Long Coinbase, Short BTC On Sell-The-News TriggerWhen traditional markets sense optimism, crypto markets go straight to the moon. Bitcoin (“BTC”) has been on a tear this year supported by hopes of spot BTC ETF launch, rising regulatory clarity, and monetary policy easing. When BTC sentiment turns bullish, it leads to sharp outperformance in digital asset-linked stocks as noted previously.
Coinbase is a top ranking performer. The crypto exchange stock is up a whopping 387% YTD outperforming BTC by almost 2.5x.
Outperformance during rallies is usually followed by sharper corrections during downturns. Buy the rumour and sell the news is common. In fact, it is more pronounced in crypto markets.
BTC trading at record prices for the year combined with bullish catalysts materializing soon, the risk of drawdown in prices remains high.
Digital asset linked stocks are likely to correct alongside BTC. But Coinbase is uniquely positioned to remain resilient. This paper posits a hypothetical trade set up with a long position in Coinbase and short position in BTC to position well into potential pull back in prices in the new year.
COINBASE’S “REGULATIONS FIRST” APPROACH HELPS BUT RISKS REMAIN
Coinbase adopts the strategy of regulation-focused expansion, giving it an upper hand in the otherwise largely unregulated digital asset industry.
That said, Coinbase faces its own raft of regulatory headwinds. In June 2023, the SEC sued Coinbase for operating as an Unregistered Securities Exchange, Broker, and Clearing Agency. Later in August, Coinbase filed a motion to dismiss the case on the basis that the cryptocurrencies listed on Coinbase do not qualify as securities.
Coinbase’s staking platform is another concern. Legal outcome remains uncertain. Regulatory overhang persists over Coinbase.
COINBASE HAS GAINED MARKET SHARE FROM CRISIS AT OTHER EXCHANGES
Coinbase has been holding up well when competing crypto exchanges have suffered collapse or punitive record regulatory fines. Consequently, it has been successful in swaying traders to its platform. News of Coinbase’s approval as a Virtual Asset Services Provider is just one of many global regulatory licenses the company has sought.
FTX collapse, regulatory action against Binance, and the shuttering of smaller exchanges like Bittrex has benefited Coinbase. It has gained BTC trading volume market share compared to last year (13.7% in 2023 v/s 5.7% in 2022), although it remains lower than its market share (18.1%) during the 2021 rally.
While Coinbase has taken volume share from Binance, both these crypto exchanges have lost share on BTC derivatives trading to CME Group. It is likely that Coinbase would lose out on some of the BTC trading volume to spot ETFs.
COINBASE IS THE CUSTODIAN FOR MOST OF THE PROPOSED SPOT BTC ETFs
While Coinbase may lose out on some of the trading volumes, it stands to benefit from the increased institutionalization of BTC.
The company has positioned itself to benefit from the institutional market as well. Coinbase Custody and Coinbase Prime are two of its offerings that stand to gain from spot ETF approval.
In Q3 2023, Coinbase derived 46% of its net revenue from transaction commissions (comprising of 95% from retail and 5% from institutions) and 54% from subscription and services revenue. This is a stark shift from Q3 2022 when 63% of its revenues came from transaction commissions. The shift towards services enables resilient growth from sustainable institutional sources.
Stablecoin revenue is the primary driver of services revenue for Coinbase. It has increased by 125% YoY. Stablecoin revenues represents earnings from stablecoin reserves linked to its partnership with Circle (USDC issuer).
While stablecoin revenues have driven growth in a high interest rate environment, Coinbase’s custodial revenue has lagged. Custodial income is up 9% YoY but 7% lower QoQ. Spot BTC approval with Coinbase as the custodian will help drive greater revenue resilience.
