Bitcoin - Escalation or Reprieve? After some time, Bitcoin has finally tested the $20k level. All the cryptos I held throughout the bull market are now below the levels where I first de-risked in January, 2021. This means that prices are now below every single one of my sell points. A move like this seemed likely to me, considering the breakdown of the 3-day 200 MA back in April. Prior to that, I liquidated most of my crypto earlier in 2022, due to a multitude of other warning signs. Here is the post from April, calling for $20k:
In my last Bitcoin analysis, I wrote about the potential for some sort of relief rally heading into the U.S. Midterm elections. Since then, price has continued to drop, but this scenario remains in play. This is not a time where I feel comfortable putting in a lot of capital, but it's a time where I'm certainly looking or opportunities. This is why I'm toying with some small alt positions to see if I can catch a bounce. Here's the last analysis:
Bitcoin now sits dangerously below the 200 week MA (teal), and must get above soon, otherwise it risks becoming major resistance. As Ethereum is now decidedly below its 2017 all-time high (near $1440 on Binance), it seems a real possibility Bitcoin will drop below the key $19-20k zone. Some liquidity still exists in the large area between $13.6k and $17.2k, so price can even venture briefly down there before any meaningful recovery for the market.
The theme of this post is ESCALATION or REPRIEVE.
What would ESCALATION look like? Well, as you might have noticed, a few major funds, platforms, and exchanges are in danger of insolvency. Many in this space were irresponsibly leveraged, most likely because they did not believe Bitcoin would ever retest its 2017 high and continue its established pattern. Escalation would mean that this creates a domino effect, until almost every exchange and firm shuts down, resulting in an extreme liquidity crisis. This could, in theory, push Bitcoin price continuously lower with no end in sight. This is what most sellers fear at the moment. And it's a very real possibility.
Now, what would a REPRIEVE look like? A reprieve is a delay in punishment. Sure, Bitcoin can bounce here and slowly grind up towards some other Moving Average resistances in the coming months. Historically, it has done this, once it reaches the 200 week MA. The way I see it, a relief rally would simply delay the inevitable. I no longer believe Bitcoin is in a long term uptrend, and instead has reversed to the downside. Almost every bullish narrative for Bitcoin price has now unwinded, in my opinion. I think the last remaining chance is forced adoption . This would mean that although most people would not choose to use it (the evidence for this already exists in El Salvador), the government could enslave everyone by buying a bunch of Bitcoin and doling out limited amounts of it to the populace once the Dollar collapses. This is the doomsday scenario Bitcoiners have been prepping for this whole time. There is an incredibly amount of irony in this. You take a currency that hardly anyone wants to use, so how do you make sure that people use it? You enlist the government and big banks. But wait, I thought big government and banks couldn't control Bitcoin? I thought that was the whole point! You mean to say Bitcoin adoption inevitably evolves into authoritarianism? WHAAAT??
You can see how this argument can end up in absurd circles with logical fallacy upon logical fallacy. But, let's say something like the scenario I wrote about above actually happens . Even in this circumstance, the government may simply end up buying a ton of Bitcoin for $1000 a piece (or lower). Depending on liquidity, this can finally push price above $100k. So, I guess I understand why Bitcoiners want to hold onto their coins no matter what. But will they hold on no matter the value?
Even so, I think the above circumstance is unlikely. Bitcoin has broken its long term trend against traditional markets, as I wrote about here:
As I've also pointed out, a currency with a fixed supply is not a great unit of exchange since it encourages hoarding and not spending. With this logic, it makes sense why Bitcoin price is decreasing rapidly in an inflationary environment - people are finally selling or spending it, and not buying it! This is because its value far exceeded the dollar over the last 10 years, so it's actually a GREAT currency....for those who bought early. Now, even those who bought at the 2017 bubble peak are merely around break-even, and at a loss if they bought Ethereum. This doesn't even take into account inflation.
Here is my post where I outlined a speculative trajectory for the coming months. So far, so good. Now, if it fails to even attempt a bounce near these levels it'll probably look even worse than that.
Nevertheless, there always exists a possibility counter to my bias. For instance, if Bitcoin can bounce hard here and clear the $37-42k resistance zone, then maintaining above $40k for many weeks, I may consider a longer term ranging market with some eventual upside. I do think there is somewhat of a chance we see some slow relief here with low volume throughout the rest of the Summer, into the fall. During this time, a select few altcoins would probably again pump and dump in a "last hurrah." This is why I have toyed with entering some small altcoin spot positions. Really, I can't help myself. It's the "I might as well" trade. Come on Bitcoin, let's just give the 200 week MA a chance!
