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Technical analysis of major crypto currencies: Feb 13 – 19Last week in the news A mixed week on financial markets. After the latest FOMC moves and speak of FED Chair Powell, there are still some mixed signals which investors are trying to sort out. The US equity market ended Friday’s trading slightly higher, after the worst week in more than a month. The crypto market lost some of its value, with Bitcoin holding above $21K and Ether still holding above $1.5K. Aside from the mixed macro sentiment, the crypto industry has been additionally hit by the news on the SEC moves toward staking crypto products. During the previous week, Kraken, one of the largest crypto exchanges, made a settlement of $30 million with the SEC on the charge that the company did not make a registration of their staking-as-a-service offer. At the same time, fears arouse on the market that Ethereum might be the next target of the SEC, considering their staking program. The SEC Chair Gary Gensler sent a message to other market participants to “take a note” and fully comply with the regulation on any programs which contain words “lend, yield or earn '', regardless of what the economics behind such programs are. Interesting announcement came from Binance last week. Namely, the company announced that, starting from February 8th, non-US customers will not be able to make deposits or withdrawals in the USD to or from their bank accounts. At the same time there has not been an explanation for such a strange decision. After this announcement there has been a spike of funds outflows from Binance to other exchangers and individual wallets, as many clients made a withdrawal of their USDT and USDC coins. A test network Sepolia will be pushed through the Shanghai upgrade on February 28th. The date has been agreed by the Ethereum developers. This will be the second network upgrade, after the Zhejiang test network has been already simulated during the previous week. As it has been announced, there will be one more test network upgrade before the final release of the Shanghai hark fork during March. News is reporting that PayPal placed their stablecoin project on hold, after their main crypto partner Paxos and the issuer of PAX stablecoin, has been placed under investigation by the New York Department of Financial Services. The decentralised autonomous organisation (DAO) called Friends with Benefits (FWB) announced on Twitter the introduction of a new kind of social network with the aim to gather enthusiasts of Web3 adoption and education. In order to join this community, a user needs to hold a minimum 75 FWB tokens. Crypto market cap After the latest FOMC moves and speak of FED Chair Powell, there are still some mixed signals which investors are trying to sort out. Strong jobs figures do not fit into a story about recession, while, on the other hand, it might imply further inflator pressures which might be in store for the future period. A week ahead is bringing data on US inflation in January and producer price index, which will be closely watched by the markets. In this sense, there could be some increased market volatility ahead. On the opposite side, the crypto market was under strong influence of SEC`s strike on the crypto staking products. Kraken already passed this SEC`s scanner with $30 million in fines and halt of offering of such products. SEC Chair Gensler sent a clear message to all market participants that all products which include words ``lend, yield or earn” needs to be properly registered with the SEC. The markets are now waging which crypto company might be next on the SEC`s list for potential penalty. This news made a negative impact on the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization was decreased during the week by 7%, impacting outflow of $73B from the market. The capitalization fell below $1 trillion for one more time. Daily trading volumes were additionally decreased from the week before, moving on average around $75B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 28% since the beginning of this year, adding total $211B to the market cap. Weekly drop in total market capitalization of $73B was led mostly by the major coins on the market, however, there are rare coins which ended the week in green. BTC, ETH and BNB participated with 75% in total market drop during the week, by losing the most in nominal values. BTC` market cap was down by more than 7% or $32B, and was followed by ETH, with a decrease in cap of almost $19B or more than 9%. BNB`s market cap had an outflow of $3.5B or more than 6.6%. Altcoins which lost in value more than $1B were XRP, which was down by $1.5B or 7%, DOGE with a drop of $1.6B or almost 13%, Cardano dropped by $1.5B or 10%, and Solana with a decrease of $1.5B or 16.5%. Majority of other altcoins lost less than 10% in value. As for coins in circulation, Polkadot was a surprise of the week, by managing to increase its total circulating coins by 11% on a weekly basis. Filecoin continues its rally with circulating coins, adding almost 3% during the previous week. Crypto futures market General negative crypto market sentiment caused by SEC`s strike on the crypto staking products, made an impact for the crypto futures to trade lower compared to the week before. BTC short term futures were traded lower by more than 8%, while December 2023 was closed 6.4% lower, at a price of $22.6K. Futures maturing in December 2024 were down by 7.7% on a weekly basis, trading around $22.4K. ETH short term futures ended the week down around 10%, while longer maturities were lower by more than 6% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year were traded modestly below $1.6K, while those maturing in December 2024 were modestly higher from $1.6K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
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by ceciliones
5
