BTCUSD: What if it's just a Channel Up to $175k?Bitcoin remains neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.175, MACD = -714.800, ADX = 31.665) as it is stuck between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200 but it's the wider timeframes that are particularly critical right now and more specifically the 1W, which is causing the current rebound on the 1W MA50. We can argue that the pattern since the Dec 2017 Top is a Channel Up, even though the last Bear Cycle bottom didn't make exact contact with its bottom.
We can equally however assume that the new Cycle High won't make direct contact with the Channel's Top either. And that's also backed up technically by the Fibonacci levels of the previous Cycle, which saw BTC making a Top just over the 1.618 Fib extension. Consequently we can assume the new Top to hit at least $175,000 (Fib 1.618 currently). The bullish wave is also a direct Channel Up since the November 2022 bottom after all. Even on the previous Cycle, if we exclude the COVID crash price distortion, the bullish wave was a Channel Up as well.
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Cryptotrading
Mastering Compulsiveness: Volatile Coins Like TRUMP Are a Trap My Take on Dealing with Compulsiveness in Trading: Lessons with TRUMPUSDT.P
Estimated Reading Time: Approximately 5 minutes
I chose to focus on TRUMPUSDT.P for this idea because its extreme volatility makes it a perfect example of how compulsive trading can spiral out of control. TRUMPUSDT.P, a perpetual futures contract tied to the TRUMP token, often swings 20-30% in a day, driven by political news and social media hype, which can easily tempt traders into impulsive decisions and overtrading.
After years of trading and studying trading psychology, I’ve learned how dangerous compulsiveness can be in the markets. I used to think being a good trader meant always being in the game, but I’ve seen how that mindset can lead to disaster. Compulsiveness is when you’re driven by the need to act—chasing the thrill of trading instead of focusing on steady profits. It’s a trap that can lead to overtrading, emotional exhaustion, and serious financial losses, not to mention the strain it puts on your life outside of trading.
From my experience, compulsiveness often unfolds in three stages. First, you get a taste of winning, and it makes you feel unstoppable, so you keep pushing for more action. Then, when losses start piling up, you enter a losing phase where you trade recklessly to get back what you lost. Before you know it, you’re in a desperation phase, completely consumed by the need to recover, which often leads to even bigger losses. I’ve been through this cycle myself, and it’s a tough one to break.
One thing that really helped me was learning how to spot compulsive behavior. I came across a set of questions from Gambler’s Anonymous that can help you figure out if you’re showing signs of compulsiveness—like feeling the urge to trade after a loss or letting trading take over other parts of your life. It’s a simple way to check in with yourself and see if you’re heading down a risky path.
Over time, I’ve picked up some strategies to keep compulsiveness in check and build better discipline. The biggest one is to only trade when I have a clear, logical reason—like a price reaching a key support or resistance level on the daily chart of TRUMPUSDT.P—otherwise, I stay out of the market, no matter how much I feel the itch to jump in. I’ve also learned to pay attention to my emotional state and recognize when I’m trading out of impulse rather than focus. Shifting my mindset to care more about the process of trading well, rather than the excitement of being in a trade, has made a huge difference. I make sure to take breaks when I feel the urge to overtrade, set strict limits on how much I’m willing to risk, and always take time to reflect on why I’m making a trade in the first place.
What I’ve come to understand is that trading isn’t about constant action—it’s about mastering your mind. Compulsiveness can ruin your trading if you let it take over, especially with a volatile ticker like TRUMPUSDT.P, but with self-awareness and discipline, you can get past it. For me, it’s all about trading with intention, keeping my emotions in check, and focusing on long-term consistency instead of short-term thrills.
If you found this helpful, keep following me for more educational materials on the psychology of trading. I’ll be sharing more insights and strategies to help you master your mindset and become a more disciplined trader.
Bitcoin Looking Bullish on 4 hour - printing a bull FlagBitcoin is certainly looking Bullish on the lower time frames and, in my opinion, continur to fall in the Flag till we get near that lower Trend line of Ascending channel we been making since the Low around 76K
The 4 hour MACD is falling Bearish and support the idea of a continues Drop to lower Trend line
I think the Margins are too tight to do any day trading
Just Sitting, waiting.
Longer term, I am still prepared to see another Drop Lower but maybe not to the 76K range again.
The Monthly candle for March is currently Green off an expected RED.
It has Long wicks above and Below, showing a good fight between Bulls and Bears.
The Body of this candle is not Big but it would take a serious drop out of range to turn it red
So, RELAX
We should be OK
Long Entry Signal for ACH/USDT - Bullish Setup (Daily Chart)
Symbol:
Timeframe: Daily
Analysis:
MLR > SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), signaling a bullish trend.
MLR > BB Center: MLR exceeds the Bollinger Bands Center Line (orange), showing strong bullish momentum.
PSAR: PSAR dots (black) are below the price, reinforcing the uptrend.
Price > SMA 200: Price is above the 200-period SMA (red), indicating long-term bullish strength.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Consider a long position at the daily close.
Stop Loss: Place SL at the current PSAR level to limit downside risk.
Follow Me: Follow me for exit or profit-taking opportunities.
Outlook: All indicators align for a bullish move. Stay alert for reversal signals or trend shifts.
Risk Warning: Not financial advice, trade at your own risk
ARB/USDT: Bearish Pressure Builds Below Key ResistanceThe ARB/USDT market recently tested support before rebounding toward the psychological 0.400 level, forming what appears to be an ABC pullback, often a signal for an upcoming retracement. Price has moved above last week’s high, which may indicate a liquidity grab before a potential drop.
When comparing the current bullish pullback to previous stronger bearish moves, the broader momentum appears to favor the bears. If the market fails to break through the channel boundary, trendline, and the 0.420 resistance, a move lower is likely. The next target is the support zone around 0.3500
MetaUnit | Long Entry signal for MEU/USDT Analysis:
MLR > SMA: The MLR (blue) is above the SMA (pink), signaling a bullish trend.
MLR > BB Center: MLR exceeds the Bollinger Bands Center Line (orange), showing strong bullish momentum.
PSAR: PSAR dots (black) are below the price, reinforcing the uptrend.
No SMA 200: SMA 200 unavailable - proceed with caution.
Trade Idea:
Entry: Consider a long position at the daily close.
Stop Loss: Place SL at the current PSAR level to limit downside risk.
Follow Me: Follow me for exit or profit-taking opportunities.
Outlook: All indicators align for a bullish move. Stay alert for reversal signals or trend shifts.
Risk Warning: Not financial advice, trade at your own risk
DOGEUSD: This is the rally that will deliver $1.00Doge is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.126, MACD = -0.009, ADX = 40.011), recovering from its prior oversold state and testing the 1W MA50 for the first time in 3 weeks. The current rebound is being made after touching the 1W MA200, which is technically the new long term bottom, similar with August 5th 2024 and October 9th 2023. As shown, this is a once in a year buy opportunity that aims for the 1.618 Fibonacci extension on the HH trendline. The trade is long, TP = 1.000.
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BTCUSD: Can $160k be a very 'pessimistic' target estimate?Bitcoin is neutral on its 1W technical outlook (RSI = 50.359, MACD = 2868.500, ADX = 51.194) and having rebounded almost on its 1W MA50, there couldn't be a better buy opportunity for the rest of the year. Basically the price is now ranged inside the 1W MA50 and top trendline of the Pi Cycle, while the 1W CCI hit the -100.00 oversold limit. This has been the most efficient buy entry in August 2024 August 2023 even on the Cycle before in June 2021.
Even if the market doesn't make an 'excessive top' above the Channel Up, like the last two Cycles, hitting $160,000 would still be under the top of the Channel Up and the top of the Pi Cycle. No matter how high this target seems now, it will still be a pessimistic, 'bad case' scenario.