The following ETF’s which are up for approval imminently use Coinbase as their custody provider:
Source: Coindesk
Important to note that these agreements are not yet finalized and are subject to change. In fact, one of the SEC’s key concerns over approval has been the centralization of custody services with Coinbase. This recently caused Blackrock to amend the role of Coinbase in the proposed iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF. The goal of the amendments is to integrate refinements and improve the likelihood that the application is accepted by the SEC.
BITCOIN RALLY HAS OVERREACHED
A long position in BTC may be hard to justify given the massive price appreciation through 2023. BTC is up a mammoth 154%. Prices face risk of a sharp drawdown from profit taking.
Long-Term BTC holders have been accumulating their holdings all year. Many of these holders are now in profit. Nearly 90% of the total supply of BTC is in profit as per Glassnode.
While long-term holders have remained committed all year, realising these gains before a sell-the-news trigger will eventually lead to price pullback.
Source: Glassnode
THIS TIME, IT IS DIFFERENT FOR COINBASE
Coinbase performed poorly during the last Crypto drawdown. Back then, Coinbase was in dire straits. Losses looked precarious. Valuations were still roaring from its heady IPO levels. Now, both these metrics provide a reasonable entry.
Coinbase stock is still 50% lower compared to its level in Nov 2021 when BTC prices started collapsing.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
The hype in the run up to the approval of Spot BTC ETF is palpable. Downside risk prevails across BTC and Coinbase.
If buy-the-rumour & sell-the-news plays out, Coinbase is expected to remain resilient (relative to BTC) given larger market share and revenue diversification. Higher institutional income will also help bolster revenues along with increased trading volumes typically experienced during market shocks.
Investors can position to benefit from Coinbase’s relative resilience by opting for a long position in its shares hedged by a short position in CME Micro Bitcoin Futures expiring in January (MBTF2024). Each MBT contract provides exposure to 0.1 BTC (~USD 4,278). This requires 25 shares of Coinbase to balance the notional values on both legs.
The hypothetical trade set up would involve:
• Entry: 0.404% (USD 173.2 divided by USD 42,780)
• Target: 0.480%
• Stop Loss: 0.365%
• Profit at Target: USD 670
• Loss at Stop: USD 467
• Reward/Risk: 1.43x
Note: As of close of markets on 26th December 2023; Coinbase shares: USD 173.2 and MBTF2024: USD 42,780
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
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Cryptostocks
Coinbase Textbook Bottoming Pattern Found Hi Guys! This is a Technical Analysis of Coinbase (COIN) on the 1 week timeframe.
As you can see we have drawn out a Inverse Head & Shoulder Pattern forming in COIN.
This is a textbook pattern as it follows to the t the necessary criteria both in price action and volume.
Stages of the Price Action
Downtrend to form Left Shoulder
The rally from Left Shoulder does not breach the Neckline
Downtrend from peak of rally to form Head
The rally from the Head also does not breach the Neckline
Downtrend from Peak of rally to form Right Shoulder
The rally from the Right Shoulder breaches the Neckline
A Return move from the breakout back to Neckline -> This stage we are currently playing out
Volume Signs of Textbook Inverse Head & Shoulder
1. Left Shoulder has taller volume bar (higher volume) than Head Volume
2. Lighter volume or shorter bars seen for Head than Left Shoulder
3. The rally from Head to Right Shoulder has increasing volume that exceeds volume of the rally from left shoulder to neckline
4. DOwntrend to Right Shoulder -> shows a declining volume bar height / declining volume
5. Sharp Spike on Volume during rally from Right Shoulder to Neckline breakout
6. Declining Volume during current move, the Return Move
Thoughts:
Both times we rallied from the shoulders we reached a Resistance zone and got rejected.
I believe we are currently in the "Return Move" to test the Neckline as Support
-> The areas i am looking is:
1. 0.5 FIB Level, this is also where the 21 EMA converges so a Support zone to watch
This area is important because it is the "Golden Zone" for FIB, as well as where the 21 EMA is at. This makes this area a place to observe for potential bounce. Though i believe this to be short lived.
