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MARKETS week ahead: December 11 – 17Last week in the news The strong resilience of the US economy continues to support market optimism, after the latest posted US jobs data for November. The USD gained during the week as well as both US and EU equities. While Gold is trying to get back into correlation with USD, US Treasury yields continued with a decline. The crypto market continues to be supported by both the resilience of the US economy and the BTC ETF frenzy, with Bitcoin reaching new highs for this year, below $45K. The US non-farm payrolls rose by 199K in November, modestly better from market forecast. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell down to 3.7%, from 3.9% posted for October. The job market continues to be resilient to macroeconomic developments. November figures came as a surprise to analysts, but eventually some of them call it a “relief” as it shows that despite strong rate increases during the past year, the US economy managed to sustain jobs and businesses. The European Union is aiming to regulate AI technology and products like ChatGPT. There has been a lot of discussion during the previous months, related to data privacy on platforms like ChatGPT or biometric models. At the same time, Italy, France and Germany are opposing tight regulating rules, especially for foundation models, stressing the concern that it might impact their competitiveness with the Chinese and the US tech industry. The Binance exchanger has withdrawn their license for the investment license in Abu Dhabi. The company has noted that such a move is not related to recent legal settlements with US regulators, but they find it “unnecessary for the company’s global needs”. A global regulator of the financial industry, the Basel Committee, is looking at risks that stablecoins pose for financial security, aiming to bring up regulations which will decrease identified risks. This regulation should address bank`s exposures to the crypto industry and mitigate potential risks of defaults like recently Silvergate Bank and Silicon Valley Bank. El Salvador, the first state that made Bitcoin a legal tender, is going further with its state experiment with crypto currencies. The recently started project called “Freedom VISA” aims to attract 1.000 people on a yearly basis, which will gain El Salvador long-term residency permit, based on a minimum $1 million investment worth of bitcoin or USDT stablecoin. The country is estimated to receive at least $1 billion of cash inflow every year through this program. Crypto market cap The positive mood on financial markets continued through December, promising a very happy forthcoming New Year holidays. The latest published jobs figures for November this year supported further market optimism over the resilience of the US economy. Both EU and US stock markets reacted in a positive manner, boosting also further the crypto market, which is in addition, still moving within a sentiment over its further adoption by the mainstream. Analysts and investors are currently moving away from the US Fed rhetoric and pricing their view on the course of the economy in the future period. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by significant $179B, with an increase of 12.6% on a weekly basis. Daily trading volumes have also significantly increased to the level of $121B on a daily basis, which is a further boost from $ 67B traded the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 112%, where it has added a total $840B to the market cap. Total crypto market significantly gained during the previous week, with the majority of coins finishing the week in green. In nominal terms, Bitcoin was once again star of the week, adding 13.8% to its market cap, or almost $105B. The second place belongs to Ether, with a surge in value of 12.6%, adding $ 32B to its market cap on a weekly basis. As a significant gainer should be mentioned Cardano (ADA) with a surge in value of $8.2B or 60.2%. This was a reflection of Cardano`s Robinhood listing in the EU. Solana was also in the spotlight of the market with a gain of $6.3B in market cap or more than 24%, which was supported by the successful network upgrade. DOGE gained $2.5B, increasing its cap by 21%, BNB also gained $ 2B which surged its value by 6%. Polkadot was also a $ 2B gainer of the week, adding more than 24% to its value. Majority of other altcoins gained significantly during the week, where especially should be mentioned Algorand, with an incredible surge in cap by 52.5%. There is still no official news what exactly was standing behind such a move. Activity in circulating coins remains relatively high during the last couple of weeks. The highest changes during the week were with Tether, which added 0.9% of new tokens, Stellar increased the number of circulating coins by 0.4%, while Filecoin traditionally continued with a surge in coins on the market, adding 0.6% during the previous week. The only negative change was with Polkadot, which decreased its coins by 3.7% on a weekly basis. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market made its significant move during the previous week. This market is also providing some important inputs over the sentiment of investors on the crypto market. BTC both short and long term futures were higher by more than 14% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year reached the last price of $45.030. At the same time those maturing in December 2024 reached the price of $49.040, which is the first time within the last year that those futures finished the week around the level close to $50K resistance. Still, it should be noted that prices of futures maturing in March 2025 reached $47.760, which is a bit lower from December 2024. Similar situation was with ETH futures. Short term ones were traded higher by around 11% on average. December 2023 ended the week at a price of $2.397, while December 2024 was last traded at $2.490. It should be also noted that March 2025 ended the week at $2.525 indicating current investors positive sentiment regarding future ETH price.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Alcoins- Is there still room for growth?Lately, many altcoins have risen above important resistance levels and gained a lot. So, a key question pops up: Can they still grow more? I believe so, and the chart shows why. Looking at the chart, after hitting a low in 2022, Total2 CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2 stayed in a range between 432 and 674. After the second resistance touch, it found new support at 500. December started with a breakthrough above resistance, and now we are at 750 B. With people feeling optimistic about the crypto market again, the most likely scenario is more growth. As seen in the chart, the next big challenge is around 1 T, which is about 40% higher from where we are now. To sum it up, the smart move seems to be buying altcoins when their prices drop (during corrections), especially near support levels. This way, you're in a good position for potential gains, going with the current market trends.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by Mihai_Iacob
16