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(ETH/USD) Poised for a Major BreakoutMarket Structure & Analysis:
Falling Wedge Breakout: Ethereum previously broke out of a falling wedge pattern, which is a bullish reversal signal.
Ascending Triangle Formation: Price is currently forming an ascending triangle, indicating potential for a breakout.
Support Levels:
$2,021 – Local support.
$1,926 - $1,873 – Strong demand zone.
Resistance Levels:
$2,120 - $2,251 – First resistance zone.
$2,531 - $2,564 – Final bullish target zone.
Trading Plan:
Buy Setup:
Enter long on breakout above $2,120 with strong momentum.
Stop Loss: Below $2,021 (support level).
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $2,251 (first resistance).
TP2: $2,531 (main target).
TP3: $2,564 (extended bullish target).
Risk Factors:
A failure to break $2,120 could result in a pullback to $1,926.
Macroeconomic factors or Bitcoin’s movement may impact Ethereum’s trend.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Rising Wedge BreakdownMarket Structure & Analysis:
Rising Wedge Formation: Price has been moving within a rising wedge pattern, which is typically a bearish reversal pattern.
Bearish Breakdown Expected: BTC is testing the lower boundary of the wedge, indicating a potential breakdown.
Resistance Zone:
$89,649 – Key resistance level preventing further upside.
$88,336 – Local resistance that price failed to sustain above.
Support Levels:
$86,852 - $85,335 – Intermediate support range.
$80,402 – Main target for a bearish move.
$76,725 – Secondary support in case of further decline.
Trading Plan:
Sell Setup:
Wait for confirmation of a breakdown below the wedge.
Enter short if price closes below $86,852 with volume confirmation.
Stop Loss: Above $88,336 to avoid false breakouts.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: $84,474 (first support level).
TP2: $80,402 (main target).
TP3: $76,725 (extended bearish target).
Risk Factors:
If BTC finds strong support at $86,852, a bounce could invalidate the bearish setup.
Macro events (ETF approvals, institutional buy-ins, Fed rate decisions) may impact price action.
LINK/USDT: Strong Momentum Points to Higher TargetsThe LINK/USDT pair has shown strong bullish momentum on the 1-hour timeframe, breaking above both the 15.00 level and a downward trendline. On the daily chart, four consecutive bullish candles reflect persistent buying pressure.
Recent movements suggest an ABC pattern is unfolding, hinting at a potential push toward the 17.00 resistance level. With momentum building, the market may soon test this zone, barring any negative news that could prompt a sell-off. A pullback may occur short term, but the overall outlook remains bullish, with a mid-term target at the resistance zone around 16.45
The Power of Commitment in Trading Psychology: A Key to Success
The Power of Commitment in Trading Psychology: A Key to Success 📈💡
Hey TradingView community! I’ve been diving into some trading books lately, and one chapter really hit home: it’s all about commitment. Turns out, it’s the key to making it as a trader—especially in the crypto space where volatility can test your emotions. Here’s what I learned and how I’m applying it to my trading mindset.
Commitment isn’t just about showing up—it’s about promising yourself to be the best trader you can be. I read about a guy who made a ton of money but lost it all because he wasn’t fully in. It made me realize: you can’t just dabble in this game. You gotta go all in. For me, this means sticking to my trading plan, even when the market (or my emotions) tempts me to stray. In crypto, where prices can swing wildly, this is crucial.
One big thing that messes with commitment is the battle between wanting quick wins and sticking to a plan. I’ve caught myself following random advice without thinking—anyone else been there? It’s a trap. Commitment means getting your mind, emotions, and actions on the same page. I’m working on staying disciplined by focusing on my system, even during losing streaks. For example, I use stop-losses and take-profits to keep my emotions in check when trading BTC or ETH.
Here’s a 3-step process I picked up to build commitment:
1️⃣ Figure out what you really want from trading (e.g., steady growth, not just mooning coins).
2️⃣ Spot what’s getting in your way (like fear of losses or FOMO).
3️⃣ Make a plan to push through—like setting clear risk management rules.
For me, this has been a game-changer in staying consistent, especially in volatile markets like crypto.
Psychology matters so much! A lot of traders fail not because their system sucks, but because they can’t stick with it. I’m starting to see how knowing myself better helps me stay committed. Some practical stuff I’m trying: starting small to build confidence, sticking to my system no matter what, learning from experienced traders, and not letting fear of losses throw me off. My current focus is on keeping my position sizes small (1-2% risk per trade) and reviewing my equity curve weekly to ensure I’m on track.
Biggest takeaway: commitment is what makes or breaks you as a trader. It’s about knowing yourself, staying disciplined, and pushing through the tough times. I’m ready to step up—how about you?
What’s your biggest challenge with staying committed in trading?
Let’s discuss in the comments! 👇
LINK Trade Setup - Higher Low ConfirmationLINK is showing early signs of reversal from a key higher timeframe support zone. We anticipate a short-term dip into the buy zone before shifting into an expansion phase.
🛠 Trade Details:
Entry: $13 – $14 (Buy Zone)
Take Profit Targets:
$17.00 - $17.70 (Initial Resistance)
$21.70 - $22.40 (Breakout Target)
Stop Loss: Daily close below $12
Looking for higher low confirmation before the move up. 📈🚀
Where are we with BITCOIN ? 4hour, Daily and Weekly charts tell I am hearing so many people shouting about "This is it, we are on the way"
It may turn out to be right BUT for me, It seems people are looking at the smaller Time Frames only.
Sure, the main chart here is a 4 hour chart, has been climbing from around 76K ( Told you we would go there )
Looks Lovely and Bullish, though a return to 80K is very possible on the lower trend line
Lets Look at the Daily.
And there it is, Even though on a shorter Time Frame, we seem to be climbing, and we are, it is in fact, all with in a DESCENDING channel
But do not worry, a Bullish sign is that PA does appear to have broken over that Upper trend line of resistance.
We need to wait , probably till next week, to see if this remains Bullish or not.
It is Wise to take note of that Fib Circle that we are coming to in the next couple of weeks. If we get trough, we will hit resistance increasingly from 91K
And so now the weekly - this is a different chart to the Daily
The Bigger picture ALWAYS tells us the reality of the situation. and that is simply that PA is currently on a line of strong Local support (dashed line )
Should this fail, we have strong support below, all the way to 70K.
Be fully aware, this COULD FAIL. We are Mid channel, MACD is still falling Bearish and at current rate of descent, will arrive at Neutral near end of April
The Bullish note is we are still above the 2.272 Fib extension. Sentiment is rising, Selling is Slowing
So in conclusion, we are in a Good place.
PA is becoming stronger and we have support below and PA has remained in "channel" for 3 weeks.
That is NOT Bearish
But we are also NOT in a Bull Run yet.
But, for me, I think we are certainly getting ready/.
As I have said, April may see Volatility, March looks like it may Close GREEN but htis has a week to go yet...
Bullish Caution is what I say - And so expect anther Drop out of this rising channel.
It would present excellent Buying opportunity and reset MACD quicker.
Aere we en-route to the New ATH ? We are getting Near but I still say the stronger probability for The CYCLE TOP ATH that is Early Q4
TRX/USDT: Consolidation Holds with Upside PotentialThe TRX/USDT market recently saw a false breakout below a key support level, followed by a rebound toward the upper boundary of the channel. On the broader timeframe, the price has been in a two-month consolidation, forming a range near the 0.2200 support, which has held firm through multiple tests.
This consistent rebound highlights the significance of the 0.2200 level, suggesting it may continue to act as a launch point for upward movement. A retest of the trendline is possible, with potential for the price to approach the channel's upper boundary. The next target is the resistance zone at 0.2370
CAKEUSDT (PancakeSwap): Sweet Gains or Stale Trade?(1/9)
Good afternoon, everyone! ☀️ CAKEUSDT (PancakeSwap): Sweet Gains or Stale Trade?
With CAKE at $2.599, is this DEX token a tasty treat or a flat pancake? Let’s flip the details! 🔍
(2/9) – PRICE PERFORMANCE 📊
• Current Price: $ 2.599 as of Mar 25, 2025 💰
• Recent Move: Consolidating $2.6-$2.8, up from $2.34, per data 📏
• Sector Trend: Crypto steady, DeFi mixed amid trade tensions 🌟
It’s a flip-flop—value might be cookin’! ⚙️
(3/9) – MARKET POSITION 📈
• Market Cap: Approx $760M (292M circulating) 🏆
• Operations: Leading BNB Chain DEX, yield farming, staking ⏰
• Trend: Deflationary model burns 102% minted, per data 🎯
Firm in DeFi, but volatility’s the spice! 🚀
(4/9) – KEY DEVELOPMENTS 🔑
• Recent Surge: Up 45% earlier in March, per X posts 🌍
• Platform Updates: Expanded NFT marketplace, per web data 📋
• Market Reaction: High volume ($230M daily), showing interest 💡
Adapting to DeFi trends, cooking up growth! 🍳
(5/9) – RISKS IN FOCUS ⚡
• Regulatory Risks: Crypto scrutiny could hit DEXs 🔍
• Market Volatility: Crypto swings could drag price down 📉
• Competition: Other DEXs like Uniswap challenge, per data ❄️
It’s a risky recipe—watch the heat! 🛑
(6/9) – SWOT: STRENGTHS 💪
• DEX Leader: Top on BNB Chain, strong user base 🥇
• Deflationary Model: Burns tokens, potentially boosts value 📊
• High Volume: $230M daily, per data, shows activity 🔧
Got a sweet spot in DeFi! 🏦
(7/9) – SWOT: WEAKNESSES & OPPORTUNITIES ⚖️
• Weaknesses: Price volatility, regulatory fears 📉
• Opportunities: DeFi adoption, new features like lending 📈
Can it rise or get burned? 🤔
(8/9) – POLL TIME! 📢
CAKE at $2.599—your take? 🗳️
• Bullish: $3+ soon, DeFi booms 🐂
• Neutral: Steady, risks balance gains ⚖️
• Bearish: $2 drops, market sours 🐻
Chime in below! 👇
(9/9) – FINAL TAKEAWAY 🎯
CAKE’s $2.599 price reflects consolidation, with strengths in its platform and deflationary model, but risks from market volatility and competition persist. DCA-on-dips could be a strategy to average in over time, banking on long-term growth. Gem or bust?
Hash Ribbon Buy Signal + CHoCH Structure and Holding Equilibrium
💥 The Hash Ribbon indicator has flashed a buy signal for the first time in 8 months. On the chart, we see a clear CHoCH (Change of Character) and price holding above the Equilibrium level — adding confluence for a bullish setup.
Chart Highlights:
- Key support at 85,185 USDT (PDL zone).
- Parabolic SAR & EMA trendlines are confirming bullish bias.
- Resistance near 88,000–89,000 USDT could trigger short-term sell-offs.
Conclusion:
If BINANCE:BTCUSDT.P holds above the PWH level, momentum may push it toward the 90K zone. Bulls still in control — for now.
BTC/USD – Bearish Rejection, Targeting SupportChart Analysis:
BTC/USD is trading within a descending channel, showing a bearish trend.
Price recently tested the resistance zone but faced rejection.
A strong sell signal is indicated, suggesting a move towards the support level around $79,877.
If price breaks below support, further downside is possible.
Trading Plan:
Sell below resistance with a target at support.
Watch for confirmation signals before entering a position.
If price breaks above resistance, a trend reversal could be possible.
SOLANA (SOLUSD): Bullish Reversal Confirmed
It looks like Solana is ready to return to a bullish trend.
We see multiple strong price action confirmations after
a test of a significant daily support.
The price formed the ascending triangle on that, and violated
both its neckline and a resistance line of a falling wedge pattern.
Looks like the market can reach 180 level easily soon.
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