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, February 06 – 12Last week in the news Central bankers made a previous week quite a busy one on the financial markets. Both FED and ECB raised interest rates fulfilling market expectations. Equities were traded in a mixed mode after the posted job figures in the US, while the crypto market was holding strongly. Bitcoin is finishing the week above $23K, Ether is still holding above $1.6K. As it has been expected, FED increased the reference interest rate by additional 25 bps aimed to cope with increasing inflation. Such a decision was expected by markets and increased anticipation of potential further slowdown in monetary tightening. In a statement after the meeting, FED Chair Powell noted the recent drop in inflation as a positive sign; however, the FED will need more evidence that the inflation took the actual decreasing course. On several occasions, he also noted that the FED will have new forecasts in March, which will provide more information over the expected future course of macroeconomic developments. However, equity markets were closed in red on Friday, after the posted jobs report for the US. Namely, markets were shaken by the unexpectedly better than anticipated jobs figures, where nonfarm payrolls in January were increased by 517K much higher from anticipated 187K. At the same time, the unemployment rate was down to 3,4%, from 3,6% posted previously, which is its lowest level for the last 50 years. Such strong figures increased investors expectations that FED`s further rate increases might continue during the course of this year, at least to the level of 5%-5.25%, as per latest CME data. During the week the European Central Bank also lifted its interest rate by additional 50 bps, with high potential for another 50 bps lift in March, as per Lagarde`s statement. The India`s Enforcement Directorate entered the premises of the CEO of the crypto exchanger WazirX, Sammer Mhatre, after the exchange has been under investigation for support of money laundering activities of 16 companies in tech industry. Binance CEO, CZ, used this opportunity to call crypto investors to transfer their funds from WazirX to Binance. At the same time he tweeted that Binance does not own any shares in Zanmai Labs, however, a co-founder of WazirX, Nischal Shetty, noted in an interview with CoinDesk that “WazirX is the technology which we sold to Binance”. Rostin Behnan, chairman of the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, noted in his speech during the previous week that the agency had increased the budget for this year which will be used for “growing our enforcement and surveillance teams” for the digital assets. Crypto market cap FED increased interest rates for another time by 25 bps during the previous week. Such a move was expected by the market, however, the strong jobs market put some doubts into investors' sentiment that future monetary tightening might soon come to an end. Namely, in January, the US added 517K of nonfarm payrolls, which was much higher from anticipated 187K. At the same time the jobless rate fell down to a 50-years minimum of 3,4%. This put investors in a doubt that the FED will halt further rate increases during the course of this year. The crypto market reacted quite positively to the FED`s slower increase of interest rates and added $40B or 4% to its total market cap during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization still holds modestly above $1 trillion. On the other hand, daily trading volumes were further decreased to the level of $82B on a daily basis, from $117B traded previously. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 38% since the beginning of this year, adding total $284B to the market cap. The crypto market is finishing another week since the beginning of this year in green. Last week almost all coins gained in value. Leading coins on the market contributed the most in nominal figures to the increase of the total market cap. The winner of the week was Ether, with an increase in cap by more than 6%, adding almost $12B to its market cap. Bitcoin lagged behind ETH, with a surge in market cap by $7.7B, which is an increase of 1.7% on a weekly basis. Binance Coin also had a relatively good week, as it managed to increase its cap by $4B or more than 8% within a single week. Another altcoin with good performance was Polygon, with a surge in cap by almost 13%, adding $1.2B in its total value. In a relative terms DASH had good performance, with an increase of 21%, and is followed by Litecoin with a surge in cap by almost 14% and OMG Network, with an increase of 10% within a single week. One of the rare losers in value was Monero, who lost more than 4%. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to gain strongly, adding 1.4% of coins, while Tether continues to modestly recover, with an increase in circulating coins by 0.8%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market continues to move in a positive direction. In line with the spot market, both BTC and ETH futures gained during the previous week. On a positive side is also that the longer maturities gained in price more than the shorter ones. In this sense, both BTC December 2023 and December 2024 maturities gained more than 3% both, while ETH futures for the same period gained around 5%. Short term futures were traded higher by 1% for BTC and more than 3% for ETH. BTC futures ending this year finished the week at level of $24.145, while ETH futures for the same period were traded at level $1.709.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies: Jan 30 – Feb 5Last week in the news It was a relatively calm week on financial markets in the wake of the coming FOMC meeting on the first day of February. In this sense, some higher volatility might be back on the market, especially if FED hikes rates by 25bps, as the market is expecting. Positive sentiment for equity markets across US and EU were published GDP data for the US, whose economy expanded in Q4 by 2,9%, better than forecasted 2,6%. Still, recession fears remain high on the markets. Bitcoin is finishing the week by testing $23K resistance, while Ether is holding above $1.5K. Equity markets across the US and EU were supported during the previous week by better than expected GDP data for the US. The US economy rose by 2,9% in Q4 2022 which was better from the market estimate of 2,6%. Still, some slow down in the output of the US economy is evident, considering that Q3 GDP post was 3,2%. Regardless of the better than expected results, the fear of a coming recession is still strong among investors on the market. As it takes time for the monetary measures to reflect in the real economy, the currently ongoing series of layoffs in the US and across the world, and the slowdown of China's output, might all result in a gradual decrease of economic output in the coming period. As of February 1st the FED will announce a decision over the further rate increases. The market is expecting a further 25 bps hike, a slowdown from previous higher increases, which would be a certain signal that the FED is heading toward the end of its monetary tightening. Certainly, the week ahead will be an important week for the financial markets and fundamentals. Current lay-offs wave in the crypto industry continues. During the previous week a crypto-exchange company Luno, which is part of the Digital Currency Group, announced that it will cut 330 jobs, which is roughly one third of their current number of employees. As a reason for such a step the management of the company