MARKETS week ahead: December 4 – 10Last week in the news December started in a positive tone on financial markets. Gold hit new yearly highs above $2K, in expectation of Fed's rate cut during the course of 2024, while US equities reached this year`s highs for one more time, on the same assumption. The crypto market is still under expectations of the approval of the first spot BTC ETF, where the price of BTC surged to the levels above the $38K. Previous week started with sad news that one of the greatest investors and vice chairman of Berkshire Hathaway, Charlie Munger died just one month after his 100th birthday. His investment philosophy along with his partner, Warren Buffet, left the mark on generations of new investors on financial markets. During his long career, both Charlie and Warren managed to build the Berkshire empire, today worth $800 billion. Released second estimate for the US GDP annualized growth rate of 5.2% for the third quarter of this year was a huge surprise for financial markets. This is perceived as the fastest growth of the US GDP since the year 2021. This has additionally heated investors’ confidence that the Fed might sooner than expected cut interest rates. On the other hand, Fed Chair Jerome Powell held a speech at Spelman College in Atlanta on Friday, where he for one more time noted that talks about rate cuts are premature and that the Fed is currently ready to tighten the policy further in case that it is necessary in order to return the inflation rate down to targeted 2%. For one more time within the latest cycle, the markets and the Fed are on the opposite side when it comes to expected monetary moves. Expectations and preparations for the approval of the first spot BTC ETF are still in the spotlight of the crypto industry. Coindesk is reporting that a crypto asset manager Grayscale just hired John Hoffman, who formerly held a position as a Head of Americas investment department in Invesco company. His new role at Grayscale will include a leading position in the distribution and partnership team, in expectation that Grayscale`s filing for its spot BTC ETF will be approved by the SEC. The asset manager Invesco is one of the biggest issuers of ETFs in the US. ARK Invest, an asset manager led by Cathie Wood continues to offload shares of Coinbase (COIN). As per reports, ARK Invest just made its third sale of COIN shares, with market value of around $4.7 million. Previously, ARK Invest sold another $15 million worth of shares during November this year. At the same time, COIN shares are currently traded at the highest level since April last year. Crypto market cap December started in a positive mood on the crypto market, but only at first sight. Namely, the frenzy over the potential first spot BTC ETF is still strong on the market, pushing this week BTC`s price to the levels above the $38K resistance line. Still when it comes to developments with other altcoins and especially futures market, some modest market exhaustion could be spotted. Market expectations on potential Fed's rate cut in May next year, is an additional aspect that should be taken into account. Namely, the market is currently pricing a potential cut, pushing the value of the US equities to the highest level for this year. On the other hand, Fed Chair Powell stressed for one more time that Fed is not thinking about rate cuts and that potential further increase is still on the table for FOMC members. Considering that markets pushed the prices of equities higher and dropped Treasury yields lower after his statements, shows that the market and the Fed are once again on a different side when the state of the economy and further moves in the monetary segment are in question. Who is right, the time will show. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by additional $23B or 1.6% during the previous week. The highest funds inflow into this market is coming from Bitcoin. Daily trading volumes decreased during the week, moving around $ 67B on a daily basis, from $ 81B traded a week before. This is the first sign of market exhaustion. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 89%, where it has added a total $670B to the market cap. For one more week, Bitcoin was in the spotlight of the market, considering the on-going frenzy about the first BTC ETF. BTC gained $ 20B in market value which is an increase of 2.7% within one week. ETH gained modest $2.4B or less than 1% on a weekly basis. Other coins were traded in a mixed mode. One of the significant gainers on a weekly level was Solana, with an increase in the market cap of $1.44B or 5.8%. Miota should also be mentioned in relative terms, considering that this coin increased its market value by an incredible 77% within one week. This was a market reaction to IOTA`s $100 million Ecosystem DLT foundation in Abu Dhabi. Several other coins with solid weekly performance were LINK with an increase in market cap of 6.45% w/w, while DOGE added 7.2% to its cap. Majority of other coins had an increase between 2% up to 5%. There were almost equal numbers of coins which finished the week in red, like Filecoin, which decreased its market cap by 2.25%, Tron was down by more than 3%, BNB decreased its value by additional 2.7%. There has been increased activity when it comes to circulating coins, where the highest drop on a weekly basis had Maker, with a drop of 6.1% of coins in circulation. Tron and Polkadot decreased their available coins by 0.1% both. On the other side were Miota, with an increase of 0.6% of coins, Solana had an increase of 0.2%, while Filecoin increased the number of coins on the market by 0.5%. There should be mentioned Tether, which added 0.9% coins during the previous week. Crypto futures market During the previous week the optimism from the spot market was not clearly reflected in the crypto derivatives market. This refers to ETH futures, which actually finished the week lower from the end of the previous week, although ETH gained almost 1% on the spot market for the week. Short term futures were traded 0.42% lower from the week before, where December this year finished the week at a price of $2.119. Longer term futures were down by 1.6% on average, where futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $2.178 and March 2025 at $2.208. It represents a sort of exhaustion of investors for ETH at current levels, which are still not quite sure about the ETH`s potential for the future period. At the same time, market exhaustion was reflected in the long term BTC futures. Namely, although the short term ones were traded higher by more than 2%, with December this year ending the week at price of $39.290, longer term futures were traded almost flat compared to the week before. Futures maturing in December 2024 are still holding modestly above $ 41K level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
biggest CRASH in the world history The dollar is dying   You probably hear it all day long. The government is printing more money… Congress is raising the debt ceiling… The dollar is no longer backed by gold… or anything.   These are some of the reasons Robert Kiyosaki says the dollar is dying.   Like Robert Kiyosaki says…   “Wake up you guys. If you're saving US dollars, you're like the skipper on the titanic. You know they're going to have to print more and more and more and more all the time… This makes savers the biggest losers on planet earth.”   But here is what is fascinating… I know you will agree.   As the dollar gets weaker and weaker, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are getting stronger and stronger.    I’m going to say that again because it is so important. As the dollar gets weaker and weaker, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are getting stronger and stronger.    The giant hedge funds and investing firms are slowing their purchase of dollars and U.S. bonds...   They are now using their profits to buy cryptocurrencies.   The Wallstreet Journal reports that mainstream hedge funds are pouring BILLIONS of dollars into crypto. They go on to say that world famous traders including Alan Howard and Paul Tudor Jones are said to be increasing their trading in cryptocurrencies.   I can tell you firsthand that Robert Kiyosaki is.   You know what that tells you, of course. We all see it. If all the major players are getting in on cryptocurrencies, you’d better too.
Long
by mehdi_kb
3
Bitcoin Moving To The $40k Range? Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ Bitcoin has been dropping for the last 3 days and today the market is looking like it might expand the decline even more. The main reason for this decline is investors and trader sentiment, notice how everyone is worrying currently waiting for any hints from the Federal reserve regarding interest rate cuts. Which would explain why we have been seeing a strong bullish movement on Gold breaking the $2000 levels. For a while now we have been seeing Bitcoin eyeing the $40k level, What would make it soar and break that level and possibly way higher is the Spot ETF Approval . Cryptocurrency traders and investors are keeping a close eye on the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as it considers establishing a spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF). The market is vibrating with excitement as Bitcoin continues to rise below $40,000 per coin. The conclusion of the ETF's evaluation, as well as the imminent Halving event in Q2 2024, have fueled speculation that the value of BTC might potentially quadruple. YES YOU HEARD ME RIGHT!! QUADRUPLE! The favorable atmosphere around the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is adding to the bullish outlook for BTC. An ETF would provide a regulated investment vehicle for Bitcoin exposure, possibly opening up the market to a larger base of investors who have been waiting for more traditional ways to obtain exposure to the cryptocurrency. The sentiment surrounding the possible approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF is adding to the positive outlook for BTC's price. An ETF would provide a regulated investment vehicle for exposure to Bitcoin, potentially opening the market to a broader base of investors who have been waiting for more traditional avenues to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency. Also notice how we have witnessed a golden cross on the BTC Chart. You need to keep your eyes on these levels : 1) Support at 32944.72 2) Support at 25146.53 3) Resistance at 40037.76 4) Resistance at 42609.51 This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by GabiDahduh
MARKETS week ahead: November 27 – December 3Last week in the news Due to Thanksgiving holiday in the US, the markets were relatively calm but in a positive mood during the previous week. Bets on Fed`s pausing were supporting the price of Gold and, at the same time, weakening of the US Dollar. Regardless of the negative news for Binance, the crypto market was traded mostly in green where Bitcoin managed for one more time to test the $38K resistance line. One of the most striking news during the previous week was that Changpeng Zhao stepped down from his position as a CEO of the Binance exchange. The decision was made after he officially pleaded guilty to failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program in his company. At the same time, agreement has been made with the US Department of Justice for Binance to pay $4.3 billion in penalties. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen comments shortly on the case noting that this is the largest settlement in the history of her department. As part of the settlement, Binance will completely exit from the US. Also, during the period of next five years the US Treasury Department will have complete and full access to both Binance`s records and systems. CZ is still waiting for the final sentence, one of which might be 18 months in prison, as news is reporting. Binance`s token BNB strongly reacted to negative news, with a strong sell side, dropping the price of BNB by 20%, however, the crypto market did not make any significant move on the news. As analysts are commenting, this case, along with recent court decision regarding a failed FTX exchanger, is actually positive for the crypto market and might even lead to the approval of the first crypto ETF. As JPMorgan analysts are noting, the court decision will decrease a systemic risk originating from a potential collapse of the Binance exchanger and shift the whole crypto industry toward the better regulated one. FOMC November meeting minutes were released during the previous week, revealing that for the moment, Fed officials do not have any appetite for rate cuts anytime soon. Their concerns are still related to a possibility for inflation to move to higher grounds in the coming period, hence, they are of the opinion that rates should be kept at higher levels, until they are confident that inflation is under control. Market expectations are that the Fed is done with hiking rates, while potential for its cut is set for May next year. World`s most popular retail discount day, better known as the Black Friday, came with a dose of skepticism among retailers this year. The majority of large retailers in the US came with a bit pessimistic expected sales figures for the fourth quarter of this year. Few of them cited challenges like uncertain consumer spending behavior considering persistent inflation or simply dry-up in the consumer spending. Economists and analysts are closely watching forecasts of the largest retailers in the US, considering that it might provide a clue of an actual state of the US economy, and guidance on expectations on the final economic output for this year. Crypto market cap The news regarding Binance`s settlement with US officials, which will cost Binance $4.3B in penalties, was perceived positively by the crypto market. Although this does not seem quite logical at first sight, still, a broader perspective needs to be taken into account in order to understand why such action actually has a positive impact on the crypto industry. Since last year there have been a lot of negative developments related to some big names within the crypto field, including a huge scandal with the FTX exchange. Cases like this represent an actual threat to further development and wider acceptance of the crypto by the mainstream, as investors were strongly losing confidence, and in some cases, even money due to inappropriate behavior of unregulated crypto market participants. During previous years, Binance became quite a large exchanger, which collapse might impose a systemic risk, with high impact on other market participants and