2. Testing Support on the NECKLINE SUPPORT line
3. This one is least likely but nevertheless still possible, the 0.382 FIB Level, a potential scenario being a WICK down from testing support on Neckline
After testing these levels i believe that Coinbase will start its Bull run where it has tremendous growth in market cap
A first target would be breaching the Resistance zone and confirming it as Support.
Take a look for yourself. Experts let me know what yall think!
Stay tuned for more updates on COIN in the near future.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
HIVE long term planning NASDAQ:HIVE :: #usstock #dyor #nfa
Note 📌 it's ETHERIUM mining ⛏️ company
Holding #crypto stocks is high risk and may cause lose 100% ur liquid 💰
Phase 1 :: BUY ACCUMULATION -> $2.2-2.6
Phase 2 :: BUY ACCUMULATION -> $0.5-0.7
i don't think 💬 it will reach 2nd phase 📍
If that happens sign 🛑 no new high 📌
Will return to ur 1st phase 📍 later I check ✅ i will update you target 🎯
But split 🪓 accumulation 40-60% liquid 💰
Sell :: $15-40-100-130 ( phase 1 )
#principaltrade :: $15-18
Phase 2 exit are $2-3 but i will update later
so try to catch 🫴 update 📌 everytime ⏰
Be in updated to post 😸 any questions ☺️ on this 📌 ask comment
Even more if u want just contact me personally 👍
BITSTAMP:ETHUSD NASDAQ:HIVE BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
Coinbase in a correction, the levels to look atHi guys! This is a technical analysis on Coinbase (COIN) on the 1 Week timeframe.
On the week of July 10th, we ATTEMPTED to try and break through the $116 ish level, which is the level where our GREEN rectangle Resistance zone begins.
BUT got rejected and have been in a DECLINE for about 4 weeks including this week.
Note: This weeks candle has not yet closed and we have to wait till end of week.
Notice the 2 RED circles, highlighting 2 seperate times where we tested the MAJOR RESISTANCE ZONE.
-> This can very well be a DOUBLE TOP.
-> Which can support a continuation of the downside action.
We are currently TESTING SUPPORT at the upper border of my BLACK rectangle zone
This coincides with the 0.618 FIB level or the $84.07 level.
Since we havent closed yet, watch how we react here -> with a potential of price bouncing to the upside.
If we end up below, and in the coming weeks CONFIRM below:
Our next level will be the 0.5 FIB Level, which is at 73.99
Here the 21 EMA also converges at this point
This could be a STRONG SUPPORT zone due to the confluence of 2 SUPPORT levels.
This could then be a BUY ZONE, area to Scale in.
We can also look to the 0.382 FIB level or $63.91
This level converges with the RESISTANCE Turned SUPPORT line from the price top.
This is another level, provided the 0.5 FIB level fails to hold -> WHere you can add BUY ORDERS
STOCH RSI indicator -> Had a BEARISH Cross and we are currently below the 80 level. If we continue down, we can reach and stay below the 20 level for some time. This normally leads to PRICE DECLINES.
Wave trend oscillator -> We have reached at area where the GREEN line is starting to show curvature to the downside. If it continues this pattern, itll add to the probability of price DECLINES.
Finally the RSI - Watch how the Orange line interacts with Black line, if Orange crosses below -> it normally indicates that we are in a price decline.
"COINCLUSION" (See what i did there, lol):
The Week of July 10, we attempted to test resistance to enter the GREEN REsistance zone, to only meet with REJECTION. This had lead to a correction in COIN, moving us to test the 0.618 FIB level. The area which converges with our Upper border of Black Rectangle/ Resistance turned Support. This area can be a place where we could bounce in price to try and reclaim the 0.786 FIB level. But if we cant HOLD 0.618, our next level will be 0.5 FIB level. This area due it being a strong support zone, can be an ENTRY point for potential trades or scaling in/ DCA'ing. Worst case is below that level at the 0.382 FIB level, which can also be a 2nd BUY ZONE. We would like to be ABOVE the 21 EMA though, to maintain the Bullish case. Always make sure to wait for confirmation before placing BUY orders.
For example: if we confirm SUPPORT above 0.618, we can have a potential bounce back to the 0.786 FIB level. So you wouldn't short but Long.
Stay tuned for more updates on COIN in the near future.
Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. Hope it helped keep you informed. Please do support my ideas by boosting, following me and commenting. Thanks again.
If you have any questions, do reach out. Thank you again.
DISCLAIMER: This is not financial advice, i am not a financial advisor. The thoughts expressed in the posts are my opinion and for educational purposes. Do not use my ideas for the basis of your trading strategy, make sure to work out your own strategy and when trading always spend majority of your time on risk management strategy.
COINBASE: Will it finally cross over this potential Triple Top?Coinbase reached the top of the annual Channel Down pattern with the 1D technicals turning overbought (RSI = 75.832, MACD = 4.640, ADX = 42.237). For the RSI in particular, the last time it was higher was on February 2nd. This calls for a short term correction to at least the 1D MA200 (TP = 60.00). Even in the event of a crossing over the Channel Down, the price will still have to face the potential Triple Top of Resistance Zone 1. We will go long only after the price breaks above it and target the R2 (TP = 116.00). It has to be said that the RSI breaking above the 5 month LH trendline, is an early indication of the long term trend.
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Bullish on $CSE:BTC Blue Sky Digital Symbol: CSE:BTC
Blue sky is a prime example of a dormant stock about to bounce!
Note the illustrated section where it notes crossing the MACD and I believe an upward trend to 0.06+ in near future, possibly the next two weeks!
BTC = Buy in my opinion
Note: This is not financial advice and I am not a financial advisor! Do your own research!
Buy COIN calls before buyers rush into stock. Selling exhausted.SWING TRADE
Price opened in the "buy zone" that I had marked in my earlier chart (see linked chart and comments) and my good till cancelled call trade executed. I added calls when price was around 190.
DAILY CHART
> White lines show a zone that can be used with 30m chart for trading.
> Black lines show bullish divergence. Usually after this divergence there is another drop and then a move higher.
> Yellow rectangle shows a spike in %K which warns of a reversal, again usually after another with-trend move. My rule is for %K to move from 20 to 80 within 3 candles, and this took 4, but it was still worth noting.
> Orange line helped me decide price would not go much lower than 190 so I bought swing calls and held them through the "final drop."
30min CHART
> Purple lines show divergence that led me to buy calls on 19 Jan.
> Yellow rectangle shows my trade entry and exit on 20 Jan as price stalled around 230, white resistance line. I was still waiting for price to be in the buy zone (under 213) or break over daily downtrend line.
> Pink rectangle shows my stochastic %K warning that buying will soon increase.
> Price opened in buy zone today and kept falling. Based on high selling volume and the stochastic signal, I bought more 18Feb calls and will hold for a move back up to 220-230, maybe higher.
DIRECTIONAL VOLUME
When you look at selling volume on 30 minute chart (as with many stocks today), you see heavy selling and directional selling volume extremely high. This is a sign that sellers are finally coming out in force, which means that buyers will come in soon and stock begins a bounce.
Trading OEE Volatility! IF you haven't been using the volatility to your advantage you've been missing out. This is a great stock to trade in 0.0025-0.005 increments! So I would call in to trade and place orders at 0.0275 then enter sell at 0.03 or buy at 0.025 then sell at 0.0275. IF you have enough funds, the fee of calling to place the trade is worth it! A great little money maker!
Happy Trading!
There's a riot coming... Short Squeeze on RIOTWith a Short Interest of 26% and an active attempt to squeeze the shorts it looks like RIOT could see a volatile move upwards supported by reasonable fundamentals, Bitcoins recent price action, and technical indicators that suggest a reversal.
Setting up to break out of a descending channel/wedge.
F-Score is a 5 with some indication the books may be cooked so this likely isn't a buy & hold.
Price target & stop loss recommendation put this at a 6:1 risk to reward ratio.
Timeline is days to weeks. Watch for a position Monday morning around 10:30am.
2nd Day Testing Fib Resistance On LMFALMFA has some pretty well established levels if you look beyond that one big spike earlier this year. With the 786 fib line showing to be a strong pivot, the stock has stalled twice now, failing to hold above this level. It was strongly denied this week and looks like the follow-through momentum just isn't there to finish out the week. However, bigger picture the stock is still significantly higher than where it was in late May .
Remember what Bruce said in that first ER:
“Revenues from our community association receivables business declined as we continue to develop a digital asset technology strategy to unlock the potential of this business...We expanded our core business of buying discounted debt and collecting it through court proceedings with the Borqs transaction. We entered the Borqs transaction projecting to net $2 million and we were pleased to realize a $5.7 million return.”
Quote Source: 4 Crypto Penny Stocks to Watch Under $5 Right Now
Coinbase goes to hit $1500IPO investing idea
Coinbase, Inc. is an American cryptocurrency exchange platform that operates remote-first without an official physical headquarters.
The reference price is $250, I suppose the price will rise much higher at 1 day and later. The market cap at $250 per share is $65bln.
Why?
Let's check some fundamentals.
In 1Q2021 Coinbase reported the next estimated results:
trading volume — $335bln volume
sales — $1.8bln
income — $760mln
Also let's check all the market volume data:
Volume MA30 in 2018: minimum was at 10bln per day, maximum -- 40bln per day
Volume MA90 at 1APR21 was 300bln per day
Maximum volume MA30 in 2021 was 360bln per day
Volume MA90 at 1JAN21 was 150bln per day
On 01.01.2020 volume MA365 was at 50
On 01.01.2021 volume MA365 was at 100
So, we have 4 scenarios of valuation
1) Pessimistic — the crypto hype will end in APR2021
If the hype ends, average volume will fall to 100bln per day at the end of 2021 (like in 2018 from 40bln to 10bln). And will be the same in 2022 and later.
So, yearly sales will be at $1.8bln, yearly net income — $760mln.
Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 750mln*42 = $32bln, share price at $125.
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 1.8bnl*25 = $45bln, share price at $170.
2) Current market — the market condition will be stable
On 01.01.2022 volume MA365 can be at 200 (like x2 from 2020 to 2021)
It means:
sales — $1.8bln*4*200/360 = 4bln
income — $760mln*4/1.8= 1.7bln
Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 1.7bln*42 = $70bln, share price at $270 — almost as a reference price.
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 4bnl*25 = $120bln, share price at $385.
3) Optimistic — the crypto hype will continue
Trading volume bill be 400bln per day
sales — $8bln
income — $3.4bln
Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 3.4bln*42 = $143bln, share price at $550
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 8bnl*25 = $200bln, share price at $770.
4) TOTHEMOON scenario
trading volume will twice every quarter in 2021.
We have 300+600+900+1200/4 = 750bln per day
sales — $8bln*750/400 = 15
income — $6.4bln
Using SPY P/E multiplier (42), we have market cap at 6.4bln*42 = $270bln, share price at $1000
Using TSLA P/S multiplier (25), we have market cap at 15bnl*25 = $375bln, share price at $1500.
So, a pessimistic scenario says it is better to wait for $125 and invest there.
In optimistic scenario says it is better to send MOO today, and set 3 targets:
650
1000
1500
So do I :)
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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DIGI - Just raised $13.2M at .35. Trading at big discount!DIGI is another crypto play that is caught in BTC/markets headwinds and is offering a very attractive entry below just closed institutional financing.
DigiMax Announces Closing of CAD$13.2 Million Private Placement with Institutional Investors to Fund Future Expansion
TORONTO, ON / ACCESSWIRE / March 19, 2021 / DigiCrypts Blockchain Solutions Inc. o/a DIGIMAX GLOBAL SOLUTIONS (the "Company" or "DigiMax") (CSE:DIGI) is pleased to announce that it has closed its previously announced private placement of equity securities (the "Offering"). The Offering was for gross proceeds of approximately CAD$13.2 million and consisted of the sale of 37,793,715 common shares, along with warrants to purchase an aggregate of up to 37,793,715 common shares, at a purchase price of CAD$0.35 per common share and associated warrant. The warrants have an exercise price of CAD$0.365 per common share and exercise period of three and one-half years (on or before September 17, 2024).
The net proceeds of the private placement will be used by the Company for working capital and general corporate purposes and may be used to fund strategic partnerships that may include an acquisition of all or part of existing companies operating in similar artificial intelligence, or blockchain/crypto spaces. However, no agreements have been signed, nor any terms agreed on, in respect of any such transactions.
H.C. Wainwright & Co. acted as the exclusive placement agent for the private placement.
H.C. Wainwright & Co. received (i) a cash commission equal to 8.0% of the gross proceeds of the Offering and (ii) 3,023,497 non-transferable broker warrants (the "Broker Warrants"). Each Broker Warrant will entitle the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of CAD$0.4375 at any time on or before September 17, 2024.
No securities were offered for sale or sold to Canadian residents. The securities issued under the Offering are subject to customary resale restrictions in the United States with no resale restrictions in Canada.
Classic Bull Flag on Hive BlockchainClassic bull flag forming on Hive blockchain. After hitting a high on Feb 16th week, it has sold off the last 4 weeks on decreasing volume. A buy can be initiated at $3.85. price target for the pattern is $9.75.
Blockchain Foundry - Moon #2 Targeted for end-of-AprilIf Fibonacci has anything to do with it, we'll have ourselves moon #2 for Blockchain Foundry right at the end of April, targeting $1.40 - Let's go!
Disclaimer: I own a lot of BCFN because I'm one of the founders of the company.
$EBON to Launch Cryptocurrency Exchange by the End of March 2021Ebang International to Commence Beta Testing on March 15, 2021 and Launch Cryptocurrency Exchange by the End of March 2021
Our upcoming cryptocurrency exchange will accelerate the Company's development in the financial technology industry. In addition to establishing a digital asset financial service platform, the Company will also explore other business opportunities in establishing mining farms and cryptocurrency mining to optimize the structure of the global cryptocurrency platform as well as our offerings in the blockchain industry value chain.”
There is no guarantee that the Company’s operation of its cryptocurrency exchange will commence as planned or at all, or that such business operation will improve the Company’s financial performance or results of operations. Shareholders are cautioned not to place undue reliance on this press release or the forward-looking statements contained herein.
finance.yahoo.com
Bull Flag pattern on RIOTTextbook bull flag developing on Riot Blockchain. A daily close today above $52 is a confirmed breakout. Next week the breakout is at $42.
Target for the pattern is (high - low of the flag) + the breakout point. $79.50 - $16.75 = $62.75. If confirmed this week = 62.75 +52 = $114.75 price target. If next week $104.75
NCTY & other crypto stocks to make sure y have in your portfolioWe are going to compare some crypto stocks that are leading the charts at the moment and focus mostly on NCTY.
Fundamentals :
So we are looking at one of my favs ! the 9 is a crypto stock that is kicking ass since last Friday's drop and the union bought a massive amount of its dip.
The 9 is now 900% up YTD ! that is massive. The surge of the stock is contributed to the company announcing they will start mining crypto's in Jan 2021 and since has announced the purchase of more mining equipment to mine BTC and FIL among others.
The 9 was also associated with EV plays late last year and its main income was video games, although it is not going so great for them at that sector currently.
