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COINBASE Ahead of an enormous bullish break-out.In recent times, we have focused on Coinbase's (COIN) long-term potential on higher time-frames (1W) like the one below (September 09) where we gave a great buy signal on the absolute bottom of the 2-year Channel Up: On today's analysis we look into the 1D time-frame as Coinbase is about to test its longest 2024 Resistance, the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the March 25 2024 High. With added bullish pressure by the 1D MACD Bullish Cross formed 2 days ago, if this Lower Highs trend-line breaks, we can technically have a very aggressive rally. The September 06 bottom can be seen as the start of the Head of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which has a standard Target on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. That is just above $340. As a result, if the Lower Highs trend-line breaks, you can take additional buys to target $340. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TradingShot
1
COINBASE Enormous upside from this point. $360 minimum Target.Coinbase (COIN) has staged a strong bullish turnaround since our last analysis (September 09, see chart below) and it appears that we caught the perfect bottom buy: The stock has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the first week of January 2023 (22 months). Within this time span, it has seen 4 corrections with the latter being the longest as we haven't seen a new High since the week of March 25 2024. The current correction is almost the same (-48.50%) as the January - April 2023 (-47.15%), while the other two have been around -39%. The key for now is to close a 1W candle above both the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (red trend-line). That will be the last confirmation for this Bullish Leg. This on its own is a very pessimistic development, with the presence of only the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) remaining to offer support long-term. Now as for the upside, the minimum % rise of a Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +146.82% (two times). As a result, as long as the 1W RSI closes this week above its MA trend-line (yellow), a bullish signal that emerged on all previous 4 bottoms of the Channel, we can expect the new Bullish Leg to rise on a minimum +146.82% from its bottom, which gives us a $360.00 Target. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TradingShot
6
COINBASE at the bottom of the 20month Channel. Will it go lower?Coinbase (COIN) has been trading within a long-term Channel Up since the first week of January 2023 (almost 20 months). Within this time span, it has seen 4 corrections with the latter being the longest as we haven't seen a new High since the week of March 25 2024. Last Friday saw the week close on the strongest red 1W candle (-20%) since the 2022 Bear Cycle, as it failed to rebound on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). This on its own is a very pessimistic development, with the presence of only the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) remaining to offer support long-term. However, this Friday closing made an exact Higher Low at the bottom of the Channel Up, something we hadn't seen since the June 05 2023 1W candle. That was the candle that completed the longest (until the current one) correction on Coinbase. Both Bearish Legs have similar declines (-47% then and -48% now). The minimum % rise of a Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +146.82% (two times). As a result, as long as we close this week inside the Channel Up and ideally the 1W RSI remains above the 30.00 oversold barrier, we can expect a long-term bullish reversal on COIN with the start of the Channel's new Bullish Leg, with a minimum expectation being at $360.00 (+146.82% rally). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TradingShot
COINBASE rebounded on its 1W MA50. Next target = $390Coinbase (COIN) hit (and even broke) last week its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in more than 1 year (since the week of June 26 2023) and posted an incredibly bullish reaction by almost recovering all of the weekly losses. At the same time, that drop almost touched the bottom of the 1.5 year Channel Up that started after the 2022 market bottom. All similar bottoms registered at least +146.82% rallies on the Bullish Legs that followed, so we expect the stock to have a minimum $390 Target, which will also reach the 0.786 Fibonacci Channel level, that is always hit during such rallies. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TradingShot
1
Marathon (MARA) - Breakout and Upward MomentumMarathon Digital Holdings has been trading sideways for an extended period after our last analysis. The stock formed an equal high, dipped again, but consistently held around the High Volume Node Edge Point at approximately $20. Following the latest retest of the $20 level, MARA has broken out upwards, leaving a breakout gap behind. Today's 19% increase indicates strong upward momentum. Key observations include the breakout gap, which may be retested. This retest could provide a good entry point if the price holds above the gap. The $20 level has proven to be a strong support area, consistently holding the price during the sideways movement. The recent strong movement and potential bottom formation at $14.23 indicate a possible end to the downward trend. A push above the $25 level would provide stronger confirmation of the bullish trend and indicate a clear breakout from the previous range.
NASDAQ:MARALong
by freeguy_by_wmc
COINBASE targeting $470 after this accumulation is over.Coinbase Global (COIN) has been consolidating around its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since late May. The long-term trend remains bullish (since the January 2023 bottom) and is best illustrated by the use of the Fibonacci Channel. Right now the price is exactly on its middle (0.5 Fib level). The stock is no stranger to consolidations like this as within this Channel Up pattern, it has seen another 3 similar Accumulation Phases (green arcs). The minimum rise following such a phase has been +146.82% and it has so far happened twice. The last Bullish Leg is such an example. Technically, the current Accumulation Phase resembles more the one that ended in October 2023. The next time we close a 1W candle above the 1D MA50, COIN will most likely confirm the start of the new Bullish Leg. If we assume it will again rise by the 'minimum' +146.82% rate from May's Low, then expect a direct hit this time at the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. Our Target is $470.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TradingShot
4
MICROSTRATEGY Bottom on Inverse Head and Shoulders. Eyeing $2000MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) is about to complete the Right Shoulder of an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IH&S) pattern, which is a bottom formation technically. The Head was formed on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), a long-term Support for the stock, while the price is now testing the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as Resistance. We saw this exact same behaviour on MSTR's previous bottom (May 01) and right when it broke above the 4H MA50, it peaked marginally above the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. As a result, we expect a similar development and our Target is $2000. Notice also that right when the price was testing the 4H MA50 last time, the 1D MACD formed a Bullish Cross, which is what it is currently doing. Strong similarities everywhere. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by TradingShot
1
COINBASE Short-term Channel Up targeting $284Coinbase (COIN) has been trading within a short-term Channel Up (blue) ever since the bottom on the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) and later turned the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) into a Support too. Yesterday the first 4H MA50/ 1D MA50 Bullish Cross was formed since February 29. As you can see this is approximately the same pattern that was followed after the February 09 bottom on the 4H MA200 and its first Target was the Resistance coming of the previous High. This short-term Channel Up leads straight to that Resistance as part of its next Higher High, so our short-term Target is $284.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COINLong
by TradingShot
3
COINBASE around the 1D MA50 but the MA100 more likely to supportCoinbase Global (COIN) rose as high as our last target (March 05, see chart below) and has been pulling back since: The best way to view this short-term correction is on the diverging Channel Up (blue) which started on the October 27 2023 bottom. As with the longer term Channel Up, it consolidates considerably below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), with the last (February 05 2024) Low finding support just above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line). As a result we expect a Higher Low for the diverging Channel Up close to 185.00, before start seeing the new Bullish Leg. In addition, we need to see the 1D RSI touching its 2-year Support Zone, which usually tends to touch it twice during an Accumulation Phase. The price also tends to Double Bottom. This means that there will be time most likely (always account for how strongly the Bitcoin Halving might do to the market) to identify the new bottom and most optimal buy entry based on the conditions above. We are willing to buy there for the Bullish Leg that will follow and target $370.00, which is the top of the long-term Fibonacci Channel. Note that in case of a break-out, the price can even go as high as the 2.0 (blue) Fibonacci extension ($440.00), which is around the Fib level that the last two Higher Highs where priced. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COIN
by TradingShot
CLSK set up for a SHORT in a parallel channelCLSK on a 120 minute chart is in a gradually falling parallel channel. At this time price has topped at the channel's resistance trendline. The RSI has bearish divergence while the predictive algorithm shows a forecast of a trend down this upcoming week. I will short trade CLSK here with a stop loss at 20.6 above the channel and target of 14.75 near to the bottom of the channel. The stop loss of 1.2 compares well with a target about 4.5 downside yielding approximately 3.5 as a risk ratio.
NASDAQ:CLSKShort
by AwesomeAvani
RIOT retraced and could reverse but BTC is falling SHORTOn the 15-minute chart- RIOT uptrended and then retraced. It is now supported by the standard Fibonacci retracement zone and UNDER the intermediate term mean anchored VWAP. On the RSI indicator, the signals are UNDER the 50 level another suggestion of direction being forecasted. In the meanwhile BTCUSD is trending down. while RIOT is not trading. I will watch RIOT after the open on Monday fully expecting it will fall into the lower VWAP bands but there could be a surprise if BTCUSD reverses over the weekend.
NASDAQ:RIOT
by AwesomeAvani
COINBASE: Forming a Top. Selling gains momentum.Coinbase is on a bullish 1D technical outlook (RSI = 64.977, MACD = 22.160, ADX = 33.325) but at the top of the Channel Up. The 1D RSI Bearish Divergence on LH suggests that a similar top is close to getting formed (or already has) like on December 28th 2023. All major corrections since 2023 have been at a -39% minimum and reached always the 0.5 Fibonacci from the bottom. Consequently, we are now bearish on COIN, targeting the 0.5 Fib (TP = 185.00) where we will turn bullish again aiming for the Channel's top (TP = 350). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
NASDAQ:COINLong
by InvestingScope
RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - WULF EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - Stocks with breakout potential. In this edition, we'll be looking at NASDAQ:WULF ... I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility. If price can hold above $2.05 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked. My key upside targets include: - $2.86 (Conservative) - $3.80 (Medium) - $4.84 (Aggressive) If however price falls below $1.25 ... Bearish risk potential may be unlocked. (My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart) Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future. If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below. Mr RM | Risk Mastery Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
NASDAQ:WULFLong
by RiskMasteryOfficial
RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - RIOT EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - Stocks with breakout potential. In this edition, we'll be looking at NASDAQ:RIOT ... I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility. If price can hold above $14.44 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked. My key upside targets include: - $18.29 (Conservative) - $24.61 (Medium) - $29.05 (Aggressive) If however price falls below $11.54 ... Bearish risk potential may be unlocked. (My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart) Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future. If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below. Mr RM | Risk Mastery Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by RiskMasteryOfficial
1
RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - FFG EditionWelcome to RiskMastery's Breakout Stocks - Stocks with breakout potential. In this edition, we'll be looking at ASX:FFG ... I believe this code is at a point of potential volatility. If price can hold above $0.035 ... Bullish potential may be unlocked. My key upside targets include: - $0.046 (Conservative) - $0.059 (Medium) - $0.081 (Aggressive) If however price falls below $0.022 ... Bearish risk potential may be unlocked. (My key risk targets - C, M,& A - are as noted on the chart) Enjoy, and I look forward to being of further service into the future. If you'd like to connect, feel free to reach out and comment below. Mr RM | Risk Mastery Disclaimer: This post is intended for educational purposes only - Publicly available RiskMastery information & content is not intended to be financial advice in any shape or form. Please do your own research and seek advice from a licensed professional before acting on any of the information contained within this post. This post is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell or hold any positions in any financial instrument. All demonstrated trades are merely incidental to the educational training RiskMastery aims to provide. You are solely responsible for your own investment and trading decisions, of which should be made only according to your own opinion, knowledge and experience. You should not rely on any of the information contained on this site or contained in any RiskMastery material on any website or platform. You assume the sole risk of any trade or investment you elect to make. RiskMastery and affiliates shall not be liable to you for any monetary losses or any other damages incurred directly or indirectly, from your use, reliance or reference of RiskMastery materials, content and educational information. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation - We look forward to working with you into the future to navigate the fine line of trading and investment success.
ASX:FFGLong
by RiskMasteryOfficial
$CGAC Bitcoin Mining Company with 722 Miners Increasing to 1,500Bitcoin is on the move once again and cracked past $50,000 today a pivotal mental barricade that hasn't been broken in several years since the bear market started and ended and the bull market began. Bitcoin Stocks that mine usually do the best during the crypto bull cycle and the best and lowest of them all at the moment is OTC:CGAC Currently the company is in the process of increasing their miners from 722 to 1,500 in the short term and will also be doing a CUSIP and Name Change in the coming weeks to accommodate its business direction. There is sufficient gains to be made here as it did do .05 last time around, and this time, with sufficient interest in the Crypto market we could very well see .10+ I am very bullish on this one.
OTC:CGACLong
by StockGuild
HUT - a crypto-mining stock setting up for a long tradeHUT is a volatile small cap in the crypto sector. It has earnings in five weeks and so has plenty of time for a run to the report. On the daily chart, it finds itself in a descending falling more or less parallel channel and testing the lower support trendline of that channel. The last trend down took about six weeks. A Fibonacci 50% retracement would take price to 12 while the top of the channel resistance which is falling would be in the zone of 14. Accordingly, a long trade could be potentially in the range of 55-100% or so over two months or less. The stop loss set below support at 5.3 would provide for a good reward-to-risk ratio. For those who follow fundamentals and catalysts, HUT has a new CEO who is a turnaround specialist. Plan- I will watch to see the short time frame RSI in green cross over the 50 level. I will then zoom into a 60-120 minute time frame and look for an entry point with narrow-range candles also going red to green and then take a long trade with those two targets. There are no options for this stock as far as I can tell.
NASDAQ:HUTLong
by AwesomeAvani
COINBASE Has it found a bottom? Caution if it breaks this level.Last time we looked into Coinbase (COIN), we set a long-term target of $150 (November 14 2023, see chart below) that was easily surpassed: At the moment the stock is on a short-term pull-back following the rejection near the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). It is approaching a dangerous level, the 0.5 Fibonacci of the Channel Up, which is its middle but most of all the 116.50 level which is the former Resistance level (two Highs on August 04 2022 and on July 14 2023) that could now turn into Support. If it holds, we can expect a rebound targeting $285, which would be a +146.82% rise, above the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the Channel Up. If it closes a 1D candle below it though, we expect the price to seek the maximum % decline it has had within this pattern, -47.15%, which would bring the stock around $100 and would be technical test of the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and an excellent long-term buy entry, which is what took place on the October 27 2023 bottom. In that case a +146.82% rise would be $245.00 and that would be our Target. Note that at any given price, if the 1D RSI hits the 1-year Support Zone, it will be a solid buy entry regardless. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
NASDAQ:COIN
by TradingShot
7
RIOT Breakout! 33% Gain potential RIOT is basically a crypto mining company. Bitcoin right now is breaking to highest levels since 2022. RIOT's balance sheet is positive with more assets than debt. RIOT recently spent 290 million USD on purchasing new and advanced bitcoin mining rigs as well as a contract to buy a lot more of those in the future with MICROBT. Technicals show breakout after breakout, with a fresh breakout recently above 13.80. Stop loss is placed below second horizontal support around 12.50. Take profits are allocated around key resistance levels on the way up. Indicators show bullish momentum with plenty more fuel to go. This is a potential swing trade. Best of luck and feel free to ask questions!
NASDAQ:RIOTLong
by Exactus
2
💾 MicroStrategy Has More To Give!In the past, now many years ago, we would have the "wait for the confirmation" crowd which turned into "wait for the earnings"...

 MicroStrategy (MSTR) is trading below EMA50 weekly. Is this a bearish or bullish signal? Should we "wait for confirmation"? Meaning, wait for it to break and close above EMA50 before taking action! In a way yes, this can be done and there are many different ways to approach a trade, a market... Different trading systems and strategies, so it isn't a bad thing but, with a wider perspective, with so many tools, with so many charts, confirmation can be gotten for other places. The markets evolve and we have to also evolve and adapt. Each year, each cycle it becomes harder and harder, the bots become smarter and the risk increases... Anyway, knowing what we know and seeing the other charts/pairs/stocks already going ahead... The market is interrelated/linked/connected, so we know this chart will do the same. The confirmation already happened with the strong RSI and the close above EMA10. We can always wait for the next confirmation... Or we can buy at the bottom (see 'Related ideas') and ride up the full bullish wave. Check the "first (main target - high probability)" on the chart. Instead of waiting for confirmation, you can use a tight stop-loss. Namaste.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by AlanSantana
1
Long Coinbase, Short BTC On Sell-The-News TriggerWhen traditional markets sense optimism, crypto markets go straight to the moon. Bitcoin (“BTC”) has been on a tear this year supported by hopes of spot BTC ETF launch, rising regulatory clarity, and monetary policy easing. When BTC sentiment turns bullish, it leads to sharp outperformance in digital asset-linked stocks as noted previously. Coinbase is a top ranking performer. The crypto exchange stock is up a whopping 387% YTD outperforming BTC by almost 2.5x. Outperformance during rallies is usually followed by sharper corrections during downturns. Buy the rumour and sell the news is common. In fact, it is more pronounced in crypto markets. BTC trading at record prices for the year combined with bullish catalysts materializing soon, the risk of drawdown in prices remains high. Digital asset linked stocks are likely to correct alongside BTC. But Coinbase is uniquely positioned to remain resilient. This paper posits a hypothetical trade set up with a long position in Coinbase and short position in BTC to position well into potential pull back in prices in the new year. COINBASE’S “REGULATIONS FIRST” APPROACH HELPS BUT RISKS REMAIN Coinbase adopts the strategy of regulation-focused expansion, giving it an upper hand in the otherwise largely unregulated digital asset industry. That said, Coinbase faces its own raft of regulatory headwinds. In June 2023, the SEC sued Coinbase for operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. Later in August, Coinbase filed a motion to dismiss the case on the basis that the cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase do not qualify as securities. Coinbase’s staking platform is another concern. Legal outcome remains uncertain. Regulatory overhang persists over Coinbase. COINBASE HAS GAINED MARKET SHARE FROM CRISIS AT OTHER EXCHANGES Coinbase has been holding up well when competing crypto exchanges have suffered collapse or punitive record regulatory fines. Consequently, it has been successful in swaying traders to its platform. News of Coinbase’s approval as a Virtual Asset Services Provider is just one of many global regulatory licenses the company has sought. FTX collapse, regulatory action against Binance, and the shuttering of smaller exchanges like Bittrex has benefited Coinbase. It has gained BTC trading volume market share compared to last year (13.7% in 2023 v/s 5.7% in 2022), although it remains lower than its market share (18.1%) during the 2021 rally. While Coinbase has taken volume share from Binance, both these crypto exchanges have lost share on BTC derivatives trading to CME Group. It is likely that Coinbase would lose out on some of the BTC trading volume to spot ETFs. COINBASE IS THE CUSTODIAN FOR MOST OF THE PROPOSED SPOT BTC ETFs While Coinbase may lose out on some of the trading volumes, it stands to benefit from the increased institutionalization of BTC. The company has positioned itself to benefit from the institutional market as well. Coinbase Custody and Coinbase Prime are two of its offerings that stand to gain from spot ETF approval. In Q3 2023, Coinbase derived 46% of its net revenue from transaction commissions (comprising of 95% from retail and 5% from institutions) and 54% from subscription and services revenue. This is a stark shift from Q3 2022 when 63% of its revenues came from transaction commissions. The shift towards services enables resilient growth from sustainable institutional sources. Stablecoin revenue is the primary driver of services revenue for Coinbase. It has increased by 125% YoY. Stablecoin revenues represents earnings from stablecoin reserves linked to its partnership with Circle (USDC issuer). While stablecoin revenues have driven growth in a high interest rate environment, Coinbase’s custodial revenue has lagged. Custodial income is up 9% YoY but 7% lower QoQ. Spot BTC approval with Coinbase as the custodian will help drive greater revenue resilience. The following ETF’s which are up for approval imminently use Coinbase as their custody provider: Source: Coindesk Important to note that these agreements are not yet finalized and are subject to change. In fact, one of the SEC’s key concerns over approval has been the centralization of custody services with Coinbase. This recently caused Blackrock to amend the role of Coinbase in the proposed iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The goal of the amendments is to integrate refinements and improve the likelihood that the application is accepted by the SEC. BITCOIN RALLY HAS OVERREACHED A long position in BTC may be hard to justify given the massive price appreciation through 2023. BTC is up a mammoth 154%. Prices face risk of a sharp drawdown from profit taking. Long-Term BTC holders have been accumulating their holdings all year. Many of these holders are now in profit. Nearly 90% of the total supply of BTC is in profit as per Glassnode. While long-term holders have remained committed all year, realising these gains before a sell-the-news trigger will eventually lead to price pullback. Source: Glassnode THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFERENT FOR COINBASE Coinbase performed poorly during the last Crypto drawdown. Back then, Coinbase was in dire straits. Losses looked precarious. Valuations were still roaring from its heady IPO levels. Now, both these metrics provide a reasonable entry. Coinbase stock is still 50% lower compared to its level in Nov 2021 when BTC prices started collapsing. HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP The hype in the run up to the approval of Spot BTC ETF is palpable. Downside risk prevails across BTC and Coinbase. If buy-the-rumour & sell-the-news plays out, Coinbase is expected to remain resilient (relative to BTC) given larger market share and revenue diversification. Higher institutional income will also help bolster revenues along with increased trading volumes typically experienced during market shocks. Investors can position to benefit from Coinbase’s relative resilience by opting for a long position in its shares hedged by a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January (MBTF2024). Each MBT contract provides exposure to 0.1 BTC (~USD 4,278). This requires 25 shares of Coinbase to balance the notional values on both legs. The hypothetical trade set up would involve: • Entry: 0.404% (USD 173.2 divided by USD 42,780) • Target: 0.480% • Stop Loss: 0.365% • Profit at Target: USD 670 • Loss at Stop: USD 467 • Reward/Risk: 1.43x Note: As of close of markets on 26th December 2023; Coinbase shares: USD 173.2 and MBTF2024: USD 42,780 MARKET DATA CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:COINLong
by mintdotfinance
41