investors with business connections with this exchanger. A court decision means that such a scenario will not happen, but also implies that some level of order and compliance with the US laws will be in force with the crypto industry increasing safety of this business for investors. As per some analysts, this will also imply higher probability that the SEC will approve the first BTC ETF. Having all that in mind, total crypto market capitalization increased by 3.2%, during the previous week, adding $ 43B to its total cap. Daily trading volumes modestly dropped to $ 81B on a daily basis from $92B traded two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 86%, where it has added total $647B to the market cap. Total weekly gain in cap of $ 43B was mainly driven by two major coins, Bitcoin and Ether. Bitcoin added 3% during the week, increasing its market cap by almost $22B. Ether gained higher in relative terms, of 5.8%, adding almost $ 14B to its cap. Tether was another coins with a gain above $ 1B, which represents weekly increase of 1.2% for this coin. Among coins with relatively good weekly performance in a relative terms were Uniswap, with an increase in value of 21.4%, Maker was up by 6.7%, LINK surged by more than 8%, while Theta increased its market cap by 12%. There were only few coins which finished the week in a negative territory, like Doge which was down by 2.3%, Polygon lost 5.6%, EOS decreased its cap by 2.5%. Of course, due to negative news Binance Coin finished the week down by 4.3%, losing total $1.6B in value. Several coins increased the total number of their circulating coins, where Polkadot added 4.6% of new coins on the market, Filecoin 0.4% and Polygon 0.2%. Several other coins added around 0.1% more coins on a weekly basis. Crypto futures market In line with the spot market, the crypto futures market also reacted positively on news regarding Binance exchanger. Short term BTC futures ended the week by more than 3% higher from the week before, with December this year closing week at price $38.290. Longer term BTC futures were up by around 5%. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at price $40.940, while those maturing in March 2025 reached the price of $41.690. This is the sign that investors are perceiving positively future price developments of BTC expecting its increase to the levels above $ 40K. Similar developments were also with ETH futures, where short term futures closed higher by more than 7%, while longer ones were up by more than 6% on a weekly basis. ETH futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $2.128, while those maturing a year later closed the week at the level of $2.213. This is the first time after many months that all maturities of ETH are finishing the week above the $2K psychological level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
SUPREME TEST FOR CRYPTO MARKET!I am posting this #Chart for those who are too #BULLISH in the #Crypto market now! 1. Below I attach a Weekly chart on TOTAL. I'm not going to explain what #TOTAL means, I recommend a research. 2.As you can see, this macro trend was broken and now the price has reached the retesting area of the trend line, which has now become a resistance + monthly resistance and the 0.5 fib level. 3.So here it becomes the ultimate test for the crypto market. It is necessary for both resistances to be broken and confirmed so that breaking the trend line is actually a fakeout on a monthly basis. 4.A rejection from this point would mean less liquidity in the market and obvious corrections to measure. I don't want to scare anyone, I'm not bearish, I'm simply following the evolution and price action.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by sfc95
MARKETS week ahead: November 20 – 26Last week in the news Inflation data was driving the markets during the previous week. US equities finished the week slightly higher from the week before, while Treasury yields continue to slow down. While the US Dollar weakened slightly, the price of Gold reverted once again toward the $2K as markets are betting on further Fed`s pause on monetary tightening. The crypto market is still driven by the ETF hype, with BTC reaching $38K resistance during the week. The wholesale prices in the US recorded the biggest drop on a monthly basis since April 2020. As per published data the producer price index in the US was down by 0.5% in October, beating market expectation of an increase of 0.1%. Inflation rate in the US in October fell to the level of 3.2% on a yearly basis, modestly below market estimate of 3.3%. Core inflation remained at a bit higher levels, reaching 4.0% in October, while expected was 4.1%. These figures are showing to investors that inflation is certainly on the road of further easing and that the Fed will not further increase interest rates. The market's attention is now switched toward the question when the Fed will start decreasing its rates, the so-called “pivoting”, a slang widely used by market participants. Equity markets reacted positively on a potential for Fed`s pivoting during the course of the next year, bringing main US indices to the higher grounds. There has been discussions in the news during the previous week, related to soaring US credit card debt. As per official data US citizens increased use of the debt on their credit cards to the level of $1.08 trillion in the Q3 this year. Economists are for now sure that it will not lead to the next financial crisis and that the level of debt does not represent the systemic risk for the US economy. On the other hand, there are some analysts as well as market participants who perceive it as a risk for a recession in the coming year, along with a looming housing and car market. On the other side are investors such as Ray Dalio, who in an interview with CNBC pointed to a rising US government debt which might pose a systemic risk for the US economy. The race within the tech industry influenced Germany to make some significant changes in its capital markets framework. The reforms are expected to be enforced as of the beginning of the next year, and include changes in the listings and taxation of companies for stock-based compensations at start-ups. The main aim of these reforms is to support the tech start up industry in Germany, which will