In the event of a recovery soon, I can see a media narrative where it is blamed on the FED's perceived inability to tame inflation (meaning that although it may not be true, the market expects no matter WHAT the interest rates are, inflation will still exist, so they YOLO everything back into assets because, well, we're irrational beings). Then, as interest rates continue higher, unemployment jumps, and markets begin their true multi-year decline into the next great depression. Inflation eventually drops, but by then markets are deep into a bear market and unemployment so high that few can buy stocks or other assets. Then, we get The New Deal, Part II. All fun (and scary) speculation of course!
Thanks for sticking with me on this crazy ride!
This is not meant as financial advice - it represents only my opinion and it is highly speculative.
-Victor Cobra
Cryptotrader
One of The Most Manipulated & Inflated Assets of All TimeBNB has been consistently the best performing crypto asset since its inception in 2017. Since then, it has gone from mere pennies to nearly $700, outperforming both Ethereum and Bitcoin. How is this possible, given that the TOTAL crypto market cap lingers close to its 2017 all-time high, 5 years later??
How is this possible, given that the crypto market itself hasn't sustained much growth since 2017, Binance volume has declined, and given that cryptocurrencies themselves do not provide a necessary in-demand service for society? For an exchange like Binance, trading and gabling is the top priority, not meaningful change to infrastructure, the environment, or fundamental human needs.
It's been over 3 years since I've written an article or any sort of analysis on Binance Coin (BNB). Here is one of my last posts from 2019, which includes roughly the same bullish channel shown on the righthand chart of this post:
It's quite incredible how well BNB has respected this channel and its trendlines over the years. A Technical Analyst's wet dream.
Needless to say, my experience and perspective has changed since 2019, but one thing does remain the same: I believe BNB is heavily manipulated. And it's not really a question; the chain itself is deflationary by design, and there are those at the top who have a vested interest in keeping the value high. It also has enforced demand. Since Binance has become the go-to exchange for many, at first glance it makes sense that BNB continues to outperform the rest of the market. When I first came across BNB at the end of 2017, trading with it was useful because it help reduce fees on Binance. At that time, it was an ERC-20 token on the Ethereum network. I had a bad feeling about it, so I couldn't commit to holding the token. From a profit standpoint, of course it was a bad move to let go of my BNB coins.
As of April 2019, BNB became its own chain (with a code similar to that of NEO, I believe). Now, it's become an entire ecosystem with a Decentralized Exchange, burn mechanism, lottery system, NFT's, and plenty of other nebulous forms of functionality. Many existing projects also migrated to the Binance "smart chain," some of which migrated from NEO, which at the time shared some tech with the new BNB chain. This likely caused a decline in usage and popularity for NEO, which struggled to maintain relevance next to Binance's marketing and their presence as the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the world.
During this period between 2017 and the present day, BNB is the ONLY relevant cryptocurrency that has continuously made new all time highs against Bitcoin, as far as I'm aware. BNB now maintains a solid position in the top 5 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization, currently standing at around $45 Billion.
HOWEVER
As you can see on the above charts, volume has fallen off a cliff. This tells me Binance's price is influenced by very little *authentic* trading. Volatility has also immensely declined. This may have something to do with the banning of crypto trading in China in 2021, as well as other regulatory crackdowns. It remains incredibly likely that BNB would be deemed a security in the eyes of the SEC, since Binance employees receive payment in BNB, and the token itself is often seen as an investment in Binance as a company. Assumably, if the company is doing well, BNB benefits.
BNB has all sorts of mechanisms keeping it afloat: Quarterly token burn mechanisms (as mentioned earlier), numerous stabelcoins (some of which operate on the Binance smart chain itself, and recycled profits from other cryptocurrency projects. BNB has sucked market share from almost everything else. How else can something maintain such a high relative value while markets tumble and liquidity evaporates? The only explanation I can come with is that it is being propped up. I've also noticed that BNB generally maintains a positive funding rate on Binance while others have remained negative during the bear market, which may indicate that it has continuous long interest from futures.
Now, looking at the recent news, a $500M hack has occurred, right under the nose of Binance, on their very own "smart chain." This is the largest hack experienced by Binance, and it joins the ranks of some of the largest crypto hacks of all time. While hack attempts are surely made in our banking system, it makes one wonder what the precise point is of this "alternative financial system" if it is so susceptible to hacks of this scale. I mean come on, the entire chain was halted. Apparently BNB was originally created as a means to repay customers after a Bitcoin hack in 2017. Now that's pretty interesting, don't you think?
Looking at the monthly chart, BNB itself has halted. Price action has essentially flatlined, underneath the 9 month EMA.
