Get started

Cryptomarketcap

Crypto Market Cap: The Next TOTAL Bull CycleCrypto Market Cap ( TOTAL CRYPTOCAP) works hand in hand with the next GOLD: the one and only king Bitcoin (BTCUSD). In the Bullish Idea I posted for BTC, I was saying that BTCUSD will start flying to $250K and + , once the Supply Zone at $10K is met. Bitcoin Weekly: TOTAL (Crypto Market Cap) has the same pattern. So, no matter how many coins and tokens are out there, there is only one king: BTC! In case you're wondering, TOTAL2 and TOTAL2 are moving the same. All eyes on Bitcoin! I am bullish on the Crypto Market, and have good reasons. When the :poop: will hit the fan with the Fiat Markets, the Crypto Revolution will start. Crypto Market Cap ( TOTAL ) Technical Analysis: * Elliott Wave A-B-C Pattern * Harmonic Pattern: Bullish Cypher * Ending Diagonal * Bullish Divergence * Fibonacci Retracement: 88.6% * Demand Zone Good luck my fellow HODLer! Richard, the Wave Jedi
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by EW4X
9
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies Nov 28 – Dec 4Last week in the news Markets were traded in a mixed manner during the previous week, in expectations of US jobs figures which will be posted in the week ahead. On the other side, the crypto market was in the same mood, but due to expectations on news related to the contingency of FTX collapse. Bitcoin ended the second week above $16K, while Ether was traded flat at levels above $1.2K. The price fragility remains under pressure from the fundamental news. FED's Minutes of the meeting from the latest FOMC meeting revealed that the majority of the voting members were on a side that FED should slow down with the level of rate increases. At this moment, markets are expecting that FED will increase rates further but for 50 bps in December, which is a slowdown from previous 75 bps. The news was welcomed on the markets, as both equity and the crypto market reacted positively. The FTX collapse remains the main topic in the news and the crypto market for the second week in a row. Fragility of prices remains under huge influence of news related to the contingency of the FTX collapse. Voyager Digital, which filed for bankruptcy in July this year, entered into new problems, as the American unit of FTX was supposed to take over the troubled company. At this moment Binance confirmed, with few other crypto firms, that it is preparing to take over Voyager Digital. Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, commented that Binance introduced a fund of total $1 billion aimed to support companies in trouble in the crypto industry. CNBC is reporting that several Democratic lawmakers in the US requested from the Senate Banking Committee to ask the federal regulators to oversee crypto trading activities of the bank SoFi. The rationale for such an urge is their opinion that SoFi represents a threat to investors. Their fears are increased considering a significant meltdown in the crypto industry during this year and increased number of companies in default. On the other hand, SoFi bank reacted to these statements, noting that it is fully compliant with the regulation currently in place in both their banking and crypto units. After Bahama`s authorities seized assets of the failed FTX, news is reporting that Turkey's authorities did the same for the FTX unit in this country. As it has been reported, the failed exchanger is currently under investigation in Turkey for “antecedent crimes and laundering”. Ardana (DANA), a DeFi project based on blockchain Cardano was halted, as it has been officially stated on Twitter by the company. The company stated that the project has been halted considering issues with funding and “project timeline uncertainty”. Crypto market cap The total crypto market capitalization was relatively flat during the previous week, with quite shy recovery of 1%, adding $4B to its market cap. The modest positive impact comes from released minutes of the FOMC meeting, where it has been exposed that the majority of FOMC voting members expressed the opinion that the FED should slow down in the future period with its increases of interest rates. It takes time until the monetary measures reflect into the real economy, while current levels of interest rates are already giving results in halted inflation levels. Inflation is still high, but further strong increases in the FED's rate, might start to seriously damage the US economy, which would not serve to benefit the monetary goals of a stable economy. This was positive signal for markets, however, concerns over contingent of the FTX collapse are still point of high risk for the crypto market. In this sense, daily trading volumes continue to be low and were further decreased during the previous week, from $66B down to $59B on a daily basis. Evidently, investors are still on hold. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained flat at level of $1.390B, which is a decrease of 64% on a yearly basis. The absolute leader of the crypto market during the previous week was Binance Coin, with its significant recovery of 14%, adding $6B to its total market capitalization. Certainly, the coin was supported by the fundamentals around Binance`s potential takeover of Voyager Digital. On the other hand, BTC performed relatively flat, losing $3B or 1% in value. ETH`s price was flat without any significant change on a weekly level. In relative terms, altcoins with good weekly performance were Litecoin and LINK, which managed to increase its market cap by 20%, both. In this group of altcoins also belongs DASH, with an increase of 18%, and Solana, with a surge in price of 11% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side, one of the highest weekly losers were Algorand, with an decrease in market cap by 18% and Uniswap with a drop of 6%. As for coins in circulation, a significant increase had LINK of 3.3% compared to the previous week, Filecoin, which added 1.1% to coins in circulation, while Tether had a drop of 0.9%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was traded flat during the previous week. Investors are still on hold, which shows official data. The number of contracts significantly decreased for the second consecutive week, where asset managers account for 31% of long positions on CME, compared to 43% a week before. Asset managers are also reducing their long positions in BTC. During the previous week the prices of BTC futures remained flat compared to the week before, where futures maturing as of the end of this year are still holding at $16.2K, while December 2023 was modestly down to the level of round $17K. As for ETH futures, they continue to drop in prices, between 2% and 3% previous week, with December this year still holding above $1.1K, while December 2023 was down by additional 2%, ending the week slightly above $1.1K. Futures prices for both coins continue to be traded with a small price range for all maturities, implying that investors are still on hold when it comes to the value of coins within the course of the next year.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: November 21 – 27Last week in the news Markets were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. First part of the week was much more positive from the week-end, when markets closed lower. Analysts are stressing that it was a market readjustment based on the latest comments from FED officials on CPI expectations. The crypto market continues to be under the influence of FTX collapse and also had a mixed week. Major coins traded lower. BTC is finishing the week modestly above $16K, ETH is still holding above $1.2K. The scandal over the crypto exchanger FTX continues to be the main topic in the news. Currently contingent spread is the main concern of investors on the market. It could not be estimated exact impact, considering that many large names on the market had exposure toward FTX. Shares of the crypto bank Silvergate Capital, dropped sharply during the week, due to market speculation that the bank could be exposed to FTX. The CEO of Silvergate bank tried to assure investors that the bank has sufficient liquidity, but it was without effect. Large pension fund in Canada, Ontario Teachers, announced that it will write off $95 million worth of investment in FTX. Price of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust shares were down by 43% relative to the underlying BTC price, after the announcement of its owner, Grayscale Investment, that they would halt customer withdrawals in case that similar situation occurs as with FTX. On the other hand, Cathy Wood`s ARK Investment was not concerned much about such statements, since the fund purchased additional 315.000 shares of GBTC. In an interview with CNBC, the General Counsel of Ripple, Stuart Alderoty commented on the company's expansion outside of the US, noting that the majority of its income is now originating from outside the US. For a few years now Ripple has been in legal dispute with SEC defending the stand that XRP is not a security. In the meantime, the company expanded its operations outside the US, currently seeking a virtual asset service provider licence from Ireland authority. With this licence, Ripple is hoping to pass its activities to the rest of Europe. The CEO of Input Output Global, Charles Hoskinson, announced during the previous week that the company is planning to release a new blockchain, named Midnight, with a token called Dust. IOG is a company behind Cardano, while the Midnight blockchain is supposed to deliver zero-knowledge-proof smart contracts. During the week, president of the European Central Bank, Christine Lagarde, commented on the possibility for the ECB to continue to raise interest rates, even if such moves would push the EU economy into recession and slow down economic activity. Economists are noting that the current 1.5% level is neutral. This comment comes after the inflation in the EU zone is hitting historical heights at 10.6% y/y with its further estimated growth during winter months. Since this is far away from 2% ECB`s targeted level, there are not many other options for ECB, except to hike further interest rates in order to reduce its balance sheet. Crypto market cap After a shocking week of the FTX collapse, which led to a significant drop in prices of all digital assets, markets were trying to stabilise around current prices. However, there is still great fear of investors regarding the contingent effect of FTX on other major players on the market, which is the main reason why investors are still reluctant to enter into positions and push the market to previous levels. Total crypto market capitalization decreased during the previous week by an additional $20B or 3%, leading to total crypto market capitalization drop of little less than 25% within a period of two weeks. The drop was again led by the major coins on the market. At the same time, daily trading volumes significantly decreased, down to the level of $66B on a daily basis, from $152B traded during previous week. Evidently, the market is waiting for the dust of FTX collapse to settle down, in order to choose the trading side. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year was further decreased to the level of $1.394B, which is a drop of 64% on a yearly basis. Major coins on the market were leading the last week`s drop, while the performance of altcoins was in a more optimistic manner. BTC, ETH and BNB were participating with 64% in the total market cap drop of $20B. ETH for one more time was leading the market with a drop in cap of $7.2B, which is a decrease of almost 5%. BTC was following, with a drop in cap of $4B or 1.2% on a weekly basis. BNB was down by 3.5% or $1.6B. It was also interesting to see that Tether lost a significant amount of $1.5B or 2.2%, for the first time after the Terra collapse. In relative terms, the highest losers of the week were Solana, with a drop in market cap of 14%, followed by DOGE, who decreased its market cap by 7.2%. Among coins which managed to finish the week in green territory were Litecoin, with an increase in market cap of 6%, Monero, which surged by 5.6% and Algorand with an increase of 5.5%. Quite positive developments were with EOS, a coin which increased its cap by 7.8% and also increased its coins in circulation by additional 7% w/w. Filecoin continues to increase its circulating coins, adding 1.4% during the previous week. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market continued to trade lower during the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded modestly higher by some 2% on average, still holding modestly above $16K. Futures with maturity in December this year finished the week at level of $16.2K. Still, longer term futures lost between 7% and 10%, with closing price for December 2023 at $17.1K, lower from previous week`s close at $18.1K. Negative expectations were also dominant for ETH futures. Short term maturities for ETH were closed by some 3% lower, dropping below $1.2K. Much higher drop was with longer term futures of some 10%, with December 2023 finishing the week at $1.1K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: November 14 – 20Last week in the news Last week`s downturn on the crypto market was under strong influence of negative developments with FTX cryptocurrency exchange, which filed for bankruptcy as of the end of the week. Bitcoin finished the week above $16K, while Ether manages to hold above $1.250 support. The dust about FTX cryptocurrency exchange began at the beginning of the previous week, with news that Binance exchange is considering to take over the FTX exchange, which was struggling with liquidity for some time. After Binance officially announced that the company does not have intention to buy the FTX, the clients of FTX started withdrawing funds pushing the exchanger into significant problems. Within a few days, one of the largest exchangers on the market, with a valuation of $32 billion, filed for bankruptcy. Voluntary proceedings currently include approximately 130 affiliated companies. Market reaction was swift and negative as nobody can tell with certainty all the potential future effects of FTX`s bankruptcy. As CNBC is reporting, the FTX has more than 100.000 creditors, and liabilities above $10 billion. While FTX clients and creditors are concerned whether they will be able to withdraw their funds any time soon, the regulators are voicing a need for the crypto market regulation. The JPMorgan research team noted last week in a letter to clients, a significant increase in deleveraging of the crypto market, caused by the collapse of the FTX exchange. They are implying a high probability of the cascade of the margin calls, similar to the one already occurred with the collapse of Terra. In this sense, the Bank is noting probable BTC bottoming around $15K, with some probability for $13K to be reached. Cathie Wood continues to be optimistic about the crypto market in the long run. Her company, ARK Investment ETF, used the current market downturn to increase the number of shares of Coinbase, by purchasing additional 400.000 shares. At the same time, Coinbase stated that it has only small exposure toward the FTX in terms of operating deposit. Equity markets in the US performed in green during the previous week, after the official US inflation figures were published. The inflation reached 7,7% on a yearly basis, which was lower from the forecasted 8%. Figures are showing that FED's rate increases during the previous period are finally reflecting in the economy, and slowing the inflation. This has increased investors' confidence that the FED might start easing further measures to cope inflation, including slowdown in future rate increases. Crypto market cap For one more time the crypto market exposed its worst weakens, which is called liquidity. The fragility of the market this time was triggered by the bankruptcy of one of the largest crypto exchanger FTX. When the news hit the market, significant number of its clients were trying to withdraw funds, bringing FTX further to the down side. The spiral then continued to the point where FTX needed to halt its operations, further worsening the clients sentiment. As FTX is a large company with significant relations with other entities within the crypto ecosystem, the current panic among crypto participants is caused by lack of information if FTX`s collapse would impact the downturn of any other crypto company or exchanger. To be on a safe side – traders and investors are closing their positions. In addition, there is significant leverage on the crypto market, hence, margin calls will be the ones which will most certainly push the prices more to the downside. Total crypto market capitalization was down by 20% on a weekly basis, where more than $200B was wiped out. Major coins on the market, BTC, ETH and BNB participated with 69% in total drop. Daily trading volumes remained on a relatively same level as week before, moving around $152B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year widened to the level of $2.182B, which is a decrease of 63% on a yearly basis. There is no coin on the crypto market that finished the week in green. The highest losers in absolute terms were the major coins on the market. BTC`s total market cap was down by more than 20% on a weekly basis, decreasing its cap by almost $85B. BTC was followed by ETH, with a drop of 22% or $44B. Third place belongs to BNB, with a decrease in market cap by almost $11B or 19%. Solana was another coin with significant drop of $7B or almost 57% within a single week. XRP had a drop of more than $6B, which is a decrease of 26%. DOGE also lost significant amount of funds of almost $5B, bringing a decrease to 28%. All other altcoins lost between 10% up to 30% in value within a single week. Considering coins in circulation, Tether lost some 2.8% , while Solana and Filecoin increased their circulating coins by 0.9% both. Crypto futures market Considering significant negative news during the previous week, the crypto futures market could not perform better from the spot market. Both BTC and ETH futures were traded significantly lower from the week before, with higher drop within shorter maturities. BTC short term futures were traded some 25% lower during the week, with December this year ending the week at level of $15.6K. Longer term futures were traded down by some 12%, where December 2023 dropped below $20K and ended the week around $18.6K. ETH short term futures were also down by 25% on average, same as BTC, where the price for December this year was closed modestly above $1.2K. On the other side, longer term ETH futures had higher drop from BTC`s, bringing down prices by some 15% on average. There has been a significant drop in prices for December 2023, where these futures ended the week holding at $1.3K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Cryptos are here to stay- Don't follow the price but follow the innovation. - in 2018 Crypto market reached $750 Billions, in 2020 it reached $3 Trillions. - of course cryptos are still nothing if u compare markets with the actual netted value of derivatives. $600 Trillions. - if u followed some recent news about IRS : - The Passage of the Inflation Reduction Act signals the hiring of 87,000 IRS agents and the bill specifically calls out crypto assets. - $80 Billion of funding is allocated to the IRS budget over the next 10 years, signifying a 75% increase on a yearly basis. So are you thinking govs will hire more agents to tax a dying system. think about it. - According to Fibo the next bullrun will lead Crypto Markets around $10 Trillions. - Be ready for it but be ready also for taxes and regulations. Feel free to comments! Happy Tr4Ding !
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by thecryer
3
Even the Crypto Market Cap formed a Head and ShouldersIn my opinion the crypto bubble is going to really burst soon! I used to trade crypto but ultimately went to FX due to it being a more stable system. I was getting sick of crypto exchanges getting hacked, stealing peoples money and other numerous problems that went a long with the cryptoverse. Anyone could open a crypto exchange which in itself causes a lot of problems if they don't have any basic knowledge of economic systems. I used to trade on the New Zealand exchange (forgot the name) and for some reason I just didn't trust holding my crypto with them so i took it out and not even 2 weeks later they claimed they got hacked. A ton of people lost millions of dollars in the process so for me I personally love regulated exchanges (FX) because of this!
