental fuel laid in the preceding months. Even if volatility will be high, the overall outlook through February 2026 remains strongly bullish for crypto’s total market capitalization, given the confluence of loose monetary conditions, favorable policy shifts, geopolitical diversification into crypto, institutional FOMO, and major network upgrades powering the narrative. ✨ Philosophical Reflection In the ever-unfolding rhythm of cycles—accumulation, expansion, distribution, and reset—crypto mirrors the deeper architecture of nature and consciousness. Just as seeds lie dormant in winter awaiting the kiss of spring, so too does capital bide its time in the shadows before surging into momentum. The Fibonacci spirals found in shells, storms, and galaxies reappear in price action—offering not just numbers, but a language of emergence. What we witness in the TOTAL market cap is not just a breakout—it is a reawakening. A collective pulse of belief, liquidity, and intention. In this confluence of technical geometry and macroeconomic tides, the market becomes more than price—it becomes a story, a symbol, a signal. We don’t just analyze this chart—we read it like a sacred map, charting the ascent of value, vision, and velocity.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by BitonGroup
TOTAL Crypto Market. Games with the 800-Pound Gorilla. Series IIOver the 4 months since Donald Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, his administration’s policies have had a complex and in many ways negative impact on cryptocurrency markets, despite the overall pro-crypto agenda. Short-Term Market Volatility Due to Tariff Policy One of the most significant negative impacts has been caused by Trump’s aggressive tariff policy. The announcement and subsequent implementation of new tariffs sent shock waves through global financial markets, including cryptocurrencies. The immediate effect has been increased volatility, with Bitcoin down a third from its highs, Ethereum and many other major coins also falling by more than half, and crypto futures seeing liquidations of over $450 million in a single day. This turbulence was not isolated — experts noted that broader “risk aversion,” in which investors flee volatile assets for safer havens like gold, led to sharp declines in both the stock and crypto markets. Uncertainty around tariffs — particularly reciprocal tariffs affecting up to 25 countries — created short-term headwinds for cryptocurrencies. As institutional and foreign investors pulled billions out of U.S. stocks, the resulting market volatility spilled over to cryptocurrency, which remains closely tied to tech indexes like the NASDAQ. This risk aversion delayed potential rallies and led to a volatile, unpredictable trading environment. Regulatory Rollbacks and Market Integrity Concerns The Trump administration has aggressively rolled back regulatory oversight in an attempt to create a more crypto-friendly environment. Key steps include disbanding the Justice Department’s National Cryptocurrency Enforcement Team (NCET), appointing pro-crypto officials to regulatory bodies, and directing agencies to streamline or repeal existing crypto regulations. While these actions have reduced the compliance burden on crypto businesses and spurred innovation, they have also raised serious concerns about the integrity of the market. Critics argue that loosening oversight increases the risks of money laundering, fraud, and illegal transactions, which could undermine investor protections and the overall reputation of U.S. crypto markets. Consumer advocacy groups warn that rapid deregulation could encourage abuse and undermine trust, especially since the Trump administration has also banned the development of a U.S. central bank digital currency (CBDC), setting the U.S. apart from other major economies pursuing digital currency initiatives. Conflicts of Interest and Ethical Controversies Another negative impact has been the perception — if not the reality — of conflicts of interest and ethical dilemmas. The Trump family’s direct involvement in crypto projects, including the launch of a stablecoin and investments in mining, has fueled suspicions of market manipulation and blurred the lines between personal and presidential interests. Such controversies have further undermined investor confidence and contributed to a sense of unpredictability in regulatory and market outcomes. Summary Table: Key Negative Impacts Policy/Action =>> Negative impact on crypto markets Rising Tariffs and Trade Uncertainty =>> Increased volatility, risk aversion, falling prices. Regulatory Rollbacks/NCET Dissolution =>> Weakened oversight, higher risk of fraud and abuse. CBDC Development Ban =>> US Lagging Global Digital Currency Innovation Trump Family’s Direct Involvement in Crypto =>> Alleged Conflicts of Interest, Market Manipulation Concerns. Technical Challenge The technical picture in the main crypto market cap chart CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL points to the end of the recovery period, reaching a key resistance near the $3.5 trillion mark. Conclusion While the Trump administration has promoted a more liberal environment for crypto innovation, the last four months have seen significant negative effects: increased market volatility due to tariff policy, increased risk due to deregulation, and growing concerns about conflicts of interest. These factors have combined to create an atmosphere of uncertainty and skepticism, which is undermining the stability and trust in the US crypto markets in the short term. -- Best wishes, @PandorraResearch Team 😎
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by PandorraResearch
MARKETS week ahead: May 26 – 31Last week in the news The market sentiment was once again shaped by fundamentals during the previous week. On one hand, the new narrative regarding tariffs raised concerns over potential stagflation, while the new tax and spending bill adopted by the US House of Representatives is raising concerns over the broadening of the US debt. The US equities were traded with a negative sentiment, where S&P 500 ended the week at the level of 5.802. This news also supported the weakening of the US Dollar and rise in the price of gold, which ended the week at $3.357. Gold gained almost 2% only on Friday. The US Treasury yield also strongly reacted, where 10Y reached 4,62 at one moment, however, ending the week at 4,5%. This week BTC celebrated Pizza Day anniversary, with a fresh, new all time highest level at $111,7K. The markets tried to start the previous week with a positive sentiment, however, news regarding new tariffs imposed by the US Administration turned the sentiment to negative territory. As per the announcement of the US President, the new 50% tariffs on imports from the European Union, will become effective as of 1st July. Although the US Administration is open to discussion, the latest news from the US President states “not looking for a deal”. As announced on social network “Truth” the US President will impose a 25% tariffs on all IPhones which are produced outside of the US. This news hit shares of Apple, which lost about 3% only during Friday's trading session. At the same time, some analysts are noting that the production of IPhones in America will significantly impact the price of smartphones, which might reach $3.000 from current $1.000. The US House of Representatives adopted a tax and spending bill, during the previous week. Although the bill includes cuts to Medicare, it also includes several other tax cuts, which significantly raised concerns over broadening of the US debt in the next 10 years period. It comes after a US credit rating cut by rating agency Moodys during the previous week, on the same concerns. News is reporting that the companies are turning to AI in order to estimate the potential global impact of their supply chains, after introduction of trade tariffs by the US Administration. It is called “AI tariff agent” which can immediately calculate changes for 20.000 products. The US Steel Corporation made a business agreement with Japanese Nippon Steel. The takeover was initially stopped by the US President Joe Biden, however, the Trump administration supported this deal but in terms of partnership between two companies. As it has been noted, the deal is supposed to create 70K new jobs in the US steel industry and $14B to the US economy. CRYPTO MARKET Bitcoin celebrated the anniversary of Pizza Day by reaching another significant milestone - a fresh, new all time highest level. At the same time, the rest of coins were traded in a relatively mixed manner. However, regardless of mixed trading, there has been an increase of total crypto market capitalization of around 4% on a weekly level, where around $114B had been added to the crypto market, mostly of which came from BTC. Daily trading volumes were also almost doubled on a weekly basis, from $148B traded week before to $306B. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 4%, with an inflow of funds of around $139B. BTC celebrated its anniversary with an increase in cap of 4,8% on a weekly level, adding total $99B to its capitalization. The rest of the crypto market did not follow a surge in value, as they were mostly traded in a mixed manner. On a positive side were Monero, with a surge in value of 16,7% w/w adding $1B to its cap. ETH modestly increased its value by 1,7%, with an inflow of $5,2B. Another coin with a significant weekly surplus was ZCash, which added 26% to its value. BNB was traded higher by 4%, while Solana added 3,6% in value. Uniswap was also traded higher by 4%. On a completely opposite side were coins like Maker, which dropped in value by almost 29% w/w. XRP and Litecoin lost around 2% in value, while Polkadot was traded lower by more than 3%. When coins in circulation are in question, there has been higher activity during the previous week. This week ZCash added 5,2% more coins to the market. XRP, DOGE and DASH had an increase in circulating coins by 0,1%, the same as Solana and Filecoin. This week Polkadot had a higher increase of coins in circulation by 0,6%. Crypto futures market BTC futures were following the spot market, in which sense, futures on this coin ended the week by more than 5% for all maturities. Different situation was with ETH futures. Although ETH gained a modest 1,7% w/w, its futures perceived the market at different levels, where all maturities gained more than 9,5% on a weekly basis. BTC futures maturing as of the end of this year closed the week at the level of $113.520 and those maturing a year later at the level of $119.980. ETH futures with maturity in December 2025 were last traded at $2.682 while December 2026 was closed at $2.835. It is interesting that ETH long term futures are still struggling to pass the $3K level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: May 18 – 24Last week in the news The US inflation and inflation expectations were in the spotlight of market interest during the previous week. The weekly surprise came from the US-based credit rating agency Moody’s, which downgraded the US sovereign by one notch. As the news came late Friday, the market reaction was reflected in an after-hours trading, where the 10Y Treasury benchmark reached again the level of 4,48%. As tariffs tensions are settling down, the positive market sentiment continues to hold on US equity markets. The S&P 500 had five positive trading days, adding more than 5% to its value during the week, and closing it at 5.958. Due to the same reason, the price of gold eased, ending the week at the level of $3.201. The crypto market was side traded during the week, where BTC was moving between levels of $103K and $105K. The US inflation figures were posted during the previous week, which was in line with market expectations. The US inflation in April was standing at 0,2% for the month, and 2,3% on a yearly basis. At the same time core inflation continues to be modestly elevated on a yearly basis, with the level of 2,8% in April, however, it reached 0,2% on a monthly basis. The surprise came from the University of Michigan inflation expectation survey, which was elevated compared to the previous posted figures. The preliminary data showed an increased 5 years inflation expectations of 7,3%, from 6,5% posted previously. Expectations for a yearly inflation were also higher, at the level of 4,6% from 4.4% posted previously. Analysts are noting that such sentiment of US consumers is coming from tensions over trade tariffs between the US and China. The significant news from rating agencies came during the weekend, noting that the US based rating agency Moody’s downgraded the US sovereign rating by one notch, from Aaa to Aa1. The rating cut came as a result of concerns over sustainability of the US budget deficit and higher rising costs of debt in the environment of higher interest rates. The market reaction was negative, but was reflected in an after-hours trading. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark surged to the level of 4,48%, while 30Y Treasury yields climbed to the level of 4,96%. The US President's visit to Gulf countries was under close watch of news and markets during the previous week. The most important outcome of these visits are significant trade and investment agreements which the US and Gulf countries signed during the visit. Some deals include a $1,2 trillion commitment by Saudi Arabia of the “economic exchange”, a $1,4 trillion investment over the next 10 years of UAE in the US. Projects were mostly related to investment in the AI and tech companies but also purchases of Boeing planes and military equipment, as per news reports. Another news covered the US President's visit to the United Arab Emirates, where it is noted that Nvidia, Cisco and Oracle will support the project called “UAE Stargate”, which is an artificial intelligence data centre based in Abu Dhabi. CRYPTO MARKET After a significant rally two weeks ago, the crypto market slowed down a bit during the previous week. It was traded in a mixed mode, however, the majority of coins had a weekly correction in the price. BTC managed to sustain the weekly levels above the $103K, holding the total crypto market capitalization relatively flat. The total crypto market cap remained relatively flat on a weekly basis, losing less than $ 1B in value. Daily trading volumes eased during the week, trading around $148B on a daily basis, which was a significant drop from $309B traded the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 1%, with $25B inflow of funds. BTC had a relative volatility during the previous week, but it managed to end it relatively flat, adding $12B to its total market cap, or 0,6% w/w. ETH also managed to sustain previously gained levels, also ending the week flat, adding a modest 0,6% to its cap. Another coin which was traded with a positive sentiment for the second week in a row was Monero, which managed to add additional 6,7% to its total capitalization. Tron is also in this group with a weekly gain of 4,2%. On the opposite side were coins whose price went through a weekly correction. XRP had a drop in value of 1%, losing $1,45B in market value. BNB dropped by 1,2% while ADA had a major correction of 7%. Uniswap was last traded won by 14,6%, Filecoin and Algorand also experienced a drop in value of more than 7% each. When it comes to circulating coins, the highest weekly increase had IOTA of 0,5%. IOTA was followed by Filecoin, with an weekly increase in circulating coins of 0,4%. This week Maker had a withdrawal of the circulating coins by -0,2%. It is interesting to note that stablecoin Tether issued the new 0,9% new coins on the market. Crypto futures market During the previous week there has been a significant increase in the value of ETH futures. Although this coin managed to add 0,6% to its market cap, still futures showed that this coin should be more than 11% higher from its current market value. This includes both short term and long term futures. Futures maturing as of the end of May were last traded at levels above $2,6K. At the same time, futures maturing in December this year were last traded at $2.720, and those maturing a year later closed the week at $2.926. This means a positive market sentiment, increasing the possibility for ETH long term futures to reach levels above the $3K in the near future. BTC futures remained relatively flat as of the end of the week, moving in line with the market sentiment from the spot market. In this sense, futures maturing in December this year reached the last trading price at $108.455, and those maturing in December 2026 closed the week at $114.930.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Bitcoin - An unusual chart!Over the past 3 years, I’ve noticed that Bitcoin has been moving in a consistently bullish pattern, as shown on the chart. After breaking out of the red ellipse shape, Bitcoin tends to rally strongly—and that’s usually the signal for altcoins to follow. We’ve now broken out of this ellipse, and it looks like the real bullish move is just beginning. In this chart, I’ve tried to illustrate both the potential upside ahead of us and the estimated timeframe in which this move could unfold. I’ve divided the chart into segments from August 2022 to April 2025. 🔸The red numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 indicate periods of consolidation. 🔸The blue numbers 1, 2, 3, 4 represent strong Bitcoin and altcoin rallies that follow the breakouts. While the exact percentage gains and time durations may vary, if we take the average, we can estimate the upcoming move to be around 120%, taking Bitcoin to around $165K. Similarly, the average time duration for each bullish move has been approximately 120 days. [b ]Welcome to the bull market. Best Regards Ceciliones 🎯
by ceciliones
7
MARKETS week ahead: May 11 – 17Last week in the news The major event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting. Fed held interest rates unchanged, but the main input from Chair Powell was that the Fed is ready to take immediate action in case of a negative consequences of imposed trade tariffs. This brought back investors confidence in financial markets, where the US Dollar gained in value, as well as the US equity market. The S&P 500 closed the week at the level of 5.659. The price of gold dropped on a stronger US Dollar, to the level of $3.326. There has been a reaction also in US Treasury yields, where the 10Y benchmark was last traded at 4,39%. This time the crypto market was not left behind the major developments. BTC made a significant weekly gain by managing to cross the $100K psychological level, reaching the highest levels as of the end of the week above the $103K. The most expected and watched event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting and Fed Chair Powell's address to the public in an after-the-meeting press conference. The Fed left interest rates unchanged, as was expected, but noted something which brought back the confidence among market participants. Namely, it has been acknowledged that the uncertainty over economic outlook has increased, mostly due to imposed trade tariffs. Still, on a positive side is that the Fed is ready to take immediate actions in case that trade tariffs make a significant impact on the US economy and Fed's dual mandate targets. In an interview, St. Louis Fed President Musalem noted that he will not vote for rate cuts until he is certain over the effect of imposed tariffs on the US economy. In this sense, there is the question whether tariffs would lead to persistent inflation, or