noticed a very hard previous year for the tech industry, as it has significantly impacted their growth and revenues. As Coindesk is reporting the investment firm SkyBridge Capital, owned by famous investor, Antony Scaramucci, lost 39% of its value due to the crypto coins downturn during the previous year, as well as investments into collapsed FTX exchanger. Due to this huge loss in value, the investors are seeking a redemption of about 60% of the fund's capital. The non-fungible tokens are again expanding their presence in the news. It comes after the crypto winter, where investors and people from the industry are searching new ways in order to further expand the use of NFT`s. News attention came after the Aptos (APT) token surged by more than 300% since the beginning of the year. The management of the Aptos company is looking at the expansion of the use of NFT`s above the current use as a collectables and into the NFT`s as the exchangers of the value. Crypto market cap After a quite optimistic beginning of the year, the crypto market slowed down during the previous week. The current economic and crypto winter news were exhausted, and the market is currently waiting for new signals in order to choose the trading side. Latest posted figures on US GDP shows that the US economy is still able to sustain extreme monetary tightening from the FED, however, insecurity over the potential higher recession in the US and the rest of the world, especially China, is still shaping investors confidence. In the week ahead, FOMC will decide on further rate hike, in which sense, some volatility is coming on markets, after a relatively quiet week. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, still holding at $1 trillion. Although the main coins lost some of their value, altcoins saved the game during the week, adding counterbalance to the total crypto cap to remain flat. Daily trading volumes decreased compared to a week before, moving around $80B on a daily basis, which is a drop from $117B, or $153B three weeks ago. It is evidence that the market is drying up as the investors are waiting for a new market signal in order to choose a trading side. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 33% since the beginning of this year, adding total $246B to the market cap, and without change from a week before. Altcoins saved the week for the crypto market. While major coins performed relatively flat, or with a small drop in value, the majority of altcoins dragged the capital back on the market, leading to total crypto market capitalization flat on a weekly basis. Bitcoin and Binance Coin remained relatively flat compared to the week before in terms to their market capitalization, while Ether passed a struggle, losing almost $10B in value, decreasing the market cap by less than 5%. Tether had a relatively good week, where the coin added $1B to the value of its market cap or 1.5%. Some of the highest weekly winners in relative terms were OMG Network, adding more than 11% to its cap, Polygon, with a surge of 8.5% or Algorand, with an increase of 6.5%. Filecoin continues to increase its coins in circulation, adding 1.5% of coins during the previous week, and increasing its market cap by 9.5% within a single week. Crypto futures market Developments from the spot market were reflected in the prices of both BTC and ETH futures during the previous week. However, it should be mentioned another important development, which is related to slope reversion of the futures curve. Namely, after some time we have finally faced the situation that prices for longer term futures are higher from the short term ones. This might be perceived as an important break-through on the market, as indicates that investors are finally perceiving the end of the crypto winter as well as, improvement in the macroeconomic environment which would again lead to increase in value of assets, including crypto. BTC short term futures finished the previous week higher by some 4% on average. At the same time longer term futures were up more than 11%, with December 2023 ending the week at the price of $23.390. Prices for December 2024 were higher by more than 13% on a weekly basis, ending the week at level of $23.565. In line with the spot market, ETH`s short term futures were down by some 2%. At the same time, longer term futures were traded higher by 6%, with December 2023 ending the week at $1.623. Futures maturing in December 2024 were 9.5% higher from the week before, ending the week at level of $1.639.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, January 23 – 29Last week in the news Positive sentiment from the week before, continued also during the previous week. Both EU and US equity markets gained, in expectation that the FED will slow down its monetary tightening and increase of reference interest rates. The crypto market is also weighing on the same news, despite further negative news from the industry related to FTX contingencies. Bitcoin broke $23K, while Ether is holding above $1.6K. The FTX collapse contingencies continue on the crypto market. During the previous week the crypto lending firm Genesis filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company filled in its documents with over 100.000 creditors. It is also noted that the company owes $3.5 billion to 50 largest creditors. One of the names that is mentioned is Stellar Development foundation, which is founded as a non-profit organisation, with the aim to promote the Stellar blockchain. For some time now Genesis has been in the news over the speculations on its exposures toward the FTX exchanger and problems in their lending business. Layoffs in the tech and crypto industry continue. As per a letter submitted to Google employees, the CEO of Google, Sundar Pichai, noted that the company will start laying off a total 12.000 of its staff in the U.S. and in other countries. Google is just another large tech company who decided on this step in expectation of the forthcoming recession, and after Microsoft announced a decrease of 10.000 of its workforce and Amazon of 18.000. The CryptoCompare issued a report on the crypto market trends during the year 2022, noting that the Binance exchanger gained the highest share of the exchangers market, increasing it by 16,3% y/y. As it has been noted in the report, the increase is a result of higher adoption of cryptocurrencies, “particularly in the emerging markets”. Although China banned both use of the cryptocurrencies and its mining, still, they are looking ahead to the introduction of their own digital currency called digital yuan. For a few years the project has been developed and is currently in the testing phase. As Coindesk is reporting, the smart-contract functionality for digital yuan