now become more competitive to Silicon Valley in the US. Another goal which should be addressed with law reforms is a “brain drain”, where for several years now, the best people from Germany were switching their country for the US largest tech giants. The largest Swiss bank, UBS Group AG will allow its clients to trade exchange traded funds which are linked to crypto currencies on the Hong Kong platform. This option will be allowed to clients with minimum $2 million in funds. Hong Kong has officially announced its intention to become a “global crypto hub”, supporting a regulated trading of crypto products on its exchanges. Hong Kong's Securities and Futures Commission provided authorisations for three crypto ETF`s in this country, which are backed by both BTC and ETH. Crypto market cap The hype about the first crypto ETF in the US is still quite strong on markets, where any news on this topic is moving the crypto market to the upside. Same was during the previous week, when once again news related to BlackRock`s ETH ETF pushed the price of BTC up to the level of $38K resistance line. Still, as of the week end, the hype eased, after officially published data on the US inflation and potential for Fed`s so-called “pivotal” point during the next year. This was one of the main reasons why the focus of the market was switched to the US equities, leading to a modest decline in the total crypto market capitalization. Regardless of the hype from the beginning of the week, the crypto market is ending the week 2.4% lower from the week before, losing a total $33B. Daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of $92B on a daily basis, from over $100B two weeks ago. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 80%, where it has added total $604B to the market cap. Although the previous week started in a positive manner for the majority of crypto coins, still, the weekend brought a short reversal point for the crypto market. Ether was leading the market toward the downside will total loss of $13.1B or 5.2% on a weekly basis. Bitcoin took the second place, with a total loss of almost $ 9B or 1.2%. Other major coins followed the path, with Ripple decreasing its market cap by $3.4B or 9.4%, LINK was down by $1.5B or 16.2%, and BNB lost $1.4B or 3.6% in value. Other altcoins with significant loss in relative terms during the week were NEO, which was down by 15.3%, Theta lost 12.5% in value, DASH was down by more than 8%, same as Polkadot. There were only a few coins which managed to increase their market cap, such as Maker, which was up by 4.7% on a weekly basis, Polygon was up by 0.4%, while Tether increased its value by 1.2%, by increasing its coins in circulation by this percentage. In line with higher volatility on the crypto market, there has been further increased developments with circulating coins. As previously mentioned, Tether managed to increase its coins in circulation by 1.2%, not recently seen on the market. While Miota and Filecoin increased the number of their coins by 0.6% both, Polkadot had a decrease of 4.0% compared to the week before. Several other altcoins had an increase in coins which are circulating on the market by 0.1%. Crypto futures market After a strong shift of the crypto futures during the last four weeks, the previous week brought some relaxation in prices of the crypto futures. Short term correction from the spot market was reflected also in both BTC and ETH derivatives. BTC short term futures ended the week by more than 2% lower from the week before, with December this year ending the week at a price of $37.075 or 2.4% lower on a weekly basis. Longer term futures ended the week at some lower pace, around 1.8%. Futures maturing in December next year were last traded at price $39.135 or 1.88% lower from the week before. March 2025 was closed at $39.850 and slipped from $40K level, traded two weeks before. ETH short term futures had a higher drop of more than 7% on a weekly basis. Futures maturing in December this year ended the week at the level of $1.973, slipping from the $2K psychological level. At the same time, longer term futures were traded more than 4% lower, where December 2024 ended the week at price $2.087 and managed still to hold above the $2K line.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
MARKETS week ahead: November 13 – 19Last week in the news Fed Chair Powell's speech one more time impacted the market sentiment, where EU equities finished the week lower, while positive sentiment still holds the US equities. Gold and commodities eased during the previous week, as well as 10Y US Treasuries. The crypto markets continue to be under impact of the ETF frenzy, which might continue to hold in the weeks to come. Bitcoin tested levels above $37K; however, $38K resistance remains a hard task. Fed Chair Powell held a speech for the IMF audience in Washington during the previous week, where he noted that he is still not sure if he and his Fed colleagues have done enough to bring the inflation down to targeted 2%. He noted that they are still balancing between doing too much and doing too little. He also addressed the market expectations that the Fed might cut rates during the course of the next year, noting that Fed will increase further interest rates if inflation “reaccelerates”. After the speech, the equity market headed for lower levels, while 2Y Treasury yields again headed toward the 5%. Rating agencies continue to lose confidence in the US Government. During the previous week, the rating agency Moody's cut the US long term credit rating to negative from stable. This is the result of rising risks when the country's fiscal policy is in question. As noted in the agency's statement “in the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues”, the agency puts into question further debt affordability for the US Government. Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse expressed his opinion that the SEC has “lost sight of their mission to protect investors” in an interview with CNBC. The SEC and the crypto industry have been on different sides for some time now. While, on one side SEC is insisting to put the crypto industry into the current legal framework related to securities, even through legal disputes, the crypto industry is not ready to comply, requesting a different set of laws. Several legal cases have been won, where dispute with Ripple was the first, and lasted for more than two years. Ripple won as the judge ruled that XRP is not a security. Garlinghouse expressed his hopes that the crypto regulation will stop being ruled by court decisions and that laws governing digital currencies will be adopted by the Congress. While the spot BTC ETF frenzy is still hot on the market, another one hit it during the previous week. There has been news that BlackRock, the largest asset management fund in the world, is seeking ways to list its first ETH ETF, while still waiting for the SEC`s approval of its first BTC ETF. The news came out that the entity called iShares Ethereum Trust has been registered in Delaware, US. Whether this news is true, BlackRock officials refused to comment, however, ETH was significantly supported with it, reaching $2.1K during the week. The United Kingdom has scheduled a world conference for crypto tax evasion for the year 2027. The aim of this initiative is to set rules by which tax authorities between countries, signatories of the agreement, will exchange information between each other with the aim to fight offshore crypto tax evasion. Currently 48 countries signed up, however, several largest countries when it comes to the crypto industry, like Turkey, India, China, African countries and Russia are not within signatory to the statement. Crypto market cap ETF frenzy is widely shaking the crypto market. During the last few weeks it was all about potential introduction of the first spot BTC ETF, however, starting from the previous week, the frenzy added to it Ethereum`s token ETH. Namely, there has been published news that BlackRock, the largest asset manager in the world, is seeking the way to list its first spot EFH ETF. The company refused to comment on this news, so for the moment, there is a question whether such news is officially true or not. Still, as markets like to buy the news and later sell the fact, it did not matter too much for investors who were rushing to invest both into BTC and ETH. Total crypto market capitalization was increased by 10% during the week, adding $125B to its value. The crypto market cap reached the level of almost $1.4 trillion, the last time seen in April last year. Daily trading volumes were significantly increased during the week, reaching a level of $104B on a daily basis, which might be treated as the crypto market is getting back to its old track. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 84%, where it has added total $637B to the market cap. It was another positive week for almost all crypto coins on the crypto market. Gains during the week are reminiscent of a period when the crypto market was booming. Almost all coins gained during the week, with BTC and ETH leading the market. In nominal terms BTC was once again the weekly winner of the market, which added $47B to its market cap or almost 7%. ETH managed to beat BTC in relative terms, by increasing its market cap by 13.3%, adding to it almost $30B on a weekly basis. Major altcoins also had significant gains, like Solana, with an incredible weekly increase in value of 43% where it has added a total $7.5B to its market cap. Among significant gainers are also BNB, which gained $2.8B or 8%, LINK added $2.8% or 45%, ADA surged by $2.45B or 21.5%. Both Polkadot and Polygon increased their market cap by $1.4B both, increasing it by around 24%. It should be noted also significant gain made by XRP of $3.4B or 10.6% on a weekly basis. All other altcoins were among weekly gainers. There has also been significant activity when it comes to coins in circulation. Tether is back in the game, by adding 1.5% coins and increasing its market value for this amount. Polkadot managed to increase its circulating coins by 4.6%, while Algorand`s coins were up by 1.0%. Filecoin has also added new coins into circulation of 0.9% w/w. There have been a lot of other altcoins which increased the number of available coins by at least 0.1%. Crypto futures market The frenzy from the BTC and ETH spot market was also reflected in the futures market for these coins. BTC short term futures were last traded higher by more than 7%, while the longer term ones were up by more than 4%. Futures maturing in December 2023 were last traded at price $37.985 or 7.59% higher from the week before, while those maturing in December next year closed the week at price of $39.885. It is interesting to note that BTC futures maturing in March 2025 reached the price of $40.615, which is a significant breakthrough when it comes to the expectations of the BTC price for the future period. ETH futures were strongly supported by the unconfirmed news that BlackRock will probably file for the ETH ETF in the future period. Short term futures were traded higher by an incredible 14%, while long term ones were up by more than 12% on a weekly basis. ETH futures maturing in December this year finished the week at price $2.135, while those maturing in December next year were last traded at $2.175. It is positive for ETH that its price for the future period managed to finally break the $2K psychological line.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
3 Scenario Outcome for BitcoinSpeculation is just that, only speculation. Ideas to guide your trading and/or investing journey. I put a good amount of time in researching and charting over the last year to specifically develop this thesis. I hope you enjoy and please like and share, even if it's to ridicule my analysis! With that said, it looks like there are three scenarios that are 'most' likely to play out over the next 2 years: Scenario 1: Worst case (Red Path). Bitcoin ETF's are denied and/or a major market crash happens beginning Dec '23 or Q1/Q2 '24. Targets are the lower channel back at bear market bottom, the Value area low (Blue) & nPOC (naked point of control sitting above VAL) or below, to include CME gaps of a. 20.3k b. 9.7k & c. 3k at the very worst. 