BTC - Halving Cycle | Historical Patterns & 2025-2026 Projection
In this chart, we dive deep into the cyclical nature of Bitcoin price action post-halving and draw parallels between past and current movements, with a specific focus on how the market has historically reacted at various intervals following each halving event. This analysis incorporates both structural and temporal elements, providing a potential roadmap based on previous behavior.
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Historical Context: Previous Cycles
3rd Halving – May 11, 2020
Following the 3rd Bitcoin halving, we observed a parabolic run-up over the next several months:
- 11 months after halving (April 2021): BTC reached a major peak, hitting nearly $65,000.
- This was followed by a significant correction.
- 19 months after halving (December 2021): Bitcoin printed a second top close to the previous all-time high, forming a classic double top pattern. This structure often signals market exhaustion and precedes deeper corrections.
Cycle Completion – Price Reversion
By 30 months after the 3rd halving (around November 2022), BTC had retraced much of its gains and returned to prices nearly equivalent to the halving level (~$8,000–$10,000 zone in log-adjusted terms). This marked the end of the cycle, confirming a full reversion to the mean after the double-top distribution phase.
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Current Cycle: 4th Halving – April 19, 2024
We're now entering the 4th post-halving cycle , and so far, the structure appears to be rhyming closely with the previous cycle :
- Pre-halving rally took BTC to ~ FWB:73K (March 2024), indicating strong bullish momentum leading into the event.
- If this cycle follows a similar path, we may expect:
- A first major top around 9 months after the halving , potentially at or above $100K.
- A second top forming around 17 months after the halving (projected for September 2025), possibly signaling the beginning of a broader correction phase.
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Projection: October 2026 (30 Months After Halving)
Using the same temporal framework:
- By October 2026 (30 months post-halving), the chart suggests a return to a much lower level , possibly around $50K.
- This projection mimics the post-double-top decline of the previous cycle, reinforcing the idea of cyclical mean reversion .
- It’s important to note: this isn’t necessarily bearish, but it highlights the cyclical and psychological nature of markets —boom, euphoria, distribution, and reversion.
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The Macro View: Halving Cycles Are Rhythmic
- Every halving has historically set off a new bull run, but the timing of tops and bottoms is shockingly consistent :
- Peaks often occur 9–18 months post-halving .
- Full cycle completion is around 30 months post-halving.
- These cycles are heavily influenced by supply shocks , market psychology , and macro liquidity cycles .
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Final Thoughts
This chart isn’t a guarantee—it’s a probability model based on cyclical symmetry. If history repeats or rhymes, we may be witnessing another textbook cycle play out, where a euphoric run in 2025 gives way to a deep correction by late 2026.
Stay alert for the double top pattern and macro divergences. Just as in 2021, timing the exit after the first peak can be the difference between profit and pain .
What do you think? Will Bitcoin follow the same 30-month post-halving trajectory?