it is going to be only a one-off effect. The same opinion with Musalem shares Fed Governor Lisa Cook, and is also concerned about future productivity of the US economy and discouragement of investments. The week ahead might bring back some investors' concerns as it is expected to be the start of negotiations between the US and China over the imposed trade tariffs. The US signed an agreement with the U.K. over tariffs of 10%, while many analysts are noting that this might be the target for the rest of the countries in the world. As per US President, his expectations are that tariffs with China might be agreed at 80%. Although this is a drop from the current 145%, analysts are still noting that this is again too high a level of tariffs which might hurt the US economy. The ECB Board member Schabel noted in an interview during the previous week, that ECB should stop further cuts of interest rates. The mentioned reason is that the increased global instability is slowly adding to inflation in the EuroZone. CRYPTO MARKET A positive sentiment from traditional financial markets this time was reflected also on the crypto market. This was one of weeks with significant gains, where the vast majority of crypto coins finished the week in green. What is most important, the total crypto market capitalization returned to the positive territory from the start of this year, by gaining 10% only during this week. Total value was increased by $309B. Daily trading volumes surged to the level of $235B on a daily basis, from $106 traded the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at 1%, with $ 26B inflow of funds. Bitcoin was the major coin who led total crypto market capitalization to the higher grounds. BTC added $140B to its market cap, increasing it by 7,3% on a weekly basis. Excellent performance had ETH, which surged by even 36%, adding $80B to its market cap. Market favourite Solana was up by more than 17%, increasing its cap by $13B. The same amount of funds was added to XRP, whose surge was 10,6% w/w. The meme coin DOGE was another significant gainer with an increase in value of 33,2%, collecting new $8,7B. Uniswap and Theta were also significant gainers with a surge in market cap of more than 30%. There are a significant number of other altcoins who managed to gain between 10% and 20% w/w. There has been increased activity with circulating coins. Stellar added 0,4% of new coins to the market. IOTA increased the number of circulating coins by 0,3%, while Filecoin and Solada added 0,2% new coins to the market. Crypto futures market In line with spot market developments and increased positive sentiment, the crypto futures market gained during the week. BTC futures were last traded higher by more than 6%, while ETH futures surged by more than 26%. What is important to note is that BTC long term futures passed the level of $110K. In this sense, futures maturing in December 2026 closed the week at the level of $114.130, and those maturing as of the end of this year were last traded at $107.460. ETH long term futures are now trading above the $2,5K level. Futures maturing in December 2026 closed the week at $2.636, and those with maturity in December 2025 reached the last price at $2.450.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
$TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Massive Weekly Close Above 20WMA Massive Weekly Close for the CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL Crypto Market Cap above the .618 Fib and previous cycle's ATH. RSI still has room to push higher to retest this cycle's ATH. Price also closed above the 20WMA, which was the signal for the +70% Nov '24 Trump Pump 🚀 UpOnly Season for every coin only happens when the TOTAL Market Cap goes HIGHER. Otherwise we are stuck in a rotational cycle, where money from one narrative pumps then moves onto the next ie RWA, DePin, AI, Memes etc
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by jonnieking
Total Market Cap Weekly Chart: Ready to Explode?Hey traders! Let’s dive into this weekly TOTAL Crypto Market Cap chart. The headline says it all— Total Market Cap Is About to Explode , and we’re here to break it down! We’re seeing a massive expanding triangle formation, with the market cap currently at 3.21T , right at retest of triangle resistance. Historically, these patterns have led to parabolic moves — check out the 2019 - 2020 breakout! If history repeats, a breakout could send the market cap soaring toward 8.0T or even higher! However, if the breakout fails, we might see a pullback to the previous level of support around 2T . Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 3.66T (ATH) Support: 2T Breakout Target: 8.1T+ Breakdown Risk: 1.20T (latest strong resistance below 2.6T) Is the market cap about to go parabolic, or are we in for a fakeout? Let’s hear your thoughts below!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by ArShevelev
Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary CodeIn-Depth Study of Bitcoin's Value Trends: The Evolutionary Code Across Four Halvings Authors: SanTi Li, Nahida, Legolas Abstract: This paper focuses on Bitcoin's four halving events from 2012 to 2024, systematically reviewing the halving mechanism, inflation rate trends, and analyzing market performance before and after each halving to explore their impact on price movements. Through historical data analysis and macro comparisons, it is highlighted that Bitcoin has entered a cycle where its inflation rate is lower than that of gold, emphasizing its scarcity and establishing a long-term value logic comparable to traditional assets. Additionally, from the perspective of the four halving cycles, although the price increase post-2024 halving has been moderate, it is still in the accumulation phase, with the real window potentially opening between 2025 and 2026. The article concludes by discussing Bitcoin's core value foundations, including scarcity, decentralization mechanisms, and deflationary models, indicating its maturing logic as "digital gold." 1.Bitcoin Halving Cycle: Block Rewards and Inflation Rate Bitcoin, designed by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009, has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins. Initially, miners received 50 BTC per successfully mined block, with this reward halving approximately every 210,000 blocks (about four years), gradually reducing the new issuance. The halving cycle officially began in 2012, with subsequent halvings every four years. In 2024, the block reward became 3.125 BTC, leading to an annual inflation of 52,560 x 3.125 = 164,250 BTC, accounting for approximately 0.782% of the total supply. This inflation rate is already lower than that of most developed countries and gold, which has an annual production inflation rate of about 1.5%-2%. Currently, Bitcoin has entered a cycle with an inflation rate lower than that of gold. Fig.1 Bitcoin Halving Cycle Rewards and Inflation Rate Chart As shown in the chart: When each block reward was 50 BTC, the annual increase was approximately 52,560 x 50 = 2.628 million BTC, about 12.5% of the total 21 million supply. In 2025, with a 6.25 BTC reward per block, the annual increase is 52,560 x 6.25 = 328,500 BTC, about 1.564% of the total supply. As of around 14:00 on May 7, 2025, approximately 19,861,268 BTC have been mined, accounting for about 94.58% of the total supply, with a total market capitalization of approximately $2.034 trillion. Compared to the previous halving cycle in 2020, when about 18,385,031 BTC had been mined (approximately 87.5% of the total supply) and the total market capitalization was about $161.8 billion, the market cap has increased by approximately 1,236% over five years. In the next four years, the annual inflation rate will be only 0.782%. Fig.2 Comparison of Inflation Rates in Major Countries (2019-2025) In 2019, China's inflation rate was about 2.9%, and the United States' was 2.3%. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and subsequent stimulus measures, it was predicted that the U.S. would experience significant inflation from 2020 to 2022. Indeed, the U.S. inflation rate reached a high of 8%, later decreasing to around 2.2% by 2024 due to Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. China's annual inflation rate is about 0.2%, effectively controlling inflation among major countries. Most developed countries have an inflation rate of around 2.5%, but the actual experience of currency devaluation may be more pronounced than statistical data suggests. At this time, the latest Bitcoin halving will further reduce BTC's inflation rate to a new historical low of 0.782%. A lower inflation rate is generally beneficial for any asset, as it increases scarcity. However, this does not necessarily mean the asset's value will increase by 100% in the short term, but it is an important factor in resisting devaluation. ii.Comparative Analysis of Market Performance After Four Bitcoin Halvings Since Bitcoin's inception, each block reward halving has had a profound impact on BTC's market price. From 2012 to 2024, the four halving events exhibit relatively consistent cyclical characteristics. This paper compares market price trends before and after each halving to extract valuable patterns. History never repeats exactly, but before reaching peaks or nearing destruction, similar patterns often emerge. Fig.3 BTC Value Changes Across Four Halving Cycles The chart in Fig.3 summarizes BTC's trend data six months before and one year after each halving, as well as the highest point within the corresponding cycle. It shows that after each halving, Bitcoin's price experienced significant increases. Using the closing price on the halving day as a baseline: 2012 halving: over 8,000% increase within one year 2016 halving: approximately 286% increase 2020 halving: approximately 475% increase 2024 halving: approximately 31% increase within one year (as of now), with a peak increase of 68.75% ($109,588) 1.Significant Price Increases Six Months Before Halving Reviewing the four halving events, Bitcoin typically enters an upward trend six months prior to halving. For example: ●2012 halving: 141.03% increase compared to six months prior ●2024 halving: 118.88% increase compared to six months prior This phase often corresponds to the market gradually pricing in the "halving expectation," serving as a strong preparatory signal. 