is enabled for the e-commerce platform Maituan, which is one of the largest platforms in China for food delivery. This would be the first time that the smart contracts for the CBDC will be tested on a large scale of retail users. The big 4 rating agencies are still not convinced over the future performance of the Coinbase (COIN). During the previous week the rating agency Moody's downgraded this company to so-called “junk” or non-investment grade. The agency is noting “weakened revenue and cash flow generation capacity” for such an action, coming from continuous challenges from the operating environment. Crypto market cap The optimism from the previous week is still holding on the market. Equities have positively perceived voicing from several FED officials who will support further tightening of the US monetary policy, but with lower rates increases, at 25 bps. Since this is in line with market expectations, the markets had another green week. Contingencies of the FTX collapse continued on the crypto market, with Genesis filling for the Chapter 11, which was also in line with the market expectations. With the latest surge in the crypto coin prices, total crypto market capitalization reached again $1 trillion, reaching the level from the beginning of November last year. During the previous week the crypto market surged by additional 8%, adding $71B to its cap, outperforming equity markets for one more time. The largest contributors of this surge were the most popular coins on the market. Still, daily trading volumes were modestly decreased during the week, reaching $117B on a weekly basis, which is a drop from $153B traded during a week before. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 33% since the beginning of this year, adding total $246B to the market cap. Increase in the total crypto market capitalization during the previous week was mostly supported by the two largest coins on the market, BTC and ETH. Bitcoin outperformed the market with a surge in cap of more than 11%, adding $45.7B to its capitalization on a weekly basis. BTC was followed by ETH, which added $16.2B to market cap, increasing it by 8.7%. Another coin with quite good weekly performance in nominal terms was Solana, with a gain of $1.18B, or more than 14% within a single week. This was one of the rare weeks when Binance Coin did not contribute significantly to total crypto market capitalization. Namely, although the price of the coin increased during the week, still, its circulating coins were down by 1.3%, which held BNB`s market cap to almost the same level as it was during the week before. Filecoin continues to keep market attention, through an increase in its market cap by 18.5% within a single week, but, at the same time, it increased its coins in circulation by additional 2.2%. Other altcoins performed on a solid ground during the week, mostly increasing their market cap from 0% up to 10%. Crypto futures market General market optimism is continuing to fuel the crypto futures market. During the previous week both long and short term futures for BTC and ETH gained in prices during the week. BTC short term futures were traded more than 12% higher from the week before, while ETH futures were up by more than 13% on average. As for the long term futures for BTC, the prices have increased by more than 10% w/w, however, they are still holding in inverted mood, as December 2023 ended the week at price $20.905, while December 2024 finished the week at price of $20.695. ETH long term futures were up at the lower pace from the short term ones, adding more than 8% in price on a weekly basis. Also, ETH futures prices continue to move in inverted shape, where December 2023 maturing futures were traded at price $1.531, and December 2024 at $1.497. Inverted futures prices are showing that investors continue to perceive the influence of recession in the US, potentially in the rest of the world, as a main driver of the crypto future prices.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, January 16 – 22Last week in the news A bit of optimism is back on the financial markets as inflation in the US slows down. Major US indexes finished the week in green. On the other side, the crypto market also benefited from positive news, as Bitcoin reached a level of $21K, and Ether is back to $1.5K. It was a relatively good start of the new year on the financial markets. Long awaited slowdown in inflation figures are finally released, increasing the probability that the FED will slow down with its further rate increases. However, the macro situation continues to be fragile, in which sense, not all investors are still back on the market. As per official data published on Thursday, the US core inflation fell to 5.7% in December, while the inflation rate was down to 6.5% from 7.1% posted previously. Comments from some FED officials were related to the possibility for FED to further increase its interest rates by 25bps, which would be a significant drop in increases from several previous 75 bps. Crypto.com is another company from the crypto industry which announced job cuts by 20% during this year. They have noted the stress around FTX collapse as a reason for such a decision, as it has hurt the trust in the crypto industry. It is another company in line with several others like Coinbase or Houbi who announced job cuts during this year. Ethereum network is again in the spotlight of the market, in anticipation of the next, so called “Shanghai hard fork” which is expected to be released in March this year. The fork is supposed to allow users of the staked ETH to unlock their coins on the blockchain. As per analysts involved in a matter, it is questionable if the new fork will support the price of ETH, as holders might start selling their ETH holdings after they have been released for free use. Cardano developer, Input Output Global (IOG), announced the release of a toolkit which would allow developers to build side chains. In this way, it would be allowed to side-chains to benefit from network security and decentralisation and increase the scalability of the Cardano`s network. The announcement modestly supported ADA, Cardano`s native token, which rose 3% after the announcement. Another hard fork is announced for Bitcoin Cash, which will be released in May this year. This fork should add to the security of the network and allow developers to build decentralised applications directly to token. In an interview with CNBC, the SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci, noted that there is possibility for this fund to buy back stake which FTX exchanger has in this fund. However, it will take several months until the transaction could occur, as it will be part of the FTX`s bankruptcy proceedings. Crypto