BITCOIN Going to 18500 for a 1D MA100 rejection.Standard Channel Down for Bitcoin on the 1D scale. Since August 15th all Lower Highs were rejection a little over the 1D MA100 (green line). Currently the RSI is rising like the previous time. The 1D MA100 is now at 18900. With this projection the price can break it around 18500.
Will it get rejected again or this time will be different?
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Cryptos
BITCOIN Don't look beyong this indicator. Huge Buy!!Bitcoin's monthly CCI indicator has bottomed and is already trending upwards. The previous three times this happened, it marked the bottom on BTC and it started rising as well right after.
BTC has been in this range since June and it is not all that different from Nov 2018 - March 2019, March 2015 - Sep 2015 and December 2011 - June 2012. Technically this should be all you need to know in order to buy these extremely oversold levels. Buy and hold for the next 2 years. It is a cycle that keeps repeating itself and greatly rewards those with patience.
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AVAXUSD Don't get excited until it breaks these levelsAvalanche is having a good stretch in December but we can't lift our hopes yet as it remains below the 1D MA50 . Even if it breaks it, it will still be contained inside the Falling Wedge of June. Our signal to enter AVAXUSD will be when it breaks the 1D MA200 , which is untouched since April 10th. The bullish target will be $30.00.
Until this happen, with the RSI pattern looking increasingly like the last 1D MA50 rejection, it is more likely to see the Falling Wedge break downwards and make a new low on the 1.236 Fibonacci at $9.00.
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GMXUSDT Inverse Head and Shoulders target $86GMX recently broke out of an Inverse Head and Shoulders, a pattern that technically starts bullish reversals. Based on the RSI, one last pull back to the 1D MA50 isn't out of the question but it is highly probable to see GMXUSDT at $86 (2.0 Fibonacci) by the end of the year.
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AXSUSD Big pump on but nothing changes until this breaksBig rebound on Axie Infinity since yesterday but it is nothing we haven't seen before. The price did break above the 1D MA50 but remains within the 1 year Falling Wedge. The one line that hasn't been broken or even tested since January 5th is the 1D MA200 . A break above it, being near the top of the Wedge, and AXSUSD is off to its new bull market.
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ALTCOINS Watch alts explode in 2023 if Dollar moves lowerThe chart is pretty self-explanatory. The Crypto Total Market Cap (top chart), which is the market cap excluding Bitcoin has had strong expansion periods when the DXY (bottom chart) was on a downtrend. The pattern behaviour before and after those periods seem to be consistent between them.
Now the DXY had a major rejection on a Higher Highs Resistance that goes back to March 2015. The parabolic channel before that seems consistent with the one in 2016. If we get a similar downtrend channel to the 90.000 Support similar to 2017, when expect the alts to explode in a major alt season.
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BITCOIN Historically best buy NOW. $150k next peak.Let's keep things simple. The 1W RSI rebounded on the Channel's bottom in June, a Channel that has flawlessly caught all cycle bottoms since 2011 and as a matter of fact the Highs as well.
The first two cycles peaked a little below the 1.5 Fibonacci extension from the previous High (bottom to top of Bull Cycle). The last one peaked on the 1.236 Fibonacci. If the narrative changes in order to fit the Parabolic Channel that Bitcoin has been trading in and which is getting narrower offering lower returns in each Cycle (diminishing returns paradigm), then a 1.236 Fib on the new cycle would be almost exactly at $150000.
It will be a rough ride and things surely look far from ideal now but pessimism and (extreme) fear were always (much) more stronger at bottoms. Buy don't look back and get ready for $150k in 2025.
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LITECOIN: Doing the heavylifting of the new Bull CycleThe Litecoin has been testing the 1W MA50 (blue) line in the past two weeks for the first time since November 2021, indicating the bearish pressure that the market has been through these past 12 months.
This goes against the heavy selling pressure on Bitcoin and other high capitalization coins. We've mentioned countless times that LTCUSD tends to do the initial rise during Bull Cycles and this times is no exception as it is doing the heavylifting as the market is entering its new Bull Cycle.
In previous rallies, every time the 1W MA50 broke, the price also hit the 1W MA100 (green) line. On this long term Channel Up that has been trading on since the begining, it is obvious that the majority of the price action is done inside the 0.236 - 0.618 Fibonacci levels. The rallies of early 2019 and Sep 2020 - May 2021 started from the 0.236 and ended on the 0.618, respecting the high impact zone we mention above.