I expect price to eventually break below or at least test the 50 month MA (red). I'm leaning towards a breakdown here, mostly due to the lack of PA and volume, in addition to my feeling that negative news is likely to continue. It's also important to note the breakdown of the long term uptrend against the dollar, and the lingering at near the top of the bullish channel against Bitcoin. I think price can decline straight back to the $40-50 level, near the breakout point for the last bull run, and at least back to the middle of the channel against Bitcoin. Depending on how badly Binance would be hit by such a crash in BNB price, I will reassess from there. Of course, there is the chance for markets to bounce throughout Q4 of this year, since SPX hit the 200 week Moving Average. There may even be some room for rare optimism from me, depending on how things play out in the coming weeks.
Despite this, I believe the house of cards is still likely to continue to fall for crypto. I have very little conviction in this market's durability at the moment. Again, here is the TOTAL market cap chart, showing that the 50 month MA holds as support, likely due to the price performance of coins like ETH and BNB, as well as stablecoin dominance.
A crash in BNB would be likely to send other crypto prices lower as traders look for liquidity and the exchange goes into crisis mode. Certain stablecoins like USDT and BUSD may also be in trouble, should that happen, also due to a liquidity crunch.
As always, this is meant as speculation! This may not play out at all, and I could just be spouting nonsense. Regardless, it's fun to think about these things. Unlike U.S. banks, a crypto exchange like Binance has very little recourse should it fall. Even people who still believe in the long term viability of Bitcoin will agree - get funds off exchanges.
Again, this is not meant as financial advice. The future is not certain. All we can do is speculate and entertain ourselves in this wild world.
Thank you for reading.
-Victor Cobra
BTC/USDT Bullish rally upcoming?..👀 btc today analysis
💎Currently, Bitcoin is trading within a tight wedge, maintaining a strong support level. If the wedge breaks above, it could ignite bullish sentiments.
💎 if it breaks below, we might anticipate a bearish move of up to 13%. BTC continues to trade above the VWAP level. If it sustains this, it could potentially shift market momentum
💎 In the ever-changing crypto universe, staying updated and adaptable is essential. Stay tuned for more updates and enjoy your trading journey!
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Still working this video thing out. Going to be using TV as a rough draft. So uploads on other places will have the corrections and will be cleaned and scrubbed.
A Wolf In White Knight's Clothing - The End of A CartelThe saying is usually "a wolf in sheep's clothing," but you'll see why I reworded it a little further down. The above charts show TRX (Tron) and BNB (Binance Coin) side by side, in what I believe to be distribution ranges after breaking uptrends. Distribution is how these players achieve profit (selling to prospective buyers). I think they will eventually break down massively. If they do not, it means the infinite money scheme, despite its glaring obviousness, has continued to work. All eyes are on them now, so there may be a limit to what they can accomplish now. This is why I think it's very important to pay attention at this moment.
Yesterday, I noticed enormous stablecoin outflows from Binance to Coinbase. These were mostly USDC, which is recognized as legitimate in the United States. My speculation is that Binance and other players in the crypto cartel are extracting capital from the markets using liquidity generated by artificial/counterfeit stablecoins, such as USDD and BUSD. USDD is the stablecoin on the Tron network, while BUSD is the stablecoin on the Binance chain. The collapse of FTX of course was probably inevitable, and CZ knew this. In order to distract the market from the larger scheme, he appeared as a "white knight," or a person who appears to come to the rescue, but is only serving self-interest. He is a wolf on the hunt, not a white knight, and certainly not a sheep. CZ (Binance) likely had no intention of buying out FTX, and used the liquidity generated from the pump to dump BNB on the open market. In a similar move, Justin Sun (Tron) allowed some funds to be withdrawn from FTX through the TRX network. Why? It benefits token values and allows for exit liquidity. However, this is merely forced demand. If Binance monopolizes the crypto space, they have cornered the market. This is clearly not decentralization.
Now, let's say Binance and other exchanges hope to keep running. What do they need? Buyers. By the very nature of the speculative market, no single player can admit that things are going wrong, or that things have little intrinsic value. If they do, prices will be sent cascading lower in the blink of an eye. Instead, it needs to be a slow unwind. That's why the above charts are significant. At any moment, they could meet the same fate as LUNA or FTT. This is because I think it is very unlikely the crypto market will attract the authentic buyer liquidity required to keep Bitcoin miners afloat and the cartel running. Eventually they will need to decide enough is enough. I think CZ's "white knight" behavior may, in hindsight, be the signal.
Will they get away with it? After so many billions extracted, one must wonder - where is all that money?
This is my opinion, and not meant as financial advice. This is meant for speculation and entertainment only.
-Victor Cobra
XRP is at a crucial level! XRP analysis today💎 BINANCE:XRPUSDT finds itself at a crucial price point. It's evident that it rebounded off the demand zone around $.4251 and has ascended impressively to the decision point for an upward move. This level, $.54.57, has been a resistance point, but we might just break through this time.
💎 Paradisers, note that the 9 period VWMA is being adhered to nicely and it's angling upwards. We might just have enough momentum to push through.
#XRP
#XRPUSDT
CRYPTOCAP:XRP
💎 A potential stop could be a close on the daily candles below the 9 VWMA. Remember, in the dynamic world of crypto, every move counts. Stay tuned for more updates and happy trading!
QuickUSDT ready for Bullish Breakout! 👀quick today analysis💎 At present, QuickUSDT holds strong support and has once again entered a falling wedge and triangle pattern.
💎 QuickUSDT is in a high demand zone, a breakout from the falling wedge could potentially trigger a significant bullish move.
💎 In the ever-changing crypto universe, staying updated and adaptable is essential. Stay tuned for more updates and enjoy your trading journey!
FILUSDT something truly exciting in the market!!👀
💎 FILUSDT makes a breakout from a triangle pattern, hinting at a potential market transition.
💎There’s an unmitigated order block acting as a support level.
💎 If the price breaks below the support level of 3.889, it's expected to retest the order block
💎 If the price sustains above the order block during this retest and begins to display bullish price action, it could be a positive indicator.
💎 In the ever-evolving crypto landscape, staying informed and flexible is crucial. Stay tuned for more updates and enjoy your trading journey!
XRP/USD Secondary trend. Channel.Secondary trend. Logarithmic chart. Time frame 3 days. Descending channel. Reversal zone.
Coinmarketcap: XRP
The same parameters, but on a line graph. Slightly shifted the graph for a better understanding of the zone.
The price clamp zone is 16.13% on a large scale on the 1 day time frame.
This is what this 13.16% looks like on a line chart.
Below is an idea of a larger time frame to understand where the price is.
The whole main trend . Timeframe 1 month.
XRP/USD Main trend
Main trend (part) . Timeframe 1 week. Triangle zone.
XRP/USD Main trend (part) Triangle
bitcoin pump incoming ?!! btc anayylsis today W e're witnessing another adjustm ent in the bullish trend, closely tracking the Ascending line 👀
💎 Paradisers, anticipate a bounce from the supportive cluster of MA 50 and the Ascending line.
💎 It's time to ride the bull once the bounce is co
nfirmed 📈
💎 Remember, in the dynamic world of crypto, staying informed and adaptable is key. Stay tuned for more updates and happy trading!
BTC 20% pump incoming ?!! BTC anaylsis today 💎 Observing yet another correction in the bullish trend, closely following the Ascending line 👀
💎 The price is poised to rebound from the supportive cluster of MA 50 and Ascending line.
💎 Paradisers, it's time to adopt a bullish stance once the bounce is confirmed 📈
💎 Remember, in the fast-paced world of crypto, timing is everything. Stay tuned for more updates and happy trading!
Cardano non popular chart 💔Update:
Cardano non popular chart 💔
I HODL ADA for long-term
Looking on weekly chart without emotion and bias...
ADA might correct🔻much lower dear Crypto Nation
Even $0.095 or $0.053 would not be the end of future price gains - just Log-Fib
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion
$BTC Path updatesIf you find this info inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better!
Had the level it reacted from on watch in the last update, here are some of my new Elliott wave ideal paths I am watching for.
Bitcoin (BTCUSD): Long Trade Explained ₿
Bitcoin broke and closed above a key daily resistance on Sunday.
The market is currently retesting the broken structure.
Analyzing the reaction to the underlined blue area, I spotted a tiny double bottom pattern on 1H time frame.
The price has successfully violated its neckline.
I recommend buying Bitcoin.
Goals: 28050 / 28400
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Not financial advice, you do you
Looking for a potential move down here but a flip of the 66.92 level would be ideal for the bulls.
CRV, give it to me straight!If you find this info inspiring/helpful, please consider a boost and follow! Any questions or comments, please leave a comment! Also, check out the links in my signature to get to know me better!
At an important level here, watching for how PA prints from here.
If it bounces, could be some kind of running or expanding correction coming in.
I am anchoring the count based off of an impulse down, due to sharpness, so looking for an impulse to complete the ZZ. It may be some kind of 2xZZ as well, but I have some long entries planned as well if that is the case.
Cheers!
Bitcoin traffic light scenario🚦Remember my Bitcoin traffic light scenario🚦
🔴Bearish phase
TKD indicator turned from green to red
🟡BTC accumulation phase
TKD indicator forms a top
🟢Bullish phase
TKD indicator turned from red to green
We are on track dear Crypto Nation😎
Let me know your thoughts in the comments🤗
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Likes and Follow for updates appreciated🤗
Disclaimer:
Not financial advice
Do your own research before investing
The content shared is for educational purposes only and is my personal opinion