market cap Long awaited optimism is back on the markets. Latest published figures for the US inflation are clearly showing that the inflation in the US took a downtrend. However, FED`s targeted 2% inflation is still on the long stick, in which sense, there is a high possibility that the FED will continue with increase of benchmark interest rates, but at lower levels, i.e. 25bps. This was also commented on by some FED officials during the previous week. It was a signal for the markets that monetary tightening might soon come to an end, and that market has probably bottomed. Still, not all investors are back on the market, considering that there are those with the opinion that the recession is coming to the US and that there is still enough space for the market to reach its bottom. Anyhow, it was the first extremely good week for the crypto market, after a longer period of time, since the total market capitalization was increased by 19% within a single week, adding $147B to total cap. Daily trading volumes were also increased and back to old figures, moving around $153B on a daily basis, compared to $44B a week before. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 23% since the beginning of this year, adding total $175B to market cap. All coins gained during the previous week, supported by the market optimism. Highest contribution to increase of total market cap came from major coins on the market, but few other altcoins had extremely good performance during the week. In nominal terms the highest gainer was Bitcoin, with an increase in market cap of $75B or 23% within a single week. BTC is followed by ETH, who managed to add $32B to its market cap or almost 21%. Third place belongs to BNB, with a surge in the market cap by $6.8B or 16%. Solana is one of the coins which outperformed the majority of other altcoins, and managed to add $3.3B to its cap, and increase it by an incredible 69% on a weekly basis. Among other altcoins, significant performance in relative terms had Cardano, who increased cap by 27%, Polkadot, with a surge of 30% and Maker, with increase of 32% on a weekly basis. As for coins in circulation, the previous week was relatively calm, with both Ripple`s and Stellar`s increase of total circulating coins by 0.3% each. Crypto futures market Optimism from the spot market was evident also in crypto futures. Both short term and long term futures for both BTC and ETH were traded higher by some 17% and 15% respectively. However, these percentages should be taken with reserve, considering that CME market closes on Friday, in which sense, Saturday`s trading on the spot market has not been included in these percentages. Long term BTC futures were traded higher by some 13% , with December 2023 ending Friday`s trading at level of $18.8K, and December next year at level of $18.6K. ETH futures for the same periods were traded up by 14%, with December 2023 ending the trading week at level of $1.4K, and December next year at level of $1.378. Despite the latest market optimism, what is still evident on the futures market is the inverted curve, where futures prices for shorter terms are higher from the ones on the long run. It shows that investors are still not sure regarding the long term prospectus for the crypto market in the long run, especially considering that fears of recession are still quite dominant on financial markets.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, January 9 – 15Last week in the news After a Holiday season, the financial markets started the New Year in a relaxed mode. During the first week of January “old market stories” continued to be in the spotlight of investors. Certainly, inflation is still on the top of the list. The US Dow index surged by 700 points during the first trading week, as investors are expecting for inflation to slow down further which would impact FED to halt monetary tightening. The crypto market remained relatively flat, with Bitcoin ending the week below $17K, and Ether below $1.3K. Inflation was certainly the most popular word during the whole previous year on financial markets, while the second place, on the crypto market, could take the word lay-offs. Both words continue to be in the spotlight of the markets as fear of recession increases. The crypto winter on the crypto market is still on stage. Lay-offs in this industry (as well in many others) continued during the first week of January. Huobi, a Seychelles-based crypto exchanger, announced its decision to cut its labour force globally by 20%. Within the company this move was explained as “structural adjustment” during the bear market. At the same time, Genesis Trading, a part of Digital Currency Group, will cut an additional 30% of its staff, after firing 20% of employees during the last year. It is still unclear where exactly the problem lies with this company, but analysts agree that the main issues for Genesis Trading started after the collapse of the FTX exchanger. On the other hand, crypto exchanger Kraken stated that they will stop the company's operations on Japan`s markets, due to weak market conditions in this country. The FTX scandal as of the end of the last year is still contingent on the market. The US regulators issued a warning for US banks on their exposures with cryptocurrencies. The regulators warned regarding risks like scams, fraud, and contagion risks originating from inter-connections among crypto market participants. Their conclusion is that any holdings of crypto assets on public or decentralised platforms by banks, could not be treated as sound banking practice. Another contingent of the FTX scandal. Silvergate Capital was downgraded by the major US banks and rating agencies. Analysts agree that the strong funds outflow that this institution experienced after exposure of its connections with FTX, would have significant implications on the institution`s profitability in the long run, due to increased costs of liquidity and impairments of technology assets, as well as layoff programs. Bearish market trend for this company is confirmed also by Cathy Wood`s ARK Invest fund, which sold about $5M of Silvergate stocks. However, at the same time Cathy continues to bet on COIN as the fund bought additional $6M of COIN shares. Crypto market cap During the Holiday season, markets were traded in a relatively relaxed mode. There has not been too much volatility, however, daily trading volumes were relatively low, which is usual during this period of the year. The crypto market suffered crypto winter during the previous year and finished it with a total funds outflow of 65% y/y, with total outflow of $1.426B. First week of this year was relatively calm but market managed to increase market cap by 4%, adding modest $27B