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CRYPTO week ahead: April 30 – May 6Last week in the news Another week marked with potential failure of the banks in the US. The First Republic Bank was for one more time in the news as its share price significantly dropped in value during the previous week. For one more time, the crypto market has been supported by insecurity of depositors in the banking sector. On other hand, equities gained on earnings reports. Bitcoin is finishing the week modestly below $30K, Ether is holding above $1.9K. Situation with the First Republic Bank is not improving. The bank went into problems during the same period when Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank collapsed, but managed to survive the first wave of troubles in the banking sector. Management of the bank managed to buy some time to restructure the bank and put it into recovery. However, as per news from the previous week, it seems that this will not be the case. Share price of the bank dropped by 43% on Friday, as the news spread that the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation would most probably have to step in. Since the beginning of this year, shares of the bank dropped by 97%. This news once again supported the crypto market, bringing BTC back to $30K level. Crypto industry requires clear guidance from regulators, however, SEC Chair Gansler noted that current regulation is sufficient and that the industry needs to comply with it. Coinbase (COIN) was the first company to fight for this guidance through court. Namely, the company used U.S. Circuit Court to pressure SEC to answer with simple “yes or no“ to the company`s petition from July last year, when they officially asked SEC to “propose and adopt rules to govern the regulation of securities that are offered and traded via digitally native methods”. The SEC did not make any comments on Coinbase's petition. The Blockchain Association CEO, Kristin Smith, commented on the current state of developments as “absolute war” between crypto industry and US regulators. Regardless of regulators' view, the mainstream industries are continuing to incorporate crypto currencies and wallets into their business. Mastercard announced the launch of verification standards for cross-border transactions, called Mastercard Crypto Credential. These set of credentials will allow compliance with the Financial Action Task Force`s travel rules. At the same time, PayPal announced that the company will enable on-chain transfers from Venmo wallets, from May this year. Ripple announced its XRP Markets Report, noting that the company sold HKEX:361 million worth of XRP tokens in Q1 this year, which is an increase from HKEX:226 million in Q4 2022. Ripple is developing its international payment network which is based on XRP token, with the aim to allow international payments excluding correspondent banking. During the forthcoming week, both ECB and FED` rate decisions are scheduled, which promise some increased market volatility. Crypto market cap Banking crisis continued in the US, with First Republic Bank currently in the spotlight. The latest news published by CNBC on Saturday is that a few big banks, including JPMorgan and Bank of America are asked to place bids for First Republic Bank. Such news is increasing the insecurity of bank depositors and, at the same time, positively impacting the price of major coins. Depositors are seeking a safer place for their funds, transferring part of their funds into crypto coins, especially Bitcoin. Similar situation we have already seen with the collapse of SVB and Signature bank, which drove the price of BTC toward the $30K. Total crypto market capitalization was increased during the previous week by 3%, adding FWB:33B in value of the market. This drive was mostly influenced by Bitcoin, which added $30B to the cap on a solo basis. At the same time, daily trading volumes were modestly decreased to the level of $52B on a daily basis, from $71B achieved during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 54%, where it has added a total $409B to the market cap. Due to the banking crisis, BTC was the absolute winner of the previous week. The coin managed to gain $30B in value, increasing its market cap by 5.7%. BTC was followed by Ether, which managed to add $3B to its market cap, increasing it by 1.3% w/w. Other coins were traded in a mixed manner. BNB was on a losing side, decreasing its cap by $1B or 2%. Coins with good performance in relative terms were Litecoin, with an increase in cap by almost 4%, Solana gained 6%, Filecoin 3% and ZCash 3.3%. Few coins lost significantly in value during the week like OMG Network with a drop in value of 12% and Algorand who lost 8.3% in value. As for coins in circulation, there has been a relatively larger number of small changes, among which Tether continued to gain with 0.3% w/w, while Filecoin, Polygon and Polkadot gained 0.3% each in total circulating coins. Crypto futures market The price of Bitcoin continues to be supported both on the spot market and on the futures market. Banking crisis pushed the price of the BTC futures to the upside during the previous week, where short term futures were traded by almost 8% higher from the end of the week before, while futures with longer maturity closed the week by some 6% higher. Futures maturing in December 2023 were traded at price $30.5K, while those maturing in December next year ended the week at price of $31.3K. Market continues to positively perceive future prospectus of BTC price. At the same time, ETH futures were traded in a mixed mode, and without any significant change in price from the week before. Short term futures were up around 3%. Positive developments were with futures maturing in December this year, where the price managed to hold above $1.9K. Price for the futures maturing in December next year remained almost unchanged, but on a positive side is that it still holds above $2K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: April 23 – 29Last week in the news A relatively calm week on financial markets, but not for the crypto market, as it went into short term retracement during the previous week. Major negative sentiment is coming from news related to regulation of the crypto businesses both in the US and EU. Bitcoin is ending the week above FWB:27K , while Ether is still holding above $1.8K. The most important news during the previous week was final adoption of the Markets in Crypto Assets regulation, or MiCA, by the European Parliament. It represents one of the first comprehensive regulations covering crypto business in the world. The regulation requires crypto businesses to be officially registered in one of the EU member states. Companies are required to comply with risk management rules, and need to have adequate governing processes in place in order to avoid any possibility of another FTX-style collapse of the company. Rules related to stablecoins, require companies to maintain enough cash reserves in order to meet demand in times of high volatility. Although, this represents significant improvement when it comes to regulation of the crypto industry, still, this law is not covering specific cases like crypto-staking or lending. Whether US regulators will follow the EU example is to be seen. Certainly, the majority of the crypto companies in the US are calling for clear rules in order to conduct business outside of the current gray zone. During the time of the MiCA adoption, there has been a hearing in Washington, where SEC Chair Gary Gensler was under fire when it came to clarity of the crypto rules applicable in the US. However, he dismissed all accusations, noting that there is a question whether current crypto businesses want to comply with current rules, while for any sort of additional rules, this industry would have to wait for some other time. Based on his statements, it doesn’t seem that any sort of new digital-asset regulation will see the light of the day in the near future. On the other hand, several large crypto exchangers announced that they are considering moving their business overseas in order to avoid scrutiny from the SEC. There has also been news over the regulation of the crypto industry from the Bank of England. Namely, it has been noted by the CB officials on the possibility for the UK to adopt a similar law as in the EU for the digital-assets industry within next 18 months. At the same time, they commented on the possibility to put a cap on stable coins in order to avoid financial risks which these coins might have on the UK financial system, especially banking system. Recession fears are again topic number one among economists in the US. Namely, latest data show that there is a significant drop in lending activities, which would most certainly impact economic slowdown in the coming period. As a reminder, this was a prediction of several prominent economists from the beginning of this year, that potential for economic slowdown will most certainly hit the market during the second half of this year, based on which, some of them are expecting for FED to even cut interest rates. Crypto market cap There has not been much significant news on the macro data during the previous week, which is the main reason why equity markets remained relatively calm. Still, there has been a lot of news when it comes to regulation of the digital-asset businesses, both in the EU and US, which imposed a negative market reaction and short reversal to the down side. On one side, the EU Parliament adopted a so-called MiCA regulation, imposing a strict rule for the crypto business within 27 EU member states, while on the other hand, SEC Chair Gansler noted in a testimony his expectations for all crypto businesses in the US to comply with current Securities Law in the US, and that it should not be expected any kind of new regulation which would specifically address digital asset businesses. Although EU regulation was generally perceived as a positive among market practitioners, still, the market was disappointed by the standing point of SEC Chair Gensler, as it means that crypto firms in the US might face continuous scrutiny from the US regulator. This means probably more penalties and difficulties to maintain business in the US, in which sense, several large players on the US market already expressed the possibility of moving their businesses overseas. Total crypto market capitalization dropped by 8% during the previous week, losing some $104B in value. Daily trading volumes remained stable during the week, moving around $71B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase since the beginning of this year currently stands at 50%, where it has added a total $376B to the market cap. All coins ended the week in red, except stablecoins. Major coins were the ones which were dragging down total crypto market cap in nominal terms. Bitcoin lost $54B in value, or more than 9%. BTC was naturally followed by ETH, whose drop in value was $27B or 10.6%. XRP was another coin with a significant drop of $2.7B in value, losing more than 10% on a weekly basis. Cardano also lost $2B in its cap, which represents a drop of 12.6%. Interestingly, BNB was not in a group of significant losers, as it manages to hold its price steady, due to previous negative news surrounding Binance exchanger. During the week the coin lost only 1.1% and around $0.6B in value. In a relative term, some of the highest losers were DASH who lost around 18% in the market cap, Polygon was down by 13%, same as Filecoin. Tether continues to gain coins in circulation, adding 0.6% during the previous week. Filecoin traditionally continues with an increase of circulating coins, adding 0.5% on a weekly basis, while during the previous week Algorand also increased its coins by 0.3%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market reacted to spot market reversals with decrease of future prices. On a positive side is that prices for longer term futures dropped less than the short-term ones. BTC short term futures ended the Friday trading with a drop of more than 10%. On the other side, futures with maturity in December this year were down by 7.5%, same as futures maturing in December next year. December 2023 was lastly traded modestly below $30K. ETH short term futures were traded down by around 13%, while longer term ones dropped by more than 7% and 4% as of the end of the week. Futures maturing in December 2023 ended the week at price $1.9K, while those maturing in December next year were closed at $2K.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
1
CRYPTO week ahead: April 17 – 23Last week in the news Inflation figures in the US are showing a decreasing trend, however, FED is still not sure whether it is time to halt further rate increases. These were the major news during the previous week which were driving the market sentiment. Both equity and crypto markets finished the week in a green zone. Bitcoin reached levels above $30K, while Ether was strongly supported by the Shanghai hard fork, ending the week above psychological $2K. The US inflation data published on Wednesday, show a further slowdown in prices in the US. As per data released, the consumer price index reached 5% y/y in March, which is a drop from 6% y/y in February this year. The drop in inflation is mainly influenced by the drop in energy and food prices, which were the main drivers of increased prices during the previous period. This was clearly a sign for the markets that the easing in FED's monetary tightening might soon come to an end. At the same time, FED is still not in the same line with markers. Namely, as per published Minutes of the FOMC meeting, it seems that the FOMC members are of opinion of potential negative repercussions of the recently fallen banks on the economy, which might trigger a mild recession during the second half of this year with potential for recovery within the next two years. Same documents revealed that FED is expecting for the US economy to slow down to 0.4% during the course of this year. A long awaited Ethereum`s Shanghai hard fork has been successfully implemented during the previous week. One of the most important features of this upgrade was to allow holders of the staked ETH free use of their coins. This upgrade strongly supported the price of Ethereum`s token, which reached psychological level of $2K. Although many crypto professionals were noting the possibility of a negative impact to ETH`s price, if the majority of holders of staked ETH start selling their coins, still, it did not happen. Based on the announcement from Twitter, this company will soon allow its users to trade stocks, cryptocurrencies and other assets from their Twitter accounts. This comes as an exclusive deal between Twitter and eToro exchanger. Dogecoin gained on this news almost 6% in value, following the still strange market relationship between Musk and DOGE. The decentralized finance exchanger Uniswap announced that the company launched a wallet which can be used on mobile phones. As per statement, this application will be used to promote DeFi`s and allow its users to buy cryptos at a flat rate of 2.55%. Crypto market cap Positive market sentiment has been supported during the previous week by weakening of US inflation data. As it has been officially published, inflation in March in the US was 5% y/y, and down from 6% y/y in February. This brought some confidence among market participants on the possibility that the FED will stop with further increase of interest rates in the coming period. Still, on the other side, released FOMC minutes are showing that FED officials are concerned over potential recession during the second half of this year, as a result of the recent banking crisis. Nevertheless, at this moment economic data remain mixed, as well as next FED monetary moves, but the market has waited for so long to get in a positive mood and bullish trend, that they are currently dismissing mixed signals. Total crypto market capitalization has increased during the previous week by 8% w/w, adding $90B to its value. BTC and ETH were the ones to gain the most in nominal figures. Daily trading volumes returned to the pre-holiday levels, trading around $79B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year currently stands at 63% , where it has added a total $480B to the market cap. Major coins on the market were the ones to gain the most in nominal terms during the previous week. BTC is still the most traded coin, which gained more than 8% during the week, adding $47B to its market cap. ETH continues to gain on a Shanghai upgrade, surging by 12.5% within a single week, increasing its market cap by $28B. BNB had relatively solid week, in which the coin increased its cap by $2.7B or 5.5%, and was followed by Cardano who surged by $2.3B or 17.7%. As for other altcoins, only a few of them lost in value during the previous week.Several coins with a good performance during the week were Solana, with a surge in market cap of 20.8%, Zcash increased its cap by 11%, while Maker added more than 13% to its cap. It was one of the rare weeks, where there has been a lot of changes in circulating coins of crypto currencies. Tether continued to gain further, adding 0.92% coins w/w. At the same time BNB decreased its circulating coins by 1.3%, which is rare to see on the market. Filecoin continues to increase its coins in circulation, adding 0.9% during the week. Crypto futures market Positive market sentiment from the spot market was also reflected in the crypto futures market. BTC short term futures were traded around 9% higher from the week before. Long term futures were up by more than 8% w/w. Last trading price for futures maturing in December this year was $31.120, while December next year was closed at $32.180. The prices continue to reflect positive market sentiment for the future price developments for BTC. ETH short term futures ended the trading week around 13% higher from the week before, while long term futures were up by more than 7% w/w. Regardless of current positive market sentiment, still, the ETH futures curve took inverted shape for one more time. Namely, short term ETH futures have higher value than the longer ones. On a positive side it is that long term futures are still holding above the psychological level of $2K. ETH futures maturing in December this year ended the week at price $2.049, while those maturing in December next year were traded at price $2.099.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
ETHUSDT - 3 price points that it will go to. OKX:ETHUSDT is at a daily resistance level Move 1: Price rejects resistance, moves down to 1560 to retest support zone Move 2: Price rejects resistance, moves down to 1769 to retest minor support before bouncing back up. Targeted TP at 2160 Move 3: Price breaks resistance to 1990 (Week resistance), retrace to 1933 before making its way up to final TP at 2160/ Entry Tf: 1 hour Entry style: Breakout with confirmation, or Breakout during volume period, or Breakout with news Enter after price moves. Don't predict.
by lesnermj
CRYPTO week ahead: April 10 – 16Last week in the news The markets closed higher on Friday in a wake of Easter holiday and US latest job market figures. At the same time, the crypto market slowed down, after strong resistance at levels from the last two weeks. Bitcoin is ending the week testing $28K short term resistance, Ether was supported by Shepella upgrade, which pushed the price above $1.8K. The important data was released just before the Easter holiday started on Friday. The US non-farm payrolls grew by 236K in March, which was in line with market expectations of 238K. This is also an decrease from 326K in February. At the same time, the unemployment rate fell to 3.5% in March, from 3.6% during the previous month, which was not in line with the figure which the market was anticipating, while payrolls were increased by 0.3% in average hourly earnings, which was the lowest increase within two last years. Latest figures were perceived positively by economists, as they show that the year-long FED`s fight with inflation is finally starting to reflect in real figures. This is also pointing to the possibility of FED`s further slowdown in monetary tightening, and potential halt in raising interest rates by the end of this year. The Consumer Price Index will be released on Wednesday next week, which will add to the picture about the current state of the economy and FED`s measures. During this week Ether price was strongly supported by the news that the major upgrade called “Shepella '' will be released. The aim of this upgrade is to allow for the owners of the staked coins to withdraw them, without using centralized exchanges or DeFi protocols. After the Merge fork released in September last year, this is perceived as another important upgrade of the Ethereum network, perceived highly positively by the market. The major upgrade is scheduled to occur on April 12th, called Shanghai fork, which also might imply higher volatility of ETH`s price. Elon Musk`s and Dogecoin`s “love story” continues even after Musk`s purchase of Twitter. Namely, the price of DOGE surged by almost 30% after Elon Musk replaced the logo of the company with an image of a shiba-inu. This change was not visible for all Twitter users. Although Twitter did not comment on this short change of logo, still the analysts are commenting on the possibility that it comes in response to an ongoing lawsuit of federal agencies in the US who are accusing Musk for manipulation of DOGE price. The latest issues in the banking industry strongly supported crypto currencies, and brought stablecoins into stoplight. The USDT, largest stablecoin pegged to the US dollar, reached a market capitalization of HKEX:80 billion, surging 20% within a single week. Just as a reminder, the highest USDT capitalization was FWB:83B right before the crypto winter. India is another country which is currently in a testing phase of its central bank digital currency, or CBDC. The pilot program, which started in December, reached 100K users as of the end of March. India`s central bankers targeting 500K users in July. Crypto market cap Although both EU and US markets were closed higher on Friday, as fears of banking contingencies slow down and in the wake of Easter holiday, still, the crypto market was traded relatively flat during the previous week. Posted job figures for the US on Friday gave some confidence to investors that FED`s potential slow down with further increase of interest rates might be just around the corner. At the same time, it is evident that correlation between equity and the crypto markets are at minimum. The crypto market is slowing down, after an excellent start of the year, which is evident on charts and prices of the crypto assets. Total crypto market capitalisation remained relatively flat compared to the week before, losing some $5B on a weekly basis. Major coins on the market were also traded in a mixed mode. Daily trading volumes dropped significantly during the week, to FWB:41B on a daily basis, from $72B a week before. This could be a result of forthcoming holiday weekend, and not general trend on the crypto market. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year remained at 52% , where it has added a total $390B to the market cap. It was a relatively mixed week on the crypto market, with evident slowdown in daily trading volumes. Ether was certainly a star of the week, considering that its price was strongly supported by the so-called Shepella upgrade of Ethereum network. Ether`s market capitalization was increased by more than 2% on a weekly basis, which added almost $5B to its value. Bitcoin slowed down, losing 1.4% as of the weekend, which is a drop of almost $8B on a weekly basis. DOGE was one more time supported by Elon Musk, so the coin ended the week with a gain of 9% w/w or $1B in market cap. Other altcoins were traded more or less flat compared to the week before. As for coins in circulation, it was a good week for Tether, whose circulating coins were up by 0.6% w/w, but reaching a significant milestone, as it managed to move above $80B in market cap for one more time in the history of this coin. Crypto futures market In line with spot market movements, the crypto futures market had a mixed trading week. BTC short term futures ended the week down by more than 2%, while longer term futures were relatively flat compared to the week before. There has not been much changes in levels of futures maturing as of the end of this year, which were closed on Friday at the price of $28.745, and those maturing in December next year, which were traded at price $29.725. ETH futures were traded higher compared to the end of the previous week, supported by the news on successful upgrade of Ethereum network. In this sense, short term futures were traded higher by some 1.7% on average, while longer term futures ended the previous week 5% higher. It is positive that both maturities in December this year and next year closed the week above $1.9K level.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: April 3 – 9Last week in the news Relatively mixed week on financial markets. Friday was closed higher on both EU and US markets, as fears on banking contingencies eased. The crypto market continues to be supported by the deposits outflow from the banking industry to more secure assets, including the crypto market. Bitcoin is testing higher grounds above $28K, while Ether is struggling to hold $1.8K. It seems that the inflation in the US continues to slow down. Previous week a personal consumption expenditures price raised 0.3% m/m, which was below $0.4% market estimate. Weaker figure came after the ease in oil prices, which put some relief on consumer prices. The PCE indicator is one of the favorites for FED when it comes to their inflation prediction, which put investors into a positive mood this year, assuming that quantitative tightening might soon come to an end. At the same time, the Euro zone inflation for March has been published. Although there has been a drop in headline inflation to 6.9% in March, from 8.5% in February, supported by the drop in energy prices, still, the core inflation rose to 5.7% y/y from 5.6% in February, supported by increase in retail prices. Binance exchanger was once again the spotlight of news, as the Commodity Futures and Trading Commission (CFTC) pressed charges against exchanger, noting violation of several provisions on the commodities law, whose aim is prevention and detection of money laundering and terrorism financing. The negative news was immediately reflected in the price of BNB, but also in the share prices of tech companies with main operations on the crypto market, like Coinbase and MicroStrategy. XRP continues to be positively supported, as leading people of Ripple are more convinced that they will win the battle with the SEC, during this year. In an interview with CNBC, Monica Long, president of Ripple noted that she is “very hopeful” about resolution of the SEC`s allegations. Cardano`s EVM company Milkomeda announced a new upgrade of the Cardano`s network, through which, all users of the Cardano network will be able to access smart contracts on Ethereum Virtual Machine through ADA wallets. This will be the next step for Milkomeda, as they already support connections between Caradano and Algorand networks. Visa is expanding the use of the Bitcoin rewards app Fold. As it has been announced, the app Fold will now be available in North America, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean through prepaid debit card products. Visa is continuing to support its partnership with Bitcoin, as demand for the crypto currencies is rising. Crypto market cap Markets are digesting all news that hit the banking industry recently, where some optimism was back on the markets. The situation calmed down as there has not been any new news about potential contingencies and when the central bankers and government figures were trying to calm down the population ensuring them that the banking sector is stable and solvent. Still, deposit outflows from traditional banks are evident. People are still looking for a safe place for their deposits, but currently it comes with a slower pace of outflow from the previous period. Total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat on a weekly basis. Coins were traded in a relatively mixed mode, with Bitcoin still dominating the crypto market. Total crypto market cap was increased by 2% compared to the end of a previous week, bringing modest $26B to the crypto market cap. Daily trading volumes remained relatively flat, still moving around $72B on a daily basis, for a second week in a row. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year modestly moved to 52% , where it has added total $395B to the market cap. For a second week in a row, the crypto market was traded in a mixed mode, but Bitcoin continues to dominate the market and a drive of total crypto market capitalisation to the upside. During the previous week, BTC added $17.4B to its market cap, which is an increase of 3.2% on a weekly basis. At the same time Bitcoin Cash and Bitcoin Gold lost in value, when their total cap dropped by 1.6% and 3.8% respectively. The second largest coin, ETH, gained 2.9% w/w, but at the same time, its coins in circulation were down by 1.6% w/w, which is rare to see on the market. BNB was hit by the negative news around Binance exchanger, so the coin lost some 2.6% in value, decreasing its market cap by $1.3B. Among other altcoins, OMG Network was a huge surprise with a drop in market cap by 16% within a single week. On the opposite side, Uniswap had an excellent week, with an increase in the market cap of almost 30% and also by increasing its circulating coins by 22% w/w. XRP continues to gain on positive news about potential resolution of the SEC dispute, where the coin managed to gain additional $3B in value, which is a weekly increase of more than 12%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market had a relatively calm week, in line with spot market developments. Short term futures for BTC were traded higher by more than 2% compared to the week before, while ETH futures were up by more than 3%. At the same time, longer term futures slowed down, during the previous week, ending the week at prices lower from the week before. BTC`s futures maturing in December this year were traded lower by 1.6%, same as futures with maturity in December next year. December 2024 ended the week below $30K, at a price of $29.690. Similar situation was for ETH long term futures, where prices dropped by more than 2%, with December 2024 dropping below $1.9K level, and ending the week at price $1.860.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Total is pressing up, 1.5T could be nextAfter a 2-month consolidation of around 750 in November and December last year, Total started to rise at the beginning of the year and in mid-February passed above the 1T important zone. A correction followed, but the bulls took control again once it dropped again under 1T, putting in a higher low on our chart. For 3 weeks now the price is consolidating just under important horizontal resistance and is looking like bulls are waiting for a trigger to break. In the case of a break, this would be of great importance, confirming a very large inverted H&S pattern, started in June 2022. The measured target for the pattern is around 1.5T, a zone that is very nicely aligned with another important horizontal level. As long as the price is above the 1.05-1.1 zone I'm bullish
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by Mihai_Iacob
12
CRYPTO week ahead: March 27 – April 2Last week in the news Markets were digesting all events from the previous period during the previous week. The fear about another banking crisis is still in the air. At the same time FED increased interest rates for another 25 bps, despite some opinions that it will further negatively affect the banking sector. The EU equities market was closed in red on Friday, amid negative news surrounding German Deutsche bank, while US equities remained relatively flat compared to the week before. The crypto market continues with gains, but at the lower pace from the week before. Bitcoin is finishing the week struggling to hold $28K, while Ether holds a $1.750 resistance line. The minute we thought that the dust over the collapsing banks was over, the end of the week brought another news related to the largest German Deutsche bank. The issue is that nobody actually knows what is going on with the bank, but the panic in the news started the moment when spreads on credit default swaps for this bank started to widen as of the end of the previous week. After that, a sale of bank shares started, so the price slid by 14%. The bank did not comment on the latest developments, however both Olaf Scholz, a German Chancellor and Christine Lagarde, a President of ECB, were giving statements, ensuring that there is no any sort of issue with bank`s liquidity and solvency. Analysts are mentioning that the latest move on the market is triggered by contingency fears from recently collapsed Credit Suisse, but the issue here is, why exactly at this moment is such a correction occuring, as issues with the Swiss bank lasted for a few weeks? This is certainly one important news to watch closely, considering the size of the Deutsche bank and its significant global presence. It seems that the US passed its banking crisis, however, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told a House panel that additional actions could be taken by the US Treasury in case that American`s deposits are in some cases jeopardized. During the previous day, she also noted to the US senators about a plan to insure all U.S. bank deposits, however, it should not be done without an approval from Congress. During the previous week there has finally been some news from the crypto industry. Namely, leaders of the crypto industry told CNBC that they are not happy with the current gray zone of the regulation, which the SEC is trying to impose, but instead they would be much happier with a clear guidance from U.S. government and regulators. This comes after the SEC sent another notice to the Coinbase, noting that they are potentially violating the U.S. securities law. At the same time, the US indeed is lagging behind many other countries on setting up the clear rules for the crypto industry. While the US is still not sure whether it wants crypto or not, the president of El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, stated that he intends to propose the bill by which all taxes on both software and hardware innovations will be eliminated in the country. El Salvador's President Bukele was the first president of one country who introduced Bitcoin as a legal tender. The National Bank of the United Arab Emirates made an announcement over the finalization of the first phase in its currency strategy by mid-2024, by which the country will introduce its own digital currency – a digital Dirham. The first phase is expected to be finalized within the next 12 to 15 months. Crypto market cap Banks were in the spotlight of the market for the second week in a row. News are moving from the collapsed ones to the potential banks which might fall under difficulties due to contingencies of the fallen ones. Important event during the previous week was FED`s further increase of reference interest rates by another 25 bps. Market analysts speculated if the FED would continue with further rate increases, considering that strong shifts in interest rates are hurting banking liquidity and solvency capacities. The bottom line was that FED continued with its policy of breaking down the inflation, while Treasury Secretary Yellen, was the one responsible for calming down the market with wording over potential insurance of all American deposits. Of course, it is clear that the rhetoric is aimed to calm the markets, and most importantly, to stop deposits outflow from banks. Although the crypto market had an extremely good week two weeks ago, during the previous week the situation calmed a bit with the relatively mixed performance. Total crypto market capitalization remained relatively flat compared to the week before. Daily trading volumes were decreased to the levels of $72B on a daily basis, from $135B a week before. Total crypto market capitalization increase from the beginning of this year still holds at level of 49% , where it has added a total $369B to the market cap. Crypto coins were traded in a mixed mode during the previous week. Bitcoin is still leading the market to the upside, with weekly gain in the market cap of $4B or 0.7%. Ether finished the previous week in red, losing $4,5B in the market cap or 2%. BNB was another main coin which did not manage to sustain previously reached capitalization levels, due, its market cap was decreased by $2B or 4% within a week. XRP again had a good week, by adding $4B to its total capitalization and surging it by 21.6%. This move was supported by the news related to potential resolution of the SEC dispute. Tether continues to gain on market fears on banking contingencies, and gained during the week another $2.7B in market cap, increasing coins in circulation by 3.7%. In a relative terms OMG Network had a good week as the coin surged by 25% in a single week. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market ended the week in a more positive manner than the spot market. BTC short term futures were up around 3% on a weekly basis, while long term futures surged by additional 13% from the week before. Another positive development is that maturities in December 2024 reached level above $30K for the first time after a long time. December 2024 ended the week at price $30.175, while December this year was last traded at price of $29.185. ETH futures were traded higher but at a lower price increase from BTC futures. ETH short term maturities were only modestly up around 2%, and long term futures ended the week by 8% higher from the end of the week before. December 2024 was last traded at price of $1.904. Above noted price levels are important also from the aspect of market perception of the future developments. Namely, after a longer period of inverted futures curve, finally there is some indication that the market is positive about future price developments for both coins.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Bitcoin: Can the bulls hold on?Judging from the current trend of Bitcoin and the overall market sentiment, the pressure level of 28,500 above is too strong to break through in the short term. There is a need for Bitcoin to withdraw, but the 27,000 below is still the key support for Bitcoin.Yesterday, Bitcoin broke through the recent high and stood near 28472, and then retreated to near 27300. It seems that Bitcoin will be trading sideways at least in the short term. At present, the Bitcoin price is oscillating back and forth at a high level, and the pressure above is strong, making it difficult to break through in a short period of time. Even if the Bitcoin price can continue to rise, it will at least need to be confirmed by stepping back to accumulate upward momentum during the rise, so there is a demand for retracement in the short term. On the other hand, the supply of Bitcoin on exchanges has increased significantly in the past week or so, which may also mean that BTC may face selling pressure. In the short-term treatment, the lower support is near 27500, and the initial pressure above is near 28500. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
Short
by Short-term-king
CRYPTO week ahead: March 20 – 26Last week in the news Second week on financial markets as a game of nerves. This time, banks were in the center of the game. Too-high-too-fast monetary tightening is reflecting into squeezed banking liquidity, both within the US and some European banks. The US equity markets were closed in red on Friday amid new potential banking contingencies. On the other hand, the crypto market gained significantly during the previous week, but the question is whether it was on healthy grounds? Bitcoin is ending the week around $27K, Ether around $1.750. Last week brought a series of unfortunate events within the banking sector in both the US and Switzerland. The Silicon Valley Bank collapsed over the significant run off of depositors. The bank tried to attain liquidity through liquidation of $21 billion of Treasury bonds, with $1.8 billion in losses, however, it was not enough. The deposits were insured with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation but only to the level of $250K per depositor. What will happen with the rest of deposited funds in this bank, it is unclear at this moment. Signature bank was also closed, in the meantime. Currently, another troubled US bank, the First Republic Bank, tried to be saved by 11 other banks which lend $30 billion to First Republic for 2 months, however, at the end of the week there has been news that this amount would not be enough to secure liquidity. Shares of the bank were down by 30%, decreasing possibility of a sale of the bank at a decent price. Europe also had a busy banking week, with Credit Suisse, a Switzerland based bank, as a main player. The bank was struggling with its business and several scandals within the last two years, however, during the previous week it all collided into a final liquidity squeeze. The bank was not able to secure additional capital, so, at the end, the Swiss National Bank entered into the playfield, by supporting the bank with $50 billion. As per initial information it should help the bank to pass through the current difficult time, but it seems rather like a short assistance until the bank finds a buyer. Bloomberg had reported that the largest Swiss bank, UBS, is in talks of possible takeover of a part of Credit Suisse`s business. Despite the general banking crisis in the Western countries, the ECB raised its interest rates during the previous week by additional 50 bps. As per ECB president Lagarde, the ECB will probably continue with rate increases, until the inflation is finally on the road to targeted 2%. On the other hand, a FOMC meeting will be held during the week ahead, where it is expected that the FED will continue with its rate increases by 25 bps. The markets are now anticipating first rate cuts as of the end of this year. On the other side of the globe, the People Bank of China announced a cut of the reserve requirements for banks by 25 basis points. The aim of such a decision is to allow banks in China to secure enough liquidity to support economic recovery in the country. After severe lockdowns during the previous period, the authorities in China set a target of 5% economic growth for this year. Crypto market cap Certainly, the previous week was another one with a game of nerves on financial markets. The crypto market gained significantly, but it was not at all a healthy surge. It was mostly supported by people who were transferring their funds from banks to the “safer” place like crypto currencies. Before the crypto market was invented, in such situations like a banking crisis, investors would pull their money into gold and other metals, but this time was different. The price of gold did make a gain, but not as high as the crypto market has. Some crypto enthusiasts are arguing that it is exactly why crypto currencies were made – to bring freedom from government control and bad banks. It might be on a metaphysical level, but the current truth is somewhere in the gray zone, which means that governments are slowly gaining some control over the crypto market, which we have seen during the previous period. Here we also need to take into account a high speculative capital on the market, which is trying to gain as much as possible from the latest developments. Overall, no matter how good the latest surge in the price of crypto coins is, still on a long run, it increases the risks of a run-off from the market when the current banking crisis resolves. In this sense, it is still early for a “told you so” moment for crypto enthusiasts. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 23% on a weekly basis, reaching for another time this year levels above $1 trillion. Daily trading volumes remained at modestly higher levels, moving between $160B, down to $ $135B on a daily basis. Interestingly, trading volumes were lower from the week before, when the market traded around $170B on a daily level. Total crypto market capitalization surged to a 49% increase since the beginning of this year, adding total $368B to the market cap. Significant increase in the market cap during the previous week was led by the BTC with a gain of total $136B in the market cap, increasing its value by almost 35% within a single week. ETH also managed to attract investors with an increase of $42B, which is a surge of 23.5% from the week before. In the group of significant gainers in the nominal terms belongs also BNB which surged its market cap by almost $10B or 22.7% on a weekly basis. Tether was another coin worth mentioning, as it has added $3.6B to its market cap and increasing number of circulating coins by 5.7%. Majority of altcoins gained in relative terms around 20% with only a few coins which added less than 10% to their market cap. After many weeks with continuous increase of circulating coins, during the previous week Filecoin pointed to a decrease of 2.3%. Crypto futures market The crypto futures market reacted to developments on the spot market and increased prices of futures accordingly. All maturities gained in price, however, what is symptomatic is that the maturities price curve took again an inverted shape. Short term futures are again higher in prices from the longer term one for both BTC and ETH coins. It seems that investors are still not convinced that current macroeconomic developments would be reflected in increased prices of coins in the future period. BTC short term futures were traded around 35% higher from the week before, while long term futures were up by around 25%. BTC maturities in December this year finished the week at level of $25.720, while those maturing in December 2024 were traded at price of $26.590. ETH short term futures were up by 23% w/w, while the long term ones were up by more than 19%. ETH futures that mature in December this year ended the week at level of $1.717, while those maturing in December next year were traded at price of $1.750.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: March 13 – 19Last week in the news Previous week brought the game of nerves on financial markets. At the beginning of the week FED Chair Powell stressed that the interest rates would have to go higher from previously estimated levels, while the week-end brought concerns over potential collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank. Both US and EU equities finished the week in red. Not a better situation was on the crypto market, where Bitcoin ended the week around $20K resistance, and Ether is holding above $1.4K. The Federal Reserves were for one more time a game-changer on financial markets. Although the beginning of this year brought at least some positive sentiment that the fight against inflation might soon be over, after the FOMC started slowing down increase in its interest rates, a FED Chair`s Powell Congress testimony revealed that the FED is not even near its previous estimates. Namely, he openly noted in testimony that the rates could go even higher from currently anticipated 5,25% if inflation remains persistent and probably the increase would be at a faster pace from current 25 bps. Markets immediately changed expectations for a 50 bps increase in rates in March, from previous 25 bps. Based on data published on Friday, the US nonfarm payrolls rose 311K, more than market estimate, confirming the assumption that inflator pressures will persist, as well as FED's rate increases. Troubled crypto-friendly Silvergate bank was in the market spotlight during the previous period, but during the previous week it has officially noted that the bank is winding down its further operations. However, at the end of the previous week there was news about venture-capital-friendly Silicon Valley Bank. The bank went into trouble after not being able to secure funds for further operations. Namely, the Silicon Valley Bank was well known in the Silicon Valley as a financial institution which was strongly supporting start-ups especially in the tech industry. Since the latest meltdown on the financial and crypto market, many depositors withdraw their funds, and the bank was not able to secure further funding even after a sale of its Tbonds worth $21 billion with $1.8 billion of loss, neither was able to secure $2 billion of additional capital. The bank is currently under supervision of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation in order to secure the rest of deposits. The final resolution for the bank will probably be known during the following week. Not all investors see current developments as negative. Cathie Woods is one of the rare investors still ready to buy at significant discounts and current prices. As per news, Ark Invest bought additional $22 million worth shares of Coinbase. With the latest purchase the Fund currently owns 9,9 million of COIN shares with market value of $575 million, or 3,8% of COIN shares. Crypto market cap FED was once again a game-changer. Trading on financial markets during the first half of the week was a reflection of FED Chair Powell`s testimony in the US Congress, where he expressed views on potential higher interest rates from previously projected if inflation persists. At the same time, he noted a possibility for pace of rate increases to be higher from previous 25 bps. Markets immediately reacted where 2Y Treasury bonds reached levels above 5%. Equity markets were traded lower, and the crypto market followed. The end of the week was marked with another shock, when VC-friendly Silicon Valley Bank collapsed after experiencing significant outflow of deposits. That event triggered a significant sell-off on the crypto market, where all coins lost a huge portion of the value. Total crypto market capitalization ended the week 7% lower from the week before, losing additional $68B. Crypto market cap is still holding above $900 trillion and is still in a positive territory compared with the end of the previous year. Daily trading volumes were increased to the level of $170B on a daily basis, compared to $56B traded during the week before. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 21% since the beginning of this year, adding total $156B to the market cap. The only coin which gained during the previous week was Tether, by adding a 1,90% to the volume of coins in circulation. Majority of stablecoins were affected with the latest downturn, where USDC fell below $1.0 peg. Major coins on the market were participating with 80% in total crypto market cap drop in nominal terms during the previous week. Bitcoin was down by 8,9%, losing $38B in market cap. Ether followed BTC and dropped its market cap by 7.3% or $14B. BNB was also affected, where its market cap was decreased by $2.1B or almost 5%. Solana was also down by $1.1B or by more than 15%. Other coins with significant drop in value in relative terms were Litecoin, who dropped by 24%, NEO was down by 23%, DASH dropped by more than 32%, OMG Network decreased its value by 24%. As for coins in circulation, during the previous week Monero decreased its circulating coins by 5,2% w/w, EOS coins were down by 0.3%. while Filecoin continues with its strong push for the circulating coins, increasing its number by 5,2% during the previous week. Crypto futures market It has been the third straight week in which both BTC and ETH futures were traded at lower grounds. At the same time, the last week`s market run-off triggered over $300 million losses in liquidations of the open positions and margin calls. Coins traded on CME exchange ended the Friday trading lower from the current spot prices. BTC short term futures were traded by more than 10% lower from the end of the previous week, while longer term futures were down slightly below 15%. BTC futures maturing as of the end of this year were traded at price of $20.63K, while December 2023 was traded at price $21.33K. ETH short term futures were traded lower by less than 10%, while longer term futures prices dropped by more than 14%. ETH futures maturing as of the end of this year ended the week at price $1.44K, while those maturing in December 2023 were traded at price $1.470.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
CRYPTO week ahead: March 6 – 12Last week in the news Both EU and US equity markets were closed higher on Friday, after easing in the US Treasury yields. The market had priced available information regarding further tightening of monetary policy, however, the week ahead is bringing some important data which might bring back volatility. At the same time, the crypto market slowed down amid concerns regarding the Silvergate crypto-friendly bank during the previous week, with Bitcoin ending the week above $22K, and Ether holding above $1.550. Inflation in the Euro zone continues to surge, data showed. During the previous week, published yearly inflation figures for February showed a further increase of 5,6% y/y, above market expectations of 5,3%. There is an increasing number of economists who are pointing that the planned 50 bps ECB`s increase in rates in March would not be enough, and that probably additional 100 bps should be needed in the coming period. At the same time, still strong US employment data impacted the strengthening of the USD, but most importantly, it made an additional impact on the US Treasury bond yield curve. Namely, the 2-year T-bonds reached a level of 4,86%, which was last seen in June 2007. This bond is mostly watched by the market due to its sensitivity to FED`s moves and certainly as a signal to markets that the FED will continue to hike rates in the coming period above current levels. On the other hand, there are analysts who are voicing that the FED is currently lagging behind the yield curve with rate increases, and that 25 bps would not be enough to cope with inflation. Binance exchanger is once again in the news spotlight. This time is due to several senators in the US Congress requesting detailed information on the Binances`s business operations due to concerns over the company's illegal practices. Senators are especially pointing to Binance`s anti-money laundering and sanctions law practices and compliance with the US regulation in that respect. Binance USD coin issued on the Paxos fell below a $10 billion market capitalization, since Paxo`s announcement that it will halt minting new BUSD, as it has been requested by the New York Department of Financial Services. This comes after a concern from regulators that Paxos is offering unregistered securities. Published statements of the Silvegate crypto bank showed that its business has been hurt by the crypto implosion as of the end of 2022., when the bank lost more than $8 billion in deposits. At the same time, the bank faced investigations from regulators but also potential restating of its financial statements after the ongoing audit was finalized. Special warning to the markets was an announcement from the Silvergate bank that it is closing its SEN platform, which has been used by bank`s clients to transfer their funds from bank to other exchangers. Coinbase (COIN), a cryptocurrency exchanger, announced that the company had acquired One River Digital Asset Management. As a rationale for such a decision, the company is noting that it is looking to expand its business to investment advisory service to the institutional clients. Crypto market cap Questions regarding FED`s future monetary tightening is still the main topic on the market. Still, during the previous week the crypto market has been impacted by the news regarding Silvergate bank development and its potential further deterioration in business due to crypto implosion as of the end of the previous year, when the bank went into the spotlight of regulators after the collapse of the FTX exchanger. During the previous week, total crypto market capitalization decreased again below the level of $1 trillion, reaching $980B. This represents a decrease of 3% on a weekly level where the crypto market lost more than $34B in value. At the same time, daily trading volumes continue to be decreasing, trading around $56B on a daily basis, which is a further decrease from $88B during the week before. For one more time the crypto market is slowing down, which is its usual course of action during the times of high uncertainty of market participants. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 30% since the beginning of this year, adding total $224B to the market cap. Major coins on the market were the ones which led to last week`s drop. Bitcoin was a leader on a negative side, losing $14B on a weekly basis or more than 3%. Ether`s loss in market cap was relatively lower, holding at $4.5B or more than 2% compared to the previous week. BNB was hit by the negative news around Binance exchanger, where the coin`s cap was down by $2B or around 4%. Majority of altcoins were mostly down up to 10%, with few coins with higher loss in market cap, like Miota and Theta, which were both down by more than 16%, ZCash was down by 15%, or Filecoin with a decrease of 12%. On the opposite side, few altcoins managed to perform with a positive weekly result, like Maker, with a surge of 23%, EOS was up by 11%, while NEO managed to gain 6% compared to the previous week. As for coins in circulation, the winner of the week was Monero with a surge in coins in circulation of 5.5%, and was followed by LINK, which increased its coins by 1.8%. Crypto futures market During the previous week crypto futures were traded a bit lower from the spot market. This comes as a result of significant liquidations of long positions after negative news regarding the Silvergate bank. BTC short term futures were traded down by more than 4%, while longer terms were traded in a calmer way. Futures maturing as of the end of this year were closed at price $24,14K, almost flat compared to the week before, while maturities in December 2024 were down by 1%, ending the week at price $24,96K. ETH short term futures ended the week about 3% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December this year and in 2024 were relatively flat on a weekly basis, where December 2023 ended the week at price $1,67K, while December 2024 was traded at price $1.719.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Bitcoin Immediate short term ⚠️UPDATEWhat are the reasons for the recent decline in the value of Bitcoin? In both Timeframes 1W and 1W BTC printed a Bearish Divergence Bitcoin has been moving sideways for the past 33 hours, while altcoins have been bleeding hard. What's next ? Bitcoin's current major resistance level is $22800, and if it loses its current support level, the next target will be $21.5k. If breaking 22.8k resistance i am expecting BTC to bounce to 24.1k. And 27k, only if daily closing above 25.3k That was the reason why btc was dumping hard recently. Note: Predictions and chart analysis made more accurate when jumping into a higher timeframes. ⚠️ Not a financial advice. Happy trading ❤️ Follow me on Quora for daily updates Flor Bejleri
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by MatrixCrypro
CRYPTO week ahead: February 27 – March 5Last week in the news Stock markets were closed lower on Friday, amid fresh inflation data in the US. The crypto market entered into a short reversal, but is still holding above last year's lows. Bitcoin is finishing the week around $23K, while Ether below $1.6K. Personal consumption expenditure price index is one of the main indicators for the FED to anticipate where the inflation is heading. During the previous week, released PCI figures showed an increase of 0.6% in January, bringing it to 4.7% on a yearly level. This was higher from market expectation of 0.5% for a month. This was also a signal for markets that the FED still has a job to do with further inflation fighting, which would most certainly include further increases of interest rates. As per analysts, current predictions assume further increases by the mid-year, after which, the FED might slow down, of course, if they manage to break the demand side. A group of 20 (G20) nations held a meeting with the IMF in order to discuss current debt restructuring issues for troubled countries, but they also used the opportunity to mention crypto currencies. The IMF Chief Kristalina Georgieva used this opportunity to distinguish between central bank digital currencies backed by fiat currencies, including stable coins, from coins which are privately issued. In this sense, she argued for tight regulation and supervision for privately issued coins in order to avoid risks for financial stability. In case that regulation is unable to put strict controls over crypto currencies, then she noted that they should be banned. As per a CNBC report, the US SEC is “gearing up” to put some charges against Paxos, a company that issues stablecoin. As per the same report, during the previous week the New York state`s regulator ordered Paxos to halt further issuance of BUSD. The Paxos company commented that it has been ordered by the SEC to register BUSD as a security. The situation with Paxos is very important for other issuers of stablecoins, as they might also be requested to impose the same procedure. There has been further news with respect to crypto regulation. As per the Financial Action Task Force report from its last meeting, this global institution will set action for implementation of its global standards for crypto. The FATF is a global institution of 206 members with the main task to set global standards for money laundering and terrorist financing. The European Central Bank published a document “Rollout approach for the digital euro” in which it exposes Eurosystem`s analysis on the approach to rollout the digital euro. As per document, the priorities of the introduction of the digital currency will be peer-to-peer transactions and online purchases, while the commercial and governmental use are scheduled for the second phase. Crypto market cap Assumptions of the market participants that the fight with inflation is still not over are finally supported through official data. The released PCI figures last week showed an increase of 0.6% in January, bringing it to 4.7% on a yearly level. It collides with other figures posted previously, which provided clear signal that FED will most probably further increase interest rates until the mid-year, at least. The targeted 2% is still far away, which decreases market optimism. Both the equity and crypto market lost some of value during the end of the previous week. Total crypto market capitalization is down by 6% or $60B on a weekly basis, but still the total cap holds above $1 trillion and also above the level where the market finished in 2022. At the same time, daily trading volumes continue to decrease, reaching around $88B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization has increased by 34% since the beginning of this year, adding total $259B to the market cap. Major coins on the market were leading market capitalization drop during the previous week, participating with 75% in a total decrease of $60B. Bitcoin decreased its market cap by $31B or 6.5%. BTC is followed by Ether, with weekly drop of $12B in the cap or 5.8%. Last week BNB has also been on a down road, with a decrease in cap by more than $2B or less than 5%. Polygon also experienced a significant decrease in the market cap by $2B which is around 16%. On the other side, NEO was a coin which led rare crypto gainers during the previous week. Namely, the coin managed to increase its market cap by 16% within a single week. This move was supported by the news that NEO will be one of the ten blockchains to form China's new Blockchain Service Network (BSN). Miota is another coin with positive weekly outcome, as it managed to surge its market cap by more than 4%. Tether and Filecoin are two coins which are leaders of the market when it comes to increase of circulating coins. During the previous week, Tether`s total circulating coins were up by 0.7%, while Filecoin had a gain of 0.9%. Crypto futures market Crypto futures were traded in line with spot price moves. However, positive developments in the slope of future prices continue. Regardless of a general drop in prices, the crypto futures for December 2024 for BTC were traded higher by 0.84%, while ETH futures for the same period were up by 0.76%. This expresses market optimism regarding future prospectus for these coins. Short term BTC futures were traded around 7% lower from the week before. Futures maturing in December 2023 were traded down by some 3%, ending the week at level of $24K. At the same time, ETH futures had a lower drop in prices, where short term ones were traded around 5% lower on a weekly basis, while December 2023 was down by 0.7%, ending the week at level of $1.687.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
Bitcoin ($BTC): Price Action Analysis & Forecast in medium-termHi everybody! In recent months my view on Bitcoin has not changed and only technical analysis will tell me "if and when" to change my mind. Well, as mentioned in our latest weekly analysis, the approach to the resistance area (Pivot + MA200) was expected, so we are not surprised by the rally triggered during yesterday's session. In support of this analysis, the Market Cap Index (TOTAL2) also seems to prove us right (see chart below), even if at the moment, on weekly chart, the trend is bearish, yet. Another interesting element is to see "how" $BTC triggered this bullish leg from 15,000 (that's why I don't use indicators or oscillators in my analysis). Today and in the next sessions, my supporters and I will continue to follow the dynamics on lower time frames (daily and intraday chart) in search of the next swing that should push the Price Action towards a consolidation. From a technical point of view, I think it is much more important to follow the opening of the next weekly bar than the closing of this candle....but this is just my opinion... TOTAL MARKET CAP ANALYSIS (Click & Play on Chart below) BULLISH LEG from 15,000 AREA (Click & Play on Chart below) Trade with care! 👍 ...and if you think that my analysis is useful, please..."Like, Share and Comment" ...thank you! 💖 Cheers! N.B.: Updates will follow below
by TheAnonymousBanker
4
Technical analysis of major crypto currencies Feb 20 – 26Last week in the news The US equity market was traded in a mixed manner during the previous week amid fears of potential higher inflation which would imply further FED`s monetary tightening. At the same time, the crypto market ended the week in a more optimistic manner, with Bitcoin heading toward $25K resistance, and ETH heading toward the $1.7K resistance. During the previous week there have been few surprises when it comes to US macro data and expectations on the inflation in the coming period. Published figures show that the US inflation was 5,6% in January, more than market was expecting, while core inflation stands at 6,4%, again higher from 6,2% where the expectations were standing. At the same time, retail sales were up by 3% in January, more than expected 1.8%. One of the currently quite important indicators, also published during the previous week, showed that the Producer Price Index in January was higher by 0,7%, from 0,4% expected by the market, which is the first indication that the inflation might not slow down in the following months. Posted figures were not welcomed by the market, as they indicate a potential for further FED's monetary tightening, through increased interest rates, while targeted 2% inflation still remains a hard target. The topic of digital Euro has been in a view of the European Central Bank for some time now, however, during the Q3 of this year, the heads of the EU central banks should bring up a final decision, whether the ECB should push the program of digital currencies further and start with official testing of the digital euro. The ECB President Lagarde, noted that the question of digital euro is more of the geopolitical, technological and economic topic where the EU might be set behind the US tech companies and China's advanced payment system. She also added that currently more than ⅔ of all card transactions in the EU are processed by the companies form outside the EU. Filecoin announced a launch of its Filecoin Virtual Machine on March 1st, instead in September this year, as it has been previously announced. Among many improvements that the FVM will allow to developers, one of the important features is related to the possibility of forming a bridge between FVM and Ethereum virtual machine, which would make easy transfers of tokens between two networks. This announcement pushed the Filecoin natural token to new highs, at $7,82 as of the end of the week. Crypto market cap Markets continue to be confused in a quest for clear signals over the state of the US economy. A strong job figures posted two weeks ago, in addition to higher producer price index and inflation in January, are adding to the assumption that the FED will continue with tightening monetary policy including further increases of reference interest rates. Although, during the previous week equity markets were traded in a mixed manner, the crypto market was resilient to economic news. There has been increased optimism, where total crypto market capitalization was additionally increased by 10%, adding $101B to its market cap. Almost all coins gained during the previous week, with major coins leading the surge in the market cap. Total crypto market cap reached for one more time levels above $1 trillion, and is on the road to further recovery. Daily trading volumes also increased, reaching around $116B on a daily basis. Total crypto market capitalization surged by 42% since the beginning of this year, adding total $319B to the market cap. Almost all coins gained during the previous week, but major coins are certainly the ones that contributed the most to the surge in total market capitalization. Leader of the week was Bitcoin, which managed to surge by almost 13% on a weekly basis, adding $54B to its market cap. BTC was followed by ETH, with an increase in cap by almost $19B or 10% in value. There are few altcoins with performance above $1B like Cardano, with an increase in cap of $1,3B or more than 10%, Solana, with a surge of 15% in market cap, or Polygon with an increase of $2B in cap or 20%. Filecoin is again a coin worth mentioning considering its strong increase of coins in circulation during the last few months. The coin also managed to increase its market value by an incredible 46% on a weekly basis adding $1B to its cap. This surge was supported by the announcement from Filecoin that Filecoin Virtual Machine will be released at the beginning of March. Crypto futures market General positive market sentiment was reflected on the prices of both BTC and ETH futures. The futures market was traded significantly higher compared to the week before. In line with the spot market, short term BTC futures were traded on average 13% higher from the end of the previous week, while ETH futures were up by some 10%. Increased spot prices were also reflected within long term price expectations, in which sense, BTC futures with maturity in December this year were closed at price $24.780, while ETH futures for the same maturity were closed at price $1.698 on Friday.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by XBTFX
TOTAl weekly observationThe Green box we are in currently has acted as Support and resistance ofr a few months now but maybe its time is coming to an end. I notalso note that the Descending channel that PA is in, is getting tighter and currently, as PA remains pressed under the line of resistance, the other line Gets closer. Time is running out for PA to react and react it Must - As you can see, the 112 day limit on the right is exactly when the two lines of Resistance cross each other Failure of PA t esed the similar time spans, as marked on the chart, and the 3rd should see us out of that Box, in an uptrend. You will acpe this would be a big move to lowwer support, probably back to wicking down to the $17K Mark on a weekly Candle PA needs to break UP Lets see
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL
by Orriginal