They hired Cai Zhifang in February for their crypto subsidiary NBTC, as the new acting CEO.
Cai has been a crypto pioneer since 2013 and co-founded YiBit , one of the first blockchain platforms in china, and get this: in 2015 Cai’s mining rate accounted for over 4% of the global hash rate of BTC worldwide ! with over 300k miners under AvalonMiners.
So what is expected of this stock?
Well personally I would say that just like MARA im playing ping pong with these stocks – I sell them every time they break a new higher high of 5% and buy them at every dip of over 10% - 15% I can get – and thanks to BTC volatility that is going well and giving me a lot of entries and exits 😊
Let's talk technicals :
• From 02 till 12 of Feb stock was going in a nice steady uptrend
• From the 13th till the 19th it moved parabolically and made an 83% move in just 5 trading sessions – ATH of 89.2$ ( this is usually where I start dumping the stock in 20% chunks every time)
• From 23 till 26 the stock has been falling and gave me great cheap entries along the way and bottomed down to 32.9$ (notice the difference from highest high of 89$ - free money !), the level of 32 is now our strongest bottom support and can relay on that area for dip-buying
• From 26 of February till 09 of March stock is channeling 32$ to 51$ - nice channel move to buy and sell steady
• After march 9th it broke 51 and touched 64$ and now trading at that area as its current support
Important points :
1. Below 32 stock is going into the dead zone and we will buy dips only up to that number, below that we will just wait for it to resurface.
2. RSI nose down – correction is due (I think a small one not too big)
3. ADX below 40 – not trending- we must see when it crosses 40 that means the action is coming.
4. The POC (volume point of control) is 42$ - which means stock needs to revisit that area and we will buy more there.
5. Price is sitting exactly on the 50% line from the parabolic motive wave it did in February – the wonders of FIB retracements are amazing – that means we know where the stock needs to be when hype is not high.
Volume analysis :
• 3 months avg volume is 4.8M
• 1M volume avg is 5.2M
• This week its about 1.3M (estimate)
** we want to keep an eye if the volume goes above 3M that can mean the big movement is coming.
What to expect :
I want to see the stock going back to the 42$ area where we can buy more and then converge sideways for a couple of days and then take off above 51$ (green arrow on chart).
If BTC will give us another dive like last week we can expect to get the stock at a massive discount.
Short interest :
11.5% short of float
Increase of 4%
Shares float is 5,900,000
Current shares short 679,700
Nothing special – looks good to me
Insider buys :
Nothing to report – no insider buys found.
Compare to the key players in crypto stocks :
Lets compare MARA , NCTY, STPK, SOS,EBON,BTBT, CAN, RIOT
1. RIOT leading with a 1752% rise
2. MARA 1744%
3. CAN 1380%
4. NCTY 641%
5. BTBT 326%
6. SOS 257%
7. STPK 221%
8. EBON -13%
Crazy percentages all around!
The union will keep buying deeps on these leading stocks and use the best of the BTC era that we are experiencing.
Trade safe! Be safe!
CCNC-you dont know the next stock to ROCK the crypto worldso this is "Code Chain New Continent"
FUNDAMENTAL:
they are quietly building a crypto empire and staying under the reader - a couple of interesting facts:
1. In early February 2021, the company have an announcement for a new co-CEO -David Feng :
"David Feng holds years of experience as a senior computer network security engineer. As the strategic expert and architect in Blockchain, he has applied for several patents on Blockchain core technology, artificial intelligence, and big data"
this is on the tip of the iceberg to what Mr. Fang has done on the blockchain.
2. 23rd Feb, news for CCNC purchase 10,000 Bitcoin mining machines to start their mining business.
The company is expecting over 30k $ per day from these miners and has already put them to work.
3.On march 2nd Company published a ‘Letter of intent’ (LOI) to XiaoJin LangLang, in the intention of acquiring 61% of their business!!!
if they act on this LOI (any day this week!!) that will be a big jump on the stock.