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by JasonLeighton
BTC: Bounces Face Formidable ResistancePrimary Chart: Daily Logarithmic Chart Showing Anchored VWAPs, 34-Day EMA, Trendline Previously, SquishTrade discussed why BTC's downtrend cannot reverse given that sellers remain in control as defined by the volume-weighted average price starting at the all-time high. That discussion is contained in the post linked below. Supplementary Chart A Some may respond that any downtrend cannot reverse if sellers remain in control, so why state the obvious? Trends end via a process. A downtrend requires a bottoming process and an uptrend requires a topping process. So for a downtrend to reverse, it remains important to see buyers starting to take control on different time frames. For example, in a downtrend, buyers may often take control temporarily on smaller degrees of trend during a bear rally—such as the bear rally in BTC from June to mid-August 2022—only to realize that sellers remain firmly in control on a larger degree of trend (such as the primary trend). When sellers remain in control on larger degrees of trend, then buyers will inevitably lose control eventually on the lesser time frames when bear rallies end. The Primary Chart shows how BTC's price remains well under the VWAP representing the primary trend (red) anchored to the all-time high, as well as the down trendline covering the same period. But other VWAPs are also looming overhead and sloping downward including the VWAPs anchored to the March 28 swing high (gold), the June 18 low (black), and the September 21 low (green). BTC has chopped within a tight trading range since mid-September 2022. This appears to be consolidation, a typical occurrence after powerful and sharp trend moves. Markets and instruments that have trended strongly in a given direction need time to digest that move. Chop occurs, trapping both sides of the market, frustrating bears and bulls alike with persistent moves in both directions that quickly fail and reverse. Over the summer since the June 2022 lows, BTC has chopped and consolidated as shown in the chart below dated from early October 2022. Notice the abundance of failed breakouts and breakdowns around that key $19,246 level. Supplementary Chart B Note that this choppy consolidation range has continued despite equity indices falling precipitously in September and October 2022 to new YTD lows. After tracking (or correlating) to some extent with major equity indices like the Nasdaq 100 this year, BTC's price has remained relatively sideways while indices have continued to fall into mid-October. Now that equity indices are rallying, BTC still remains stuck in the same range, though this could change at any time. Below is a chart of BTC's trading range as of October 21, 2022—notice how BTC has chopped very tightly for around the .786 retracement of its summer rally. This chop has lasted since mid-September 2022. Supplementary Chart C Taking a somewhat broader perspective, the chop has lasted since June 18, 2022, lows. The Primary Chart shows the major five-month support and resistance levels as blue rectangles. Price has been unable to leave this zone since the YTD lows. The downtrend line on a logarithmic chart has held as resistance since the all-time high November 10, 2021. Even the shorter-term downward trendline from May 2022 has been unbroken as resistance. On larger time frames, therefore, the picture remains quite negative for BTC. And even on lesser time frames, BTC's price has remained relatively week, unable to stay above the VWAPs from the June and September 2022 lows. One need not look only at the technical evidence from BTC's chart to find obstacles to a major trend reversal in the near future. Additional hurdles stand in the way of BTC reversing its trend in the near future (though bear rallies are not precluded), which include the following: 1. A meteoric rise in interest rates this year that is unlikely to stop pressuring risk assets any time soon. SquishTrade will reference the 10-year yield from the US as a reference for rates in general, but many interest rate charts in other countries look similar. The sharp upward trendline in rates (TNX charts below) from early August 2022 to present date explains in part the selling pressure seen broadly in equity indices around the world. This upward trendline has not been broken to the downside yet. Supplementary Chart D.1 Even if interest rates need time to consolidate and pullback to digest this massive move, the larger term picture suggests the trend may be upward for the longer term. Consider the chart below, published with apologies for the unpleasant appearance and implications. It shows a very long-term breakout in yields above a 40-year downtrend. This appears significant. Though a retest of the trendline could occur, the longer-term implications are that rates will be higher for longer, a refrain repeated by the central bank in the US and elsewhere in recent months. Supplementary Chart D.2 The next chart shows that a corrective pullback in yields could occur in the near term based on momentum divergences and relative weakening despite higher highs in the rate. The %B indicator shows that price is piercing the upper band (set at two standard deviations from the mean) less deeply, showing that higher highs in price are actually relatively weaker and lower highs from a standard-deviation viewpoint. Supplementary Chart D.3 Finally, given the strength in momentum on a monthly basis, yields are very likely to continue to remain strong in the coming months even if a corrective pullback occurs. Momentum hit a 40-year high on RSI (monthly chart below): Supplementary Chart D.4 2. Inversion of the yield curve, which has some predictive power in forecasting times of slowing economic growth and even recessionary periods. The chart below shows the spread between the 2-year and the 10-year yield, which remains below zero, indicating that the 2-year has remained persistently above the 10-year, despite its significantly shorter duration. This presents a departure from the normal relationship between these two yields, and in bond-market parlance, is called an inversion. This inversion has persisted for about 4 months since July 5, 2022, though there was also a brief inversion in April 2022. Supplementary Chart E The yield curve will tend to tell the market when the central banks may be ready to pivot. The central banks will not pivot because market participants think the pivot is nigh when markets are severely oversold. As of October 2022, the yield curve has remained inverted for quite some time. The inversion has deepened during the summer months, but now the inversion is simply persisting with the spread percentage chopping up and down and ultimately moving sideways on the chart shown above. 3. Crypto market cap just broke below a long-term trendline. While trendlines can be messy and require adjustment, a break of a longer-term trendline like this does not bode well for crypto in general. Perhaps this is just a whipsaw break, and time will tell. And perhaps BTC will be the relative winner, as some have argued, despite crypto overall continuing to decline. SquishTrade will not make such a prediction but remain a follower of what the charts are saying. When BTC's charts begin showing structural change and a primary trend reversal, and rates begin declining at the larger degrees of trend, the conversation can certainly shift to a more positive one for this asset. Supplementary Chart F ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by SquishTrade
20
CRYPTO week ahead: November 6 – 13Last week in the news The FOMC raised interest rates by additional 75 bps, implying the possibility that future increases might slow down. Such rhetoric brought back a bit of positive sentiment on financial markets. Both EU and US stocks gained during the week. The crypto market followed the path, with BTC ending the week modestly above $21K, while Ether is holding above $1.6K. As it was expected, the FED increased its interest rates by additional 75 bps last week, as markets were anticipating. In a statement, after the meeting FED Chair Powell commented FED expectations for interest rates hike to slow down in the coming period. However, market analysts are noting that if inflation remains persistent, there is some possibility for the FED to continue with higher rate increases. The US equities modestly dropped on Friday, after the US non-farm payroll figures were released. The figures show that the US economy created 261K new jobs in September, which is more from 200K the market was expecting. At the same time, the unemployment rate was up by 0.2% to 3.7% in September from 3.5% posted previously. The results are sort of mixed, showing that the FED`s measures are slowly transferring to the real economy. This adds to the probability that FED might indeed slow its rate hikes in the coming period. At this moment investors switched their attention to the consumer price index report which will be released during the next week. As CNBC is reporting, there is high optimism among crypto investors in the UK, that the new prime minister Rishi Sunak might support the crypto industry in the UK. This optimism comes from Sunak`s former comments of the crypto among which was his “grand plan” implying that the UK should become the world`s hub for the crypto and blockchain industry. Considering that all Sunak`s comments were made before he took the role of the PM, it shall be seen if this stance on crypto has been changed. The Head of monetary authority in Singapore, Ravi Menon, stated that his country still has the aim to be a hub for digital assets. However, he disapproves of trading and speculation with cryptocurrencies, as many Singapore`s small investors suffered severe losses during the recent so-called crypto winter, and collapse of Terra Luna. On the other hand, Manon`s statement for banning crypto trading was criticised by the CEO of Coinbase, Brian Armstrong, noting that “those two things are incompatible '' in his opinion. Crypto market cap Financial markets had another modest recovery during the previous week. Modest optimism was supported by the latest FED's interest rate increase by 75 bps, with FED`s rhetoric that future increases might be lower from several previous increases. However, not all investors are confident regarding the state of the US economy. There are still those who are waiting for clear confirmation that the US inflation is on a down path, which would be a certain sign that the FED will halt further rate increases. The crypto market capitalization was modestly increased during the previous week by 2%. The market managed again to reach levels above $1 trillion, where the market last time was in September this year. Daily trading volumes continue to surge, reaching $187B on a daily basis, compared to $154B a week before. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year was further modestly decreased to the level of $1.173B, which is a decrease of 54%. Majority of coins gained during the previous week. Total market capitalization increase was led by BTC and BNB. The main crypto on the market gained almost 2% during the previous week, increasing its market cap by $7.6B. BTC was led by Binance Coin, which had a strong surge in total market cap by more than $7B, or 15% on a weekly basis. Polygon also had a very good week, since the coin managed to increase market cap by $2B, which is an increase of 26%. XRP was also in a group of coins which increased market cap by $1B, as it surged a market cap by 4.5%. Other altcoins which performed well in a relative sense during the week were Litecoin, with a market cap increase of 21%, LINK with a surge of 19%, Algorand and Filecoin, with an increase in cap by 28% and 13% respectively. There are several coins which lost some of their value during the week, like DOGE, who lost almost 5% on news related to Elon Musk`s issues with Twitter management. Cardano also performed in red during the week, with a drop in market cap by 2%. As for coins in circulation, Tether continues recovery with additional 0.6%, while Filecoin continues with gains in coins, adding 2.7% to the total coins in circulation for another week in a row. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market is sort of a reflection of both spot market and investor`s current sentiment regarding future expectations on the performance of coins. During the previous week, there have been some changes in the slope of the maturity curve for both BTC and ETH futures, however, a bit to a negative side. For some time now, futures prices are showing that investors are not expecting any significant increase in the value of coins, at least till the end of the next year. In line with the spot market developments, BTC futures were traded higher by some 3% for maturities until January 2023. From March next year, investors are expecting for the price of BTC to be lower by some 2% from a week before. Maturities for December 2023 dropped to the level modestly above $20K, while previous week these prices were holding above $21K. As for ETH futures, the situation is similar. Short term futures were traded up by some 7%, with December this year ending the week at level of $1.64K. Longer term futures remained relatively flat, with a modest drop of less than 1%. December 2023 continues to hold at $1.55K for the last two weeks.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: October 31 – November 06Last week in the news A green week on financial markets was supported by increased investors confidence that the FED's monetary tightening might ease in the coming period. Still, the risks remain. The Dow Jones index closed 800 points higher on a weekly basis. The crypto market followed the optimism, with Bitcoin again reaching $20K and Ether was back to $1.6K. As of Thursday the European Central Bank raised its reference interest rates by additional 75 bps. As noted in a statement, more increases are probable in the coming period. Market reaction was relatively flat, considering that investors are expecting recession across Europe, supported by the heavy increase in gas and food prices. As per latest published data, inflation is continuing to rise, reaching more than 10% in Germany, Europe's strongest economy. At the same time, personal consumption expenditure prices in the US rose 0.3% in September, or 6.2% compared to the same period a year ago. This indicator is closely watched by the FED as one of the indicators of the inflation in the country. It was a positive signal for financial markets, which are currently pricing another rate hike by FED of 75bps, after which, the FED should slow down with further rate increases. One of the most quoted news during the previous week is that Elon Musk is finally a new owner of Twitter. It has been a bit of a chaotic first day of a “Chief Tweet” as several highly positioned officers have left the company. However, the news was positive for DOGE, as the coin surged on the news to 15 cents from 6 cents previously traded. Such a move was sort of expected taking into account the previous DOGE-Musk saga on Twitter. At the same time, Binance CEO, Changpeng Zhao, tweeted that his company participated with $500 million in the Twitter takeover deal. A digital bank Revolut gained approval from the Financial Conduct Authority in the UK to offer crypto services to its clients. Revolut is currently offering more than 30 digital currencies for trading and has a customer base of more than 20 million clients. El Salvador became the first country in the world to accept Bitcoin as a legal tender, now helping the city of Lugano in Switzerland to do the same. As per news reports El Salvador and Lugano signed a memorandum of understanding for adoption of Bitcoin locally. In this sense, El Salvador will open a “bitcoin office” in Lugano with the aim to work on further promotion of bitcoin in Switzerland and across Europe. Crypto market cap A glimpse of optimism was spread on financial markets during the previous week. As latest figures show that the inflation is slowing down, the markets have priced another FED's rate hike at 75bps, in expectation that potential further interest rate increases might be at a lower pace. For investors, this would mean the end of monetary tightening and also an end to withdrawal of funds from the markets. After almost five months of sort of side trading, investors on the crypto market finally decided that it is time to come back. At least some of them. It should be considered that risks from the global macroeconomic environment are still high, in which sense, the recovery might be slow, but it will go in a positive direction. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 12% during the previous week, adding $108B to total cap. Investors are back on the market, which is expressed through almost doubled daily trading volumes, which reached $154B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year is modestly decreased to the level of $1.194B, decreasing total drop to 55%. Almost all coins were traded within green territory during the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization increase during the week was led by major coins, BTC, ETH and BNB. These three coins participated by more than 70% in total crypto market cap increase during the week. The absolute winner was ETH, with an increase in market cap by 24%, adding $39B to its total capitalization. ETH was led by BTC, which added $32B on a weekly basis, or almost 9%. BNB managed to gain additional $6B in market cap or more than 13%. In relative terms, DOGE was without any competition, as the coin increased its cap by an incredible 123% w/w, adding almost $10B to market cap. This is only a short term move, as it has been strongly supported by Musk`s takeover of Twitter. Also in relative terms, Solana had a good week with a cap increase by $2B or 19% and was followed by ADA, with a surge in cap by 24%, adding $3B to it. Rare coins which lost some of their value were Bitcoin Gold, with a drop in cap by almost 10%, and interestingly, Maker, with an decrease in cap of 9%. As for coins in circulation, there has been modest change with Filecoin, which continues to increase its coins in circulation, this time by 1.4%. Tether also continues its quite modest recovery, adding 0.8% of circulating coins on a weekly basis. Two weeks ago XRP decreased its coins in circulation by 0.2%, but during the previous week, the coin managed to increase the number by 0.4%, increasing the circulating coins to above 50 billion. Crypto futures market Since the investor’s optimism is back on the markets, so are crypto futures traded higher during the previous week. Prices of the futures are showing that the market is slowly recovering, but the risks are still high. This conclusion comes from the evidence that the price level for all maturities is higher, but still the maturity curve remains flat. There is a very tight difference between short and long term maturities, showing that investors are still not sure regarding futures prices of both BTC and ETH. BTC short term futures were up by more than 6%, while longer term surged by more than 8%. Maturities at December 2023 ended the week at level above $21K. ETH futures had a stronger surge during the previous week. Short term maturities were up by more than 18%, with December this year ending the week above $1.5K. Longer term maturities surged by 22.5% on average. What continues to be strongly evident with ETH futures are the very tight price range between short and long term maturities. Previous week this range was around 40 points, between $1.538 and $1.580.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: October 24 – 30Last week in the news There have been some relief on the financial markets during the previous week, as investors have priced the possibility for FED to slow down with its further rate increases. US stock markets closed higher on Friday, while the crypto market is still pending to follow. Bitcoin is ending the week above $19K, while Ether continues to hold above $1.3K, without much change from a week before. Major economic journal published the news that few FED officials are concerned about too strong rate hikes, which might hurt the US economy. This news pushed investors sentiment to positive, as it has increased expectations that FED might slow down with its further rate hikes as of the first quarter of the next year. At the same time, benchmark 10Y US Treasury yields reached their highest level since 2008, reaching 4,3%. Current economic prospectus are unclear, but what economists agree on is that the higher market volatility might continue at least until Q1 2023. The company Tether officially announced on Twitter that it has made its stablecoin USDT available in Brazil, on 24.000 ATM`s. The company's aim is to include more people into the financial system and bring major changes to the payments industry. It has been estimated that 1.4 billion USDT worth of transactions were made in Brazil during August this year. In May, the company also launched a MXNT, a token pegged to the Mexican peso. The current acting chairman of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), Martin Gruenberg, expressed his concerns, during the last week, that the stablecoins could have a disturbing effect on the established banking system. In this sense, he proposes to US regulators to bring a regulation which would allow stablecoins to interact with traditional banking systems but without altering it. There might be a crypto winter when it comes to crypto asset prices, but it seems that IT developers are working like never before. This is the conclusion from Jason Shah, an official from Alchemy, a development company within the Web3 network, in an interview with Coindesk. He also noted a trend, which he sees on the market, that major companies based on IT technology are moving toward Web3 now, incorporating it into their businesses. Crypto market cap Current status-quo on financial markets is reflected on the crypto market. Inflation figures show that the inflation is topping, but there is not much news from the FED officials, to provide their perspective over the state of the US economy. After the last FOMC meeting, FED Chair Powell bravely stated that the FED will push the US economy into recession to halt the surging inflation. Now that the inflation is peaking, the markets are on hold, with only one question in mind – to be or not to be another rate hike? The Wall Street Journal published an article on Friday, stating that some FED officials are concerned about too strong rate hikes, which might hurt the US economy. Although this news pushed equity markets to the upside, still the crypto market remained flat during the week. Total crypto market capitalization ended the week almost without any change compared to the week before. The only change is related to daily trading volumes which has been further decreased to the level of $81B on a daily basis. The market is slowly but certainly drying up. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year still holds at level of $1.302B, which is a total drop of 60%. Regardless of a short move to the upside during the week, still the majority of crypto coins are finishing the week at levels from the week before. For major coins, changes were incremental. Bitcoin added $1B or 0.3% in its total market capitalization, while Ether was up by $1.7% or almost $3B plus to the market cap. At the same time, Cardano continues to lose strength, by decreasing its market cap by additional 4.7% or $0.6B on a weekly basis. The same loss has Solana, by decreasing its market cap by additional $6.5%. Major weekly gainers among altcoins were Maker, with weekly increase of 5.3%, Polygon with a surge in the market cap by 4.15% and Zcash with additional 3.8% in market cap. It was interesting to see that during the previous week even three most prominent coins on the market decreased their coins in circulation, among which were Ether with a drop of 0.4% XRP was down by 0.2% and surprisingly, Binance Coin which decreased the number of coins in circulation by 0.8%. This is a situation not so frequently seen on the crypto market among major coins. Crypto futures market The status-quo was a word dominant not only on the spot market, but also on the crypto futures market during the previous week. ETH futures were sort of “frozen” during the week, making only incremental changes. The futures curve continues to be inverted, but within a very short range, starting with $1.300 for futures maturing as of the end of this month, and ending at level of $1.274 for maturities in December 2023. BTC futures were also quite modestly changed. Futures maturing in December this year were down by some 0.3%, ending the week at level of $19.1K. At the same time, longer term futures had a higher drop, ranging around 2%, with December 2023 ending the week at level of $19.6K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: October 17 – 23Last week in the news Inflation figures were in the market spotlight during the previous week. Although the US prices are slowing down the increase, they were still modestly above market estimate during September. The US equity market finished another week with negative sentiment, while the crypto market continues to trade flat compared to the week before. Bitcoin is ending another week below $20K, while Ether broke the $1.3K support line. The most important event during the previous week was a release of US inflation figures for September. As per official data, the US inflation continues to rise, reaching 8,2% when measured on a yearly basis, while market consensus was at 8.1%. The highest contributors to the inflation currently are prices of food, which surged in September by 13% y/y, while energy prices followed. Economists agree that latest figures show that the inflation is slowing down, due to imposed measures by the FED. However, as they note, there is still potential for another rate hike by FOMC by the end of this year. In an interview, JPMorgan`s CEO, Jamie Dimon, expressed his views on the current state of the world economy. He noted his expectations for markets to continue to be volatile as long as FED is boosting interest rates, whose consequences would be seen over the rest of the world. Strong dollar might hurt other economies, while excess leverages in “unexpected places” , as with UK pension funds, might continue to “unwind”, Dimon noted. As per announcement from Tether, the company has replaced its holdings of commercial papers with the US Treasury bills. This comes in an effort to provide back to their stablecoin with the “most secure reserves”. At the same time, as noted from the company, the aim of this asset switch is to increase transparency and trust “for the whole stablecoin industry”. Online crypto exchanger Bittrex, based in Washington, was fined $24.3 million by the US Treasury department for providing services to clients from several other countries which are under US government sanctions, in which sense, they were not complying with the US sanctions rules. As per announcements from Google, the company is aligning with Coinbase in order to allow its customers to pay for their cloud services in cryptocurrencies. The transactions should be available during next year. Availability of such transactions would certainly allow Google competitive advantage on the market, considering that other cloud services providers are still reluctant to accept cryptocurrencies as payment methods for their clients. Crypto market cap Although the crypto market is moving in a flat mode during the last three weeks, still during this time the market is modestly losing its strength. Total crypto market capitalisation has additionally decreased during the previous week by 3%, where a total $25B has been erased from the market. At the same time daily trading volumes continue to decrease, reaching $86B during the previous week, compared to $95B a week before, and $105B three weeks ago. This trend is a signal that the market is drying up and that it would need some significant influx in a future period in order to increase volatility, profitability and bring investors back. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year has been modestly increased, to the level of $1.301B, which is a total drop of 60%. During the previous week the majority of coins lost some of their value. Three major coins on the market, BTC, ETH and BNB participate with 50% in a total market capitalization decrease of 3% on a weekly basis, while the rest belongs to other altcoins. Bitcoin lost some $7B in value, dropping market cap by less than 2%. Last week Ether decreased its market cap by additional $5B or less than 3%, while BNB was down by $1.6B or more than 3%. As for other altcoins, Solana had a negative week with a drop in market cap by $1B or 8.7%, followed with Cardano, who lost $2B in market value or more than 13%. On the other side, one of rare coins that managed to increase market cap was Maker, with a surge by more than 9% on a weekly basis. During the previous week Filecoin increased its coins in circulation by 0.9%, while Solana had an increase of 0.8%. Crypto futures market In line with developments on the spot market, the crypto futures market was traded lower during the previous week. BTC short term futures were traded lower by some 1% on average. Closing price for the end of December this year was holding modestly above $19K. At the same time BTC`s long term futures were down by some 3.5%, where futures maturing in December 2023 were holding modestly below $20K. It is interesting to note that the futures range for all maturities started to be traded within a very tough range, between $19.2K for futures maturing in October this year, up to $19.9K for maturities in December 2023. ETH short term futures were down by some $2% on average, with December this year ending the Friday`s trade at level modestly below $1.3K. Longer term ETH futures continue to be traded in inverse order, with decreasing of the price with increased maturities. Long term maturities were down by some 6% on average, with December 2023 ending the week at level of $1.272.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
CRYPTO week ahead: October 10 – 16Last week in the news The negative trend on the US equity markets continued after the output of jobs figures on Friday. It looks like the FOMC measures are starting to reflect in the real economy. The crypto markets continue to be side traded, with Bitcoin ending the week modestly below $20K, while Ether is still holding above $1.3K. Based on Friday`s data it seems that FOMC measures in terms of increased interest rates and squeeze of liquidity from the market are finally beginning to be reflected in the real economy. Jobs data posted on Friday show modest drop in nonfarm payrolls to 263K from 275K estimated by the market. At the same time, the unemployment rate in the US reached 3.5% in September, down from 3.7% during the previous month. This decrease is mostly coming from the decreased size of the labour force by 57K. The old topic about crypto mining costs became for one more time a spotlight theme in the news. Namely, as the so-called crypto winter continues to hit markets, there is again discussion whether crypto miners with high mining costs will be able to survive at current crypto prices. The discussion was triggered as one of the largest bitcoin mining firms, Compute North, filed for bankruptcy during September this year. The company was hardly hit by the drop in bitcoin price by more than 50%, increasing prices of electricity and, as they noted, issues with its major funds provider. In case the bitcoin price continues to decline, analysts are noting a high probability that more firms will likely go bankrupt due to the same reasons. On the other side, Grayscale, an asset management company, formed a co-investment vehicle, Grayscale Digital Infrastructure Opportunities which is partnering with its Group company Foundry, a digital asset mining firm, in order to support its mining business during the crypto winter period. According to a press release, the crypto exchange Binance acquired a licence to operate in Kazakhstan, from the Astana Financial Services Authority. This provides a legal opportunity for Binance to provide digital assets and custody services to its customers on Astana International Financial Canter platform. It is also interesting that Binance was one of the companies which helped Kazakhstan authorities to develop digital assets regulation in this country. As per press release from the hedge fund Two Sigma Securities, the fund will align with Chainlink in order to provide market data to Chainlink, which includes, swaps, options and other information related to derivatives. As it has been noted by the fund, the goal of this cooperation is to support building a healthy ecosystem around digital assets. Crypto market cap Second flat week on the crypto market despite weaker than expected macroeconomic data in the US, is showing that investors still see a potential in this market. Latest released US jobs market data shows a slowdown in the jobs creation, but at the same time, average hourly earnings rose 0.3% for the month and 5% on a yearly basis. Analysts are estimating that this could provide a space for FED for an additional 75bps rate hike at the next FOMC meeting. For the last two weeks, the crypto market is calming down. Total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat, with an increase of 1% or $9B on a weekly basis. Total daily trading volumes are cooling down, dropping to the level of $95B on a daily basis from $105B during the previous week. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained almost unchanged, holding at level of $1.276B, which is a total drop of 58%. Quite modest increase in total crypto market capitalization, of some $9B during the previous week, was led by modest surge in price of the Bitcoin. BTC moved to the upside by more than 1% or $4.5B. Ether also managed to gain $1.5B in market cap, which is less than 1%, while XRP had one more good week, in which the coin managed to increase its market cap by additional $1.9B or almost 8%. Other altcoins performed in a relatively mixed mode. On one side there are coins who managed to increase their market capitalization, like Maker, who surged by 14.8% and is followed by Polygon, with an increase of 7% in market cap on a weekly basis. Good week also had Stellar, with an increase in market cap by almost 5%. On the other side are several coins who lost some of their value during the week, like EOS and MIOTA with a drop of 7% both, and Algorand with a drop in market cap of almost 5%. As for coins in circulation, Algorand and Filecoin continue to increase their circulating coins both by 1.2% on a weekly basis, while Tether continues its modest recovery from a significant drop, by adding 0.6% during the previous week. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market was traded relatively flat during the previous week, which was in line with the developments on the spot market. BTC short term futures ended the week without significant changes compared to the end of the previous week. As for longer term maturities, they have increased by more than 2%. On a positive side is that prices for the end of the next year are still holding above $20K. Although there had not been much changes in short term ETH futures, prices for longer maturities were up by more than 1%. Still, regardless of small movements, all prices for all maturities continue to be traded with tiny spread, within a range from $1.327 up to $1.373. It shows that the market continues to be on hold when it comes to the future value of the ETH.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: October 3 – 9Last week in the news The US equity market finished another week in the red, after published PCE data for August showed that inflation is still not at its peak. This indicator is closely watched by the FED for better approximation of inflation, in which sense, some further monetary reaction from FED is most probable. Crypto market had a relatively flat week, with Bitcoin`s move back to $20K, while Ether continues to trade above $1.3K. A cryptocurrency lender company Nexo, based in Zug, Switzerland, announced a transaction with Summit National Bank, based in the US, in which Nexo will take an undisclosed stake in this bank. Through this transaction Nexo will acquire a banking licence and a possibility to expand the offer of the crypto-backed loans to the US citizens. Within the company the deal is named as “industry-changing transaction”. The winner of the bankruptcy auction for lender Voyager Digital is crypto exchanger FTX. The winning bid reached an amount of almost $1.4 billion, including Voyager’s digital assets amounting at $1.3 billion in fair value and $111 million of incremental value. However, this transaction does not include automatic repayments to the Voyager`s creditors, as they would need to go through court proceedings in order to receive their funds back. The largest holder of Bitcoin, a technology company MicroStrategy, is expanding further into the crypto business based on bitcoin. The company is seeking to employ a professional who will build a Lightning Network-based software-as-a-service, shortly called SaaS platform. The aim of this platform is to increase the speed of funds transfers on the blockchain platform. The world banking regulator, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, found in a survey that the total exposure of the 19 largest banks in the world toward crypto assets amounts to around $9 billion. The survey was sort of a back for Basel Committee for a revision of current capital regulation on banks, in which the Committee plans to impose stricter capital rules for banks exposed to un-backed currencies and stablecoins. At the same time, The Futures Industry Association, including some of the world's largest banks, is not satisfied with such new rules, as they will make a negative impact on banks, and limit their possibility to hedge risky assets, especially those banks involved in crypto clearing business. A crypto exchanger Binance announced that it has officially registered and launched its operations in New Zealand on September 10th. A range of services will be now available for Kiwis like spot trading, staking, NFT`s and more as noted in the announcement. Crypto market cap Previous week was relatively flat on the crypto market. The market had stabilised after higher volatility during the previous period. Latest macro figures in the US are showing that the inflation has still not reached its peak, in which sense, markets are set for another rate hike by the FOMC. The latest published PCE data for the US had a negative impact on the US equity market, however, the crypto market remained relatively flat. This might be perceived in a positive manner, as it shows that investors still have more confidence in the crypto industry rather than in traditional markets. On the other hand, the risks of liquidity squeeze impact on the crypto market are still holding. Total crypto market capitalization has been modestly decreased during the previous week, by $7B or 1% on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes have decreased to the level of $105B on a daily basis, from $120B traded during previous weeks. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year remained flat, holding at level of $1.285B, which is a total drop of 59%. Previous weeks' quite modest drop in total crypto market capitalization of 1% was mostly led by Ether and a few altcoins. Ether continues to lose in value after the Merge fork, decreasing its market cap by an additional 2% or $3B within a week. Ether was followed by Cardano, which had a drop in market cap by more than 6% or $1B. On the other hand, Bitcoin managed to modestly increase its cap by $3B, or 0.8%. There are also several altcoins who are gaining in the market popularity, like Maker, a coin which increased its total market value by 12% in a single week and Uniswap, with a surge of almost 12% in the market cap. As for coins in circulation, during the previous week there had not been significant changes. Filecoin continues to increase circulating coins, during the previous week by 0.2%, while Tether is for some time holding around 67.5B, continuing to be flat for several weeks by now. Crypto futures market After a few weeks of the negative market sentiment, during the previous week there had been some positive moves on the crypto futures market, mostly related to BTC futures. Short term BTC futures were traded higher by some 3% on average. Futures maturing in December this year were traded at the price modestly below $20K. Futures with longer maturity finished the week relatively flat compared to the week before, however, December 2023 managed to reach again the price above $20K. ETH futures were traded relatively flat compared to the week before, with the highest price increase on a weekly basis of 5% for futures maturing in March next year. Futures with maturities as of the end of this year ended the week slightly above $1.3K. It is interesting to note with ETH futures, that prices for all maturities are within a range of $1.320 - $1.340. This is a clear indication that the market is still unsure regarding the future value of the ETH coin.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: September 26 – October 2Last week in the news Although the markets were expecting another FED's rate hike, FEDs Chair Powell's address after the FOMC meeting was the major trigger to support market`s negative sentiment. Both US and EU markets were closed lower on Friday, including the crypto market. Bitcoin fell below support line at $20K, while Ether modestly recovered above $1.3K. As it has been expected, the FED increased its benchmark interest rates by additional 75bps. Although the markets were expecting such a move from FED, still the statement made by the FED`s Chair Powell after the meeting was the one that triggered markets downturn as of the end of the previous week. He expressed some very concerning expectations that the economic output will drop, unemployment will increase in the future period while during this time FED will continue to increase interest rates and withdraw liquidity from the economy. By FED`s expectations, the inflation will return to targeted 2% until year 2025. The 2Y Treasury bonds reached level of 4.2% on Friday, which is a 15-year high for this bond, while 10Y continued to rise to the level of 3,67%. After last month’s announcement from BlackRock of its intentions to offer crypto currencies to its institutional clients, during the last week Nasdaq issued a statement with information that the second largest US stock market is beginning operations covering a crypto custody service to its clients. Those two are the latest big names from traditional finances who are entering into the crypto business. As per analysts involved in the matter, this could be treated as only the beginning of the TradFi penetration into the crypto markets. In anticipation of a potential finalisation of the resolution of the Ripple Labs dispute with the SEC, the investors interest for Ripple`s coin XRP was significantly increased during the previous week. XRP managed to reach a level of $0.5 despite a general negative trend on the crypto market during the last week. Considering that the SEC and Ripple Labs filed for summary judgement, it increased expectations from market participants that the final resolution might be ruled by the court until the end of this year. It has been officially announced that the co-founder of the crypto exchange Kraken, Jesse Powell, will step down as a CEO of Kraken. It is expected that Kraken`s COO, Dave Ripley, will take over the CEO position. At the same time, Powell will remain within the company as a chairman of the Board and be further involved on product developments. The JPMorgan noted few concerns regarding the latest Ethereum network upgrade, popularly called Merge. Namely, as noted by the bank, introduction of new EtherPoW might bring a division in the Ethereum community and also that the blockchain became less decentralised, as majority of coins are holded by the minority of entities. The big win for Coinbase was the approval of operations from the Dutch central bank, during the previous week. Although this approval means that the exchanger can offer products and services only in the Netherlands, the introduction of the EU regulation MiCA will provide the opportunity to Coinbase to offer its products across the EU countries. Crypto market cap What FED`s Chair Powell said in a statement after the FOMC meeting is that FED is willing to crush the economy in order to halt the inflation. Although he was not using the same words, this is what investors on the market actually heard. What is more depressing is that he noticed a year 2025 when inflation might return to targeted levels. Certainly, any sort of optimisms on markets had been crushed, and the future path is pretty clear by now – the squeeze of liquidity might further decrease the value on the markets, including also the crypto market. In line with the market sentiment, total crypto market capitalization decreased by $35B or 4% during the previous week. Daily trading volumes continue to be constant, moving around $120B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.278B, which is a total drop of 59%. Previous week`s drop in the crypto market capitalization was led by major coins, BTC and ETH, which combined lost a total amount of $33B. Altcoins were traded in a mixed mode. BTC decreased its market cap by 4.5% or $17B, while Ether outperformed BTC in a relative sense by decreasing its cap by 8.5% or $15B. In a relative terms, coins which lost the most during the week are Ethereum Classic, with a drop of almost 15% in market cap, and is followed by EOS which also had an decrease in value of almost 16%. On the other hand, XRP had a very good week, where the coin managed to increase market capitalization by $5B or 27% on a weekly basis, supported by potential dispute between SEC and Ripple Labs. Dogecoin, Stellar and Miota were also coins which managed to increase market cap by more than 6%. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues to increase its circulating coins for several weeks now, adding 2.5% to total coins during the previous week. Crypto futures market Market fears over potential future recession in the US, supported by the central banker`s moves in order to fight inflation, turned the financial markets to the red zone, including futures market. BTC futures with shorter maturity were down by some 4%, with December 2022 closing at the price below $19K. Longer term maturities were down by some 2% on average. The drop in ETH future prices was higher, where all maturities were traded at prices around $1.3K. Short term maturities dropped by more than 9%. December this year was closed at $1.280. Longer term maturities were down by some 13% on average.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: September 19 – 25Last week in the news Financial markets closed lower after posted US inflation figures on Thursday. It is part of a positioning for new FED's rate hikes, as it is expected to occur at the FOMC regular meeting, as of September 20-21st. Bitcoin continues to test $20K, while Ether had an important week as implementation of the Merge fork has been finalised. Investor’s confidence has been shaken during the previous week, as the US inflation data showed a bit higher figures than the once the market was expecting. As per official data, inflation in the US increased by 0.1% to the level of 8.3% in August. At the same time the market was expecting the figure to drop by 0.1% for the same period. Core inflation was up by 0.6% on a monthly basis, leading to total yearly core inflation to 6.3%. These figures were perceived negatively by the market, supporting their expectation that the FED will further increase benchmark interest rates at their next meeting on September 20-21st . Markets were traded lower after this news, while US 2Y Treasury bond yields rose to the highest level of 3.8%, while benchmark 10Y rose to 3.45% as of the end of the week. It was a very important week for Ethereum network, as the long awaited Merge fork had been implemented. As per professionals within the industry, the fork was a huge success for Etherum and sort of a “game changer” for the crypto world, as it is supposed to cut energy consumption by 99%. The fork is supposed to support Ethereum token, Ether, as it now becomes a “productive asset”. However, on the opposite side, not all crypto miners were happy with this improvement. Industry specialists are stressing the issues with connections to the servers in order to mine PoW ETH. Professionals with higher speed of their networks were able to connect, while others did not have this privilege. During the previous week the White House released a framework on the future regulation of the crypto market in the US. The document does not have any legal implications, but it will be used as a guideline for institutions that regulate financial markets, like SEC or Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The framework covers crypto industry payments but also investors protection and promotion of financial stability. As it has been stated by the state officials, the aim of such a document is to put the US as a leader in governance of the crypto ecosystem. In its attempt to push further with the implementation of digital euro, the ECB made a pick of several companies, including Amazon and a group of 31 banks and credit institutions, which currently have the capacity for testing personal payments in digital assets. Crypto market cap Macro fundamentals continue to shape the sentiment of investors on financial markets. Latest figures on US inflation, which were modestly higher than expected, supported negative market sentiment, perceiving that the FED will most certainly increase further interest rates at their September`s meeting. This also means further tightening of monetary policy and less liquidity on the market, in which sense, the market is positioning accordingly, pushing the value to the downside. During the previous week total crypto market capitalization dropped again below $1 trillion in value, ending the week around level of $940B. This was a decrease of 7% on a weekly basis, where around $66B has been lost. Daily trading volumes continue to be at a higher level, but still, without much change from the week before, moving around $120B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.243B, which is a total drop of 57%. Majority of coins lost some of the value during the previous week, still, around 85% of the drop was led by three most significant coins on the market: BTC, ETH and BNB. Previous week`s drop was led by Ether, which lost almost $31B or 15% in value during the single week. ETH was followed by BTC with a drop of $22B in market cap or more than 5%. BNB`s market cap was down by $2B or almost 5%. In a relative sense, the coin which lost the most during the week was EOS, with a drop of 20% in value, and is followed by Zcash, which lost 10%, same as Maker. Only a few coins managed to gain during the week, one of which is XRP, with a gain of $1B in market cap or almost 6%. In this group falls also LINK who added 3% to its value. As for coins in circulation, the highest increase was Uniswap, which added 2.2% of new coins, followed by Filecoin with an additional 1.9% of coins in circulation. Crypto futures market Crypto futures were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. BTC short term futures were down by some 8% on average, on fears from further FED's rate hike. Long term futures were up by more than 2% on a weekly basis, where December 2022 were closed modestly below $20K. On the other hand, ETH futures continue to be under influence of Merge fork. As it has been expected, successful implementation of the fork moved both spot and future prices to the downside as many of the open positions were speculative in nature. However, analysts are noting that shortening of ETH futures might continue due to staking yields, because staked ether might be withdrawn after implementation of Shanghai fork, which will occur in the mid-2023. During the previous week short term ETH futures were traded lower by 16%, while longer term future prices were down by some 8% on average. The price for December this year was traded below $1.5K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: September 12 – 18Last week in the news Markets modestly rebounded as of the end of the previous week, after the ECB's raise of interest rates by 75bps. At the same time, positive developments were also on the crypto market, with Bitcoin`s return to levels above 20K, while Ether is counting days until the implementation of the Merge fork, ending the week above $1.7K. There has been a lot of central banker`s activity during the previous week. The most important news is related to ECB`s increase of benchmark interest rates, for the second time within the last 11 years. Increase on Thursday was by75 bps, however, ECB officials noted that more increases might come in the following period, as they expect for inflation “to stay above target for an extended period”. On the same day, FED Chair Powell in a public appearance stressed for one more time FED`s commitment to return inflation to targeted 2%. This implies further higher interest rates. However, in the week ahead markets are expecting to see some cooling down in the US inflation figures, which will be released on Tuesday, with expected core inflation at 6% and inflation at 8,1% y/y . Topic about the mining industry's influence on climate change continues to be one of the main discussion points in the US, but also across developed countries. The White House of Science and Technology Policy issued a report, noting that energy consumption used for mining crypto currencies threatens the US achievement of goals related to mitigation of climate change impacts. As it has been noted, significant consumption of energy is currently equal to consumption of all residential lightning in the US, and contributes to almost 0.3% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Securities and Exchange Commission officials continue to call for enforcement of laws within the crypto industry. SEC`s Chair Gary Gensler pointed this week to the unregistered exchangers operating within the US, that SEC will not “sit idle” , expecting from them to officially register tokens as securities. Latest decision from Binance for conversion of all existing stablecoins, USDC, TUSD and USDP to binance USD (BUSD) is perceived positively by analysts. They are noting that this move would certainly increase the supply of BUSD, by some estimates for $908 million. Also, in the long term it could have an additional positive effect, as more users will get familiar with this stablecoin, which might additionally boost the supply amount of this coin. Crypto market cap During the previous week, the ECB raised its interest rates by 75bps, while FED officials continued with old rhetoric regarding monetary tightening in order to bring back inflation to the targeted level of 2%. There has not been any negative market reaction to these news, in which sense, it looks like that the market has already priced future rate increases. This made a positive impact also on the crypto market. During the previous week total market capitalization reached again $1 trillion in value, increasing it by 6% on a weekly basis. Major coins supported this increase, although altcoins also had good performance. On a positive side is also that daily trading volumes had been modestly increased to the average level of $120B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.177B, which is a total drop of 54%. Total crypto market capitalization reached $1 trillion again, after a modest drop during August and beginning of September this year. Although this is positive news, the currently unstable macroeconomic environment continues to be a threat to the overall economic growth, and in this sense, it might contribute to the crypto market`s slow recovery in the future period. Last week`s increase in total crypto market capitalization was led by major coins: Bitcoin, Ether and Binance Coin. Ether continues to be supported by forthcoming Merge fork, in which sense, coin performed almost the same as BTC, increasing its market cap by $21B or 11%, while Bitcoin added $27B or 7% to its total cap. BNB continues to gain in strength, with a surge in market cap by $2.5B or more than 5%. Another coin which added an amount above $1B was Solana, with an increase in cap by 12% on a weekly basis. Altcoins with significant growth in value during the week were EOS with an increase of 21%, followed by Ethereum Classic and Bitcoin Gold, with a surge in market cap by 20% and 16% respectively. As for coins in circulation, Filecoin continues with its growth, adding 1.4% in circulating coins, while Uniswap had an decrease by 11% on a weekly basis. Crypto futures market During the previous week, futures for both BTC and ETH were supported by the positive market sentiment, reflected in the spot market. ETH continues to trade at higher grounds, with the forthcoming Merge fork strongly supporting the price for both short and long term futures. During the previous week short term ETH futures were traded around 11% higher, reflecting the spot market. Longer term futures were traded on average 7% higher, where maturities as of December this year reached levels above $1.7K. At the same time, prices for next year were traded at lower grounds, above $1.6K, which points to investors uncertainty over market conditions during the next year. BTC short term futures were up by 7% on average compared to the week before, however, there had been a drop in price of longer maturities, which ranged about 2%. On a positive side is that December this year was traded above $21K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
CRYPTO week ahead: September 5 – 11Last week in the news The US equity market continued modest decline during the previous week, following solid US job market data which are adding to the probability that the FED will continue to hike interest rates. Crypto market continues to move in a relatively low range due to the same reason. Bitcoin is ending another week around the $20K support line; Ether continues to be supported by the forthcoming fork. The US jobs market added additional 315K jobs in August, as official data show. At the same time, average hourly earnings were up by 5.2% y/y, while the unemployment rate reached 3.7%. There is, however, one tricky part in the August job report, which shows that full time jobs fell by 242K, while part time jobs increased by 434K. This might be due to a seasonal effect, while it also might point that there are general changes on the US jobs market. Investors perceive these data as a signal that the FED would most probably continue to increase interest rates further, since increased wages and jobs in the US would push inflation to the higher ground. In an interview with CNBC, a University professor Joseph Stiglitz expressed his concerns that aggressive rate hikes by the FED might have a negative effect on the economy, and might even further support inflation increase in the US. He also commented on recent data on the US jobs market, noting that real wages are not going up, but when adjusted for inflation, they actually are going down. The upgrade of the Cardano network, called Vasil, is officially scheduled to take place on September 22nd , as announced by the Input Output development lab. The main purpose of this fork is to reduce transaction costs. This news supported the price of ADA on Fridays and Saturday`s trading, moving it up by 1% higher. During the week there has been some positive news for Algorand network, as FIFA announced that it will launch a NFT collection for its 2022 Qatar World cup. These NFT`s will be launched to remember the best moments of this tournament like best goals, celebrations, etc., on Algorand network. The International Monetary Fund commented on ongoing plans of central banks in the world for introduction of digital currencies with a call for the IMF to develop a central system which will be used for international transfers, where costs of these transfers will be significantly decreased. As per IMF research, there are currently a total of 97 countries which are in different phases of introduction of their own CBDC`s. Crypto market cap After last week's FED Chair Powell speech at a conference at Jackson Hole, markets continued to trade in a relatively calm mode, in anticipation of further FED`s move in bringing the inflation to targeted 2%. Latest posted macro figures are showing that the jobs market continues to grow, however, economists are pointing to a possibly tricky part of the figures. Namely, full time jobs are dropping in the US, while August figures were driven by an increase in part-time jobs. During the previous week , the crypto market was traded relatively flat compared to the week before. Crypto market capitalization was increased by $11B or 1%, mostly driven by Ether and altcoins. Daily trading volumes were also flat, moving around $109B on a daily basis. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year stands at the level of $1.232B, which is a total drop of 56%. Last week`s increase in total crypto market capitalization of 1% was led by Ether and altcoins, while Bitcoin did not perform within the green zone. Ether continues to be supported by the forthcoming Merge fork, which pushed coin`s market cap to the upside by additional $9B or 5% on a weekly basis. There are several altcoins which performed well during the week, supported by fundamentals around them. News regarding the forthcoming Vasil fork in September, supported an increase in Cardano`s market cap by more than $1B or 7.7% w/w. Another altcoin with good performance was Polygon, which increased its total market value by 13%. There are several coins which finished the week in red territory. Most important here is Bitcoin, who finished the week by $4B less in market value, which is a decrease by 1% w/w. As for total circulating coins, Uniswap had an weekly increase by 13% of coins in circulation, while Polygon`s increase was by 2.4%. Crypto futures market During the previous week Ether outperformed Bitcoin not only on a spot market, but also on futures market. Namely, as per reports from the futures market, trading with Ether futures has significantly increased lately, as investors are creating trading strategies around forthcoming Merge fork. Current participation of Ether futures in the total futures trading, currently stands at 57%. ETH short term futures were traded higher during the week by some 1.1% on average, from a week before. At the same time, BTC futures were traded down by more than 3%. As for longer periods, the situation is relatively the same for both coins, as they were traded down by around 10%. BTC futures ending in December this year have dropped below $20K for the first time since July this year. ETH futures for the same period continue to hold above $1.5K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAL CRYPTO MARKETCAPUnless we see TOTAL below 931.33B and HOLDING I cannot be bearish We may be seeing a classic case of previous resistance becoming support... We will see how it plays out Sentiment at least from what I am seeing is very bearish. So we could have people either waiting to go long lower (who may chase if we rebound) or we have possibly shorts chasing at the lows for a breakout I am betting 931B holds up for longs and we can get a reversal targeting 986B or clip 1T before I expect selling pressure could be very heavy there
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by TheFibonacciKing
CRYPTO week ahead: August 29 – September 4Last week in the news For one more time FED is spoiling the game. After announcements from FED Chair Powell that interest rate hikes are not over, markets reacted in a negative mood. Both EU and US markets were closed in red on Friday, while the crypto market continued with downtrend during the weekend. Bitcoin is ending the week around $20K support line, while Ether fell below $1.5K. FED Chair Powell delivered a speech at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Friday, revealing information regarding FED`s view on current macro developments. Major point of his speech was further FED`s commitment to fight inflation, in which sense, more rate hikes are quite probable. Actually his words were “no place to stop or pause '', regardless of the fact that current benchmark rates are around the neutral zone. Although the job market is still strong and inflation is peaking, effects of increased interest rates are already seen on the housing market, and economic output of the country. Economists are starting to express worries that another dip in equities might come in the coming period as an effect of FED's policy. Venture capitalists are not giving up on the tech world. In an interview with CNBC, Edith Yeung, a general partner at Race Capital, expressed her view that it is good that crypto market lost more than half of its value during this year, because it will drag away people who want short-term profit from it, and actually don't have interest for its long-term development. On the other hand, she is pointing that crypto is actually related to the development of Web3, where the future value stands. Coinbase crypto exchanger announced that the company will add non ether futures contracts, which would be available for trading on their derivatives platform. Two months ago Conbase introduced nano bitcoin futures. As it has been noted, nano futures represent 1/100 of a coin and allows for their clients less initial capital for trading these derivatives. As Coindesk is reporting, Binance crypto exchanger and town of Busan in South Korea signed a Memorandum of understanding, which is the basis for business relationship in which Binance will help this city to develop its own blockchain ecosystem. This includes technological, infrastructural and educational support. Japan will review their current tax law during 2023, under which a heavy tax burden of 55% on gains from tokens might exclude start up companies in this country. This came as a result of efforts from crypto lobby groups, who are voicing support for the crypto industry and especially increasing the number of new companies from the tech industry in Japan. Crypto market cap In anticipation of a FED Chair Powell speech at the yearly conference at Jackson Hole in Wyoming on Friday, markets were traded sort of sideways during the week. Friday was the day when FED officials shared important news that monetary tightening is still not over and that further rate increases are on the way. Certainly this is not something that was welcomed by markets, so reaction was imminent and negative. Considering that the crypto market became a part of the mainstream, it also reacted in a negative manner. Total market capitalization has decreased by $57B or 6% on a weekly basis. Unfortunately, this does not mean that market correction might not continue in a week ahead, considering that correction as of the weekend is related mostly to BTC and ETH as leading coins, who lost in total $44B. At the same time, daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to average $109B, compared to the $110B from the week before. Total funds outflow from the beginning of this year has further decreased to the level of $1.243B, which is a total drop of 57%. Coins that led to a total market capitalization decrease were Bitcoin with a drop of $24B or 6% on a weekly basis and Ether with a decrease of $19B or almost 10%. All other altcoins lost in value, however, this drop was in a range from 3% up to 10%, depending on a coin, which might be seen as a positive move regardless of generally negative market sentiment. Among coins which lost value above $1B were Solana, with a drop in market cap of almost $2B or 15% and Binance Coin, with a drop in the cap of $1.5B or 3%. It is interesting that during the week many altcoins increased the volume of coins in circulation, which helped them to sustain their market cap. Polygon increased coins in circulation by 5.5%, Filecoin continues to gain volumes with last week`s increase by 2.3%, while surprise of the week was certainly LINK which added 4.5% more coins within a single week. Crypto futures market Crypto futures continue to trade lower in line with the spot market. BTC futures with shorter maturity were traded down by more than 3%, while ETH futures for the same period were traded lower by more than 8% compared to the end of the previous week. BTC futures maturing in December this year were down by 10% w/w, where price was holding modestly above $20K. ETH futures for the same period were down by 7%, however, its price dropped below $1.6K. A drop in spot prices which occurred during the weekend has not been priced in futures of coins, considering that the official market closes on Friday.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX