Trend Probability Update for BTC and GOLDBTC showing slight weakness compared to last week, expecting consolidation
TPI has fallen approximately 20%
BTC is riding the sell line for the hunter algo, if we see rejection at this point there is no doubt in my mind that we go lower!
Short term TPI is weak:
Expecting a move down to fill out imbalance near 25K level
TVC:GOLD is still going strong and BTC has a high correlation to it still:
Stay safe out there <33
Hope you have a wonderful day
Cryptos
BTCUSD Bearish Cross ahead. Potential for 25500.BTCUSD is very close to printing a Sell Cross of MA50-100 (4h). This has been consistent with sell opportunities in February and March.
Unless the Rising Resistance breaks, a pull back to the MA200 (4h) is more probable.
Trading Plan:
1. Sell on the current market price as the Sell Cross is pending and we need to be ahead of the price action.
Targets:
1. 25500 (MA200 4h).
Tips:
1. The RSI (4h) is under a Falling Resistance, which is the same Bearish Divergence that led to the February 9th and March 10th bottoms.
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APTUSD After nailing the previous Top, we give you the next one!APTUSD/ Aptos hit the exact top we provided last time (chart below) and started a correction phase.
This correction phase is quite similar to October - December.
A 1D candle close over the Falling Resistance will be the signal to confirm a buy and may be closer than we think as the 1day RSI crossed over its MA level.
Target Fibonacci 2.0 at 24.00.
Previous chart:
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BTCUSDTHello traders ,what do you think about BITCOIN ?After its recent growth, Bitcoin has now reached the resistance zone, also the weakness in the trend is observed and the divergence in the RSI oscillator is also observed. We expect it to fall at least to the specified zone after a little fluctuation in this area
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Ethereum in the orange zone for quite a long time🟠👀ETH
Ethereum in the orange zone for quite a long time🟠👀
Need to break above $2,000 for the next bullish run IMO🚀
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Disclaimer:
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Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
Potential bounce off ADA 8H Fair Value Gap for the 3rd time?I see a potential trade with 1.23 RR
If the RSI bounces off the level of support it has, and continues to bounce to the recent high after filling out orders at one of the 8H fair value gaps, we could see a continuation of the trend
Believe we go lower the next candles if the flat back bearish HA candle closes like this:
Please give me some insight on your ideas on where ADA might be heading on the mid-short term
This is obviously not financial advice, I am just giving my insights on what I think could happen
1INCHUSD Filling all gaps, targeting 0.75000.1INCHUSD hit today the March 1st High, over both the 1day MA50 and MA200.
The RSI is over 50.00 and the price over Fibonacci 0.5. This is a bullish continuation sign.
With the long term pattenr potentially a Channel Up, target Fibonacci 0.786 which makes an ideal Higher High.
Target = 0.75000.
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ETHUSD: Final pull back before 2000.ETHUSD is on a Channel Up or Right Shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern, with the 1D technicals just coming out of neutral ground (RSI = 57.146, MACD = 35.420, ADX = 38.879). The Bear Cross on the MACD indicates a possibility for a pullback to the bottom of the Channel as in late January and February. That would be a huge technical buy, targeting R3 and 2,000, filling the Gap of August.
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BTCUSD: Still room to rise but limited on this patternBTCUSD is going for the 3rd straight 1W closing over the 1W MA50, a feat that we last saw on the week of November 29th 2021. This shows that the Bear Cycle is well beyond us, even the 1W technicals are healthy bullish (RSI = 63.821, MACD = 1086.700, ADX = 31.134).
If this Cycle's pattern is a Triangle like 2018/2019 then at the moment the upside is limited to approximately 35,000. With the 1W MA100 being close to the top, we can say that at 33,000 medium term investors may consider taking profits. Especially if the 1W RSI breaches the 70.000 overbought level. A pullback should be expected then that should serve as a new buy entry/ accumulation for the long term.
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BTC: Crypto Staged a Strong Comeback in Q1CME: Micro Bitcoin ( CME:MBT1! ) and Micro ETH ( CME:MET1! )
In First Quarter 2023, Cryptocurrencies rebounded strongly amid turmoil in the financial markets. CME Micro Bitcoin Futures (MBT) gained $11,825 or +71% year-to-date. Micro ETH Futures (MET) gained $510 or +39% YTD.
Bitcoin rallied amid the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Credit Suisse. While US government came to the rescue and Credit Suisse was taken over by UBS, crypto prices did not fall back down.
Gold, the traditional hedging asset, rallied in response to the SVB failure. Gold Futures (GC) recorded a YTD gain of +6.5%, while Silver Futures (SI) was down 3%.
US Equity Market was mixed in Q1. Nasdaq 100 has the best performance. NQ futures recorded a YTD return of +18.5%. S&P 500 (ES) was up 5.5% only, while Russell 2000 (RTY) turned up merely 2.7%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 1.1%.
What to Invest in a Flight-to-Safety
The fact that Crypto becomes the biggest winner in a flight-to-safety is remarkable.
Last year, as inflation was flying high and the Fed raised interest rates aggressively, investors flocked to the US dollar. Strong exchange rate and high yield make it a logical choice of safe investment.
We had expected the economic slowdown to start from the housing market and the high-tech industry. However, we found cracking at the heart of economy, the US banking system. Systemic risk is a clear and present danger facing us today. Bank runs spread from midsize banks to investment bank. Panicked investors pull money out of banks and also dump bank stocks and debts. Credit default swaps skyrocket.
In a new "Risk-Off" mode, investors abandoned fiat money and moved their asset into cryptocurrencies. For the first time, dollar is being viewed as a risky asset. This may be a game changer long-awaited by the crypto industry.
Crypto: A Separate Set of Risks
Last year, the entire crypto market lost $1.4 trillion as BTC fell from $67K to $16K. Big event risks include the failure of stable coin terraUSD, the collapses of the No. 2 crypto Exchange FTX and crypto lender Silvergate.
Outside of market risk, the biggest risk is a regulatory one. This week, US regulator Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) charges Binance against its illegal operations.
The CFTC has filed a civil enforcement action in the U.S. District Court of Illinois, charging Binance and three entities that operate the Binance platform with numerous violations of the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) and CFTC regulations. The complaint charges that Binance operates a centralized digital asset trading platform through an intentionally opaque common enterprise. The defendants allegedly chose to knowingly disregard applicable provisions of the CEA while engaging in a calculated strategy of regulatory arbitrage to their commercial benefit.
In its continuing litigation against the defendants, the agency seeks disgorgement, civil monetary penalties, permanent trading and registration bans, and a permanent injunction against further violations of the CEA and CFTC regulations.
The above illustrates the legal and regulatory risks faced by many crypto operators. Decentralization means that you are not protected by any government. Parking your Bitcoin at a crypto Exchange does not come with a $250K FDIC depository insurance.
None of crypto Exchanges have been in existence for over a decade. Thus, their business models are not fully tested in a boom-and-bust cycle.. So counter-party risk is the key. Watch who you're doing business with very carefully.
Short-term Investment Strategies
"Buy-low-and-Sell-high" is a well-tested investment strategy. But spotting the bottom is very difficult in the crypto world. If you rushed in when BTC dropped from $67K to $50K, you would still lose half of your money a year later. Instead of HODL (“Hold On to your Dear Life”), short-term trades may work better for high-beta assets such as Bitcoin and Ether.
CME Micro BTC futures (MBT) is useful for both bullish and bearish strategies. Contract notional is 1/10 of 1 BTC. Initial margin is $800. Today, BTC rallies by $1,064 to $28,393. If you purchased BTC in the spot market, you would realize a daily gain of 3.8%.
If you own a long MBT position, the dollar gain is $106, corresponding to 1/10 of a BTC. The theoretical return would be 13.2% (=106/800), which is 2.5 times higher.
Similarly, CME Micro ETH future (MET) has a contract notional of 1/10 of 1 ETH. Initial margin is $61. Today, ETH went up by $14 to $1,792, or +0.8% in the spot market. But a long Micro ETH futures position would gain 2.3% (=1.4/61), which is 1.9 times higher.
Investing in the CME market, investors could rest-assured to be free from default risk and counter-party risk. In its 175-year history, there was never a case of clearing member default resulting in a loss of customer fund.
Happy Trading.
Disclaimers
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
Buy Ethereum (Daily Timeframe)Ethereum is still in its uptrend channel on the daily and weekly timeframe after previously rebounding from its lower channel, support and demand zone at bottom of 1k.
Next target if the resistance and supply zone at area 2k break and with a close above, is at the resistance and supply zone at mid 3k.
BTCUSD Former Resistance turned Support. Targets 35k next.Bitcoin was trading in a Channel Up that broke upwards on March 17th and has since turned its former top (Resistance) into a bottom (Support).