Although it is likely to see a full year of trading within Fib 0.0 - 0.236 before a hyper rally, it is also quite probable that if LTC closes a month above the 1W MA100, to see a full scale rally to the 0.618 Fib or at least the middle of the Channel Up.
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ETHBTC: Bitcoin will outperform Ethereum unless this line breaksThe ETHBTC pair on a 1W basis has been trading sideways this past month. The 1W MA50 (blue) is supporting. With also have another two rising Support levels, the Higher Lows trend-line A (started on Dec 26th 2016) and the Higher Lows trend-line B (started on December 23rd 2019).
The Resistance Zone since May 10th 2021 is holding and only if this level breaks, can we see an immediate rally on ETHBTC. Until we do, it is more likely to see Bitcoin outperform Ethereum as the candle action since March 2022 is similar to the one from September 2018 - May 2019. The 1W RSI is a testament to the repetitive nature since March 2016.
If we get a repeat, that would make a bottom on Higher Lows trend-line A and then steadily rise on Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
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BITCOIN The 5.3 is the magic number on every cycleThis is a breakthrough on Bitcoin charting as we've discovered the constant that is needed on each Cycle in order to calculate the gains of the next.
As you see Cycle 1 had 32700% gains. Cycle 2 gains were Cycle 1 gains (32700%) divided by the 5.3 constant = 61700%. Cycle 3 gains were Cycle 2 gains (61700%) / 5.3 = 11640%. Cycle 4 gains were Cycle 3 gains (11640%) / 5.3 = 2200%.
As for the bottom, it has been historically at or above the 0.382 Fibonacci level. That was at 20k and has been breached since June. Once a bottom is found we can again use the 5.3 constant to calculate the gains of Cycle 5!
Where do you think it will top and where do you expect the current bottom to be at?
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BITCOIN should start outperforming NASDAQ againThis is the BTCUSD/NDX ratio of Bitcoin against the Nasdaq on the weekly time frame. With Bitcoin suffering 2 weeks ago from the FTX crash, Nasdaq heavily outperformed the digital currency but last week a first attempt to balance the ratio was attempted and the price closed above the rising trend-line (Higher Lows) starting from the December 2018 bottom of the previous cycle.
This is a crucial support and if it holds it will be the new buy opportunity for the long term before Bitcoin starts to heavily overperform against the Nasdaq again. The Resistance that has been rejecting it since June is the 1W MA200 (orange) but the key level to break and turn bullish in all bull markets is the 1W MA50 (blue).
If broken, it would mean the accumulation is over and our firm will target the red Resistance Zone, which during the 2019 run it stopped the first wave of heavy buyers. Pay attention to the RSI as well. Holding what was previously a falling Resistance of Lower Highs, as the new Support, will be taken as a bullish signal.
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BITCOIN: Entering an accumulation phase. Real rise Q3 2023.Last week's flash crash due to the FTX event could be the last major price fall during this Bear Market. The Cycle's Falling Wedge has been printing the same RSI pattern as the Falling Wedge of the 2014/2015 Cycle. If that's anything to follow, then Bitcoin might have just completed step 6 with the FTX crash and might have just entered a long term accumulation period.
That period on the 2014/2015 Cycle ended when the 1W MA50 (blue) broke in October 2015 and the real rally started. If it plays out the exact same way, then we shouldn't be expecting a real rise on Bitcoin before the 3rd quarter of next year (2023).
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ADABTC can drop hard if the 1W MA200 is compromised1W chart representing the ADABTC pair on the current and previous Cycle. There is a clear Resistance and Support Zone and based on where the Stoch RSI is following the 1W MA50 (blue) rejection, we are expecting a strong drop if the weekly closes below the 1W MA200 (orange). If it is unrealistic to expect ADA to lose so much ground and revisit the Support Zone, then based on the Fibonacci levels, we can aim at the -0.13 extension (0.000009).
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Gold will stall/revert to near $1708 before moving higherI know many of you are very interested in Gold/Silver, but you need to understand the dynamics of price, expectation, and the unwinding of risk.
The current move higher puts Gold/Silver into new Fibonacci Bullish Trending. This is what we've all been waiting for.