to its total capitalization. Daily trading volumes continue to be decreased, reaching $44B on a daily basis during the first week of January. Regardless of low trading volumes, the start of this year was positive on the crypto market. Majority of coins gained during the week, both in market value and in circulating coins. Major coins on the market were traded in a relatively mixed manner. Bitcoin ended the first week relatively flat compared to the last week of December, however, Ether managed to gain additional $10B in market cap, which is an increase of 7%. Binance Coin also managed to erase some of the losses from the end of the year before, adding 10% to its market cap or almost $4B. Some of the coin with significant gains in relative terms were Ethereum Classic with a surge of 25%, Litecoin which added almost 19% to its market cap and Filecoin, which was up by 15%. It should be mentioned that Filecoin continued to strongly increase its coins in circulation, adding 4.8% since the end of the last year. Algorand also increased its circulating coins by 1.0%, along with Zcash and Solana, which both gained an additional 0.9% in coins in circulation. Crypto futures market Despite the optimistic new year`s start of the spot crypto market, the crypto futures market continues to be sceptical regarding the future prices of both BTC and ETH. In line with the spot market developments, short term futures for ETH were up by some 7%, while for BTC remained relatively flat. The maturity curve for both coins continues to be inverted, which was a trend started during the previous year. BTC futures maturing as of the end of this year were closed at $16.6K, while those maturing in December 2024 were holding around $16.5K. Situation is the same with ETH futures, which closed the week at $1.220 for maturities as of the end of this year, and at $1.200 for maturities as of the end of the next year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, December 19 -25Last week in the news The pivotal point for financial markets during the previous week were moves from central bankers to fight inflation, where fears of forthcoming recession were shaping week-end investors' confidence. Both EU and US markets were closed in red. The crypto market also ended the week with negative sentiment. Bitcoin is ending the week modestly above $16K, and Ether above $1.1K. Previous week was under the impact of both release of the US inflation data, and December`s FOMC meeting. Positive news for financial markets came on Tuesday, when official data showed a slowdown in US inflation data, with yearly inflation rate of 7.1% in November, down from 7.7% posted previously. This was a certain sign for financial markets that the FED will slow down its further interest rate increases. Wednesday was a FOMC day when members increased further rates by 50bps, however, in a statement after the meeting, FED Chair Powell said a few things which were not welcomed by investors. Most important news is that the US economy is certainly entering into recession, which might last through the year 2023. First half of the week was marked with investor`s optimism, while week-end was in a bit pessimistic mood as FED decreased market expectations on “soft landing” of the economy. During the same week the European, Swiss and UK central banks also increased their reference interest rates. Even after a month of the FTX scandal, the dust over contingencies is still not settling. Previous week, the crypto exchanger Binance was in the news spotlight as one of the first investors in the fallen exchanger FTX. FTX bankruptcy proceedings showed that last year Binance sold its equity possessions in FTX, receiving about $2.1 billion. In an interview with CNBC, the CEO of Binance, Zhao Changpeng, tried to calm down the public, noting that the company's financials are in order, and that there are no more ties with FTX. Negative news triggered clients funds outflows, increasing daily withdrawals to $1.14 billion on Tuesday. At the same time, a spokesperson from Binance said that the company managed to go through a stressful time because they keep clients' funds in custody. The annual report of the Treasury`s Financial Stability Oversight Council has been approved on Friday. Major points from this report are related to conclusion that latest fall of the FTX did not had any significant impact on US financial system. Another major topic was the Council's call for the US Congress to pass a bill by which it will be allowed to US official agencies to set the rules and dive deeper into the whole crypto industry, including the supervision of activities related to the cryptos. At the same time, they acknowledged that stablecoins represent less riskier types of cryptos. The global regulator of banking industry, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, (BCBS) proposed banking rules for the crypto assets, by which it would be allowed for banks to hold up to 2% of capital in the crypto assets and non-fungible tokens, but it was recommended for this figures not to be higher from 1%. The new rules will be applicable starting from January 2025. On the other hand, bankers are commenting that this exposure is too low in order to support any further innovations through distributed ledger technology. Crypto market cap Although the previous week was promising one in expectation of the positive news that the inflation is finally over and that FED's monetary measures might finally ease, news regarding forthcoming recession put investors again into negative sentiment. Namely, in a speech after the FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Powell noted FED`s expectations that the unemployment will increase in Y2023 due to recession in the US. At the beginning of the week investors were thrilled on the possibility that the agony called inflation and monetary tightening might finally end, the recession news pushed the investors’ confidence again into the red zone. In addition to negative macroeconomic news, the crypto market continues to be under the influence of potential FTX contingencies. The crypto market also finished the week in red, decreasing its total capitalization by additional $50B, or by 6% on a weekly basis, led by ETH and BNB. Daily trading volumes remained at lower levels, moving above $70B on a daily basis. Investors continue to be on hold. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year dropped further to the level of $1.490B, which is a decrease of 65% on a yearly basis. Although the previous week started in a positive manner, still week –end brought some negative sentiment on the crypto market, decreasing total market cap by 6%. This drop was led by major altcoins, ETH, DOGE and BNB, while BTC managed to remain flat compared to the week before. ETH had another significant drop in market cap by 7% where the coin lost even $11B in value. ETH was followed by BNB, which decreased total capitalization by more than $8B or 18%, after negative news regarding Binance potential exposure toward FTX exchange. DOGE was another major altcoin with a pretty negative weekly performance of minus $2.5B in market cap, or a drop of almost 20% in value. All other altcoins finished the week in red, where the most significant drop in relative terms had Filecoin, with a drop of 30% in value, IOTA was traded down by 19%, ADA also had a drop of 15%. Regardless of a drop in value, Filecoin continued its year’s rally in total coins in circulation, adding more than 2% during the previous week. Crypto futures market It was a pretty bumpy week on the crypto futures market, but regardless of small drop in both BTC and ETH short term futures prices, the futures curve managed to change its slope after several months in its inversion. It points to market expectations on the probability that the crypto market has reached its bottom line and that future periods might bring some moves in a positive direction. Although it is still early to confirm such a statement, considering that there is still quite a small price difference between different futures maturities, it could be perceived as at least some positive market feedback regarding current expectations. In line with the spot market developments, BTC short term futures were traded by more than 2% lower from the week before. ETH short term futures had a higher drop of some 5% on a weekly basis, with the price falling below $1.2K. On the other side, both BTC and ETH longer term futures were traded higher by more than 1% , where BTC futures for the end of year 2023 were still holding above $17K, while ETH futures for the same period traded above $1.2K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies, December 12-18Last week in the news Another relatively flat week is behind on the financial markets, while investors are on hold, waiting for the next monetary moves from the FOMC meeting which will be held in a week ahead. The crypto market also traded relatively flat for the third week in a row, with Bitcoin ending the week modestly above $17K, and Ether managing to hold above $1.2K. The dust after the FTX collapse has still not settled on the market. Several US Senate members have raised questions regarding FTX`s connections with small banks in the US. In their letter, the senators referred to Moonstone, a bank based in Washington which had close ties with Alameda Research, where the company has invested $11.5 million. This comes after several similar questions have already been raised by several other senators with respect to FTX`s transactions with the Silvergate Bank. On the other side, CEO of The Block, the crypto media site, Michael McCaffrey resigned during the previous week, after it was discovered that The Block was secretly funded by Alameda Research. During the previous week, the Securities and Exchange Commission issued a guideline in which the regulator is requesting from companies to disclose their exposures toward the cryptocurrency market. This also includes disclosure of the exposures toward the bankrupt FTX exchanger, considering that it has been estimated that the company has around 1 million creditors, as news are reporting. The layoffs in the crypto companies continue, with the latest announcement from exchanger Kraken, one of the largest crypto exchanges in the world, that the company is planning to dismiss 1.100 jobs. This is currently about 30% of its labour force. As a reason for such a move, the company is noting “macroeconomic and geopolitical factors''. The ECB Director Urlich Bindseil, published a post on a ECB`s blog, stating that Bitcoin is currently “on the road to irrelevance”. He also expressed the opinion that the latest moves are only “artificially induced last gasp” which would lead the coin toward this road of its irrelevance considering that it doesn’t fit into either role of investment nor for payment. Opposite to the central bankers are investors who still believe that Bitcoin is still to hit its new highs. Last week, the venture capitalist Tim Draper expressed his quite optimistic opinion that Bitcoin might reach the level of $250K by the middle of 2023. This level means that BTC would need to surge by 1.400% within the next few months, which might be perceived as an extremely optimistic scenario. Crypto market cap The crypto market continues to slow down for a third week in a row. Strong impact on such developments have fears over FTX contingency, on one side, and forthcoming FOMC meeting on the other side. In a week ahead, there are two major events for the markets: one is release of US inflation data, after which comes December`s FOMC meeting, right before holiday season in the Western world. Current market expectations for the US inflation rate is 7.3% y/y, lower from the October data of 7.7%. The most important day to watch in a week ahead is December 14th, when FOMC is expected to further increase interest rates by an additional 50bps, as per current market expectations. In case of any deviations from market expectations, the market reaction might be significant. It is also worth mentioning that ECB will also discuss potential further rate increase in a meeting scheduled for December 15th. The week ahead would be a very interesting one when it comes to macro data. Total crypto market capitalization remained flat during the previous week, with incremental change of $3B on a plus side. What is a bit concerning is that daily trading volumes continued to decrease, dropping from the level of $60B a week before, down to $40B during the previous week. This is indication that the market is dried up and that investors are withholding any sort of trading or investments, waiting for a situation to be clearer in the coming period. In case that next week doesn’t bring any significant change, it could be expected that this situation will prolong until the end of this year, considering that the last two weeks of December are always reserved for a holiday season, hence, the markets and investors are mostly inactive. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained flat at level of $1.369B, which is a decrease of 63% on a yearly basis. Crypto currencies were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. Absolute winner of the week was Bitcoin, who added $4B to its market cap, increasing it by 1.3%. Ether performed almost without any change on a weekly basis, as well as other major coins on the market. In a relative sense, the coin with the highest weekly increase in market cap was EOS, who surged by 11%. NEO and DASH also had a good week, with an increase in cap by more than 4%. On a losing side was LINK, which lost 6.7% in value, followed by DOGE, Theta, Polkadot and Algorand, which decreased their market cap by more than 4%. Considering coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to beat records, by adding 1.5% more coins in circulation during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with incremental changes on the spot market, the crypto futures market performed in the same manner during the previous week. BTC short term futures were almost unchanged compared to a week before, holding quite modestly above $17K. Longer term maturing BTC futures were up by 1.6%, but still ending the week at $17K. ETH short term futures were down by 2.8%, with December this year ending the week at level of $1.250. Longer term futures remained flat during the course of the week, where December 2023 was traded at level of $1.220. Both BTC and ETH futures continue to trade with price inversion. During the previous week the difference in prices between maturities from December this year and December 2023 were further decreased, implying that the market continues to be on hold when it comes to price expectations for both BTC and ETH during the course of the next year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies December 5 – 11Last week in the news Some good news and some bad news related to macro fundamentals, impact the markets to trade in a mixed manner for the second week in a row. On the other side, the crypto market continues to be under pressure due to FTX contingencies. Bitcoin ended the second week above $16K, Ether is still holding above $1.2K. The state of the US economy is still in the spotlight of the financial markets in the US. There had been a lot of news during the previous week related to the high potential of the FED to slow down its further rate increases aimed to halt inflation. Markets continue to price potential 50 bps increase in December. On the other hand, the latest posted job figures show that the US job market is not losing its strength, which might further impact the fight with inflation. Posted figures show that the US nonfarm payrolls increased for 263K in November, more than 200K expected by the market. Jobless rate remained at 3.7% level. At the same time, hourly earnings increased by 0.6% on a monthly basis, or 5.1% compared with the same period last year, which was also above expectations of 4.6%. Economists are expressing their doubts that a still strong labour market might impact FED`s efforts to fight inflation. On the other hand, there are those noting that it will take time until the increased interest rates reflect in the real economy and in the job market. In a speech held during the previous week at the Brookings Institution, FED Chair Powell commented on the current state of the US economy. He noted the possibility for FED to ease further rate increases, but with the possibility that the rates might reach levels higher from previously expected, and stay at these high levels for a longer period. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) is continuing to expand its crypto related products, despite current market hesitancy due to crypto winter and collapse of FTX exchange. As it has been announced by the CME, it will team up with the cryptocurrency index provider CF Benchmarks, in order to introduce new real-time indices for AAVE, CRV and SNX. Indices will be published from 19th December, and will not be tradable for the moment. Cryptocurrency financial services firm Galaxy Digital, managed to win an auction and acquire platform GK8 from a bankrupt lender Celsius Network. As noted from Galaxy Digital, the aim of this acquisition is to expand the company's brokerage offering. Crypto market cap Total crypto market capitalization modestly recovered during the previous week, adding $18B or 2% to its total cap. Within the crypto market this might be perceived as an incremental improvement, still, considering general circumstances, it is at least movement in a positive direction. The crypto market is still under influence of FTX collapse, and its potential consequences. This is also reflected in daily trading volumes, which continue to be at their lowest levels since year 2020. For a second week in a row, daily trading volumes were moving around $60B. The market is still on a hold, waiting for dust over FTX to settle. This situation might prolong for some time in the future, until the market confidence is restored. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained flat at level of $1.372B, which is a decrease of 63% on a yearly basis. Modest increase in total crypto market capitalization during the previous week was led by two major coins: BTC and ETH. Bitcoin gained almost $10B in its market cap during the week, which is an increase of 3%, compared to the week before. Ether also had a solid week, managing to increase its cap by additional $7.5B or 5%. It should be noted that DOGE had a nice performance with an increase in value by 12%, adding $1.5B to its market cap. Among altcoins, Zcash increased its market cap by 12%, and is followed by Uniswap, with a gain of 13% on a weekly basis. Other altcoins also had solid performance, with only few who finished the week in red. Previous week, Binance Coin was on a losing track. The coin lost $3B in market value, which is a decrease of 6.5%. However, it should be noted that two weeks ago, BNB was the absolute leader on the market, with a gain of $6B, so last week`s loss continues to be in the positive territory. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues with its strong increase of circulating coins, by adding 1.3% during the previous week. Crypto futures market During the previous week, crypto futures were traded on modestly higher grounds. Still, in line with the spot market, it could be perceived as an incremental change in futures spot prices. Short term BTC futures were traded more than 3% higher compared to the week before. Still, longer term futures were traded without significant changes on a weekly basis, with December 2023 ending the week less than 2% lower, at level of $16.73K. ETH futures had higher increases from BTC futures. Short term ETH futures were traded up by 10% on average, while December 2023 was higher by 4% on a weekly basis, ending at level of $1.2K. What is still highly evident in prices of both BTC and ETH futures is their price inversion. Namely, longer term futures were traded at lower prices from short term ones. This is an ongoing reflection of current market sentiment over the potential value of the coins within the course of the following year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX