Silver-led profit-taking weighing on goldGold reached a fresh record high above USD 3,050 an ounce before some end-of-week profit-taking, led by silver and platinum, helped trigger another, so far shallow, correction. The recent rally has pushed the price of a standard 400-ounce (12.4 kg) gold bar—held by central banks globally—above USD 1,200,000, a tenfold increase since the start of the 21st century. Beyond reinforcing gold’s status as a long-term buy-and-hold asset, this surge reflects growing global instability, which has fueled strong demand for safe havens like gold and, to some extent, also silver.
Since the November 2022 low, gold has rallied by around 80%—a phenomenal performance by an asset often criticized by Warren Buffett, famously calling it an unproductive asset, with his argument being that gold does not generate income, unlike stocks, bonds, or real estate, which can produce dividends, interest, or rental income.
While managed money accounts have been net sellers during the past seven weeks, reducing their net long by 5.2 million ounces to 18.2 million, potentially signalling a short-term peak, asset managers and other more long-term-focused investors have increased total holdings across exchange-traded funds by 2.9 million ounces to 86.2 million—still a far cry from the pre-US rate hike peak at 106.8 million ounces—highlighting plenty of room for additional demand should the underlying trends continue to support. Read more in our latest gold update here.
Technical analysis suggests that gold’s short-term peak is around USD 3,100, potentially followed by a period of consolidation before a renewed attempt toward our year-end target of USD 3,300 per ounce. After three failed attempts, last year’s breakout above USD 2,074 confirmed the completion of a cup and handle formation, developed over a 13-year period (2011–2024). Using the distance from the cup’s bottom (large box) to the handle’s top (small box), the technical target is USD 3,100.