But, the move upward from these levels is going to be staggered/legged by bullish and bearish price waves - just like price always advances or declines.
The peak for this current move is very near the current highs ($1780).
I'm here to tell you I expect Gold to retrace to levels near $1705~1709 where it will establish a base for the next advancing price trend (targeting $1920~1935).
Get ready. Everything I've been sharing with you over the past 2+ years related to broad market cycles is taking place.
The US Fed has inadvertently trapped foreign markets and speculative cryptos in a blackhole that may pull many into oblivion. I believe this inadvertent move will result in a "new normal" that may reflect a massive debt destruction phase.
Right now, it is too early to tell how this will all play out. But I do believe Gold/Silver are the global base of REAL VALUE going forward (as they have always been).
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FTX = South Seas Trading Company 2022Could it be the great Crypto experiment of the past 8+ years is nothing more than a Vapor-Ware experiment to exploit the greed from their wealth?
Remember the 1700s South Seas Trading Company? Remember the story of "great riches" to be had by exploiting the spice trade in the South Seas?
Thousands of people piled into these shares after incredible stories of great riches to be had for the taking.
The "greater fool" theory continued to play out - even after information came forward to show the South Seas Company was falsely stating revenues/operations.
Eventually, it collapsed (along with dozens of similar scams).
Are we seeing the same thing happen in the Crypto space in 2022?
BTCUSD: Going full 2018 collapse? Is below 10k next?The latest FTX - Binance news are hitting the crypto market very hard since yesterday and the price was aggressively rejected on the 3D MA50. This will not be the most popular analysis among crypto investors but this has started to look a lot like the final stage of the 2018 Bear Cycle where after failure to break above the 3D MA50, the price broke below the June - October Triangle and collapsed almost another 50% to the 1.186 Fibonacci extension.
The similarities are astonishing as again in 2022 we are having a June - October Triangle, which just broke to the downside yesterday. A 47.50% drop from the June bottom would be $9400, while the 1.186 Fibonacci extension is at 8300. The RSI breaking its rising support (Higher Lows) on both occassions, confirms the breakdown.
Hard to believe but a new Low within the 8300 - 9400 zone is technically justified. Do you have an argument against it? Let's make a constructive discussion in the comments down below!
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The overall market capitalization may be renewing lows.In the chart, the maximum volumes go through the highs. We can see the honeycomb, the upside. Everything tells us about a possible renewal of the low. And then we will see the realization of the plans of MM. The sharp impulse up or "liquidate" all those who want to buy.
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Simple RSI/FIB Price System - BITCOIN BULLISHI've taught this system to hundreds of people over the past few years. It is a simple HIGHER HIGH/LOWER LOW system based on RSI 60/40. It is great for making decisions about longer-term trending and you can apply short-term technical analysis tools to 4 hour or other intervals to catch shorter-term trends.
BITCOIN is BULLISH using this system.
In fact, I would not be surprised to see $29k to $32k before the end of 2022.
The BASE/BOTTOM appears to be already in place and now we are simply waiting for some of that Christmas Rally momentum to push BITCOIN higher.
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CORZ - the patient is not well at all.
One of Core Scientific's biggest miners is facing bankruptcy - the company has no way to meet its financial obligations.
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DXY- Beariish Movement - BARR TOP chart patternGood example of a bump-and-run reversal. Prices move up along the
trend line in the lead-in phase, jump up during the bump phase,in this example with a second bump maybe, then crash down
through the trend line during the downhill run. could be new rallye starting for crypto
Bitcoin will rally as the 2022 Christmas Rally Takes StartsGet ready. Bitcoin will follow Tech/NQ as the Reversion Rally takes place over the next 4+ months (probably lasting well into Q1:2023).
I expect Bitcoin to rally to above $29k - possibly reaching as high as $35k.
My research suggests the US/Foreign markets are about to enter a Reversion Phase (rally trend) after nearly 12+ months of global/US selling pressure. Bitcoin should follow the Tech/NQ Sector higher over the next few months.
We should be looking for confirmation of this bottom/base over the next 4+ weeks. We need to see recent lows hold up and a moderate rally take place before November 12th.
This could be a decent rally for the US/NQ/Foreign markets if the US Dollar slides sideways/downward.
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