2.Core Explosion Period 6–12 Months After Halving, Not Necessarily the Peak Historical data shows that the 6–12 months following a halving are typically the main growth phase for Bitcoin: ●2012: 8,181.51% increase within one year ●2016: 286.29% increase ●2020: 475.64% increase ●2024: Currently, 31.18% increase, with a peak of 68.75% ($100.9k) Especially in 2012 and 2020, the structure showed "consolidation within six months, followed by an explosion." After one year, the market entered the most significant growth phase, reaching new historical highs. As the 2024 halving has just passed one year, if history repeats, the real explosion window may open between 2025 and Q1 2026. 3.First-Year Post-Halving Trends Provide Preliminary Reference After the 2024 halving, Bitcoin increased by 10.02% within a month but then experienced two months of fluctuation and correction, remaining in the accumulation phase. By October 2024 (six months post-halving), the price had only slightly increased by 6.30% compared to the halving day, far from entering the main growth phase. However, this is not uncommon historically, as both 2016 and 2020 saw significant price movements starting six months after the halving. 4.Bull Market Peaks Typically Occur 6–12 Months After Halving Based on data from the first three cycles, the highest prices relative to the halving day's closing price occurred in the mid-term before the next halving: ●2012: 9,237.15% increase ●2016: 2,825.84% increase ●2020: 700.28% increase In the current 2024 halving cycle, a peak of $109,588 has been observed, representing a 68.75% increase from the halving day, but it has not yet entered an exponential growth phase. This pattern applies only to the current cycle; if Bitcoin reaches values as high as $300,000–$500,000 or even $1 million, its valuation will be enormous. Unless there is significant devaluation of reference assets or further expansion of applications, such as interstellar exploration, it will be challenging to achieve multiple-fold growth in the next halving. Chart Summary: Bitcoin's historical halving cycles exhibit a highly consistent three-phase rhythm: Accumulation and price increase (six months before halving) Stable fluctuation (six months after halving) Main growth explosion (6–18 months after halving) As the 2024 halving approaches its one-year mark, the market may still be accumulating energy for the later explosion phase, similar to the prelude to 2017, coinciding with the early period of Trump's presidency. The Stock-to-Flow chart also indirectly supports the view that Bitcoin is still in a phase of accumulating strength. However, historical data and patterns are only for reference and should not be blindly followed; independent judgment and thorough research (DYOR) are essential. Fig.4 Bitcoin Price Stock-to-Flow Chart III. Scientific Attributes of Bitcoin's Long-Term Value The value of an asset stems from both consensus and intrinsic worth. Long-term consensus, in particular, must be grounded in the asset’s inherent advancement, scientific underpinnings, and irreplaceable first-mover advantage. Bitcoin (BTC) is not merely a crypto asset — it is the culmination of breakthroughs in technology, economics, mathematics, cryptography, and more. Its long-term value is not sustained by market speculation alone, but rather built on a rigorous, verifiable, and manipulation-resistant system design. 1. Scarcity As previously discussed, Bitcoin has a fixed total supply of 21 million coins, encoded in its protocol by Satoshi Nakamoto. Through a programmed halving mechanism, block rewards are reduced approximately every four years, with all coins expected to be mined by around the year 2140. Unlike fiat currencies which can be printed infinitely, Bitcoin’s deflationary nature supports its long-term appreciation from a supply-demand perspective. Scarcity is the cornerstone of Bitcoin’s inflation resistance and lays the foundation for its status as "digital gold". 2. Decentralization: Neutrality Guaranteed by Consensus Mechanism Bitcoin’s decentralized Proof-of-Work (PoW) consensus mechanism relies on computational power. Any node can verify transactions and participate in ledger maintenance. This structure avoids issues found in traditional financial systems such as central points of failure, power abuse, or systemic control. Its globally distributed nature significantly reduces the likelihood of a 51% attack. 3. Deflationary Model vs. Fiat Currency Devaluation As shown in Fig.2 (not included here), Bitcoin's built-in deflationary issuance model starkly contrasts with the inflationary nature of global fiat currencies. Since 2020, central banks around the world have launched large-scale QE programs, resulting in currency overflows. Bitcoin has increasingly demonstrated its role as a hedge against fiat depreciation and asset bubbles. It is becoming a safe haven for capital in an era of diminishing trust in fiat money. 4. Technological Attributes: Advanced Cryptography + P2P Network Design Bitcoin integrates multiple cutting-edge technologies: ●ECDSA (Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm): Ensures account security and private key signatures. ●SHA-256 Hash Algorithm: Guarantees data immutability. ●Merkle Tree Structure: Enables efficient verification of transactions within a block. ●Peer-to-Peer Network (P2P): Facilitates global value transfers without intermediaries. These technologies make Bitcoin a robust and unforgeable value transmission network, with infinite scalability potential — laying the groundwork for second-layer expansions like the Lightning Network and future applications. Bitcoin is not only an asset but also a masterpiece of cryptographic engineering. Future quantum-resistance updates are also worth watching. 5. A Challenger to the Global Financial Order: A Non-Sovereign Asset Amidst Dollar Transition The world is witnessing a wave of de-dollarization, with international settlements shifting toward local currencies, gold, and decentralized assets. With its non-sovereign neutrality, global accessibility, and scarcity, Bitcoin has become a crucial channel for capital transfer and value storage, especially in emerging markets and unstable regions. It offers an alternative financial model coexisting with — yet independent from — the dollar and gold: a neutral system of consensus-based currency. In times when national creditworthiness is questioned, reliance on algorithmic credibility could become a strategic moat. Of course, this will require further regulatory oversight to prevent illegal activities. 6. A Potential Financial Infrastructure for Interplanetary Civilizations (Speculative Idea) Bitcoin is the only current value protocol not reliant on any country, bank, or internet entity. Its ledger can exist across planetary nodes — as long as electricity and computing power are available, the network can be maintained. This structure makes it naturally suitable for future space exploration scenarios, such as on Mars or the Moon, where fast and direct usage would be advantageous. While human space exploration is still in its infancy, with no major breakthroughs in stable planetary settlement, this idea remains speculative. However, from a 30–50 year perspective, initial interplanetary applications may not be entirely implausible. Bitcoin (or credit-like tokens) could serve as the base-layer token of human digital civilization. Summary: BTC's Scientific Foundation ●Supply Ceiling (Scarcity) + Consensus Strength (Decentralization) ●Real-World Context: Weakening trust in fiat currency and expanding debt bubbles ●In the face of future uncertainty, Bitcoin's "anchor-like properties" become increasingly prominent. 4. Summary of BTC’s Long-Term Value Trends Through the analysis of Bitcoin's halving cycles and scientific fundamentals, the following conclusions can be drawn: Bitcoin’s four halving cycles to date have demonstrated a consistent market rhythm: price rises in anticipation before each halving, followed by short-term consolidation, then a major rally. Post-2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual inflation rate has dropped to 0.78% — lower than gold for the first time — reinforcing its role as a scarce asset. Against the backdrop of persistent global fiat inflation, expanding credit, and growing fiscal deficits, Bitcoin’s deflationary model and decentralized structure are attracting increasing attention and allocation from traditional capital. Although short-term volatility remains and black swan events cannot be ruled out, Bitcoin's long-term value logic is becoming clearer: it is not just a cryptocurrency, but a new type of asset based on cryptographic trust and decentralized consensus. In future cycles, Bitcoin's value potential, inflation-hedging ability, technical uniqueness, and expanding ecosystem will continue to empower it, building the essential value moat of a true “digital gold”. Disclaimer on Perspectives: Some people dismiss Bitcoin due to market speculation or scam-like projects. However, equating it entirely with such phenomena is an unobjective approach. Projects that rely solely on hype — such as many memecoins — tend to lack sustainability. Risk Warning: This article serves only as educational research and does not constitute investment advice. Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research and make independent judgments. Never blindly follow anyone — DYOR (Do Your Own Research). BINANCE:BTCUSD COINBASE:ETHUSD