12k bears will rejoice. I for one will be selling the farm and my first born at 9k or below. Scenario 2. Bitcoin ETF delays (Orange Path). The range continues with a top off near the Macro VAH at about where price stands as of today, 11/11/23 @ 37k-39k. Price would most likely seek to validate back to fair value at 32k, and then retest down to 20.3k for the CME gap fill creating one of the most powerful patterns as an inverse head and shoulders. Given the channels, this seems the most likely with an upside target to the VAH again near dump of April/May '22 and now resistance at 48k. Target is summer of '24. Scenario 3. Moon boy status (Green Path). This means the Bitcoin ETF was approved prior to any fundamental problems (ie FTX 2.0, WW3, declared depression, etc) and no need to wait for price to come down past 32k, possibly ever. B. There is the possibility of a priced in ETF scenario that allows for the channel to stay valid. In this case, if price action does not moon over 48k up to ATH's, it likely sets a re-accumulation zone above 48k, playing within the upper channel, with a last dip into the 30k's before we see ATH's. Either way, Bitcoin is ready to rock and roll. Now to the less juicy part of this bull run. Give the diminishing returns as most assets have as they age, it looks like 100k is going to be the biggest and baddest of all resistance from a percentage standpoint. Gone are the days of 33k% gains. From the top of each market cycle to the next top we go from over 1k% to now 250-ish% last cycle. Here's where I 'm at from a charting and fundamental stance: Bitcoin gets a 44-54% blow off top (Shown in price range) from previous ATH's up to 100k-ish. If it's more, great, sell because you've been stacking or you're long. Buy your lambo, more power to you. However, given the current M2 issue, loan maturations (refinancing in '25 from 2.9% to almost 5%) as well as the overall credit and savings crisis, Bitcoin's blow off top could be in the 80-88k range. That would put the total market crypto cap at ATH's of 3.5-4 Trillion range. If Chairman Powell decides to turn the printers on for 2025, then some of the moon boi's out there may see 150k, so we all win anyway from a plebs perspective. #Stackon
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by Zseries33
2
15 consecutive daily candles above totals descending channelWe can see price action came back down to retest the top trendline of this descending brown channel with exact precision and held above it now for 14 consecutive 1day candle closes. It is very likely to close a 15th consecutive candle here soon. We can see one wick back below the top trendline of the channel that was ultimately supported by the 1 day 5ma(in orange). That 50ma is now getting closes to rising above the channel itself for added springboard support. We can also see that the daily stoch rsi is reet as well with plenty of room to head upward. Everything is looking very good for the breakout of this channel to be validated in the ear future. *not financial advice*
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by DrDovetail
1
"Analyzing the Total Crypto Market's Breakout and Support Shift"Being a contrarian thinker, I often hold opinions that differ from the mainstream, whether it pertains to stocks or cryptocurrencies. I find myself venturing down an unconventional path, distinct from the majority. The provided weekly chart depicts the total cryptocurrency market, excluding Bitcoin. Here are some key observations: Price action has successfully broken free from a resistant trend line that had persisted for two years. This indicates a significant shift in market dynamics. Furthermore, this former resistance has now transformed into a confirmed support level, a development that underscores the potential for continued positive momentum. The mention of "10x" likely refers to a significant increase in value attributed to a wedge breakout. Additionally, the term "flag pole" suggests that the market's peak can be projected following the breach of previous resistance levels, akin to the early stages of the 2021 bull market. However, it's important to exercise caution and remember that this upward trend may not apply uniformly to all alternative tokens (alt-tokens). In contrast to the past, where a broad approach could yield success, the current market demands selectivity. Therefore, it's crucial to make well-informed choices when navigating the market. Regarding the possibility of further market corrections, while it is technically feasible, it is not deemed likely based on the presented analysis. In summary, the analysis emphasizes the value of contrarian thinking and suggests a promising outlook for the cryptocurrency market, albeit with a need for discerning and selective investment strategies. In the daily time frame, the total market capitalization for cryptocurrencies (often referred to as "TOTAL2") is currently in the process of breaking out of a symmetrical triangle pattern. From a technical analysis perspective, this breakout suggests the potential for a 50% rebound in the market's overall value, as dictated by the symmetrical triangle pattern. Symmetrical triangles are typically seen as continuation patterns, and their breakouts often signal the possibility of a significant price movement in the direction of the breakout. Therefore, the current breakout from the symmetrical triangle is being interpreted as a signal that the market's total capitalization may increase by approximately 50%. However, as with any technical analysis, it's important to consider other factors and perform comprehensive research before making trading decisions. This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2Long
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
