One of The Most Manipulated & Inflated Assets of All TimeBNB has been consistently the best performing crypto asset since its inception in 2017. Since then, it has gone from mere pennies to nearly $700, outperforming both Ethereum and Bitcoin. How is this possible, given that the TOTAL crypto market cap lingers close to its 2017 all-time high, 5 years later??
How is this possible, given that the crypto market itself hasn't sustained much growth since 2017, Binance volume has declined, and given that cryptocurrencies themselves do not provide a necessary in-demand service for society? For an exchange like Binance, trading and gabling is the top priority, not meaningful change to infrastructure, the environment, or fundamental human needs.
It's been over 3 years since I've written an article or any sort of analysis on Binance Coin (BNB). Here is one of my last posts from 2019, which includes roughly the same bullish channel shown on the righthand chart of this post:
It's quite incredible how well BNB has respected this channel and its trendlines over the years. A Technical Analyst's wet dream.
Needless to say, my experience and perspective has changed since 2019, but one thing does remain the same: I believe BNB is heavily manipulated. And it's not really a question; the chain itself is deflationary by design, and there are those at the top who have a vested interest in keeping the value high. It also has enforced demand. Since Binance has become the go-to exchange for many, at first glance it makes sense that BNB continues to outperform the rest of the market. When I first came across BNB at the end of 2017, trading with it was useful because it help reduce fees on Binance. At that time, it was an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network. I had a bad feeling about it, so I couldn't commit to holding the token. From a profit standpoint, of course it was a bad move to let go of my BNB coins.
As of April 2019, BNB became its own chain (with a code similar to that of NEO, I believe). Now, it's become an entire ecosystem with a Decentralized Exchange, burn mechanism, lottery system, NFT's, and plenty of other nebulous forms of functionality. Many existing projects also migrated to the Binance "smart chain," some of which migrated from NEO, which at the time shared some tech with the new BNB chain. This likely caused a decline in usage and popularity for NEO, which struggled to maintain relevance next to Binance's marketing and their presence as the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world.
During this period between 2017 and the present day, BNB is the ONLY relevant cryptocurrency that has continuously made new all time highs against Bitcoin, as far as I'm aware. BNB now maintains a solid position in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, currently standing at around $45 Billion.
HOWEVER
As you can see on the above charts, volume has fallen off a cliff. This tells me Binance's price is influenced by very little *authentic* trading. Volatility has also immensely declined. This may have something to do with the banning of crypto trading in China in 2021, as well as other regulatory crackdowns. It remains incredibly likely that BNB would be deemed a security in the eyes of the SEC, since Binance employees receive payment in BNB, and the token itself is often seen as an investment in Binance as a company. Assumably, if the company is doing well, BNB benefits.
BNB has all sorts of mechanisms keeping it afloat: Quarterly token burn mechanisms (as mentioned earlier), numerous stabelcoins (some of which operate on the Binance smart chain itself, and recycled profits from other cryptocurrency projects. BNB has sucked market share from almost everything else. How else can something maintain such a high relative value while markets tumble and liquidity evaporates? The only explanation I can come with is that it is being propped up. I've also noticed that BNB generally maintains a positive funding rate on Binance while others have remained negative during the bear market, which may indicate that it has continuous long interest from futures.
Now, looking at the recent news, a $500M hack has occurred, right under the nose of Binance, on their very own "smart chain." This is the largest hack experienced by Binance, and it joins the ranks of some of the largest crypto hacks of all time. While hack attempts are surely made in our banking system, it makes one wonder what the precise point is of this "alternative financial system" if it is so susceptible to hacks of this scale. I mean come on, the entire chain was halted. Apparently BNB was originally created as a means to repay customers after a Bitcoin hack in 2017. Now that's pretty interesting, don't you think?
Looking at the monthly chart, BNB itself has halted. Price action has essentially flatlined, underneath the 9 month EMA.
I expect price to eventually break below or at least test the 50 month MA (red). I'm leaning towards a breakdown here, mostly due to the lack of PA and volume, in addition to my feeling that negative news is likely to continue. It's also important to note the breakdown of the long term uptrend against the dollar, and the lingering at near the top of the bullish channel against Bitcoin. I think price can decline straight back to the $40-50 level, near the breakout point for the last bull run, and at least back to the middle of the channel against Bitcoin. Depending on how badly Binance would be hit by such a crash in BNB price, I will reassess from there. Of course, there is the chance for markets to bounce throughout Q4 of this year, since SPX hit the 200 week Moving Average. There may even be some room for rare optimism from me, depending on how things play out in the coming weeks.
Despite this, I believe the house of cards is still likely to continue to fall for crypto. I have very little conviction in this market's durability at the moment. Again, here is the TOTAL market cap chart, showing that the 50 month MA holds as support, likely due to the price performance of coins like ETH and BNB, as well as stablecoin dominance.
A crash in BNB would be likely to send other crypto prices lower as traders look for liquidity and the exchange goes into crisis mode. Certain stablecoins like USDT and BUSD may also be in trouble, should that happen, also due to a liquidity crunch.
As always, this is meant as speculation! This may not play out at all, and I could just be spouting nonsense. Regardless, it's fun to think about these things. Unlike U.S. banks, a crypto exchange like Binance has very little recourse should it fall. Even people who still believe in the long term viability of Bitcoin will agree - get funds off exchanges.
Again, this is not meant as financial advice. The future is not certain. All we can do is speculate and entertain ourselves in this wild world.
Thank you for reading.
-Victor Cobra