by OuChiBoy
MARKETS week ahead: May 5 – 11Last week in the news Two major events during the previous week shaped the market sentiment. One is related to the Chinese government which noted a consideration to start the negotiations in order to relax currently imposed trade tariffs, while the other is related to stronger than expected US jobs market. The US equities finished the week higher, where S&P 500 closed the week at the level of 5.686. The US Dollar also gained strength on positive news. Inversely, the price of gold was traded at the lower grounds, ending the week at the level of $3.240. The US 10Y yields reacted on a strong jobs data, diminishing the potential recession in the US, where yields closed the week at the level of 4,30%. BTC was also among weekly gainers, where the level of $ 98K has been tested. The previous week was full of currently important US macro data, which brought back higher volatility on financial markets. The week started with jobs opening data. Posted JOLTs showed 7.192M jobs open in March, which was modestly below market expectation of 7,48M. Fed's favourite inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index, was standing at the level of 0% in March, same as core PCE. On a yearly basis, the PCE was 2,3%. However, the star of the week were the Non-farm payrolls, which increased by 177K in April, which was much better than anticipated 130K. This figure brought a relief to market participants, as it seems that the US economy is not entering into a recession. On the opposite side are some analysts who are noting that it is too early in time for trade tariffs to be reflected on the US economy and jobs data. Still, the GDP Growth rate preliminary for Q1 came as a surprise at the level of -0,3% for the quarter. The market was expecting to see the figure of +0,3%. Analysts are in consensus that such a surprising drop in the output of the US economy is a reflection of trade tariffs imposed by the US Administration in the previous period. A lot of investors' attention took the Assembly meeting of Berkshire Hataway, held on Saturday in Omaha, US. As announced, its founder and CEO Warren Buffet will step down from his CEO position as of the end of this year. His place will take Greg Abel, vice chairman of Berkshire Hataway for non-insurance operations. Reflecting on trade tariffs, Warren Buffet strongly criticized, noting “Trade tariffs are an act of war … trade should not be a weapon”. The FOMC meeting is scheduled to take place on May 6-7th. This meeting will be closely watched by markets, as it is expected that the Fed will provide their current view on the current state of the economy as well as potential negative implications of imposed trade tariffs. As per current market expectations, based on the CME FedWatch Tool, the first rate cut during this year is postponed for July this year, amid currently strong jobs data. CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market had another relatively positive week. News related to the potential relaxation of the US-China trade tariffs as well as better than expected US jobs data, left their positive market also on the crypto market. BTC was for one more time in the focus of market participants, however, the majority of other coins was not left behind. Total crypto market capitalization gained 1% compared to the week before, adding $35B to its total market cap. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of $106B on a daily basis, from $166B traded the week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -9%, with $283B outflow of funds. The leader of the market during the previous week was BTC. This coin managed to gain more than 2% on a weekly basis, adding total $ 39B to its market cap, but also to the total capitalization of the crypto market. ETH also had a relatively good week, considering gain of 1,15% in value adding $2,5B to its market cap. One of the significant weekly gainers was Monero, with a surge in market cap of 24%, adding $ 1B to the total value. On the opposite side were coins which did not manage to finish the week in green. Market favourite Solana lost 1% in value on a weekly basis, while BNB was last traded down by 1,4%. This week Uniswap ended with a loss of 11,8% on a weekly basis, while Algorand and Filecoin were traded down by around 8%. There has been sort of increased activity when coins in circulation are in question. Filecoin managed to increase its coins in circulation by 0,4%. IOTAs total coins on the market surged by 0,5%, while Stellar and DASH marked an increase of 0,2%, same as XRP. This week Maker decreased its number of circulating coins by 1,4%. Crypto futures market The positive market sentiment continues to be reflected in the crypto futures. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded higher during the previous week. BTC futures gained in value around 1,5% for all maturities. Futures maturing in December this year managed to pass the $100K level, ending the week at $101.305. At the same time, futures maturing in December next year closed the week at $107.390. ETH futures were traded higher by around 2% for all maturities. December 2026 ended the week at $1.938. Futures maturing a year later managed to pass the $2K level, closing the week at $2.084.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: April 28– May 4Last week in the news The market is currently perceiving that there is sort of relaxation in the US-China trade war. This was the major premise which boosted US equity markets. The S&P 500 gained around 4,6% on a weekly level. A positive market sentiment and short relaxation on uncertainty brought the price of gold lower by 2% on Friday, ending the week at the level of $3.318. On the same premise reacted the US Treasury bond market. The 10Y US benchmark closed the week lower, at the level of 4,25%. The crypto market was also part of the positive sentiment, as BTC managed to make a break-through from previous levels and reach levels above the $95K. The US-China trade war continues, however, with a softener rhetoric, which brought market sentiment to the positive side. Still, it remains quite confusing, where the majority of analysts are not sure what the final deal would look like. Actually, it seems that nobody knows, even the US Administration. The latest comment from the US President on the topic is that eventually tariff rates will “come down substantially, but it won't be zero”. Also, the US President commented that he has no intention of “firing Powell”. The Financial Times posted an article in which the journal noted that Apple was planning to shift all Iphones assembly to India. Analysts, involved in the matter, reacted to this news with arguments that such a move is highly questionable, both from the logistic side and from a tariffs side. The federal Reserve withdraws crypto guidance for banks. The Federal Reserve revoked its 2022 and 2023 guidance that required banks to notify or get approval before engaging in crypto or stablecoin activities. As Reuters reported during the previous week, based on six sources, the ECB is considering further cutting of its policy rates at the June meeting. The relaxing inflation and drop in the economic outlook ECB members see as a good reason to further decrease their reference interest rates. China is targeting the supremacy in the AI industry and development in comparison to its US counterparts. As news reported, the China President Xi Jinping called during the previous week for a “self-reliance and self-strengthening” in China within artificial intelligence. This now represents a key strategic area for China when it comes to their US counterparts. JPMorgan published the results of a survey among investors over their perception of the US economy in the future period. There has been a consensus on a high potential of stagflation, while the majority of participants perceive the weak US Dollar during this year. The major risk is coming from the ongoing trade war, which will have a negative impact on the US economy, as per survey. Crypto market cap The crypto market is in green again. After several weeks of struggling, the crypto market finally made its final break-through and increased the value of the total market capitalization. This move was supported by the relaxation of rhetoric of the US Administration in an US-China trade war. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 10% on a weekly basis, increasing its total value by $262B. Daily trading volumes almost doubled from the week before, trading around $166B on a daily basis. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -10%, with $318B outflow of funds. The major coins which drew the total crypto market to the higher grounds was BTC. The coin added $183B to its market cap, increasing it by more than 10% on a weekly basis. ETH also performed well, with an weekly inflow of $ 23B, which increased its market cap by 12%. Other major coins also performed well during the week. Solana added $5,4B to its market cap, which was an increase of 7,5%. DOGE surged by 14,8%, adding $3,4B to its market cap. Among higher gainers was IOTA, with a surge in value of 27,3%, LINK was traded higher by 15%, Algorand gained around 19% w/w. The majority of other coins gained above 10% on a weekly basis. This week there were almost no losers on the crypto market. As for coins in circulation, this week Polkadot and Filecoin added 0,6% of new coins to the market, same as EOS. Maker made a significant increase of 0,8% within a single week. Stablecoin Tether increased its number of coins by 1,7%, which was one of the highest increases for this stablecoin within this year. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market also reacted on a positive sentiment caused by relaxation in rhetoric regarding trade tariffs. BTC futures were traded higher by more than 12% for all maturities. The positive development is that the long term futures returned to the levels above the $100K. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $99.770, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $105.755. Similar situation is also with ETH futures. Positive is that the long term maturities reached levels above the $2K. In this sense December 2026 was closed at price $2.043, while futures maturing in December this year were last traded at round $1,9K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: April 21 – 27 | XBTFXLast week in the news Tariffs and inflation continue to be the major two words on the financial markets, shaping investors sentiment. The S&P 500 tried to start the week with a positive sentiment, but the two scary words spoiled the game, so the index ended the week almost flat, at the level of 5.282. On the other hand, the word “tariff” continues to strongly support the price of gold, which reached a fresh new all time highest level at $3.354. The US yields are showing a different sentiment, when it comes to potential negative impact on tariffs on the US economy, and especially, Fed's decision to make two rate cuts during the course of this year. The 10Y US benchmark yields dropped during the week, ending it at the level of 4,33%. The crypto market was left a bit behind investors' spotlight. BTC was testing the $85K resistance during the whole week, and was traded in a relatively short range. The news of the week was that the ECB cut its reference interest rates for one more time by 25bps. In an after-the-meeting speech, ECB President Lagarde put trade tensions at the central point and that further restrictiveness of the monetary policy is meaningless. She also noted that a potential cut of 50 bps was also on the table during the ECB meeting. The high uncertainty of potential impact of trade tariffs remains a concern not only for investors on the US markets, but also for the ECB. The ECB President Lagarde urged the introduction of the digital euro in Europe, during the press conference. She called for swift action on the legislative groundwork which will support the introduction of digital euro in the near future. She thinks that such a move is necessary in the current geopolitical environment, which will make the Euro economy more productive, competitive and resilient. There has been a discussion in the news during the previous week, if China is offloading its holdings of US assets. It was based on the news that the largest sellers of US Treasuries two weeks ago were Japan and China. As per analysts involved in the matter, China is still holding around 50% of its foreign portfolios in the US assets. However, referring to recent Chinese sale of US Treasuries, analysts are noting that it might be rather a way to stabilize the renminbi-dollar exchange rate, then actual offloading of US assets. It is also noted that a strong sale of US assets could make renminbi quite stronger, which is not in the best interest of China at this moment. The Canary Capital investment fund has filed with the SEC a proposal for a spot ETF which will track the price of Tron. The investment fund will also offer an extra yield through staking. As Cointelegraph is reporting, one of the largest retailers in Europe, German Spar, is testing payments in Bitcoin at its store in Zug in Switzerland. This is by far the major crypto retail trial in Europe. Crypto market cap CRYPTO MARKET The crypto market was relatively calm during the previous week. There has been a relatively smaller volatility compared to two weeks ago, which was part of markets focus on traditional markets and the word “tariffs”. There have been both weekly gainers and losers, while BTC managed to end the week flat compared to the week before. Total crypto market capitalization also remained flat on a weekly basis, with only a modest funds outflow of around $13B. Daily trading volumes were significantly decreased, to $73B from $130B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, still holds at -18%, with $580B outflow of funds. There have been both gainers and losers among altcoins on a weekly basis. The major coin, BTC remained relatively flat w/w, without significant changes. ETH continues to lose in value. Last week the coin lost 1,5% in value or around $3B. XRP was also on a losing side, decreasing its cap by 2,5% w/w, or $3B. Some of the significant weekly losers include Theta and ZCash with weekly losses of around 10% each, while DOGE was down by 10,6%, followed by ADA, with a drop in value of 9%. On the opposite side was Solana, with a weekly gain of 6% or $4B. Filecoin was traded higher by 3%, and Ethereum Classic ended the week higher by 2,5%. This week Filecoin had a much stronger weekly increase in coins on the market or 1,2%, which was significantly higher from average of 0,3% w/w. DOGE, Solana and Algorand had a weekly increase of circulating coins of 0,1%. Crypto futures market Crypto futures were also traded in a relaxed mode during the previous week. BTC futures were traded higher by around 1,2% for all maturities. BTC futures maturing as of the end of this year reached the last price at $88.895, while those maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $94.205. ETH short term futures price levels were increased by around 1,3% on a weekly basis, while the longer ones were traded higher by 0,9%. ETH futures maturing in December 2025 closed the week at the level of $1.667, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $1.796.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL Crypto Market Cap Monthly Candle Close numbers & sequence This is the TOTAL version of the Bitcoin chart I post every month It is not always the same but, on average, it has the same Candle colour but not always the same Size, due to influences of ALT coins. But what I want to draw your attention to is where that arrow is pointing. We have just had a RED Febuary and March candle close. This has only ever happened ONCE before. Late 2019 - Early 2020 Infact, in 2019 we had Dec RED, Jan GREEN, Feb RED, March RED And currently we have Dec RED, Jan GREEN, Feb RED, March RED, The 2020 March RED was the Covid dive, that was swiftly recovered Currently we have the "Trump Tariff Dive" In so many ways, we are repeating the early 2020 Sequence in the TOTAL Cap The Bitcoin Chart however, seems to be repeating the 2017 Sequence. In 2020, TOTAL market Ca [pApril and May both closed GREEN. while en-route to a New ATH in March 2021. A New cycle ATH in early 2026 is entirely possible though it would be Very Much out of sequence. Things are different in many way with Crypto now...We are under new Regimes.. Discount Nothing Interesting days indeed
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Orriginal
MARKETS week ahead: April 13 – 18Last week in the news Tariffs rollercoaster continued also during the previous week, with a glimpse of improved market sentiment. However, analysts are now questioning whether optimism is sustainable at this moment? The US Dollar significantly lost in value during the week, bringing the price of gold to its fresh, new all time highest level at $3.240. The US Treasuries had a strong reaction, where the 10Y benchmark yields continued to surge, ending the week at 4,49%. The US equities had another rollercoaster week. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 had an upside move of around 10%, which is extremely rarely seen on the equity markets. The index closed the week at the level of 5.363, after reaching its lowest weekly level at 4.845. The crypto market was also affected with the negative sentiment at the beginning of the week, but still, as of the week-end BTC managed to test the $85K resistance. All macroeconomic news are put aside at this moment, as the market is looking only at word “tariffs”, which is currently the most popular word also among world leaders. The US Administration said that they will put tariffs on hold for the majority of countries for the next 90 days, except for China. Another news is related to decreased tariffs to 10% which will now be imposed on the majority of countries in the world. However a tariffs-war between the US and China continues. At this moment, the latest news is that the US is imposing tariffs of 145% to China, while China is imposing tariffs of 125% on goods imported from the US. Whether this is going to be the final tariff outcome, no one knows. As per comments from China officials, they are not ready to back up. The Chinese finance minister commented “Even if the U.S. continues to impose higher tariffs, it will no longer make economic sense and will become a joke in the history of the world economy”. Many analysts agree with the absurdity of such high tariffs, while there are few who still believe in the “Art of the deal”. Negative effects of tariff war are already reflected on the US supply chain. Majority of goods imported from China cannot be distributed further to retail stores, as companies are not sure which tariffs to apply. On the other side are mortgage loans, which surged to the level of 7% for the period of 30 years. The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment results were posted during the previous week, with surprisingly lower figures from expected one. Certainly, currently most important are inflation expectations of US consumers, which surged to the level of 6,7% from 5% expectations in March. The recession fears are again among investors. The famous US investor and CEO of BlackRock, Larry Fink, noted during the previous week in an interview his opinion that the US is “very close, if not in, a recession now”. Regardless of the current sentiment, he thinks that “megatrends” in the US economy, like artificial intelligence, would persist. Crypto market cap CRYPTO MARKET Two weeks ago the crypto market was left behind investors' view during the general sell off on traditional markets, however, the situation changed during the start of the previous week. Some optimism came at the week-end, bringing another highly volatile week on the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 2% on a weekly basis, mostly due to the surge of BTC at Saturdays trading session, bringing additional $ 44B to the market cap. Daily trading volumes remained relatively stable compared to the week before, moving around $130B on a daily basis. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -18%, with $567B outflow of funds. Previous week was generally the volatile one, with almost equal numbers of coins which ended the week in red, and those with a green weekly gain. BTC gained mostly at Saturday's trading session, where it managed to end the week with a 2,3% weekly gain in market capitalization, bringing almost $ 40B to its market cap. On the opposite side was ETH, which lost significantly during the week, decreasing its market cap by 8,1% or almost $18B. At the same time, XRP was traded flat during the week, same as BNB. Among significant gainers was Solana, with a surge in market cap of more than 10%, or $6,3B. Maker was up by 5,3%, while Algorand surged by 4,5%. Among weekly losers were Monero, with a drop of more than 3%, Theta was down by 2,6%, same as Stellar. This week Uniswap and Stellar also closed the week in red, with a drop of around 5%. With respect to coins in circulation, this week, both XRP and Stellar increased their number of coins on the market by 0,2%. Solana also had an increase in the number of coins of 0,3%, while Filecoin, traditionally is increasing its circulating coins, this week by 0,4%. Crypto futures market The negative sentiment from the spot market was also reflected in the crypto futures. This week was different for BTC futures, as there has not been evident the same level, linear drop in the value of futures for all maturities. The short term futures had a modest weekly decrease of around 0,5%. At the same time December 2025 ended the week by 1,3% lower, at the level of $87.695. Longer maturities had a larger weekly drop in the value of futures of more than 4%. In this sense, December 2026 closed the week at $93.115, or 4,7% lower. On a positive side is that longer term maturities are still managing to hold above the $90K levels. ETH futures had a linear decrease in the value of future contacts by more than 13% for all maturities. December 2025 ended the week at the level of $1.650, while December 2026 was last traded at $1.778.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Pi Network has began to soar?Previously, Pi Network was keep on silent with the pioneers getting frustrated with declining prices. Just get reminded that Pi core team already mention that keep posted any NEWS coming. They are getting more working hours more than we had. So, pioneers just keep on what your doing daily, let the team core doing their part. Global payments company BANXA has made a big splash by purchasing over 30.5 million Pi Coins, worth around $19 million. But this isn’t just another crypto deal—it’s a clear sign that major players are starting to take the Pi Network seriously as a future leader in digital payments. With this move, BANXA now lets users buy Pi directly on its platform and send it straight to their wallets. This makes it much easier for users to access Pi, especially as the community keeps growing. BANXA’s purchase isn’t just about owning Pi—it’s a vote of confidence in the entire Pi Network. It shows that Pi is no longer just an experiment, but a growing digital economy with real-world potential. By supporting direct purchases and improving infrastructure, BANXA is helping Pi shift from a mined-only coin to one that has real value in the market. This is a new steps in the crypto digital payment to all nation wide, with uncertain economy crashing today lots of countries are seeking the safest way to sustain economy. The traditional way of economy has getting older and slower. My personal opinion is, Trump's crypto team now silently work closely with Pi core team to develop a new bond tie of digital economy, and will makeing a huge and powerfull worm hole of economy, that may suck any all kind of economy into it. Looks like a Si-Fi movie.. Lol.. The chat can be automaticly updated in every two hours, and I try to keep a new updates regarding Pi Coin , for the sake of Pi Pionners movement and Pi coin awarensess. Keep watch closely until th cup and handle chart pattern completed.
Long
by SL-Trades
1
SOL/USDT Wedge Breakout (08.04.2025)The SOL/USDT pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Wedge Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours. Possible Long Trade: Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern. Target Levels: 1st Resistance – 120.60 2nd Resistance – 130.63 🎁 Please hit the like button and 🎁 Leave a comment to support for My Post ! Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI_TA_TRADING Thank you.
Long
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
27
MARKETS week ahead: April 6 – 12Last week in the news A completely new dance is currently on the world stage, called the Tariff-economics. The US Administration shocked the world and financial markets with implementation of trade tariffs for almost all countries in the world. China was the first to respond, dragging down all financial markets globally. This was one of the worst trading weeks for US equities since the pandemic lockdown in 2020. Only on Friday, the S&P 500 lost almost 6%, and about 10% for the week. The price of gold dropped in a response to the margin calls from other markets, ending the week at the level of $3.037. In a fear of recession in the US, the 10Y US benchmark yields responded with a strong move toward the 3,87%, but ended the week at 3,99%. The price of BTC was relatively steady compared with other financial markets, but the question that is currently pending the answer was if this was actually good or maybe the bad news? The US Administration decided to start trade-war with the rest of the world. This was an action which shocked both markets and almost all governments in the world. The global sell-off in equities was triggered in a fear of recession and the impact which trade tariffs might have on global growth during this year. The situation was much worse when China announced implementation of 34% tariffs on all goods imported from the US. Other governments worldwide are expected to announce countermeasures in the weeks to come. Investors worldwide are currently very unhappy with actions from the US side, calling it the “biggest policy mistake in 95 years”. The US President Trump is not giving up from persuading Fed Chair Powell to cut interest rates. Last week President Trump said that the Fed Chair should “stop playing politics” and that now is the perfect time for an interest rate cut. Fed Chair Powell clearly noted at the last FOMC meeting that he will not publicly comment on any topic from the US Administration. When asked to comment on the impact of trade tariffs during the previous week, Powell shortly noted that they are “significantly larger than expected”. With respect to potential rate cuts during this year, the market is currently projecting four 25 bps cuts till the end of this year, regardless of the latest FOMC projections of only two rate cuts. Banking professionals are also cutting their initial projections of the equity markets developments for this year. The RBC analysts are now projecting the S&P 500 level of 4.200 for this year in case of the stagflation macroeconomic scenario. In the case of full recession, their revised projections for the index currently stand between 4.500 and 4.200. Crypto market cap Traditional markets had a very turbulent week and the worst one since the pandemic lockdown in 2020, however, the crypto market was moderately left behind the market attention. Considering developments with other financial assets, it could be noted that the crypto market had a relatively solid week. There had been both weekly losers but also gainers. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by 1% on a weekly basis, losing a minor $19B in cap. Daily trading volumes remained relatively stable on a weekly level, without a significant change of previous $132B. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -19%, with $611B outflow of funds. Generally BTC had a relatively stable week, with a minor weekly gain of 0,2% and with an inflow of $4B. ETH was standing on an opposite side, with a weekly loss of 3,5% in the market cap, or $8B. BNB was traded with a modest negative sentiment, with a weekly loss in market cap of $ 2B, or 2,4%. Market favorite Solana dropped by 5,2%, erasing $3,3B from the market cap. EOS was one of rare coins with an extreme market gain of 40% on a weekly basis. XRP was also traded a bit higher, gaining 0,3% for the week. Tron and ZCash also ended the week in positive territory, around 1,5% higher from the week before. Other altcoins were traded in a mixed manner, with a losing side prevailing. The majority of altcoins lost somewhere between 2% and 9%. One of the highest weekly increases of coins in circulation during the previous week had Solana and IOTA of 0,5% w/w. Algorand and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0,2%. Thai week, Tether had a drop in total number of coins on the market by 0,1%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market had a relatively calm week, in line with developments on the spot market. BTC futures were traded higher from 0,1% to 0,4% for various maturities. BTC futures maturing in December this year closed the week by 0,4% higher, at the level of $88.850. Those maturing in December 2026 closed the trading day at $97.705, almost flat from the week before. ETH futures were traded lowr above the 3% for all maturities. ETH futures maturing in December 2025 ended the week at $1.914, and those maturing a year later were last traded at $2.060.