This is best viewed with the use of the Fibonacci Channel extensions. Currently the price is trading between Fibonacci 1.0 and 1.5.
The 1day MACD Bear Cross is near and if it happens it can keep the price ranged inside the above range.
The next closing (over Fibonacci 1.5) targets 35000 on Fibonacci 2.0.
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BTCUSD: Retest of former Resistance and 1D MA50.BTCUSD is on a short term pull back with the 1D technicals bullish (RSI = 60.143, MACD = 1080.300, ADX = 37.344) but much less overbought than previously. Having crossed over the Inverse Head and Shoulder's Resistance (25,250), this pull back is most likely the Bull Flag that will retest is as Support, along with the 1D MA50, and will rebound to Resistance 2 (31,800) as the long term bullish reversal pattern suggests (technically the target can get as high as 35,000).
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Zcash vs Bitcoin begins Total Capitulation Wall ZEC BTC PrivacyThe vulnerabilities, discovered by Halborn in a 2022 audit of Dogecoin, were first disclosed to ECC and contributors to other affected networks on Feb. 14, and more details were relayed in a Feb. 17 call. ECC initiated our security process immediately and began coordinating with ZecSec.com, the independent Zcash-community-funded security team, and with Zcash Foundation, who analyzed the impact on zebrad, its own implementation of a Zcash node. We also reached out to Horizen, Komodo, and other teams with whom we have disclosure agreements.
Within days, we had zcashd patches ready for third-party testing, but the public releases have been delayed to allow other projects time to complete their own remediations and to allow for coordinated comms, given the sensitive nature.
Halborn found that the bugs could allow an attacker to utilize peer-to-peer network messages to fill the memory of a node and crash it. By crashing other people’s mining nodes, an attacker could potentially reduce, by around one half, the amount of hashpower they would need to mount a 51% attack on the Zcash network. A successful 51% attack could potentially be used to execute a double-spend attack, which could result in users who received transactions from the attackers losing their funds. We have no reason to believe that the Zcash network is currently vulnerable to a 51% attack — with or without the “one half discount” on the attack cost — but out of an abundance of caution, we’ve hardened the zcashd nodes so that they cannot be crashed using this bug.
BTCUSD And Not Buying Silly PricesHey Traders,
Upon this Morns Crypto News/Sentiment surrounding Binance... You have the option to make a decision. Eyes will race to that of the 'New' asset hot in popularity which is Bitcoin.
If you have to trade it, you always want to buy dips to attain value. There is no value really in buying high prices because naturally, you are getting a worse deal if long.
And yes, there COULD be a larger upside in the future. But show me how you can prove at this exact point in time, factually, that this will occur. That is a Discussion and not a fact. This is why you should buy dips, they are facts. Dips are low prices within moves up and therefore naturally retain more value than prices that have already had their wider move.
Now, if you are short, you need to minimise risk enormously because this asset is a HVA. Any shocking news that arrives (may see it with what's going on) can you blow you to smithereens. This is dangerous and often will happen if you are buying highs far away from key moving averages (that you always arrive back to). Often the further away from the 20/40 and further 100/200/500 the lower the market value in the opposite direction.
It's far better to just consistently ONLY buy things when they are cheaper and ONLY exit when they cost more. That is the natural art of dealing anything for long term gains.
Without acting in such way you are simply avoiding reality. If you are after the 'thrill' seeking aspect of Trading.. you WILL lose money. The market is not for thrill seekers it is for those who are in control of both MIND and also RISK. That is because what rules Trading is decisions made in the brain and the longevity of your equity management and damage control when you do make worse decisions. This mitigates the bad times and gets you back on the good.
If you do not manage both accordingly you will suffer, so make sure ya do. Remember Bitcoin only took off a few years ago we are not looking at something which has 30 40 50 years of price action and therefore inherently has greater risk. There CAN be upside. There really can. However, we are where we are and if you do not use factual price then you are guessing.
Trade small and trade safe always. Also, think about how you want your portfolio arranged.
KASUSD Little more room left on this rally.KASUSD/ Kaspa is rallying on a Rising Support. The 1day MA50 is also supporting for the past 2 months.
The RSI is also on a Rising Support, indicating no divergence form the prevailing bullish trend.
Target 0.0300, which as on the October/ November rise, it represents a +650% rise on the 2.382 Fibonacci.
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