BTCUSD - 3000% Cyclical Long Trade? 4 Year PlanI am very bullish long-term toward crypto assets for various fundamental and technical reasons, particularly when it comes to bitcoin ($BTC) which is the most "institutionalized" crypto asset with its deeper trading history and, now, wide global recognition. As of this week, I see a very interesting opportunity from a technical perspective to try to get positioned long in BTC over the next 12-18 months. There will also eventually be opportunities to participate in the purchase of other crypto assets once enough of the bad crypto fruit is flushed out through consolidation, regulations become more clear, and new participants walk through the door (this is already happening now).
What is my trading method?
One of the first principles is to never trade against the trend! I have simplified the method here:
Part 1
Part 2
What do I see?
The breaking of 6K unleashed a big sell signal on the bigger timeframes. Since then the selling has been strong, with the market quickly coming to its knees (I expected to see such price action extended over a longer period of time). This is now a "buy blood" opportunity.
What's the trend?
On the weekly the trend is to the upside. Why? The EMA50 is trading well above the EMA200 on the weekly chart (take a look). Aside from this we have a potential falling wedge pattern (a classic reversal pattern). Careful trend analysis reveals that we now are beginning to see bargain prices and should anticipate the formation of a floor over the next 12-18 months.
How to proceed forward?
A bottoming of the price will require a consolidation time of approximately 1 year if we can form a long reversal wick within a month or two. This means 2019 will most likely be a sideways show. During this time, price action is likely to test lows multiple times which will provide multiple buying opportunities for an approximate 4 year trade.
***This is not investment advice and is simply an educational analysis of the market and/or pair. By reading this post you acknowledge that you will use the information here at YOUR OWN RISK
