BTCUSD: Market is sideways...I think cryptocurrencies are likely to remain range bound, which means short term traders are mainly in control, while long term players await for fundamentals to evolve favorably to position themselves. Overall bullish bias, with weekly sellers exhausted and very few reasons to get momentum in any direction.
I'd stay away from this market for now, my interest will gravitate back towards it by the time MtGox creditors receive their $BTC, or after ETFs or cryptocurrency trading hit proper exchanges like Nasdaq, etc.
Fundamentals are bullish, but lacking to provide the backbone needed for a long term advance, and catalysts aren't there yet, for a move to the downside so the market will remain sideways, hurting the most people possible in every swing...
With BTC being designated a commodity by the SEC, over time, we might see it be treated like gold is in the US. I think over time, as people are shaken out by the potential shake out decline that hordes of MtGox hodlers rushing to sell at exchanges might bring, would cause enough of a negative sentiment extreme to form a long term bottom we could buy, eventually. Patience, time at mode analysis points to a long sideways downwards drift until May-June 2019, which aligns with these developments panning out.
Good luck navigating these murky waters, if you try and do so.
Ivan Labrie.
Ctfc
BTCUSD: UpdateSideways action here...I'm waiting for fundamentals to evolve, the chart shows mixed signals that could develop into both a downtrend or an uptrend with equal chance...a bit leaning towards uptrend due to the long term chart, and also the poor follow through to the downside recently. Other than that, I don't yet have a good enough low risk setup here, so, I chose to wait in cash for now. Keep an eye out for the dates on chart.
I can think of a few possibilities, a bullish scenario would be if suddenly the SEC approves the Winkledudes ETF, which could result in everyone forgetting about the China regulatory crackdown risks, and cause a massive short squeeze rally. A bearish scenario would be if we don't get any new positives, and China confirms eventually that they are banning everything, and we see an increase in oversight everywhere, with maybe the CTFC and the SEC making US investors' life hard. The timing for this to unfold will be slow and painful, probably, since China won't make any official remarks, or at least it is unlikely to do so, before 1 month after the end of the Communist party congress, which takes place during October.
Let's wait and see...
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.