MARKETS week ahead: November 6 – 12Last week in the news The Fed has temporarily stopped further increase of interest rates, as per Fed Chair Powell, but the market perceives that interest rates have topped. The US equities started November with a positive sentiment, as well as US Treasury bonds. Gold was testing $2K resistance during the whole week, amid geopolitical tensions. The crypto market is still under ETF hype mode, gaining during the week, but Bitcoin is still holding modestly below $35K resistance. The major event during the previous week was the FOMC meeting, and rate decision as of November 1st. The Fed decided to hold interest rates unchanged, but at after-the-meeting testimony Fed Chair Powell noted that potential further rate increases are not excluded by FOMC members, as such decisions will depend on further developments in the US economy with respect to inflation and employment. Friday’s trading session was positively supported by the US unemployment figures. Non-farm payrolls were increased by 150K in October, lower from market expectations of 170K, while the unemployment rate rose to the level of 3.9% from 3.8% posted for the previous month. Wages were increased by 0.2% in October for the month, to 4.1% on a yearly basis. These figures represent one of the gauges for the Fed as a potential inflation indicator, in which sense, market expectations are that the inflation might further ease till the end of this year. News that occupied the attention of the public during the previous week was the finalization of the trial of FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried. The jury found him guilty of all seven counts, by which, he is currently facing a potential sentence of 115 years in prison. October ended, but the US Securities and Exchange Commission did not issue any approval or disapproval of several filings for the first spot BTC ETF. The SEC`s Chair Gary Gensler commented on Thursday that the SEC has 8 to 10 filings for considerations, without any further comment on the topic. It seems that the SEC still needs more time in order to make the final decision. Until then, analysts are speculating over the potential funds to inflow into the crypto market after the approval of the first ETF. Current estimates are ranging from $ 14B up to $55B within the next three years. As Coindesk is reporting, the SEC requested additional documentation for PayPal`s stablecoin PYUSD. As seen by the reporters, this represents the latest regulatory action amid businesses that include crypto assets. As noted, it does not necessarily mean that potential lawsuits might be in store for PayPal, considering SEC`s perception that majority of altcoins and stablecoins are securities and should be officially registered with the SEC. Crypto market cap October is over, but there has not been any news related to the first spot BTC ETF. The SEC remained silent, neither approving, neither disapproving several ETF fillings. The only news reported by Reuters is that SEC Chair Gensler shortly commented that the Commission is currently reviewing 8-10 ETF filings. When the final decision will be brought up is unknown at this moment. Regardless of a new postponement of the decision, the market remains optimistic about the crypto market and its further inclusion into mainstream markets. During the previous week total crypto capitalization was increased by additional $35B or 2.8% on a weekly basis. Although Bitcoin continues to dominate the crypto market cap, still, this week other altcoins contributed to the total increase of the market value. The last time the crypto market held this level of capitalization was during May last year. Daily trading volumes continue to hold at increased levels of $60B on a daily basis, without change on a weekly basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 68%, where it has added total $512B to the market cap. Although Bitcoin is for one more week leader on the market when it comes to the total market cap increase, still, during the previous week there has been significant inflow of funds into major altcoins on the market. BTC increased its total capitalization by $11.8B on a weekly basis, which is an increase of 1.78%. ETH also had a solid performance with a surge of $5.3B in total market cap or 2.48% w/w. During the previous week Solana had an excellent performance, with an increase in its market cap by almost $ 4B, which represents a surge of 29.3% for this coin. XRP had another good week, by managing to increase its cap by additional $3.5B or 11.9% on a weekly basis. When it comes to excellent weekly performance, it should be mentioned ADA, which added more than $ 1B to its cap, which is an increase of 10.3%, and was followed by BNB, which added $1.2B and an increase in cap by 3.5%. Altcoins with good performance in a relative terms were NEO, with surge in cap of 15.3% w/w, Theta was up by more than 12%, same as OMG Network, Uniswap has increased its value by 13.7%, while Polkadot was up by more than 10%. It should be mentioned that only a few coins finished the week in red, like Bitcoin Cash, which was down by 3.55% w/w, Maker lost more than 9% of its value, while DOGE lost 0.7% in value. During the previous week there has been modestly increased activity related to coins in circulation. Miota increased its circulating coins by 0.6%, followed by Filecoin, with an increase of 0.5%. Stellar`s coins were up by 0.3%, while Solana`s coins were higher by 0.2%. Tether should be mentioned, as the coin increased its value and circulating coins by 1.0% on a weekly basis. On the opposite side, few altcoins decreased the number of its circulating coins, where Polkadot`s total coins decreased by 1.1%, Polygon's drop in circulating coins was 0.7%. Crypto futures market Positive market sentiment is still holding with crypto investors, both on spot and futures markets. BTC futures for all maturities were traded higher by more than 2% on a weekly basis. Short term maturities were up 2.75%, with December 2023 ending the week at price of $35.305 on CBOE. Longer term maturities are still holding above the $38K price range, which is very positive for BTC, as investors are pretty confident at this moment regarding the potential for future price increase of the BTC from current levels. Futures maturing in December 2024 ended the week at level of $38.225 or 2.65% higher from the end of the previous week. At the same time, futures maturing in March 2025 ended the week at price $38.925, which supports the sentiment of further rise in the value of BTC. ETH short term futures were traded more than 2% higher on a weekly basis. December 2024 is ending the week at a price $1.859, which is 2.64% higher from the end of the previous week. Same as with BTC, investors are also expecting further increase in value of the ETH, with December 2024 futures ending the week at price of $1.937 or 0.99% higher, while those maturing in March 2025 ended the week at $1.964. Still, what is interesting to note for the price of ETH is that it is still not able to cross the $2K psychological level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX