Magic crystal ball on Bitcoin!Nobody can predict the future, really? I try on Bitcoin.
Just played a little around with Tradingview features.
Bitcoin has most recently broken the important support zone, which it is a clear confirmation that bear get the better of bulls on the long-term.
However, as usual, Bitcoin might underwent bullish correction before plummeting further.
We will see. Don't take this TA too seriously.
Crystalball
ETH Resistance TestETH holding up the best of the big 3 as we are looking to test recent highs and breakout for continuation.
The hourly chart is a potential cup and handle pattern with the inability to break resistance on the right side, and healthy consolidation before a potential breakout.
Currently in a position from this morning after trading it yesterday and looking to see $320+.
Little resistance until $330 after this level.
A loss of the hourly higher lows would be a short term red flag. Watching correlations to BTC and looking for a bounce to help break that $320 resistance.
Daily chart has changed the trend for the bulls yesterday, like LTC did 2 days ago.
LTC Hourly Oversold BounceBulls holding recent lows and seeing an hourly oversold bounce with a strong correlation to ETH this morning.
We did not see 4 hour RSI levels hit oversold so we are cautious this could be a short term bounce before another leg down.
Stop losses at break even as the bounce gets some breathing room is ideal for protection.
While not as weak as ETH, the daily chart has certainly been in control of the bears over the last week with all the attention on BTC all time highs.
I played ETH on this hourly oversold bounce due to RSI levels, but if LTC 4 hour RSI were to get oversold, I would likely play here on another leg down.
Let's Take Friday's Market Drop Into Perspective...Yes. The Dow dropped about 400 points and the S&P 500 dropped about 55 points on Friday. As bad as it sounds and feels, let's take Fridays market drop into perspective.
Since 2012, the SPY was about 125... Since July 2016, the SPY has been above 212. If you really think about this, the market action that took place on Friday was a drop in the proverbial bucket. The SPY went down about 5 points on Friday....
212 ish - See the horizontal gray line
For quite a while, the 212 level in the SPY was resistance. In July, the SPY got above the 212 level. Remember that resistance often becomes support. So that means "there is a chance" the SPY is just coming back to 212 to bounce and continue higher :) Yes. I have been called an optimist in the past...
2016 Uptrend Line - See the upward sloping green line
The beginning of this line is back in February of 2016 when the SPY was about 180 ish. No one knew this line would exist back in February. It wasn't until the end of June that we got the second bottom, around 198 ish, that allowed anyone to see this line take shape. Let me make a quick point here. Please notice that the February bottom occurred very close to the "181.0 ish" line that was drawn on this chart because it was a level that was resistance and became support. The late June bottom also occurred very close to the "198.50 ish" line that was also a level that was resistance and became support.
With all that said, it is possible the SPY will come back to this green uptrend line before it is ready to turn back higher. If that is what will happen, you can expect to see 209 ish on the SPY. That would be another drop of about the same magnitude as we saw on Friday. It may not happen in one day again but the SPY could get down there. If you are with me in my line of thinking, please notice there is a resistance line that became support in that area. It is labeled "208 ish" on the chart.
Below the Horizontal 212 ish line & Below the 2016 Uptrend Line
Let's just say the SPY gets below these two areas and just keeps dropping. You can continue to look at past levels of resistance that became support. Those levels may give you an idea where the market could turn around.
Don't panic. Take each day as it comes. Learn to gauge the market's future potential on the market's past. Horizontal or sloping is your choice.
There are many opportunities being created for long only investors. The drop that is creating long opportunities is in itself an opportunity for those willing to short.
Phidias' Cypher -- How BTC works since 2014Above chart screwed up by update, fixed version:
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A way to predict not just time and price of the next bottom but also the target of the bounce to follow, you've asked for? Well there you have it!
I have been trading this phenomenon for a few months on smaller timeframes already and it turned out my orders in January weren't that poorly placed either. Waiting with bated breath on whether it's going to play out once again today!
On the right you can see the path BTC is going to take if it cannot break out of this matryoshka in June, riding down the channel on another and possibly even a third wave, eventually coming to a halt at the cross of channel's and history's strongest support, the $50-$60 zone.
First calculation: target of correction
Second calculation: next bottom
Phi = golden ratio conjugate (0.61803)
[Prediction] Now -- 2014-08-21 08:15Quick n dirty because my tab got closed twice and it's already going up (thanks Ob--Opera gestures) q_q
15h consolidation cluster succeeding last low, preceding correction no2, which, in turn, is preceding "Beautifull Hed and Shouders" idea, followed by last impulse.
Waves could be completely different, targets and pivot times shouldn't.
Will post analysis if anyone cares, it's just waaay too messy at the moment. Therefore, pure chart.
2920 CNY ~ $485 (Bitstamp, approximately)
2560 CNY ~ $420
LTC: refer to time lines to open/close positions.