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: March 31 – April 6Last week in the news Trade tariffs and inflation were the most watched words during the previous week, which shaped the market sentiment. Although US equities tried to express some shy positivity, the University of Michigan consumer Sentiment on inflation expectations put a shadow on a positive sentiment. The US equity market was traded sharply to downside on Friday, where the S&P 500 lost 1,97% in value, ending the week at the level of 5.580. On the opposite side was the price of gold, which reached the fresh, new all time highest level at $3.080. The 10Y US Treasury benchmark yields also reacted strongly to increased inflation expectations, dropping on Friday to the level of 4,25%. The crypto market followed the general negative sentiment, where BTC ended the week modestly above the $82K. The US macro data published during the previous week, strongly impacted market sentiment. The PCE for February showed further modest increase in inflation, as the index reached 0,3% for the month and 2,5% on a yearly basis. Core PCE continues to be elevated, with an increase of 0,4% in February and +2,8% compared to the previous year. However, the highest surprise came from the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, final for March, where inflation expectations for this year were elevated to the level of 5,0%, a jump from previous 4,3%. At the same time, there has been an increase in inflation expectations for the next five years, which reached the level of 4,1% from previous 3,5%. The increased inflation expectations in line with news regarding trade tariffs put the negative sentiment among investors, where the US equity markets dropped sharply during Friday's trading session, as well as US Treasury yields. Another tech company above the $ 1B valuation is free for trading on the NASDAQ from the previous week. The company in question is CoreWawe, under ticker CRWV. The company is a seller of artificial intelligence in the cloud, and is a supplier of OpenAI. CoreWave is better known as one of the companies with the highest initial public offering of $1,5B. The achieved price at the first trading day on Friday was $40 per share. Analysts from Bank of America noted on Friday that, in their opinion, the equities in the US are still very expensive. The exact wording that was used is that the market “remains statistically expensive on almost every measure we track”. However, they acknowledged the recent correction, but remain cautious on the policy uncertainty. As news is reporting, Grayscale, the US based investment fund, filed with SEC for the approval for their first spot Avalanche exchange traded fund to be listed on NASDAQ. Grayscale for some time is managing the Avalanche Trust, which carries 2,5% yearly fee. If approved, the ETF will provide for a wider range of investors exposure toward AVAX token. Crypto market cap CRYPTO MARKET Markets were not happy with increased inflation expectations, while further rhetoric regarding new trade tariffs from the US Administration and other world governments are not providing any sort of confidence to investors. Market reacted in a negative manner during the previous week, dragging the crypto market toward the downside. Total crypto market capitalization was decreased by additional 3% or total $72B on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes were modestly increased to the level of $132B on a daily basis, from $92B traded a week before. Total crypto market increase from the beginning of this year, currently stands at -18%, with $592B outflow of funds. General negative market sentiment pulled the crypto market toward the downside, but not all altcoins ended the week in red. BTC had the highest decrease in market cap of $28B, decreased its value by 1,7% w/w. ETH lost $16B in value or 6,8%. Other major coins ended the week in a negative territory. XRP had a weekly drop in value of 10,7%, with a loss of FWB:15B in market cap. BNB was down by 3,1%, market favourite Solana decreased its value by 2,5%, while ADA dropped by 4,5%. Few coins finished the week with a positive weekly result. ZCash managed to add to its value almost 18%, Maker ended the week higher by 8,5%. With respect to coins in circulation, some of the highest weekly gains were marked with stablecoin Tether, with an increase in the number of coins by 0,5%. Solana`s coins in circulation were higher by 0,3%, while Polkadot increased the number of coins on the market by 0,6% w/w. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was also in a negative mood during the previous week. Although BTC lost around 1,7% in value on a weekly basis, its futures decreased much less, around 0,5% for all maturities. Still, for the last three weeks, BTC long term futures fell below the $100K level but are still holding above the $90K. Futures maturing in December this year closed the week at $88.500, which was a drop of around 1% w/w, while futures maturing in December 2026 were last traded at $97.570 or 0,44% lower w/w. ETH futures had a higher drop on a weekly basis, of more than 5%. In this sense, futures maturing in December 2025 achieved the last price at $1.983, and those maturing in December 2026 ended the week at $2.133.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Bitcoin Breakout Confirmed, Aiming for $160K Chart Analysis: Bitcoin has just confirmed a major breakout above a key resistance zone, signaling a strong bullish continuation. Let’s dive into the details: 1.Ascending Triangle Breakout: BTCUSD had been consolidating within an ascending triangle pattern since late 2024, with the upper resistance around $80,000 and a rising support trendline (highlighted in yellow). The breakout above $80,000 on strong volume confirms the bullish pattern, which is typically a precursor to significant upward moves. 2. Accumulation Zone: Before the breakout, Bitcoin spent several months in an accumulation zone between $53,837 and $80,000. This phase allowed buyers to build positions, setting the foundation for the current rally. 3.Price Targets: The measured move of the ascending triangle (height of the pattern) projects a target around $160,000. The height of the triangle is approximately $26,163 (from the base at $53,837 to the resistance at $80,000). Adding this to the breakout point ($80,000 + $26,163) gives a target of ~$106,163. However, considering Bitcoin’s historical tendency to overshoot during bull runs and the psychological significance of $160,000 (as noted on the chart), this level seems like a realistic target. 4. Support Levels: The previous resistance at $80,000 now acts as strong support. If BTC pulls back, this level should hold to maintain the bullish structure. Additional support lies around $70,000, aligning with the lower boundary of the recent consolidation range. 5. Momentum Indicators: While the chart doesn’t display specific indicators like RSI or MACD, the sharp upward move suggests strong momentum. Traders should monitor for overbought conditions on RSI (above 70) as BTC approaches higher levels, which could indicate a potential pullback. Trade Idea: Entry: Current price around $84,599.61 (post-breakout confirmation). Stop Loss: Below $78,000 (to account for minor pullbacks while staying above the breakout zone). Take Profit: $160,000 (primary target based on the pattern projection and psychological level). Risk/Reward Ratio: Approximately 1:12, making this a high-probability setup. Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: $100,000 (psychological), $120,000, $160,000 (target). Support: $80,000 (new support), $70,000 (secondary support). Market Context: Bitcoin’s breakout aligns with a broader crypto market uptrend, potentially fueled by positive fundamentals such as institutional adoption, favorable regulatory developments, or macroeconomic factors like inflation concerns driving demand for BTC as a store of value. Ethereum’s recent breakout (as seen in similar charts) also supports the bullish sentiment across the crypto market. Conclusion: BTCUSD has broken out of a multi-month consolidation pattern, confirming a bullish trend with a target of $160,000. The $80,000 level should now act as strong support, and any pullbacks to this zone could offer additional buying opportunities. Stay cautious of overbought conditions as BTC approaches higher resistance levels. Let’s see how far this rally can go!
BINANCE:BTCUSDLong
by sohaibfx
Buy BTC,it still has the potential to reboundBTC experienced a sharp short-term decline, breaking lower; however, the downward momentum has significantly slowed. Importantly, the recent pullback has not disrupted the broader upward consolidation structure, with the 84500-83500 zone continuing to provide strong support. Once the bearish sentiment fully subsides, I anticipate a relief rally or a technical rebound. Therefore, this pullback could present an excellent opportunity to go long on BTC. Consider entering long positions around the 84500-83500 support zone, targeting an initial upside move toward the 86000-86500 range. The trading strategy verification accuracy rate is more than 90%; one step ahead, exclusive access to trading strategies and real-time trading settings
Long
by Trader_Marvin