“Under the terms of the LOI, the total consideration for 61% of Xiaojin Langlang's equity interest is expected to be RMB 36 million (approximately USD 5.6 million), subject to completion of a third-party valuation. Of this amount, 50% shall be paid in cash, and 50% shall be paid in the Company's shares of common stock. Code Chain is required to pay $500,000 within 7 business days from the signing date of the LOI, which will be applied to the final purchase price upon entry in to the material definitive purchase agreement. “
(taken from the SEC official LOI)
CEO is also a doctor in blockchain and innovative technology - full DD in our site contains full details.
Lets talk technicals :
So we got a motive wave from 8th of Feb to 17th of Feb with a high of 11.6$, and a volume measure of 14M.
After that we had a retracing wave to the 6.6$ line -what happened next in my opinion had nothing to do with the stock but with the stock market and Crypto market – the drop of 12% of the NASDAQ in a week took the stock in to new lows from 6$ to 4.2$.
Stock needs to go back to the 50% level at 6.6$ (if the market is done with sharp bearish moves).
If we are considering the Eliot wave theory then the stock is ready for its third stage of the impulse (the strongest one! ) to take us back to 10$+.
• Stochastic oversold (8)
• ADX on the 20 level (no trend)
• Ending volume is expected to arrive acc to market cycle theory
• Gap between 4.80 to 5.20 is filled
***If we see stock crosses 3.9$ downward we can enter a low of 2.8$ (at worst case)
***If we see stock trending up we expect it to go back to the POC (50% line is the same line at this case) 6.6$
Volume analysis :
3m average volume: 895K
1m average volume: 1.3M
This week volume: 3.9M
Once the 500k will be transferred (if LOI is executed the stock is expected to give us an upside of 25% - 30%.
And a year from now accounting a 30k min mining gross profit the stock is expected to be well beyond 15$.
We will be waiting to buy the stock and once the market gives us a definite answer regarding the bearish trend that started this month.
please read full DD for the full picture
please trade safe !
SOS-did you buy too high -what to do next ? SOS
So let's talk technicals :
The stock shot up 263% (red trend line) in 6 days. It did it in 2 waves of impulse.
The stock got massively dumped on the 17th of Feb – this is a big drop in a 2-hour time frame with over 50% retraced. Not a good behavior of an asset with a catalyst on it as it looks like a pump and dump which is not the case but traders took it as a flip!
Correction on the drop of 50% up from 10.5$ to 13$ -then stock lost traction several dojis in a row.
Guess what comes after several dojis in a row – a drop😊 that’s usually the case if you have an igniting bar followed by Dojis.
The stock touched below 10 – notice 10.5 is a KEY number on this trade!
Volume of entry is bigger than the volume of exit meaning the cycle is completed and now we wait to see where the second cycle takes us (opening volume vs closing volume)
RSI showing more room on the downside on 1H meaning on a 4H we are on the mid of the RSI level
What's the play?
Simple :
If the stock crosses 10.5 below and hits 9 this could be a convergence level where the stock will slowly travel downwards…. We must watch out for 10.5 level and 9 levels!
on the Other hand, if the stock bounces off the 10.5 to the 11.5 line and CROSSES it – we are good to go to the previous high at 16$ and potentially get a new higher high.
Notice accumulation is needed above 11.5 so we may get a side trend on that level before we go to the 16$
Volume Analysis :
3-month average: 23.5M
1-month average volume: 48M
Volume that drove the first wave up 70M
Volume that drove the price down 60M (good means we still have a lot of traders in on this one)
Current volume: appx 10M -keep an eye if crosses 30M we may get another wave up
FDGT will wait to see whats the stocks next move and if we get 11.5$ + we may jump in
Please do your own DD on the stock and trade safe!
We expect a correction on BTC soon that may correlate with the stock
Trade safe and be safe
FDGT the traders union